ISO-9060 Standard & Pyranometer Measurement Accuracy
Solar Radiation Spectrum & Pyranometer Spectral Response Function
Atmospheric solar radiation spectrum extends from 285 – 4000 nm UV-A / B Spectrum: 280 – 400 nm Visible Spectrum: 400 – 700 nm Infrared Spectrum: 700 – 4000 nm
Pyranometer Types
Thermopile Pyranometer
• ISO-9060 / WMO compliant
• standardized calibration method
• true solar response function
• WRR (World Radiometric Reference) traceable calibration
Si-Pyranometer (photodiode)
• non ISO-9060 / WMO compliant
• non standardized calibration method
• Spectrally limited & selective response function
Thermopile Pyranometer Construction
Basic Design Scheme Thermopile Element
outer dome
inner dome
thermopile detector
bubble level
leveling foot housing / heat sink
Fig. 2
Multi-junction radial thermopile element (64-series connected thermocouple junctions)
Fig. 1
• Domes serve as throughput filter: 0.3 – 3 µm • Spectrally black thermopile acts as blackbody • Bubble level ensures detector is planner • Sensor housing serves as detector heat-sink
Pyranometer Physics 101
Pyranometer GHI Thermal Dynamics
A thermopile is an electronic device which converts thermal heat energy to a voltage potential. Thermopiles generate an output voltage linearly proportional to the temperature differential (i.e. ΔT) between the thermopile hot junction receiver surface and cold junction pyranometer housing / heat-sink reference temperature. Symmetrically opposing convection currents form between the inner dome and detector surface when exposed to solar radiation in the level horizontal plane.
Hot Junction
Cold Junction
Tdome_1
T dome_2
T case
T hot junct
Note: When T dome_1 = T case, pyranometer thermal offset-A bias effect is 0 W/m².
T sky
T ambient
radiative IR exchange effect Fig. 3
Pyranometer Physics 101 Continued
Pyranometer POA Thermal Dynamics Pyranometer tilt response as referenced in the ISO-9060 Standard (i.e. Ref. 3-F), refers to the change in pyranometer sensitivity as a function of tilt angle relative to the horizontal plane. Convective sweeping pattern grows increasing asymmetrical as tile angle is increased.
Neither the ISO or WMO standards organizations have defined a formalized test procedure for validating pyranometer tilt response. Manufacture stated specifications are therefore subjective estimates and not necessarily representative of real-world tilt response performance.
Note: Inner dome convection pattern and detector convective sweeping effect changes with pyranometer tilt angle.
Fig. 4 radiative IR exchange effect
Asymmetrically opposing convection currents
Pyranometer Directional Response
Cosine Law Good vs. Poor Pyranometer Directional Response
1000 W/m²
Cos (45) * 1000 = 707.1 W/m²
With reference to the direct beam irradiance component, any deviation from theoretical ideal in pyranometer output signal vs. solar zenith angle is referred to direction error, or cosine error.
The blue plot above depicts a pyranometer with good directional response.
The red plot above depicts a pyranometer with poor directional response.
Pyranometer Performance Classification
ISO-9060 Pyranometer Classification
• Secondary Standard Most stringent performance compliance,
manufacturer directional response and temperature response validation required, research grade measurement applications
• First Class For research grade and routine
measurement applications.
Exceptions: for solar energy test applications, manufacture must validate directional response: ISO-9060, pg. 4 , 4.3.2
• Second Class For routine purpose measurement
applications, performance validation not required
• High Quality Most stringent performance compliance,
manufacturer directional response and temperature response validation required, research grade measurement applications
• Good Quality
For research grade and routine measurement applications.
• Mode For routine purpose measurement
applications, performance validation not required
WMO Pyranometer Classification
ISO-9060 Standard / Solar Energy Testing
Note: ISO-9060 section 4.3.2 states for purposes of solar energy test applications, a pyranometer meeting First Class criteria is recommend, so long as the directional response of the pyranometer has been validated and documented by the manufacturer.
ISO-9060 Pyranometer Specifications Ref No.
