ISSN 0111-1736 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) · Abstract: Dynamical processes that...

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter147 Summer 2017 Page 1

ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 147

Summer 2017


Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 147

Summer 2017

PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand

Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt,

[email protected]

CONTENTS Page

Welcome from our new President 3

Around the Regions 4-5

AGM 6-11

Spring: NIWA review 12

Notable events 13-19

Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 20

Pick of the clips 21-54

Your NEW Committee

President Sylvia Nichol

Immediate Past President Daniel Kingston

Secretary Katrina Richards

Treasurer Gregor Macara

Circulation Manager Zoe Buxton

Auckland VP Petra Pearce

Hamilton VP Tim Gunn

Wellington VP James Renwick

Christchurch VP Adrian MacDonald

Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston

Journal Editor Nava Fedaeff with Jim Renwick

Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt

Website Liaison Stefanie Kremser

General Committee Mike Revell

Michael Martens

Charles Pearson

Lisa Murray

Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the

contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand.

The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they

are endorsed or recommended by the Society.


Happy New Year! I hope that 2017 is a good year for you. As I start my term as President I would like to thank our immediate past president, Daniel Kingston, along with the rest of the committee for all their work over the past two years. At our AGM in November we farewelled three long serving members (Andrew Tait, Jennifer Salmond, and Sam Dean). We also welcomed four new committee members (Gregor Macara, Lisa Murray, Petra Pearce, and Zoe Buxton) – I look forward to working with you in the coming year. One of the highlights from last year was our November short conference, including a tour of the weather forecasting area, which was very kindly hosted by MetService; many thanks to Michael Martens and his team for organizing it. At the conference we awarded the Kidson medal to Hinrich Schaefer for his paper “A 21st-century shift from fossil-fuel to biogenic methane emissions indicated by 13CH4”. Early in February our joint conference with the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) will take place in Canberra. The conference programme looks very interesting. We have been able to help support one student to attend the conference through a travel grant. We would like to grow the student/early career researcher membership within our Society. One way to do this is to provide a small number of conference travel grants to help with attendance costs. Applications for this travel fund can be sent to me ([email protected]). Enjoy the rest of the summer Sylvia


Around the Regions

AUCKLAND Wed 16 November 2016:

Before the Flood movie screening

Bridgeway Cinema, Northcote, Auckland

A look at how climate change affects our environment and what society can do prevent the demise of endangered species, ecosystems and native communities across the planet.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The Australasian Quaternary Association (AQUA) Biennial Conference, be-ing held at the University of Auckland in December, is hosting two pub-lic science talks. They will both be held at Old Government House, Uni-versity of Auckland:

5 December 2016, 6.30 pm

Lake Ohau Climate History (LOCH) project: A 17,000 year-long annually-resolved palaeoclimate record and its potential to decipher the phasing of high frequency climate modes in Southern New Zealand. Dr Marcus Vandergoes, GNS Science

Geological records that span millennia yet still capture paleo-environmental information at seasonal-annual resolution can make an im-portant contribution to understanding the spatial and temporal varia-bility of climate processes that vary at high frequency, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). However, such records are scarce and are particularly rare in the southern hemisphere. In February/March 2016 two sites were double-cored by hydraulic piston corer (HPC) in Lake Ohau, New Zealand (44°17’S, 169°55’E) as part of the Lake Ohau Climate History (LOCH) pro-ject. Both sites yielded mm-scale laminated sediments representing an-nually-resolved accumulation in the lake basin from ~17,000 years be-fore present to today. We outline LOCH project developments to date, including the first usage of a globally transportable HPC system. This system uses principles established by the Ocean Drilling Program and is capable of coring >100 m of unconsolidated sediment. We also report the initial results of physical properties core scanning, including comput-ed tomography (CT) which yields whole-volume core density data at 600 micron resolution, as well as paleomagnetic and micropaleontological studies. We provide preliminary time-series analysis of annual to cen-tennial-scale climate variability reconstructed for the past 1,300 years and highlight the potential of the complete 17,000 year long rec-ord to decipher the phasing of high frequency climate modes in southern New Zealand and the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

7 December 2016,

Back to the Future: Last Interglacial warmth and the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets. Professor Chris Turney, University of New South Wales Recent studies modelling the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future global sea level rise range from negligible to substantial (>7m). A useful analogue in this regard is the Last Interglacial (LIG; 135-116 ka) during which reconstructed past sea levels imply a significant ice mass loss from both Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, contributing to a global sea level 6.6 to 9.4 metres above present day. Climate recon-structions and models of the Last Interglacial, however, suggest a wide range of global temperatures, from relatively small differences com-pared to present day to large warming (>2˚C) at high latitudes (so-called ‘polar amplification’). This limits our understanding of the

sensitivity of the ice sheets to warming. Previous work combining ter-restrial and marine records spanning the LIG is challenge given chrono-logical and seasonality biases. Marine records are arguably better con-strained in these regards but recent work has highlighted the im-portance of ocean current drift in introducing temperature biases into palaeo-reconstructions where the offset may reach 1.5 °C for planktonic foraminifera living for a month and 3.0 °C for longer-living species. Here we exploit an updated marine record of quantified temperature es-timates across the LIG d18O plateau and attempt to quantify for bias introduced by ocean current drift to generate an accurate and precise estimate of global LIG temperatures. Using the new reconstructed sea surface temperatures we drive a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to investigate the contribution of Antarctic ice sheets to global sea lev-el rise during the LIG.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> WELLINGTON 14th Annual S.T. Lee Lecture: Tuesday 18 October

Speaker: Professor Eric J.M. Rignot, Donald Bren Professor of Earth System Science, School of Physical Sciences, University of California, Irvine, USA

Title: Future sea-level rise from warming of the polar ice sheets

The ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are contributing faster, sooner and more significantly than expected to global sea-level rise. Predicting the future rates of ice sheet mass loss with deterministic models remains a formidable challenge. Observations and physics prin-ciples suggest sea-level rise of more than 1 metre by 2100, and geolog-ical information from the Last Interglacial period (125,000 years ago) suggest a potential for a 6–9 metre sea-level rise with 1–2° C warming above pre-industrial levels. Professor Eric Rignot will review the current state of knowledge of ice sheet mass balance, and its potential to raise global sea level by many metres. He will address the question, “Have some of the marine-based sectors already passed a point of no return, and if so, what is the magnitude of sea-level rise are we committed to?”. He will also explore the emission mitigation pathways that can limit the amount of sea-level rise by the end of the century and beyond. Thu 29 September; Google[X] Project

Loon balloons providing insight into the polar stratosphere. Seminar by Chris Cameron, VUW and Bodeker Scientific

Abstract: Dynamical processes that occur in the stratosphere between 15 and 50 km above Earth's surface can affect our weather and climate. Since 2014, hundreds of long-duration stratospheric balloons have been flown by Google [x] Project Loon to provide global internet connectivi-ty. Location data from GPS units carried by the balloons provides an order of magnitude more data than all previous scientific balloon cam-paigns combined, providing wind velocities which can be compared with reanalyses data. Each winter and spring a zone of strong westerly winds surrounding Antarctica forms in the stratosphere called the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV). The ACV presents a barrier to transport of air masses between polar and mid-latitudes which allows for air temper-atures above the pole to drop sufficiently low in spring to allow for ozone loss. The processes controlling the permeability of the ACV, and how they are likely to respond to a changing climate have not been well studied, and as a result are not well simulated in atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Movement of Loon balloons which fly over south-ern middle and high latitudes can be used to determine how permeability of the ACV changes seasonally and inter-annually, and to identify pro-


cesses at a fine scale which are not currently captured.

Speaker Bio: Chris Cameron is a VUW PhD student working with Bodeker Scientific and VUW SGEES on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamics. Prior to taking up PhD studies, Chris worked for several years in Wel-lington-region local government, on climate change, sustainability, and disaster risk reduction.

Minutes of the 37th Annual General Meeting of the Meteorological Society

of new Society of Zealand (Draft 12 Dec 2016) 16 November 2016, Wellington.

Meeting began at 4:45 pm, chaired by Daniel Kingston (President). Minutes taken by Katrina Richards (Secretary).

1. Attendance Daniel Kingston, Andrew Tait, Katrina Richards, Michael Martens, Mike Harvey, Erick Brenstrum, Luke Sutherland-Stacey, James Renwick, Trevor Carey-Smith, Gregor Macara, Nava Fedaeff, Sylvia Nicol, Brett Mullan, Mike Revell, Neil Gordon, Mark Rolston, Olef Morgenstern, Neal Osborne, Guang Zeng, James Lunny. 2. Apologies Mike Green, Howard Diamond, Jim Salinger, Richard Gorman, John Lumsden, Matt Ruglys, Tim Gunn, Bob McDavitt, Charles Pearson, Jenny Salmond, Adrian McDonald, Stephanie Kremser, Richard Turner, David Wratt, Errol Lewthwaite, Tony Bromley, Pip Revell, Sam Dean. 3. Confirmation of minutes of previous AGM. Motion that “The minutes of the previous AGM, held on the 23 November 2015 be accepted as a true and correct record” proposed by Andrew Tait/Seconded by Jim Renwick – carried. The Treasurer’s Report was next presented, as Andrew needed to leave the meeting early. [Numbering has been retained as set out in the Agen-da. KR] 6. Treasurer’s report (Andrew Tait)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Profit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 July 2016

Notes to the Financial Statements The Meteorological Society of New Zealand is an independent group of weather enthusiasts whose aim is to encourage an interest in the atmos-phere, weather and climate as related to the New Zealand region. Statement of General Accounting Policies These financial statements have been prepared using the historical cost method. Accrual accounting has been used except as noted below, and re-liance has been placed on the Society being a going concern. Statement of Particular Accounting Policies Subscription receipts have been accounted for on a cash basis. These financial statements were prepared on a Goods and Services Tax (GST) inclusive basis. The conference surplus is accounted for on a cash basis. Changes in Accounting Policies There have been no changes in accounting policies. All accounting poli-cies have been applied on bases consistent with the previous year. Income Tax The Society is registered as a charitable entity so no income tax is payable. Motion that “The financial report be accepted as a true and accurate record” proposed by Andrew Tait/seconded by Neil Gordon – carried.


2016 2015

Income

Subscriptions Received 13,985 14,079

Conference (Deficit)/Surplus (5,127) 2,158

Interest Received 1,603 1,575

Total Income 10,461 17,812

Expenditure

Audit fee 525 455

Newsletter 1,928 2,065

International Conference travel grant Other Expenses

1,000

91

0

576

P O Box 175 170

Royal Society NZ fees 1,407 1,495

Student Conference Prizes 750 600

Student Travel Grants 1,000 800

Weather and Climate 904 2,685

Total Expenditure 8,430 8,846

Surplus of Income over Expenditure $2,031 $8,966

Meteorological Society of New Zealand

Balance Sheet as at 31 July 2016

2016 2015

Accumulated Funds

Balance 1 August 55,059 46,093

Surplus Income over Expenditure 2,031 8,966

Balance 31 July $57,090 $55,059

Represented by:

Cheque Account 13,619 13,456

Accrued Interest/Prepayment 857 1,758

Term Deposits 42,614 40,593

57,090 55,807

Less Accounts Payable 0 748

$57,090 $55,059


Andrew noted that the subscriptions were fairly similar. The deficit was based on a more expensive Raglan Conference with fewer attendees. This is the first year for the International Travel Grant. Substantial savings have been made with our new publisher and most members get the journal electronically. So we ended with a profit overall. He went on to say we need to work out how to spend our surplus. In com-mittee meetings we agreed we want to send more students to conferences, plus upgrade our web presence. A discussion followed: We should budget carefully in future so we don’t get a conference loss. But we don’t expect any costs from the AMOS con-

ference, and this is an opportunity to fund students to get there. As a NPO we shouldn’t make large profits, but we need a reasonable cash re-serve to cope with future conferences. This profit is a new thing, the outcome of several factors. Andrew presented a budget: He expects a surplus overall, and maybe some surplus from the AMOS conference. The period to 31 July 2017 will not

include our own 2017 conference.

In the discussion which followed, the idea was raised, Are we being too conservative? Should we spend more to send students and maybe early ca-reer scientists abroad? The general idea is $1000 per student up to a spend of about $6000 a year on international travel. We will invite ap-plications and then decide, so more or less can be awarded. Andrew pointed out that when we co-hosted the Southern Hemisphere conference, we were responsible for losses, so we need cash. We are also upgrading our webpage and data base. Before Andrew’s exit, Daniel offered him our official thanks and grati-tude. Andrew is leaving the committee now but has served on the commit-tee, with some gaps, since 2000, and has been Treasurer, President and Past President. He has had a huge input to the Society. The group’s

CASH BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

INCOME

Subscriptions (incl MetService bulk purchase)

13,200

Interest

2,000

Conference surplus

1,000 16,200

EXPENSES

Weather and Climate incl. postage 1,000

Newsletters incl stat & post

2,000

Student travel grants and prizes (incl overseas travel grants)

6,000

Charities Commission

51

Website upgrade and maintenance 2,000

Other expenses

500

Audit fee

550

Royal Society

1,495

Post Office Box

170 13,766

2,434


thanks were expressed in a round of appreciative applause. 4. Matters Arising No discussion was undertaken at this point, all Matters Arising being covered in the President and Financial Reports. 5. President’s report Daniel thanked the members for coming and staying around, as its been a bit stressful the last few days because of the earthquakes. Firstly I would like to thank everyone in attendance. I realise the last few days may have been quite trying for many of you, so it’s good to see such a good attendance, especially when the AGM is not associat-ed with a full conference as usual. Thanks to MetService and Michael Martens in particular for helping to arrange hosting of the meeting here today. I will now report on the main areas of activity of the society over the past year. Summary of activities for 2016 The committee met 4 times this year via teleconference. Membership Numbers have been relatively stable (in the low 300s) – a healthy to-tal. Edward Kidson Medal We had a call for nominations for the Edward Kidson Medal this year – resulting in the award to Hinrich Schaefer earlier. Calls for nomina-tions are made every two years, with the medal being recognition for an outstanding weather- and climate-related paper originating from a New Zealand-based or affiliated author. The whole procedure seemed to be really successful – helped in no small part by the clear guidelines de-veloped by Sam Dean and presented at the AGM last year. There were four high quality nominations, with each paper sent to two leading international experts in the respective fields. The review pro-cess went surprisingly smoothly, leaving the medal sub-committee (James Renwick, Mike Revell and I) to come to a decision. Although unanimous in decision, we felt in isolation all nominated papers were worthy of the medal, so encourage re-nomination in the next Kidson round. Website The website still hasn’t regained full functionality. Stephanie Kremser (the committee website-liaison person) has arranged a series of measures with the website designer to address this, but communication with the designer has been poor and we have been unable to push forward with this anywhere near as quick as we would have liked. A new person for this service is being sought. We have continued using the website for posting news and updates (particular thanks to Bob McDavitt here). Journal Volume 36 of Weather and Climate is still pending. There are three pa-pers in the pipeline, but the revisions will make publication this year tight – so we may be looking at another slightly delayed publication. I encourage everyone to consider submitting to our journal. It is visi-ble on Google Scholar. We have requests submitted to Web of Science and Scopus to include the journal in their data bases, but the procedure is proving extremely slow (requests were submitted in early 2015). We have just been contacted by JSTOR, so hope to be included in that archive soon.


