ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New RadiocommunicationTechnologies for ICT in Developing Countries
(Africa Region)Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004
Riccardo PasseriniRiccardo PasseriniFocal Point IMTFocal Point IMT--20002000, ITU, ITU--BDTBDT
Mobile Communications: present situation and future development
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
The growth of mobile cellular services
1993-1999 actual, with forecasts to 2003.
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Mobile Users
Fixed Lines
Fixed Lines vs. Mobile Users, worldwide, Million
6%9% 13%
20%27%
38%
52%
67%82% 95%
107%
0
50
100
150
200
250
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Mobile users added each year, Million
Mobile users as a % of fixed
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database and ITU forecasts in Trends inTelecommunications Reform, 2000 -2001: Interconnection Regulation .
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
The growth of mobile cellular services
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Trends – Mobile Growth (worldwide)
Cellular Subscribers (millions)
Source: ITU Indicators
Number of mobile subscribers already greater than fixed
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 1998 2000 2001 2002 2006 2010
WorldAmericasAsia&PacificEurope&Africa
Ovun
UMTS Forum
ITU
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Growth of mobile
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Figure.1: Forecasted Adoption of GSM Mobile Phones in Western Europe and the World
1412.11286.7
1144.7
910.2
666.2
455.1
258138.4
71.1
696.6659.4
596.2492.9
365.1256.4
156.987.346.90
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Dec 97 Dec 98 Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05
Su
bsc
rib
ers
(mill
ion
s)
Worldwide Total GSM Subscribers Western Europe GSM Subscribers
Estimates
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
World GSM Cellular Subscribers to June 2001
Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
PortugalGermany
Greece
Italy
Spain
Sweden
UKAustria
Denmark
Finland
France
USA/Canada Americas
Europe - Non EU
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Africa
EU
-
Source: http://www.gsmworld.com
Belgium
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Trends – Mobile Growth (Africa)-1
Cellular Subscribers (x1000)
Source: ITU Indicators
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Côte d'IvoireAngolaBeninBurkina F.BurundiCameroonD.R. CongoEq.GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaKenyaLesothoMadagascarMalawiMaliMozambiqueNigeriaSenegalSudanTanzania
Côte d’Ivoire
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Trends – Mobile Growth (Africa)-2
Cellular Subscribers (x1000)
Source: ITU Indicators
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Côte d'IvoireAngolaBeninBurkina F.BurundiCameroonD.R. CongoEq.GuineaEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaKenyaLesothoMadagascarMalawiMaliMozambiqueNigeriaSenegalSudanTanzaniaS. Africa
South Africa
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Uganda mini case study
0
20'000
40'000
60'000
80'000
100'000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Subscribers to communication services, Uganda
Fixed line voice
Mobile
Internet
17.0%
24.2%
21.7%
24.2%
12.8%
Ugandan calling opportunities, Dec. 99
Fixed-to-fixed
Fixed-to-mobile
Mobile-to-fixed
Mobile-to-mobile withinterconnect
Mobile-to-mobile without
interconnect
Note: Mobile-to-mobile without interconnect denotes mobile calls terminated on the same mobile network.Source: ITU, Uganda Internet Case Study, available at: http://www.itu.int/interconnect/case_studies.html
Mobile lines overtakes fixed lines in Uganda
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Growth of Moroccan mobile subscribers
Number of mobile subscribers
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
Actual 1996 forecasts 1999 forecasts
2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
1998
Sept 99
Sept 2000
Source: ITU Effective Regulation: Moroccan Case Study.
