Date post: | 24-Jun-2015 |
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It’s election year – so what?!
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“Voter apathy blamed for declining voter turnout”Dominion Post13 October 2007
Voting isyour right
and your responsibility
NZ voter turnout - % 18+ year olds
Why care about elections?
They provide parliament which provides a government
They give legitimacy to: – Parliament which taxes, spends, permits, compels, confines, monitors government
– Government which manages day to day
– New Zealand as a world citizen
Politicians and parties answer to those who vote
Participation is both a right and a responsibility, but saying this doesn’t make it happen
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Kiwis participating less and some groups well behind
Turnout is high - but trending lower
Young adults are - half of those not enrolled, least likely to vote (each election and by generation), under half aware it’s election year
Maori seats turnout 10-15% less than general
Late enrollers more likely to vote though!
Voter turnout is in decline
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AustraliaNew ZealandGermanyUKCanadaUSA
Election closest to half decade
Voters’ queue in
a new democrac
y
Under 25’s least likely to enrol and vote
% non-enrolled by age range @ 31 Jan '08
0%10%20%30%40%50%
18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
age range
Keisha: “I want to be PM” NZ Herald, 12 March 2008
Less than half know
it’s election year!
Would you let your granny choose
your music ?
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18-24
25 plus
Young people
now less likely to vote than young people
pre-1970
% enrolled not-voting, NZES
Māori identity probably influences roll and voting choices, but not whether to enrol or vote first
Voter turnout - % enrolled
Voter Turnout 2005 - % enrolled
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Lowest in anyelectorate
Highest in a Maorielectorate
Lowest in a generalelectorate
Highest in anyelectorate
Tamaki Makaurau
Tai Tokerau
Mangere
WellingtonCentral
New Zealand analysis – Jack Vowles, NZ Election Study
Clear generational patterns, related to competitiveness between Labour and National
Those born since 1974 are 20-30 % less likely to vote in first few elections than those born pre 1935
Some contributing factors are:– Lower sense of civic duty – strongest effect– Lower interest in politics – moderate effect– Lower voting age – (less social cohesion when first vote)
MMP has lifted turnout by average 4%, 8% for post 1975’ers
Non-voters we know
Let’s build a profile of some actual or likely non-voters we know
Then we’ll relate them to what we know about why people do and don’t join in with elections
Habit, competition, connectedness and belief encourage participation
Voting’s a habit, best acquired young
A close race boosts turnout
Being connected also helps
Voting’s even more likely if you believe any of: politics is interesting, participating can make a difference, and it’s easy
Efficacy = participation
People’s belief in their own ability to:– know what is going on
– be heard
– make a difference politically
It is state of mind, a habit and a self-fulfilling prophecy
Correlates with involvement and voting
Young more likely to have lower efficacy, particularly professed interest or perception of ease
Best built through personal experience
Low efficacy often expressed as
‘politics is boring / has nothing to do with me’
‘they don’t listen to us’ ‘it’s too complicated’ ‘no one sent me an
enrolment form’ / ‘I don’t know where to go to vote’
‘I don’t want to look stupid’
‘politics isn’t cool’ ‘the car doesn’t go there’ ‘I haven’t in the past so
why start now’ ‘it’s for adults’
Increasing political efficacy
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HHH LHH HLH HHL HLL LHL LLH LLLPolitical efficacy combinations: interesting, voting impacts, easy
%
% voters minus % non-votersabove the line means more votersbelow the line means more non-voters
Efficacy and younger voters
% under
30
% under
30 not vote
HHH 22 4
LHH 5 0
HLH 4 4
HHL 20 24
HLL 6 8
LHL 29 24
LLH 0 0
LLL 14 36
MOTIVATION Higher
KNOWLEDGE Lower
KNOWLEDGE Higher
MOTIVATION Lower
Young non-voter segments
Confident and Convinced
TentativeTriers
Distrustful and Disillusioned
Living for the Weekend
Politically Absent
Expressions of the SegmentsCONFIDENT AND CONVINCED
“I definitely could change things if I wanted to. I’d post polls, I’d kick off a referendum, I’d visit my local MP, I’d
be more vocal, I’d write in”
POLITICALLY ABSENT“It’s not that I don’t care, its more that I’m not interested.