Newsletter Thanks once again to Bob McDavitt, who continues to do a lot of hard work in producing the Metsoc newsletters. Regional meetings By my count, 31 seminars have been advertised, mostly to the Wellington and Dunedin groups. The number of things advertised is up from last year, but it would be great to see more activity outside Dunedin and Wellington. I encourage the VPs to get connected with local groups of-fering seminar series for this purpose. Conferences There has been no full conference this year, just today’s short event in combination with this AGM. Thanks again to MetService and Michael for helping with this. The reason there has been no conference is the forthcoming joint con-ference with the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) in February, which takes the place of our usual 2016 conference. This meeting with also be joined with the Australia-New Zealand Climate Forum. Planning for this joint meeting is well underway. The meeting will take place from 7-10th February at ANU, Canberra. The abstract deadline has passed, and guest speakers have been organized. A good number of abstracts were received, and notification about acceptance should come through before too long. The conference budget hasn’t been finalized yet, including the registration costs. The Society has the ability to provide a small number of grants to help with attendance costs to students and early career researchers, details which will be forthcoming soon. The conference itself will make various concessions as well. This is something for the 2017 committee to resolve, but I expect there to be a domestic NZ conference at the usual time late in 2017. The 2018 conference should be a joint meeting with the NZ Hydrological Society in Christchurch. -- Finally – this AGM just about marks the last contribution from my two-year term as President. I would like to thank the committee members from both years for their hard work and advice, without which my role would have been far more difficult. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the efforts over a number of years of three retiring long-standing committee members: Andrew Tait, Sam Dean, Jennifer Salmond. Daniel Kingston, President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (2016). 7. Appointment of Auditor Daniel proposed that the same auditor be appointed. There were no ob-jections. 8. Subscription rate. Daniel proposed that the rates remain the same. He noted that if we continue to have excessive profits we could consider a reduction. How-ever, the rates are low compared to other societies, the profit is a new thing, and we could spend more instead. There were no objections to keeping the rates the same. 9. Election of Officers Nominations for the 2017 Committee were: President – Sylvia Nichol Immediate Past President – Daniel Kingston Secretary – Katrina Richards Circulation Manager – Zoe Buxton and Lisa Murray (both absent) Treasurer – Gregor Macara Website Liaison – Stefanie Kremser


Newsletter Editor – Bob McDavitt Journal Editor – Nava Fedaeff, assisted by Jim Renwick Auckland VP – Petra Pearce (absent) Hamilton VP – Tim Gunn Wellington VP – James Renwick Christchurch VP – Adrian MacDonald Dunedin VP – Daniel Kingston General Committee – Michael Martens, Charles Pearson, Mike Revell, Lisa Murray Note: The work of the committee is supported by two paid roles: Peter Scholtens (Auditor) and Eddie Wealthall (web). As the candidates for Circulation Manager (Zoe Buxton, Lisa Murray) were both absent, this position was left open (to be confirmed). Auck-land VP Petra Pearce (absent) will also be confirmed by the committee. If Lisa Murray is not appointed Circulation Manager she may join the committee as a general member. [Subsequent to the AGM, Zoe Buxton has agreed to take the role of Cir-culation Manager. Lisa Murray will therefore be a general committee member. KR. 5 Dec 2016] There were no further nominations from the floor. Motion that “Those standing for uncontested positions be declared elected” proposed by Neil Gordon/seconded by Mike Revell – carried. 10. Other Matters. 10.1: Editorship of Weather & Climate: Jim Renwick noted that we need younger and dynamic people to be involved. Nava Fedaeff has taken on the job, assisted by Jim Renwick. 10.2: Bob McDavitt is looking for some trusted and willing members to add to those with permission to post to our facebook page. Nava and Gregor volunteered. 10.3: Andrew stated that our bank wants the signatories for our account to be listed in the AGM minutes. At the time of the AGM meeting they consisted of: Gregor Macara (incoming Treasurer), Sylvia Nicol (incoming President), Sam Dean (a Past President), Mike Revell (committee member). [Subsequent to the AGM, Zoe Buxton has agreed to take the role of Cir-culation Manager and will be a signatory to the bank account. The four signatories will be Gregor Macara (Treasurer), Sylvia Nicol (President), Zoe Buxton (Circulation Manager), Mike Revell (committee member). KR. 5 Dec 2016] The issue of dual electronic signatories was raised from the floor. This may involve bank charges or a change of bank. It will be looked into by the incoming Treasurer, Gregor Macara. Meeting closed at 5:45 pm with an expression of thanks from the out-going President Daniel to Sam Dean and Jenny Salmond (both absent) who (like Andrew Tait) are leaving the committee. Sam has been on the com-mittee since 2007, as a general member, secretary, president and past president. Jenny has served as Auckland Vice President and our Journal Editor. Our thanks were expressed in appreciative applause. The next AGM is expected to be in November 2017.


SPRING 2016 NIWA summary

A wetter and warmer than normal spring for many.

Rainfall Rainfall was well above normal (> 149%) in the Wellington region and eastern parts of Otago. Rainfall was above normal (120-149%) in parts of Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Nelson, Tasman and South Can-terbury. In contrast, rainfall was below normal (50-79%) in eastern parts of the Wairarapa.

Temperature Spring temperatures were above average (+0.51°C to +1.20°C) for many parts of the country. The excep-tion was parts of Northland, Wellington, Nelson, Tasman, inland Canterbury and eastern Otago where tem-peratures were near average (-0.50°C to +0.50°C).

Soil moisture At the end of November 2016, soil moisture levels were above normal for the time of year in Wellington, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Bay of Plenty, southern Canterbury, eastern Otago and Southland. Soil moisture levels were below normal for the time of year for northern Waikato, the East Cape, southern Hawke’s Bay and northern Canterbury.

Sunshine Spring sunshine was well below normal (< 75%) in parts of Manawatu, Wairarapa and Kapiti Coast, and below normal (75-89%) in Wellington and many inland parts of the North Island. Above normal sunshine (110-125%) was observed in Northland and the west coast of the South Island.

Overview

Overall, spring 2016 was characterised by mean sea level pressures that were lower than normal over New Zealand, and this contributed to an unsettled season for many parts of the country.

Rainfall

Rainfall was well above normal (> 149% of the spring normal) in the Wellington region and eastern parts of Otago. Above normal rainfall (120-149% of the spring normal) was observed in parts of Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Nelson, Tasman and South Canterbury. Rainfall was near normal (within 20% of the spring normal) for almost all remaining parts of the country. The exception was eastern parts of Wairarapa where rainfall was below normal (50-79% of the spring normal) for the season.

Soil moisture

Soil moisture levels were above normal for the time of year in Wellington, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Bay of Plenty, southern Canterbury, eastern Otago and Southland as a result of the abundant November (and spring) rainfall that was generally observed in these areas. In contrast, soil moisture levels were below normal for the time of year for northern Waikato, the East Cape, southern Hawke’s Bay and northern Can-terbury. Soil moisture levels were typically near normal for the time of year in remaining parts of the coun-try.

Temperatures

Temperatures were above average (0.51°C to 1.20°C above the spring average) in many parts of the coun-try including Southland, inland Otago, West Coast, and the much of the North Island north of Wellington. Temperatures were near average (-0.50°C to + 0.50°C of the spring average) for most remaining parts of the country including Northland, Wellington, Nelson, Tasman, inland Canterbury and eastern Otago. Only four stations (Timaru, Nugget Point, Appleby and Takaka) observed temperatures below their spring aver-age. The nation-wide average temperature in spring 2016 was 12.6°C (0.5°C above the 1981-2010 spring average from NIWA’s seven station temperature series which begins in 1909). This makes the spring of 2016 the 9th

-warmest spring on record.

Sunshine

It was a fairly dreary spring in parts of Manawatu, Wairarapa and Kapiti Coast where sunshine was well below normal (<75% of the spring normal), as well as inland parts of the North Island and Wellington which observed below normal sunshine (75-89% of the spring normal). In contrast, Northland and the west coast of the South Island enjoyed above normal sunshine totals (110-125% of the spring normal). Remain-ing areas of New Zealand observed near normal spring sunshine totals (within 10% of the spring normal).


Further highlights: The highest temperature was 34.8°C, observed at Gisborne on 23 November. The lowest temperature was -6.1°C, observed at Mt Cook Airport on 9 September. The highest 1-day rainfall was 176 mm, recorded at Milford Sound on 8 November. The highest wind gust was 182 km/hr, observed at Cape Turnagain on 29 November. Of the six main centres in spring 2016, Auckland was the warmest, Dunedin was the coolest, Christchurch was the driest, Wellington was the wettest and Tauranga was the sunniest. Of the available, regularly reporting sunshine observation sites, the sunniest four locations so far in 2016 (1 January to 30 November) were Richmond (2551 hours), Blenheim (2339 hours), Takaka (2288 hours) and New Plymouth (2228 hours).

Contact

For further information, please contact: Mr Chris Brandolino Principal Scientist – Forecasting, NIWA National Climate Centre Tel. (09) 375 6335, Mobile 027 866 0014.

NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ: SPRING 2016

This was another typically unsettled spring with a wide variety of weather, including some significant storms. Temperatures ended up generally warmer than normal, though typically there both major warm and cold spells.

SEPTEMBER

1st - Widespread morning fog in Christchurch, but no disruption at airport . 1st/2nd - Unusually warm for early September in eastern areas, with maximums above 20C in many places. (highest being 25C in Riccarton, Christchurch on 2nd) 4th - Northwesterly gales in many eastern areas and about Cook Strait. Worst in Dunedin, where several trees are blown over. 5th - Southwesterly gales near Westport fell a tree, causing disruption to SH67. 7th-10th – Southerly storm (see details below) 11th - Widespread frosts as high pressure covers most of NZ in wake of very cold southerly outbreak of previous days. -4C minimum in Turangi. 12th - Fog causes disruption at Hawkes Bay Airport. 16th-18th - Heavy rain causes flooding in southern North Island. (see details below) 25th/26th - Heavy rain in north of North Island, especially Coromandel Peninsula. (see details below) 27th-29th - Unseasonably warm temperatures in areas sheltered from the prevailing northeasterly flow over NZ during these days. High maximums include 22C in Whanganui (27th), 21C in Westport, Reefton, and Greymouth (29th), 19C at Manapouri (28th), and 18C at Secretary Island. (28th) 28th - Slips and flooding continues in Gisborne/East Cape area, as a result of continuing rain. Thunder-storms affect Northland and Auckland, with surface flooding in some of latter's suburbs. Wind gusts reach 74 km/hr in North Shore, Auckland. (equal to September record) Heavy hail gives a snow like blanketing to Whangarei. 29th - Evening thunderstorms affect inland Southland; downpour causes surface flooding in Kingston. 30th - Afternoon thunderstorms in North Canterbury and southern parts of Central Otago. Surface flooding on SH8 between Raes Junction and Roxburgh.

OCTOBER

1st - Foggy morning in many parts of Canterbury. Some thunderstorms in southwest of North Island and Central Otago; downpour causing flooding in Etrick and Roxburgh areas. 2nd - Thunderstorms in several areas, especially north of North Island. Funnel cloud seen in Huntly, where downpour causes surface flooding. Another thunderstorm results in flooding on Auckland's North Shore, while heavy rain and hail also causes flooding in Hawkes Bay. 3rd - More thunderstorms in northern and central areas. Funnel clouds seen from Taupo. 5th - Westerly gales in southeast of North Island, with a 180 km/hr at Cape Turnagain. 6th - Thunder and hail in northern and western areas of North Island, and later in parts of inland Canter-bury. Wind gusts fell a tree near Taupo, which crushes a dinghy. 7th - Thunderstorms from Hamilton northwards. Hailstorm in Nelson region causes damge to some or-chards.. Southwesterly gales lash the far north, with gusts of 109 km/hr in Kaitaia and 135 km/hr at Cape Reinga.


