+ All Categories
Home > Documents > ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap...

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap...

Date post: 27-Mar-2015
Category:
Upload: irea-cochran
View: 221 times
Download: 2 times
Share this document with a friend
Popular Tags:
20
ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models Status [Including 2Q06 SIA/SICAS* Industry Technology Capacity Demand Analysis] For Public 12/04/06 Conference Ambassador Hotel - Hsin Chu, Taiwan (Draft Rev 2, 11/20/06 – corrections foils #10,11) emiconductor Industry Association / Semiconductor Industry Capacity Statistics
Transcript
Page 1: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models Status[Including 2Q06 SIA/SICAS* Industry Technology Capacity Demand Analysis]

For Public 12/04/06 Conference Ambassador Hotel - Hsin Chu, Taiwan

(Draft Rev 2, 11/20/06 – corrections foils #10,11)* Semiconductor Industry Association / Semiconductor Industry Capacity Statistics

Page 2: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 2

Moore’s Law & MoreMore than Moore: Diversification

Mo

re M

oo

re:

Min

iatu

riza

tio

nM

ore

Mo

ore

: M

inia

turi

zati

on

Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value SystemsBas

eli

ne

CM

OS

: C

PU

, M

emo

ry,

Lo

gic

BiochipsSensors

ActuatorsHV

PowerAnalog/RF Passives

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm...V

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm...V

Information Processing

Digital contentSystem-on-chip

(SoC)

Interacting with people and environment

Non-digital contentSystem-in-package

(SiP)

Beyond CMOS

2005 ITRS Executive Summary Fig 5

Traditional ORTC Models

Source: 2005 ITRS Document online at: http://www.itrs.net/Links/2005ITRS/Home2005.htm

Page 3: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 3

ORTC Overview – 2006 Update ITRS - Unchanged• One standard TWG table technology trend header

– 2006 ITRS Update tables continue to use DRAM stagger-contacted M1 as typical industry lithography driver

– Transitioned to product-oriented technology trend drivers and cycles*• ORTC Table 1a,b - MPU/ASIC M1 Half-Pitch Trend

– Stagger-contacted, same as DRAM– 2.5-year Technology Cycle* (.5x/5yrs) – 180nm/2000; 90nm/2005; 45nm/2010(equal DRAM)– Then continue on a 3-year Technology Cycle*, equal to DRAM 2010-2020

• ORTC Table 1a,b - STRJ Flash Poly (Un-contacted dense lines)– 2-year Technology Cycle* (0.5x/4yrs)– 180nm/2000; 130nm/2002; 90nm/2004; 65nm/2006– Then 3-year Technology Cycle* 1 year ahead of DRAM ’06-’20

• ORTC Table 1a,b – MPU/ASIC Printed Gate Length per FEP and Litho TWG ratio relationship to Final Physical Gate Length - 2005 ITRS targets (3-year cycle* after 2005)

• TWG table Product-specific technology trend driver header items are added to individual TWG tables from ORTC Table 1a&b

• Chip Size Models are connected to proposals and historical trends, incl. new Flash Model

– Function Size [Logic Gate; SRAM Cell; Dram Cell; Flash Cell (SLC, MLC)]– Functions/Chip [Flash; DRAM; High Performance (hp) MPU; Cost Perf. (cp) MPU]– Chip Size [hp MPU; cp MPU; DRAM; Flash]

*Note: Cycle = time to 0.5xlinear scaling every two

cycle periods ~ 0.71x/ cycle

Page 4: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 4

2005 Definition of the Half Pitch - unchanged[No single-product “node” designation; DRAM half-pitch still litho driver; however,

other product technology trends may be drivers on individual TWG tables]

Metal Pitch

Typical DRAM/MPU/ASIC Metal Bit Line

DRAM ½ Pitch = DRAM Metal Pitch/2

MPU/ASIC M1 ½ Pitch = MPU/ASIC M1 Pitch/2 Poly

Pitch

Typical flash Un-contacted Poly

FLASH Poly Silicon ½ Pitch = Flash Poly Pitch/2

8-16 Lines

Page 5: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 5

Production Ramp-up Model and Technology Cycle Timing

Vo

lum

e (P

arts

/Mo

nth

)

1K

10K

100K

Months0-24

1M

10M

100M

Alpha

Tool

12 24-12

Development Production

Beta

Tool

Production

Tool

First

Conf.

