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Israel’s National SecurityIn Crisis
The Rise and Fall of Strategies
Relevancy
Paradigm ‘relevant’ to
reality
Paradigm Eroded
Paradigm Loses
Relevancy
New Paradigm
Generations
Strategies in the Flat World
A few years
Time
Israel’s National Security Concept
Time
Rele
van
cy
Ben Gurion’s Seminar
1947 2000~
2nd Lebanon War Tahdiah
with Hamas
Israel secure
Logic of Implosion Israel’s Code
Broken
Winograd Commission
UNSCR 1701
Billions of Dollars
++
1936-45
Israel suffering from Strategic Inferiority
Israel losing to Resistance Network
Failure to topple Hamas
2nd Lebanon War
Convergence Plan
Annapolis Stalemate
Around Gaza
>0:5
Ideology + Strategy + Nuclear Weapons
= New Strategic Challenge
1234
IDF SuperiorityArab States: Strategic balance
Resistance Network Outflanking IDF
Resistance Network Bypasses IDF
Israeli Inferiority
IL Arabs Home front
Intl Arena
Basic Assumptions: Strategic A-Symmetry
Flat network based structure Hierarchical top-down structure
Permanent ResistanceFinality of claims / PeaceLow intensity / Attrition / ImplosionHigh intensity / Victory
Attack civilians / Human shieldsNo civilian casualtiesIL Arabs = Strategic leverageIL Arabs = domestic issue
Battleground: Home front & intl. arena
Battleground: Military field
Control over PL = Strategic AssetControl over PL = Military NecessityAuthority w/o responsibilityAuthority with responsibility
Undermine 2SS / Promote 1SS
Tactics: Overstretch
No Finality of claims
Basic De-Legitimacy
Demography / Intl Law
Logic of ImplosionVision:
Islamic State in place of Israel
Democracy
Demography
Territory
Identity
Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like
the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06)
Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06)
Occupation Serves the Implosion
Purpose: Destruction of Israel
MilitaryMeans
De-LegitimizePromote 1SSOppose 2SS
IsraeliImplosion
Single Arab State in its
place
War Against
Occupation
Continuation of the
OccupationMeshal: “If Hamas cannot
protect the Palestinian people, let the PA go to
hell…” (3/19/06)
The Threat: International Inversion
Logic of Implosion Occupation is Bad for Israel
Global Changes: USA Declining
New Forces Rise
Inversion: From Two-State Solution to One-state SolutionIsraeli-Arabs:
InternationalizationPalestinizationChallenge to IL’s Charecter
International Inversion Towards the 2SS
Anti-Zionism risingFailure of NegotiationBy the ‘Dream-Team’
Ben Gurion’s Seminar (3-11/47)
Focus
Systemic & Systematic Approach
Learning Process
Defining the Challenge
Formulating structural & Operational approach
National Security Strategy & Victory
Objectives
Why it was Successful
2008: A New Seminar is Required