9th - Thunderstorms about Taranaki in morning. Some heavy rain for a time in parts of Canterbury (including Christchurch), during cold undercutting southerly. This southerly also brings snow to the high country, as low as 350m in parts in inland North Canterbury. (flurries in Hanmer) 10th - Northwesterly gales in far south, eg 150 km/hr gust recorded at Point Puysegur. Reports of a freak gust of wind destroying a floatplane in marlborough Sounds. 12th - Cold undercutting southerly over South Island brings snow to Southern Lakes area. Heavy wet snow around Queenstown/Lake Wakatipu overnight and in morning results in fallen trees and consequent power cuts. 40cm recorded at Remarkables skifield. Many roads are affected by the snow, with SH94 to Milford Sound and the Crown Range Road closed. Queenstown Airport's runway has to be cleared of snow before planes can use it. 14th - Thunderstorms about central NZ and later in Hawkes Bay. Hailstorm hits Motueka; heavy hail blan-keting the ground and damaging some kiwifruit crops. 17th - Unusually warm overnight in far south under cloud cover in a northwesterly flow. 13C minimum in Blaclutha is a new November record. 19th - Thunderstorms in parts of Otago, with a lightning strike damaging a retirement village in Mosgiel. 26th - Thunderstorms about central NZ during the early hours. Tornadoes reported in New Plymouth (some damage) and at Appleby, near Nelson. 28th-30th - Cold south to southwest change spreads over South Island on 28th and North Island next day, with fresh snow on ranges and high country. Secondary front on 29th brings more hail to west of Nelson region, also bringing snow well down on ranges there, including Takaka Hill Road. After clearance at night, the next morning is unseasonably cold with a 0c minimum in Takaka. Southerly flow over NZ dies out late on 30th. 31st - Thunder and hail in many northern North Island areas, including Auckland, due to convergences. Heavy hail (as large as $2 coins) blankets the ground in many parts of West Auckland.

NOVEMBER

1st - Unseasonably chilly start to the day in many areas, eg -1C minimum in Hanmer, 0C in Stratford, 3C in Warkworth, and 4C in Whangarei. 3rd - Afternoon thunder and hail storms in Canterbury. Heavy hail (about 7cm deep) causes some damage in Waimate, while lightning striking a tree starts a fire in Hornby, Christchurch. 4th - Some more thunderstorm activity in South Canterbury, with some surface flooding. (including parts of Timaru) 6th/7th - A period of heavy rain on South Island West Coast (6th) and north and west of North Island. (overnight 6th/7th) The rain causes a washout on SH6 in South Westland, and some flooding around Ham-ilton and Palmerston North. (50mm recorded in latter on 7th - a new record for November) The rain comes with thunderstorms, especially in Northland during the early hours. Three tornadoes reported in Bay of Plenty - about Katikati, Ohope, and Opotiki - with some damage reported in latter two occurrences. 11th - Some heavy rain about central NZ, with flooding in some Wellington suburbs. Chilly 11C maximum in Darfield as damp undercutting southerly affects Canterbury. 12th - Fresh snow on Canterbury mountains, as cold southerlies affect area. 14th-18th - Heavy rain then southerly storm about Cook Strait area. (see details below) 19th - Afternoon hailstorm in Waikouaiti, East Otago, with stones as large as a 10c piece. 21st-23rd - Warm west to northwest flow affects much of NZ, with well above normal temperatures, espe-cially in eastern areas. Highest temperatures are recorded on 23rd, with new November record maximums of 34C in Gisborne and Wairoa, 33C in Napier, and 32C in Hastings. Overnight minimums are also unusu-ally high, being in the mid teens in many places, with Rafurly's 16C a new November record. 24th - Much colder in Southland than previous days, as cool undercuting air replacing warm northwesterly air. Only 9C maximum in Invercargill, compared to highs in the mid 20s the previous day. 28th - Westerly gales about the far south, with gusts of 163 km/hr at Southwest Cape, Stewart Island, and 146 km/hr Puysegur Point. 27th - Cold and showery in west and south of the South Island, with snow on the ranges falling as low as 600m in the south. SH94 was briefly closed at the Homer Tunnel, while the Crown Range Road has a dust-ing. A brief thunderstorm with hail about Banks Peninsula late in the day. Gales lash exposed areas, with a new record high November gust of 106 km/hr in Westport. 29th - Westerly gales in exposed southeastern parts of North Island, eg 182 km/hr gust recorded at Cape Turnagain.

MAJOR EVENTS


7th-10th September – Southerly storm

After a generally mild start to spring, a very cold and strong southerly storm lashed NZ. During this period with severe gales in exposed eastern areas and Cook Strait and snow to low levels in many areas.

A mild northwesterly flow covered the country at first on the 7th. However a cold front swept up over the South Island during the day, followed by very cold southerlies with snow falling to low levels. A deep low developed to the east of the island by late in the day, strengthening the southerly to result in severe gales about exposed eastern coasts. These winds caused damage in the form of fallen trees (closing some roads for a time in Christchurch) and power-lines, cutting power to some areas. Le Bons Bay recorded gusts up to 167 km/hr.

On the 8th, low pressure to the east maintained a very cold and strong southerly flow over most of NZ. Daytime maximums were very low, with new September records broken in several places, eg Arthurs Pass (0C), Stratford (7C), Whitianga (9C), Dargaville (10C), North Shore, Auckland. (11C) Snow fell to low levels in the east as far north as southern Hawkes Bay as well as on the central North Island high country. In Wellington, snow fell in the hill suburbs, with a few flurries (along with hail and sleet) even reaching low lying parts of the city and Hutt Valley. Further north, there was a dusting on Mt Pirongia. The Desert and Rimutaka Hill Roads were closed for a time, while other roads around Mt Ruapehu were marginal. However, the Napier-Taupo Highway, badly affected by the severe snowstorm a month earlier, received little or no snow.

Severe southerly gales lashed many exposed areas, especially Cook Strait, forcing the cancellation of In-terislander and Wellington Harbour ferries. Gusts reached 146 km/hr at Mt Kaukau, 143 km/hr at Baring Head, 130 km/hr in Kaikoura, 102 km/hr in Hawera (a new September record), and 95 km/hr in Whanga-nui. Some trees were felled and shipping containers knocked over in Wellington.

On the 9th and 10th, a high in the Tasman Sea extended onto the South Island, but low pressure to the east maintained a strong, cold south to southeast flow over northern and central areas. Snow continued to fall on the high country, with some heavy falls in the back country west of Gisborne. Heavy seas with swells up to 7 metres prevented Cook Strait ferries from crossing for a second day on the 9th. In areas more sheltered from the southerly winds, very cold nights occurred, with low minimums including -6C at mt Cook Village (9th), -4C in Takaka (9th - a new September record), -3C in Appleby (10th), and 0C at Le Bons Bay. (9th) Even the far north didn't escape the chill, with Cape Reinga falling as low as 5C on the 9th.

Late on the 10th, the flow over the North Island eased, allowing the weather to clear.


Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 7 September to midday NZST 10 September in 12 hour steps are shown here.

16th-18th September - Heavy rain causes flooding in southern North Island

A spell of heavy rain affected the lower North Island during this period, with flooding and slips resulting, especially about the Kapiti Coast.

On the 16th, a low moved to lie southwest of the South Island, with a complex trough developing in the Tasman Sea and a strengthening, disturbed northwesterly flow over NZ. One front moved onto central NZ by late in the day, with rain setting in there and becoming heavy in the areas exposed to the northwest. (eg 67mm in Paraparaumu)

During the 17th, the front remained slow moving over central areas, with mild northwesterlies to the north (record high overnight minimums for September of 15C in Dannevirke and Waione, and 14C in Hawera and Kaikoura) and cooler southerlies to the south. Heavy rain persisted and resulted in flooding and slips, especially throughout the Wellington region. The Kapiti Coast was worst affected with roads and train ser-vices disrupted, while several houses had be pumped out by the fire service. Martinborough recorded a new


September high total of 73mm.

On the 18th, the front finally moved away, and with a low forming to the east of the lower North Island, a southerly flow affected the area. Rain continued about the central NZ areas exposed to the south, but eased with no more heavy falls. However, the total for the two-day period of the 17th/18th in Kelburn, Welling-ton ended up being 69mm - the highest two-day total since April 2014. To add to the disruption caused by the rain, Wellington Airport was also disrupted by low cloud and sea-fog on the same day.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 16 September to midday NZST 18 September in 12 hour steps are shown here.

25th September - Heavy rain in north of North Island, especially Coromandel Peninsula

A prolonged period of wet weather plagued northern and east areas of the North Island in late September, but one very wet spell stood out, drenching the Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland on the 25th.

The heavy rain was caused a slow moving front on the southern edge of a large, shallow low centred on Northland, with a moist east to northeast flow affecting the peninsula. The very heavy rain resulted in widespread flooding and many slips. Being on a Saturday, many holidaymakers were visiting the area and


several became stranded by the floodwaters which blocked SH25 south of Tairua. Four car occupants were also trapped by floodwaters in the Kauaeranga Valley near Thames. In both places, they could not leave until waters had receded by the next day.

The front weakened by the end of the day, with the rain easing. (though damp weather was to continue for several more days)

Mean sea-level analysis for midday NZDT 25 September is shown here.

14th-18th November - Heavy rain, then southerly storm about Cook Strait area

Two storms, firstly a heavy rain event about Wellington and then a southerly with severe gales and some more heavy rain, affected Central NZ during this period. The disruption caused by these events was accen-tuated by the fact that they hit in the wake of a severe earthquake which caused much damage along the Kaikoura Coast and to a lesser extent about Wellington.

A large low pressure system, which had moved into the Tasman Sea the day before, approached the South Island on the 14th. This allowed a strengthening, moist north to northwest flow to build over central NZ. Rain set in over the area, with heavy falls in the northwest of the South Island as a front approached. (123mm was recorded in Takaka and 70mm at Farewell Spit) Strong winds damaged trees and power-lines in Taranaki.

During the 15th, the front moved across the area, with heavy rain affecting areas about Cook Strait. Flood-ing forced the closure of SH6 between Nelson and Blenheim. However, northern areas of the Wellington region were worst affected by the rain, with torrential falls causing widespread and severe flooding. Some 500 homes in Porirua and Pukerua lost power due to a slip damaging power-lines. Both SH1 and SH2 were closed by flooding, with more than 90mm (about the equivalent of November's monthly average total) fall-ing in Hutt Valley stations. Several schools had to close for the day, disrupting NCEA exams.

Rain cleared firstly about Marlborough and later in the day around Wellington. However, a strong north-westerly flow persisted, with a new low forming just to the west of Fiordland. Moist southerly undercutting led to heavy rain in parts of Otago. This low became a complex system as it enlarged to cover most of the South Island during the 16th, while a west to northwest flow developed over the North Island. The unsta-bled airmass with clashing of cool and warm airflows resulted in some thunderstorms in Mid and South Canterbury during the afternoon, one storm in Ashburton resulting in large (up to size of $2 coins) hail, which fortunately caused little damage. Some thunderstorms also affected the southwest of the North Is-land, with a tornado reportedly damaging dome fences and trees in Waikanae.

By the 17th, the low moved to the east of NZ, allowing a strong cold southerly flow to cover the South Is-land and spread onto the North Island during the day. Snow fell on the mountain ranges of both islands and low as 700m in parts of the South Island, with up to 12cm recorded at Mt Hutt. The winds rose to gale-

force about exposed areas of central NZ, along with more heavy rain for a time, though not nearly as heavy as a few days earlier. In the earthquake ravaged Kaikoura region, largely spared by the previous rain event, recovery was slowed by the unpleasant conditions, with more slips adding to those triggered by the quake of the 14th. Overnight 17th/18th, the low moved further away to the east, with the weather clearing in east-ern areas. A disturbed west to southwest flow developed over the country on the 18th.



Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZDT 14 November to midday NZDT 18 November in 12 hour steps are shown here.

MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH: SPRING 2016

SEPTEMBER

The most significant feature of this month was the cloudiness of the second half, which resulted in a much lower sunshine than average. The first half, by contrast, was notable mainly for a very cold southerly outbreak from the 7th-9th. This brought severe gales and some damage to the city overnight 7th/8th, as well as hail and sleet on the 8th. A light dusting of snow settled on the Port Hills during the morning of that day. No other weather of note occurred during the first half. During the latter half of September, low pressure systems to the north and east resulted in onshore flows which kept the weather cloudy much of the time. A thunderstorm affected areas to the north of the city lat on the 30th. Night-time temperatures were above normal, contributing a warmer than average month.

OCTOBER

This was an unsettled month, with many troughs passing over. Rainfall was consequently a little above normal. Temperatures alternated between cool southerlies and warmer west or northwesterlies, ended up somewhat above average. Cold, wet weather on some days brought snow to the high country (especially the 9th, 12th, and 29th), while in contrast the 16th-19th was a warm period under a northwesterly flow.

NOVEMBER

Monthly temperatures, sunshine, and rainfall totals ended up close to normal (though tem-peratures were slightly on the warm side), but these disguised a another changeable month with numerous active systems crossing over. The city was affected by a thunderstorm dur-ing the afternoon of the 3rd, with a lightning strike starting a fire in Hornby. Thunder and hail also affected parts of Mid Canterbury on the 16th (large hailstones in Ashburton) and Banks Peninsula on the 27th. The 12th and 17th were cold, wet days with snow on the ranges, whereas the 23rd was a very warm day with maximums reaching nearly 30C.


Snow Season Outlook 2016 - September Update - New Zealand - Sportsman-like September

5th of September 2016

Spring doesn't get much better than blue morn-ings Source:: The Re-markables

New Zealand Seasonal

Snow Outlook | The Grasshopper The 2016 season in New Zealand has matured like a fine wine. After a mild and wet start to the sea-son the snow started to pile up during the second half of July as a succes-sion of fronts moved in from the west. However, Eastern Canterbury was still left thirsty for snow. August has worked its magic and equalised con-ditions across the coun-try. A few much needed

lows have tucked in to the east of the South Island driving up the base in the Canterbury High Country. Re-sorts closer to The Divide have also continued to receive a few top-ups keeping it funky ‘n’ fresh – but we haven’t seen quite as much snow as the second half of July. August’s cold temperatures have helped to maintain an excellent snow quality. We’ve also seen plenty of blue bird days between the storms which have given us plenty of time to appreciate some of the best views on the planet as a backdrop.