Papers

First Two Companies

Reaching Production

Vo

lum

e (W

afer

s/M

on

th)

2

20

200

2K

20K

200K

Source: 2005 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 3

Fig 3 Unchanged

Page 6: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 6

2005 ITRS Flash Poly Half-Pitch Technology: 2.0-year cycle until 1yr ahead of DRAM @65nm/’06

3-Year Technology Cycle2-Year Technology Cycle [’98-’06 ]

Year of Production

Technology -UncontactedPoly H-P (nm)

2003 20052001

65 223245 16

2008

20062002[Actual]

20042000[Actual]

90130180

76107151 5057 13

201520122009 2018

201620132010 2019 2020

2005 ITRS MPU M1 Half-Pitch Technology: 2.5-year cycle; then equal DRAM @45nm/2010

Year of Production

Technology- ContactedM1 H-P (nm)

157 136 119 103 78 68 59 52

201620132010 2019[July’08][July’02] 20052000

201820152012 2020

[130]180 [ 65]90 2232 1645

2008200620032001 2002 2004 2007 2009

2.5-Year Technology Cycle3-2-Yr Cycle] 3-Year Technology Cycle

14

2006 (’05-’20) ITRS Technology Trends DRAM M1 Half-Pitch : 3-year cycle

3-Year Technology Cycle2-Year Technology Cycle [‘98-’04]

Year of Production

Technology - ContactedM1 H-P (nm)

201820152012 2020

201620132010 2019

2003 20052001

65 223245 16

20082006 2009

20072002[Actual]

20042000[Actual]

90130180

80107151 71 57 50 14

All unchanged

Page 7: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 7

Figure 8 ITRS Product Technology Trends - unchangedFig 7&8 Simplified – Option 1

2005 ITRS Product Technology Trends - Half-Pitch, Gate-Length

1.0

10.0

100.0

1000.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year of Production

Pro

du

ct H

alf-

Pit

ch, G

ate-

Len

gth

(n

m)

DRAM M1 1/2 Pitch

MPU M1 1/2 Pitch(2.5-year cycle)

Flash Poly 1/2 Pitch

MPU Gate Length -Printed

MPUGate Length -Physical

MPU M1.71X/2.5YR

Nanotechnology (<100nm) Era Begins -1999

GLpr IS =1.6818 x GLph

2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

MPU & DRAM M1& Flash Poly

.71X/3YR

Flash Poly.71X/2YR

Gate Length.71X/3YR

Before 1998 .71X/3YR

After 1998.71X/2YR

Page 8: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 8

Fig 4 2005 ITRS Technology Cycle Timing Compared to Actual Wafer Production Technology Capacity Distribution

Fea

ture

Siz

e (H

alf

Pitc

h) (m

)

Year

0.01

0.1

1

10Source: SICAS**W.P.C.= Total Worldwide Wafer Production Capacity   (Relative Value *)

* Note: The wafer production capacity data are plotted from the SICAS* 4Q data for each year, except 2Q data for 2005.  The area of each of the production capacity bars corresponds to the relative share of the Total MOS IC production start silicon area for that range of the feature size (y-axis). Data is based upon capacity if fully utilized.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200620052004 2007Source: 2005 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 4

W.P.CW.P.CW.P.CW.P.CW.P.CW.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C >0.7m

0.7-0.4m

0.4-0.3m

0.3- 0.2m

0.2- 0.16m

<0.12m

0.16-.12m

<0.

4m

<0.

4m

<0.

3m

<0.

3m

<0.

2m

<0.

2m

<0.

16m

<0.

16m

<0.

