ISSN: 2219-0562 Vol. II, Issue II, September 2010 · 2015. 10. 19. · Indus basin involves two...

ISSN: 2219-0562 Vol. II, Issue II, September 2010

NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITYISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN

ISSRA PAPERSInstitute for Strategic Studies, Research & Analysis

National Defence University, Islamabad

Editorial Board Lieutenant General Muhammad Yousaf ChairmanMajor General Azhar Ali Shah Member Rear Admiral Khan Hasham Bin Saddique Member Major General Naweed Zaman Member Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema MemberLieutenant Colonel Dr Saif ur Rehman Member

Editor : Lieutenant Colonel Dr Saif ur RehmanAssistant Editor : Mr. Abdul Rauf IqbalComposer : Mr. Muhammad Anees

ISSRA Papers is sponsored and edited by the Institute for Strategic Studies,Research & Analysis, National Defence University, Sector E-9, Islamabad, Pakistan.

Statement of fact or opinion appearing in ISSRA Papers are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by the editors or publishers.

Telephone: 051-2008125285Fax: 051-9260663

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ISSRA PAPERS

ISSRA PAPERS VOL II, 2010

CONTENTS

Page

Water Shortage in Pakistan – A Crisis around the CornerAbdul Rauf Iqbal

1

Strategic Communication in Counter Insurgency Operation (COIN)Afifa Kiran

14

Global Climate Change: Impact on Pakistan’sPolitical EconomySaeed ur Rahman

24

Central Asia Security: Issues and Implications for the US InterestsUzma Akhtar

37

Impact of Public Opinion Policy – A Case Study of Swat Operation (Operation Rah-e-Raast)Mubarak Ahmad & Zaira Irfan Cheema

64

Role of Media in Resumption of Peace Talks between Pakistan and IndiaMuhammad Akram

84

ISSRA Papers 2010 1

WATER SHORTAGE IN PAKISTAN – A CRISIS AROUND

THE CORNER

Abdul Rauf Iqbal

Abstract

Water issues between Pakistan and India were settled

through Indus Water Treaty – often regarded as a remarkable

example of conflict resolution. But the recent Indian intentions of

building “chain of dams” on Pakistani (western) rivers have once

again posed a serious challenge for Pakistan. Further, UN reports are

suggesting that Pakistan is going to become a water scarce country

in near future. Forgoing in view, this essay highlights the reasons of

water shortage in Pakistan, its implications and a proposed way out.

After discussing the availability of water and its emerging

challenges, the paper narrates the Indian role in water crisis and its

implications for Pakistan.

Introduction

Pakistan, one of the world’s most arid countries, with an

average rainfall of under 240 mm a year,1 is heavily dependent on an

annual influx into the Indus River system. About 180 billion cubic

meters2 of water of the system emanates from the neighboring

country and is mostly derived from snow-melt in the Himalayas.

This hydraulic economy of Pakistan faced massive challenges right

from the independence of country in 1947. The first challenge arose

at the time of partition of the Indo-Pak subcontinent which detached

the irrigated heartland of Punjab from the life-giving waters of the

Water Shortage in Pakistan – A Crisis Around The Corner

ISSRA Papers 20102

Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers which had become part of India. The

situation became worst when India stopped the water flow of

Pakistan in April 1948. Then, water diplomacy started and both

states under the mediation of the World Bank negotiated the Indus

Waters Treaty (IWT) in 1960, giving Pakistan rights in perpetuity to

the waters of the three western rivers; Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab

rivers. While the three eastern rivers (Beas, Sutluj and Ravi) came

under total jurisdiction of India. This arrangement resulted in a new

challenge that was of a mismatch between the location of Pakistan’s

water (in the western rivers) and the major irrigated area in the east.

Again Pakistan’s water engineers were up to the task, building the

world’s largest earth fill dam, the Tarbela on the Indus, and link

canals, which ran for hundreds of miles and carried flows ten times

the flow of the river.

Water problems was settled and IWT was regarded as a

remarkable example of conflict resolution yet the recent Indian

intentions of building “chain of dams” on Pakistani (western) rivers

have once again posed a serious challenge for Pakistan. Further, UN

reports are suggesting that Pakistan is going to become a water

scarce country in near future. In this premise, this essay intends to

highlight the reasons of water shortage in Pakistan, its implications

and a proposed way out. The paper will first highlight the

availability of water and emerging challenges and then evaluate the

Indian role in water crisis and its implications for Pakistan.

Abdul Rauf Iqbal

ISSRA Papers 2010 3

Availability of Water in Pakistan

According to the World Bank, Pakistan became a water-

stressed country (1,700 cubic meters per capita per year) around the

year 2000.3 According to a government source, Pakistan reached

1,700 m3 in 1992 and became a water-short country, and then

declined further to 1,500 m3 in 2002.4 Water scarcity (1,000 m3 per

capita per year of renewable supply) is expected in about 2035.5

However, a United Nations Development Programme source gives

Pakistan’s current water availability as 1,090 m3 per capita per

year.6 This is because the terms “water shortage” and “water

scarcity” are often used interchangeably— while both use the 1,000

m3 per capita measurement as a benchmark, “shortage” is an

absolute term and scarcity is a relative concept.

Major Challenges for Pakistan

Now a days, major challenges emanating from the

availability of water in Pakistan are:-

Water Scarcity. Pakistan is one of the most water-

stressed countries in the world. The situation is going

towards the worst water scarcity due to Indian

obstruction of western rivers water.

A high risk water environment. 7 Pakistan is dependent

on a single river basin i.e. Indus River. This dependence

on a single river system means it has little of the strength

that most countries enjoy by virtue of having a

multiplicity of river basins and diversity of water

resources.


ISSRA Papers 20104

Indus Basin – A Source of Livelihood

The northwestern part of the subcontinent is dominated by

the Indus Basin. The Indus River originates near Mount Kailash

Range in Tibet and thereafter it flows to the West, eventually

running into Arabian Sea8. The total area of Indus basin, the area

draining the Himalayan water into the Arabian Sea, is about 365,000

square miles which is more than the total area of Pakistan9.

Indus basin involves two countries- Pakistan and India. In

Pakistan, the alluvial plains of the Indus basin cover approximately

25 percent of the land are of Pakistan, with Punjab and Sind the

most agriculturally important provinces10. In India, the basin

includes only 9.8 percent of the total geographical are of the

country. On the Indian side, the upper part of basin involves Jammu

& Kashmir and Himachel Prdesh, while the lower part covers the

area of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan11.

Given the importance of this basin, it is unsurprising that

divide of this basin has become a source of significant controversy.

The dispute over Indus waters started in the form of inter-state

differences before the partition. But after the independence in 1947,

the dispute became an international issue between Pakistan and

India. In this sense, the region’s defining event was ‘hasty,

unimaginative and surgical partition’ of British India12. After the

partition, political boundary between two states was drawn right

across the Indus Basin. It left Pakistan as the lower riparian while

making India as an upper riparian. Adding insult to injury most of

the headwaters went to Indian side and thus leaving Pakistan as

Abdul Rauf Iqbal

ISSRA Papers 2010 5

more vulnerable state. India was therefore given the physical

capacity to cut off vital irrigation water from large and valuable

tracts of agriculture land in Pakistan13.

Pakistan – India Water Crisis: A Historical background

The water dispute between the newly born states surfaced in

April 1948, when India closed the canals on the eastern rivers of

Ravi and Sutlej, only agreeing to reopen them after the Inter

Dominion Agreement of May 1948, where it claimed the entire

water of eastern rivers14. This was only a provisional agreement and

the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was finally negotiated between India

and Pakistan in 1960 under the mediation of World Bank. This gave

Pakistan the western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus) and India,

the eastern rivers (Beas, Sutlej and Ravi). Some restrictions were

also imposed on Indian capacity to modify the flow of western rivers

as she was the upper riparian for even these rivers.

Indus Water Treaty

The signing of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in 1960 was no

doubt a ‘remarkable achievement’15. It brought to an end the long

standing dispute between India and Pakistan. This treaty was

culminated through a long period of negotiation under the mediation

of World Bank. The primary objective of IWT was to fix and delimit

the rights and obligations of each country’s use of waters in relation

to other.16 The water sharing under this treaty (ignoring the details

given in the Annexes and Appendices) was quite simple:-


ISSRA Papers 20106

The three western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus)

were allocated to Pakistan, and the three eastern rivers

(Beas, Sutlej and Ravi) were allocated to India.

India was not allowed to build storages on the western

rivers except to a very limited extent.

Restrictions were also imposed on the extension of

irrigation development in India.

There were also provisions regarding the exchange of

data on project operation, extent of irrigated agriculture,

and so on.

The treaty further mandated certain institutional

arrangements:-

There was to be a permanent Indus Commission

consisting of a commissioner each for Pakistan and for

India, and there were to be periodical meetings and

exchanges of visits.

Provisions were included for the resolution of the

differences that might arise17.

The treaty also included the provision of international

financial assistance to Pakistan for the development of

irrigation works for utilizing the waters of western rivers.

Recent Stress & Strain in Observance of IWT

IWT survived in the midst of wars and border clashes. But at

present Pakistan is very much concerned with the Indian projects on

western rivers which would enable India either to reduce water

flows to Pakistan or to release store waters and cause floods.

Abdul Rauf Iqbal

ISSRA Papers 2010 7

Therefore, Pakistani objections are water and security related

but Indian position is different to that of Pakistan. Further, recent

stress and strain in the observance of IWT have had many analysts

believe that water sharing will take a politically charged dynamic in

the relations of two nuclear rival states18.

Source: John Briscoe, Water and Security in South Asia, Regional

Network of Strategic Studies Network, New Delhi, November 2009.

Indian Violations of IWT

India is building chains of dams on Pakistani rivers in clear

violation of the treaty and her exploitation of western rivers is

creating water shortage in the country. The recent projects provide

India the leverage to hold Pakistani waters which can seriously

affect water inflow at Marala Head Works/ Mangla Dam causing

acute shortage of water for winter crops. This, besides causing

electricity shortage, can greatly affect wheat crop in Punjab. Low

inflow at Marala Head Works can greatly undermine the defence


ISSRA Papers 20108

value of BRB Link Canal during campaigning season. Some of

Indian violations of the treaty are as below:-

India started almost every project without informing

Pakistan which is in violation of IWT.

There is a restriction of aggregate storage allowed to

India over western rives via Annexure E of the treaty.

India, however, is manipulating this provision by

building a series of storages on western rivers, increasing

storage and water regulation capabilities manifold.

India has recently awarded a tender for construction of

330 MW Kshanganga hydro-electric project (HEP),

which will be built on Indian tributary (Kishanganga) of

Jhelum River. Pakistan has announced a similar project

on Pakistani side of River Jhelum. According to IWT, the

country that completes the project first will win the rights

to the river. Hence, despite costing 68% more than

estimated, India is endeavouring to finish the project

first.

India has plans to construct 62 dams and hydro-electric

units on Rivers Chenab and Jhelum thus enabling it to

render these rivers dry by 2014.19

Implications for Pakistan

India’s future energy and water demands, which are

enormous, can compel her to undertake projects in

violation of IWT. Certain quarters in India are already

Abdul Rauf Iqbal

ISSRA Papers 2010 9

saying that IWT is more of a binding for India and

should therefore be abrogated.

Though India does not have the capability to divert water

from the western rivers at present, however, possibility

of a project similar to China’s Great South-North Water

Transfer Project can not be ruled out.

Any reduction in water inflow to Pakistan at this stage

will cause shortage of water for irrigation and if

supplemented by adverse climatic conditions and other

internal water mismanagement issues, can trigger inter-

provincial water conflicts of serious magnitude. If India

is found violating IWT at that point in time, then it will

spark serious differences between India and Pakistan and

might become prelude to a major conflict.

Most recently, water flows in Chenab has declined by 40

per cent to about 6,000 cusecs from a 10 year average of

about 10,000 cusecs, mainly because of construction by

India of over a dozen hydropower projects upstream,

reduction in rainfall and diversion of river waters.20 In

case India resorts to stoppage of water as per her

capability, 406 Canals and 1125 Distributaries will

become dry rendering 0.35 million acres of cultivated

land barren and eventually ruining a total of 7.0 million

acres of fertile land.21 India’s decision to go ahead with

Kishanganga HEP and four other dams in India


ISSRA Papers 201010

administered Kashmir is geared not so much towards

meeting its own needs as impoverishing Pakistan.

To fill Baglihar Dam, India had consistently obstructed

Chenab’s flow; resultantly Pakistan received only 19,351

cusecs on 9 October 2009 and 10,739 cusecs on 11

October 2009, when it should be receiving a minimum of

55,000 cusecs per day.22 Total loss was approximately

321,000 MAF of water.23

Agriculture is Pakistan’s backbone and water flowing in

the channels is its blood line. It contributes 21% to the

GDP and employs 45% of labour force.24 Adverse effects

of water shortage on agriculture would have a spiraling

effect on the prevailing level of poverty leading to

economic and social problems.

India has gained a water holding capacity on western

rivers which can seriously affect water inflow at Marala

HWs / Mangla Dam causing acute shortage of water for

winter crop. Though, presently India is not capable of

diverting water, possibility of a project similar to China’s

Great North-South Water Transfer Project cannot be

ruled out.

The growth rate of Pakistan’s agriculture is already

decreasing due to water shortages. In order to achieve the

required growth targets in agriculture, Pakistan needs an

estimated 149 MAF of water in 2000, 215 MAF in 2013

and 277 MAF in 2025.25

Abdul Rauf Iqbal

ISSRA Papers 2010 11

The shortage of surface water will result in drought and

more dependency on ground water for irrigation, hence

water table will go down causing water constraints to the

population.

Conclusion

Pakistan is heading towards “water stress” country and has

already reached to the limit of 1000 cubic meters per person per

year, below which serious economic and social consequences are

likely. Indian’s violations of IWT are not only a security and

economic concern for Pakistan but also can pose serious

implications on the region’s overall security as the both states

possess nuclear arms. Even if the direct violence is avoided,

inability to resolve river resource issues will undoubtedly limit the

ability of both countries to manage and utilize water resources in the

most efficient manner. In this backdrop, following way out is

suggested:-

Pakistan should highlight the importance of the issue on

various international forums. Merely passing the political

statements will not resolve the problem.

Indian intentions and needs should be distinguished on

quantitative terms to highlight the real face of India

among international community.

The treaty does not provide so many important issues

like availability of water, effects of climate change and

proportional increase or decrease of water in quantitative

terms. Pakistan should look for proper strategic forum for


ISSRA Papers 201012

deliberative discussion and policy options for these

issues.

At present, renegotiating the treaty seems impossible and

Pakistan has to relook its water policy in the given limits

of treaty. Therefore, effective role of Indus Water

Commissioners is the need of hour.

Interstate conflict can be managed through internal

strength and same is the case with water conflicts.

Pakistani policy makers should understand the concept of

conflict resolution and initiatives must be taken on

capacity building as no one can compel any sovereign

state (India or Pakistan) to act on morality.

There is serious need to work on water management as

the available water is being wasted and the groundwater

table is going below and below.

Notes

1 John Briscoe and Usman Qamar, Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry (Oxford: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2006), executive summary.2 Ibid.3 John Briscoe and Usman Qamar, Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry (Oxford: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2006).4 “Population Stabilization, a Priority for Development,” United Nations Population Fund/Ministry of Population Welfare, Government of Pakistan, undated.5 Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry.6 Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2007-2008, and Global Human Development Report 2007, quoted on UNDP website, www.undp.org.pk.7 For Example India might be able to muddle through because it has many rivers and if something goes wrong in one place the effect is cushioned by opportunities in other places, this is a luxury which Pakistan does not have.