A u g u s t U n d e r t h e M i c r o s c o p e

The shift to snowier conditions in the east came early in the month. A low tracking over the northern half of the South Island drove heavy snow into Eastern Canterbury from the 3-5th of August. The sun came out to play from the 6th to 11th as high pressure reigned supreme. With very cold conditions and excellent nat-ural snow we were basking in our own glory. A cold front moved in from the west on the 12th dishing out some light snow along The Divide before morphing into a weak low over the Cook Strait on the 13th. This drove additional snow into Canterbury. From the 16th to the 20th we saw a return to mostly fine conditions under a high. The high was booted out by a front moving in from the west on the 21st that bought some ugly r**n to lower elevations along The Divide. On the 24th a low brushing by to the west gave further snow to Otago before Canterbury got its turn on the 26th wrapping up what was a varied month for all.

BOM Synop-tic maps sum-marising the key weather events to af-fect New Zea-land last

month. So

just how

much snow

do we have?


The snow base depth is remarkably even across the South Island. Treble Cone (122cm/152cm), The Re-markables (100cm/140cm) and Mount Hutt (123cm/143cm) will head into spring on an even footing. These kind of depths are more or less average for the time of year but fall short of last year’s snow bonanza along The Divide. Meanwhile across the Cook Strait snow depths in the North Island are drool-worthy. Whaka-papa has an upper mountain base of 237cm. Last year’s act is hard to follow but it is still above average.

W h a t e v e r d i d h a p p e n t o L a N i n a ?

A weak La Nina was on the cards this winter but it never really got going – neutral conditions have persist-ed into August. The international climate model guidance suggests that neutral conditions will persist into spring. This gives us a slightly higher chance of easterlies compared to either La Nina or El Nino years. Positive Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies around New Zealand have cooled over the last month which is good news. However, they remain weakly positive in the Tasman which has a pocket of much warmer water off the coast of South East Australia. The background climatic drivers are giving off a weak signal as to what we can expect in September. So, let’s take a look at the models to get an idea of what could happen as we move into the home stretch.

M o d e l F o r e c a s t

A low, which will bring heavy rain to Australia, is forecast to head our way during the first week of Sep-tember. It will bring mild northerly winds and rain to The Divide with lesser amounts further to the east. A cold front should move in from the south-west around the 6th giving us a chance of snow and kicking out all of the mild yucky air. A high will then dominate until the 10th. Beyond that, the models are hinting at another low moving in from the Tasman bringing further rain to The Divide with a colder and snowier peri-od on the cards around mid-month.

F i n a l W o r d s

We have a month or two left in the season. As a general rule we can expect temperatures to slowly increase as we go into the second half of September. Mixed precipitation or rain will become a lot more likely over the next few weeks. The model forecast for the first couple of weeks of September is not overly optimistic. However, even tak-ing into account the rain I don’t foresee any major problems. We have enough snow on the ground to cruise into the end of the season in style. In my first seasonal outlook of the year I forecast a slightly worse than average season. I am happy to see that things turned around in the end. The season has been average overall but we’ve had some great days thrown in the mix.

High winds buffet South

7 September 2016

A catamaran capsizes in Macandrew Bay. Photo: Hay-den Wilson

The wind caused a catamaran to topple over at Macandrew Bay, in Dunedin. It was in its moorings, and locals tried to put it back upright, said Bruce Duncan of the Macandrew Bay boating club.


A fallen tree blocks Great King St in Dunedin. Photo: Gregor Richardson

Gusts of up to 130kmh are roar-ing up the South Island this evening, cutting power and bringing down trees. (Abridged) https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/hundreds-without-power-dunedin

Wild weather topples trees and cuts power

7 September 2016 Two people have been taken to hospital after gale force winds brought a tree down onto a car near Christchurch. The Fire Service said the pair were taken to hospital after the incident in Tai Tapu.

Strong winds topple a tree at The Gardens Corner in Dune-din. Photo: RNZ / Ian Telfer Several hundred homes in Can-terbury were without power as gusts of up to 120 km/h hit the area. Up to 3000 homes had been without power earlier in the evening. More snow on the way

A heavy snow warning was in place for Taupo and Taihape, where snow could fall down to 300m above sea level. Snow was also forecast to fall on most of the South Island passes, as well as the Desert Road and the Rimutaka Hill Road. (Abridged) http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/312773/wild-weather-topples-trees-and-cuts-power

Strong gusts across Wellington, power out in Canterbury and Otago and heavy snow blankets central

North Island

8 Sep, 2016 Snow has fallen across Otago, Canterbury and parts of the North Island causing a number of road closures including the Desert and Rimutaka Hill Rds. There are re-ports of snow flurries in Welling-ton. The NZ Transport Agency announced just after 5.30am that State Highway 1's Desert Rd from Turangi to Waiouru was closed because of snow and ice. A tee that brought down power lines on Dr's Point Road. Photo /


MetService forecaster Peter Little said the country was in for a bitterly cold day with snow and winds con-tinuing to pound the north. Hurricane-force winds and gusts of more than 160km/h slammed Canterbury overnight, and the Port Hills got the full brunt of it. About 1100 homes around Christchurch remain without power this morning after powerlines were downed in the powerful winds. (Abridged) )http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-herald-focus/news/headlines.cfm?c_id=1504018

Power still out to hundreds as wild weather continues

8 September 2016 New Zealand has been hit by rain, snow and huge wind gusts since yesterday afternoon. Detours are in place for The Desert Road on State Highway 46 and 47 - but there are no detours for the Lewis Pass. Rimutaka Hill Road reopened after a fallen tree and power lines were cleared. Ferry sailings across Cook Strait were cancelled today due to severe weather and rough sea conditions, with swells of up to 10m. MetService said more snow showers were expected on the Desert Road overnight with between 2cm and 5cm settling before 9am tomorrow. In the South Island, snow and ice were still playing havoc with roads, with Porters Pass and Arthurs Pass closing. MetService had forecast 10-15cm of snow for parts of Porters Pass, with smaller amounts forecast for Lin-dis Pass and Milford Road.

The wind whips up waves along Wellington's South Coast. Huge swells in Cook Strait forced ferry services to cancel all sailings. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Power cuts

Winds gusting up to 160km/h overnight knocked out power lines across Canterbury, cutting power to 3000 homes and busi-nesses. In the North Island, about 300 properties faced power cuts after similarly strong winds caused outages.

The view from the road to Coro-net Peak this morning. Photo: Supplied / Celia Horner Wind causes damage, injuries Emergency services went to the scene of three landslides this morning on the Milford Sound highway, caused by fallen trees. The landslides wiped out two utilities sheds and a vehicle, and caused a gas leak at tourism company Real Journey. Two people who were injured when the winds brought another tree down on a car in Tai Tapu were taken by ambulance to Christ-church Hospital.

Wind gusts of up to 161km/h were recorded at Le Bons Bay in Banks Peninsula, MetService said. (Abridged) http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/312807/power-still-out-to-hundreds-as-wild-weather-continues


A huge tree in Cranmer Square was one of a number in Christchurch toppled by strong winds. Photo: RNZ / Maja Burry

Fierce winds cut power,

topple trees as wild

weather moves north

CHARLIE MITCHELL AND

MICHAEL DALY

8 September, 2016

Snow is expected to low

levels in both islands on

Thursday as a southerly storm con nues to blast the country. Snow is expected to fall possibly as low as

100 metres in Mid and North Canterbury during Thursday morning, MetService said. It could

be heavy between 300m and 500m.

Further south, heavy snow fell in Central Otago. By 9.30pm Wednesday snow was se ling at Lake Waka -

pu level in Queenstown.

KARL ARGYLE Snow on the ground in the Queenstown suburb of Frankton on Wednesday night.

Southern ski fields were wel-coming fresh snow. Remarka-bles ski area manager Ross Lawrence said fresh snow had fallen since 5am on Wednes-day. "This is what winter is all about...It's nice to remember it's still winter."

MetService duty forecaster Neal Osborne said strongest winds recorded since midnight Wednesday included gusts of up to 120kmh in Wellington, and up to 130kmh at the top of Mt Kaukau in the city. Gusts of 130kmh hit Le Bons Bay on Banks Peninsula and up to 110kmh at Castlepoint in Wairarapa. A quick and furious front has moved steadily from the deep south up the country, creating heavy gales and rain. It hit Christchurch about 6.30pm. City firefighters attended 35 call-outs, most to fallen trees, be-fore 9pm. Gusts nearing 160 kmh were recorded on Banks Peninsula and the Port Hills. Wind chills reached -7C in those areas. It got as low as -10C in the Canterbury high country. At Christchurch's Sugar-loaf, it dropped from 11C to 7C on Wednesday as the southerly advanced towards the city. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/83983773/snow-falling-with-cold-snap-picked-to-bring-gales-and-huge-

seas

Day of hail, snow, power cuts, road closures across Wellington

8 September, 2016 TOM HUNT, TALIA SHADWELL AND DAMIAN GEORGE

Spring has officially sprung but you wouldn't know it in Wellington as hail, wind, rain and even snow ham-

mer the capital.

The weather earlier closed Rimutaka Hill Road, and warnings were in place for the Wainuiomata Hill.

As power was restored to about 3000 homes affected earlier in the day in Porirua and Upper Hu , fresh

outages hit Maungaraki, in Lower Hu , and later Waitangirua and Cannons Creek.


The Rimutaka Hill Road reopened in the a ernoon, though there were warnings that snow flurries fore-

cast to con nue through the evening could close it again.

MetService labelled the stormy blast a "one-in-five-year event", and it came close entering the record

books for one of the city's coldest September days. A MetService spokeswoman said the temperature

reached a high of 7.9 degrees Celsius on Thursday. If it had managed only 7.5C, it would have been one of

the city's 10 coldest September days.

Kelburn registered a low of 2.7C about 9am on Thursday, while Lower Hu could manage only 2.9C about

the same me. Wellington woke up on Thursday from the blustery night, where southerly winds reached

105kmh at Wellington Airport and 133kmh at the high peak of Mt Kaukau, MetService meteorologist April

Clark said. .

MetService's camera shows snow on Rimutaka Hill Rd at 8am on Thursday morning.

The waverider buoy at Baring Head that measures the strait's wave heights clocked a maximum 10-metre swell at 10pm Wednes-day – the average was around 6m. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-

post/news/84027375/Snow-hail-wind-thunder-what-happened-to-

spring

Storm brings snow, big seas, gales around Gisborne

9 September, 2016

THE southerly storm arrived in Gisborne with a vengeance overnight, whipping up 6.5-metre swells in Poverty Bay and dropping two metres of snow in some high-country areas. MetService reported the southerly gusted from 60-80kph. Eastland Port reported a peak swell size at the wave buoy in the bay of 6.5 metres at around 10am today. Higher country farmers, who have lambing under way, expect to have suffered losses.

“There is a lot of snow about on the more elevated properties,” an AgFirst consultant said.

SNOWED IN: Up at Bushy Knoll Road, Hangaroa University stu-dent Melissa Bennett hopes it doesn’t last too long because she needs to get back to University by Monday in her car. Pictures sup-plied http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2465520-135/a-last-blast-of-winter

Foggy morning makes way for

fine day in Christchurch

12 September, 2016 SAM SHER-

WOOD


Early morning fog reduced visibility to 100 metres at Christchurch Airport, MetService said.

KAMALA HAY-MAN/FAIRFAX NZ Fog hovering over Christchurch on Monday morning. (Abridged)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/84146734/Foggy-but-fine-

day-ahead-for-Christchurch

Heavy rain warn-

ings in place for

lower North Is-

land

16 Sep 2016

A slow-moving active front is bringing heavy rain to parts of the lower North Island on Saturday.

Supplied Otaihanga Domain, on the banks of the Waikanae River in Kapiti, north of Welling-ton.

This amount of rain is likely to make riv-ers and streams rise rapidly, and could cause slips and sur-face flooding, Met-Service warns. It's already doing damage with fire bri-gades called to pump out flooded houses on the Kapiti Coast, north of Wellington. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/84324526/heavy-rain-on-the-way-for-the-west-coast-sun-for-the-east

Torren al rain hammers Wellington and Wairarapa causing slips and flooding

18 September 2016

Surface flooding caused issues for drivers along a sec on of State Highway 2 near Wellington.

MetService said the rough weather was set to ease on Sunday morning, but more rain is expected this

a ernoon in already sodden areas. Photos are on next page MetService meteorologist Derek Holland said Wellington city had got the brunt of the weather with nearly 60mm falling at Kelburn and 46mm at Wellington Airport in the past 24 hours to 1pm. In the same period 40.8mm fell in Lower Hutt, 38.6mm in Levin and 36mm in Paraparaumu. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wairarapa/84378691/torrential-rain-hammers-wellington-and-

wairarapa-sh2-blocked-by-slips-flooding


ROSS GIBLIN/FAIRFAX NZ A slip closed a lane on Middleton Rd, Wellington.

In Wairarapa, south of Mas-terton, the same pattern is expected: easing rain, fol-lowed by rain later in the day. In Marlborough, the rain should ease later in the day.

BROOKE WRIGHT Flood-ing at the Lower Hutt river bank carpark.

New weather station for Porirua

28 Sep Porirua residents will soon receive more reliable weather forecasts with the imminent installation of an automated weather sta-tion on Elsdon Park. Cur-rently Porirua’s weather forecasts are based on da-ta gathered from Mana Island where the current weather station is located. “We’ve known for a long time that Porirua’s climate is warmer and sunnier than what was being re-

ported – now we can have a true reflection of our weather,” said Mayor Nick Leggett who approached the MetService earlier this year. “Like people everywhere, Porirua residents follow our weather, online with smartphones and media web-sites and on television every night. When we move outside in warm or cold weather, what we feel often doesn't echo what's reported to us. Many people have approached me over the years to find out exactly how our temperature is monitored, where and by whom.”