ISO-9060 Pyranometer Specifications Secondary Standard
First Class
Second Class
1 Response time: time to reach 95% response < 15 sec. < 30 sec. < 60 sec.
2 Zero-offset: Offset-A: response to 200 W/m² net thermal radiation, ventilated Offset-B: response to 5 K/h change in ambient temperature
+ 7 W/m²
± 2 W/m²
+ 7 W/m²
± 2 W/m²
+ 7 W/m² ± 2 W/m²
3a Non-stability: % change in responsivity per year ± 0.8% ± 1.5% ± 3%
3b Non-Linearity: % deviation from responsivity at 500 W/m² due to change in irradiance from 100 – 1000 W/m²
± 0.5% ± 1% ± 3%
3c Directional response (for beam irradiance): the range of errors caused by assuming that the normal incidence responsivity is valid for all directions when measuring from any direction, a beam radiation whose normal incidence irradiance is 1000 W/m²
± 10 W/m² ± 20 W/m² ± 20 W/m²
3d Spectral Selectivity: % deviation of the product of spectral absorbance and transmittance from the corresponding mean, from 0.35 – 1.5 µm
± 3% ± 5% ± 10%
3e Temperature response: % deviation due to change in ambient within an interval of 50K, (e.g. -10 to +40º C typical)
2% 4% 8%
3f Tilt response: % deviation in responsivity relative to 0º tilt, due to change in tilt from 0º to 90º tilt at 1000 W/m² beam irradiance
± 0.5% ± 2% ± 5%
Pyranometer Measurement Accuracy
At current there is NO officially recognized standard that addresses the issue of how to:
a. determine net accuracy of a pyranometer measurement in the field for any given measurement condition worldwide
b. transfer manufacture laboratory characterized performance results from the lab to real-world field conditions
Note: Published manufacturer accuracy estimates are subjective as they do not conform to any standardized test method for determining pyranometer measurement accuracy in the field. Some manufacturer characterize certain instrument offset characteristics in the lab, however it is not always possible to transfer laboratory test data from lab to real-world measurement conditions.
Critical Performance Criteria
So what are the critical performance criteria for achieving an accurate GHI / POA irradiance measurement?
• Calibration accuracy Best achievable calibration uncertainty is ± 1.5%, ± 0.1%
• Directional response Supplied standard with Secondary Standard and select First Class models
• Temperature response Limited to < 1% if equipped with internal compensation circuit, or when implementing temp
correction algorithm at logger/SCADA (e.g. linear, or second degree polynomial correction algorithm)
• Non-stability Non-stability, or change in instrument sensitivity, is typically the same for an given manufacturer’s
thermopile pyranometer line (i.e. not dependent on pyranometer Class)
Practical Methods for Estimating Pyranometer Measurement Accuracy
• Calculate the root sum square of the critical performance criteria for the pyranometer
Example: Assuming a pyranometer with a calibration uncertainty of ± 1.5% with a worst case directional response error of ± 2% and a temperature response of 1%, coupled with an annual non-stability spec of < 1%,
√
1.5² + 2² + 1² + 1² = 2.87% uncertainty
Practical Methods for Estimating Pyranometer Accuracy Continued
In the absence of a clearly defined standard for estimating pyranometer measurement accuracy, one practical method for assessing pyranometer real-world measurement accuracy is to ratio one average pyranometer data midwinter against collocated component sum derived GHI one minute average data, calculated from a well characterized WRR traceable 2-axos tracker mounted pyrheliometer and a shaded (i.e. diffuse) pyranometer, from sunrise to sunset.
Diffuse Pyranometer
First Class Pyrheliometer
Ratio of Midwinter Pyranometer GHI vs. Component Sum Derived GHI
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
7:08 8:08 9:08 10:08 11:08 12:08 13:08 14:08 15:08 16:08 17:08
February 5, 2012 (MST)
Second Class Pyran (TempCorrected)
Secondary Standard Pyran(Ventilated)
Second Class Pyran (w/oTemp Correction)
First Class Pyran(Ventilated)
Maximum Solar Elevation: 33.97º
Mean Daily Temp: 1.9º C
Pre-Construction PV Resource Assessment
Qualitative Analysis: Reference Cell vs. Pyranometer
World Renewable Energy 2012 Forum
By: Justin Robinson
Program Manager, DAS
ASES RAD Chair
Why Ground Based Resource Assessment
Risk Mitigation
• Low uncertainty (2-3%)
site specific irradiance
data
• Correlate GB data set to
long term historical data
(NSRDB) GH orientation
Thermopile Pyranometer
Thermopile detector:
• Chain of thermocouples in
series (Seebeck-Effect)
Designed for outdoor long term
applications
~Lambertian surface
Spectrally non-selective short
wave radiation measurement
Reference Cell
Encapsulated PV cell calibrated
at STC
Designed for solar simulator
intensity calibration at STC
Spectrally selective
measurement of short wave
radiation
Standard Test Conditions (STC)
STC Kyocera KD235 W Module
1000 W/m^2
Cell Temp 25o C
AM 1.5 Spectrum
AM1.5G Spectrum
(IEC 60904-3 & ASTM G173-03)
Tilt of incidence plane