Abdul Rauf Iqbal


8 Douglas Hill, “The Politics of Water in South Asia”, Transforming Cultures e Journal, Vol. 1 No. 2, June 20069 Syed Zain ul-Arifeen Shah, “The Indus Water Dispute”, available at www.chup.com accessed on 14 May 2010. 10 Executive Summary, World Commission on Dams, Pakistan: The Tarbela Dam and Indus River Basin, November 2000, available at www.dams.org/kbase/studies/pk/pk-exec.htm accessed on 26 May 2010.11 Douglas Hill, “The Politics of Water in South Asia”, June 2006.12 Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, “Pak-India Water Disputes”, The Post, 26 February 2006.13 Chaudhri Muhammad Ali, The Emergence of Pakistan, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1967) pp. 318-31914 H. Gazdar, “Baglihar and Politics of Water”, Economic and Political Weekly, 26 February 200515 Salman M.A. Salman and Kishor Uperty, Conflict and Cooperation on South Asia’s International Rivers: A legal Perspective, (World Bank, January 2003), p. 3716 Ibid p. 4817 Questions, if any arose, were to be resolved within the commission; if agreement could not be reached at the commission level, the matter was to be referred to the two governments; if they too failed to reach an agreement, the ‘question’ would become a ‘difference’ to be referred to a Neutral Expert (NE). The NE's findings on the differences referred to him would be final and binding. If the NE decided that the matter was in fact a ‘dispute’, it would have to go to a Court of Arbitration.18 Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, “Pak-India Water Disputes”, The Post, 26 February 2006 19 “India’s illegal dams on Pakistani rivers: Kishanganga to be completed in 2016”, The Dawn, 19 September 2009.20 Khaleeq Kiani, “Drastic decline in Chenab water flows”, The Dawn, 21 January 2010.21 Majid Nizami, “The water bomb”, The Nation, 27 May 2008.22 Khalid Hussain, “Indus water treaty under threat”, The News, 30 April 2010. 23 Haroon Mirani, “Race to the death over Kashmir waters”, Asia Times online, 13 January 2009. 24Ministry of Finance, Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10, (Islamabad: Government of Pakistan) pp. 13.25 Dr. Muhammad Saffar Mirjat and Abdul Samad Chandio, “Water resources of Pakistan”, The Economist, 14- 20 May, 2001.

ISSRA Papers 201014

STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION IN COUNTER

INSURGENCY OPERATIONS (COIN)

Afifa Kiran

Abstract

The concept of strategic communication evolved in the West

to understand/engage foreign audiences and influence the targeted

population for the support of their overseas military operations. It is

regarded as an instrument of statecraft to facilitate the governments

in order to influence the perceptions, attitudes, beliefs and behaviors

of stakeholders, non-state groups, neutrals, in support of national

security policies. In this premise, this paper discusses the role of

strategic communication in counter insurgency operations.

Introduction

During the cold war era, power blocks were involved in

direct confrontation with each other. Both the United States and

other Western powers (Britain, most notably) developed a robust

infrastructure for waging a ‘‘war of ideas’’ against the communist

ideology being promulgated by the Soviet Union and its allies.1 But

21st century conflicts are very different from 20th century conflicts.

Counterinsurgency (COIN), terrorism and counterterrorism (CT),

foreign internal defense (FID), psychological operations (PSYOP),

civil military operations (CMO), strategic communication,

information operations (IO), intelligence and counterintelligence

activities have become key elements in formulation the polices,

strategies, and operations of present-day governments confronting

Afifa Kiran


the irregular adversaries which demand hardheaded approaches to

deal with.

21st century conflicts/wars are moving into fourth generation

warfare, which cannot be won with high tech weapons alone. In the

past also, this form of war has defeated the French in Vietnam and

Algeria, and USSR in Afghanistan2. It continues to bleed Russia in

Chechnya and United States in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in other

countries against Al-Qaeda network.3 These wars are against the

enemies/insurgents who seek to change the social order by

manipulating people and reallocate power within the country while

enjoying the support of local population. To win these insurgencies,

unfortunately COIN approaches, which have been evolved over the

years against these insurgents, are generally confined to successful

deployment of hard power and giving less importance to the fact that

influence and management of perceptions of population within the

conflict zone is key for successful COIN operations. Although, there

is a growing realization at all levels that local population’s support

to the insurgents or militants has to be cut off by placing strategic

communication, public diplomacy, at the centre of pre and post

conflict reconstruction process but at grounds, it lacks clarity.

Few years back, the concept of strategic communication

evolved in the West to understand/engage foreign audiences and

influence the targeted population for the support of their overseas

military operations. It is regarded as an instrument of statecraft to

facilitate the governments involved in COIN to influence the

perceptions, attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of stakeholders, non-

Strategic Communication in Counter Insurgency Operations (COIN)

ISSRA Papers 201016

state groups, neutrals, in support of national security policies. In

simpler term, it refers to the reestablishing the government

writ/control and institutionalizing reforms during and after an armed

operation by the state.

Defining Strategic Communication (SC)

To understand the concept of SC, one has to see it as an

instrument of national power beside others elements: diplomatic,

information, military, and economic (DIME) to achieve the national

objectives in post conflict/insurgency scenario.

Definition

According to the Defense Science Board (DSB) of US, SC is

an interactive process and coherent set of activities which include;-

Understanding identities, attitudes, behaviors and

cultures; media trends and information flows; social and

influence networks; political, social, economic and

religious motivations.

Advising policymakers, diplomats, and military leaders

on public opinion implications of policy choices.

Engaging in a dialogue of ideas between people and

institutions through programs that support the national

interest,

Influencing attitudes and behavior through

communication strategies supported by a broad range of

government and civil society activities.

Measuring the impact of activities.

Afifa Kiran


Evolution of Term SC

The need for this concept emerged when it was felt that

traditional dividing lines between public affairs, public diplomacy,

and military information operations are blurred in operational

environment because of immediate access to information. The

current information revolution in military affairs, is part of a broader

revolution with political, economic and social dimensions. SC is

being shaped by profound changes in technology, perhaps most

notably in the area of information technology. However, to deal with

future complex social communication systems, SC is still in the

process and under intense debate among policy makers. Some

military analysts argue that although, the phrase “Strategic

Communication” has gotten very popular lately but there has also

been writing about strategic communication in government for

years, though not by that exact name. A 1957 book by Dyer is,

titled, Political Communication as an Instrument of State. In 1964

social science luminaries Morton Deutsch, John C. Harsanyi, Harold

H. Kelley, Anatol Rapoport, and Thomas Schelling edited a volume

called Strategic Interaction and Conflict: Original Papers and

Discussion.4. Basing on this discussion carried out in preceding

para, we can sum up the evolution of SC concepts over the years as

under:-

Enemy or combat propaganda (WW1)

Political Warfare (UK)

Psychological Warfare (US, WW2)

Psychological Operations (1950s onwards)


ISSRA Papers 201018

Information Warfare (1991-6)

Information Operations ( 1996 to present)

Perception Management (post 9/11)

Strategic Communication (SC) (2004-).

Components of Strategic Communication.

To comprehend and develop further clarity on the subject

and its role in post conflict or armed operation, it is important to

differentiate SC from other similar concepts of communication

strategies and psychological operations in warfare. Most scholars

merge this term with Public diplomacy and see it in the prism of

information operations. There are five primary supporting

capabilities for SC 5:-

Public Affairs (PA)

Information Operations (IO)

PSYOP;

Visual Information (VI),

Military Diplomacy (MD)

Defense support to Public Diplomacy.

The military uses SC as an integrating term for above-

mentioned capabilities. These capabilities are distinguished from

information operations capabilities that include electronic warfare,

computer network operations, covert psychological operations,

military deception, and operational security. Information operations

(IO) is a term to include Computer Network Operations (Computer

Network Attack and Defense), Electronic Warfare, Operational

Security, Military Deception, and PSYOP Strategic

Afifa Kiran


In Information Operations (IO), those capabilities are often

non-kinetic, sometimes non-lethal, and often aimed at processes

within systems that is, behavioral effects aimed at cognitive

processes. Often networked globally, SC both informs and

influences, synchronizing and deconflicting PA and IO themes and

messages6. In the other words, strategic communication focuses on

the cognitive dimension of the information environment7.

Communication, which is both message and action, provides the

means to harness the elements of national power in an effective

manner. It involves all elements of national power: diplomatic,

information, military, and economic (DIME). Strategic

communication processes and supporting capabilities must be

included in “all aspects of the federal government’s activities and

synchronized vertically and horizontally.”8

Strategic Communication Process.

Effective application of SC does not simply involve a source

transmitting to an audience, but rather active engagement between

parties. This engagement modes are derived from the policy,

strategic vision, campaign plan and operational design. Strategic

Communication as a process is continuous.9 This involves research,

planning, execution, monitoring and assessing the effects on

targeted population and involves coordination at two ends:-

Horizontal coordination. Among Government agencies

Vertical coordination (up and down the chain of

command).

This process ensures the following:-


ISSRA Papers 201020

Policy planning, while keeping in view the cultural,

informational, and communication considerations.

The potential communication impacts of both kinetic and

non-kinetic actions - their

likely "perception effects" - are assessed and planned for

before the actions are taken;

Soft power" options and capabilities are given equal

priority and considered in coordination with hard power

alternatives.

Targeted population/ audience include friendly elements,

stakeholders, non-state groups, neutrals, competitors, and

adversaries. In sum, Strategic communication process involves

actors including army, Government communication agencies, local

media, and Law enforcement agencies at all levels, from the

operational level of war to the policy making level. This will

enhance targeted population support for major military operations,

shape the environment to prevent conflict through influencing the

minds of neutrals, stake holders, locals, and to some extent

miscreants and during the armed operation , SC will ensure

favorable environment for the realization of national security

interests of the state.

Does Pakistan Need SC policy?

In last few years, Pakistan has developed comprehensive

counter terrorism/insurgency polices aimed at “clear, control and

build to deal with terrorists/extremists within the country. Since

then, armed forces are conducting successful armed operations

Afifa Kiran


against the militants. However, Pakistan is far behind in handling

the post-armed operations situation effectively. Use of force against

militancy within the country is a difficult task particularly when it

has some ideological basis. Such operations have always some risk

of locals’ support to extremist’s ideology against the govt besides

other social-economic reasons. For Pakistan, SC can be used to

mobilize publics in support of major policy initiatives and to support

objectives before, during, and after a conflict.

Strategic Communication Plan for Pakistan.

Strategic communication is a vital tool in the 21st century

information environment. As Pakistan is facing many violent

situations in many part of the country and using force to curb the

menace. In such unpredictable environment, it is necessary to

maintain popular support and insurgent-population isolation. SC is

prerequisites for any successful counterinsurgency. Therefore, it

should be the top priority of the Pakistani government to achieve its

objectives in such undesired situations. An effective strategic

communication plan requires continued population support for the

government in its armed operations against the militants and isolate

themselves from the insurgents’ cause and activities. The nine

"fundamental tenets" for Pakistan’s SC plan should be based on

principles identified by Naval War Collage USA in 2008,

Leadership-driven: leaders must decisively engage and

drive SC processes

Credible: perception of truthfulness and respect between

all parties


ISSRA Papers 201022

Dialogue: multi-faceted exchange of ideas to promote

understanding and build relationships

Unity of Effort: integrated and coordinated, vertically

and horizontally

Responsive: right audience, right message, right time,

and right place

Understanding: deep comprehension of attitudes,

cultures, identities, behavior, history, perspectives and

social systems. What we say, do, or show may not be

what others hear or see

Pervasive: every action, image, and word sends a

message

Results-Based: actions to achieve specific outcomes in

pursuit of a well-articulated end-state.

Continuous: diligent ongoing research, analysis,

planning, execution, and assessment that feeds planning

and action.

Conclusion

Strategic communication is not the silver bullet, but it does

present the possibility for a more tightly focused informational

contribution to the strength of the other instruments of national

power to achieve national strategies.10 Today, Pakistan is facing

intensified conflict within the country and increasingly complex

regional security situation. It is safe to say that in the war against

violent extremism, SC is all about engaging the enemy in the battle

of ideas. Our government and military efforts are marred by a lack

Afifa Kiran


of resources, interagency cooperation, and coordinated

strategy. Pakistan public diplomacy is much weaker in identifying

the mission and the strategy, and it fails to address the crucial

function of public diplomacy in armed conflict. In Pakistan’s case,

Strategic Communication is more than disseminating of information

but the active solicitation of stakeholders’ perspectives. By making

SC centre of future strategies against militancy would facilitate the

government and military to address human factors such as

sociology, psychology, culture, behavior, and politics, and help

building consensus and partnerships for national policy.

Notes

1 J. Vaughn, ‘‘‘Cloak without Dagger’: How the Information Research Department Fought Britain’s Cold War in the Middle East, 1948–1956,’’ Cold War History 4:3 (April 2004):P. 56–84.2 Colonel Thomas X. Hammes USMC, “The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century” 2006-07 , P.33 ibid4 Steven R. Corman, Strategic Communication by Any Other Name,( COMOPS journal 2010 , Consortium for Strategic Communication, USA)5 US Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), Execution Roadmap for Strategic Communication,(U.S. Department of Defense, September 2006)6 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Information Operations, Joint Publication 3-13, , 13 February 2006, pp. ix, xii7 Dennis M. Murphy, Talking the Talk: Why Warfighters Don’t Understand Information Operations, (Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, May 2009)8 Charles S. Gramaglia, Lieutenant Commander, Strategic Communication: Distortion and White Noise, (US Army Iosphere Papers, Winter 2008, available at http://www.au.af.mil/info-ops/iosphere/08winter/iosphere_win08_gramaglia.pdf9 Robert L. Perry, Principles of Strategic Communication for a New Global Commons, (US Naval War CollegeNewport, RI, June 2008)10 Robinson, Linda, The Propaganda War, (US News & World Report, 29 May 2006)

ISSRA Papers 201024

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON PAKISTAN’S

POLITICAL ECONOMY

Saeed ur Rahman

Abstract

The South Asian region, being home of the 23% world

population and one of the poorest regions would be hit hard by

climate change. Endemic morbidity, increased deaths, diseases due

to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts would be

witnessed. Crop yields would be declining and thus affecting the

poor class of the society. The paper aims to highlight various areas

in Pakistani economy that would be severely affected by climate

change.

Introduction

“Don't blow it - good planets are hard to find”.

Global warming is a rapidly unfolding phenomenon that

would effect the developed and underdeveloped, rich and poor alike.

It is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface,

air and oceans because of the increasing concentrations of

greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel

burning and deforestation. Experts on environment believe the

global temperature started increasing rapidly since the middle of the

20th century and adversely affecting human activities.

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to

rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation,

Saeed urRehman


probably including expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is

expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with

continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely

effects include changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme

weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural

yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region

around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations is

uncertain.

Political and public debate continues regarding global

warming, its causes and what actions to take in response. The

available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions;

adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more

speculatively, geo-engineering to reverse global warming.

The South Asian region, being home of the 23% world

population and one of the poorest regions would be hit hard by

climate change. Endemic morbidity, increased deaths, diseases due

to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts would be

witnessed. “Crop yields would decrease by 30% upto 2050”1, and

thus effecting the poor class of the society. The paper aims to

highlight various areas in Pakistani economy that would be severely

affected by climate change.

Climate Change Mechanism

The greenhouse effect is a warming process that balances

Earth's cooling processes. During this process, sunlight passes

through Earth's atmosphere as short-wave radiation. Some of the

radiation is absorbed by the planet's surface. As Earth's surface is

Global Climate Change: Impacts on Pakistan’s Political Economy

ISSRA Papers 201026

heated, it emits long wave radiation toward the atmosphere. In the

atmosphere, some of the long wave radiation is absorbed by certain

gases called greenhouse gases. “Greenhouse gases include carbon

dioxide (CO2), Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's), methane (CH4),

nitrous oxide (N20), tropospheric ozone (O3), and water vapors”2.

