The Environment InstituteWhere ideas grow

Professor Graeme Hugo

Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?

Outline of Presentation IntroductionPopulation and Water: A Global PerspectiveSouth Australia’s Contemporary Population• Growth• Composition• DistributionPopulation and WaterPopulation Planning and Policy in South AustraliaConclusion

Population and Water: The Supply/Demand Equation

Supply Demand

Rainfall Population Number

Runoff Population Characteristics

Capture Population Distribution

Storage Use per capita

Recycling Other Uses

Pipelines - Agriculture

Desalination - Industry

Global Population: 2009Source: U.N. 2009, p.1

Major Area 1950 1975 2009 2050World 2,529 4,061 6,829 9,150More developed regions 812 1,047 1,233 1,275Less developed regions 1,717 3,014 5,596 7,875

Least developed countries 200 357 835 1,672Other less developed countries 1,517 2,657 4,761 6,202

Africa 227 419 1,010 1,998Asia 1,403 2,379 4,121 5,231Europe 547 676 732 691Latin America and Caribbean 167 323 582 729Northern America 172 242 348 448Oceania 13 21 35 51

Population (millions)

World Population by Region at the Turn of Three Centuries: 1800, 1900 and 2000

Source: U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision

Projected Population Change by Region, 2005 - 2050

Source: C.Haub, 2005 World Population Data Sheet (2005)

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 31

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 98

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 99

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 102

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103

Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 128

At A Global Level(World Water Assessment Programme 2009)

• Need to progress toward zero population growth as soon as possible

• Need to better manage water systems to achieve development objectives and sustain development

• Decision making on water seeking synergies and selecting appropriate trade offs

Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2008; Population Reference Bureau 2007 and 2008; ABS 2008

Country/Region Year Rate Per Annum

World 2007-08 1.2

LDCs 2007-08 1.4

MDCs 2007-08 0.5

Europe and the New Independent States 2007-08 0.4

North America 2007-08 0.9

ESCAP Region 2007-08 1.0

Indonesia 2007-08 1.1

Australia 2007-08 1.7

South Australia 2007-08 1.1

Australia and South Australia: Rate of Population Growth per Annum, 1947 to 2008

Source: ABS 1983 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

Note: Data are for Calendar Years

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Perc

ent

Year

South AustraliaAustralia

Projections of the Population of Australia and South Australia

Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008 and Planning SA

ABS 2005 ABS 2008 ABS 2005 ABS 2008 2M in2051

2006 Actual 20.7 20.7 1.57 1.57 1.572007 Actual 21.0 21.0 1.58 1.58 1.582021 Projected 23.9 25.6 1.63 1.81 1.732051 Projected 28.0 34.2 1.58 2.16 2.01

Australia

Series B Series B

South Australia

Population Growth is a Function of:

• Mortality• Fertility• Migration

South Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2008

Source: ABS 1997 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Year

Num

ber

Net Migration

Natural Increase

Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2007Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins

Expectation of Life at BirthMales Females

1947 66.1 70.62007 79.0 83.7

Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2007

Source: ABS

Year Males Females

1901-1910 21.2 23.7

1970-1972 23.0 28.3

2007 31.4 35.2

Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with DisabilitiesSource: ABS 2005

Birth cohort crude prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30) among males between 1991 and 2008

Source: SA Department of Health

MALES.

0

10

20

30

40

50

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Year of survey

Prop

ortio

n ob

ese

(BM

I>30

)

1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X)1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII)Pre 1925 (GI Gen)

FEMALES

0

10

20

30

40

50

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Year of survey

Prop

ortio

n ob

ese

(BM

I>30

)

1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X)1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII)Pre 1925 (GI Gen)

NB: Insufficient numbers for Gen Y (1991-2003) and GI Gen (2005-2008) cohorts resulted in exclusion from analysis.