12m

(Fea

ture

Siz

e o

f R

epo

rted

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Cap

acit

y o

f S

ICA

S P

arti

cip

ants

)

3-Year Cycle 3-Year Cycle2-Year Cycle

= 2003/04 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Actual = 2005 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target

** Source: The data for the graphical analysis were supplied by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) from their Semiconductor Industry Capacity Statistics (SICAS). The SICAS data is collected from worldwide semiconductor manufacturers (estimated >90% of Total MOS Capacity) and published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), as of July, 2005. The detailed data are available to the public online at the SIA website, http://www.sia-online.org/pre_stat.cfm .

SIA/SICAS Data**: 1-yr 

delay from ITRS Cycle Timing

to 25% of MOS IC Capacity

127nm

180nm

255nm

360nm

510nm

720nm

90nm

ITRSTechnology

Cycle

Page 9: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 9

MOS Capacity by Dimensions

0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0

1000.01200.01400.01600.01800.0

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

WSp

W x

1000

>=0.7µ

<0.7µ >=0.4µ

<0.4µ >=0.3µ

<0.3µ >=0.2µ

<0.2µ >=0.16µ

<0.16µ

<0.16µ >=0.12µ

<0.12µ

2-yrs to >20% of Total MOS for 0.71x Technology Reduction Cycle

SICAS 90nm Capacity Tracking Kickoff – 2Q06 Update

Source: SIA/SICAS Report: www.sia-online.org/pre_statistics.cfm

~32% of Total MOS

0.30 to 0.25u to.21u

0.42 to 0.36u to.30u

0.60 to 0.51u to.42u

0.85 to 0.72u to.60u

0.11 to 0.090u to 0.075un

0.15 to 0.13u to.11un-1

0.21 to 0.18u to.15un-2

Next TBD?:20%

1Q07?(2yr Cycle)

1Q08?3yr Cycle

<0.075 to 0.065u to.053u

n+1 [available 2Q07]

0.71x

Technology Demand2-year Cycle

Continues!

Page 10: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 10

1Q

0719972007

MOS Capacity by Wafer-size

0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0

1000.01200.01400.01600.01800.0

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

WSpW

x100

0(8

inch e

quiva

lents) < 200mm

200mm

300mm

SICAS 300m Capacity Tracking – 2Q06 Update

300mm/1Q04(3yrs after Intro)

200mm/1Q97SICAS Tracking Begins

(7yrs after Intro)

11 years intro-introWafer Generation

Source: SIA/SICAS Report: www.sia-online.org

2004 –Happy

10th Anniv.SICAS!

11.6%CAGR

2005 20062003 2004 2005 2006

2Q06: 300mm = 25% of Total MOS200mm = 62% of Total MOS

<200mm = 14% of Total MOS

12.0%YoY

93.1%YoY

1Q

97

4Q

971997

Waf

er S

tart

s

p

er W

eek

(1K

)

362.7[44%]

821.4[100%]

277.4[38%]

728.2[100%]

[Total MOS only – 8” Equivalent]

12.8%YoY

30.8%YoY

1Q97-1Q06Total MOS9.1% CAGR

1Q97-1Q06200mm

15.3% CAGR

17.4%Equiv. YoY

(3 Qtrs)

43.0%Equiv. YoY

(3 Qtrs)

Page 11: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 11

2005 ITRS Product Function Size Trends - Cell Size, Logic Gate(4t) Size

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year of Production

Cel

l, L

og

ic G

ate

Siz

e(u

m2

)

DRAM Cell Size (u2)

Flash Cell Size (u2)SLC(NEW)

Flash Eqv.bit Size(u2)MLC(NEW)

MPU SRAM Cell Size(6t)(u2)

MPU Gate Size (4t)(u2)

Note for Flash: SLC = Single-Level-Cell Size

MLC =Multi-Level-Cell

(Electrical Equivalent) Cell Size

2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

Figure 9 ITRS Product Function Size - unchangedFig xx Simplified

(@ 2 MLC bits/physical cell area)

Flash: 4f2 LastDesign Physical AreaFactor Improvement

DRAM: 6f2 LastDesign Area

Factor Improvement

Logic Gate: NODesign Area

Factor Improvement(Only Scaling)

SRAM: GradualDesign Area

Factor Improvement

Flash: (MLC @ 2 bits/cell =

2f2 EquivalentArea Factor)

