6/30/2009

1

International Research Network for Low Carbon SocietiesCarbon Societies

LCS‐RNetS k h ld i l C b S i iStakeholders Dialogue on Low Carbon Societies

at ISAP 200926 June 

Shuzo Nishioka

Background

[To realize such long-term goals towards LCS], it is necessary to change the current socio-economic structures and transition to low-carbon societies. In so doing, there was general recognition of the

At G8 Environment Ministers Meeting, May 2008, Kobe, JapanStrong support to set-up a Low Carbon Society International Research Network (LCS-RNet) was expressed.

g g gimportance of all the countries to have a clear vision of their own low-carbon societies. [Kobe EMM Chair’s Summary]

2

6/30/2009

2

Objectives of LCS-RNet

Promote information exchange and research cooperation that covers various issues relating to l b i ti (LCS)low carbon societies (LCS).

Promote understanding of LCS dialogues between researchers and various stakeholders including policy-makers, businesses, citizens, and others to share national and sub-national visions on low carbon societies.

3

Contribute to international policy-making processes on climate change such as G8 and other high level policy processes by providing research outcomes and recommendations.

LCS Research is: Why Networking?

relatively new research field -a number of issues require research collaboration

among researchers with different disciplines.

Integration of science and technology, society, and policy,Have the overview of the state of LCS researchBetter understanding of LCS among various stakeholders, andLinkage between LCS research and policy-making processes to provide science based information

g p

That require;

Platform for research on low carbon society.

Non-binding network

Nature of LCS-RNet Lessons to be learned from each other for common approaches.Various definitions, different pathways to achieve LCS

6/30/2009

3

Researchers Meeting in Trieste, 1-2 April

Hosted by the Government of Italy23 participants from 8 countriesResearch areas/themes identifiedDiscussed the strategic planning of its activities for the next 5 years

2009 – under Italian G8 presidency

activities for the next 5 years.

G8 EMM in Siracusa, 22-24 April

1st Annual Meetingin Bologna 12 13 October

Bologna, Italy12‐13 October 2009

The G8 Ministers and senior officials supported the innovative nature of the LCS-RNet, and requested to report back its outcomes periodically.

LCS Session atG8 High Level ForumIn Trieste, 5 April

Officially announce the launch of the LCS-RNet

5

in Bologna, 12-13 October& 1st Steering Group Meeting

Hosted by Italy with the support of Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea

Stakeholder Dialogue on LCS at ISAP organised by IGESWorkshops in Asia by IGES, etc

2010 – under Canadian G8 presidencyMeeting on LCS in Germany - TBD

Participating Institutions with Government Contact Points(as of A May 2009)

Academy of Technology France

French Environment and Energy Management Agency ADEME

Institute for Sustainable Developemnt and Internatioanl Relations IDDRI

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Germany

Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change CMCC Italy

Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment ENEA

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGES Japan

N ti l I tit t f E i t l St di NIES

6

National Institute for Environmental Studies NIES

National Institute of Environmental Research NIER Korea

UK Energy Research Centre UKERC UK

6/30/2009

4

LCS‐RNet

K h l t

Participating Research Institutions and more

Participating Governments Steering Group

Key research elementsScenario and modelling, Interdisciplinary perspectives,Integration of environmental, energy, economic and social systems, Building awareness outside of the scientific community;

G8 G20Other stakeholders

Policy-maker

community;LCS in the context of sustainable development

Leapfrogging to LCS for developing countries, LCS technologies as a system including technical, social and economic infrastructures;“City” as a good determining node to realize LCS

LCS-RNet - Output

Research findings through Annual Meetings, Stakeholder Dialogues,Symposium, Research collaborations

Targets/audience

G8G20

Other researchersStakeholdersPolicy-makers

G8 processes,UNFCCC COP side events

Publications of special journal issue/bookAiming to IPCC AR5 process

6/30/2009

5

Projection of surface temperature from 1900地球シミュレータによる２１００年までの気候変化予測ー地上温度

CCSR/NIES/FRSGC

東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター

地球システム統合モデル Earth System Integrated Model:文科省革新プロジェクト Kakushin = Innovation Program (07‐12)

