ITU Internet Reports 2004: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetThe Portable Internetwww.itu.int/portableinternet
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 2
New ITU report (6New ITU report (6thth edition in series)edition in series)Table of ContentsTable of Contents
1. Introduction2.Portable Internet technologies3.Market trends4.Policy and regulation5.A tool for bridging the digital divide6.The future of portable Internet technologies7.The information society and human factorsStatistical tables220 pages
RELEASE DATE: 6 September 2004
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 3
The Portable InternetThe Portable Internet
Mobility
Speed
Broadband
WLAN
IMT -2000
Market opportunity for new wireless
technologies
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.
A new market opportunity, A new market opportunity, situated between the high situated between the high
speeds of fixedspeeds of fixed--line line broadband and the high broadband and the high
mobility of 3Gmobility of 3G
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 4
Advanced wireless technologiesAdvanced wireless technologies
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.
Long Range
• IMT -2000 (3G)
• WiMax -IEEE 802.16
• IEEE 802.20
• HiperMAN
• Satellite
• HAPS/LAPS
• LMDS
• MMDS
Medium Range
• WLAN
• Wi-Fi -IEEE 802.11b
• IEEE 802.11a
• IEEE 802.11g
• IEEE 802.11i
• Free space optics
• HiperLAN2
•Ultra wideband
Short Range
• Bluetooth
• RFID
•ZigBee
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 5
Portable Internet characteristicsPortable Internet characteristics
! Portable" Based on advanced wireless
technologies, including 3G mobile and Wireless LAN
! High-Speed" Providing speeds of at least
256 kbit/s up to >50 Mbit/s! Large Storage
" Multi-gigabyte storage capacity allowing storage of movies, music, files etc
! Everything over IP" Allowing digital data exchange
between services and apps
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1994 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 20030
5
10
15
20
25Mobile subscribersInternet usersMobile penetrationInternet penetration
Users (millions) and penetration per 100 pop.
“Virtually all of the growth in the global telecoms sector over the past decade has come from mobile communications and the Internet”
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 6
The Market OpportunityThe Market Opportunity
Note: Each dot represents one economy. A log scale is used.
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. 0.01
0.1
1
10
100
10000.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
Mobile penetration
Fixe
d pe
netr
atio
n
A. High fixed/Low mobile12 economies with 197.2 million inhabitants
B. High/high116 + 3.3 bn
C. Low/low73 + 2.6 bn
D. Low fixed/high mobile:
14 economies with 156.8 m inhabitants
Development path of 1980s
Development path of 1990s
Development path of 2000s
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 7
FixedFixed--line broadband: Top 15line broadband: Top 15
0 5 10 15 20 25
Norway
Finland
USA
Singapore
Sweden
Switzerland
Netherlands
Japan
Belgium
Denmark
Taiwan, China
Iceland
Canada
HK, China
Korea (Rep.)
DSLCable ModemsOther
Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 1 January 2004Source:
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 8
3G mobile (IMT3G mobile (IMT--2000)2000)
Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 14.9 million
CDMA 1xEV-DO subscribers
W-CDMA subscribers
Korea 1xEV-DO, 53.7%Other EVDO, 1.0%
Korea, W-CDMA0.3%
Italy, 6.7%
UK, 3.7%
HK, China, 0.7%
Other WCDMA, 2.0%
Japan, 31.8%
Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 103 million
Korea, 21.8%
Japan, 14.3%
Rest of the world, 63.9%
CDMA 1x subscribers Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet.
By the middle of 2004, there were 118 million
3G subscribers worldwide
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 9
WiMAX DevelopmentWiMAX Development! WiMAX equipment should appear in three
stages:
Outdoor mountedEarly 2005 Indoor installed
Late 2005Built into devices
2006Source: Intel
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! Long range" Technologies such as
WiMax (IEEE 802.16a) can transport large amounts of data over long distances. WiMax should be able to carry a 70 Mbit/s connection over 50 km.
! Short range" WLAN technologies such
as Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11b) can spread the connection over a short distance from the “landing spot” of a long-range connection.
“One wireless technology to reach remote areas, another to share One wireless technology to reach remote areas, another to share the the connection once itconnection once it’’s theres there””
The long and short of The long and short of WiMAX and WiWiMAX and Wi--FiFi
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The portable Internet and The portable Internet and multimediamultimedia
! Change in the way we think about streaming content "Less emphasis on video-on-demand"More emphasis on one-to-many broadcasting
via satellite to portable devices
Japan and Korea’s new digital media band satellite will beam 40 Korean and 70 Japanese TV channels to mobile phones and PDAs
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 12
UltraUltra--wide bandwide bandNew technology to allow devices to communicate at high speeds, New technology to allow devices to communicate at high speeds, across large frequency swaths, but at very low power.across large frequency swaths, but at very low power.