Page 12: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 12

2005 ITRS Product Technology Trends Functions/Chip

1.E-06

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year of Production

Pro

duct

Fun

ctio

ns/C

hip

(Gig

a (1

0^9)

- b

its, t

rans

isto

rs )

Flash Bits/Chip (Gbits) Single-Level-Cell(SLC )

Flash Bits/Chip (Gbits) Multi-Level-Cell(MLC)

MPU GTransistors/Chip - high-performance(hp)

MPU GTransistors/Chip - cost-performanc(cp)

DRAM Bits/Chip (Gbits)

Average Industry "Moores Law"

Chip Size Trends – 2005 ITRS Functions/Chip Model - unchanged

Past Future2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

AverageIndustry 1970-2020

“Moore’s Law”2x Functions/chip

Per 2 years

(@Volume Production, Affordable Chip Size**)

** Affordable Production

Chip Size Targets:DRAM, Flash < 145mm2

hp MPU < 310mm2

cp MPU < 140mm2

** Example Chip Size Targets:1.1Gt P07h MPU

@ intro in 2004/620mm2

@ prod in 2007/310mm2

** Example Chip Size Targets:0.39Gt P07c MPU

@ intro in 2004/280mm2

@ prod in 2007/140mm2

MPU ahead or =“Moore’s Law”2x Xstors/chipPer 2 years Thru 2010

Page 13: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 13

2005 ITRS Product Technology Trends - Functions per Chip

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year of Production

Pro

du

ct F

un

ctio

ns/

Ch

ip[

Gig

a (1

0^9)

- b

its,

tra

nsi

sto

rs ]

Flash Bits/Chip (Gbits)Single-Level-Cell (SLC )

Flash Bits/Chip (Gbits)Multi-Level-Cell (MLC)

MPU GTransistors/Chip -high-performance (hp)

MPU GTransistors/Chip -cost-performanc (cp)

DRAM Bits/Chip (Gbits)

Average Industry "Moores Law"

2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

AverageIndustry 1970-2020

“Moore’s Law”2x Functions/chip

Per 2 years

Figure 10 ITRS Product Functions per Chip - unchanged

Page 14: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 14Past Future 2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

2005 Proposal ITRS DRAM Chip Size Model(Rev 1K, 06/23/05)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025

Year of Introduction and Production

(mm

2) DRAM Introduction Chip Size

Sawada Production Chip Size IS

4 chips per Litho Field @ 572mm2 = 143mm2

(22x6.5)

4G 8G 32G 64G16G

Bits/

chip: 128G64M

Bits/

chip:

256M

128G

1G 2G

4G

8G 32G 64G

16G

256G 1T

512M

Prod Cell Area Efficiency (CAE) = 63%-56%

Intro Cell Area Efficiency (CAE) = 73%-75%

90 64 45 22 1632 11 8

5 chips per Litho Field @ 704mm2 = 141mm2

(22x6.4)

WAS/IS: 128180255360

128M

32G

16G

4G

8G

2G

32G

16G

64G2G

8.0 6.011 8.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 6.06.0DRAM Des. 

Factor: 11 6.0 6.0

DRAM

Max Litho Field 2005 ITRS (4x) : 834mm2 (26x32)

2 C

hip

s p

er

Ma

x L

itho

Fie

ld 2

00

5

ITR

S (

4x)

: 4

17

m2

(2

6x

16

)2005:

Chip Size Trends – 2005 ITRS DRAM Model – unchanged

Page 15: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 15Past Future 2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

2005 Proposal ITRS Flash chip Size (NEW) Model (Allan)(Rev 1K, 06/23/05)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025

Year of Introduction and Production

(mm

2)

Flash SLC Production Chip Size

4 chips per Max Affordable Litho Field @

572mm2 = 143mm2 (22x6.5)

Flash Prod Cell Area Efficiency (CAE) = 67%

Flash Intro Cell Area Efficiency (CAE) =TBD -

no model

5 chips per Max Affordable Litho Field @

704mm2 = 141mm2 (22x6.4)

Flash

Bits/chip: 4G 8G 16G 32G 64G 128G256M 1G64M 2G

16 4.032 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.04.0 Flash SLC  

Des.Factor: 4.0 4.0

128180255360Flash:  90 64 45 22 1632 11 8WAS/IS: 128180255360

8.0 6.011 8.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 6.06.011 6.0 6.0

90 64 45 22 1632 11 8

DRAM  

HP

DRAM Des. 

