IS OSH* FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?
by J.C. ANDRÉINRS Scientific DirectorateFrance
IPTS – Seville – Spain
* Occupational Safety and Health at work
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Summary
Efficient prevention technologies are few and far between, and rarely infallible. Account taken of this context, the question that arises, if total resignation is excluded, is one seeking solutions, ways of sharing and mutualisation and, in short, finding ways forward that allow a degree of confidence to be restored between all the actors of work.
In this respect, we need to anticipate more and more on the ways of preservating health and safety of workers : this demand linked to the mission of OSH institutes leads to the development of forecasting activities in order to "think the future" or to project the long term into the present, the rule being to imagine "all" the hypotheses.
IPTS – September 2006
Several groups at EU level are involved in this general activity ( French National expertises, PEROSH members, Topic Centre "Risk Observatory" acting for the Bilbao Agency,....).The aims of such projects are encouraging initiative ahead of its time, a carrier of collective changes at work accepted (able) by the social body. This means making the experiment "visible", routing them in professional practices and recreating the vision that they carry.
First results will be presented linked to the analysis of "heavy trends" which can modify the workers environment and which lead to a more holistic approach of the OSH system. But, the author will also present some constraints induced by the nature of the methodology in use ( to a critical retrospective of the prospective !), interdisciplinary and quality of the expertises, weakness of the connections with innovators, return to practices and the work reality,....
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Prevention participates in a myth, in a pool of sense
and traditional values that have determined a set of
practices and social values… And tomorrow ?
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ROLE OF OSH INSTITUTES
OSH is a representation field of science and technologyused through non excitemental ways, non excluding pro-cesses, emotional for its trusty return to the world of work for improving working conditions.
Use of scientific knowledge
Collective approaches
OSH Institutes are ETHICAL organizations : associationbetween knowledge and society leading to a better wellbeing at work.
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EFFECTS ON OSH INSTITUTES
Responsibility
Independence (political choices, private contracts, …)
Alert on weak-signals
Need for change (avoid dogma…)
Complexity
Interdependences
Anticipation
Debattable use of science (Human control, genetics, nanotechnologies, …)
Irreversible choices (GMO’s, Nuclear plants, globalisation, …)
Time pressure : medias, innovation, employment, financial performance, …)
How to advise stakeholders
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Independence – « neutrality »
How to explore weak signals
Prospective, forecasting, anticipation
Relationship between science, society at work and OSH
New methodologies for exploring long term effects
Evaluation
Pro-active role in the definition of a more appropriate model for the society at work ?
Knowledge of the social, economical, political conditions in order to optimize pro-active actions.
How to maintain OSH Institutes legitimacy
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No potential
Any force is able to displace the spherical objet
Positive potential Great instability
Negative potentialLarge activation energy in order to go ouside the energy trap
Closed systemInvisibility from outside of any internal actions
Different situations forms
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Appearance of new risks (which were partly masked by other priorities) of a complex nature
Fear of the very long term effects Shift from a production society to a leisure and / or
information society / knowledge society Growing individualism Change to the relationship with work Social acceptance of risks Change of time scales (from centuries to months…) Complexity Confidence Ageing
WORRYING TRENDS
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NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Transversal (information technology present
everywhere).
Combinational (e.g.: information technology useless
in its present state in a device).
Contagious (irrigation of neighbouring technologies).
Local innovationsand
brake on major changes
Large technological ruptures
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Causal system
Retroactive loop system
Recursive system (e.g. ESB, etc.)
PROBLEM OF TIME BASES / SCHEDULES TO RETAIN THE CONFIDENCE OF THE PARTNERS OF ENTERPRISES
ANTICIPATION SO AS TO REDUCE THE GAPS BETWEEN THE COMPLEX ASPIRATIONS OF SOCIETY AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THE FIRM
PREVENTION
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Risk perception• dread• managerial incompetence• future risk• blame
Risk perception• dread• managerial incompetence• future risk• blame
Physical consequencesIndividual• follow-up desired• political involvement• intended actionsSocial• group mobilization
Physical consequencesIndividual• follow-up desired• political involvement• intended actionsSocial• group mobilization
Physical consequences- human- environment- place (EU, other,…)- magnitude of the damage- …
Physical consequences- human- environment- place (EU, other,…)- magnitude of the damage- …
Media coverage-number of new stories- durations- half-life of coverage
Media coverage-number of new stories- durations- half-life of coverage
Societal impact- socio-economic- politic- employment- citizen
Societal impact- socio-economic- politic- employment- citizen
Social amplification of risks
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TROUBLES IN THE
ANTICIPATION SYSTEM LINKED
WITH RESEARCH
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Different steps of translation viewed by the researcher (direct sense)
WORLDTranslation
Laboratory Researcher
Translation
Confined / protected research
Single « manipulable »
Subjects causality
The feedback ?
Laboratisation of the World ?
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LACK IN ANTICIPATION FROM
OSH RESEARCH
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Changes in times of OSH recognitions linked with MSD
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MSD publications per year from Medline linked with prevention
0
20
40
60
80
100
Years
Pu
bli
cati
on
s /
year
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ACTIONS IN OSH
FORECASTING
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Topic Center « Risk observatory »
Methodology Start 2007 ?
PEROSH Emerging issues ; under progress
National level (EU Level) ; under progress
nano technologies ICT working conditions changes (F)
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11
Group project
Emerging risks
Factual data
Search for the keyvariables
Selection of the principal keyVariables - themes
Regulation
Report
Benchmarking
Seminar+ report
22 nn……….
Political choices(outside forecasting project)
Group project Report
Appraisal
Scenarios
General OSH forecasting methodology
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11
FIVE
STATEMENTSThe facts
22
33
44
55
Increase complexity of the world of work
Better knowledge of social perception of risks
Overlapping of fields of interest : work / environment / public health
ConsequencesParadigm of action breakdown
- from causal to heuristic- interdisciplinarity- from mastering of risks to precautionary principle- importance of regulations in the future (from regulation to advice) ?
Increase of anticipation- « sentinel » network : emerging risks- prevention at the conception stage- networking- better association with the world of work
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What form of work will emerge in the future ?What form of prevention ?How is the gap between the community and the individual to be narrowed ?What are the effects of social alienation on occupational risks ?
Long-term effects on health induced by new technologies .
Complexity and multifactoriality ?
How is information which is both easily perceived and informative to be delivered ?
How can confidence in the partners involved in a company be re-established ?
Etc...
ANTICIPATIONQUESTIONS WHICH HAVE TO BE SOLVED
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« Knowledge of the real is a light
that always shines somewhere in
the shadows »
G. BACHELARD