After discovering the Porirua weather station was not based at the heart of the city, Mayor Leggett put in train a process to change that. At the same time NIWA approached the Council requesting a site to record changes in the long-term weather of Porirua. The Council collaborated with both NIWA and the Met-Service enabling one weather station to serve both organisations which also helped to reduce costs. “Soon we will have a fully functioning automated weather station operated and maintained by the Met-Service meaning Porirua’s weather will be reported accurately across a range of media.” The station will measure and record a range of weather data including wind speed and direction, air and soil temperature, humidity, rainfall and warmth. The Council is collaborating with the MetService, NIWA, Greater Wellington Regional Council, Wellington Water and Wellington Rural Fire Authority. Each organ-isation will benefit in different ways from the data. The $46,000 cost to install the station will be met largely by NIWA ($20,750) with PCC, GWRC and WWL each contributing $7500 and the Wellington Rural Fire Authority contributing $5000. “I understand that this is the first automated weather station in the country with multiple users on a shared site. Its location on Elsdon Park provides an added opportunity for our local colleges to use live weather data to help their students have a better understanding of climatology and meteorology locally,” Mayor Leggett said. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1609/S00916/new-weather-station-for-porirua.htm


Why is Picton not on the weather map?

28 Sep, 2016

Picton is not on the cur-rent MetService weather map John Reuhman is a mem-ber of the Picton Marlbor-ough Sounds and Have-lock Visitor Economy Steering Group and wants the town included in Met-Service forecasts. Twenty South Island cities and towns are on the forecast-er's map, but Picton is not one of them. Reuhman can't understand why such an important arrival and departure point isn't one of them. Picton was the only land transport entrance and exit point on the South Island, yet it had never featured on the national weather, he said. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11718322

Weather Bombs Are Spectacularly Destruc ve

September 21, 2016 by Julia Layton

In a study recently published in the journal Science, researchers traced a rare type of seismic ac vity de-

tected in Japan in 2014 to a "weather bomb" on the other side of the planet. According to the authors, as

the storm pounded the North Atlan c, it generated S-waves, a kind of faint Earth tremor never detected

before, that registered in Japan.

The bomb phenomenon, known as "bombogenesis" (seriously), occurs in extratropical cyclones, low-

pressure systems that form where warm and cold air masses meet. In unstable atmospheric condi ons,

like high winds, the temperature gap can create a low-pressure area between the two fronts. The low-

pressure area draws in the surrounding warm and cold air, and pressure con nues to fall. The air flows

faster and faster toward the low-pressure core, eventually forming a cyclone.

In your typical extratropical cyclone, core pressure drops at a rate of maybe 10 millibars (mb) to 15 mb in

24 hours. When it drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours, it's a weather bomb. Explosive Intensification

More precisely defined, a bomb is a "middle-la tude storm (low pressure system) that has a central pres-

sure fall of at least 1 hPa (mb) per hour for a period of 24 hours (depending on la tude)," writes Dr. John

Gyakum in an email. Gyakum, professor of Synop c and Dynamic Meteorology at McGill University in

Quebec, co-authored, with Dr. Frederick Sanders at MIT, the 1980 paper that defined the meteorological

"bomb."

h p://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281980%29108%3C1589%3ASDCOT%3E2.0.CO%3B2.

The "explosive intensifica on of a surface low pressure system" is associated with an "explosive increase

in surface winds, o en to near, or above, hurricane force," Gyakum writes.

Weather bombs have produced some of the most destruc ve storms on record. In Ohio's 1978 "white

hurricane," central pressure dropped 24 millibars in a stunning nine hours, leading to hurricane-force

winds, temperatures of minus 100 F (minus 73 C) with wind chill, houses buried in snow and 51 dead. It

was declared a Federal Disaster.

"Residents of Northeast Ohio went to bed … with rain and fog," writes Dave Andersen on Cleveland.com,

"only to wake up to the worst winter storm ever recorded in Ohio."

Gyakum refers to it as the "Cleveland Superbomb."

Weather bombs are "inherently very destruc ve," he writes, "owing not only to the poten al for destruc-

ve hurricane-force winds, but also to the poten al for heavy rainfalls."


In coastal areas, he adds, there are also hurricane-level storm surges — temporary increases in sea level.

The Na onal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra on reported storm surges of up to 12 feet (3.7 meters)

in the "Superstorm" of 1993, which wreaked havoc from Florida through the Northeast. The day before

coming ashore, core pressure dropped 1 mb to 2 mb per hour. When the bomb crossed Florida's Gulf

Coast, it produced the most devasta ng flooding on record for a Gulf of Mexico winter storm. It later pro-

duced 6-foot [1.8-meter] snowdri s in Alabama and swallowed at least 18 houses along the Long Island

coast.

Catastrophic storms are almost historical characters in their own right, leaving indelible marks on the

places they affect. Here, we cover five of history's most destruc ve storms, including the Tri-state Torna-

do of 1925 and the Great Hurricane of 1780.

In the 35 years since Sanders and Gyakum introduced the weather bomb, research has revealed more about the storms, "particularly with respect to a clustering of several of these dangerous low pressure systems in both time and space," Gyakum writes.

"These clusterings (or "cluster bombs”) were associated with the unusually persistent stormy weather of

the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 over the North Atlan c Ocean."

In January and February of 2014, at least 14 bombs went off in the North Atlan c. During a weather bomb

in December of that year, Scotland recorded a 144 mph (232 kph) gust — in hurricane terms, high Catego-

ry 4 winds.

The same month, a weather bomb between Greenland and Iceland triggered S-waves that registered in

Japan.

As Thomas Sumner explains on Science News, powerful winds create massive ocean swells, and "when

two opposing ocean swells collide, the meet-up can send a pressure pulse down to the ocean floor. The

pulse thumps the seafloor, producing seismic waves that penetrate deep into the planet." During World War II, the U.S. and New Zealand tested tsunami bombs off the New Zealand coast. They actually worked pretty well. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/newzealand/9774217/Tsunami-bomb-tested-off-New-Zealand-coast.html

http://now.howstuffworks.com/2016/09/20/weather-bombs-are-spectacularly-destructive

Wave-like clouds form over surfing town Mt Maunganui

27 Sep, 2016

Mt Maunganui is well known for its idyllic waves rolling in from the Pacific Ocean.

But local surfers got more than they could hope for during a recent flat spell as the clouds in the skies

above the surfing haven began to mimic the ocean below.

Snapping a photo of the strange occurrence, local surfer Ben Haarmann was stunned to view a wave-like

forma on of clouds ap-

pearing above New Zea-

land's aptly named

'Surfer's Paradise'.

Surf's up? Photo: Ben Haarman

Weatherwatch's Philip Duncan was able to shed some light on the bizarre cloud formation. "The rolling, wave-like cloud formations are also known as billows," Dun-can said of the clouds, known in scientific circles as Kelvin-Helmholtz

clouds. According to Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel in the United States, "they are the atmospheric equivalent of those great breaking waves that you sometimes see on the ocean".


The breaking atmospheric waves occur in an environment with a large amount of vertical wind shear and stable air. In this case, winds at the top of the cloud layer are moving faster than the base of that same layer which causes the top to crash downwards in a curling manner after it hits the stable layer above. The rolling motion created by this type of wind shear also causes turbulence for aircraft. https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/32735628/wave-like-clouds-form-over-surfing-town-mt-maunganui/#page1

New weather station for Porirua

28 Sep Scoop

Porirua residents will soon receive more reliable weather forecasts with the imminent installation of an au-tomated weather station on Elsdon Park. Currently Porirua’s weather forecasts are based on data gathered from Mana Island where the current weather station is located. “We’ve known for a long time that Porirua’s climate is warmer and sunnier than what was being reported – now we can have a true reflection of our weather,” said Mayor Nick Leggett who approached the Met-Service earlier this year. “Like people everywhere, Porirua residents follow our weather, online with smartphones and media web-sites and on television every night. When we move outside in warm or cold weather, what we feel often doesn't echo what's reported to us. Many people have approached me over the years to find out exactly how our temperature is monitored, where and by whom.”

After discovering the Porirua weather station was not based at the heart of the city, Mayor Leggett put in train a process to change that. At the same time NIWA approached the Council requesting a site to record changes in the long-term weather of Porirua. The Council partnered with both NIWA and the MetService enabling one weather station to serve both organisations which also helped to reduce costs. “Soon we will have a fully functioning automated weather station operated and maintained by the Met-Service meaning Porirua’s weather will be reported accurately across a range of media.” The station will measure and record a range of weather data including wind speed and direction, air and soil temperature, humidity, rainfall and warmth. The Council is collaborating with the MetService, NIWA, Greater Wellington Regional Council, Welling-ton Water and Wellington Rural Fire Authority. Each organisation will benefit in different ways from the data. The $46,000 cost to install the station will be met largely by NIWA ($20,750) with PCC, GWRC and WWL each contributing $7500 and the Wellington Rural Fire Authority contributing $5000. “I understand that this is the first automated weather station in the country with multiple users on a shared site. Its location on Elsdon Park provides an added opportunity for our local colleges to use live weather data to help their students have a better understanding of climatology and meteorology locally,” Mayor Leggett said. ends http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1609/S00916/new-weather-station-for-porirua.htm

Washout: Heavy rain causes flooding in Auckland, Northland

28 Sep, 2016 NZ Herald

Wild weather has caused streets and houses to flood in Auckland and Northland this afternoon. Emergency services also rescued two people who were trapped on the side of a swollen creek in Northland., at Piroa Falls, in Maungaturoto.

Flooding on Salas Place in Pa-pakura. Photo / Ian Patuwai

More than 200 lightning strikes have been recorded in the watch area between 3.30pm and 4.30pm. (Abridged) http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11718631


Cyclone expected to smash South Australia

28 September 2016 Wild weather is expected to hit South Australia from midday, with flood watches in place across the state. Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) regional director John Nairne said the state needed to be pre-pared because it was "going to get a bit of bang out of the trough that comes through before the low ar-rives". "This is a cyclone," he said. It is expected to hit the West Coast near Ceduna at about midday (local time), with waves of up to 11 metres expected to batter the coast. BoM forecaster Mark Analak said he had never before seen such a forecast for South Australia. "It's a big one, I must say I've been forecasting here in Adelaide for the best part of 15 years and I can't recall wind strengths around a low pressure system moving onto the coasts of this strength," he said. State Emergency Service chief executive Chris Beattie said significant power outages were expected. "There is absolutely no doubt there will be powerlines down and SA Power Networks crews will be stretched with this event," he said. "This is one of the most severe weather events this state has faced in recent history."

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/314392/cyclone-expected-to-smash-south-australia

South Australian storm heading for New Zealand

30 September 2016 A storm that cut power to the entire state of South Australia this week is expected to hit New Zealand on the weekend - but nowhere near as badly. The state-wide outage happened after se-vere weather knocked out three transmission lines and 22 towers.

A satellite image shows the

blackout that across South Aus-

tralia Photo: Twi er / Weather

WA http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/314568/south-australian-storm-heading-for-new-zealand

Rain eases in Huntly after floods and slips 2 October 2016 The rain which caused floods and slips in Huntly this afternoon has stopped and the water is subsiding,

says the Fire Service.

Flooding at Riverview Road in Huntly. Photo: Supplied: Travis Hart Heavy rain caused flooding on Great South Road, Riverview Road and Mary Street. Riverview Road resident Brad Loveridge said a heavy down-pour caused the river to rise sig-nificantly in a short space of time. The Fire Service earlier tweeted that Riverview Road in Huntly was in danger and cars were at risk of being washed into the Waikato River.


There are several small slips along the western side of State Highway 25 between Thames and Coromandel, but the Transport Authority said they were all passable.

Heavy rain has caused slips on the Kopu-Hikuai Road. Photo: Facebook: Thames-Coromandel District Council Auckland Coromandel Meteorologist Derek Holland said 30mm of rain fell in the Coromandel today, and peo-ple should remain vigilant. "Anywhere in the north of the country there's saturated ground, and a localised heavy shower will cause problems maybe slips or surface flood-ing, so everyone just take care and keep up to date with the latest forecast."

About 2500 houses in north Auckland lost power this morning due to a suspected lightning strike. (Abridged) http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/314706/rain-eases-in-huntly-after-floods-and-slips

Relentless rain brings flooding, slips, power cuts as storm crosses North Island

2 October 2016, KELSEY WILKIE/Stuff.co.nz

Firemen work to clear Mary St in Huntly a er a heavy downpour on Sunday.

Torren al rain and thunderstorms are moving over the top of the North Island, hi ng already saturated

ground and bringing flooding and slips.

Two homes have been evacuated a er a slip in Huntly, in north Waikato. Both houses were on Riverview

Rd.

KELSEY WILKIE/FAIRFAX NZ Flooding in Huntly, Waikato on Sun-day after-noon.

There were also reports of hail fall-ing in central Hawke's Bay. Met-Service Meteorologist Hannah Moes told NZME there was an isolated storm in the area, which was quite active, just before 5pm. Residents described overflowing gutters and a carpet of hail on the ground. There was surface flooding across Porangahau rd...and Ruataniwha Rd. A number of shops on Waipukarau's main street had reported flooding, so crews had worked to pump out


water and help with salvag-ing. They also worked to preserve several homes which had also been affect-ed. After the storm, Waipu-karau resident Richard Har-ding said his rainfall gauge measured that 10mls had fallen in ten minutes.

Deanna Rintoule Main Street flooded in Waipukurau, Hawke's Bay.

AUCKLAND FLOODING

The heavy rain also flooded homes across Auckland's North Shore on Sunday morning. Torbay resident Megan Wilson said her road had become a "raging river" with trees and a barbecue float-ing past her house. A MetService spokesman said Mairangi Bay on Auckland's North Shore had weathered the area's heaviest

localised downpour - 21mm of rain fell between 9am and 10am.

Adam Holder Surface flooding around dumspers at Wairau Park, in Auckland's North Shore.

A Vector spokesman said it had been an "unusually busy" day for the North Shore, with power outages in Campbells Bay, Castor Bay and Forrest Hill. Power was expected to be restored about 2pm. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/84870478/relentless-

rain-brings-flooding-power-cuts-as-storm-crosses-north-island

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462&objectid=11721189

The small South Island town that's New Zealand's new sunniest spot

4 October 2016 18 October 2016 Joy Kachina Richmond is officially New Zealand's sunniest spot. Photo taken in Golden Bay, near Takaka, which has had the third highest number of sunshine hours.