Factor:

2005:Chip Size Trends – 2005 ITRS Flash Model - unchanged

Page 16: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 16

Past Future 2005 - 2020 ITRS Range

Chip Size Trends – 2005 ITRS MPU Model - unchanged

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025

Year of Introduction and Production

(mm

2)

MPU hp Production Chip Size

MPU cp Production Chip Size

MPU hp Introduction Chip Size

MPU cp Introduction Chip Size

DRAM 

HP

8G

SRAM Cell Efficiency= 60%Logic Gate Efficiency = 50%

p13c1.5Bt

p16c3.1

p19c p22c

800

Max Litho Field 2005 ITRS (4x): 834mm2 (26x32)

2 C

hips

per

Max

Lith

o F

ield

20

05 IT

RS

(4x

): 41

7m2

(26x

16)

p07h1.1Bt

p10h2.2Bt

p07h

1.1Bt

p16h p19h p22hp10h

2.2Bt

p13h

4.4Bt

p02h276Mt

p00h138Mt

p98h69Mt

p04h552Mt

p10c768Mt

hp MPU = 82% SRAM Transistors, 18% Core Logic Transistors

cp MPU = 58% SRAM Transistors, 42% Core Logic Transistors

p02h

276Mt

p04h

552Mt

26% / 2yrsChip Size Growth

p04c192Mt

p02c96Mt

p00c48Mt

p07c384Mt

p07c384Mt

p10c768Mt

p04c96Mt

p02c96Mt

p00c48Mt

p13c1.5Bt

Affordable hp MPU prod Target: 310mm2

Affordable cp MPU prod Target: 140mm2

90 64 45 22 1632 11 8WAS/IS: 12818025536090  68 45 22 1632 11 8 MPU: 136180255360 [2.5yr Technology Cycle    

2000-2010] 

Page 17: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 17

Summary – 2006 Update• DRAM Model stagger-contacted M1 unchanged from 2005 ITRS (3-year

cycle* after 2004).• MPU M1 stagger-contact half-pitch unchanged on a 2.5-year cycle*

through 2010/45nm, then 3-year cycle*.• Flash Model un-contacted poly half-pitch unchanged on 2-year cycle* to

1 year ahead of DRAM (contacted) in 2006, then 3-year cycle*.• Printed MPU/ASIC Gate Length is set by FEP and Litho TWGs ratio

agreement, but Physical GL targets unchanged and on 3-year cycle* beginning 2005.

• Industry Technology Capacity (SICAS) [updated to 2Q06 published status] continues on a on 2-year cycle rate at the leading edge.

• Total MOS Capacity is growing ~12% CAGR (SICAS), and 300mm Capacity Demand has ramped to 25% of Total MOS.

• Historical unchanged chip size models “connected” to Product scaling rate models, and include design factors, function size, and array efficiency targets

• The average of the industry product “Moore’s Law” is met or exceeded by the ITRS Memory Product Model targets throughout 2005-2020 ITRS timeframe - unchanged

[* ITRS Cycle definition = time to .5x linear scaling every two cycle periods]

Page 18: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 18

Backup

Note: ITRS Table Colorization Code Referenceunchanged:

Manufacturable solutions exist, and are being optimized

Manufacturable solutions are known Interim solutions are known

Manufacturable solutions are NOT known

Source: 2005 ITRS Documents online at: http://www.itrs.net/Links/2005ITRS/Home2005.htm

