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New Opportunities
in Voice and Messaging
ITU Telecom World 2013, BangkokDean Bubley & Martin Geddes
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Critic of RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Nov 2013
Workshops on WebRTC, Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
About Martin Geddes Consulting
Strategy consulting on broadband, voice and cloud services
Industry thought leader – Sprint, BT, Telco 2.0
Focus on network performance and next-gen voice services
Blogging and speaking on OTT and Future of Voice since 2003
Co-founder and Executive Director of Hypervoice Consortium
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @martingeddes Free newsletter: martingeddes.com
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
To learn more…
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
www.disruptive-analysis.com
www.martingeddes.com
MORE
Declaration of relevant business interests
Martin:
Board member: Voxygen
Client: HarQen
Advisory board: VoiceSage
Business advisor: Predictable Network Solutions
Paid by Hypervoice Consortium members
Many other consulting clients
Dean:
Many research and consulting clients across telecoms ecosystem
(too many to list them all here!)
Advisor: Voxygen, Temasys, Movirtu
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
A map of the „new world‟ of voice
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Agenda
Overview of the Future of Voice (Martin)
The Death of Ubiquity (Dean)
Beyond telephony: Value-added voice & Hypervoice (Martin)
Beyond telephony: WebRTC (Dean)
So what and what next for telcos?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Telephony is like a Marks & Spencer sandwich
Perishable product
Beautiful packaging
Own-branded only
No personalisation
“Hold the mayo…”
The highest quality…
…but at a high price
November 2013
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
“Telepocalypse”
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
Slow growth of OTTs & UC
Slow shift of TDM to IP for voice
Lots of good ideas, hard to implement
Broadband and smartphone explosion…
…but no change to core telephony offer
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
First
Future of Voice
Workshop
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
Today
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Predicting
“peak telephony”
Now
Volume & value
declines in
mature markets
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Risk of voice
over-supply
Now
Risk of voice
under-demand
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
OTT =
threat
Now
OTT =
opportunity
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Voice-in-apps
as concept
Now
APIs, WebRTC &
cloud telephony
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
4G voice &
messaging
doubts
Now
VoLTE and RCS
problems real
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Mainstream opinion is finally catching up…
“After decades of stagnation, the voice landscape is undergoing
a seismic shift. Migration is in full swing to richer IP-based
communication, and Web real-time communication is expected
to significantly disrupt the value chain.
CSPs should reassess their strategy
to avoid being disenfranchised.”
“The Future Evolution of CSP Voice Services”
Gyanee Dewnarain, Research Director, Gartner
14 November 2013
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Voice is suddenly changing fast
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2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
?
Voice gets “app stored”
Demand-driven future
No two users have the exact same
needs
Hyper-personalised
There is no “one-size-fits-all”
voice solution
Supply-centric outlook = death
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
From ubiquity to Hi-Lo mix of communications
Jacket: $1000
Leggings: $10
Sunglasses: $100
Uniform: $150
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Your fate if you don‟t adapt to changing context!
Marks & Spencer has revealed a 9.1% fall in half-year profits as
underlying sales of clothing and homewares
slipped back for the ninth consecutive quarter.
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Tuesday 5 November 2013
To learn more…
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Sign up to the
Future of Communications
newsletter
http://eepurl.com/dSkfz
MORE
For IP
Communications, Ubiquity is
Dead
ITU Telecom World 2013, BangkokDean Bubley & Martin Geddes
Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
Predictable irrationality
Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Convergence
& standards
Fragmentation & differentiation
Telephony & SMS will continue to exist,
but there will be
NO more standard, interoperable services
Comforting myths about demand
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Good quality is critical
Interoperability is essential
Minutes / messages = value
“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls
November 2013
Uncomfortable demand reality
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013October 2013
Good quality is only sometimes critical
Interoperability is essential
for basic lowest-common
denominator services only
Intention & outcomes = value
Phone calls are
becoming less useful
Essential supply consequences
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Range of levels of network quality and cost…
…from unmanaged to assured
Shift focus to embedded voice
Need new demand-driven
services model
Need personalisation and
contextualisation capabilities
November 2013
In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”
Near voice
November 2013
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
>100 years ago
Pretty good for the 19th century...
November 2013
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web
calls
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
CircuitIP
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
November 2013
Intent & context....
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
November 2013
The chart you‟ll never see…
Calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Different contexts
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Living room
Board room
Airline loungeBar
Public transport
Out walking
At work
November 2013
1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS”
SERVICES CANNOT
FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
SMS
November 2013
So how important is quality?
Must have
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
I'll call back
% calls
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model
We don‟t pay for movies or flights by the minute
Short calls often more valuable than long
Minutes = easy to count (and must be counted)
Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model
Regulator mindset needs to shift too
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Service
Product
Feature
Function
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Ubiquity is dead. And that‟s a good thing.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
To learn more…
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Sign up to the
Disruptive Wireless newsletterhttp://eepurl.com/wAqC5
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.comMORE
Voice Value-added Services
ITU Telecom World 2013, BangkokDean Bubley & Martin Geddes
Voice VAS
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Standard feature set
(caller ID, voicemail,
forwarding, etc.)
Audio conferencing
Premium voice
Ringback tones
Centrex
Translation
Voice, video and
messaging
Call recording
Visual call control
Source tracking
Next-generation
conference calling
Standard fixed +
mobile feature set
Next-gen
“mobile, social,
cloud” feature set
“Hypervoice”
November 2013
Singtel – concierge-type services
“Next-generation Yellow Pages + search, for voice”
More than 150,000 local businesses and 7,000 hawker locations
Singapore English and local terms
Mobile-app based
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Yes, you can compete with Google (and win!)