Looking to spend summer in New Zealand's sunniest spot? You might want to pay a visit to this little town at the top of the South Island. Richmond - population 14,000 - has had the most hours of sunshine in 2016 and looks likely to remain in the top spot for the rest of the year. The sunshine data, released by Niwa, shows Richmond has had 2057 hours of sunshine in the year to October - more than 180 hours ahead of its closest rival. Blenheim was in second place with 1873 hours, fol-lowed by Takaka (1809 hours) and Lake Tekapo (1785 hours). Nelson has had 1809 hours of sunshine, but Niwa


doesn't include data for recording stations within 12 kilometres of one another in its rankings. While not known as a thriving metropolis or cultural hub, Richmond's climate is putting the Tasman Dis-trict town on the map. Located about 20 minutes south of Nelson, Richmond is en route to the region's three national parks, popu-lar beaches, rivers and wineries. Niwa climate scientist Petra Pearce said while Richmond was well out in front heading into summer, "anything's possible". "We don't want to come to conclusions too quickly because we've still got three months of the year, but Richmond's been in first place for a while now."

Pearce said it wasn't a particularly sunny September across the country. Tauranga, Hamilton and Welling-ton had their cloudiest September on record. "That was mainly due to the easterly systems that we had coming across most of the country throughout the month." Pearce said whether high levels of sunshine was a good thing or not "really depends on what industry you're in". "If you're a holidaymaker going to the beach, of course more sunshine's a good thing. But if you're a farmer looking at your pastures, maybe it's not."

The Richmond sunshine recording station was installed in May last year and 2016 is the first time the town's been included in official statistics. http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/84955642/the-small-south-island-town-thats-new-zealands-new-

sunniest-spot

Methane Rise Caused by Biological Sources

6 October 2016 by Viva Bolova, Eatglobe Source: Royal Holloway, University of London; NIWA

Australian sheep fitted with mechanisms that collect and measure exhaled methane The recent rise of methane lev-els in the atmosphere is driven by biological sources and not by fossil fuels, a recent study suggests. The study was car-ried out by an international team of atmospheric scientists, led by Euan Nisbet, from Roy-al Holloway, University of London. It analysed the isotop-ic composition of methane and concluded that wetlands and agriculture must be responsible for methane's rising levels. Methane is one of the most po-tent greenhouse gases and a

major contributor to climate change. The amount of methane in the atmosphere has increased by about 150 percent since 1750. Driven by the gas and coal industries, methane levels grew through most of the 20th century, and, since 2007, they have been increasing even faster. Scientists believe this recent growth is caused mostly by biological sources. According to the study, the hot, wet tropics are the key source for atmospheric methane growth. The gas increase in the tropics is in response to the changing weather patterns and comes from tropical wetlands such as swamps and bogs. Rice fields, cow burps and other agricultural factors are also contributing to the increased emissions. Agriculture and wetlands are presented as a main methane source by another study as well: earlier this year, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) – a New Zealand research institute – shared that fossil fuels should be ruled out as a cause for methane growth after 2006. According to NIWA, the source for the recent methane increase is methane produced by bacteria, of which the most likely sources are natural, for example livestock. NIWA cites agriculture as the most likely source for the rising methane levels based on studies, which have


determined that, after 2006, methane originated in Southeast Asia, China and India – regions dominated by rice production and agriculture. The good news about agriculture as a main source for the rising methane levels is that scientists can find a

way to reduce methane production in agri-cultural practices, and research is already taking place. However, there is also some bad news associated with both of these studies: Global warming could result in more methane from natural sources such thawing permafrost.

Wetland cows in Wairarapa, New Zea-land

Dave Allen, NIWA

http://www.eatglobe.com/news/climate/

Should weather forecasters Niwa and MetService li the veil on data?

10 October 2016 LOUIE DOUVIS Dom post

Our tax dollars fund public weather services – but are we missing out because our forecasters have to

make money? RACHEL THOMAS inves gates.

We like talking about weather in New Zealand.

It's a core part of our daily news cycle – it some mes even makes the headlines.

MetService is the official provider of public weather forecasting infor-mation, as contracted by the Govern-ment.

Naturally then, the facts and figures behind what makes up our weather are precious. Our taxes help to pay for these facts and figures, but our major weather forecasters – MetService and Niwa –

only show us a certain amount of de-tail before they start asking for money.

NIWA A Niwa weekend weather forecast providing a short-term weather outlook. Niwa is increasingly competing with MetService in the weather forecasting business.

That's because they have to make mon-ey. The Government has told them so. So if we're paying, who owns the data these forecasters collect? Both Niwa and MetService say they do.

FAIRFAX NZ Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce says a review into open weather data will "rely heavily" on how the availability of New Zealand's weather data

compares to the rest of the world.


Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce isn't so sure, and has commis-sioned a report to see if a core level of observational data should be made availa-ble. "We've got to consider the funding settings and who pays for what."

He wants to know if open weather data in New Zea-land is limited "because of the way we've set our sys-tem up". PROFIT MANDATE HAS LED TO FORE-CASTERS COMPETING

Climate scientist and Victoria University Professor James Renwick says the mandate to make money caus-es problems. Firstly, it means there have to be restrictions on free data. "If they just gave away their stuff to anybody they would be shooting themselves in the foot."

Secondly, the two organisations, both trying to make a profit from a country of 4.5 million, "naturally start-ed competing". "You have this mixed model where they are partly funded by the Government but you're also required to make a profit."

Both the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Niwa, and MetService were set up in 1992: Niwa as a Crown Research Institute and MetService a state-owned enterprise. When it came to weather, Niwa was told to stick to long-term prognostication and MetService to concen-trate on short-term forecasting. Despite that, Niwa launched its Niwa Weather app more than three years ago "as part of our outreach activ-ities arising from our climate and hazards research," spokeswoman Susan Pepperell says. About the same time, MetService began producing a monthly outlook, including for rural areas, putting it in direct competition with Niwa over its rural forecasting efforts. Renwick has insight into both these organisations. He was a MetService forecaster and research meteorolo-gist for 13 years before shifting to Niwa in 1992 as a climate researcher, where he stayed for 20 years. Renwick recalls when the organisations were created and says there was an expectation Niwa and Met-Service would collaborate. "That was a bit naive really.There's a lot of things about this work that could be more efficient."

MetService spokeswoman Jacqui Bridges says that MetService has to be "socially responsible" and turn a profit but, in doing so, can pick and chose what data is made publicly available. "It comes down to a judgement call about what should reasonably be provided to the public versus the po-tential commercial value."

Pepperell says for Niwa, in cases where the costs of data collection, quality control, storage and distribu-tion are high, it will charge. "This is typically for businesses seeking the data to be repackaged and supplied for a particular purpose." Renwick would prefer Government funding cover all the observational costs, "then no one would have a problem with releasing it [freely] as meeting those costs would have already been accounted for". WHY FREE UP THE DATA?

Encouraging innovation in the meteorological forecasting sector is a priority, Joyce says. If data can help this process, then there may be justification to distribute this information more openly. He says the Government should encourage private businesses in the sector. "You get smaller, newer pro-viders with different innovation."

Independent Canterbury forecaster Tony Trewinnard of Blue Skies says many people check weather fore-casts on their smartphone now, so he "can't see a lot of benefit" to the public in distributing short-term weather data any wider. However, when long-term forecasters Niwa are "gatekeepers of that data, that's when it's wrong". "That's overly restrictive because it stops the development of products that could make a difference to our economy." Independent forecaster Philip Duncan of Weather Watch says New Zealand needs to rise to international


standards. "What exists in New Zealand doesn't exist anywhere else on the planet."

He feels lifting the veil would allow more innovators to enter the market and develop valuable new in-sights. "What scientists could do with this data is way beyond what I could comprehend. [There are] things the next generation could dream up which don't exist because we want Niwa and MetService bosses to make money."

Joyce says the review and report will look at what happens internationally. The United States' National Weather Service provides a huge amount of near real-time weather data free of charge. SO WHAT ABOUT THE OVERLAP?

When asked whether the report will address any overlap between the organisations, Joyce says: "That's not the primary focus."

The minister is quick to shut down questions on the issue. "There will always be a bit of overlap. What I'm more concerned about is to ensure there's opportunity for other players to have the opportunity to compete and provide innovative weather products. "I don't want to spend too much time debating whether Niwa and MetService are far enough apart from each other."

The report will be carried out by an independent party, which has yet to be decided. - Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/85026527/should-weather-forecasters-niwa-and-metservice-lift-the-veil-on-data

Editorial: Why do we need both MetService and Niwa to provide weather forecasts?

12 October 12 2016, PAUL GORMAN / STACY SQUIRES With two state-owned agencies forecasting the weather there is room for confusion in the public's mind. Here motorists attach chains to their vehicles at Arthurs Pass during a snowstorm in July. OPINION: It was meant to be a clean split. A state-owned enterprise, MetService, would carry on provid-ing a national weather forecast and warnings service funded by taxpayers, while a Crown research insti-tute, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa), would pick up the pure science role with an eye to commercialising new ideas.

That was in 1992. Since then those lines have become blurred, especially over the past few years as Niwa has moved aggressively and largely un-checked into the weather-forecasting business. Niwa was never supposed to become a provider of daily weather forecasts for the public. That was meant to be the role of MetService and of private busi-nesses, such as Canterbury-based Blue Skies and Auckland's Weather Watch. It is easy to understand how, as Niwa began widening its commercial ser-vices, it might aspire to selling special-

ised forecasts for farmers and other primary sector clients. Its giant Wellington supercomputer FitzRoy – which is the envy of MetService and research organisations – has given Niwa a big advantage, even though researchers from elsewhere can access it. But as a result of Niwa's ambitions, taxpayers are partially funding two competing state-forecasting agen-cies. Niwa is hardly coy about its intentions, saying on its website FitzRoy produces six-day forecasts "that help you find the best time to do all the important things you want to do". Clearly, Niwa's desires go beyond specialised commercial forecasting and put it on a collision course with MetService. Not that this duplication of public resources seems to bother Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce. After lobbying from forecaster Philip Duncan of Weather Watch, Joyce has commissioned an inde-pendent review of the ownership of New Zealand weather data and if more should be made available to the public. Joyce says he does not want this review to get bogged down in "a bit of overlap" and whether "Niwa and


MetService are far enough apart". Instead he wants to ensure the two are not hogging information that, if available, might allow new players into the market. Joyce is absolutely right to be concerned about the appropriateness of withholding data purely to allow two agencies to profit from it. But he is wrong to try to minimise the MetService-Niwa forecasting double-up. We think current or historic weather readings should be freely available. In many cases these have been col-lected using equipment paid for by the public or recorded at thousands of sites across the country by public volunteers over many years. For private bureaus like Blue Skies and Weather Watch, access to, for example, near-real time weather ra-dar images rather than those older than five minutes would allow them to provide better predictions. In the United States, where there are many private forecasters, the National Weather Service provides free access to vast quantities of such data. We believe public weather data should be just that – public. But the scope of this review needs to go much further and consider the forecasting "overlap" Joyce appears happy to brush over. http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/85147912/editorial-why-do-we-need-both-metservice-and-niwa-to-provide-weather-forecasts

Tasman fruit growers count cost of heavy hailstorm

11 Oct ADELE REDMOND MARTIN DE RUYTER/ FAIRFAX NZ

A sudden heavy hailstorm coated Motueka in white and has come at a terrible me for kiwifruit growers.

A Caltex Motueka employee said the heavy hailstorm started at about 3.15pm on Friday and lasted for "a

good 20 minutes". "First of all it was gentle hail and then she got heavier and heavier. It covered all the

ground out there. A lot of cars came in to shelter for a bit."

Tim O'Connel: Hail from the big storm in the Motueka area.

"It was very scary for people. There's al-ready been one accident.

it's not looking promising for kiwifruit growers still assessing the damage from another hailstorm which hit the region just last week. Mainland Kiwi Growers Entity director Evan Heywood, who grows ap-ples and kiwifruit in the Motueka area, said it was unlikely the hail had done much damage to the kiwifruit. (Abridged)

Brian Waddington Hail in High St, Motueka, on Friday afternoon.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/cropping/85330282/nelson-region-soaked-

by-heavy-rain


Queenstown hit with unexpected spring snow

11/10/2016 By Caley Callahan

Queenstown has woken to a blanket of snow that has caused power outag-es in and around Arrowtown, Dalefield, Lower Shotover and parts of Glenorchy.

One 7am flight out of Queenstown Airport was delayed.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2016/10/queenstown-hit-with-unexpected-spring-snow.html

Winter's last bite: Snow chaos in south

12 October 2016 NZ Herald

Heavy snow is wreaking havoc across parts of the South Island today. Roads are impassable and there are widespread power cuts. Overnight snow has fallen to low levels, bringing trees down on power lines and leaving thousands without electricity in and around Arrowtown, and the Lower Shotover. Some schools delayed their start times and air travel out of Queenstown Airport was dis-rupted. Snow is continuing to fall on the Haast Pass and road maintenance crews are trying to keep the highway open.

S n o w d i s r u p t s r e s i d e n t s a n d d e l i g h t s t o u r i s t s

MetService tweeted an early morning photo of Queenstown Airport blanketed in snow. At least one flight to Auckland was delayed. An airport spokeswoman said the runway was cleared of snow at 7am and planes were able to fly in and out of the airport as scheduled. The MetService last night issued heavy rain warnings for northern Fiordland, southern Westland, the head-waters of the Otago lakes and rivers, where up to 130mm was expected. MetService forecaster and meteorologist Andy Downs said the south of the country would see the worst weather this week. (Abridged) http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11726968

Tropical Cyclone Activity expected to be average this season. 14 October 2016 MetService

The Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season formally starts on the 1st of November, with an average number of named cyclones expected in the upcoming 2016/2017 season under the influence of neutral to weak La Niña conditions.


