City of Los Angeles Bixel and Lucas Project PCR Services Corporation/SCH No. IV.B‐43 IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS B. AIR QUALITY AND GREENHOUSE GASES 2. GREENHOUSE GASES 1. INTRODUCTION This section describes current Federal, State, and local regulations and programs that have been implemented to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change in California and the Los Angeles region. Inventories of GHG emissions associated with implementation of the proposed Project are identified and discussed. The Project’s potential contributions to global climate change impacts are identified, together with energy and resource conservation measures that have been incorporated into the Project to reduce impacts. GHG emission calculations prepared for the proposed Project are provided in Appendix B.2 of this Draft EIR. The proper context for addressing this issue in an EIR is as a discussion of cumulative impacts, because although the emissions of one single project will not cause global climate change, GHG emissions from multiple projects throughout the world could result in a cumulative impact with respect to global climate change. In turn, global climate change has the potential to result in rising sea levels, which can inundate low‐ lying areas; to affect rainfall and snowfall, leading to changes in water supply; to affect habitat, leading to adverse effects on biological resources; and to result in other effects. Given the nature of environmental consequences from GHGs and global climate change, CEQA requires that lead agencies consider evaluating the cumulative impacts of GHGs, even relatively small (on a global basis) additions. Small contributions to this cumulative impact (from which significant effects are occurring and are expected to worsen over time) may be potentially considerable and therefore significant. This section presents a discussion of existing climate conditions, the current state of climate change science, and GHG emissions sources in California; a summary of applicable regulations; and a description of Project‐generated GHG emissions and their contribution to global climate change. 2. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING a. Regulatory Framework (1) Federal Regulations In 2007, the US Supreme Court ruled in Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency that GHGs are air pollutants covered under the Clean Air Act (CAA). Since the EPA is responsible for overseeing compliance with the CAA, emissions of GHGs fall under the jurisdiction of the EPA, which is therefore obligated to regulate them. As of January 2, 2011, the EPA requires GHG analyses to be performed as part of permitting requirements for projects which are currently undergoing the permitting process. On May 19, 2009, President Obama announced a new Federal policy “aimed at both increasing fuel economy and reducing GHG pollution for all new cars and trucks sold in the United States.” The policy proposed fuel efficiency standards that apply to model years 2012 through 2016. These standards will result in a reduction of approximately 900 million metric tons of GHG.
IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS B. AIR QUALITY AND GREENHOUSE GASES 2. GREENHOUSE GASES
1. INTRODUCTION
This section describes current Federal, State, and local regulations and programs that have beenimplementedtoaddressgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandglobalclimatechangeinCaliforniaandtheLosAngelesregion. InventoriesofGHGemissionsassociatedwithimplementationoftheproposedProjectareidentified and discussed. The Project’s potential contributions to global climate change impacts areidentified, togetherwithenergyandresourceconservationmeasuresthathavebeenincorporated intotheProject to reduce impacts. GHG emission calculations prepared for the proposedProject are provided inAppendixB.2ofthisDraftEIR.
The proper context for addressing this issue in an EIR is as a discussion of cumulative impacts, becausealthough the emissions of one single project will not cause global climate change, GHG emissions frommultipleprojects throughout theworld could result ina cumulative impactwith respect toglobal climatechange.Inturn,globalclimatechangehasthepotentialtoresultinrisingsealevels,whichcaninundatelow‐lyingareas; toaffect rainfall andsnowfall, leading tochanges inwater supply; toaffecthabitat, leading toadverse effects on biological resources; and to result in other effects. Given the nature of environmentalconsequences fromGHGsandglobalclimatechange,CEQArequires that leadagenciesconsiderevaluatingthecumulativeimpactsofGHGs,evenrelativelysmall(onaglobalbasis)additions. Smallcontributionstothiscumulativeimpact(fromwhichsignificanteffectsareoccurringandareexpectedtoworsenovertime)may be potentially considerable and therefore significant. This section presents a discussion of existingclimateconditions, thecurrentstateofclimatechangescience,andGHGemissionssources inCalifornia;asummary of applicable regulations; and a description of Project‐generated GHG emissions and theircontributiontoglobalclimatechange.
2. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING
a. Regulatory Framework
(1) Federal Regulations
In2007,theUSSupremeCourtruledinMassachusettsv.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencythatGHGsareairpollutantscoveredundertheCleanAirAct(CAA). SincetheEPAisresponsibleforoverseeingcompliancewith the CAA, emissions of GHGs fall under the jurisdiction of the EPA, which is therefore obligated toregulatethem.AsofJanuary2,2011,theEPArequiresGHGanalysestobeperformedaspartofpermittingrequirementsforprojectswhicharecurrentlyundergoingthepermittingprocess.
OnMay19,2009,PresidentObamaannouncedanewFederalpolicy“aimedatbothincreasingfueleconomyandreducingGHGpollutionforallnewcarsandtruckssoldintheUnitedStates.”Thepolicyproposedfuelefficiency standards that apply to model years 2012 through 2016. These standards will result in areductionofapproximately900millionmetrictonsofGHG.
On April 23, 2009, EPA published its Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings forGreenhouse Gases under the CCA (Endangerment Finding) in the Federal Register. The EndangermentFindingisbasedonSection202(a)oftheCAA,whichstatesthattheAdministrator(ofEPA)shouldregulateanddevelopstandards for“emission[s]ofairpollution fromanyclassorclassesofnewmotorvehiclesornew motor vehicle engines, which in [its] judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution which mayreasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.” The proposed rule addresses Section202(a)intwodistinctfindings. ThefirstaddresseswhetherornottheconcentrationsofthesixkeyGHGs(i.e.,CO2,CH4,N2O,HFCs,perflurorocarbons[PFCs],andSF6)intheatmospherethreatenthepublichealthand welfare of current and future generations. The second addresses whether or not the combinedemissions of GHGs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to atmosphericconcentrationsofGHGsandthereforethethreatofclimatechange.
TheAdministratorproposedthefindingthatatmosphericconcentrationsofGHGsendangerthepublichealthandwelfarewithinthemeaningofSection202(a)oftheCCA.Theevidencesupportingthisfindingconsistsofhumanactivityresultingin“highatmosphericlevels”ofGHGemissions,whichareverylikelyresponsibleforincreasesinaveragetemperaturesandotherclimaticchanges.Furthermore,theobservedandprojectedresults of climate change (e.g., higher likelihood of heat waves, wildfires, droughts, sea level rise, higherintensitystorms)areathreattothepublichealthandwelfare.Therefore,GHGswerefoundtoendangerthepublichealthandwelfareofcurrentandfuturegenerations.
TheAdministratoralsoproposedthefindingthatGHGemissionsfromnewmotorvehiclesandmotorvehicleengines are contributing to air pollution,which is endangering public health andwelfare. The proposedfindingcites that in2006,motorvehicleswere the second largest contributor todomesticGHGemissions(24%of total)behindelectricitygeneration. Furthermore, in2005, theUnitedStateswas responsible for18%of globalGHG emissions. Therefore, GHG emissions frommotor vehicles andmotor vehicle engineswerefoundtocontributetoairpollutionthatendangerspublichealthandwelfare.
(2) State Regulations
In response togrowing scientific andpolitical concern regardingglobal climate change, in the lastdecadeCaliforniahaspromulgateda series of executiveorders, laws, and regulationsaimedat reducingboth thelevelofGHGs in theatmosphereandemissionsofGHGs fromcommercialandprivateactivitieswithin theState.
