LATEST TRENDS In addition to the persistence of weak consumer demand in many key European markets, the Russian import bans for a number of key producing countries resulting from political unrest in Eastern Europe, means that entire sectors must now engage in a concerted effort to identify and develop alternative markets for significant volumes of their production. The success of these efforts has so far been mixed, and the markets are still uncertain regarding the future impact of the ban. Some major exporters affected by the ban, such as Norway, have managed to actually increase their seafood export volumes despite the traditional importance of Russia as a destination for many key species. In general, it is the markets that are highly globalized which are those where a reshuffling of the trading partners is likely to mitigate the effects of the ban, as non- banned producing countries step in to replace the supply gap left by their competitors and the latter are then able to focus their attentions on the resulting shortfalls in relatively more accessible markets. For those countries not targeted by the import restrictions, the situation has thus created new opportunities, especially for salmon, trout and small pelagics. As a result of the upheaval, however, the overall short-term outlook for prices is not positive, though some upward movement can be expected at the end of the year because of cyclical demand swings. Issue 09/2014 September 2014 INDEX FOR PRICES Groundfish 11 Flatfish 12 Tuna 12 Small Pelagics 13 Cephalopods 13 Crustaceans 14 Bivalves 15 Salmon 16 Trout 16 Freshwater fish 16 Non Traditional Species 16 Seabass-Seabream- Meagre 17 The European Fish Price Report, based on information supplied by industry correspondents, aims to provide guidance on broad price trends. Price information is indicative and should be used only for forecasting medium- and long-term trends. FAO is not responsible for any errors or omissions.
Transcript
LATEST TRENDS
In addition to the persistence of weak consumer demand in many key European markets, the Russian import bans for a number of key producing countries resulting from political unrest in Eastern
Europe, means that entire sectors must now engage in a concerted effort to identify and develop alternative markets for significant
volumes of their production. The success of these efforts has so far been mixed, and the markets are still uncertain regarding the future impact of the ban. Some major exporters affected by the ban, such
as Norway, have managed to actually increase their seafood export volumes despite the traditional importance of Russia as a
destination for many key species. In general, it is the markets that are highly globalized which are those where a reshuffling of the
trading partners is likely to mitigate the effects of the ban, as non-banned producing countries step in to replace the supply gap left by their competitors and the latter are then able to focus their
attentions on the resulting shortfalls in relatively more accessible markets. For those countries not targeted by the import
restrictions, the situation has thus created new opportunities, especially for salmon, trout and small pelagics. As a result of the upheaval, however, the overall short-term outlook for prices is not
positive, though some upward movement can be expected at the end of the year because of cyclical demand swings.
Issue 09/2014 September 2014
INDEX FOR PRICES
Groundfish 11
Flatfish 12
Tuna 12
Small Pelagics 13
Cephalopods 13
Crustaceans 14
Bivalves 15
Salmon 16
Trout 16
Freshwater fish 16
Non Traditional
Species 16
Seabass-Seabream-
Meagre 17
The European Fish Price Report, based on information supplied by
industry correspondents, aims to provide guidance on broad price trends.
Price information is indicative and should be used only for forecasting
medium- and long-term trends. FAO is not responsible for any errors or omissions.
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WORLD SEAFOOD CONGRESS 2015
From 5-10 September next year, Seafish is hosting the World Seafood Congress
(WSC) 2015 in Grimsby. The event is presented by the International Association of Fish Inspectors (IAFI) and co-organised by the Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). The IAFI WSC brings together a global audience of fish inspectors, government, the seafood processing industries, academia, public and private organizations to provide the
following opportunities:
• Exchange information, ideas and methodologies for fish, seafood and associated products, inspection, quality management and fish/seafood technology; • Foster interaction, understanding and professional collaboration among
individuals, organisations and governments for the purpose of facilitating the global export and import of fish, seafood and associated products and their consumption;
• Contribute to discussions and analysis of current fish/seafood inspection and control systems, regulatory regimes and seafood processing infrastructure and suggest ways and means to improve product quality and safety inspection and
mitigate risk of seafood origin consumer illness. • Disseminate knowledge about fish, seafood and associated products inspection
and methodologies; encourage development of global fish, seafood and associated product standards and new inspection systems, methodologies and technologies; • Promote advancement of the state of the art in research and education on
fish/seafood inspection and control systems and risk analysis and their integration into everyday life;
• Provide services to its members to assist them in developing their careers as fish/seafood inspectors; • Provide fish, seafood and associated product inspection, quality management
and fish/seafood processing technology consultative, inspection and audit services to individuals and organisations.