気候が変化すれば生態系も変化し、炭素循環が変化する。気候と生態系の相互作用も考慮して将来の地球環境変化を予測できるのが地球システム統合モデル（ESM)であり、これの高度化をはかる。

力学的植生モデル

Chemical processAerozol

Ice sheet

Stratosphere process

Land area C cycle

Land energy water cycle

Ocean circulation Marine bio-chemical process

6/30/2009

6

14[PgC/yr]

No FB

Climate stabilization requires reduction in anthropogenic CO2

emissions close to zeroInterim research findings of "Innovative" Earth System Model

Concentration of CO2

Climate stability: emission = absorption

Huge h ll t

With FB

Estimate0

14

2

Peak out in 2020-2050

↓

More than 6 degrees

challenge to reset Industrial Revolution?

Absorption Capacity decreases!

1850 22502000

0

2100

No FB

With FB

*present

FB: With FeedbackGreen: Estimate

100 years later1-3Gt

↓

Low carbon era

IPCC category 43.2-4 degrees

Deep-sea portion only

Sharing innovative nature of approach to LCS

02050 Low Carbon Society, JapanA research result  to endorse Japanese policy 

of 60‐80% reduction in 2050

Key conclusion:Key conclusion:Japan has the technological Japan has the technological potential to reduce its COpotential to reduce its CO2

emission by emission by 70% compared to the 70% compared to the 1990 level,1990 level, while satisfying the while satisfying the expected demand for energy expected demand for energy services in 2050.services in 2050.

Innovation necessary inInnovation necessary intechnological/industrial/social technological/industrial/social infrastructure policyinfrastructure policy

Prime Minister Fukuda in Congress (Jan. 2008)“..maximize Japanese environmental power, lead world transition towards Low Carbon Society…”(May 18) Japanese long-term target 60-80% reduction until 2050,

6/30/2009

7

Industry Household

Business

Passenger transport

Freight transport

0 100 200 300 400

2000

Scenario A2050

20 0

Smart consumer choices can reduce

energy consumption by as much as

(Mtoe)

Reduced energy demand

Results

70％ CO2 reduction feasible by 1% of GDP

Scenario B

Industry Household BusinessPassenger transport

Freight transport

2050by as much as 40-45%!

Coal Oil Gas

- 100 200 300 400 500 600

2000

(Mtoe)

40-45％ reduction

Equal effort by demand & supply side

一次エネルギー供給Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar/Wind

Scenario A

Scenario B

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar/Wind

Low carbon shift in primary energy

sources via introduction of

renewable energies

Use of centralized energy

Use of distributed energy

2050

2050

Example: Passenger transport sector can achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via suitable

land use & improved energy efficiency

Decline intransport volume

Change in passenger transport volume

Change in passenger transport methods

Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities')

Energy efficiency improvement

Land use・Reduction intransport volume Grid electricity

Ener

gy D

eman

d (M

toe)

increased urban density ( compact cities )

Improved energy efficiency

Hydrogen

Solar energy generation

Biomass

Natural gas

Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.) Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance due to proximity

of destination Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight

designs etc.)

E

2000(Actual figure) 2050(scenario A) 2050(scenario B)

Petroleum oil

Energy demand in 2000

6/30/2009

8

Demographic 2000 Demographic 2050

80-84 80-84

Japan: World Front Runner of Aged SocietyWhat will Japan's population be in 2020?

A MaleB Male

A FemaleB Female

20-2430-3440-4450-5460-6470-7480-84

20-2430-3440-4450-5460-6470-7480 84

-4,000 0 4,0000-4

10-14

×1,000 people-4,000 0 4,000

0-410-14

Land‐use planning and transportation Reduction strategy depend on local specification

1.50

2.00

1人あたりCO2 [t/年]

2000年

Passenger Local cities

0.00

0.50

1.00

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000人口累積 [万人]

地方

都市

大都市圏都市部

地方

郊外

・郡

部

大都

市圏

郊外

2000年

2050年

Mega cities

RuralLocal cities

population

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

人口累積 [万人]

地方

都市

大都市圏都市部 地方

郊外

・郡部

大都

市圏

郊外

1人あたりCO2 [t/年]

