1. Lessens Learned from 3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Accident Koichi Kitazawa Private Sector Investigation Committee on Fukushima Nuclear Accident Japan Science council, energy policy options Japan Science and Technology Agency ISES 2013-Nuclear Energy, Trondheim June12-15, 2013

2. 500km Hokkaido Tokyo Sendai The Great East Japan Earthquake 3.11 2011 The largest ever in Japan, mag. 9.0 3. Total casualties 18600. 97% due to Tsunami 4. Tsunami invaded along 500km coast with av. 1km into land 500km x 1km 5 of 17NPS stations in the Tsunami area . 30% of total elec. power generated by NP. 5. Nuclear fission : a million times larger energy than chemical burning 1kg fuel vs. 1000 tons/day/1GW power station A BWR NPS Tsunami damage of sea water inlet + SBO Water supply stopped.Severe Accident 6. 10000 fuel rods for nuclear fission 7% of heat from residual radio- activity even after stopping of fission Cooling!! Gasket sealant Several ons/h H2 Suppression chamber Reactor container Pressure vessel Spent fuel rod pool BWR reactor of Fukushima Daiichi Loss of Water H2, meltdown 7. Unit 1 2 3 4 Turbine bldg Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant 8. Discharge of Radioactive Substances from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station The second worst in the world history Level 7, the worst level INES 1/7 of contamination of Chernobyl It could have been much more serious or much less prepared? 9. Contamination With 134Cs & 137Cs 2012 Nov. 5 Evacuation < 20mSv/y area 20-50mSv/y area >50mSv/y area Tokyo Sendai 80,000 evacuated additional 80,000 on own willKyoto 10. New regulations in the area of contamination De-contamination of radioactive substance for earlier return to home 50-20mSv/y areas to reduce anxiety of residents 1 20mSv/y areas 1mSv/y---conventional regulation level Areas >50mSv/y: assigned for no-return area within 5 yrs 11. Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident It could have been much worse than the reality. Fortuitous developments saved the spent fuel pool of No.4 unit from loosing water. Unit No.2 worried for possible explosion of the reactor vessel Pressure went up. It could have been much less serious if proper counter measures taken to introduce water into the core earlier. Unprepared against the severe accident Too late!! when sea water was introduced. Fukushima 50 still appreciated to have prevented the further worsening of the reactors. 12. The worst case scenario Reactor unit #4 lost the building roofH2 leak The spent fuel pool exposed directly to the air No confinement vessel if radio activity leaks The sfp is much more radio active. The sfp needed water cooling. Dry up feared The cooling stopped SBO after shock feared Evacuation of 30M metropolitan people possible Unexpected water supply to sfp from neighbor. 13. Spent fuel rods for ca. 10 years stored. To introduce water in emergency, the pressure must be released by vent. Gasket sealant Several ons/h H2 Suppression chamber Reactor container Pressure vessel Spent fuel rod pool BWR reactor of Fukushima Daiichi 14. Indirect/essential causes of the accident Lack of precautions for the severe accidents better knowledge about the emergency cooling system storage of supplementary batteries matching of external electric power supplier cars knowledge of manual vent systems extension of the valve shaft for safer vent lack of vent filter rehearsal of residents to escape for evacuation Negligence of the regulatory agencies safety guide no consideration necessary for long hour black-out by the Nuclear Safety Commission Oral regulation to avoid written specifications by 15. 54 nuclear reactors in Japan Only 2 on operation at the moment. 16. 18 http://vitalsigns.worldwatch.org/vs-trend/global-nuclear-generation-capacity-falls Three Mile Island Pennsilvania Fukushima Chernobyl, Soviet Union 17. Nuclear reactors Location of earthquakes bigger than Mg 6.0 20% near Japan(50 times more frequent) Additional special condition in Japan 18. Peoples desire of de-nuclearization if possible Finite risk does remain. nuclear plant not fail safe A gigantic risk collapse of a whole country possible + Nuclear waste negative heritage >10000yrs Are alternative energy sources feasible? Fossil energy: coal, oil, natural gas, shale gas Renewable energy: expensive initial cost unstable (intermittent) wide space needed CO2 emission, depleting resource Exceptions: Hydro Stable geothermal Low cost 19. Crude oil price & import 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ( / ) /k Energy White Paper 2011 1st oil shock 79 2nd oil shock 90 Gulf war 05 3rd oil shock 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 Energy import of Japan: $2000/yr person 20. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2020 2030 2040 TWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2020 2030 2040 TWh Japan Science Council Proposed options for shift Sept. 2011scenario scenario Scenario scenario scenario scenario Fossil RENuc Hydrp 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2020 2030 2040 TWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2020 2030 2040 TWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2020 2030 2040 TWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2010 2030 2040 TWh 2020 21. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2012 2016 2020 2030 TWh Nucl.30% Fossile Fuel 60% Renewable 50% FY Dam hydro 9% Energy Saving Electricpower(TWh) 1% GDP (500USD/yr/person) investment needed for RE To grow to 50% of elec. power By 2020 to keep UN promise Sci.Council J 2011 Efficiency improvement 22. The Empirical Rule by Kitazawa Land Area determines for nuclear or de-nuclear Russia, China, US> India>(Chile)>Ukrain> France>Spain>Sweden>(Ecuador) Japan>Germany>Italy>Korea>Austria> Switzerland>Taiwan>Belgium One Fukushima may destroy the whole country Additional factors: latent threat from other type of energy security economic growth more urgent for developing countries 23. Japanese policy for future energy Dec. 2012 General Election Democrat party government till the end of 2012 ex-nuclear at ca. 2030 by gradual decrease New Gov Liberal Democratic party decision suspended for 3-4 years restart of the stopping nuclear plants as far as their safety confirmed by the new Nuclear Regulatory Authority Efforts paid to introduce renewable energy 24. Efficient energy conversion and energy saving Now it is the time to pay every efforts for energy saving the first. combined cycle power generatortriple cycle Energy saving fuel cell +gas turbine +steam turbine 25. Carbon tax to provide comprehensive incentives final target 50(-80)% by 2050 Manufacturing, transportation and daily life cost of energy by 2 energy saving to 1/2 three important area for energy saving 26. Heat pumps Thermal insulation underground heat LED Heat pumps Fuel cell + water heating (Enefarm) IH heater microwave 27. CAR WEIGHTCAR WEIGHT kg HYBRID CAR EV, FC CAR FUEL CONSUMPTION FOREIGN CAR DOMESTIC CAR Energy Saving with automobiles 1/4 28. ENERGY SAVING OF HOME REFREGERATOR 80% in 20 yrs Heat pumps (kWh/L/yr) 29. 34 REN 2011 World Investment for Renewable E Exceeding 200 B$ /yr Becoming a gigantic world industry B$ 30. 35 2012 http://www.map.ren21.net/GSR/GSR2012.pdf 31. 36 http://www.isep.or.jp/images/press/Eneshift-ISEP20110614.pdf Wind power accumulated capacity >100GW US,China: asset finance Europe: Feed-in-tariff China US Germ Spain India Denm Japan Capacity(MW) 32. 37 33. 38 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed-in_tariff#Germany Price of electricity by solar cells in Germany 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2012 Rooftop >1MW Rooftop 10% Prof. E.Nakamura (Tokyo Univ) Si painting? 47. Umena Y., Kawakami K., Shen J.-R., Kamiya N. Nature: 473,Pages:5560 (05 May 2011) Crystal structure of oxygen-evolving photosystem II (Okayama, Osaka city Univ) Distorted Chair str. Mn Mn M Ca O O O O O Mn PHOTOSYNTHESIS ARTIFICIAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS 48. Efforts toward artificial photo synthesis Tokyo Univ. Prof. Domen, Honda-Fujishima H2 evolution photo-catalyst (TiO2) Tokyo Metropolitan Univ. Prof. Inoue Organic complex photo-catalyst 49. Performance revolution in 2005 HTS cable LxIc(77K) Tc 20 years needed to enhance Ic 50. 56 150 230 150 600800 2100 340 66kV HTS Cable 66kV Switching Station 66kV Switching Station 684MW 684kV 500kV (Existing Conduit) Conventional Cable HTS Cable 100% shield (New & Large Diameter Tunnel 275kV 275kV S/S 275kV S/S 66kV 66kV 684MW 684MW 275kV 500kV Substation mm mm (T. Hara et al., Advances in Superconductivity II, (1990) 1059.) YOKOHAMA HTS Cable Project HTS Cable Demonstration Project in Live Grid 66kV - 2kA - 200MVA Bi2223 wire ~ 250 meter long, One cable-to-cable Joint 51. The 1st practical superconducting cable To be instaled in Sapporo in 2014. Data center power plant Planned to extend the superconducting Low-V large-I line to wind mills. 52. K. Kitazawa Newton Jan. (2001) Global Superconducting Grid with natural renewable energy resources 53. Global superconducting grid No loss in transmission (DC mode) 54. JR type MAGLEV test since 1964 SC perp- etual magnet Ground coil(Cu) Ground Propul- sion coil levitation propulsion 55. Superconducting MAGLEV Japan Railway Company 2025 Tokyo-Nagoya Propulsion coil Levitation and guide coil Guide way SC magnet Perpetual current mode 56. No limit on traveling speed business speed 500km/h (2,000km/h possible under depressurized atmosphere) Jet Aircraft: 1,000km/h No exhaust gas Quieter than automobiles Energy saving: one-third of domestic airplanes Safer than railways Floating clearance (10cm) Volume supported (not point contact) Ease of maintenance: resistant to sand, earthquakes, and snow superconducting MAGLEV (JR) Yamanashi test line