Each molecule of greenhouse gas becomes energized by the long

wave radiation. The energized molecules of gas then emit heat

energy in all directions. By emitting heat energy toward Earth,

greenhouse gases increase Earth's temperature.

The greenhouse effect is a natural occurrence that maintains

Earth's average temperature at approximately 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

The greenhouse effect is a necessary phenomenon that keeps all

Earth's heat from escaping to the outer atmosphere. Without the

greenhouse effect, temperatures on Earth would be much lower than

they are now, and the existence of life on this planet would not be

possible. However, too many greenhouse gases in Earth's

atmosphere could increase the greenhouse effect. This could result

in an increase in mean global temperatures as well as changes in

precipitation patterns.

The key concept in climate change is time. Natural changes

in climate usually occur over; that is to say they occur over such

long periods of time that they are often not noticed within several

human lifetimes. This gradual nature of the changes in climate

enables the plants, animals, and microorganisms on earth to evolve

and adapt to the new temperatures, precipitation patterns, etc.

Saeed urRehman


The real threat of climate change lies in how rapidly the

change occurs. For example, “over the past 130 years, the mean

global temperature appears to have risen 0.6 to 1.2 degrees

Fahrenheit (0.3 to 0.7 degrees Celsius)”3. Changes in mean global

temperature have occurred at greater rates over time. Further

evidence suggests that “future increases in mean global temperature

may occur at a rate of 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.2 degrees Celsius)

each decade. Temperatures are predicted to rise by 3 degrees by

2040 and up to 5-6 degrees by the end of the century”4. Monsoon

rains will be drastically reduced but have a much higher intensity.

Droughts and floods are predicted for the whole of South Asia.

The geological record--the physical evidence of the results of

processes that have occurred on Earth since it was formed--provides

evidence of climate changes. This means during the history of the

earth, there have been changes in global temperatures similar in size

to these changes. However, the past changes occurred at much

slower rates, and thus they were spread out over long periods of

time. The slow rate of change allowed most species enough time to

adapt to the new climate. The current and predicted rates of

temperature change, on the other hand, may be harmful to

ecosystems. This is because these rates of temperature change are

much faster than those of Earth's past. Many species of plants,

animals, and microorganisms may not have enough time to adapt to

the new climate. These organisms may become extinct.


ISSRA Papers 201028

Impacts of Climate Change: A Pakistani Scenario

Environmental degradation is fundamentally linked to

poverty in Pakistan. Approximately less than one-fourth of the

country’s population, like in most developing countries, is poor and

directly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods—

whether agriculture, hunting, forestry, fisheries, etc. By far, the

economic sector most affected by global warming will be the

agricultural sector. This is because global warming is projected to

cause serious disruptions in the weather, which will have a domino

effect on other factors. More specifically, it is predicted that global

warming will seriously affect the number of rainfall that certain

agricultural regions receive yearly.

Pakistan is an agriculture-dependent country, with over 47%

of its population earning their livelihood from agriculture. “This

sector contributes 24% to GDP. Pakistan earns 70% of its foreign

exchange from agriculture alone”5. Pakistan is an agriculture

supplier that feeds vast populations of its own and of neighboring

countries like Afghanistan, as well as the Middle East and several

Central Asian Republics. Recent ranking by Maplecroft of the UK

places “Pakistan at 28th amongst those that will be most severely

affected”6. Unless it maintains stable growth rates, its economy will

suffer immensely. Unless Climate Change trends are reversed and

things return to normal, agriculture will be the most seriously

impacted sector. Without a clear-cut adaptation strategy and the

requisite resources and capacity building the medium to long-term

prognosis is far from good!

Saeed urRehman


Pakistan especially in its agricultural domain, will receive

these cross currents.

Reduced water availability, which is altering the crop

rotation and cropping patterns.

Drastic reduction in cereal production, e.g. wheat and

rice, as well as in cotton and sugarcane.

In southern Pakistan yields of major cereals predicted to

decline by 15-20% by Regional Climate Change Models

In the northern area minor improvements in yield due to

increased duration of growing period

Livestock production predicted to decline by 20-30%,

creating crises in milk, meat and poultry supplies and

pushing prices beyond reach of the average Pakistani

Rangelands will be over-stressed from prolonged

droughts and shifting human and livestock populations

around riverine areas and in mountainous regions. This

will reduce tree and shrub cover. Pakistan is already

amongst the most forest/tree resource-poor countries in

the world with a meager 5.2% forest cover, and even that

sparsely stocked.

Inland fisheries predicted to be reduced due to decreased

water availability and changing river flows

Plant diseases, weeds and insect attacks will increase

considerably, resulting in major crop losses


ISSRA Papers 201030

Fruits, vegetables and horticultural products are high-

value exports for Pakistan. A predicted reduction in these

will severely impact our balance of payments.

The livelihood of farm communities will be affected, and

marginalized groups like women, children and the

elderly will be negatively impacted through widespread

malnutrition.

Despite Pakistan’s contribution to the greenhouse gas

emissions being far below global average, climate change is

significantly affecting crop output in the country, increasing poverty

levels and adversely affecting people’s lifestyle.

The Indus Valley, which is the cradle of Pakistan’s

agriculture, is presently threatened by the vagaries of Climate

Change, largely induced through anthropogenic interventions that

result in global warming. The agriculture in the whole of the Indus

Valley is under threat. Climate change having direct and indirect

impacts on agriculture can cost billions of dollars of loss to Pakistan.

This threat translates into “direct impacts to over 100 million people

and indirect impacts to the entire burgeoning population of 180

million, which is projected to increase to 240 million by 2035”7.

Producing high delta water-consuming crops like sugarcane under a

Climate Change scenario may no longer be feasible. Sugar prices

have more than doubled over the past year, creating social unrest

and political embarrassment. Same would be the case with wheat,

cotton and many vegetables.

Saeed urRehman


Almost all of Pakistan's water resources originate from

glacial melt-off of Himalayan glaciers. Increases in global

temperatures resulting from climate change are expected to affect

the rate of glacial melt: At first there will be widespread flooding

and then, as the glaciers melt away, there will be no water resource.

This is evident what occurs in the Attabad Lake in the Hunza Valley

in northern Pakistan. In the last four months, the water level raised

in the lake due to glacial melting, “swelling it to 18.5 kilometres

long and 107 metres deep”8. It is linked to climate change, because

the whole water balance and ecology of the Himalayan region is

changing- causing instability and posing serious threats, one of

which is catastrophic flooding to the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

Glaciers in Karakoram, Rakaphoshi and Nangaparbat are

Pakistan’s primary source of water and some scholars predict that

global warming could consume the glaciers in as little as 40 years.

“Of the 5,000 glaciers in the region, 90% are in various degrees of

melting, putting a question mark on the future of water resources in

an already stressed situation”9, In Pakistan, the most dangerous

aspect of glacial melting is the large lakes left behind, potential

sources of destructive flooding. “Scientists have identified 2,420

glacial lakes as Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Gilgit

Baltistan. Of those, 52 are potentially dangerous to the populations

living below”.10

The current Attabad lake issue and the resultant

displacement can be a case study of global warming. Last month’s

glacial melt led to the “evacuation of more than 12,000 people living


ISSRA Papers 201032

downstream of the landslide-formed Attaabad Lake in northern

Pakistan. An additional 1300 people have already lost a total of 120

houses to flooding”11 as the waters have risen and if the seasonal

rains start, according to BBC reports the natural team would be

breached and “about 25,000 people in 36 villages would be

displaced downstream”12.

Climate change has caused Pakistan “a loss of around $3.57

billion over the past 18 years”13. The report warns of disasters in

five main areas: rise in sea level, glacial retreat, floods, higher

average temperatures, and high frequency of droughts. “Around

23% of the country’s land and nearly 50% of the entire

population”14 is vulnerable to the damage resulting from these

potential disasters. “In 2009, the rainfall was greatly reduced and

highly erratic15”, The summer and the winter rains decreased by

30% each. The water supply to dams was also slashed, badly hurting

hydroelectricity production and reducing power supply to many

parts of the country, leading to urban riots”.

Poverty combined with a rapidly increasing population and

growing urbanization, is leading to intense pressures on the

environment. In Pakistan, the deterioration of environment continues

to affect livelihoods and health thus increasing the vulnerability of

the poor to disasters and environment-related conflicts. Biodiversity

in Pakistan is also under serious threat due to excessive depletion of

natural resources. The latest red-list of endangered species in

Pakistan, includes “the Blue Whale, Fin Whale, Hotson's Mouse-like

Hamster etc.16”

Saeed urRehman


Recommendations

There is an urgent need to come up with a national plan

to avoid the consequences of climate change, as it will

alter the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation

and trigger droughts, mudslides, typhoons, cyclones, and

floods in the country.

Pledge unequivocal support to help address the

agricultural challenges arising from Climate Change in

Pakistan.

To stop an increase in harmful carbon emissions that

contribute to climatic disasters, Pakistan and other South

Asian countries need to formulate and implement clean

technology policies.

Although Pakistan produces minimal

chlorofluorocarbons and a little sulphur dioxide

emissions, thus making a negligible contribution to

ozone depletion and acid rain, it will suffer

disproportionately from climate change and other global

environmental problems. Health of millions would also

be affected with diarrhoeal diseases associated with

floods and drought becoming more prevalent.

Intensifying rural poverty is likely to increase internal

migration as well as migration to other countries. Given

the enormity of the impact, adaptation and mitigation

measures are critically important.


ISSRA Papers 201034

When it comes to climate change population does matter,

particularly for countries like Pakistan with an annual

growth rate of 2.69 percent, will be the sixth most

populous country. As poor families struggle to survive,

environmental degradation is going to be more pervasive.

Increased use of wood for fuel, abusive use of land and

water resources, in the form of overgrazing, over fishing,

depletion of fresh water and desertification- are common

in rural areas of Pakistan. Both at government and public

level, measures should be taken to control population

explosion.

Technology transfer in the area of renewable energy at

farm level and green technologies to save the

environment from the vagaries of Climate Change.

Massive investment in forest and tree cover across the

board with due attention paid to special ecologies, e.g.

the coastal belt, where mangroves are the most suitable.

Lastly, a major focus on the youth and children to

prepare them to face the consequences of Climate

Change. Their education and involvement are a vital part

of any sensible strategy!

Conclusion

The adverse impact of the rising global warming on human

and other forms of life is becoming clearer day by day, which is

adding to man kinds’ fear for the future. Industrial states of the

world are being accused of atmospheric pollution that spurs global

Saeed urRehman


warming. It is a rapidly unfolding challenge of catastrophic global,

regional and national proportions. Pakistan will be affected by the

impacts far more seriously than is generally perceived. It is an

agricultural country and floods, droughts, alteration in raining days

and rotation in crops duration are some of the many issues that arise

of global climate change. Pakistan. Although contributes very little

in global warming but the repercussions are far greater. Offensive

measures need to be taken to tackle the issue; otherwise the

economy of the country would deteriorate.

Notes

1 Karim, Khan, “Climate Change Cost Pakistan 3.5 Billion Dollars in 18 Years” Dec 09, 2009 Available on http://freebird.instablogs.com/entry/climate-change-cost-pakistan-35-billion-in-18-years/#ixzz0qnHzBhRM2 “Global Warming” Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia” Available on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming3 “Global climate Change: Overview” HTML code by Chris Kreger, Last updated-November 10, 2004. Available on http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/climate/GCclimate1.html 4 Ibid.5 “Global warming: The Economic Effects” 2007, Available on http://globalwarming.solveyourproblem.com/global-warming-economic-effects.shtml6 Jamal, Shahid, “Climate Change effects to hit Pakistan hard: IPCC Chief” Dawn, January 14, 2009.7 Reporter, “Pakistan Most Vulnerable to Climate Change” the Daily Dawn, 05 February, 2010.8 Report, “Climate Change and Vulnerabilities Challenges in Pakistan” IUCN, Ministry of Environment-Government of Pakistan9 Amber Masood of the UN Development Programme-glacier project.10 Assessment report, “Community Based Survey for Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazards (GLOFs) in Hunza River Basin” Water Resource Research Institute and UNDP, November 200811 Glacial Melt Could Cause Tidal Wave in Pakistan” Circle of Blue WaterNews, June 07, 2010 Available on http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2010/world/glacial-melt-could-cause-tidal-wave-in-pakistan/12 Ibid13 Karim, Khan, “Climate Change Cost Pakistan 3.5 Billion Dollars in 18 Years” Dec 09, 2009 Available on http://freebird.instablogs.com/entry/climate-change-cost-pakistan-35-billion-in-18-years/#ixzz0qnHzBhRM14 World Bank report. The report, released on Tuesday (December 08, 2009),


ISSRA Papers 201036

15 Jamal, Shahid, “Climate Change effects to hit Pakistan hard: IPCC Chief” Dawn, January 14, 2009.16 Pakistan: Strategic Country Environment Assessment by WB (Sep, 2007)


CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY: ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS

FOR US INTERESTS

Uzma Akhtar

Abstract

Independence has brought a host of new problems to the

Central Asian States, as well as exaggerating the number of former

ones At the same time statehood has meant that the leaders of these

former Soviet republics have new tools are at their disposal to try

and address these issues, but international assistance and the

instruments of statehood are often used unwisely, or not to their

fullest possible extent. This paper discusses the internal and external

security concerns of the Central Asian states and its implication for

U.S interests.

The Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) face common security

challenges from crime, corruption, terrorism, and commitments to

economic and democratic reforms. However, cooperation among

them remains halting, so security in the region is likely in the near

term to vary by country. Internal political developments in several

bordering or close-by states may have a large impact on Central

Asian security. These developments include a more authoritarian

and globlist Russia, an economically growing China, instability in

Iran and the South Caucasus region, and re-surging drug production

and Islamic extremism in Afghanistan. Now how U.S uses these

security issues of Central Asia for its interest is the focus of this

Central Asia Security: Issues and Implications for US Interests

ISSRA Papers 201038

paper. U.S interest in Central Asia can be summed up by three

words: security, democracy and energy.

Introduction

According to DER SPIEGEL:

“Never before in modern history has a country dominated

the earth so totally as the United States does today…America is the

Schwarzenegger of international politics: showing off muscles,

obtrusive, intimidating….The Americans, in the absence of limits put

to them by anybody or any thing, act as if they own a kind of blank

check in their MacWorld”1

Schwarzenegger was a famous body builder, actor and

governor of California. He has a very sound physique. The newly

independent states of Central Asia are passing through a transitional

phase of nation building. The Central-Asian –Caspian region is one

of the richest in the world in its energy resources. Many countries

compete for the right to develop its oil and gas reserves, jockeying

for a share of a potentially very lucrative market.2Because of rich

natural resources, lack of capital and expertise, weak armed forces

and landlocked position, Central Asia region is in the utter need of

good relationship with the neighbors and other powers of the world.

All these features of the region provide a good reason for the

involvement of outsiders. Various nations of smaller, medium and

big stature are quite eager to engage in the new Central Asian

republics, especially for exploitation of vast energy resources. In this

context, the huge reserves of oil and gas are most attractive features

of the region as a whole. For this purpose, a kind of diplomatic

Uzma Akhtar


struggle is going on among different countries, which see their

stakes in this region.3

The U.S is also one of these countries and wants to have a

say in the affairs of the region. To achieve this target, it is making its

own diplomatic efforts. The United States has varied and at times

competing interests in Central Asia. The region, which includes the

five post-Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as Afghanistan and the

Caspian basin, plays an important part in U.S. global strategy in

view of its proximity to Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, and

other key regional actors. No less important are its ethno-religious

composition and vast deposits of oil, gas, coal, and uranium. The

United States has provided assistance for these efforts and boosted

such aids and involvement after the terrorist attacks on the United

States on September 11, 2001, but questions remain about what

should be the appropriate level and scope of U.S. interest and

presence in the region.