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Mesh networksMesh networksMesh networks could drastically improve the reach and bandwidth Mesh networks could drastically improve the reach and bandwidth of of wireless networks by employing all users as nodes to pass traffiwireless networks by employing all users as nodes to pass traffic.c.
Source: Nokia
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ZigBee ZigBee –– micro networksmicro networks
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Broadband pricesBroadband prices
32.9731.5031.2130.6130.1229.57
27.7127.7126.9226.6426.0726.0525.3825.3025.0025.0024.7723.9323.58
21.7121.1321.01
19.3918.68
17.4316.78
14.7714.0813.64
9.66
2 562 564 0 02 5651210 2 410 0 05122 565123 0 05126 4 02 565122 565122 0 4 82 565122 563 8 42 56150 051210 2 42 565122 56512
0 10 20 30 40
Morocco 30Barbados 29
New Zealand 28Mexico 27
French Guiana 26Slovenia 25Germany 24
Netherlands 23Senegal 22Estonia 21
Brazil 20Malaysia 19
Hong Kong, China 18Greece 17Ukraine 16Cyprus 15
Czech Republic 14Korea (Rep.) 13
Israel 12Sri Lanka 11Australia 10
Croatia 9Taiw an, China 8Macao, China 7
Belarus 6Japan 5
Slovak Republic 4Jordan 3
Lithuania 2China 1
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500Broadband monthly sub. prices, US$, July 2004
Overall subscription charges are important
Source: ITU research
0.920.860.86
0.550.430.42
0.380.310.290.280.260.24
0.200.180.180.180.170.170.150.13
0.100.090.070.060.060.040.040.020.010.00
Estonia 30Greece 29
Czech Republic 28New Zealand 27
Bahamas 26Ireland 25Iceland 24Austria 23
Slovenia 22Luxembourg 21
United Kingdom 20Israel 19
France 18Italy 17
Australia 16Finland 15
Netherlands 14Norw ay 13Denmark 12Germany 11
Sw itzerland 10Singapore 9
Belgium 8Canada 7
United States 6Hong Kong, China
Taiw an, China 4Korea (Rep.) 3
Sw eden 2Japan 1
Cost 100 kbit/s as % of monthly income
But factoring in the speed of the connection and income is the more telling story
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The digital divide The digital divide ––not the only dividenot the only divide
For individuals For countries
Socio-economic status Development stage
Gender Infrastructure
Age, life stage Public policy
Language/ethnic status Skills mix
Rural/urban location Size of domestic market
Skills balance Location relative to trading partners
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable InternetITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 18
Digital divide: some progressDigital divide: some progress
10 161499
202390.4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1993 1998 2003
Internet users (million)
Devel-oping
Devel-oped
Internet
31244
734
380
608
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1993 1998 2003
Mobile (million)
Devel-oping
Devel-oped
Mobile
Note: Developed economies account for roughly 14% of the world’s population but 75% of world income.Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
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EndlessEndlesscatchcatch--upup
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
High
Upper middle
Low er middle
Low
Internet users per 100 inhab., by income level
0123456789
10
2000 2001 2002 2003
High
Upper middle
Low er middle
Low
Broadband subs per 100 inhab., by income level
Just as developing economies Just as developing economies start making progress in rolling start making progress in rolling out a particular technology, out a particular technology, another appears in richer another appears in richer economies and the cycle economies and the cycle repeats.repeats.
Source:ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
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Beyond infrastructure deploymentBeyond infrastructure deployment
! Education and awareness"Fostering
entrepreneurship! Affordability
"Encourage pre-paid services also for mobile data
! Local and community-based initiatives! Content development
"Keeping it locally relevant
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The portable Internet and the The portable Internet and the human factorhuman factor
! Health concerns and opportunities! Blurring boundaries between the public and
private sphere! The new “digital persona”! Protecting the consumer! Taking care of a tech-savvy youth culture! A peek at the future today, e.g.
"A high-tech identity (e.g. injectable RFID)"Enhancing the five human senses
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New ITU Report: The Portable InternetNew ITU Report: The Portable Internet
Available Now!Available Now!1. Introduction2.Portable Internet technologies3.Market trends4.Policy and regulation5.A tool for bridging the digital divide6.The future of portable Internet technologies7.The information society and the human factorStatistical tables
www.itu.int/portableinternet