Ground Reflectance *
Atmospheric Water Concentration
Atmospheric Ozone Concentration
Turbidity
Directional Error
Reference Cell Pyranometer
Hukseflux Thermal Sensors B.V., 2011
Directional Error
Hukseflux Thermal Sensors B.V., 2011
Directional Error vs. Angle of Incidence
Hukseflux Thermal Sensors B.V., 2011
Relative Spectral Response
Zehner et al., University of Applied Sciences Munich, 2009
Typical Spectral Response of Various Cell Types
Fraunhofer ISE CalLab
DHI Spectral Shift
Blackburn et al., University of Oregon, 2012
Solar Cell Efficiencies
NREL
Specifications
Pyranometer Reference Cell
Cell Type
Operating Temperature*
Typical Error
(Vertical beam)*
Non-Linearity *
ISO 9060 Classification
Response Time
Zero Offsets
Non-stability
Directional Error (<80 Deg)
Temperature Dependence of
Sensitivity
Tilt Error
Sensitivity
Spectral Range
Expected Daily Uncertainty
(Real World)
Outdoor PV Monitoring Standards
IEC 61724
ASTM E2848C
CAISO PIRP/ERIP Telemetry Standards
Additional Considerations
PV cells exhibit non-linear output across typical
operating temperatures, error rarely reported
Flat panel reference cell more prone to optical fouling
especially models with recessed detectors which
facilitate pooling of water over detector
GH orientation exasperates the directional response
issues associated with reference cells
The thermal dynamic properties of a reference cell do
not match those of an actual module which leads to
temperature de-rating bias
Over 50 years outdoor pyranometer data exists,
proven reliable method of irradiance measurement
Conclusions
Reference cells typically under report irradiance when
compared to pyranometers which can exceed 5%
• Hukseflux Thermal Sensors B.V., 2011
• Haeberlin et al., 13th EU PV Conference, 1995
Spectral mismatch between various cell types can lead
to a10% error band
• Zehner et al., University of Applied Sciences Munich, 2009
Thermopile pyranometers are the best option for Flat
Panel PV Resource Assessment when bankable data is
required
Draker Labs PV Prospector
Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Marie Schnitzer Senior Director of Investor and Solar Services
May 2012
From Minimizing Risk to Maximizing Performance: Flat Panel PV Resource Assessment Best Practices (Forum)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring 3. Bankable Analysis 4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Importance of Solar Resource Information
Project Lifecycle Considerations:
• Early Development Phase – Prospecting and Site Screening
– Site Comparison and Selection
• Pre-Construction and Financial Readiness Phase – Long-Term Energy Assessment
– Economic Viability
• Operational Phase – Performance Verification
– Utility Forecasting
Characterize the Spatial and Temporal Variability of System Output
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
The Path to a Bankable Analysis
Conduct an On-Site Measurement Program
Procure High-Quality Reference Data
Analyze Data Sets and Predict Long-Term Resource
Quantify Data Uncertainties
Conduct Energy Production Analysis
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring 3. Bankable Analysis 4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Attributes of On-Site Monitoring
On‐site monitoring provides significant value to assessing a project’s potential, translating to higher confidence in energy estimates.
• Accurate Representation of the Project Site
• Customizable for Various Technologies (e.g., PV or CSP) and Various Users
• Flexible Equipment Options and Costs
• Small Environmental Footprint
• Straight-Forward Installation & Operation
• Self-Contained Communications and Power Supply
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
On-Site Monitoring Best Practices
Measurement Plan
• Solar instrumentation
• Meteorological: temperature, wind speed, precipitation
• Sampling/recording rate
• Measurement period
Installation and Commissioning
• Site selection
• Sensor verification
• Communications and data QA
• Documentation
Site Maintenance
• Regular schedule
• Clean, level instrumentation
• Site security
Data Validation and Quality Control
• Regular system monitoring
• Comparison with reference data and concurrent satellite data
• Visual data screening
• Clear sky / extreme values
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring
3. Bankable Analysis 4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Developing a Long-Term Projection
Long-Term Meteorological Characteristics
Objective Review of Resource and Energy Potential
Observed Reference
Data
Modeled Data
On-Site Data
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Other Sources for Solar Resource Data
Modeled Data • National Solar Radiation Database
(NSRDB)
• International Databases
• Solar Maps
Observed Reference Data • National Networks
• Regional and State Networks
• International Sources
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Modeled Data Caution
• Understand Variation and Uncertainty