In the past five years real and present dangers to U.S.

national security, especially Islamist terrorism and threats to the

energy supply, have affected U.S. policy in Central Asia. The region

has great energy potential and is strategically important, but it is

land-locked, which complicates U.S. access and involvement there.

Types of Insecurities in Central Asia: Internal and External

We can divide these insecurities threats of Central Asia in

three broad categories. 1) Chronic threats which were inherited from

the past, 2) new insecurities that have appeared during the transition


ISSRA Papers 201040

period, and 3) threats that have resulted from geo-political changes

in the region and in the world. Ultimately, all of these have one

commonality: They are manifestations of difficulties in the

management of new processes.

Inherited Common Insecurities

These types of insecurities are related to what the countries

of Central Asia inherited from their history, a combination of spatial

distribution, the nature of the rural and traditional societies and the

transformation processes which the republics underwent as part of

the Soviet Union. These include Nation-state formation, geography,

infrastructure, ecology and environment, traditional society and

reliance on all-providing system.4 Human security continues to be

seen through the responsibility of top-down measures, instead of

bottom-up solutions.

Human Insecurities acquired during the Transition Period

The past decade of transition in Central Asia has been

marked by a sharp increase in a variety of human insecurities, as a

direct result of 1) sudden and multi-dimensional structural changes

in society, the economy and the political system, 2) ill-conceived

policies or reactions to these, 5and 3) the changing nature of the

roles and responsibilities of the state. Transition offered an

opportunity of change, but was also seen as a time of crisis for many

individuals and households. Although the causes of these

insecurities need to be further analyzed, their manifestations are the

following, with varying degrees between the different countries.

These includes economic insecurity, poverty, decline in level of

Uzma Akhtar


human resource development, education, healthcare, social welfare,

political change, changing social structure, gender, young people,

drugs, crime, globalization. 6

Human Insecurities as a Result of Changing Regional Contexts

These types of threats were identified as a result of changing

dynamics within Central Asia and from conflicts from outside the

region, and call for a common regional platform to ensure regional

stability. There are two sub category of this type of insecurities.

Inter-Regional conflicts and Threats

These includes fall-out from open conflicts and poor

management of common resources. The former further creates

escalation of instability in other countries, large scale displacements,

armed insurgencies and threats of terrorism and extremism and

destabilization of trade and economic security for markets in the

region.

Extra-Regional Conflicts and Threats:

These threats come from two sources: Instability in

Afghanistan as well as the changing global context, and

demonstrated once again the need for regional stability to ensure

human security.

Security Threats to Central Asia

The problems of authoritarian regimes, crime, corruption,

terrorism, and ethnic and civil tensions jeopardize the security of all

the new states of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has faced the potential of

separatism in northern Kazakhstan Tajikistan faces threats from

economic Mismanagement and the possibility of separatism,


ISSRA Papers 201042

particularly by its northern Soghd. In Kyrgyzstan, northern and

southern regional interests vie for influence over decision- making

in Central politics. Turkmenistan faces clan and provincial tensions

and poverty that could contribute to instability. Uzbekistan faces

escalating civil discontent and violence from those whom President

Islam Karimov labels as Islamic extremists from a large ethnic Tajik

population, and from an impoverished citizenry. Ethnic Uzbeks and

Kyrgyz clashed in 1990 in the Fergana Valley. This fertile valley is

divided between Kyrgstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and contains

about one-fifth of Central Asia’s population. All these states are

harmed by drug and human trafficking and associated corruption

and health problems.7

Islamic Extremism and Terrorism

The practice of Islam is still state-regulated in Central Asia,

and Central Asian leaders have not taken pains to distinguish

between religious activists, religious extremist, and Islamic terrorist

Effectively, anyone who advocates the primacy of religious values

over secular norms is understood to be “an enemy of the state”,

whether or not this primacy is to be achieved through persuasion or

through force.8

After the Basmachi Revolt was suppressed and liquidated by

the Soviet forces, no organized terrorist or militant activity could

take place due to a strong vigilance by the Soviet law enforcement

authorities and the government. But after independence, the

situation changed totally and the Pandora’s Box of militancy and

Uzma Akhtar


terrorism opened up once again, taking advantage of the political

confusion and uncertainty that engulf the region initially.9

There are several phases in rise of terrorism in Central Asia.

CARs regimes have recently taken to labeling Hizb-ut-Tahrir al

Islami (HT, Party of Islamic Liberation) and the militant Islamic

Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and civil war in Tajikistan as the

main source of terrorism in central Asia. Different factors

determining how these two groups have been able to effectively

operate in the region will be addressed including: current CARs

regime policies towards Islamist, especially in Uzbekistan, and the

effects these policies have had on the population; the depressed

economic situation, and the viability of fundamentalism as an

alternate in the region; notwithstanding outside influences, such as

international financial assistance and ideological teachings leading

to the rise of radical Islam after the collapse of the Soviet Union

and the dynamics around surrounding the creation of the newly

independent CARs. Uzbekistan, Kyrgstan and Tajikistan are the

victims of terrorism10

Narcotics and Drug Trade

The security of Central Asia can no longer be understood in

separation from drug trade. Most processing of opium into heroin

now occurs inside Afghanistan, and the largest increases in

production are taking place in the country’s northern parts, making

large quantities available in the vicinity of the Central Asian states.

Known heroin laboratories in Kunduz province and elsewhere in the


ISSRA Papers 201044

north, as well as increased seizures of heroin coupled with

decreasing opium seizures, indicate that the main volume of drugs

Moving into Central Asia is in the form of heroin.

By the early 2000s, the number of drug users in Central Asia

had skyrocketed. Central Asia has so far not seen an addiction

epidemic as Russia has, but heroin-addiction levels are rising

rapidly.90 Societal consequences are emerging, including a rapid

rise in HIV cases and drug-related crime.91 Concomitantly, the

economic and political impact of the drug trade in these states has

also been significant, especially in the region’s weakest states,

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. In the absence of a strong licit

economy—especially in the case of Tajikistan, still suffering the

ravages of war—the large turnover and profit margins of drug

trafficking have a serious impact on state and society. This has

created a severe corruption problem across the region at all levels,

especially among low-paid government officials in law enforcement.

High-level government officials have also been involved in the

trafficking of drugs, raising the question of whether systematic

criminal infiltration into state agencies is taking place. Meanwhile,

the Islamic insurgencies in the region have been tied intimately to

the drug trade.11

Border Tensions

While border tensions have been a salient feature of Central

Asian politics for the past decade due to the undemocratic and often

undetermined drawing of their borders at independence, the area has

seen considerable progress. By 2005, most of the boundary disputes

Uzma Akhtar


between Central Asian states and between them and China were

resolved. The process was often difficult and produced political

crises, especially in Kyrgyzstan, but it nevertheless testifies to a

certain maturity of the political leadership.12

The problem of delineating their 4,200 mile border has been

an important source of concern to Russia and Kazakhstan. Tajikistan

and Kyrgyzstan have agreed on the delimitation of about one-half of

their 579 mile shared border and pledged in September 2007 to

peacefully settle contentious disputes involving borders in the

Fergana Valley. Uzbekistan’s unilateral efforts to delineate and

fortify its borders with Kazakhstan in the late 1990s led to tensions.

In September 2002, however, the Kazakh and Uzbek presidents

announced that delineation of their 1,400 mile border was complete,

and some people in previously disputed border villages began to

relocate if they felt that the new borders cut them off from their

“homeland”.13

Crime and Corruption

The collapse of legal economies in conflict-torn and

transition countries has created a severe corruption problem across

the region at all levels. Low-paid government officials in law

enforcement are routinely bribed to look the other way as smugglers

take a shipment through, and are otherwise involved in protecting

the local transport and distribution of drugs. One leading Central

Asian specialist estimated the average proportion of corrupt officials

in the law enforcement agencies of the region at 70 percent. The

interior ministries across the post- Soviet space remain the most


ISSRA Papers 201046

unreformed sectors of the state, and have attracted little foreign

interest, with the exception of some activity on the part of the

OSCE. This has helped to sustain high levels of corruption among

these entities.14

Domestic and Transnational Issues

While the region’s political environment is unstable, the

states of the region need to deal with a host of domestic problems in

their quest for stability and development. Foremost among these is

the development of the political systems of the region. The five

post-Soviet Central Asian states have so far failed to make

significant progress in building of, participatory transparent and

accountable government institutions. While some progress was

noted in the mid-1990s, especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, a

certain backtracking in political reforms was widely noted from the

late 1990s onwards.15

Current WMD Proliferation Threats

The continued presence of fissile and radioactive material in

the countries of Central Asia poses a persistent proliferation risk.

Obtaining fissile material such as highly enriched uranium (HEU) or

plutonium is one of the most important steps separating terrorists

from a nuclear device of very destructive power, while acquiring

certain types of radioactive material is the principal hurdle to

creating a radiation dispersal device (RDD) or "dirty bomb". Central

Asia is a potential source for both types of material. HEU remains at

several sites in Central Asia. Another potential proliferation threat in

Central Asia is the significant number of "orphan" radiation sources.

Uzma Akhtar


These are sources abandoned by medical, scientific and industrial

users who are either unable or unwilling to dispose of them

properly, leaving them vulnerable to theft. Some of these sources

could be used in unsophisticated radiological devices.16

Energy and Water Issues

Energy issues have been more complicated, mainly because

of the unbalance between water and hydrocarbon resources in the

region. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan dominate its oil

and gas resources, whereas 90 percent of water resources are

concentrated in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These resources were

bartered in Soviet times, a process that effectively collapsed in the

1990s as gas producers demanded payment but refused to pay for

water, a dynamic known from the Middle East and other areas.17

Economic and Defence Security Threats

The Central Asian states have worked to bolster their

economic and defense capabilities by seeking assistance from

individual Western donors such as the United States, by trying to

cooperate with each other, and by joining myriad international

organizations. Regional cooperation has faced challenges from

differential economic development and hence divergent interests

among the states, and from more nationalistic postures. Cooperation

also is undermined by what the states view as Uzbekistan’s

overbearing impulses. Regional cooperation problems are

potentially magnified by the formation of extra-regional cooperation

groups such as the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization

(CSTO), NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PFP), and the Shanghai


ISSRA Papers 201048

Cooperation Organization (SCO). Each group reflects the diverging

interests of Russia, the United States, and China, although the fact

that each group stresses anti-terrorism would seem to provide

motivation for cooperation. All of the Central Asian states have been

faced with creating adequate military and border forces the

capabilities of the military, border, and other security forces are

limited, compared to those of neighboring states such as Russia,

China, or Iran. Military forces range in manpower from about

16,300 in Tajikistan (excluding Russians) to 87,000 in Uzbekistan.18

The global economic downturn that began in 2008

contributed to halting or even reversing the growth of per capita

income in the Central Asian states in 2008-2009, the first such lack

of growth in several years. Reductions in remittances from migrant

workers and rising food and fuel costs account for some of the

decline. Regional currencies depreciated against the dollar,

contributing to plummeting imports, and fluctuating world

commodity prices contributed to declining exports. The banking

sectors were severely stressed by a jump in non-performing loans,

and banks cut back private sector lending. These economic stresses

threaten government spending on health, education, and other social

programs.19

Implication for US Interest

United States and the West in general find themselves

increasingly dependent on the continued stability and development

of the Central Eurasian region. The United States is heavily invested

in Afghanistan, and its engagement there and in Central Asian states

Uzma Akhtar


is a long-time endeavor. The future of this region has considerable

bearing on the development of the Global War on Terrorism and in

general on U.S. security interests in Eurasia: the maintenance of

access to airspace and territory in the heart of Asia, the development

of alternative sources of energy, and the furthering of freedom and

democratic development. The Eurasian drug trade is a threat to all of

these ambitions.20 After the terrorist attacks on the United States on

September 11, 2001, the former Bush Administration stated that

U.S. policy toward Central Asia focused on three inter-related

activities: the promotion of security, domestic reforms, and energy

developments.21

Although then-U.S. Caspian emissary Elizabeth Jones in

April 2001 carefully elucidated that the United States would not

intervene militarily to halt incursions by Islamic terrorists into

Central Asia, this stance was effectively reversed after September

11, 2001. U.S.-led counter-terrorism efforts were undertaken in

Afghanistan.22 In October 2003, then-Assistant Secretary Jones in

testimony stressed that “our big strategic interests [in Central Asia]

are not temporary” and that the United States and its international

partners have no alternative but to “be a force for change in the

region.”

Participating with Members on November 18, 2009 in

launching the Congressional Caucasus on Central Asia, Assistant

Secretary of State Robert Blake, Jr. stated that the Obama

Administration” has placed a high priority on building partnerships

and enhancing our political engagement in Central Asia.” Signs of


ISSRA Papers 201050

this enhanced engagement include the establishment of high-level

annual bilateral consultations with each of the regional states on

counter-narcotics, counterterrorism, democratic reform, rule of

law, human rights, relations with NGOs, trade and investment,

health, and education23

Reactions to U.S.-Led Coalition Actions in Iraq

U.S. ties to the Central Asian states appeared generally

sound in the immediate wake of U.S.-led coalition operations in Iraq

in March-April 2003 to eliminate state-sponsored terrorism and

weapons of mass destruction. Initial responses in the region ranged

from support by Uzbekistan to some expressions of concern by

Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan that diplomacy had not been given

enough of a chance. Alleged incidents where civilians have been

killed during U.S. operations have been criticized by some Islamic

groups and others in Central Asia.

Designations of Terrorist Organizations

The U.S. government has moved to classify various groups

in the region as terrorist organizations, making them subject to

various sanctions. In September 2000, the State Department

designated the IMU, led by Yuldash, as a Foreign Terrorist

Organization, stating that the IMU resorts to terrorism, actively

threatens U.S. interests, and attacks American citizens. Among other

terrorist groups, then-CIA Director Porter Goss testified to the

Senate Armed Services Committee on March 17, 2005, that the

IJG/IJU “has become a more virulent threat to U.S. interests and

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local governments.” On the other hand, the United States has not yet

classified Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) as a terrorist group.24

Military Cooperation:

U.S. security accords were concluded with several Central

Asian states after September 11, 2001. These include a U.S.-

Uzbekistan Declaration on the Strategic Partnership signed on

March 12, 2002, that included a nonspecific security guarantee. The

United States affirmed that “it would regard with grave concern any

external threat” to Uzbekistan’s security and would consult with

Uzbekistan “on an urgent basis” regarding a response Kazakh

accords were signed in 2002 on the emergency use of Kazakhstan’s

Almaty airport and on military-to-military relations. Turkmenistan,

which has sought to remain neutral, allowed the use of its bases for

refueling and humanitarian trans-shipments. Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have sent several military liaison

officers to USCENTCOM.25

Closure of Kurshi-Khanabad

Uzbekistan on July 29 demanded that the United States

vacate K2 within six months. On November 21, 2005, the United

States officially ceased operations to support Afghanistan at K2.

Many K2 activities shifted to the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan.

Some observers viewed the closure of K2 and souring U.S.-Uzbek

relations as setbacks to U.S. Influence in the region and as gains for

Russian and Chinese influence. Others suggested that U.S. ties with

other regional states provided continuing influence and that U.S.


ISSRA Papers 201052

criticism of human rights abuses might pay future dividends among

regional populations26

Emphasizes on Kazakhstan as Strategic Partner

With the closure of K2 and the cooling of U.S.-Uzbek

relations, the United States appeared to shift more of its regional

emphasis to Kazakhstan. In a joint statement issued at the close of

Nazarbayev’s September 2006 U.S. visit, the two countries hailed

progress in “advancing our strategic partnership.”