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
CPP vs. RPP
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
3'000
3'500
4'000
4'500
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Main lines
Mobi le subscr ibers
M e x i c o , f ixed & mobi le users added each year , 000s
Pre-paid introduced
CPP introduced
89
7383
94
Outgoing mobile traffic Incoming mobile traffic
Before CPP Mar-99After CPP Dec-99
Minutes of use per subscriber,before and after CPP
The impact of CPP introduction in Mexico
Source: ITU Trends in Telecommunications Reform 2000-2001
•RPP: Receiving Party Pays
Mobile party pays for incoming calls and fixed party pays only local tariff
•Calling Party Pays
Mobile party does not pay for incoming calls and fixed party pays a premium to call the mobile party
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Figure 1: Top Mobile Economies (2000, millions)
23.2
24.7
26.8
29.1
40
42.2
48.1
66.8
85.3
110
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Brazil
Spain
Korea (Rep. Of)
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
Japan
China
United States
# of Subscribers
Source: International Telecommunication Union
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Fixed
Mobile
Fixed Internet
Mobile Internet
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
(Mill
ion
s)
Minutemigration
Subscriber Growth
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Calling opportunities worldwideCalling opportunities worldwide
89.7%
5.0%5.0%0.3%
1993
52.7%
19.9%
19.9%
7.5% 1998
23.4%
25.0%25.0%
26.7%
2003
Fixed-to-fixed
Fixed-to-mobile
Mobile-to-fixed
Mobile-to-mobile
Source: ITU Fixed-Mobile Interconnect website: http://www.itu.int/interconnect
Fixed-to-fixed
Fixed-to-fixed
Fixed-to-mobile
Mobile-to-fixed
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Digital divide = Telecoms divideUser distribution, by income group, Jan 2000
Internet users Mobile users Telephone lines Population
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
70%80%90%
100%High income
Upper-mid income
Lower-mid income
Low income
280 million
490 million
912 million 6 billion
82 %69 %
58 %
15 %
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
Digital divide reflected in the Digital divide reflected in the TelecomsTelecoms dividedivideUser distribution, by income group, Jan 2003User distribution, by income group, Jan 2003
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Internet users Mobile users Telephone lines Population
High income
Upper-mid income
Lower-mid income
Low income
69%
55%
623 M
52%
1.163 B
16%
1.092 B 6.092 B
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
The digital divide is shrinking, but also shifting
Share of low and lower-middle income countries in:
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
18%Jan. 1995 Jan. 2000
28%
5% 14%
1.1% 7.6%
Telephone main lines
Mobile subscribers
Estimated Internet Users
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
The digital divide in January 2003The digital divide in January 2003
Internet users24%
76%
Telephone lines
58%
42%
Mobile users
36%
64%
Upper-mid income + High income
Low income + Lower-mid income
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Mobile Technology Split (%)
99,6%98,7%96,9%
92,8%
0,3%1,5%
4,8%
13,3%
27,4%
48,0%
69,1%
84,6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3G Subs 2G Subs
Mobile Technology Split (%)
99,6%98,7%96,9%
92,8%
0,3%1,5%
4,8%
13,3%
27,4%
48,0%
69,1%
84,6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3G Subs 2G SubsSource: ITU Draft Guidelines on Smooth Transition to 3G
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
14.10015.009 15.555 15.928
8.8549.819
10.59311.200
11.54611.102
9.752
480200 70
34 172 5821.702
3.682
6.714
9.979
12.554
4.469
2.294
1.092
7.264
15.193 15.489 15.755 15.998
8.854
9.81910.627
11.37212.128
12.80413.433
13.97814.448
14.848
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3G Subs 2G Subs
Mobile Subscribers (000)
14.10015.009 15.555 15.928
8.8549.819
10.59311.200
11.54611.102
9.752
480200 70
34 172 5821.702
3.682
6.714
9.979
12.554
4.469
2.294
1.092
7.264
15.193 15.489 15.755 15.998
8.854
9.81910.627
11.37212.128
12.80413.433
13.97814.448
14.848
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3G Subs 2G Subs
Mobile Subscribers (000)
Source: ITU Draft Guidelines on Smooth Transition to 3G
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Convergence
Computer & Data
ConsumerElectronics
Entertainment& Publishing
BusinessMultimedia
Information
Gadgets
Telecom
Home
Multimed
ia
Informatio
n &
Work Support
?
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Convergence
•The coming together of telecommunications, computing and broadcasting into information and communications technologies (ICT)•Within telecom the convergence of voice and data and fixed and mobile services•ICT uses same:
–Technology used to code voice, data and video–Carrier for voice, data and video
•Expands the range and quality of services•Requires broadband technologies•Encourages the use of a single communications regulator
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
The emergence of the ‘networked’ society’
We are at the outset of a truly remarkable revolution where • Anything that can be connected will be!• Anything that can be digital will be!• Anything that can become mobile will become!