InSeptember2002,GovernorGrayDavis signedAssemblyBill (AB)1493, requiring thedevelopmentandadoption of regulations to achieve “the maximum feasible reduction of greenhouse gases” emitted bynoncommercial passenger vehicles, light‐duty trucks, and other vehicles used primarily for personaltransportationintheState.Itshouldbenotedthatsettingemissionstandardsonautomobilesissolelytheresponsibility of the Federal EPA. The Federal Clean Air Act allows States to set state‐specific emissionstandardsonautomobiles if they firstobtainawaiver fromtheU.S.EPA. TheU.S.EPAdeniedCalifornia’srequest for a waiver, thus delaying CARB’s proposed implementation schedule for setting emissionstandardsonautomobiles tohelp reduceGHGs. After the change inpresidential administrations in2009,however,EPAwasdirected toreexamine itsposition fordenialofCalifornia’sCAAwaiverand for itspastoppositiontoGHGemissionsregulation.CaliforniareceivedthewaiveronJune30,2009.
In June2005,GovernorSchwarzeneggersignedExecutiveOrderS‐3‐05,whichproclaims thatCalifornia isvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.ItdeclaresthatincreasedtemperaturescouldreducetheSierraNevada snowpack, further exacerbateCalifornia’s airqualityproblems, andpotentially cause a rise in sealevel. Tocombatthoseconcerns, theExecutiveOrderestablishedtotalGHGemissiontargets. Specifically,emissionsaretobereducedtothe2000levelby2010,the1990levelby2020,andto80%belowthe1990level by 2050. The order directed the Secretary for the California EPA to report every two years on theState’sprogresstowardmeetingtheGovernor’sGHGemissionreductiontargets.AsaresultofthisExecutiveOrder,theCaliforniaClimateActionTeam(CAT),ledbytheSecretaryoftheCaliforniaEPA,wasformed.TheCAT ismadeupof representatives fromanumberof State agencies andwas formed to implementglobalwarmingemissionreductionprogramsandreportontheprogressmadetowardmeetingstatewidetargetsestablished under the Executive Order. State agencymembers include the Business, Transportation andHousingAgency;Department of Food andAgriculture;ResourcesAgency;AirResourcesBoard; CaliforniaEnergy Commission; the Public Utilities Commission; and Department of Water Resources. The CATpublisheditsClimateActionTeamReporttoGovernorSchwarzeneggerandtheLegislatureinMarch2006,inwhich it laidout46specificemissionreductionstrategies forreducingGHGemissionsandreachingthetargetsestablishedintheExecutiveOrder.
Toachievethesegoals,AB32mandatesthatCARBestablishaquantifiedemissionscap,instituteascheduletoachievethecap,implementregulationstoreducestatewideGHGemissionsfromstationarysources,anddevelop tracking, reporting, and enforcement mechanisms to ensure that reductions are achieved. ThefollowingscheduleoutlinestheCARBactionsmandatedbyAB32:
ByJanuary1,2008,CARBadoptsregulationsformandatoryGHGemissionsreporting,defines1990emissionsbaseline forCalifornia (including emissions from importedpower), and adopts it as the2020statewidecap. The2020emissionscapwassetat427millionmetric tonsofcarbondioxideequivalents(MMTCO2e).
By January 1, 2011, CARB completes major rulemakings for reducing GHGs, including marketmechanisms.CARBmayreviseandadoptnewrulesafterJanuary1,2011toachievethe2020goal.
By January 1, 2012, GHG rules andmarketmechanisms adopted by CARB take effect and becomelegallyenforceable.
CARB’s listofdiscrete early actionmeasures tobeadoptedand implementedbefore January1,2010wasapprovedon June21, 2007, and focused onmajor State‐wide contributing sources and industries, not onindividualdevelopmentprojectsorpractices. Theseearlyactionmeasuresincluded:(1)a low‐carbonfuelstandard;(2)reductionofrefrigerant losses frommotorvehicleairconditioningsystemmaintenance;and(3)increasedmethanecapturefromlandfills.