The Manas Airbase in Kyrgystan

In early 2006, Kyrgyz President Bakiyev reportedly

requested that lease payments for use of the Manas airbase be

increased to more than $200 million per year and at the same time

re-affirmed Russia’s free use of its nearby base. After reportedly

drawn-out negotiations, the United States and Kyrgyzstan issued a

joint statement on July 14, 2006, that they had resolved the issue of

the continued U.S. use of airbase facilities at Manas.27

The “Transit Center” Agreement

The Defense Department announced on June 24, 2009, that

an agreement of “mutual benefit” had been concluded with the

Kyrgyz government “to continue to work, with them, to supply our

troops in Afghanistan, so that we can help with the overall security

situation in the region. The agreement was approved by the

legislature and signed into law by President Bakiyev, to take effect

on July 14, 2009.

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The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) of Afghanistan

Because U.S.-coalition and NATO supplies transiting

Pakistan to Afghanistan frequently were subject to attacks, the

Central Asian region has become an important alternative transit

route. Gen. David Petrels, the Commander of the U.S. Central

Command, visited Kazakhstan and Tajikistan in late January 2009 to

negotiate alternative air, rail, road, and water routes for the

commercial shipping of supplies to support NATO and U.S.

operations in Afghanistan. To encourage a positive response, the

U.S. embassies in the region announced that the United States

planned to purchase many non-military goods locally to transport to

the troops in Afghanistan.

US Security Assistance

In FY2008, peace and security assistance was boosted

further to $213 million, with increases in Defense and Energy

Department funding for Global Threat Reduction in Kazakhstan and

Uzbekistan, Defense Department Sec. 1206 funding for Caspian Sea

security training and equipping in Kazakhstan, Defense Department

Sec. 1206 funding for counter-terrorism training and equipping in

Kyrgyzstan, and Defense Department Sec. 1207 funding for

stabilization operations and security sector reform in Tajikistan. In

percentage terms, peace and security assistance has become an

increasingly prominent aid sector. Budgeted peace and security aid

to Central Asia in FY2002 was 34% of all aid to the region.

Budgeted peace and security assistance increased to 78% of all aid

to the region in FY2007, and was 66% in FY2008.28


ISSRA Papers 201054

Non-Proliferation

The breakup of the Soviet Union, U.S. fears of nuclear

proliferation were focused on Nuclear-armed Kazakhstan, and it has

received the bulk of regional CTR and Department of Energy (DOE)

aid for de-Nuclearization, enhancing the “chain of custody,” and

demilitarization. Some CTR and DOE aid also has gone to

Uzbekistan. On May 19, 2009, the U.S. National Nuclear Security

Administration announced that CTR funds had been used to remove

162.5 lb. of highly enriched uranium “spent” fuel from Kazakhstan.

The material originally had been provided by Russia to Kazakhstan,

and was returned to Russia by rail for storage in a series of four

shipments between December 2008 and May 2009.

Counter Narcotics Aid

There is rising U.S. concern, since Latin American and other

international organized groups have become involved in the Central

Asian drug trade, and European governments have begun to focus

on combating drug trafficking through this new route. U.S. policy

also emphasizes the threat of rising terrorism, crime, corruption, and

instability posed by illegal narcotics production, use, and trafficking

in Central Asia.29

Military Assistance

The principal components of U.S. military assistance to

Central Asia are Foreign Military Financing (FMF), International

Military Education and Training (IMET), the Regional Defense

Counter-Terrorism Fellowship Program (CTFP), the Regional

Uzma Akhtar


Centers for Security Studies (RCSS), and transfers of Excess

Defense Articles (EDA).

Safety of US Citizens and Investments

The U.S. State Department advises U.S. citizens and firms

that there are dangers of terrorism in the region, including from

ETIM, IMU, and Al Qaeda. Groups such as Hizb ul Tahrir (HT) also

foment anti-Americanism. The Peace Corps pulled personnel out of

Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan after September 11,

2001, but in a policy aimed at fostering pro-U.S. views among

Islamic peoples, personnel were re-deployed by mid-2002

(Uzbekistan declined Peace Corps services in 2005). U.S. military

personnel in the region mostly stay on base, and travel in groups off

base to maximize their safety.30

Embassy Security

Immediately after September 11, 2001, U.S. embassies in the

region were placed on heightened alert because of the danger of

terrorism. They have remained on alert because of the ongoing

threat of terrorism in the region. The IMU explained that the suicide

bombing of the U.S. embassy in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in July 2004

was motivated by U.S. support for Karimov and U.S. opposition to

Islam. No embassy personnel were injured. Embassy personnel also

may have faced greater danger to their personal safety after Uzbek

officials accused the embassy of orchestrating and financing the

May 2005 uprising in Andijon.31


ISSRA Papers 201056

Analyses

American policy makers took advantage of conditions

created by the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York

and Washington to shake up the strategic balance in Central Asia.

The biggest complication, though, has been US advocacy of a

“freedom agenda”, which was designed in large part to justify the

ongoing human and financial costs of the war. Moscow, competing

for energy stakes, has made substantial investments in Uzbekistan’s

oil and gas industry. The Russian have also promised Turkmenistan

that they will finance construction of new pipeline along the Caspian

coast as alternative to a plan supported by the United States and the

European for an undersea pipeline across the Caspian.

Bush administration has begun to group the Central Asian

states with India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in various policy-

making activities of the US government. The priority of US policy

in the region has been energy security. Washington has pressed for

multiple pipelines as the key to protecting the independence and

economic security of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which border

the energy-rich Caspian Sea.

US policy makes did hope that theses states would make

steady progress towards becoming democracies with market-driven

economies. U.S Kazakh security cooperation has increased; there is

no possibility of the United States gaining basing rights in

Kazakhstan. Similarly US interest in Turkmenistan has increased

subsequently. US access to Turkmenistan facilities was increased

after Washington fell out with Tashkent.

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Despite official statements to the contrary, the Central Asian

states are less important to Washington, in and themselves, than they

are as facilitators of US policies towards other countries, or in the

pursuit of American double standard, which they believe many

European states adhere to as well. Because of this perceived double

standard, many Central Asia prefer dealing with Russia and China

and with Asian states generally.

Central Asian leaders frequently feel caught in a struggle

between great powers. So United States should find new ways to

advance its security interests in the Caspian region providing

opportunities for local elites and leaders to broaden their options by

closer engagements with Washington, in ways that do not

antagonize either Russia or China.

Conclusion

The U.S. is not unlikely to become a single dominant power

in Central Asia, nor is there any reason why it should attempt to

achieve such a status. Realistic goals—energy security; proximity to

the main theaters of operation in the war on terrorism, Afghanistan

and Pakistan; combating the traffic in drugs, weapons, and weapons

of mass destruction technology; and encouraging participatory and

transparent social and economic development—require a sustainable

engagement. This is especially the case as the U.S. focuses its

resources and attention elsewhere, primarily in the Middle East. The

strategic location of the region and the intense global competition

over its energy reserves will, to a certain extent, keep the U.S.

involved. U.S. engagement is particularly constricted by uneasy


ISSRA Papers 201058

relations with current Central Asian regimes, whose authoritarian

tendencies are of no consequence to Russia, China, Iran, and even

India. Even if the U.S. had the capacity to limit the presence of other

large powers in the region, to do so would be unwise. First of all, the

primary U.S. goals in the region are energy security and proximity

to terrorist threats, not outright control. The U.S. and other great

powers share the goals of stability, economic development, and

preventing religious radicalization and terrorism. Rather than openly

antagonizing China, Russia, or India over their involvement in

Central Asia, the U.S. should pursue the benefits to be derived from

regional cooperation.

It is vital that the U.S. maintain and expand a multifaceted

presence in Central Asia. The benefits of U.S. involvement accrue to

both sides: The U.S. can protect its security, military and

geopolitical interests and its energy access while helping to promote

the development of democracy and civil society in Central Asia. The

developing nations of Eurasia can gain access to much-needed U.S.

investment, security assistance, and global integration above and

beyond what they are offered by Russia, China, India, and Iran.

Recommendations

There are two recommendations for Central Asian security in

international action plan perspective. One is An OSCE-led Central

Asia security initiatives and other is that the international

community should develop a new approach to assistance to Central

Asian states in the spheres of economy and security. U .S. and

Central Asian political, economic, and security interests are not

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mutually exclusive and may be better achieved through cooperation

than through confrontation. Development and security of supply and

transit is one such common interest that needs to be cultivated.

Seeing eye-to-eye on every issue should not prevent states

from working together to attain shared goals. Even if relations

between the U.S. and Central Asian states or Russia are at a post-

Soviet low point, common interests such as energy development,

fighting terrorism, and limiting nuclear non-proliferation should be

pursued and cultivated.

To achieve these goals, the National Security Council should

coordinate activities by the U.S. State Department, Department of

Defense, Department of Energy, and other departments to pursue the

following policies:

Continue to encourage the governments of India, China,

and Pakistan to create alternatives to the Russian energy

transit monopoly by establishing new energy transit

routes (pipelines, shipping lines, and railroads) that head

west and, in some cases, east and south.

Encourage multinational corporations to diversify energy

transit routes to mitigate risk. This is a common interest

of the U.S., members of the EU, and China

Develop closer ties to Central Asian states by stressing

mutual gains from Western investment, military

presence, and security cooperation. Specifically.

Assist economic and legislative reform in order to attract

and protect foreign investors and spur economic growth.


ISSRA Papers 201060

Coordinate reform activities with international financial

institutions and programs administered by the members

of the EU, such as the British Know-How Funds.

Strengthen military-to-military, intelligence, anti-

terrorism, and law enforcement relationships

Enhance democratic and civil society institutions through

programs administered by the National Endowment of

Democracy and non-governmental organizations.

Emphasize common security interests, especially fighting

Islamist terrorism, and pursue military-to-military

cooperation when it is in U.S. interests

Adopt a nuanced approach to states whose leaders are not

amenable to cooperation with the U.S., specifically

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Specifically:

Assist economic and legislative reform in order to attract

and protect foreign investors and spur economic growth.

Coordinate reform activities with international financial

institutions and programs administered by the members

of the EU, such as the British Know-How Fund

Strengthen military-to-military, intelligence, anti-

terrorism, and law enforcement relationships; and

Enhance democratic and civil society institutions through

programs administered by the National Endowment of

Democracy and non-governmental organizations.

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Adopt a nuanced approach to states whose leaders are not

amenable to cooperation with the U.S., specifically

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Specifically:

Emphasize common security interests, especially fighting

Islamist terrorism, and pursue military-to-military

cooperation when it is in U.S. interests;

Facilitate energy cooperation, including private-sector

investment projects and transit (pipeline) projects that

enhance hydrocarbon supply to global markets;

Support secular or moderate Islamic democratic

opposition parties or figures (who necessarily must be

opposed to any jihads or terrorist–extremist sponsor

states or organizations) without openly pursuing regime

change;

Examine and encourage possibilities for stability-

enhancing dialogue between existing regimes and

democratic and moderate Islamic opposition groups to

facilitate the opening of the political system;

Engage, where necessary, in public information

campaigns to criticize existing leaderships and expose

their abuses; and

Guard against Islamist backlash by supporting

recognition and dialogue between existing regimes and

secular opposition groups and other legitimate, non-

destabilizing political actors.


ISSRA Papers 201062

U.S. involvement and assistance contribute to the economic,

political, social, and security development of the states of Central

Asia. The United States should remain as engaged as possible in the

region. Given recent tensions concerning values, preferred economic

models, and political systems, such engagement will be complex.

Continuous dialogue with regional actors, as well as with Russia,

China, the European Union and its key members, Japan, and India,

is required to coordinate policies and prevent crises.

Notes

1 Der Spiegel, Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower (London: Zed Books Ltd., 2002), 60.2 Mikhail A. Molchanov, “The Political Economy of Energy Sector in the Central Asian-Caspian Sea Region” (Department of Political Science, St.Thomas University, Canada, 1995), 8.3 Yuri Yevdokimov, “The Politics of Energy and Gas in the Central Asia” (Department of Civil Engineering and Economics, University of New Brunswick, Canada, 2000).15.4 Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh “Transition and Human Security in Central Asia” Proceedings of the Round Table Conference in Ashgabad, Turkmenistan, 22-24 April 2002.5 Olivier Roy, “The New Central Asia: Creation of New Nation” (London: Oxford Press, 2000), 46.6 Roy Alison,ed, “Central Asia Security: The New International Context” (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2001), 78.7 Jim Nichol, Central Asia’ Security: Issues and implications for U.S interest(USA: Congressional Research Service, 2010).3.8 Martha Brill Olcott, “Central Asia: Terrorism, Religious Extremism, Regional Security” Carnegie for International Peace, October, 2003, 2.9 Jatin Kumar Mohanty, “Terrorism and Militancy in Central Asia” (Delhi: Kalplaz Publishers, 2006), 53.10 Thomas H. Johnson and Colin Lober, “Central Asia Terrorism: A Problem in Search of Definition and Policy” (Islamabad: Institute of Regional Studies, 2005), 187.11 Svante E.Cornell and Niklas L.P Swanstrom, “The Eurasian Drug Trade A Challenge to Regional Security”, (Department of Eurasian Studies, Uppsala University, Sweden, 2006), 19.

Uzma Akhtar


12 Open Source Center. Europe: Daily Report (hereafter EDR), June 5, 2009.13 Martha Brill Olcott, “Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2007:32.1414 Lena Jonson and Roy Alison, Ed, “Central Asian Security: Internal and External dynamics” (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), 10.15 Niklas L. P. Swanstrom. “The Prospects for Multilateral Conflict Prevention and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia”, Central Asia Survey23, no. 1(March 2004): 41.16 Tog Zhan Kassenova, “Central Asia: Regional Security and WMD Proliferation Threats” Central Asia at the Crossroads, March 2007.17 Philip Macklin, “Managing Water in Central Asia” (London: Royal Institute for International Affiars, 2000), 187.18 Farkhed Tolipov, “Central Asia” Caucasus Analyst December 1 2004.19 CAREC .Report of Senior Officials to the 8th Ministerial Conference on Central Asia Regional Cooperation, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, October 16, 2009.20 Swant E Cornel, “Finding Balance: The Foreign Policies of Central Asia’s States” Strategic Asia 2007, 65.21 U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia. Hearing: U.S. Policy in Central Asia. Testimony by Richard A. Boucher, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, April 26, 2006.22 Christopher M. Blanchard. “Afghanistan: Narcotics and US policy” CRS Report, February 27, 2009.23 US house of Representatives, Committee on International Relations, Submission on the Middle East and Central Asia, Assessing Energy and Security Issues in Central Asia Testimony of Steven Mann Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia Affairs,, July 25,2006.24 Washington Post, December 27, 2004, p. A4.25 The State Department. Fact Sheet November 27, 2002; Supporting Air and Space Expeditionary Forces, RAND, 2005.26 US Fed News, July10, 2008.A7.27 Associated Press, July24, 2006.28“ US Senate, Committee on Foreign Relation, Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs” Hearing on Re-evaluating U.S Policy in Central Asia, December 15, 2009.29 Svante Cornell, “Narcotics and Conflict: Tracing the Link and Its Implications” Working Paper(Uppsala University, Department of East European Studies, February 2005), 38.30 Barbara Harries, ed, “Globalization and Insecurities, and Responses: An Introduction Essay,”(New York: Pal grave, 2002), 42.31 A. Brownfield, “Al-Qaeda’s Drug Running Network,” Jane’s Terrorism and Security Monitor (February 1 2004),67.