I’ve got my own life to think about. Nothing is harming me at the moment… It doesn’t make a difference to my life... I don’t
think there’s anything anyone could say to make me vote”
DISTRUSTFUL AND DISILLUSIONED“It’s not worth voting for any of them. There
isn’t a good choice. Nothing will change”
TENTATIVE TRIERS“Everyone seems to have, like
made up their mind and I haven’t”
LIVING FOR THE WEEKEND“We live for the here and now…
rather than what’s going to happen 10 years down the track
or 5 years down the track”
Confident and Convinced Underlying commitment to political and electoral participation. However commitment
is shallow and behaviour not entrenched
Tentative TriersStrong desire for political and electoral participation, but held back
by lack of confidence and key skills. Weak, fearful relationship with politics
Living for the Weekend
Distrustful and Disillusioned
Politics and politicians provide a focus for frustration around the struggleto stay afloat. Rejecting political system provides a sense of control and superiority
Politically Absent
In the absence of any political literacy or electoral participation norms, voting is meaningless or off the radar
Voting is irrelevant – it assumes a long range view, whereas LFW have only an immediate view. Political engagement competes with “my life and lifestyle”
Some non/voter examples
“Principled”non-voter18-year-old ‘Grown Into It’ MigrantActive and engaged
‘Principled’ non-voter
I’m confident in my understanding of politics
Voting won’t change anythingI don’t trust “the government”There are other, more effective ways to make a difference than voting
Politics is all global now. The New Zealand government can’t have any impact on the issues I care about.
All the government does these days is stop me from doing things
18-year-old
Voting is my rightElections are a chance to make a difference
Politics is important, but scaryPolling places are scaryCan’t decide who to vote forPolitics – nah, don’t do politicsPolitics – that’s what adults doNone of my mates talk about it, so I don’t either
‘Grown Into It’
I wasn’t into it when I was 18 but now I am
Politics is important, but a bit dauntingIt’s good we can voteElections are a chance to make a difference
I’m 35 now and I don’t want to admit to anyone that I don’t know what to do
It’s so hard to decide who to vote forMy new partner is politically active and is “making” me vote
Migrant
I want to take part in my new country Elections can make a difference for migrants
I don’t understand New Zealand politics at all
Politics is dangerous where I come fromI feel uncomfortable talking about politics
I’ve always voted the same party, but can’t find an equivalent here
Active and engaged voter
I’m confident in my understanding of politics
Politics affects me. I talk about it. I do it.
Voting is my right and my responsibility so I’m going to use it
Elections are a chance to make a difference
Nothing would stop me from votingEveryone should vote, it’s easyEvery vote counts
The problem of …
Declining voter turnoutPeople not ‘switching on’ to politics
… is real… is now… needs action
The response
It’s easy to enrol decide vote
Andreasen’s ‘Stages of Change’ model is commonly
used in social marketing frameworks
PREPARATION
MAINTENANCE
ACTION
In many cases, only a small proportion of the target audience is ready for action-oriented interventions, and focus needs to be directed to moving people out of the earlier stages
CONTEMPLATION
PRECONTEMPLATION Haven’t even thought about it
Thinking about it
I’ve enrolledDeciding who to vote
for
Voting
Going to keep voting in future
Population behaviour change model says we all have a role
For a population to adopt and maintain a desired behaviour the following are needed:
appropriate policy designappropriate institutional design strong community actionindividual skillsa supportive social environment
Youth, Maori, Pacific, migrant, disability focused programmes
Stakeholder roadshowFace-to-face peer-to-peer enrolmentAdvertising and public relations initiatives
Multiple languages and formatsEducation resources and teacher education
Journalism educationwww.elections.org.nz www.ivotenz.org.nz
Sources
Elections New Zealand website www.elections.org.nz – Teaching and research centre
“Voting’s a habit best formed early” Franklin, Mark. (2004). Voter turnout
and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since 1945. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
“Connectedness motivates" Putnam, Robert (2000) Bowling Alone, New
York: Simon & Schuster
Sources
Population Behavioural Change - Ottawa Charter for Public Health, WHO.
Individual Behavioural Change - Andreasen, A. (1995). Marketing social change. San Francisco, Jossey-Bass.
New Zealand Election Study www.nzes.com