IS6833 Homicide Prediction 2011

Michelle Bergesch

Jeff Stahlhuth

Issue: Determine Next Homicide• Homicide: Includes murder and non-negligent

manslaughter which is the willful killing of one human being by another

• Key Considerations:– Generally independent non-related events– Too easy to jump to conclusion– Data granularity (Region, District, Ward, Zip,

Neighborhood)– Victim to Offender relationship

Causation Vs. Correlation

• Homicide Contributing Factor Assumptions:1. Economy2. Abandoned property3. Census demographics • Sex, Race, Education, Income

4. Homicide as a result of another crime5. Previous conviction type and frequency6. Felon location

Causation Vs. Correlation

1. Economy:– Presumption is bad economy = more crime– Most research is inclusive on this relationship– Available census data was from 1990

2. Abandoned Property– Presumption increased number of abandoned

properties would be used for drugs and crime– Property data organized by address not

neighborhood, required extensive

Causation Vs. Correlation

3. Census Demographics:– Needed data formatted by neighborhood– Available census data was from 1990

4. Homicide as a result of another crime– FBI expanded homicide data sort data by

relationship, sex, weapon, related crime, etc.– Related crime categories do not completely

match UCR categories

Causation Vs. Correlation

5. Previous conviction type and frequency– Strongest predictive factor to predict murders

is previous offender history (Berk)– Court case data provides frequency and timing

of previous offenses6. Felon location– Need a mechanism to identify previous

offender location (i.e. sex offender registry)– No research to support proximity of murder to

offender dwelling

What Data Was Considered?

• Missouri Census Data– http://mcdc.missouri.edu/

• St. Louis Police Dept. UCR Data– http://www.slmpd.org/

• St. Louis Circuit Court (Cases & Protective Orders)– http://www.stlcitycircuitcourt.com/circuitclerk.html– http://www.stlcitycircuitcourt.com/search.php

• Neighborhood Background Data– http://stlouis.missouri.org/neighborhoods/

• Missouri Highway Patrol UCR– http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/SAC/data_and_statistics_ucr.html

• FBI UCR Crime Statistics– http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html

• Berk Crime Prediction Tool – Univ. of Pennsylvania– http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/science-scope/in-philadelphia-predict

ion-and-probability-in-crime-patterns/3598/

What Data Was Used?

• St. Louis Police Dept. UCR Data• Neighborhood Background Data• FBI UCR Crime Statistics

Methodology

• FBI Expanded data breaks down annual homicides by contributing circumstances (Rape, Burglary, Robbery, etc.)

• Data granularity does not match standard UCR categories, however 5 crimes do match

0.2% - Rape

6.5% - Robbery

0.6% - Burglary

0.1% - Larceny-Theft

0.2% - Motor Vehicle Theft

93.4% - Other

Methodology

• FBI Expanded Data

Methodology

• Develop a holistic scoring number to predict homicides and related crime trend for each neighborhood

• Predicted Homicides (PH) – linear trend analysis of homicide rates by neighborhood.

• Predicted Crime Index (PCI)- predicted sum of projected related crimes based on reported UCR data for each neighborhood

• Report then outlines where the next homicide will be AND a related crime index.