“We have spent a lot of effort to ensure the
app is able to understand the way
Singaporeans speak English,
and this sets deF!ND apart from other
voice recognition apps that have been
developed abroad”
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
If you can‟t beat them…
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Nigeria
+Philippines
+
November 2013
DoCoMo - automatic voice translation service
World‟s first commercial mobile service for translation of
conversations between people speaking Japanese and other
languages.
Hanashite Hon‟yaku provides translations between Japanese and the
receiver‟s language.
Translations are provided both as screen text and voice readouts.
Dial the other party using an Android app for DOCOMO
smartphones and tablets running Android 2.2 or higher.
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Tropo Ameche – telco-centric “voice apps store”
Integrated with telco core network
Wide range of capabilities (e.g. voice whisper)
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
CallTrunk – consumer call recording
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Capture Cloud
integration
Search
and analyse
November 2013
VoiceBase – enterprise call search
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Cloud/SaaS integration is important
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Op3nVoice - Call recording seems to be „hot‟
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C2B Inbound call source/lead tracking
Optimise the ROI of your marketing campaigns
Compare response rates of different marketing channels with
unique trackable phone numbers
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
SME: Telefonica Azul - Rich visual call control
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
1:1 call
Group or
conference call
November 2013
How?
Not just traditional “network services” and call control
New architectures expose or defer call control
Many value-added integration points (Hosting, security, etc.)
Multiple commercial options: Build, partner, re-sell
E.g. Vodafone OneNet vs Cisco UC + SingTel UCaaS
Enterprise segment tends to lead
Long history of making money from reselling 3rd party applications and
services and supplying appropriate connectivity
Used to re-selling PBX, video conferencing + service wrapper
“OTT” – has always been that way in the enterprise world!
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
What is hypervoice?
Voice as 2-way audio Voice as
information
November 2013
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Problems we are solving
Voice has value beyond
a single instant
Voice has value at a
single instant
November 2013
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Activity stream
Recordable
Shareable
Workflow integration
Searchable
Rich UI
Defining characteristics
Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0
?
HypermessagingHypertext Hypervoice
November 2013
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Summary
Hypervoice conversations are the
„social‟ version of telephony
and unified communications.
November 2013
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To learn more…
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White paper, newsletter, blog at www.hypervoice.org
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WebRTC Market
Status & Opportunities
ITU Telecom World 2013, BangkokDean Bubley & Martin Geddes
The vision: voice & video everywhere
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Talked about for years, but hard to achieve
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• Expensive
• Inflexible
• Poor developer support
• Limited use-cases
• Reliance on “call” model
• Poor audio/video
• Hard to integrate
= Patchy adoption & little
developer enthusiasm / buzz
WebRTC – what is it?
An easy way to put voice & video into web browsers…
… and also apps, and devices and more
High quality, network-intelligent (eg firewalls)
Also with “context”, realtime data & encryption
Developer-friendly & user-friendly
Excitement, buzz & “cool factor”
“Democratises” voice & video. Cheap, easy innovation
More than just a tech standard. A “movement”.
Huge disruption potential for telcos & others
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When?
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NOW
Already being commercialised & monetised…
…before it is standardised
Who‟s involved?
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& 200+ startups & 1000’s of developers
Original 3-way support for WebRTC expanding
WebRTC
Enterprise
TelcoConsumer Web
November 2013
DevicesNetwork
tools
TV &
gaming
WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013
November 2013
View Oct‟13: lead WebRTC use-cases
Early enterprise adoption
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Live &
commercial
Verticals & corporatePilots / pre-
commercial
Trials &
demos
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
November 2013
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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speedCopyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7
Turbocharge Telco-OTT
apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriber
Enhance developer platform
TV, entertain- ment &
digital services
Strengthen enterprise &
verticals
October 2013
Also: invest / incubate
Improve own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc
IMS should be <30% total
WebRTC effort &
investment
Policy impact of WebRTC
?(but urgent)
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013
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For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details see:
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html
Or email information@disruptive-
analysis.com
What next?
ITU Telecom World 2013, BangkokDean Bubley & Martin Geddes
Which way do you want to go?
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013Oct 2013
Operators
Milk the cash cow…
Re-think credit control
More bundling with new VAS
Refine segmentation
Customers, not devices
New payment models
…and recognise and engage with
inevitable change
Can‟t limit user behaviour
“Don‟t fight demand”
Lots of opportunity so accept change
November 2013
Operators should do these five things now!
1. Build off-net (TelcoOTT) service capability
2. Measure and manage on-net OTT voice quality
3. Create a value-added voice strategy
Integrated with core voice offer only where appropriate
4. Re-examine responsibility for voice
5. Engage regulator in pro-active dialogue
November 2013
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Regulatory and policy considerations
This is good for consumers!
Service innovation and competition
Treat like the rest of the web – progress & diversity is good
Potential huge area for digital economy + R&D
Will increase pressure on telcos in some cases
Protecting „national champion‟ incumbent players may backfire
Regulation is going to get more complex
„Voice‟ is becoming 1000‟s of apps, not just “calls”?
Revisit rules & laws to reflect new world of voice/video
Difficult issues around privacy, security, encryption
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Also available…
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Workshops, Briefings, Consultancy