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IMPACT v3.2 Projections A selection of scenario results based on the IPCC’s 5 th Assessment report Daniel Mason-D’Croz IFPRI
IMPACT v3.2 ProjectionsA selection of scenario results based on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment report
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
IFPRI
The IMPACT system of models
• Complete recoding of IMPACT
• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity
• Improved water & crop models
• New data management system
• Modular framework
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:biophysical and economic effects
General circulation models (GCMs)
Global gridded crop models
(GGCMs)
Global economic modelsΔ Temp
Δ Precip…
Δ Yield(biophys)
Δ AreaΔ YieldΔ Cons.Δ Trade
Climate Biophysical Economic
Source: HadGem RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI DSSAT Maize simulation
Socioeconomic and climate drivers
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing(W/m2)
Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)
IMPACT model results
• Yields – sources of growth, climate effects by commodity and region
• Prices – comparing socioeconomic and climate effects
• Total demand – comparing commodities
• Per-capita food demand – by commodity and region
• Composition of demand – by commodity and region
• Net trade – by commodity and region
• Food security – by region
Changing diets, by region (SSP2, kcal/person/day)
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
20
10
20
30
20
50
WLD EAP EUR FSU LAC MEN NAM SAS SSA
Total Animal Products Cereals Fruits & Vegetables Oils & Sugar
Decomposition of global supply growth of animal products (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Decomposition of changing demand for cereals and oilmeals (SSP2, NoCC)
Cereals Oilmeals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Decomposition of global supply growth in cereal and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Climate impacts on yield effect, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Roots & tubers
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
Cereals Fruits & Vegetables
Oilseeds Pulses Sugar
Comparing maize and wheat climate yield impacts, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
CerealsMaize
Wheat
Price effects of socioeconomic and climate drivers
Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat
RC
PsSS
Ps
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Net trade in Cereals (mmt, SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and CaribbeanMEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Net trade in select cereals(mmt, SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and CaribbeanMEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Rice Wheat Maize
Comparing trade in vegetable oils and oil meals (mmt, NoCC)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and CaribbeanMEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Prevalence of hunger in 2050, by region
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union;MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
Total number of climate-related deaths in 2050 by risk factor and region (SSP2 RCP 8.5)
Source: Springmann et al (2015)
HIC = High Income Country; AFR = Africa; AMR = Americas; EMR = Eastern Mediterranean;EUR = Europe; SEA = South-East Asia; WPR = Western Pacific
Thank you
For more information:
http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model
http://globalfutures.cigar.org
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129825