Every year MetService works alongside NIWA and national meteorological services from other Pacific nations to produce a Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the upcoming season. The outlook for the 2016/2017 season indicates 8 to 10 named cyclones are expected in the Southwest Pacific, with 5 to 6 of those ex-pected to be severe (Category 3 or higher). The average number of named tropical cyclones in the South-west Pacific (including the Coral Sea) is about 10 per season, based on a 30 year average. This year, with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle tending to weak La Nina conditions, tropi-cal cyclone activity is expected to be near normal for most Pacific Island nations, but elevated activity is expected in the west of the region in and near the Coral Sea. For New Zealand, which is affected by about one ex-tropical cyclone on average per season, the risk is also expected to be near normal. Around the globe, the role of monitoring and warning for tropical cyclones is performed by a WMO desig-nated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) or a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), depending on the location of the cyclone. TCWC Wellington, based at MetService, has warning responsibility for the area that extends from 160E to 120W between 25S and 40S. Although it is very rare for a tropical cyclone to form in the TCWC Wellington area of responsibility, intense tropical cyclones do arrive from the neighbouring Brisbane or Nadi areas and they often retain their named cyclone status until near 30S. Sometimes an ex-tropical cyclone will approach New Zealand and Severe Weather Watches and Warnings need to be issued. Even if land areas are not affected, warnings are still issued for vessels over the open sea.

Infographic highlighting key messag-es from 2016-17 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook. Image courtesy of JMA. Although the tropical cyclone season typically runs from the 1st November until the end of April, cyclone devel-opment doesn’t always follow the calendar and cyclones can form out-side the season. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1610/S00040/tropical-cyclone-activity-expected-to-be-average-this-

season.htm

Sizzling Dunedin leads way

18 October 2016 By Vaughan Elder

Jeremy Harvey (22), of Canada, en-joys the balmy Dunedin weather yes-terday by cutting a few moves at the skate park near the Dunedin Railway Station. PHOTO: GREGOR RICH-ARDSON Dunedin was the hottest place in New Zealand for much of yesterday as temperatures reached a scorching 26degC. According to the MetService web-site, the temperature in Dunedin reached 26degC at 1.30pm and hov-ered around that until 3pm, when Hastings took over as the hottest place in New Zealand. MetService meteorologist Ciaran Doolin said the temperatures spiked due to a phenomenon known as the fohn effect, which happened when there was a west/northwest flow.


"The air gets forced up over the divide and precipitates out its moisture as it goes over the ranges. "As it comes down the other side it's quite dry and it warms. "So you get a dry, warm wind and typically quite strong as well.'' (Abridged) https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/sizzling-dunedin-leads-way

Report predicts ho er summers, more severe weather

22 October 2016 Weather patterns which led to the 2013 drought are now 20 percent more likely to hit New Zealand than 130 years ago, a new study has found.

Dry paddocks near Ranfurly and

Kyeburn in Maniototo. Photo: RNZ / Ian

Telfer

The Victoria University study, published

in the Journal of Geophysical Research:

Atmospheres, looked into the likelihood

of extreme weather hi ng the country

today, compared to the late nineteenth

century.

One of the study's lead researchers,

Luke Harrington, said the frequency of

severe weather was increasing, and

was likely to intensify because of green-

house gas emissions and ozone deple-

on. Mr Harrington said the 2013 drought had a huge impact on New Zealand.

"According to Treasury es mates, the drought cost the New Zealand economy at least $1.3 billion. It's al-

so an important case study to help New Zealanders understand how the nature of extreme events is

changing for New Zealand. People need to understand what is going on for them to be able to make

changes."

NIWA and the universi es of New South Wales and Oxford also helped with the study. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/316268/report-predicts-hotter-summers,-more-severe-weather

West Auckland hammered by hail 31 October 2016 A slow-moving, extremely localised thunderstorm has battered west Auckland with thick hail.

Hail fills a trampoline in a west Auck-land backyard. Photo: Supplied / Mel Bailey-Reeve MetService said the storm cell was now sitting just north of Albany, heading towards Kaipara harbour. Residents of Te Atatu and other pockets of west Auckland said on social media the hail began falling just before 1pm and continued unrelenting for up to half an hour. MetService forecaster Lisa Murray said the storm was isolated and slow-

moving. "The rain gauges in the region have rec-orded a good 15 millimetres ... likely in

25 to 30 minutes. "It's just north of Albany now and it's weakening as it goes."

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/316929/west-auckland-hammered-by-hail


Weather: Hail the size of 20c pieces, thunderstorms hammer West Auckland

31 Oct 31, 2016 A huge cloud over parts of the upper North Island brought with it hail up to the size of 20c pieces as well as thunderstorms. Te Atatu Peninsula was pelted with hailstones about the size of large peas at 1pm. Similar weather conditions were reported in isolated areas further west, such as the Waitakere Ranges and Helensville.

P h o t o s : H a i l

h i t s N e w Z e a -

l a n d

And Whenuapai residents experienced thundery downpours this afternoon. Philip Duncan said sea breezes had brought in the wild weather and similar conditions were likely in other parts of the region later today. "These hail showers had been moving up the country since Friday. But this [shower] happened so quickly."

Herald reader Tanya Lee Vranjes said the hail on Candia Rd in Swanson was so deep cars and trucks were sliding and she had to put her ute into 4WD. But MetService said the thunderstorms and hail were not severe enough to trigger a warning. "We're not concerned for flashing flooding, the soil's too dry," meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said. "Today is an excellent example of 'sunshine and storms' in Auckland. Two sea breezes collide, and if the atmosphere is unstable, localised showers form, sometimes even thunderstorms. "In between, the weather is fine; underneath these showers, localised heavy rain can fall. (Abridged) Hail man. Photo / Helen Morrison http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11738937

Wellington students launch high altitude weather balloon into near space LUCY SWINNEN 1 November 2016

TOM ETUATA MetService supervisor Steve Knowles looks on as Taita College stu-dent Raven Duffin holds the weather balloon and Natano Taula assists.

22 students selected from Mana, Heretaunga, Naenae, Taita, Waiopehu Colleges and Wellington High School launched a high alti-tude bal-loon from Paraparaumu on Friday afternoon 17 kilometres into the atmosphere. They tracked the journey of the 350g helium balloon as it travelled through the earth's troposphere before it burst just below the stratosphere and coasted back down to earth. The whole endeavour was tracked live with GPS and cameras, capturing photos of New Zealand and gave students hands on experience with science and technology.


Meteorologists from the MetService and educators from Space Place helped the group build the payload, a styrofoam box equipped with the camera, gps and radio transmitter, last Thursday at the Carter Observatory in Wellington. MetService launches three balloons from three different locations across New Zealand each day to com-plete weather forecasting and modelling. * Video from the launch can be viewed: ustream.tv/channel/g4b64tTAsx4

- The Wellingtonian (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/85756382/Wellington-students-launch-high-altitude-weather-balloon-into-

near-space

2016 set to be NZ's ho est year

4 November 2016

Beaches could be popular with Kiwis in coming weeks, as Niwa is predicting warmer-than-average temperatures fo

r November and December. Photo ODT

National temperatures for 2016 are set to break records, Niwa scientists say. The first 10 months of this year have been 1C warmer than normal in New Zealand, according to data collected from seven spots around the country. And the trend is set to continue, as Dr Brett Mullan, principal climate scientist at Niwa, is predicting warmer-than-

average temperatures in November and December. "We expect it to be very warm next week and summer to be above average, but not sizzling."

The current hottest year - 1998 - was 0.9C warmer than average in the 10 months to October and 0.8C hot-ter overall. Mr Mullan said there were two reasons 2016 had been so hot in New Zealand - a rise in global tempera-tures and more northerlies. Higher temperatures in New Zealand mirrored a global trend upwards and this year temperatures around the world would "probably hit the record books". Winds from the north brought air in from the subtropics and in 2016 there had been an abundance of nor-therly patterns, he said. MetService forecasted more northerlies and temperatures in the high teens and low twenties for New Zea-land's main centres this weekend, ahead of Guy Fawkes celebrations. "Everyone wants the perfect clear skies. They will not get but it should be dry," meteorologist April Clark said. According to the Niwa data, every month this year apart from August had seen warmer temperatures than usual, and February was particularly hot at 2C above average. (Abridged) https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/2016-set-be-nzs-hottest-year

La Nina to possibly bring a dry summer for South Canterbury farmers

7 November PAT DEAVOLL

South Canterbury farmers can expect a La Nina weather pattern over the summer to bring another dry spell for eastern properties. A La Nina weather pattern, as forecasted by the National Institute of Water and At-mospheric Research (NIWA), usually brings more north-easterly winds and reduced rainfall to the south and south-west of the South Island. Therefore, some areas, such as central Otago and South Canterbury, including the eastern Mackenzie Country, can experience drought in both an El Nino and La Nina. Warmer than normal temperatures occurs


over much of the coun-try during La Nina, alt-hough there are region-al and seasonal excep-tions. The cyclonic pattern expected for the com-ing three months will bring higher pressure than normal to the south and south-east of the country leading to more annoying easterly or north-easterly winds. NIWA predicts La Ni-na to become less inva-sive as next year pro-gresses.

Ron Lindsay South Canterbury and the eastern Mackenzie Country could be looking at another dry sum-mer.

A warmer November than normal is predicted for South Canterbury, says MetService, with the coming week (November 14-21) expected to be hot for this time of the year. MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said the Tasman Sea has been driving most of the weather recently and this pattern was forecast to continue through November. "A mixture of low pressures and westerly winds is expected," she said. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/86170503/la-nina-to-possibly-bring-a-dry-summer-for-south-

canterbury-farmers

Farmers happy as Niwa says chances of drought unlikely

11 Nov 2016 Feed is already growing well thanks to recent rain and farmers are hoping for a good season. A drought this summer is looking unlikely as Niwa predicts a low chance of abnormal dry periods. Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said the long-term forecast predicted rainfall until January would be above aver-age or average. "There is only a 20 per cent chance that the rainfall will be below average when we look through to Janu-ary. The soil right now in Hawke's Bay is very moist."

He said easterly winds from the Pacific had brought a lot of rain in the past two months. "For this time of the year the soil moisture is normal if not above normal. It has alleviated the dry soil from last summer."

Hawke's Bay Federated Farmers president, Will Foley, said they were pretty happy with the amount of moisture in the ground to date, especially in the lead-up to summer. (Abridged) http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462&objectid=11746137

Five houses in Wellington threatened by landslips, as heavy rain sweeps North Island

12 November 2016 MICHAEL DALY AND TALIA SHADWELL

Rangiora Ave, Kaiwharawhara resident Kesara Rathnayake said his wife was feeding their 15-month-old baby when she heard a strange noise around 8.30am. She looked outside and saw mud saturating the drive-way behind the house. Rathnayake grabbed the car and his family and packed off to a neighbour's after calling the Fire Service. Meanwhile, heavy downpour sweeping across the country has caused surface flooding that has swamped a train station. Flooding in the subway closed the Ngauranga railway station on the outskirts of Wellington city, along the Hutt Valley Line.


ROSS GIBLIN/FAIRFAX NZ Heavy rain-fall took its toll on Rangiora Avenue.

More than 50mm of rain was recorded over 12 hours in West Coast, Taranaki, Wellington and Golden Bay, MetService said on Saturday morning.

Colder air coming up from the south had pushed warmer, moist air off central parts of the country, MetService meteorologist Tom Adams said. "When you get colder air meeting the warm air, that's when you get heavy rain."

ROSS GIBLIN/FAIRFAX NZ Rangiora Avenue, north of Wellington.

A low pressure had formed on a front that had swept up the country. "The at-mosphere likes to rotate them when you put two strongly different types of weather together," Adams said. That slowed the front down, which was what had happened over Wellington and other central areas. (Abridged)

MONIQUE FORD/FAIRFAX NZ The Ngauranga subway was flooded, forc-ing the closure of the railway station. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86392591/heavy-rain-in-

central-areas-thunderstorms-in-the-

far-north

CuriousCity: How MetService forecasts the country's ever-changing weather

13 Nov 2016,

Met Service Meteorologist Lisa Murray provides an insight into Wellingtons famously windy weather The business of predicting the weather is fraught with challenges, meteorologist Lisa Murray explains. Yet those who attempt it take great delight in doing so. It is not as simple as just looking at a computer screen. A total of 240 MetService employees work around the clock in New Zealand, Australia, Asia and Europe, evaluating conditions and global weather patterns to tell you whether you need an umbrella, a woollen jersey or sun screen. Perhaps more importantly, the service puts out crucial weather alerts and warnings, and provides daily fore-casts to airline pilots through the Civil Aviation Authority. Sitting in her office at MetService's headquarters in Wellington, Murray passionately conveys how her


team compiles forecasts for its website and distributes them to various televi-sion channels here and in Australia.

CAMERON BURNELL/FAIRFAX NZ MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray pro-vides an insight into Wellington's famously windy weather.

"To make a forecast, you need observa-tions – what's happening right now. Be-cause if you don't know what's happen-ing right now, you're not going to get it correct into the future," she says. "The second thing you need are these weather models that we have. So, these are models that simulate what's happen-ing in the atmosphere right around the globe. We buy in different models into MetService and compare these models to see which one is doing best over New Zealand."

New Zealand is no ordinary beast when it comes to weather either. In some parts of the world the climate may not change for weeks, even months, but New Zealand's location on the globe means things can change dramatically. "We're an island, in the middle of an ocean, with great big mountains, so we have quite unusual weather and quite some extremes as well," Murray says. "We have a lot of micro-climates, so areas five kilometres down the road can have very different weather from what you have right here, and New Zealanders know that. They know the type of weather for their particular micro-climate."