GROUNDFISH
According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, the value of Norwegian cod exports in August was NOK 824 million, a 9% increase of NOK 67 million compared with last
August. The exported volume, however, fell by 4%.
Meanwhile, the total value of Norwegian frozen fish exports in August was NOK 322 million, NOK 62 million more than August 2013. The price for whole
frozen cod was 21% higher on average in August. The greatest
growth was in exports to China, but the UK, Poland and Portugal have imported more whole frozen
cod this year to date than during the same period last year. The
volume of exports of frozen cod fillets in August totalled NOK 43.2 million, up by 12%.
The value of exports of Norwegian clipfish in August was NOK 298 million or 8 400
tonnes. This is an increase of NOK 25 million compared with August last year, but a slight drop in volume of 350 tonnes.
Prices of wet-salted cod fillets from frozen raw material (Gadus Macrocephalus) are increasing as firming demand associated with the consumption season pulls against
the lack of Russian raw material. Prices of wet-salted cod fillets (Gadus Morhua) from fresh raw material both in the Faroe Islands and in Iceland are also increasing. This is
due to strong demand for fresh raw material from fresh fish traders and producers of frozen cod products. In general, demand for fresh and frozen cod, mainly shipped to Spain, France, the UK and the USA, is growing.
Meanwhile, surimi prices are increasing in line with the strengthening USD.
FLATFISH
Good demand in August pushed turbot prices upwards. The
continuing scarcity of larger fish is also contributing to the upward price
trend for those sizes.
TUNA/BILLFISHES
Well-stocked canneries, weak demand and moderate-to-good
fishing in the Western and Central Pacific has reversed last
month’s upward trend and skipjack prices have dropped to USD 1 550-1 600/tonne CFR Bangkok. Prices
are also down for Ecuadorian skipjack, currently trading at USD
1 700/tonne and expected to drop further.
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Skipjack Bangkok CFR
Skipjack Ecuador, ex-vessel
USD/kg
Tuna - Pacific Ocean
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Skipjack, Seychelles, FOB
Yellowfin, Seychelles, FOB
Skipjack, Abidjan ex-vessel
Yellowfin, Abidjan, > 10 kg, ex-vessel
EUR/kg
Tuna - Indian/Atlantic Oceans
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8.30
2.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.00S
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Skipjack - frozen cooked loins, single cleaned, Spain/Italy DDP
moderate, with the cold equatorial waters making it more difficult for
the vessels not applying the ban to find fish. The first IATTC Veda
closure period, applied to 40% of the fleet, began July 29 and runs through to September 28. In
contrast to skipjack, yellowfin prices have risen to USD 2
600/tonne ex vessel Manta. Low demand for finished product
amongst European customers is a source of concern for the industry
in Ecuador, particularly looking ahead to 2015 sales in Europe, when tariff preferences will no
longer apply to Ecuadorian-origin imports.
Vessels in the Atlantic Ocean have reported moderate-to-good
fishing, with about two-thirds of the catch being skipjack. Local
canneries are better stocked compared with previous months. Skipjack and yellowfin prices have
fallen to EUR 1 250 and EUR 2 250/tonne ex vessel Abidjan,
respectively. Fishing in the Indian Ocean
remains steady. Most vessels are operating on FADs and catching
mostly skipjack. Local canneries are adequately covered. The
skipjack price has dropped to EUR 1 150/tonne FOB Mahe level and the yellowfin price to EUR 2 000/tonne.
With sufficient supplies from the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, both skipjack and
yellowfin prices in the European markets have fallen to EUR 1 300/tonne and EUR 2 300/tonne CFR Spain level respectively. The market price for cooked, double cleaned yellowfin loins remains at USD 8 300/tonne DDP Italy.
SMALL PELAGICS
According to the Holtermann report, the Icelandic mackerel fishery is basically over
with 136 627 tonnes reported landed against the 154 100 tonne Icelandic quota (the balance seems reserved for by-catch). The vessels are now switching to Atlanto
Scandian herring, but there are reports of some mixed mackerel and herring catches at the moment. The herring total is currently at 10 092 tonnes.
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Although it does not affect Iceland directly, there are some uncertainties on the impact of the Russian import ban on trade in fishery products from Norway/EU and how this
will affect fishing efforts and landings for human consumption vs. meal/oil. Producers are thus holding back somewhat until they have a more clear picture on this. The same
can also be said for several of the main buyers.
The Norwegian mackerel fishery gained pace last weekend and the total catch is now
at 58 402 tonnes against the 278 868 tonne quota. In addition, there were a few Norwegian vessels sailing for the fishing grounds west of Denmark after reports of good
North Sea sprat catches from the Danish vessels. The Norwegian quota for North Sea sprats is at 9 000 tonnes and the catch has already reached 3 700 tonnes.