ISSRA Papers 201064

IMPACT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICYA CASE STUDY OF SWAT OPERATION

(OPERATION RAH-E-RASAT)

Mubarak Ahmad & Zaira Irfan Cheema

Abstract

Public Opinion’ is a phenomenon that took its toll in 18th

century against the idea of an absolutist state, strengthening further

the democracy ideals. Public opinion ‘dikes’ the process of public

policy and account for its success or failure. The ‘Elite theorists’

stressed that elite class decides policy, the ‘Group theorists’ contends

that pressure groups control it, whereas ‘Liberal Democratic Model’

argues that individual decides the fate of policy. Public opinion

change over a policy issue is studied by Larry N Gerston in the

model ‘Internal Triggering Mechanism’ that is suggestive of the fact

that, ‘scope, intensity, timing and resources explain the impact over

opinion change. This paper contends that though public opinion is a

very weak channel of input, however it is most effective on visible

and highly emotional issues.

Terrorism and resultant counterterrorism policy converges on

population centers. Reluctant and confused civilian minds are the

battleground for the belligerents. Therefore, with regards to

counterterrorism operations, the influence of public opinion on

policy outcome is very significant. The paper observed the

covariational congruence among the two variables i-e public opinion

and success in Swat Operation (Operation Rah-e-Haq). Lack of

clarity on the technical aspect of identification of “policy problem”



resulted in confused policy. The public opinion fluctuated and was

not favorable for a military operation in Swat till early 2009, but then

multiple variables contributed to the sympathetic perception. An

International Research Institute (IRI) survey conducted in July 2009

noticed 69 percent support for the military operation. Quantified

graphical and survey data suggests that military success in Swat

followed the trajectory of public opinion. Hence proving the fact that

public opinion plays vital role in counterterrorism operations at all

the three stages of policy process i-e. Policy formulation (Planning),

policy execution and policy outcome. This paper recommends that a

Public Opinion Phase (POP) with empirically verifiable benchmarks

should precede all major counterterrorism operations.

Introduction

The relationship of Public opinion and Public policy is a

complex phenomenon that has both external and internal variables to

its effect. As a mechanism public opinion ‘dikes’ public policy or

changes its channels but except in revolutionary cases the policies are

not initiated by it. “The force of Public opinion is partisan,

spasmodic, simple minded and external”.1 David Easton equated

political action with a system where demands and support reinforced

by the feedback act as inputs and produce public polices in the shape

of outputs2. Although being a primitive and mechanical model–

acknowledged by David Easton himself3, yet, rational actor theory

substantiates the argument that in a representative system the public

policy, in principal, should respond to the public opinion. “The

responsiveness of political institutions to the citizens’ preferences is

Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy A Case Study Swat Operation (Operation Rah-e-Rast)

ISSRA Papers 201066

central to democratic theory and practice”4. However, it is the

manipulative potential of the political and ruling elites, which divides

the researchers on actual impact of public opinion on public policy.

This paper explores the covariational congruence (if both move

in same direction) of public opinion and public policy. We will

measure the trajectory of public opinion leading to operation Rah-e-

Rast and assess the hypothesis that public opinion plays vital role in

counterterrorism operations at all the three stages of policy process i-

e. Policy formulation (Planning), policy execution and policy

outcome. In fact, as far as counterterrorism operations are concerned

it is emphasized that “public opinion is an important leitmotif of

policymaking”.5

Public Option

The public opinion holds its importance from the times of

Romans and Greeks, Plato was no democrat and according to him

‘doxa’(opinion) is a dubious and changing phenomenon, so the

political control should rely with ‘episteme’(knowledge) which

means experts should be in charge of political decisions not the

general public. Aristotle gave opinion a favor, he added

‘phronesis’(wisdom) suggesting that political deliberation should be

on informed guesswork, and judgement.6 The term ‘public opinion’

was derived from a French word ‘opinion publique’ and its an 18th

century invention .The response on a particular matter is called as

opinion and “Opinion is an indication of attentiveness”7, of public

towards a related issue.



In fact, during the 18th century “publicity was a ‘battle cry’

against the Absolutist State, its aim was to expose secrecy and hence

subject them to public criticism”8. Public opinion has been a bone of

contention among Greek / Roman philosophers and contemporary

social scientists. “Opinion, a villain of philosophy, became public

opinion - a hero of politics”.9The famous scholar of public opinion

Ole R. Holsti stated that “public opinion is a tenet of democratic

theory”. The most common modern tools for measuring the opinion

on specific issues are through ‘opinion polls’.

Public Policy

Public Policy is what “governments choose to do or not to do

(Thomas Dye 1992: 2). Such a definition covers government action,

inaction, decisions and non-decisions as it implies a very deliberate

choice between alternatives (see Hall and Jenkins 1995). The ‘Elite

theorists’ suggests that there’s an elite class that makes decisions,

‘Group theorists’ contends that “public policy is and should be

controlled by pressure groups”10, whereas the ‘Liberal Democractic

Model’ stressed ‘individual rationality in the arena of public choice’.

In these models of Public Policy process the elite theorists leave no

room for public opinion but the group theorists created an organized

body of it and liberals let individuals to have freedom of expression.

Linkage between Public Opinion and Public Policy

Norman Luttbeg outlines the theoretical models of the political

linkages between the public and policy-makers in two broad groups:

coercive models and non coercive models (Luttbeg, 1981). In

coercive models, the public applies pressure, either real or potential


ISSRA Papers 201068

electoral pressure, to force lawmakers to enact the desired policies.11

The Normative Democratic theory asserts public opinion to be the

final verdict and through ‘procedural democracy’ theory it

establishes the fact that “the control that voters exert through reward

and punishment in elections- provides public opinion with the means

to constrain what governments do”.12

Walter Lippman criticized and said “no where the idyllic

theory of democracy realized”13 whereas the Oxford Handbook of

Public Policy refers that “Policy, is not a black box from which the

analyst can understand the outputs and outcomes, nor is a simple

extension of culture or public opinion”14. Lippman simplifies the

impact of Public Opinion on public policy through use of the term

of ‘direct action’…with power to say yes or no’ to a policy option.

Whereas V.O Keys rejects the presumption that opinion exerts direct

influence on a policy decision and argues that it is a system of dikes

that channel public action. In his final analysis ‘public opinion

constrains rather than determines the decisions governments

make’.15

Theoretical Explanations for Public Opinion Change

Majority of researchers concede that public opinion is an

agency of change, but another debate highlights a very relevant issue;

how a change is noticed by the agency or what characteristics make a

subject salient enough to interest ‘The Public’. Public opinion

responded to the brutal operationalization by the militants about their

concepts of authority and its enforcement in Swat. Centuries ago

Plato noticed that change in public opinion “is forced when they



occur under the violence of some pain and grief”16. It was the

realization by the public that militant groups are hurting their basic

beliefs and life style which promptd them to voice their opinion and

resultant support for the operation Sawat. The change in opinion was

brought through specific positive appeals and by using Robert

Owen’s famous tactic; to change Public Opinion, “never argue,

repeat your assertion”. Larry N Gerston constructed a model of

Public opinion change over any policy issue. He explaining ‘Internal

Triggering Mechanism’ he asserts that it is the linkage between the

perception of a ‘problem’ and the demand for political action that

specifies the impact of opinion. “Scope, intensity, timing and

resources explain the impact of triggering mechanism on the public

policy”17, and if these factors become more pronounced the influence

of the triggering event becomes more important in formulation of

issues for public agenda. Another important factor that is evident in

relation to public opinion change in Swat is that the ideological basis

can not be changed through policy. The situations do attract positive

or negative opinion, depending upon how ‘The Problem’ is

formulated but the ideological principles are never compromised by

the general public, irrespective of the efficacy of the policy. E.H

Paget said “as a rule people oppose situations not principles. Sudden

shifts in opinion may occur if the situation is modified"

The theoretical basis of this paper is that “For policy impact,

public opinion is a very weak channel of in put; however it is most

effective on visible and highly emotional issues”18. Being highly

emotional, the results of counterterrorism operations in Swat were


ISSRA Papers 201070

very sensitive to the public opinion. Policy outcome or the success of

the operation followed the trajectory of public opinion.

Swat Operation (Operation Rah-e-Rast) and Public Option

The terrorist activities in Pakistan remained confined to

Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Provincially

Administered Tribal Areas (PATA). However during 2007 the

Taliban started asserting themselves in the settled areas of Swat (100

km from Islamabad). The development, forced the Pakistan to

launch its first of the series of counterterrorism operations code

named Rah-e-Rast (the true path) on October 25, 2007. The

counterterrorism policy was not supported by the public opinion.

Majority of the population perceived the Global War on Terror

(GWOT) as American war19. No major political party owned the

military operation in swat. In the face of highly divided public

opinion the terrorism policy and resultant military operation

remained supple on the insurgents and lacked clear direction. A

confused counterterrorism policy provided an opportunity to the

Taliban to readjust, regroup and bolster their support. Where as, the

government was oblivious to the public opinion, Taliban very

intelligently manipulated the public perception in their favor. They

claimed their legitimacy through appeal to the popular demand of

Islamic sharia.

It was lack of effort on the part of government to win over

the public opinion which allowed the Taliban to retain their

legitimacy and challenge the established order. The failure of two

subsequent operations June 2007 and Jan 2009 allowed the Taliban



to operationalize their concept of Sharia law. The hitherto vague

concept of Sharia Law started affecting the life of common citizens

as well as their perceptions towards GWOT. The Taliban handed

down summery punishments in the shape of beheadings and public

lashings to the violators.

In Feb 2009, the provincial government signed a peace deal

with Sufi Muhammad of Tehreek-e-Nifaz-a-shariat-e-Mohamadi

(The Movement for Enforcement of Mohammedan Law) of swat.

This was a clever move on the part of the government and was

aimed at de-legitimating of the cause of the Taliban and affect the

public opinion. Now Sufi Muhammad was suppose to ask the

Taliban to disarm as their main demand had been met. The move

allowed the public to see Taliban in their true colors and make their

own opinion. The public opinion clearly had two distinct phases. In

first phase (2002 – 2008) the public perceptions about military

operations and role of Taliban were divided and confused. In second

phase (2009 onwards), public opinion showed a distinct shift in

favor of military operations the role of Taliban. In succeeding paras,

we will trace back the public opinion which was captured through

the available data on public opinion polls and newspapers.

Public Opinion Prior to 2009/Operation Swat

Ever since 2002, Pakistan’s military operations against

terrorists along north western borders had been unpopular with the

masses. The sentiment had been reinforced by indiscriminate use of

force like the October 2006 missile strike on a madrassa in the

Bajaur. The attack resulted in the death of 80 people housed in the


ISSRA Papers 201072

seminary and the media as a major propaganda news tool played its

role by transmitting live images of the dead bodies. Propaganda is “a

communicator with the intention of changing attitudes, opinions and

behaviors of others…..and the audience is often called in the

terminology of public opinion studies, the ‘target’.20Notwithstanding

that whether those killed were terrorists they were viewed as victims

of an unnecessary war and the opinion of the ‘target’ fell to favor

terrorists. As expected, the attack was widely condemned through

street protests, by cross sections of political divide21, led by religious

parties. similarly a massive military operation centered on the South

Waziristan city of Wana in March 2004, was forcefully rebuked by a

cross section of opposition political parties, including former Prime

Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan

Peoples Party, that are now in government22.The Mutahidda Majlis-

i-Amal, a coalition of the most powerful mainstream religious parties

that contest parliamentary elections, condemned23 the Wana attacks

as “state terrorism‟, and similar sentiments were echoed in fiery

sermons delivered in neighbourhood mosques in all of the country’s

major cities24. Government did not make any attempt to influence

the public opinion before commencement of first Swat operation,

which was widely condemned25.

As late as early 2009, the dominant sentiment among the

general public was that it is not Pakistan’s war rather an American

war. Few politicians like Imran khan26 and Jamiat-e-Islami leader

Qazi Hussain Ahmed27 influenced the public opinion by floating the

argument that tribal response is ethical as the Government forces



have encroached upon centuries old tribal traditions. In summery,

the probable variables which influenced the public opinion against

the military action prior to 2009 are enlisted below:-

Lack of regime legitimacy and political ownership.

Concentration of executive and legislative powers in

COAS, General Pervaiz musharref.

Public knowledge of the American coercion.

Long history of public legitimacy of Afghan jihad.

Effective support of the religious parties, especially

MMA’s Provincial Government in NWFP.

Governments confused Anti terror policy, and resultant

lack of resolve.

Taliban’s ability to disguise political ambitions, in the

popular demand of ‘Sharia Law’.

Lack of precise Intelligence.

‘Red Mosque’ operation28

A Swing of Public Opinion – 2009 onwards

Prior to Operation Swat, two military operations followed by

political peace deals emboldened the Taliban. During the early half

of 2009, Taliban fully operationalised their concepts of ‘sharia law’.

The period witnessed summery executions and vast human rights

violations. Taliban publicly owned the suicide attacks on civilian

targets and exposed their political plans for territorial gains. The

period witnessed a critical shift in the public perception about the

whole process and focused on the public policy ‘problem’. The

media and government efforts managed to present ‘establishment of


ISSRA Papers 201074

the writ of the state’ as the ‘Problem’. Ordinary citizen exceedingly

understood that Taliban wants to overthrow the established order

through violence. This helped the public to focus their opinion.

Contrary to previous military operations (Jan 2009 & Jun

2007), Swat Operation (Operation Rah-e- Rast) launched on 3 May

2010 had overwhelmingly public and parliamentary support.

Military managed a spectacular success and evicted the Taliban

from the area. The operation involved the evacuation and

rehabilitation of around 30 million of civilian population. Despite all

the hardships and collateral damage public viewed the operation

favorably. The probable variables, which helped in the shift of the

public opinion, are:-

Transition to popular democracy i-e restoration of

relative regime legitimacy.

Military resolve and a focused Swat counterterrorism

policy.

Operationalization of Taliban’s abstract sharia

concepts.

Effective media campaign.

Focus on the ‘Policy Problem’.

Public Opinion Trends – Pakistan’s War on Terror

Over the years, different opinion poll organizations have

captured public perceptions on Pakistan’s military operations and the

role of Taliban through opinion surveys. Relevant trends are

reproduced here. At occasions, available data is short of desired

level, nevertheless, it gives measurable trends which clearly support



our line that the success of military’s operations in swat and public

opinion has a congruence of co variability.

0102030405060708090

100

Sept.07

Nov.07

Jan.08

Jun.08

Oct.08

Mar.09

Jul. 09

AgreeDisagreeDK/NR

Agree or Disagree? The Taliban and Al Qaeda Operating in Pakistan is a Serious Threat

Do You Think that Pakistan Should Cooperate with the United

States on its War Against Terror?

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Sept

. 06

Jun.

07

Nov. 0

7

Jun.

08

Mar

. 09

AgreeDisagreeDK/NR

SOURCE IRI


ISSRA Papers 201076

Although Pakistan's major offensive against Taliban

insurgents has displaced more than half a million Pakistanis, Gallup

data suggest the government may have some popular support for its

actions. A Gallup Poll conducted in December, well before the

current military operation, found nearly half of Pakistanis (47%)

believed the Taliban's presence in some areas of the country has a

negative influence; 14% said it has a positive influence and 39% had

no opinion.29

A different survey undertaken by the U.S. polling firm

Gallup around the same time, which covered all of Pakistan, found

only 41 percent supporting the operation. The Gallup poll also found

a higher number—43 percent—favoring political resolution through

dialogue.



According to a Gallup Pakistan poll conducted in the last

week of October 2009 51% of the public supported the military

operations, only 13% opposed it while a large proportion, 36%, were

unsure.3 On May 18, 2009 an „All Parties Committee‟ comprising

all major political parties represented in federal parliament signed a

resolution endorsing Operation Rah-e-Rast in the northwestern

Malakand Division which includes the Swat valley. The resolution

emphasised the need to protect the “writ of the state.”4 Public

support for Operation Rah-e-Rast and the subsequent operation in

South Waziristan was also evident.

On dialogue vs military action

Question: In your view, should the Pakistani government have a

dialogue with the Taliban of Swat, or carry out military action?