2000年

2050年

Cargo Freight Per Capita TransportationCO2 Emission

6/30/2009

9

500

600

max min

Technology: Projected Car CO2 Emission/km

200

250最小 最大

GasolineGasolineDieselDiesel

100

200

300

400

ell to Wheel CO2排

出原

単位

[g-CO2/km]

0

50

100

150

ィー

ゼル

車

ーゼ

ルＨ

Ｖ

ガソ

リン

車

ガソ

リン

ＨＶ

池車

（水

素）

車(ﾒ

ﾀﾉｰ

ﾙ)

池車

（水

素）

池車

（水

素）

池車

（水

素）

電気

自動

車

2排

出原

単位

[g-C

O2/km

]

EVEVHy. AugHy. Aug

FCFC

0

軽油

->Diesel ICEV

軽油

->Diesel ICEHEV

ガソリン

->Gasoline ICEV

ガソリ

ン->Gasoline ICEHEV

ガソ

リン->FP. Gas. FCHEV

ガソリ

ン->FP. Gas. FCEV

圧縮

水素->FCHEV

圧縮

水素

->FCEV

液体水

素->FCHEV

液体

水素

->FCEV

合成

ディー

ゼル

->Diesel ICEV

合成

ディ

ーゼル

->Diesel ICEHEV

メタノ

ール

->FP. MeOH FCHEV

メタ

ノール

->FP. MeOH FCEV

圧縮

水素

->FCHEV

圧縮

水素->FCEV

液体

水素

->FCHEV

液体水

素->FCEV

合成

ディーゼ

ル->Diesel ICEV

合成

ディ

ーゼル

->Diesel ICEHEV

メタ

ノール

->FP. MeOH FCHEV

メタ

ノール

->FP. MeOH FCEV

圧縮

水素

->FCHEV

圧縮

水素

->FCEV

合成

ディー

ゼル

->Diesel ICEV

合成デ

ィー

ゼル

->Diesel ICEHEV

メタ

ノール

->FP. MeOH FCHEV

メタ

ノール

->FP. MeOH FCEV

圧縮

水素

->FCHEV

圧縮

水素

->FCEV

液体水

素->FCHEV

液体

水素

->FCEV

石油

火力

->BEV

LNG火

力->BEV

石炭

火力

->BEV

平均電

源構

成->BEV

バイ

オマ

ス発電

->BEV

石油

火力->圧

縮水

素->FCHEV

石油火力

->圧

縮水

素->FCEV

LNG火力->圧

縮水

素->FCHEV

LNG火

力->圧

縮水素

->FCEV

石炭

火力->圧縮

水素

->FCHEV

石炭火

力->圧

縮水

素->FCEV

平均

電源

構成->圧

縮水

素->FCHEV

平均電

源構

成->圧縮

水素

->FCEV

バイ

オマ

ス発

電->圧

縮水

素->FCHEV

バイ

オマ

ス発

電->圧

縮水

素->FCEV

圧縮

水素

->FCHEV

圧縮水

素->FCEV

液体

水素

->FCHEV

液体

水素

->FCEV

副生水素電力バイオマス石炭天然ガス原油

W

ディ

ディ

ー ガ ガ

燃料

電池

燃料

電池

車

燃料

電池

燃料

電池

燃料

電池 電

副生水素 電力ﾊﾞｲｵﾏｽ 天然ガス原油

Well

to W

heel C

O2

※ＨＶ：ハイブリッド車の省略形　　 　　　　※電力：日本の平均電源構成※燃料電池車：回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収　　※水素：圧縮水素を仮定

Technology development,socio-economic change Forecasting Reference

f

2050 Low Carbon Society Research 2050 Low Carbon Society Research ProjectProjectBackcasting from future normative Backcasting from future normative worldworld

http://2050.nies.go.jp

L

projected by historically trend

gfuture world

Service demand change

by changing social

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredPolicy

intervention and Investment

al p

ress

ure

ed int

erve

ntion

socio-techno innovationsto realize visions

“Visions” of

2020 20502000

Long-term target year

Back-casting

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions intervention policy and measures

Envi

ronm

enta

Checkingyear(2025)

Requ

ire

future society

Japan Target 70% reduction

50% reductionsIn the world

6/30/2009

10

Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

LCS visions, two LCS visions, two different but likely different but likely

future societiesfuture societiesy

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/Cap/year GDP growth 1%/Cap/year GDP growth

Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.