IndustrialRevolution
InformationSociety
The ‘Networked’
Society
Dismantling of traditional industry structures, disaggregation of traditional business models,
a wealth of opportunities and considerable threaths
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU Structure
3 sectors:• Radiocommunicati
on• Telecommunication
Standardization• Telecommunication
Development
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU Sector Roles and Mission
• ITU-R: management of radio-frequency spectrum and satellite orbits
• ITU-T: standards covering all fields of telecommunications
• ITU-D: facilitate connectivity and access, foster policy, regulatory and network readiness, and expand human capacity through training programs, formulate financing strategies and e-enable enterprises in developing countries
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
World RadiocommunicationConference (WRC)
• Held every ~2-3 years; WRC-03: June 2003, Geneva
• Role: review and revise the Radio Regulations– international treaty on use of
the radio-frequency spectrum and satellite orbits
– determine Questions for study by the RA and SGs
Additional details available in handouts and on ITU web site
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Radiocommunication Assembly (RA)
• Meets every ~2-3 years; may be with a WRC– RA-03: June 2003, Geneva
• RAs: work priorities, urgency and time-frames
• Approve ITU-R Recommendations, technical studies in support of regulatory work of WRCs
Additional details available in handouts and on ITU web site
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Radio Regulations Board (RRB)
• approves Rules of Procedure for applying Radio Regulations and registering frequency assignments made by Member States
Additional details available in handouts and on ITU web site
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU-R Structure - Study Groups1 Spectrum Management3 Radiowave Propagation4 Fixed Satellite Service6 Broadcasting Services7 Science Services8 Mobile, Radiodetermination,
Amateur and related Satellite Services
9 Fixed ServiceSC Special Committee on
Regulatory/Procedural MattersCCV Coor. Committee for VocabularyCPM Conference Preparatory Meeting
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU Sector Roles and Mission• ITU-R: management of radio-frequency spectrum
and satellite orbits• ITU-T: standards covering all fields of
telecommunications• ITU-D: facilitate connectivity and access, foster
policy, regulatory and network readiness, and expand human capacity through training programs, formulate financing strategies and e-enable enterprises in developing countries
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
World Telecommunication Standardization Assembly (WTSA)
• normally held every 4 years; WTSA-2000 in Montreal, WTSA-2004 to be in Florianopolis, Brazil
• approves ITU-T work program• determines priorities, urgency and time-frame for
completion of standards work• approves ITU-T Recommendations• considers reports of study groups and TSAG• decides on structure of study groups, allocation of
Questions
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Extensive Work Program -Major topics by Study Group
2 Operational aspects of service provision, networks and performance3 Tariff and accounting principles including related
telecommunications economic and policy issues4 Telecommunication management, including TMN5 Protection against electromagnetic environment effects6 Outside plant9 Integrated broadband cable networks and television and sound
transmission11 Signalling requirements and protocols12 End-to-end transmission performance of networks and terminals13 Multi-protocol and IP-based networks and their internetworking15 Optical and other transport networks16 Multimedia services, systems and terminals17 Data Networks and Telecommunication SoftwareSSG "IMT-2000 and Beyond”
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU Sector Roles and Mission
• ITU-R: management of radio-frequency spectrum and satellite orbits
• ITU-T: standards covering all fields of telecommunications
• ITU-D: facilitate connectivity and access, foster policy, regulatory and network readiness, and expand human capacity through training programs, formulate financing strategies and e-enable enterprises in developing countries
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
World Telecommunication Development Conference (WTDC)
• normally held every four years: WTDC 2002 in Istanbul, next WTDC in 2006
• fix objectives and strategies for worldwide and regional development of telecommunications– priority to expansion and modernization of networks and
mobilization of resources to boost telecommunication penetration and access in the world's poorer countries.
• review progress made in telecommunication development in developing countries
• promote the international cooperation• provide direction to BDT• establish ITU-D study groups
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU-D Study Groups
• ITU-D not involved in technical standardization so manages only two study groups– serve as forum for developing and developed countries,
and public and private sector organizations to meet– purpose: devise innovative solutions to address specific
problem areas as identified by WTDC• study focus: telecommunications development strategies• SG 1 - Telecommunication development strategies and
policies• SG 2 - Development and management of
telecommunication services and networks
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC)• Held every ~2-3 years; WRC-03: June 2003, Geneva• Role: review and revise the Radio Regulations
– international treaty governing the use of the radio-frequency spectrum and the geostationary-satellite and non-geostationary-satellite orbits
– general scope of WRC agenda established 4 - 6 years in advance; final agenda set by ITU Council 2 years before
– give instructions to the Radio Regulations Board and the Radiocommunication Bureau, and review their activities.
– determine Questions for study by the RA and SGs in preparation for future radiocommunication conferences
Additional Details
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Radiocommunication Assembly (RA)
• Meet every ~2-3 years; may be associated with a WRC; RA-03: June 2003, Geneva– WRCs determine Questions for study by RA and SGs
in preparation for future WRCs
• RAs:– approve work program for study groups– set up structures required to carry out work– work assignments priority, urgency and time-frame
• Approve ITU-R Recommendations on technical specifications of systems
• Approve technical studies in support of regulatory work of WRCs
Additional Details
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
Radio Regulations Board (RRB)
• approves Rules of Procedure used in applying Radio Regulations and registering frequency assignments made by Member States
• addresses matters which cannot be resolved through application of Radio Regulations and Rules of Procedure
• considers reports of unresolved interference investigations carried out by the Bureau at request of administrations and formulates Recommendations
• advises WRCs and RAs• Bureau Director is Executive Secretary
Additional Details
ITU /ICTP Workshop on New Radiocommunication Technologies for ICT in Developing Countries, Trieste, Italy, May 17-21, 2004 – R. Passerini, ITU-BDT
ITU and IMT-2000
ITU- R:Radio aspects(Standards&Regulations)WP8F (Lead Group)WP8D (Satellite)
ITU- T: Network aspects(Standards, Tariffs, Numbering)
SSG (Lead group)SG3 (Tariff)SG11 (Protocols)
BDTPolicyRegulationAssistance,Implementation
ITU Coordination