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Is the drinks industry damaging democracy as well as health?
Dr Nick Sheron, FRCPRoyal College of Physicians Representative to the EU Alcohol and Health
Forum
Calling Time on Europe's Alcohol Problem, European Parliament, Brussels,
24 April 2013
Liver deaths in my unit in Southampton, most of the increase is alcohol related
Nick Sheron, unpublished data
BulgariaFinlandHungaryRomaniaUnitedKingdom
AustriaFranceItalyPortugalSpain
GreeceIrelandNetherlandsNorwaySweden
BelgiumCroatiaCzechRepublicDenmarkGermanyPoland
WHO – HFA data
Changes in liver death rates in Europe
Linear regression of open source data, WHO-HFA
64% of the variation in EU liver mortality can be explained by differences in population level consumption of alcohol.
R 2 = 0.64
Brandish & Sheron 2010
ONS data, N Sheron Clinical Medicine 2010
Beer
Vodka
1992
Increasing wealth,Decreasing relative priceDifferent retailers
ONS data, decennial supplements 1921-2001, N Sheron
Taxation v Minimum Unit Price (MUP)
Taxation MUP
Impact on all drinks Impact only cheapest drinks
Impacts on pubs / bars No Impact on pubs / bars
Impact proportional to consumption Impact targeted to heavy drinkers
Taxation v Minimum Unit Price (MUP)
Taxation MUP
Revenue to government Revenue to industry
Impact on all drinks Impact only cheapest drinks
Impacts on pubs / bars No Impact on pubs / bars
Scotland introduced MUP because they were unable to increase taxation
The Scottish Nationalist Party did so AS A MANIFESTO POLICY COMMITMENT
and subsequently won a landslide election victory
Weekly alcohol consumption in 381 liver patients in Southampton
Median consumption in patients with
alcohol related liver disease is
equivalent of 4 bottles of vodka / week
Half drink more…
Univ of Southampton data, N Sheron
The actual impact of MUP on patients with liver disease (n= 143)
The actual impact of MUP on patients with liver disease (n= 143)
Univ of Southampton data, N Sheron
Minimum unit price is an exquisitely targeted measure
0%
10%20%
30%40%
50%
60%70%
80%90%
100%
% population % alcoholconsumed
Moderate drinkers
Hazardous drinkers
Harmful drinkers
One third of profitability comes from harmful drinkers
Three quarters of profitability comes from hazardous and harmful drinkers
UK Dept of Health data
The Pareto principle
1/5 of consumers consume 4/5 of any product
0%
10%20%
30%40%
50%
60%70%
80%90%
100%
% population % alcoholconsumed
Moderate drinkers
Hazardous drinkers
Harmful drinkers
X Minimum unit price
targeted at heavy consumers who buy the cheapest alcohols