FertilityAustralia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2007

Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

Total Fertility Rate(a): States and TerritoriesSource: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends

2007-8 COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

Births 285,653Deaths 142,039Natural Increase 145,617Net Migration 213,715Population Increase 1.71 percent

Australia: A Country of Immigration

• 24 percent born overseas• 26 percent Australia-born with an

overseas-born parent(s)• 809,628 persons temporarily present at

30/6/08

• 149,365 incoming permanent settlers in 2007-08

• 56,575 “onshore” settlers in 2007-08

Record Australian Migration 2007-8

• 206,135 permanent migrants• Net overseas migration: 235,900• 61 percent of population increase• 457s – 110,570• Students – 278,194• WHM – 154,148• Total Temporary Residents – 542,902

Intended State and Territory Destinations ofPermanent Additions

Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends; DIAC 2008

1996-97% % 000

New South Wales 43.7 31.7 65.2Victoria 21.7 25.2 52.0Queensland 15.8 19.3 39.7South Australia 3.8 6.3 13.0Western Australia 11.6 14.0 28.8Other (a) 2.3 2.8 5.8Australia (b) 100.0 100 205.9

(a) Other includes Tasmania, NT, ACT and Other Territories(b) Total includes those for w hich state and territory destinations w ere not know n

2007-08

South Australia: Net Overseas Migration, 1979 to 2008Source: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,00019

79

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Year Ending 30 June

Pers

ons

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Per c

ent

Net Overseas Migration toSA% of National Intake

Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to Whether They are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or

Other Migrants, 2006-07Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues

Changes in Composition of the Population

• Ageing• Shifting ethnic composition• Socio-economic composition• Education levels

South Australia:Age-Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006

Source: ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Age

Gro

up

Persons

2001 2006

Males Females

Wittert, 2006

South Australia: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population,2006 and Projected 2031

Source: ABS 2006 Census and ABS 2005 Projections

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Age

Gro

up

Persons

2006 2031

Males Females

Structural Ageing:South Australia: Change by Age: 2004- 2010, 2004- 2020

Source: ABS Projections 2005, Series B

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0 5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85+

Age

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Ch

an

ge 2004-2010 (1.57 m)

2004-2020 (1.62 m)

Structural Ageing:South Australia: Change by Age: 2006-2021, 2006-2031

Source: ABS Projections 2008, Series B, based on Jackson 2004

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85+

Age

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Ch

an

ge 2006-2021 (1.81 m)

2006-2031 (1.95 m)

The Demography of Ageing in Australia Over the Next 25 Years

• Numbers aged 65+ will double

• Proportion of population aged 65+ will almost double

• Characteristics of older population will change

• Where older people live will change

The Challenge

• The closing gap between the numbers of working age and dependent aged populations.

• Greatly increased numbers in the older age groups with high levels of demand in high cost areas of health and aged care services.

Meeting the ChallengeStrategies for Baby Boomers• Increased Age at Retirement• Increased saving and preparation for retirement• Reduced obesity and improved health

Strategies for the Rest of the Working Age Groups• Increased productivity• Increased workforce participation

Strategies in the Health and Aged Care Sectors• Improved efficiency• Preventative health• Better models of funding and provision

• Part of the strategy will require at least maintaining the size of the workforce or slightly increasing it at the same time as the older population is increasing rapidly

The Population and Water Issue

“ That Australia is a dry continent is an intrinsic part of our national ethos, and the present distribution of population is in large measure related to the supply of water and the disposal of effluents.

….The availability of water constitutes one of the major factors in determining the size and distribution of Australia’s population”

CSIRO 1973 – quoted in National Population Inquiry 1975 p 719-720

The Mismatch Between Water and Population

(Nix 1988, 72)

Far North

Australia

(%)

Southern

Australia

(%)

Population 2 82

Potentially Arable Land 4 65

Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27

By far the largest volumes of uncommitted water are in northern Australia and Western Tasmania. In the

most heavily populated regions of south western and south eastern Australia surface waters are

committed to a high degree and the consequences of climate change are potentially most serious

Pittock and Nix 1986

Australian Rainfall 2006

Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006

Australian rainfall 2006

% of Population

2006 2006 population Growth ratePercent of Land Area

Below average 89.6 17,749,462 0.98 38Average 7.23 1,432,090 0.70 18Above average 3.17 628,865 -1.57 44

How Has Australia Dealt with the Water/Population Issue?

The twentieth century solution to supplying water to a rapidly increasing population with increasing per capita consumption levels was an engineering one ….