Additional stocks of 300-500 size mackerel from the UK are available as a result of the Ukraine crisis and cancelled orders. With the new season approaching, fishers and
traders are looking to clear these extra volumes as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, in Greenland and the Faroe Islands, following good food availability for
mackerel stocks during the early season, large quantities of H&G mackerel are being exported at stable prices, boosted by these countries’ exclusion from the Russian ban.
Catches in the Danish sprat fisheries continue at a steady pace with the total so far this year standing at approximately 148 926 tonnes. There is not much activity in the
Scandinavian market where both sellers and buyers seem to be in wait-and-see mode. Prices, however, are slightly softer with limited volumes traded in Denmark at around
DKK 10 750 FOB for 72% standard fishmeal.
The capelin biomass re-assessments usually commence around New Year, but this
week it emerged that the Icelandic Marine Research Institute had been granted funds for an additional capelin survey already this autumn. The preliminary advice from ICES
based on available data this spring was for a 225 000 tonnes starting quota which corresponds to 50% of the calculated 450 000 tonne TAC (precautionary approach). Currently production of meal and oil in Iceland is limited.
CEPHALOPODS
In South Africa, squid catches
have slowed to a crawl again. Weather conditions are suitable, but the squid are simply not being
landed. This situation is of great concern to the industry and boat
owners in particular, who are facing increasing operating costs. As a result of the drop in supplies,
prices remain firm on the main European markets, Spain and Italy.
CRUSTACEANS
Fall season has started in the USA and Canada. Demand for live lobster from Asia is
good but catches are relatively poor, with high prices resulting. Meanwhile, there is still stock available in Canada from the last spring season of commodity products such
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Squid - In Italy, origin: South Africa
Squid - Whole, FAS, size MEUR/kg
6
2.20
1.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00
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400-600 - 600-800 kg/pcEUR/kg
Crab (Cancer pagurus), origin: France
as popsicle lobster. The price for popsicles up to 400g currently stands at around CAD
16/kg CIF Europe while from 450g and up it varies between CAD 17 and 17.50/kg CIF.
On the European market, declining crab prices have stabilised as it is now the optimal
consumption season and demand from cooking factories is rising. Demand for European lobster is also increasing as the summer holiday season comes to an end and urban market demand returns.
Shrimp
The European market for shrimp is somewhat stagnant currently,
but there will be more activity from now on as buyers build up
supplies for Christmas. Vannamei prices, after falling from April to
June, began to rise again in late June. This trend is expected to continue until at least October. In
November and December, however, with the arrival of the
second harvest and reduced buying activity, prices will likely turn downwards once again. The price level for the last few months of 2014, based on
developments so far, is estimated to be around USD 0.50/Kg below 2013 prices. Infofish reports that EU shrimp imports from non-EU origins for the first five months
of the year were 30% more than the same period last year. Supplies increased from
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400-600/600-800 gr/pcEUR/kg
European Lobster, in Europe, origin Ireland
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2.004.006.008.00
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Norway Lobster - in Spain, origin: Iceland
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Whiteleg shrimp - Penaeus vannamei Head-on, shell-on, In Spain, origin: Central America
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the top four exporters, Ecuador (+63%), India (+90%), Vietnam (+72%) and Bangladesh (+30%).
Meanwhile, the USA has increased its imports in the first six months
of 2014 by more than 11%. Indonesia, Ecuador, India and Vietnam are the main suppliers. In
Asia, Korea and Taiwan are increasing consumption, while
Japan remains one of the major markets but has seen a decline in imports mainly due to the rising
price of shrimp and a weak Yen.
Chinese production for 2014 is not anticipated to be good as EMS problems are compounded by the Rammusen typhoon that hit the Southern provinces. The shortfall in domestic production is being made up to some extent by increased imports
volumes. Thailand is also producing much less than in 2013 and the outlook is not positive. In contrast, sources suggest Viet Nam, India, Indonesia and Ecuador
have increased their production levels in 2014. Viet Nam is also importing substantial volumes for processing and re-export from India in particular.
In August, the opening of new fishing areas and better weather
for the month of July has lead to an increase in Argentina red shrimp captures in Argentinian
waters, and the total capture volume so far this year is similar to
what was a record figure recorded in 2013. Despite the increase in supply, stronger Asian demand,
especially from China (particularly large sizes 10/20 and 20/30) and
also Japan from August onwards (more focused on Size 30/40 and 40/60), kept prices at stable levels and even
allowed for slight increases. Consumption in Europe, especially in the core market of Spain, is also showing signs of recovery and maintaining price levels in anticipation of the arrival of the Christmas season.