Some people support dialogue, others support military action. What

is your view?

Military Action 41%Dialogue 43%Don't Know 16%Total 100%


ISSRA Papers 201078

A survey conducted by the International Republican Institute

(IRI) in July 2009, which excluded the Federally Administered Tribal

Areas (FATA) and parts of the North West Frontier Province

(NWFP)—the regions directly affected by war—found 69 percent of

respondents supporting the military operation

in Swat.

Recommendations

Failure, followed by success in the same theatre has numerous

lessons. Few recommendations, mainly from the perspective of

public opinion and public policy, are enlisted:-

Public Opinion Management should precede Counterterrorism

Operations

Contrast in Public opinion before and after 2009 explains the

story of the failure of two previous military operations and success

of the third one. It would be naïve, not to give due credit to other

variables like military resolve, etc, but the public opinion served as

grundnorm for their effectiveness. As the counterterrorism

operations are fought amidst the population, leverage over public

perception, advantage the opposing forces for control of time and

space. A comprehensive public opinion management plan should

precede operational plan. The Public Opinion Plan (POP) must have

empirically verifiable benchmark. In counterterrorism operations,

operational plan should only be executed if and when the POP

indicators are positive. POP should be formulated and executed at

the highest possible interagency level. The department of



Government and Public Policy (GPP) at faculty of contemporary

studies should be tasked to prepare a comprehensive and empirically

verifiable POP, for major counterterrorism operations. ISPR, in

coordination with field formations should execute the POP in clearly

distinctive, pre operation period – may be named as POP Phase.

Exploit Deviation from ‘the Ideology’

Practical world is quite different from the ideological positions.

As said by E.H Paget, “people do not change their ideology but react

to situations”. Taliban‘s actions should be confronted with their

ideological positions. During the early phases, Taliban managed to

extract legitimacy for their cause due to appeal to the popular

ideology. The people should be informed about the grey areas in

their practice and stated positions.

Identification and Communication of Right ‘Policy Problem’

A given situation, from the public policy perspective, presents

many problems. Our capacity to understand the correct ‘Problem’

will dictate policy response. A mistake on part of the policy

planners, at the problem identification stage, has the potential to

jeopardize the policy outcome. Therefore, before any policy

planning the ‘problem’ should be clearly identified and precisely

stated. This will focus the effort and save precious resources.

To win the public support it is equally important that people

clearly know the ‘Problem’. Many public opinion polls show that

there is lot of confusion in public mind as to what is the ‘Problem’.

This single variable has largely contributed to the divided public

opinion and involuntary support to the militants. Repeated efforts


ISSRA Papers 201080

should be made to inform the public – after identification, of the

correct ‘Problem’. To convey the message to the public mind follow

Robert Owen’s saying, once again, “never argue, repeat your

assertion”.

Regime Legitimacy

Any public policy draws its strength from the legitimacy of its

authors. Peoples’ consent to the regime translates their consent to

the policy. A regime, who is struggling for its own legitimacy, is not

in a position to rally the public opinion for an unpleasant action. In

our case as well, return to popular electoral democracy attracted

some of the public opinion away from the militants. Constitution is a

document of social consent. A legitimate regime should be as close

to this social contract as possible for favorable public opinion

resultant support for its counterterrorism policies.

Political Ownership

Political ownership of the operation by central and KP

provincial governments contributed considerably in the success of

Swat operations. Political authority and executive authority should

be distinctively separate in counterterrorism operations. The strategic

decision to launch the counterterrorism operation in a population

center should be visibly with the legislature / political authority.

Military wing of the strategy should at no occasion be seen as

dictating the decision. This measure will ensure public sympathy for

the dutiful and honest servants of the state, who are laying their lives

for the public mandate.



In a democratic state the voice of public is like the order by

Kings, and it might be over.rated but it should not be under-rated in

any sense. The major representative bodies should not only be taken

into confidence but also to be directed to voice their support over the

military operations that will strengthen the effect over public. The

leaders are not less than symbolic statures of wisdom and virtue so

their support to a military cause will ultimately shape the opinion in

favor of the institutional efforts to curb terror.

Media Impact – Emotional Visuals

Few Screams of ‘Flogging Girl’, matched the years of pious

sermons of ‘Moulana Radio’ those visuals created a stream of

pricking conscience from the echo .chambers of public opinion

holocaust. So the propagands’s famous tool should be well handled

by expertise of opinion management to not only mould but to

checker if any source is going against the mainstream planned line of

action.

A famous quote suggests “ God is not on the side of big

battalions, but on the side of those who shoot the best”. A Planned

line of action, a careful drawn strategy, measured steps to further and

intelligent target shot by bulls eye darts to take Public opinion as a

part of war strategic theme will be effective measure.


ISSRA Papers 201082

Notes

1 Walter Lippman ,The Phantom Public, (New Brunswick, Mac-Millan Company ,4th edition,2004) , 141 2 Political thought on david easton3 ibid, p -4 Jeff Manza, Fay Lomax Cook, Benjamin I. Page, Navigating public opinion:

polls, policy, and the future of American democracy5 Yehezkel Dror , Public Policymaking Reexamined (Chandler Publishing Company ,fifth printing ,2003 ), 2886 - Theodore Lewis Glasser, Public Opinion and the Communication of Consent( Guilford Pres ,1995), 47 Matthew Baum,Soft News Goes to War: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy in The New Media Age, pg 158 Glasser, 269 Glasser 2710 Peter Woll, Public Policy ( Winthrop publishers, 1983) , 911 Luttbeg, N. R. ,Public Opinion and Public Policy: Models of Political Linkage (3rd ed.).( Itasca, Ill.:F.E. Peacock Publishers, 1981).12 Brigitte Lebens Nacos, Robert Y Shapiro, Decision making in a glass house: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy, (Rowman and little field publishers,2000), 224.13 Walter Lippman , Public Opinion , 21314 Michael Moron, Martin Rain, Robert E. Goodin, The Oxford Handbook of Public Policy, (Oxford Publishers, 2008), 172.15Christopher Page ,The Role Of Public Opinion Research in Canadian Govt, (University of Toronto Press, 2006) , 10416 William Albig, Public Opinion, (McGRAW-HILL BOOK COMPANY,2007) ,21717 Larry N. Gerston, Public Policy Making Process and principles, (M.E Sharpe Publications, 2004), 29.18 Jhon J. Harrigan. Adison Wesley Longman, Politics and policy in states and communities (1998) , 115.19 from opinion polls20 K.J Holsti , International Politics: A Framework For Analysis,(London,Prentice Hall International, 1983) ,19621 “NWFP Assembly condemns Bajaur Operation” Dawn newspaper October 31, 2006. 22“ANP chief condemns Wana operation” Dawn newspaper March 24, 2004. 23 Hassan, Ahmed “MMA condemns Fata operations” March 12, 2006.24Khan, Anwarullah “Govt asked to stop operation in Wana” Dawn newspaper March 23, 2004.25 “Eyebrows raised over Swat action in NA” Dawn newspaper.26 Khan, Imran “How to clear up this mess?” Pakpoint April 24, 200927 “Qazi Hussain Ahmad demands the government to immediately revoke expected military operation



in tribal areas.” Pakistan Press International September 7, 2003.28 Note that the rate of suicide and other bombings by non-state actors within Pakistan dramatically

increased following the siege of Islamabad‟s Red Mosque on July 10, 2007. See Meyer, Bill “Suicideattacks soar in Pakistan since 2007” Cleveland.com September 28, 2009. Available at:http://www.cleveland.com/world/index.ssf/2008/09/suicide_attacks_soar_in_pakist.html . 29 Julie Ray- Pakistanis generally see Talibans Influence As Negative.- research paper

ISSRA Papers 201084

ROLE OF MEDIA IN RESUMPTION OF PEACE TALKS

BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA

Muhammad Akram

Abstract

Pakistan and India have been adversaries to each other since

their independence. Besides having shared borders, both the

countries have a number of things common to share; like religion,

culture, language and holy places in either country. Media has

become a driving force in opinion making and shaping of

perceptions. It plays an important role in conveying information,

forming opinions and setting of trends. It even affects social

behaviour. Media’s role in influencing national and international

public opinion through round the clock coverage of worldwide

events has grown immensely in today’s ever more connected world.

This phenomenon has led the media practitioners to play even

greater role in influencing high-level international decision making.

It can also help curbing social evils prevailing in the society. Media

is greatly promoting trade, business and cultural activities across the

globe. Similarly, it can also help harmonize relations between

Pakistan and India. South Asian Free Media Association and Jang

Group of Pakistan and Times of India are the media organizations

working for the promotion of understanding between India and

Pakistan to maintain durable peace and tranquility in South Asia.

This paper will focus as to how can media bring harmony and pacify

Muhammad Akram


the relations between Pakistan and India by highlighting

commonalities among both the countries.

Introduction

In the present day world, media has become a driving force

in opinion making and shaping of perceptions. First, we shall have

to understand media and its impact. The word media denotes, “the

main means of communication with large number of people,

especially television, radio and newspapers: the mass media.” Film,

stage, music, publishing, advertising news agencies, coins, stamps,

graffiti, posters, public meetings, lectures, exhibition, and now

internet are the some of the means that can send messages to a large

number of people. Even teachers, religious leaders and social

workers can be used to spread information to the public.

Media is known as the fourth pillar of the state. Its reach,

scope and ever-present nature make it an important factor in any

nation as well as in the international politics. It plays an important

role in conveying information, forming opinions and setting of

trends. It even affects social behaviour of the people. Outwardly, it

has appeared that many countries, organizations, people and

commercial enterprises not only know to use media to present their

viewpoint effectively but can also mold it to meet their objectives.

Characteristics of Media

Media has some common traits, which are as under:-

Problems in a society get more media attention as

compared to good news; overemphasis on drama or the

Role of Media in Resumption of Peace Talks between Pakistan and India

ISSRA Papers 201086

bad news at the expense of substance and context1.

However, media does not provide workable solutions.

Media can influence people’s opinion, way of life and

their prejudices.

Media creates stereotypes.

Media pressures can undercut policymakers’ caution2.

(US aborted rescue of its embassy hostages in Iran).

Media coverage has greater impact when policy is ill

defined or unrealistic. In such cases, people are likely to

rely more heavily on media versions of the events3.

(Kargil conflict, attack on the Indian Parliament and the

Mumbai attacks).

Importance of Media

Mass media has four basic functions; to inform, to entertain,

to educate and to influence. What we receive through media

becomes perception through our knowledge, experience and

psychological surroundings. The power of media lies in its abilities

to transform perceptions into convictions. Media creates cognitive

(knowledge), attitudinal, emotional, psychological and behavioural

effects. The expansion of various media channels such as radio,

television, print media, satellite broadcasting, internet etc have

brought the media to the living rooms of most of the people. It is the

media that has made the world a global village in the real sense.

Media’s role in influencing national and international public opinion

through round the clock coverage of worldwide events has grown

immensely in today’s ever more connected world. Present world has

Muhammad Akram


become the world of infotainments. For instance, movies, dramas or

sitcoms etc. being staged, aired or played have been enlightening the

people besides entertaining themt. This phenomenon has led the

media practitioners to play even greater role in influencing high-

level international decision making. It can also help curbing social

evils prevailing in the society. Manipulation of media can create

deliberate and desired effects for specific objectives. Governments,

commercial organizations and social groups use media for their own

motives and priorities. War frenzy media can deteriorate relations

among nations. However, my prime focus will remain on optimistic

aspect of the media. These days, media determines the ultimate

winner in the contemporary arena of the international politics. It

plays an important role in shaping strategy, as it provides necessary

inputs about the changing international scene, the likely response to

international initiatives and highlighting the interdependence of

various international issues. Media biases simply cannot be forgiven

when said media have the tools to record and deliver the objective

reality of any given event so political affiliations must be cast aside4.

The world has turned into a global village with the advent of modern

means of interaction and communication. Media is greatly

promoting trade, business and cultural activities across the globe.

Similarly, it can also help harmonize relations between Pakistan and

India.

Media and Regional Integration

Social scientists are grappling with the role of media in

social cohesion and national and regional integration for a long time.


ISSRA Papers 201088

The proponents of the limited effect-models may not agree, but

many critics share the view that media can help free the people of a

country or region from mutual hostility and help achieving national

and regional integration. Needless to say that such cooperation

removes insecurity from neighbouring states and acts as a barrier

towards arms race or any type of conflict between and among them.

In South Asia, such supporting role of the media has always been

coveted various multilateral fora. The first SAARC information

ministers’ meeting held in Dhaka in April 1998 emphasized the need

for greater flow of information among member states to promote

peace and harmony in the region5.

Peace Process between Pakistan and India

Composite dialogue between Pakistan and India, generally

known as the peace process, started in January 2004 after a meeting

of Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime

Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in Islamabad6. Earlier, an eight-point

agenda was laid down in 1997, as a result of which the unanimity

found between the two leaders that was further discussed by the

respective foreign secretaries in February 2004. The eight-point

composite dialogue encompasses issues including CBMs, Jammu

and Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation

Project, Terrorism and Drug Trafficking, Economic and Commercial

Cooperation and Promotion of Friendly Exchanges in Various

Fields7. A brief review of the peace process suggests that both

countries remain unable to seek out practical and sellable solutions

to the unresolved issues. Even the less intractable problems, such as

Muhammad Akram


the Siachen and Sir Creek issues, are far from being settled8. The

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), an

organization of South Asian nations was established in 1985 and

provides platform of official and unofficial communication between

the governments and the people of the member countries including

Pakistan and India9. Similarly, South Asian Free Media Association

is also lending its cooperation and efforts to promote peace and

harmony in the South Asian region. For this purpose, a conference

was held in Islamabad on August, 2003 for confidence building and

conflict resolution10.

South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA)

An association of SAARC countries’ media persons was

established in the year 2000 as a result of South Asian Free Media

Conference in Islamabad under the slogan of “Towards Free and

Vibrant Media”. SAFMA has so far got national chapters in India,

Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In the 2nd South Asia

Free Media Conference (SAFMC) held in Kathmandu in January

2002, the country delegates agreed on ‘Declaration of Intent: Media

and peace’. Also SAFMA’s media agenda was put into action plan

in this conference. Its role in peace and confidence building is of a

catalyst and a facilitator. SAFMA’s most important capital is its

credibility. SAFMA is widely respected as politically and

ideologically unbiased; committed to peace, understanding and press

freedom. It has no hidden agenda beyond these objectives. As the

organization has a record for succeeding in bringing even high level

Indian and Pakistani politicians together for dialogue, SAFMA is


ISSRA Papers 201090

facing expectations in order to provide bridges in a number of

sectors. SAFMA’s impact in easing the tension between India and

Pakistan is difficult to measure in exact terms. Even if impact in

peace and confidence building is more a matter of quality than of

quantity, SAFMA has a potential to improve its monitoring

mechanisms. Today, there is still a mission mood prevailing, where

every SAFMA conference or initiative is labeled as «highly

successful», without parameters sufficient for assessing the real

effects11.

SAFMA objectives

SAFMA objectives, agreed at the second SAFMC, which

became part of its Memorandum of Association (Constitution),

include:

Promote tolerance, understanding, confidence building,

management and resolution of conflicts, peace, nuclear

stabilization, disarmament, economic and cultural

cooperation and people to people contact in the region.

Support full enforcement of universally recognized

human rights, including women rights, social rights of

the people and equal rights of the minorities and the

indigenous people.

Struggle for freedom of media, freed and easy access to

information, including the removal of all barriers in the

way of free flow of information and unhindered

movement of media persons and media products across

the region.

Muhammad Akram


Develop high professional standards, professional

collaboration and independence of a South Asian media

free of all biases and prejudices while monitoring all

violations of freedom of and access to information.