“There was a comforting belief that there was always sufficient supplies available and all that was required was application of engineering skills to deliver them” (Troy, 2008,188)

In South Australia(Fenner, 1929, 118)

…water supply, combined with and dependent on rainfall, is the dominating geographical control of population in the State. All that has been done in the face of adverse conditions provide an excellent example of the way in which man (“nature’s insurgent Son”) has in the first place adapted himself to the geographic conditions, and in the second place, by the exercise of his ingenuity and skill, has turned on his environment and shaped it to his will”

Growth of Population and Reservoir Capacity, 1986-2006

Source: ABS and SA Water; Fenner, 1929, p.118. (Hugo, Forthcoming)

In my view we are faced with a dilemma. Firstly in the short to medium term we need to increase population as part of our strategy to offset the effects of ageing of the baby boomers. Secondly water and other environmental considerations indicate the need to work toward a stable population with a balance of working and non working age groups in the medium to long term.

STATE STRATEGIC PLAN POPULATION TARGETS (2007)

Target 1.22: Total Population “Increase South Australia’s population to 2 million by 2050, rather than the projected pop’n

decline. Interim target of 1.64 million by 2014”. Revised to 2 million in 2032.

Target 1.23: Interstate Migration “Reduce net loss to interstate to zero by 2010 with a positive inflow from 2010-14”

Target 1.24: Overseas Migration “Match SA’s share of international migrants to Australia with the State’s share of the overall

national pop’n over the next 10 years. Net overseas gain to be 8,500 by 2014”.

Target 1.25: Fertility “Maintain at TFR of 1.7” Target 5.9: Regional Populations “Maintain and develop viable regional population levels for sustainable communities. Keep

share at 18 percent.”

South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained

2005-6 2006-7 2007-82006 1,558,230 2007 1,584,513 2008 1,601,8212011 1,629,624 2011 1,651,464 2011 1,655,7562021 1,782,375 2021 1,831,481 2021 1,849,0022031 1,949,444 2030 2,010,215 2029 2,019,7162034 2,002,554 2031 2,031,122 2031 2,064,8032041 2,132,173 2041 2,252,523 2041 2,305,7892050 2,311,228 2050 2,472,346 2050 2,546,635

South Australia’s Population Policy• First in the nation to initiate a population policy• Strengths

– See population as a key element in economic policy

– consideration of each demographic process– Recognition of the short term impact of the ageing

of the baby boom– basis for community discussion

• Weaknesses– Targets without any empirical rationale– needs to more explicitly build in environmental

factors– Need for more regional community and local level

consideration– Too Adelaide focussed

The 30 Year Plan for Adelaide – Population Policies

• 560,000 people over 30 years added to the population

• 258,000 dwellings• Actively encourage inward interstate

migration and reduce outward migration of working age people

• Retain “regional migration status” to attract a higher proportion of skilled migrants

The 30 Year PlanStrengths• An integrated plan – much needed basis for discussion• Adopts a functional definition of Adelaide regionWeaknesses• What is the empirical basis of the 560,000 population

increase over the 30 Years?• At least implicit that most growth will be of young working

families• Concern at whether limited high quality agricultural land

will be protected

The Need for Dialogue Rather than Debate

• Need to recognise that there are environmentalconstraints on population in Australia and factor them into all planning.

• Population planning and environmental planning shouldnot be totally separate activities

• Need to better understand these constraints and howpopulation and environment are inter-related.

• Little is known about this complex relationship and thereis a need for an evidence base to inform policy.

• Need for environmental science and population scienceto work together in teaching, research and policy.

• The objective of population policy should be to facilitate sustainability.

• The discussion about population and water has been dominated by interest groups and single dimensional solutions.

• The need is for a comprehensive consideration of economic, environmental, social, cultural and demographic elements of sustainability.

• The policy must be evidence-based and the result of significant and representative consultation across the community.

• Population policy must not be a substitute for sound economic, environmental, social inclusion and good governance policies but should support them.

• Population, Society, Economy and Environment are related to each other in complex ways. Population policy is not a “sliver bullet” solution.

• There will be trade-offs and compromises to derive the best outcome for the community

Conclusion• Population and water issues in (South) Australia

are manageable.• However immediate action and a conceptual

shift will be necessary.• The need is for less confrontation and more

collaboration and co-operation to develop strategies which will work, and are in the interests of all Australians.

• There must be more and better evidence produced and wider community involvement in the discourse.

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