Akemi Imagawa

Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.

http://2050.nies.go.jpPopulation dyna

Technology deexpert judgm

e

Arc

Archive da

Socio-

Macro-econo

productivity c

Infrastructurresidential/n

Transition Model Snap shot model

Archive datC

ost

Scenario, Storyline

Household production/Lifestyle model (identify effects of consumer behavior considering change of age/type of household/ environment-oriented preferences on energy service demand, transportation trip demand by econometric methods and estimate

Element models for Element models for Japan low carbon society project developed by Prof. Matsuoka (Kyoto Univ.)Japan low carbon society project developed by Prof. Matsuoka (Kyoto Univ.)

amic m

odel (cohort model including birth/dea

evelopment schedule for energy use, product

nt)

chive data set of Socio-econ

ata set of Technology devel

-economic scenario, Inter

omic m

odel (econometric m

odel for paramete

change, IS balance and calculation of BAU sc

re/building dynamic m

odel (econometric/engi

nonresidential housing, construction and retire

Trajectory

ta set of Energy Balance, Enviro

Passenger/Freight Transportation demand model (parameter estimate of trip generation, modal share using statistics on person trip, traffic flow, freight flow and others. Service demand estimation assuming technology and behavior change)

Energy supply and demand balance model (adjusting seasonal/daily energy balance of electricity, heat, and hydrogen supply and demand considering infrastructure development)

impacts of intervention scenarios)

ath, inter-regional/national migration)

tion, and consumption (R

&D plan,

nomic change

opment and diffusion

rvention scenario

er estimate of supply-side potential

cenario)

ineering bottom-up approach for

ement of energy supply facilities)

onmental Burden, and

Energy technology bottom-up model (technology selection of energy supply, conversion, consumption using econometric/engineering/management methods)

General equilibrium model (investigate feasibility, economic impacts considering general equilibrium of approx. 40 services including energy at service and labor market with support of other models)

http://2050.nies.go.jp

6/30/2009

11

Sharing common field of interest

Low Carbon Growth/Development

Projection CO2 Emission

20

25

20

25ＣＯ２Emission (GtC)

22.1%31.8%

2004

USOthers

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

5

10

15

先進国

開発途上国

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

5

10

15

Non-Annex I

18.1%

12.8%6.0%4.8%

4.3%

2004GlobalCO2emission

７２0Gｔ-C

（２６５Gｔ-CO2）

Ｃｈｉｎａ

EU 15Russia

Japan

India＊Cool Earth 50Annex I

京都議定書第１約束期間後（２０１３年以降）の次期枠組みについては、

・京都議定書を批准していないアメリカや、・京都議定書を批准していないアメリカや、

・京都議定書上、削減約束のない中国、インドなどの主要排出途上国にも・京都議定書上、削減約束のない中国、インドなどの主要排出途上国にも

最大限の排出削減努力を促す実効ある枠組みを構築する必要がある。

出典： Kainuma et al., 2002: Climate Policy Assessment, Springer, p.64.

年EU 15Russia

エネルギー・経済統計要覧 (2007年版）より環境省作成

9

What are the international implications of LCS?Acceleration of Technology Essential to Realize a Low

Carbon Society

1 25 0 65Past

Energy intensity Carbon intensity（excluding CCS）

Carbon intensity （CCS equivalent）

2.79

1.70

2.36

1.25

0.85

1.41

0.78

0.65

0.61

0.53

UK

Scenario B

Scenario A

Past

2.38

1.72

1.26

1.62

0.45

0.68

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Germany

France

Rate of improvement in carbon & energy intensity (%/year)

6/30/2009

12

0.5

]

U.S. EU-15U.K. GermanyFrance JapanKorea

Transition of energy intensity: Start of new innovation raceStart of new innovation race

3 5

4

） ドイツ

CO2/CapitaCO2/Capita

Energy/GDPTarget setting

0.2

0.3

0.4

y/G

DP

[toe

/thou

sand

$]

KoreaU.S.