Benefit the people and the region with the fruits of

information revolution by promoting interactive and

collaborative media products including web-sites and

magazines.

Uphold public interests and civil society in each country

and overall interests of the people of this region.

Respect decency, privacy and dignity of all citizens and

be accountable readers/viewers autonomous and self-

regulatory12.

The politicians needed someone to break the ice. SAFMA

was there at the right time adjudicating the violation of the rights of

the citizens. Commenting on the new approach of SAFMA, M.

Ziuaddin, resident editor in Islamabad for a major daily The Dawn

and president of the Pakistani chapter of SAFMA said: – We had a

unique situation, which required new thinking. The media

community had to utilize its special position as independent

observers to overcome the animosity between Indian and Pakistani

politicians. If not, the traditional efforts from the media

organizations to dismantle barriers and improve media rights are

doomed to remain fruitless, overshadowed by the Indian-Pakistani

conflict. SAFMA is part of a greater cause, he says13.


ISSRA Papers 201092

SAFMA Parliamentary Forum

South Asian Parliament deliberated upon major policy areas

of regional cooperation and addressed most pivotal issues in its eight

marathon sessions. A South Asian Vision, Economic Cooperation in

South Asia, Water Issues and the Energy Grid, South Asian

Parliament, South Asian Human Rights Code, Cooperative Security

in South Asia, Right to Know and Independence of Media and

Bhurban Declaration on Evolving South Asian Fraternity. SAFMA

and its Indian and Pakistani chapters have, in addition, undertaken

several exercises to connect Indian and Pakistani cities and regions,

notably the Mumbai-Karachi-Mumbai exchange between the

commercial capitals, the Punjab-Punjab exchange, and historical

initiatives in order to bring journalists together across the LoC (Line

of Control) in Kashmir. The conflict in the sub-continent could be

explained in terms of missed opportunities, errors of judgment and

the colonial overhang in policy making – victims of a system

adopted in1947 without much thought, Indian and Pakistanis need to

«break free»14. SAFMA feels that the best approach is to

simultaneously tackle disputes without making regional/bi-lateral

economic cooperation a hostage to the disputes. Conflict

management, confidence-building and resolution of auxiliary issues

will create necessary conditions to settle the major disputes among

and within the states. Indo-Pak peace process will not move forward

without replacing the respective nationalist ideologies of enmity

with a new Paradigm of Detente that view bi-lateralism as mutually

re-enforcing and equally rewarding. It is just not Indo-Pak relations

Muhammad Akram


that are vital to South Asian progress towards an economic union,

relations between India and other neighbors are also very crucial for

regional amity. The Indian chapter of SAFMA is especially aware of

India’s special position in the region, bordering to all the SAARC

countries, except Afghanistan. The Indian chapter is prepared to take

on special assignments in order to assist media colleagues in

troubled neighbouring countries.

For over four years, Pakistan and India have been engaged in

a Composite Dialogue process. Discussions have been held on eight

segments ranging from cooperation in bilateral trade to people to

people contacts to addressing all outstanding issues including

Jammu and Kashmir .The overall objective has been to construct

multi-faceted good neighbourly relationship with India and build

durable peace in the region. Consequently, there has been significant

improvement in the atmospherics between the two countries15. Until

February 1994, India and Pakistan were engaged in sporadic

dialogues that always ended with zero progress. This is why both

countries formally suspended dialogue in 1994. Islamabad’s

approach was to settle the Kashmir issue first, after which the other

problems would get settled almost automatically, whereas India was

interested in dilating first on other issues, such as trade and travel.

Eventually, to bridge the gap between the two positions, both

governments agreed to address all political and territorial issues

simultaneously, including Jammu and Kashmir. Consequently, the

foreign secretaries of the two countries met in Islamabad and

resumed the stalled dialogue process in June 1997. They


ISSRA Papers 201094

institutionalized the process by identifying eight areas to deliberate

upon and established working groups to make progress on each

issue separately but simultaneously. This entire process was called

off when the Kargil confrontation occurred16. Later, in 2004, India

and Pakistan launched a renewed peace process aimed at resolving

all their longstanding disputes.

Fate of Peace Process and Mumbai Terror Attacks

Two hundred and eighty seven people were killed and more

than 100 injured in Mumbai terror attacks, on November 26, 2008.

At least seven high-profile locations were hit in India's financial

capital, including two luxury hotels where dozens of hostages were

being held17. All the terrorists were killed except one Ajmal Kasab,

who belonged to Pakistan. New Delhi blamed Islamabad for

patronizing and not curbing the network of terrorists on its soil or

territory under its control. Consequently, it halted the peace process

with Pakistan. Keeping the stalemate situation between Pakistan and

India regarding peace efforts, Jang Group of Pakistan and The

Times of India, the two leading media houses of the two neighbours,

have come together to develop a stronger track II in the diplomatic

and the cultural relations between both nations. They have branded

their peace efforts as “Aman Ki Asha: Destination Peace”18.

Aman Ki Asha

Jang Group and Times of India have launched a

comprehensive drive aimed at bringing peace between the two

neighbours, which is a noteworthy effort on the part of media. Both

the media houses have arranged a number of programmes to

Muhammad Akram


promote mutual trust between Pakistan and India in the sectors of

culture, trade and commerce, education and, etc.

Peace Efforts under Aman Ki Asha

Two media giants of Pakistan and India initiated their peace

and friendship campaign on January 1, 2010. The Times of India

started its turn with a caption “Love Pakistan”19. It states: “Feels odd

to see those two words side by side doesn't it? Terror, hatred and

fanaticism somehow sit more comfortably in our minds when we

think of the other side of the border. We have been fed in daily

doses for the last six decades and in greater doses for the last one

year. This has shut our minds to even recognize the undeniable truth

that people across the border are, above all, human beings; like us.

So here's the question. Is there any chance at all, that we could still

raise a hand, not in anger but in greeting? Depends on who raises his

hand first, some of us would say. Also how, whisper a few others.

But mostly, it all boils down to one simple question. Why? Why

must we do it? Why do we need them? Why don't they first say

sorry for what they've done? And the answer is simple. It's easier to

say Hi than to say Sorry. It's shorter too. Besides, there is no rule

that says a book has to be closed before a new one is opened. Not

even if it's a history book. So on the first day of this new year, we're

going to make a start. Again. With Aman Ki Asha. A brave, new

people-to-people initiative by the Times of India and Pakistan's Jang

Group to bring the people of two fine nations closer together.

Culturally, emotionally and peacefully.”


ISSRA Papers 201096

Starting with a series of cross-border cultural interactions, business

seminars, music and literary festivals and citizens meet that will give

the bonds of humanity a chance to survive outside the battlefields of

politics, terrorism and fundamentalism. In the hope that one day,

words like Pakistan, India and Love will not seem impossible in the

same sentence. Similarly, on January 3, Pakistan Foreign Office

Spokesperson said, while welcoming the setting up of “Amn Ki

Asha” that Pakistan would support any effort that brought peace in

the region. He said: “We strongly believe in having a lasting peace

with India. We want our bilateral relations to be normalized so that

South Asia could live in peace and prosperity20. Lauding “Aman Ki

Asha” programme, Chairman All Parties Hurriyat Conference

Jammu and Kashmir Mirwaiz Omar Farooq said that it (Aman Ki

Asha) provides a recipe for the resolution of the long-standing

Kashmir conflict. Explore more avenues for the settlement of

contentious issues following the launch of “Aman Ki Asha” he

added. He further said that the Kahmiris may play their important

role for the success of this programme because they need it the

most21. Commenting on “Aman Ki Asha”, Jaideep Bose, a

prominent Indian said that over the past few months, The Times of

India have had the privilege of meeting some very fine people at the

Jang Group, and they made some wonderful friends there. They look

forward to deepening this relationship in the months and years to

come — and spreading the goodwill beyond the confines of our

newspapers and TV channels, he added. He went on to say while

quoting the words of John Lennon’s peace anthem, Imagine? “You

Muhammad Akram


may say I’m a dreamer/But I’m not the only one/I hope someday

you’ll join us...” He maintained that they’d like to believe there are

many more ‘dreamers’ like them out there — and that their dream of

India and Pakistan living in harmony will come true22. Students of

St. Peter’s High School, Toba Tek Singh in Pakistan, joined Aman

Ki Asha to promote peace between India and Pakistan. The school

organized a programme titled ‘Aman Mein Mera Hissa’ (my

contribution to peace). Sixty students, including boys and girls, were

given white handkerchiefs and they carved the messages of peace

for Indian students. The students also carved various peace symbols,

quotations, prayers and wishes on the handkerchiefs. The messages

that attracted people from various walks of life were: ‘May peace be

in India’, ‘May peace be in Pakistan’, ‘Please ask your government

to ensure water supply for Pakistani rivers’, ‘No to arms’, ‘Yes to

progress’, ‘India and Pakistan should work together to end

terrorism’, ‘Peace is like a river flowing through you and me’, I love

Pakistan and India’, ‘Let us make our paradise -- Kashmir -- a safe

heaven’, ‘Let us press our governments to ease traveling between

the people of two countries’, ‘Yes to peace’ and ‘No to war’23.

Similarly, Indian film industry, the Bollywood, is also stressing the

need of friendship and cordial relationship between Pakistan and

India through its movies like “Main Hun Naa.”

Conclusion and Recommendations

Nothing stops Pakistani people from meeting Indian people

like the national frontier, and nothing destroys the national frontier

like free trade, people to people contact and easing of tensions


ISSRA Papers 201098

between both the countries. The time has come when both the

nations would have to set aside their differences for the sake of

prosperity and security of their people. No nation can think positive

without having peace of mind. This can be achieved through many

ways like government to government better understanding.

However, this thing can take much time as their might be some

reservations on both sides. But, the people living on both sides of

the border can be persuaded and convinced to put pressure on their

respective governments to show some sense. This objective can be

achieved through massive use of media campaigns to form public

opinion in this direction. Three are so many things which should be

highlighted through media that can bring ease among the people of

South Asia. For example, Sikh community, living on other side of

the border and the world over, has its most sacred places in Pakistan,

which is respected both by the Muslims and the Sikhs as well.

Similarly, we have a hill named Eelam in Swat where according to

Hindu mythology their Prophet Ram Chandra Jee spent fourteen

years of his exile. It was on Eelam where Ram Chandra Jee’s wife,

Seeta gave birth to three sons i.e. Peshu Roy, Kishu Roy and Lahu

Roy on whose names the cities of Peshawar, Kasur and Lahore were

later on, established.24 The same is the case with Buddhism. The

second most important personality of this religion after Buddha,

Padama Sambawa was born at Gonyar village of Malakand Agency.

From there he went to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet to promote this

religion.25 The Media should project this mutual harmony through

programmes, talk-shows, films and documentaries. Similarly,

Muhammad Akram


Punjabi language is widely spoken and understood on both sides of

the border and can also play a pivotal role in promoting peace and

harmony between the two neighbours. Here I want to quote some

verses of a Punjabi poet from Indian Punjab carrying message of

love and cooperation. He says:

Wahgay Diay Sarhaday Ni

Tenu Tatti Wa Na Laggay Ni

Laggan Phull Gulab De

Tery Dohaan Passay Ariay Wassan Putt Punjab De

Bumb Aidar Diggay Yaan Odhar

Honi Bari Kharabi Ni

Dohaan Passay Marnay Putt Punjabi Ni

(O border of Wahga, I wish that you may not come across

any problem even the hot wind. Sons of Punjab glitter like red roses

on both sides of proud Wahgah border. War will kill Punjabis living

on both sides of the border.)

Media should also pay homage to common heroes of

freedom like Bhagat Singh, as it is our joint legacy. Likewise,

religious tourism can be promoted between Islamabad and New

Delhi. Hindus also have their sacred temples in Pakistan.

Urdu and Hindi – national languages of Pakistan and India,

respectively, virtually sound similar, becoming understandable for

people of the two countries; though there are written differently.

This can help bridge communication gap between the two nations.


ISSRA Papers 2010100

The Muslim saints buried in India have great respect and honour

among Muslims in Pakistan, which can also be highlighted aptly in

media.

The interdependence of both the countries in terms of import

and export could ease the burden upon them. Similarly due

importance of international projects like Iran-Pakistan-India gas

pipeline and India’s strong desire of access to the Central Asian

states via Pakistan can also help peace-process.

The recent marriage of top athletes of India and Pakistan in

the positive perspective and jubilation expressed at the public at

large in this regard in both electronic and print media can also press

the two sides for the promotion of peace. By giving special

treatment to the increased poverty, due to rising defence expenditure

of Pakistan and India, in the media, peace efforts can be resumed

and expedited. Furthermore, common people should be made aware

through massive and positive use of that terrorist groups operating in

Pakistan and India are taking advantage of the Indo-Pak rivalry and

causing more and more complications and problems in the relations

of the two countries.

So, if this point is projected at the international level through

all means including media, these two sides could be brought to the

negotiating table. It may be added here that hatred between Muslims

and Hindus had been orchestrated by the imperial British. For

instance, how they have been promoting Hindu-Muslim hatred is

evident from the fact that incidents of wild boars or pigs in mosques

and throwing the heads of cows in Hindu temples before the

Muhammad Akram


partition of united India that led to widespread communal riots. At

the time of partition, there are hundreds of examples in which

Muslims and Hindus rescued people of each other’s faith. In this

way, media can prove the fact that Indo-Pak rivalry is considerably

artificial. Besides, survey reports artistically projected in the

electronic and the print media about Pakistan’s poetry gaining

popularity in terms of Indian songs and music in Pakistan could also

help the peace process.

Notes

1 Commodore Asif Humayon, “Media as an instrument of strategy”, NDC Journal2000, p.972 Ibid. p.105.3 Ibid.p.121.4 Mirza Jan, “Political Terrorism under the Flag of Media”, South Asian Studies,

Vol. 24, (January 2009): p.455 Muhammad Aslam, Don Freeman, Sajida Iqbal and Shahid Mehmud, “Media-

The Emerging Strategic Force” Group Research Paper, National Defence Course( 2002-2003): p. 103

6 Ershad Mehmud, “Pak-India Peace Process: An Appraisal”, Policy Perspectives(July 2007):Vol. 4, No.2, p.1.

7 KS Manjunath, Seema Sridhar & Beryl Anand”, Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue 2004-05”, IPCS Special Report 12, (February 2006) a profile, p.110.

8 Ibid. p.115.9 Shahid Nadeem, “Pakistan and India Dreams for Peace”, (Lahore: Book Home, 2004), P.105.10 Ibid.p.107.11 Alf Skjeseth, Masood Hayat and Cyril Raphael, “Journalists as power

brokers”, Review of the South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA) and the Free Media Foundation (FMF), (August 2006), p.4.

12 Ibid.p.5.13 Ibid. p.6.14 Ibid. p.8.15 Pakistan-India Peace Process (2008-2009), Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, IPRI

Factfile, p.46.16 Ershad Mehmud, “Pak-India Peace Process: an Appraisal”, Policy

Perspectives, (July 2007). Vol. 4, No.2, p.9.17 BBC, November 27, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7751160.stm


ISSRA Papers 2010102

18 http://rightnreal.com/aman-ki-asha-indo-pak-friendship-forum/19 “Love Pakistan”, The Times of India, 1January 2010.20 Mariana Baabar, “FO wishes godspeed to Aman Ki Asha”, The News, January 4, 2010.21 “Kashmir settlement to provide ‘Aman Ki Asha: Mir Waiz”, The News, January 3, 2010.22 “Peace with Pakistan: Give Tomorrow A Chance: Jaideep Bose”, The Times of India January 1, 2010.23 :Aman Mein Mera Hissa: Students inscribed peace messages on handkerchiefs”,

The News, May 18, 2010. 24 This was revealed by Lutfur Rehman (NDU Research Scholar) during a conversation. 25 Ibid.

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