Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Issues Facing
Future Energy Systems
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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US Energy Flow – 2016
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Long-term view of fossil fuel production for years AD 0-3000
with projection for “robust” world fossil fuel scenario for years AD 1800-2500
Assumptions: EUR of 500,000 EJ for all types of fossil fuels
Projection of “long-term fossil fuel availability” scenario
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Goals for Future Energy
1. Manageable natural resource use
a. Resource extraction: fossil fuels, uranium
b. Land consumption: solar, wind
2. Minimize pollution: air, water, solid waste
3. Stabilize concentration of carbon in atmosphere
4. Reduce security threat due to energy dependency
Recommended reading:
Hoffert, M I et al (2002) “Advanced technology paths to global climate stability:
energy for a greenhouse planet” Science v298, pp.981-987.
Other readings?
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Current vs. Future Power Requirement
Today Power Generation totals about 12 TW
and is about 85% fossil fueled.
Mid-century projections are that we must have
15-30 TW capacity and must stabilize the
atmosphere at 350 – 550 ppmv CO2 Emission Free Sources
Carbon Sequestration
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Main options / main obstacle
1. Fossil energy (w/ sequestration)
obstacles?
2. Nuclear energy
obstacles?
3. Renewables
obstacles?
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Main options / main obstacle
Fossil energy Limit supply
Environmental impact of mining
Geographical distribution (some nations have
it, some don’t)
Inefficient combustion
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Main options / main obstacle
Nuclear energy Waste disposal/storage
Public perception
Water use
Access to and enrichment of fuel
Capital cost of construction
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Main options / main obstacle
Renewables Location (the sunshine and wind)
Non-dispatchable
Investment
Lower density
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Scenarios for CO2 Stabilization
Scenarios: 350, 450, 550, 650, 750 ppmv
Economic growth 2-3% per year
Sustained decline of 1%/year in energy intensity (energy use / gdp)
Current concentration ~370 ppmv (preindustrial ~260 ppmv)
Holding at 550 ppmv is a major challenge
Cuts to 450 or 350 ppmv are “Herculean”
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Geological CO2 Storage
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Carbon-free Energy from Fossil Fuels
Goal: 10-30 TW emission free capacity in 50 years
Unfortunately coal is more abundant than oil & gas
Opportunity: CO2 capture and sequestration:
Coal >> reformer >> H2 + CO2
CO2 is then sequestered
Decarbonization of coal is linked to sequestration
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Nuclear energy:
Proposed Tokamak Fusion Reactor
Courtesy of ITER Organization
• Begun in 2007
• Controlled nuclear fusion
• Traps heavy isotopes of hydrogen
in a doughnut-shaped vacuum
vessel known as a tokamak and
heat them up to 150 million °C.
• Fusion of hydrogen nuclei into
helium releases vast amounts of
energy.
• Tokamaks have existed for decades
• ITER would be first to release
substantially more energy than was put
into the hydrogen plasma.
• It is predicted to produce about 500
megawatts of electrical power.
• More than a decade behind schedule
• US support through 2018, uncertain
thereafter.
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Large-Scale PV Installations
Bavaria Solarpark
Muehlhausen, Germany, 10 MW
World’s largest in 2005
Topaz Solar Farm, 550 MW
San Luis Obispo County, CA
Largest as of November 2015
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Options for CO2-free Renewable Energy
Options: biomass, solar thermal, PV, wind, hydropower, ocean thermal, geothermal, tidal Firewood and large-scale hydro: close to saturation
Rest are presently <1% of total global power capacity
Problem: Renewables have low areal power density Biomass: ~0.6 W/m2
10 TW of Bio power requires cultivating ~ 10% of earth’s surface, which is comparable to today’s acreage supporting all human agriculture
PV & Wind energy ~ 15 W/m2 Much better but requires more “technology turnover”
Renewable Energy sources are intermittent & dispersed Requires storage or backup capacity
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Solving the Problem by
Improving Efficiency?
Some examples:
Electric generators 98-99% efficient
Electric motors 90-97% efficient
Heat engines (35-50% efficient, 2nd law applies to steam, gas)
Diesel engine 30-35%, gasoline engine 15-25%
Fuel cells 50-55% now, perhaps 70% later; H2 reformers ~ 80%
Renewables: PV: 15 to 20%; Wind turbines 30-40%
Lighting: Fluorescent lights 10-12%; Incandescent light 2-5%
Problem: many technologies either already near max efficiency, or
have limits, so efficiency alone cannot solve the problem completely
Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.
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Conclusions
Current major energy sources are in finite supply and/or emit CO2 to atmosphere
Carbon-free, long-term alternatives are under development