Given how tricky the task can be, Murray is happy with the accuracy rate of MetService forecasts. She would not be drawn on exactly what that overall rate was, but noted its snow warnings this year had been 100 per cent correct. "The closer you get to the day, the better it's going to be. You have more confidence in the weather models then, as well, especially when all the models agree. "The hardest part is when the models are different, and this is when it's so important to have the forecast-er involved, someone who has experience in New Zealand, because they can look at the models, know what usually happens in New Zealand and apply our terrain [to make predictions]."

WINDY WELLINGTON TITLE OVER-BLOWN?

CAMERON BURNELL/FAIRFAX NZ Wel-lington's wind needle in Kilbirnie gets a fair workout, but the wind does not move it any more on average than in some other parts of the country. You may not believe it if someone told you Palmerston North was windier then Wel-lington, but take it from a meteorologist –

that is a fact. OK, we may be cherry-picking the numbers a little here, but "windy Wellington" really is less windy, on average, than many other cities in New Zealand. "People have this impression that Wellington's windy all the time. It certainly isn't," Murray says. "We get some really fine days – dead calm, with very little wind – as well."

Meteorologists refer to "wind run", the amount of wind that passes through a weather station during a cer-tain period of time, and it turns out some places, such as Palmerston North, about two hours' drive north-east of the capital, are windier. That is not to say their winds are more ferocious than Wellington, however. "When we get gusty, especially those north-westerlies, we get really strong winds, really decent gusts," Murray says. "At the airport around spring time, it's not unheard of to have gusts of 135kmh. Mt Kaukau blows stronger, and up the southern coast. http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/85417326/curiouscity-how-metservice-forecasts-the-countrys-everchanging-weather


2016-2017 Cyclone Season predicted to be “average”

14 November 2016

According to the Na onal Ins -

tute of Water and Atmospheric

Research (NIWA), the region can

expect eight to 10 tropical cy-

clones this season, compared

with 18 last season.

The Red Cross Movement in the

Pacific is busy preparing for the

upcoming cyclone season with a

series of pre-disaster mee ngs

and pre-posi oning of stocks.

The 2016-17 season, which runs

from November to April, is pre-

dicted to be average with an ele-

vated risk for Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Niue and the Solomon Islands. Reduced risk is expected for Tu-

valu. (Abridged)

h p://www.ifrc.org/en/news-and-media/news-stories/asia-pacific/fiji/2016-2017-cyclone-season-

predicted-to-be-average-73679/

Supermoon to bring king des across New Zealand as wild winds hit

13 November 2016 PHILIP MCSWEENEY

The brightest supermoon in 68 years is set to cause king des throughout the country when it lights up

the sky this week.

However, it's not the larger-than-usual des that are of any concern: rather, the winds of up to 140kmh

that are expected to blast through central regions.

"Supermoons" occur when a full moon lines up with the sun, coinciding with the point in the moon's ellip-

cal orbit when it is closest to Earth.

The effect is a greater gravita onal pull

on the ocean, which results in "king

des" - the highest des of a given

year.

These usually occur between four and

six mes a year.

EAMON PARKES The most recent supermoon seen from Richmond, Nel-son. According to a Metservice meteorolo-gist Tom Adams, however, they are not forecasting any exceptional tidal

events. The difference between a regular full moon tide and king tide is negligible, he said. "There'll be a small effect on tide, but winds reaching 140kmh is more important." The winds are expected to reach gale-force in exposed areas throughout the Wellington, Wairarapa and Marlborough regions. The top of the South Island can also expect severe weather, with heavy rain forecast for Nelson and Buller. Adams stressed the two events are "completely coincidental. The moon isn't affecting the weather."

Auckland King Tides Initiative highlight on their website the importance of being careful while observing these super tides. "Water levels during these King Tide events will be higher than normal, so take extra pre-


cautions when walking along the coast, particularly if bad weather is also forecast." (Abridged0

http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86408506/Supermoon-to-bring-king-tides-across-New-Zealand-as-wild-

winds-hit

Severe weather expected for earthquake-hit regions, 140km/h gusts forecast 14 November 2016

The Met Service has warned that severe weather is likely to hit regions affected by Monday's earthquake, with wind gusts of up to 140km/h expected. Rain is forecast to be heaviest around Nelson, Buller, Westland, the Marlborough Sounds, Ta-ranaki and Tararua Rang-es. Kaikoura, badly hit by the 7.5m earthquake, is likely to miss the worst of the weather, the Met Service reports on its website. However, strong norther-lies, which will reach gale force in the Cook Strait, will affect areas between Kaikoura and Manawatu and Whanganui.

The Kaikoura region was hit badly by the quake. Credit: NZDF

The Met Service also warned of perigean high tides with flooding possible due to high tides, especially around Nelson at 10.30pm. (Abridged) https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/33205074/severe-weather-expected-for-earthquake-hit-regions/#page1

Thousands of homes without power a er severe weather hits Taranaki

BRITTANY BAKER AND DEENA COSTER

15 November 2016

Taranaki's blast of bad weather looks set to con nue, with an ac ve line of thunderstorms crossing Buller

and Nelson forecast to bring lightning and heavy rain to New Plymouth on Wednesday.

The MetService warning

comes a day

a er Taranaki fire crews

were called to about 30

weather-related jobs dur-

ing fierce storms on Mon-

day night that le thou-

sands in the region with-

out power or water.

Gusts of wind and torren-

al rain caused havoc,

knocking down trees,

downing power lines and

damaging property, with

South Taranaki par cular-

ly hard hit.

GRANT MATTHEW/Fairfax NZ Travellers may well struggle to get directions from this sign which was uprooted during the storms overnight on Monday.


Meteorologist April Clark said Mt Taranaki could expect up to 150 millimetres of rainfall between Monday evening until midday Tuesday. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/86457077/severe-weather-knocks-out-power-to-

thousands-of-taranaki-homes

New storm heads for Wellington, snow warning for passes

16 November 2016 TALIA SHADWELL AND MICHAEL DALY

As if a major quake, tsunami threat, floods, slips and a night and day of being hammered by a blustery

squall isn't enough - there's a gale-force southerly brewing in the capital. And drivers heading across the

South Island's mountain passes are facing the possibility of snow.

Overnight Monday winds of up to 130kmh had ba ered the Rimutaka Hill Rd, and caused scaffolding and

iron to fly in the city's southern suburbs.

Slips that followed the a er-

shocks and first round of in-

clement weather con nue to

cause disrup ons to the region

on Wednesday, with one block-

ing access to the Plimmerton-

Kapi leg of the Kapi train

line.

NZTA After flooding across Welling-ton on Tuesday, the city faces another storm on Thursday.

MetService is keeping an eye on a southerly storm due to take its grip in Wellington on Thurs-

day after a rocky few days in the city, which was cut off from the north for a period on Tuesday due to flooding. The forecaster is not calling it a severe weather event yet, but expects to update its forecast throughout Wednesday morning.

MetService Meteorologist Mariken van Laanen said a southerly change was expected in Wellington by midday Thursday, with gale-force winds forecast.

ANTHONIE VAN RIJN/SUPPLIED Flooding hit SH2 in Wellington heading south on Tuesday.

"It will bring rain, however we are not expecting any severe weather with this at the mo-ment." The southerly is forecast to be "very strong," she said. "We

are not expecting anything like yesterday's weather, but southerly winds rising to gales in exposed places."

A snow warning has been issued for the South Island's main mountain passes, affecting the remaining open road between Christchurch and Picton. Rain on Lewis and Arthurs Passes is expected to turn to snow near the summit tonight, MetService warns. (Abridged) http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86505941/only-a-brief-respite-from-the-rain-for-some-drenched-central-areas


Forecast wild weather makes itself felt in Wellington's Lowry Bay

17 November 2016 GED CANN AND DAMIAN GEORGE

Supplied Waves as high as a bus pummel Lowry Bay

A road along the Lower Hu coast

has reopened a er being shut on

Thursday night, a er high waves

washed debris across the road.

Ahead of high de, police

closed Marine Parade between

Point Howard and Sunshine Bay as

a precau on, a spokeswoman

said.

MacDonald said police had just

arrived on the scene, and he had

rarely seen the waves this bad.

Supplied High tide at Point Howard in the Wellington suburb of East-bourne. Eastbourne's pounding follows an after-noon of hail pelting Porirua and Hawke's Bay

The MetService has predicted rain to set in for the Wellington region, with southerly gales and a chance of thunder. MetService meteorologist Erick Brenstrum said rain and strong southerly gales were ex-pected for Wellington for most of Thursday. "This will get better over-night and it should become fine tomorrow."

Hail at Brendan O'Carroll's home in Whitby, Porirua. Photo: BRENDAN O'CARROLL/DOMPOST

Porirua School was flooded on Thurs-day for the second time in a week, with parents called to pick up their children as waters rose following an-other deluge. The school was also flooded on Tues-day, but was empty as students had been told to stay at home. Principal Vanessa Hendry said Thursday's flooding was the third this year. It was also flooded in May. THUNDERSTORMS IN HAWKE'S BAY

Earlier on Thursday afternoon, Havelock North was struck by a heavy hailstorm, with thunder and light-ning also witnessed. Claire Flynn, MetService meteorologist, says there are still showers littered over the


north so there is a chance of more hail. "However, the showers will gradually ease overnight and tomorrow morning." (Abridged)

Severe flooding at Porirua School on Thursday. PHO-TO: KRIS DANDO/ FAIR-FAX NZ

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/86573477/forecast-wild-weather-arrives-as-hail-hits-porirua

NIWA diverts ship to earthquake areas 17 Nov 2016 NIWA’s flagship research vessel Tangaroa has been diverted to survey the seabed in areas affected by Monday’s earthquake. Chief Executive John Morgan announced today that Tangaroa will be in the Cook Strait, Marlborough and Kaikoura regions from tomorrow morning and the survey would last up to five days. “It is important to find out as soon as possible what has happened to the sea floor since this week’s earth-quake. NIWA is happy to provide its expertise and leading-edge scientific equipment to build up a picture of what happened and what might have changed.”

Voyage leader and NIWA marine geologist Dr Phil Barnes said the magnitude 7.8 earthquake early on Monday morning potentially triggered submarine landslides, and may have produced fault scarps on the continental shelf. (abridged) http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1611/S00041/niwa-diverts-ship-to-earthquake-areas.htm

'Thunderstorm asthma' - could it happen here?

23 Nov, 2016 A perfect storm causing "thunderstorm asthma", which led to the deaths of at least two people in Mel-bourne, is possible but unlikely in New Zealand, a weather analyst says. Thunderstorm asthma is a rare spring event that happens when a thunderstorm, sudden change in humidity, a northerly wind change and high pollen count are combined. This perfect storm causes pollen "packages" to be dispersed. Melbourne's hospitals had their busiest ever night on Monday as hundreds suffered from thunderstorm asthma attacks. It is believed at least two people died. One was 20-year-old Hope Carnevali, who died on the front lawn of her home and could not be revived, Nine News reported. WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan said Kiwis were unlikely to be struck with thunderstorm asth-ma. "Storms are usually much more intense in Australia so there's more potential, but in the right condi-tions, it could happen here. "Thunderstorms have an amazing ability to pick things up. They're like vacuum cleaners but they don't have a bag. They suck things up but then drop them off."

Many Kiwis suffer from hay fever as a result of pollen being blown around in westerly spring winds. Mel-bourne had a huge expanse of grasses around the city and storms were relatively common there. However, Duncan said Melbourne's storm on Monday was a "freak event". MetService pollen forecaster David Fountain also believed thunderstorm asthma was possible in New Zea-land. But the storm would have to be much more intense than normal. The current warm weather was causing high grass pollen production. The high pollen season would go


through until the end of December and then drop away as the grasses go to seed.


Fountain was aware of reports of thunderstorm asthma in Melbourne about 10 to 15 years ago. The humidity change of a perfect storm bursts pollen capsules, which explode tiny pollens at concentra-tions a million times higher than what is usually in the air and irritate airways. People with mild asthma, or who have never experienced an asthma attack, are often most affected be-cause they aren't actively taking treatment or have management plans. Melbourne is the "thunderstorm" capital of the world. Epidemics were recorded in 1987, 1989 and No-vember 2010. On Monday night, more than 1870 calls for ambulances were made between 6pm and 11pm. At least 600 callers had respiratory symptoms. Extra staff were brought into overwhelmed hospitals, the fire brigade provided more first-responders and Victoria Police did welfare checks. Private hospitals, including Cabrini and the Epworth, opened their emergency departments for public patients. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-herald-focus/news/headlines.cfm?c_id=1504018

Defence Force helps predict weather in Kaikoura a er MetService sta on knocked out

24 November 2016, KIRSTY LAWRENCE

Ross Giblin The HMNZS Wellington is providing observations from a newly-

installed weather station on the ship direct-ly to MetService from Kaikoura after Met-Service lost their capabilities in the quake

New equipment on board a navy ship is playing a vital role in the rescue efforts in Kaikoura, allowing supplies to be flown in without danger to pilots. Supplies were urgently needed when the 7.8 earthquake struck, but issues arose early on when MetService lost communication with its automatic weather station at Kai-

koura, meaning local weather predictions were not available. This affected important aviation weather forecasts, as they were not available, and it could not be deter-mined if it was safe to get supplies in via helicopter, navy meteorologist Lieutenant Commander Bronwyn Heslop said. But in a stroke of luck, the New Zealand Defence Force sent HMNZS Wellington to the region to transport in staff, with the vessel also able to provide observations from a newly-installed weather station

on the ship directly to MetService.

Newly-installed meteorological sensors on HMNZS Wellington are helping predict the weather in Kai-koura.

This new meteorological sensors were developed by the Defence Technolo-gy Agency and had only just been in-stalled on the offshore patrol vessel in the last week of October. The system turned into a key element in managing the safety and efficiency of the Kaikoura evacuation, as accurate forecast-ing of weather conditions for helicopter

and small-boat operations was essential. http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/news/86803415/defence-force-helps-predict-weather-in-

kaikoura-after-metservice-station-knocked-out



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