Schnitzer, et al; WREF 2012 – The Impact of Solar Uncertainty on Project Financeability
• Example: 14% difference in a 60km radius around Dallas, TX
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
GH
I (
kWh
/m2
/ye
ar)
Long Term GHI from TMY3s near Dallas, TX
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Data Source Advantages and Limitations
Data Source Advantages Limitations and Risks Intended Use
Modeled • Grid-cell specific
• Publicly available
• High data recovery
• Grid resolution
• Regional biases
• Greater uncertainty
• Initial prospecting
• Smaller projects
• Correlation with on-site data
Observed
Reference
Station
• Ground measurements
• Period of record may be
longer
• Publicly available
• Scarcity of sites
• Location compared to
project site
• Uncertainty: quality of O&M,
instrumentation,
inconsistencies in data
• Confirm trends
• Identify regional biases
• Correlation with on-site data
On-Site
Measurements
• Site-specific data
• Customized for project
needs
• Station details well-known
• Reduced uncertainty
• Shorter period of record
(correlate with long-term
data)
• High-confidence resource and
energy estimates
• Bankable reports
• In-depth characterization of
seasonal and diurnal climate
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Considerations for Regionally Observed Data Sets
• Site Location and Exposure
• Proximity to Project Site
• Period of Record
• Data Trends
• Data Recovery Rate
• Site Maintenance
• Instrument Calibration
• Correlation Between Sites
Reference Station
Site
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Adjusting to the Long-Term
Short Period of On-site Data
Long Period of Reference Data
Long-term Resource Estimation at the Project Site
Measure - Correlate - Predict
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Mo
nth
ly I
rrad
iati
on
(kW
h/m
2)
Long-Term Reference Data On-Site Measured
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Targ
et
Site
GH
I (W
/m2)
Reference Site GHI (W/m2)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Energy Production Analysis
Soiling, Shading, Incident Angle,
Mismatch, Wiring, Availability, etc
Component Selection,
Orientation, Tracking, Row Spacing, etc
Global/Diffuse Horizontal,
Temperature, Wind Speed
Sun Position, Surroundings, Horizon, etc
Energy Analysis
Project Location
Plant Design
System Losses
Resource
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Uncertainty in the Long-Term Projections
Uncertainty Considerations • Measurement
• Inter-Annual Variability
• Representativeness of Monitoring Period
• Spatial Variability
• Transposition to Plane of Array
• Simulation and Plant Losses
Confidence in Energy Estimates • Probability Analysis
• P50, P75, P90, P95, P99
The uncertainty of data used in an assessment needs to be characterized and applied to the long-term projections
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring 3. Bankable Analysis
4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Key Messages
• Solar resource assessment is a sound investment
• Utilize all available data sets in an resource analysis
• Consider the factors that impact the quality of the data sets
• Thorough resource assessments lead to more accurate energy estimates
• Detailed analysis of the resource and better characterization of the project site leads to a lower risk project
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Effect of Uncertainty
On-Site Solar Data
Reduced Energy Uncertainty
Higher Confidence in Project Return
Reduced Project Risk
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Marie Schnitzer Senior Director of Investor and Solar Services
Questions
+1 877-899-3463
awstruepower.com
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Christopher Thuman and Marie Schnitzer
May 2012
From Minimizing Risk to Maximizing Performance: Flat Panel PV Resource Assessment Best Practices (Forum)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring 3. Bankable Analysis 4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Importance of Solar Resource Information
Project Lifecycle Considerations:
• Early Development Phase – Prospecting and Site Screening
– Site Comparison and Selection
• Pre-Construction and Financial Readiness Phase – Long-Term Energy Assessment
– Economic Viability
• Operational Phase – Performance Verification
– Utility Forecasting
Characterize the Spatial and Temporal Variability of System Output
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
The Path to a Bankable Analysis
Conduct an On-Site Measurement Program
Procure High-Quality Reference Data
Analyze Data Sets and Predict Long-Term Resource
Quantify Data Uncertainties
Conduct Energy Production Analysis
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring 3. Bankable Analysis 4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Attributes of On-Site Monitoring
On‐site monitoring provides significant value to assessing a project’s potential, translating to higher confidence in energy estimates.