• Patrol deployment recommendation based on sum of PH + PCI

Conclusion

• Projected Homicides by Neighborhood

NEIGHBORHOODTOTAL Murder TOTAL Rape

TOTAL ROBBERY

Burglary TOTAL

Larceny TOTAL AUTO Theft

ANCILLARY HOMICIDE PH PCI

Jeff-Vanderlou Average 11.27 0.01 4.86 0.83 0.26 0.14 6.10 11.27 17.37Mark-Twain Average 9.07 0.00 2.77 0.79 0.14 0.11 3.81 9.07 12.88Kingsway-West Average 7.93 0.01 1.56 0.59 0.08 0.07 2.32 7.93 10.25Wells-Goodfellow Average 7.87 0.02 5.14 1.08 0.24 0.10 6.59 7.87 14.46Baden Average 6.80 0.02 5.10 1.58 0.30 0.16 7.16 6.80 13.96Penrose Average 6.73 0.01 3.48 0.91 0.20 0.13 4.73 6.73 11.46Fairground Average 5.87 0.00 1.33 0.15 0.10 0.03 1.62 5.87 7.49North-Point Average 5.53 0.00 2.04 0.53 0.13 0.09 2.78 5.53 8.32O'Fallon Average 5.40 0.01 3.35 0.96 0.13 0.11 4.55 5.40 9.95Hyde-Park Average 5.00 0.00 1.35 0.56 0.08 0.07 2.05 5.00 7.05Dutchtown Average 4.87 0.03 6.93 3.67 0.46 0.14 11.23 4.87 16.10College-Hill Average 4.47 0.00 1.08 0.34 0.05 0.03 1.51 4.47 5.97Hamilton-Heights Average 4.40 0.01 2.13 0.44 0.09 0.06 2.74 4.40 7.14Walnut-Park-West Average 4.33 0.01 2.64 0.75 0.08 0.06 3.54 4.33 7.87Tower-Grove-South Average 3.67 0.00 7.40 2.41 0.67 0.21 10.69 3.67 14.36Gravois-Park Average 3.60 0.01 3.32 1.41 0.26 0.07 5.06 3.60 8.66Downtown-West Average 3.53 0.02 4.07 0.23 0.71 0.11 5.14 3.53 8.67Academy 2011 prediction 3.53 0.01 1.82 0.54 0.11 0.03 2.51 3.53 6.05Benton-Park-West Average 3.47 0.00 2.81 1.04 0.14 0.06 4.05 3.47 7.52Old-North-St.-Louis Average 3.40 0.00 1.55 0.31 0.09 0.07 2.01 3.40 5.41

Conclusion

• Resource Deployment by Neighborhood

NEIGHBORHOODTOTAL Murder TOTAL Rape

TOTAL ROBBERY

Burglary TOTAL

Larceny TOTAL AUTO Theft

ANCILLARY HOMICIDE PH PCI

Jeff-Vanderlou Average 11.27 0.01 4.86 0.83 0.26 0.14 6.10 11.27 17.37Dutchtown Average 4.87 0.03 6.93 3.67 0.46 0.14 11.23 4.87 16.10Wells-Goodfellow Average 7.87 0.02 5.14 1.08 0.24 0.10 6.59 7.87 14.46Tower-Grove-South Average 3.67 0.00 7.40 2.41 0.67 0.21 10.69 3.67 14.36Baden Average 6.80 0.02 5.10 1.58 0.30 0.16 7.16 6.80 13.96Mark-Twain Average 9.07 0.00 2.77 0.79 0.14 0.11 3.81 9.07 12.88Penrose Average 6.73 0.01 3.48 0.91 0.20 0.13 4.73 6.73 11.46Kingsway-West Average 7.93 0.01 1.56 0.59 0.08 0.07 2.32 7.93 10.25O'Fallon Average 5.40 0.01 3.35 0.96 0.13 0.11 4.55 5.40 9.95The-Greater-Ville Average 2.73 0.01 4.52 1.49 0.15 0.11 6.28 2.73 9.02Downtown-West Average 3.53 0.02 4.07 0.23 0.71 0.11 5.14 3.53 8.67Gravois-Park Average 3.60 0.01 3.32 1.41 0.26 0.07 5.06 3.60 8.66North-Point Average 5.53 0.00 2.04 0.53 0.13 0.09 2.78 5.53 8.32Downtown Average 2.07 0.01 4.75 0.33 0.91 0.16 6.16 2.07 8.23Carondelet Average 2.87 0.01 3.52 1.25 0.38 0.15 5.32 2.87 8.18Walnut-Park-West Average 4.33 0.01 2.64 0.75 0.08 0.06 3.54 4.33 7.87Benton-Park-West Average 3.47 0.00 2.81 1.04 0.14 0.06 4.05 3.47 7.52Fairground Average 5.87 0.00 1.33 0.15 0.10 0.03 1.62 5.87 7.49Central-West-End Average 1.87 0.00 3.86 0.48 0.79 0.17 5.30 1.87 7.17Hamilton-Heights Average 4.40 0.01 2.13 0.44 0.09 0.06 2.74 4.40 7.14

Thank You

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