U K1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

りC

O2

排出

量（

tC/

人

イギリス

フランス

2.22ｔC／人

GerGer

JapanJapan

UKUK

0.0

0.1

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year

Ener

gy U.K.

Japan?

(Based on IEA Energy Statistics) By S.Nishioka and S.Ashina

0

0.5

1

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

一人

あた

日本

実績値 計画値

0.82ｔC／人

0.5 tC/人

FrFr

PlanPlanPastPast

Why should we follow to the Why should we follow to the inefficient development inefficient development pattern?pattern?

LeapLeap--frog frog JapanJapan

ChinaChina？？IndiaIndia？？

From Jose Goldenberg (Blue Plant Prize Winner 2008)

Is Asia in the best position to leapfrog to LCS, or too late?

6/30/2009

13

北京1975 北京1984 北京1991 北京1997東京1927 東京1967 東京2001

大阪1967大阪1927 大阪2001

ソウル1920 ソウル1960 ソウル2006

深圳1985 深圳1997 深圳2005

台北1920 台北2003

マニラ2060 マニラ2000

バンコク1950 バンコク2000

アジア都市の急成長と空間的広がり

Are many of the Asian Countries in a good position  to leapfrog to LCS, or too late?

Rapid growing stage

Plenty of human resources/ infrastructure/ technology

Current pressure: energy, climate, globalization to LCS

Cooperative opportunity for T.T

6/30/2009

14

Can you see and feel the blessings of nature?

サブテーマ２：低炭素化に向けた都市発展形態と都市運営

都市は効率的になりうるのか？ 一人当たり二酸化炭素排出量の都市と国平均との比較

12.0

14.0

12.0

14.0

12.0

14.0

Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai

4 0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Per c

apita

CO2

emiss

ion (t

-CO2

/pers

on)

4 0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Per c

apita

CO2

emiss

ion (t

-CO2

/pers

on)

6.0

8.0

10.0

Per c

apita

CO2

emiss

ion (t

-CO2

/pers

on)日本

東京

韓国

ソウル北京

上海

0.0

2.0

4.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Tokyo Japan(CDIAC) Japan

0.0

2.0

4.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Seoul Korea

0.0

2.0

4.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Beijing Shanghai China(CDIAC) China

中国

6/30/2009

15

Effectiveness of Technology TransferEffectiveness of Technology Transfer20202020年の国年の国//地域別削減ポテンシャル地域別削減ポテンシャル

Low discount rate case （under 100US$/ｔ-CO2)

3500

eq) 50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2

H d ti

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

HG

Red

uctio

n po

tent

ial (

Mt-C

O 2 e

unde

r 100

US

$/t-C

O 2

20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO20 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2X <= 0 US$/t-CO2

Huge reduction potential if Best Available Technology applied

China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.

0

500

JPN

CH

N

IND

IDN

KO

R

THA

XS

E

XS

A

XM

E

AU

S

NZL

CA

N

US

A

XE

15

XE

10

RU

S

AR

G

BR

A

XLM XA

F

XR

W

GH

Governments

N t ’

Developing Co’s Research Institutions

G8ResearchInstitutions

Non‐G8 Dev’edResearchInstitutions

Promotion of Research

Low Carbon Society Research Network： LCS‐Rnet (Draft)

Next year’s G8 presidency

Research Institution

Co‐ChairCurrent

G8 presidencyResearch Institution

+5 & G20Research Institutions

Syn/Analysisstate of 

LCS Research

Intern’l WS hosted by

G8 presidency

LCS & LC Development

Asia:Promotion of LCS 

Research & Information. Dissemination

Low Carbon Society Research

LCS Research Network Japan

ＮＩＥＳ5 Years Standing Focal Point 

LCS‐RNet Research

ＩＧＥＳ5 Years Standing Co‐Chair &Secretariat :Managing R‐net

LCS Research Dissemination

GovernmentsAgreed at G8 Environmental Ministers Meeting in Kobe, 2008to create international LCS research network   

Gov’t of Japan