• Accurate Representation of the Project Site
• Customizable for Various Technologies (e.g., PV or CSP) and Various Users
• Flexible Equipment Options and Costs
• Small Environmental Footprint
• Straight-Forward Installation & Operation
• Self-Contained Communications and Power Supply
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
On-Site Monitoring Best Practices
Measurement Plan
• Solar instrumentation
• Meteorological: temperature, wind speed, precipitation
• Sampling/recording rate
• Measurement period
Installation and Commissioning
• Site selection
• Sensor verification
• Communications and data QA
• Documentation
Site Maintenance
• Regular schedule
• Clean, level instrumentation
• Site security
Data Validation and Quality Control
• Regular system monitoring
• Comparison with reference data and concurrent satellite data
• Visual data screening
• Clear sky / extreme values
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Challenges to On-Site Monitoring
Adverse Weather
Solar Panel/Battery
Communications
Theft
Maintenance Technicians
Wiring
Rodents/Birds/Bees
Equipment and Failure
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring
3. Bankable Analysis 4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Developing a Long-Term Projection
Long-Term Meteorological Characteristics
Objective Review of Resource and Energy Potential
Observed Reference
Data
Modeled Data
On-Site Data
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Other Sources for Solar Resource Data
Modeled Data • National Solar Radiation Database
(NSRDB)
• International Databases
• Solar Maps
Observed Reference Data • National Networks
• Regional and State Networks
• International Sources
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Modeled Data Caution
• Understand Variation and Uncertainty
Schnitzer, et al; WREF 2012 – The Impact of Solar Uncertainty on Project Financeability
• Example: 14% difference in a 60km radius around Dallas, TX
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
GH
I (
kWh
/m2
/ye
ar)
Long Term GHI from TMY3s near Dallas, TX
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Data Source Advantages and Limitations
Data Source Advantages Limitations and Risks Intended Use
Modeled • Grid-cell specific
• Publicly available
• High data recovery
• Grid resolution
• Regional biases
• Greater uncertainty
• Initial prospecting
• Smaller projects
• Correlation with on-site data
Observed
Reference
Station
• Ground measurements
• Period of record may be
longer
• Publicly available
• Scarcity of sites
• Location compared to
project site
• Uncertainty: quality of O&M,
instrumentation,
inconsistencies in data
• Confirm trends
• Identify regional biases
• Correlation with on-site data
On-Site
Measurements
• Site-specific data
• Customized for project
needs
• Station details well-known
• Reduced uncertainty
• Shorter period of record
(correlate with long-term
data)
• High-confidence resource and
energy estimates
• Bankable reports
• In-depth characterization of
seasonal and diurnal climate
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Considerations for Regionally Observed Data Sets
• Site Location and Exposure
• Proximity to Project Site
• Period of Record
• Data Trends
• Data Recovery Rate
• Site Maintenance
• Instrument Calibration
• Correlation Between Sites
Reference Station
Site
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Adjusting to the Long-Term
Short Period of On-site Data
Long Period of Reference Data
Long-term Resource Estimation at the Project Site
Measure - Correlate - Predict
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Mo
nth
ly I
rrad
iati
on
(kW
h/m
2)
Long-Term Reference Data On-Site Measured
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Targ
et
Site
GH
I (W
/m2)
Reference Site GHI (W/m2)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Energy Production Analysis
Soiling, Shading, Incident Angle,
Mismatch, Wiring, Availability, etc
Component Selection,
Orientation, Tracking, Row Spacing, etc
Global/Diffuse Horizontal,
Temperature, Wind Speed
Sun Position, Surroundings, Horizon, etc
Energy Analysis
Project Location
Plant Design
System Losses
Resource
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Uncertainty in the Long-Term Projections
Uncertainty Considerations • Measurement • Inter-Annual Variability • Representativeness of Monitoring
Period • Spatial Variability • Transposition to Plane of Array • Simulation and Plant Losses • Degradation
Confidence in Energy Estimates • Probability Analysis • P50, P75, P90, P95, P99
The uncertainty of data used in an assessment needs to be characterized and applied to the long-term projections
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©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
On-Site Data Contribution to Project Uncertainty
P50
P75
P90P95
P99
70%
80%
90%
100%
50 60 70 80 90 100
Perc
ent
of
P5
0
Percentile (P-Value)
P-Values as Percent of P50
Modeled DataOn-Site Data
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
1. The Importance of Solar Resource Assessment
2. Best Practices for On-Site Monitoring 3. Bankable Analysis
4. Key Messages 5. Questions
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Key Messages
• Solar resource assessment is a sound investment
• Utilize all available data sets in an resource analysis
• Consider the factors that impact the quality of the data sets
• Thorough resource assessments lead to more accurate energy estimates – on site data!
• Detailed analysis of the resource and better characterization of the project site leads to a lower risk project
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Effect of Uncertainty
On-Site Solar Data
Reduced Energy Uncertainty
Higher Confidence in Project Return
Reduced Project Risk
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | awstruepower.com | +1 877-899-3463
©2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Marie Schnitzer Senior Director of Investor and Solar Services Christopher Thuman Senior Meteorologist
Questions
+1 877-899-3463
awstruepower.com