BIVALVES
Both French and Dutch mytilus edulis mussels are relatively
plentiful on the French market at the end of August, although the Bouchot
season’s production may be tight due to pre-summer mortalities in the west of France.
Availability of mytilus
galloprovincialis on the French
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> 10-20 pc/kg
> 20-30
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> 40-60
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Argentina Red Shrimp - Pleoticus muelleri Head-on, shell-on, In Spain, origin: Argentina
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Black Tiger - In Europe, origin: Bangladesh
Bangladesh BT, HL16/20, c&fUSD/kg
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Live - No. 3EUR/kg
Oyster - Crassostrea gigas, production price, origin: Ireland/France
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4.03
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Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norway
Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-6 kg/pc
EUR/kg
market is now reduced due to the return of the French & Dutch edulis season, but
Spanish galloprovencialis can still be found in some outlets at lower prices.
Oyster prices remain strong due to decreased supply. At retail level prices appear
reasonably stable in order to contain potential consumer backlash.
SALMON
Following Russia’s ban on imports
of food products from western
countries, Russia-destined
Atlantic salmon exports from
Norway dropped in volume by
some 80% in August compared
with August 2013. In anticipation
of the impact of the ban, the
Norwegian industry set aside extra
funding for the specific purpose of
shifting extra volumes to
alternative markets, while
regulators approved a 6% increase
in the maximum allowable biomass (MAB) per farming license in order to create a
short-term buffer on the supply side of the market. These proactive measures appear
to have had the desired effect, with total Norwegian export volumes up substantially
in August compared with the same month 2014, and prices being maintained at
reasonable levels despite some softening. According to the Norwegian Seafood
Council, Norway exported around 85 000 tonnes of Atlantic salmon worth NOK 3.6
billion in August, registering increases in volumes to the EU, Asia and the USA which
compensated for the drop in exports to Russia.
The increased MAB will likely see relatively more fish available in early 2015 than
previous years, as harvesting that traditionally takes place in the 3rd quarter will be
delayed to some extent. This has affected the market price expectations, and forward
prices for next year are down somewhat compared with forecasts earlier in the year.
Overall, however, the price outlook for next year is still positive, with analysts
predicting only ~3% growth in global salmon supply in contrast to ~8% growth in
2014.
TROUT
Norwegian trout exports have
been relatively more affected by
the Russian ban than salmon, with
export volumes in August down
28% compared with the same
month last year despite a
government-approved increase of
20% in the MAB per farming
license. Belarus and Poland both
absorbed some of the excess
volume available, but export prices
fell by 8% compared with August
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Trout - Fresh, live, farmed - ex-farm prices in Italy
last year. In Italy, however, trout prices were up at the end of August, with the
possibility of further increases by the end of 2014.
FRESHWATER FISH
In Hungary, prices higher up the supply chain for common carp slices and fillets have risen, but retail prices remain the same as sale campaigns for these products have been launched. For tilapia, heavy rains in China have seen an upward price trend develop, while
prices for Vietnamese pangasius are also rising. Nile perch prices are being kept up by low catches in Lake Victoria.
SEABASS/SEABREAM/MEAGRE
The 2014 report of the Federation
of European Aquaculture Producers (FEAP), released in late August, estimates that overall production
of bass juveniles in Europe was down 8% in 2013 while the
decrease for bream was around 2.5%. The most significant drop was in Turkey, with a slight
increase registered in Greece. The net result, however, will be a
tightening of supply over the next couple of years, and in fact
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Seabass and Seabream - In Italy, origin: Greece
Seabass fresh whole 300-450 gr/pc
Seabream fresh whole 300-450 gr/pcEUR/kg
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analysts predict a small drop in total harvest volumes for 2014 and 2015 compared
with last year. This contraction appears to already have had an effect on prices in 2014, which are up in year-to-date terms compared with 2013 for both Turkey and
Greece, despite some seasonal weakening over the summer.
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Meagre - In Italy, origin: Egypt 1000-2000 gr/pc fresh whole
All rights reserved. No part of FAO/GLOBEFISH European Fish Price Report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means
(electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise), without prior permission. Requests for use of this material (including purpose and extent) should be addressed to:
GLOBEFISH - Fisheries and Aquaculture Department - Food and Agriculture Organization, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy.
The European Fish Price Report is a monthly GLOBEFISH publication,
prepared by Karine Boisset, Felix Dent and Audun Lem