Page 19: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 19

2006 ITRS Update - Overall Roadmap Technology CharacteristicsSummary [page 1 of 2]

The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) Overall Roadmap Technology Characteristics (ORTC) section provides both originating guidance from ORTC Product Models and also consolidates items from other ITRS Technology Working Group (TWG) tables.Table 1a-h Product Generations (DRAM, Flash, MPU/ASIC) and Chip Size Model Technology Trends —There are no changes from the 2005 ORTC Technology Trend and Product Models, and there are also no changes to the 2005 Product Performance Models provided by the Design TWG. As a result, the ORTC Tables 1a-i, which are sourced from those models, remain unchanged. There are some corrections made to the line item labels: 1) various cell area and transistor area labels, which were incorrectly labeled as “mm2” in the 2005 tables, instead of “um2”; and 2) Flash Memory bits per cm2 labeled “Gbits/cm2” (Giga-bits/ cm2) rather than “Bits/cm2.” The remaining changes to ORTC tables for the 2006 Update are derived from corresponding changes to TWG tables, which are used as the various source line items for consolidation in the ORTC. A review of these TWG-related ORTC Tables is included below.Table 2a&b Lithographic-Field and Wafer-Size Trends —Lithography field size trends are unchanged. Wafer generation targets (450mm target to begin in 2012 on 11-year cycle) remain unchanged by the International Roadmap Committee (IRC). It is important to note that dialogue is underway between semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers to assess standards and productivity improvement options on 300mm and 450mm generations. Economic analysis of option scenarios is also underway to examine the required R&D cost, benefits, return-on-investment, and funding mechanism analysis and proposals.Table 3a&b Performance of Packaged Chips: Number of Pads and Pins —Internal chip pad counts for both I/O and power and ground remain unchanged (2:1 ratio I/O-to-power/ground for high-performance MPU; 1:1 ratio for high-performance ASIC). After assessment of the progress in the back-end assembly and packaging industry, the Assembly and Packaging (A&P) TWG increased their numerical targets and trends for the maximum pin counts, increasing pressure on future packaging costs. Table 4a&b Performance and Package Chips: Pads, Cost —The A&P TWG increased the area array flip chip pad spacing targets by 10–20%. The two-row staggered-pitch targets have increased 10–20% in the near termand the three-row staggered-pitch targets have increased 10–50% in the near term. Both pitch targets remain unchanged in the long term. Cost-per-pin targetsare adjusted by the A&P TWG, to reflect estimates and response to cost challenges.

Page 20: ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 1 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2006 ITRS Update/ORTC Product Models.

ITRS Winter Conference 2006 The Ambassador Hotel Hsin Chu Taiwan 20

2006 ITRS Update - Overall Roadmap Technology CharacteristicsSummary [continued page 2 of 2]

Table 4c&d Performance and Package Chips: Frequency On-chip Wiring Levels —The A&P TWG adjusted the chip-to-board (off-chip) frequency targets in the 2011–2020 range to remain below the Design/Process Integration (PIDS) targets for on-chip frequency. The Design/PIDS targets for on-chip frequency remain unchanged in the 2006 Update. The Interconnect TWG leaves the number of on-chip wiring levels unchanged.Table 5a&b Electrical Defects —The MPU and DRAM defect targets are adjusted by the Yield Enhancement TWG to reflect their new 2006 Update models and trends, in which both random defects/cm2 and the number of mask levels have leveled off through 2020 at smaller long range targets.Table 6a&b Power Supply and Power Dissipation —There are no changes to the PIDS TWG MPU and DRAM targets for voltage. The A&P TWG kept the maximum power per square centimeter targets unchanged through 2018. The 2019 and 2020 targets, which increased in the 2005 table, are constant in the update table. The maximum Watts (calculated by the ORTC table for specific product maximum production start chip sizes) are also now constant targets in 2019 and 2020.Table 7a&b Cost —The “tops-down” semiconductor market driver models for cost-per-function remain unchanged for the the 2006 Update. The Cost table targets for both memory and logic represent the need to preserve the historical economic semiconductor device productivity trend for continuous reduction of the cost-per-function by -29% compound annual reduction rate (CARR) throughout the roadmap timeframe. Preserving this cost-per-function productivity trend in view of increasing packaging costs, plus the slowing of product function densities due to slower technology cycles (three-year versus two-year) and design factor improvements, represent the over-arching economic grand challenge for the industry.


Recommended