Recently,CARBreleasedemissionsinventoryestimatesfor2000through2008.2Theinventoryshowsthatasof2008,transportationwasthelargestsinglesectorgeneratingcarbondioxide,responsiblefor37percentofthe state’s total emissions, largely (73 percent) from passenger vehicles. Transportation is followed byindustrialemissions,19percent;importedelectricity,13percent;in‐stateelectricitygeneration,12percent;residentialuse,6percent;agriculture,6percent;andcommercialuses,3percent.Statewideemissionsasawhole,andnotindividualsectors,arerequiredunderAB32tomeetthe2020emissionscap.
AcompanionbilltoAB32,SenateBill(SB)1368,requirestheCaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommission(PUC)and California Energy Commission (CEC) to establish GHG emission performance standards for thegenerationof electricity. These standardswill alsogenerallyapply topowergeneratedoutsideCaliforniaand imported into the State. SB 1368 provides a mechanism for reducing the emissions of electricityproviders, thereby assisting ARB in meeting its mandate under AB 32. On January 25, 2007, the CPUCadopted an interim GHG Emissions Performance Standard (EPS), which is a facility‐based emissionsstandardrequiringallnewlong‐termcommitmentsforbaseloadgenerationtoserveCaliforniaconsumerstobegrantedonly topowerplantswithGHGemissionsnogreater thana combined cycle gas turbineplant.Thatlevelisestablishedat1,100poundsofcarbondioxide(CO2)permegawatt‐hour(MW/hr).Further,onMay23,2007,theCECadoptedregulationsthatestablishandimplementanidenticalEPSof1,100poundsofCO2perMW/hr(seeCECorderNo.07‐523‐7).
AnadditionalbillrelatedtoAB32,SB97wasadoptedinAugust2007andrequirestheCaliforniaOfficeofPlanningandResearch(OPR)toprepare,develop,andtransmittotheResourcesAgencyguidelinesforthefeasiblemitigationofGHGemissionsortheeffectsofGHGemissions,asrequiredbyCEQA,includingbutnotlimitedto,effectsassociatedwithtransportationorenergyconsumption.OPRtransmittedtheseguidelinesbytheJuly1,2009deadline,theResourcesAgencycertifiedandadoptedtheguidelinespriortotheJanuary1,2010deadline,andtheguidelineswentintoeffectinMarch2010.TheResourcesAgencywillberequiredto periodically update the guidelines to incorporate new information or criteria established by the CARBpursuant to AB32.3 OPR does not identify a threshold of significance for GHG emissions, nor has itprescribed assessmentmethodologies or specificmitigationmeasures. The amendments encourage leadagencies to considermany factorswhenperforming aCEQA analysis, butpreserve thediscretion granted
2 California Environmental Protection Agency, Air Resources Board, “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data ‐ 2000 to 2008,”
under CEQA to lead agencies to make their own determinations based on substantial evidence. Theamendmentsalsoencouragepublicagenciestomakeusethroughtieringofprogrammaticmitigationplansandprogramswhenperformingindividualprojectanalyses.
Executive Order S‐1‐07, which was signed by Governor Schwarzenegger in 2007, proclaims that thetransportationsectoristhemainsourceofGHGemissionsinCalifornia,atover40%ofstatewideemissions.ItestablishesagoalthatthecarbonintensityoftransportationfuelssoldinCaliforniashouldbereducedbyaminimumof 10%by 2020. This order also directedARB to determine if this LowCarbon Fuel StandardcouldbeadoptedasadiscreteearlyactionmeasureaftermeetingthemandatesinAB32.ARBadoptedtheLowCarbonFuelStandardonApril23,2009.
SB 1078 (Chapter 516, Statutes of 2002) requires retail sellers of electricity, including investor‐ownedutilitiesandcommunitychoiceaggregators,toprovideatleast20%oftheirsupplyfromrenewablesourcesby 2017. SB 107 (Chapter 464, Statutes of 2006) changed the target date to 2010. In November 2008,Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S‐14‐08, which expands the state's Renewable EnergyStandardto33%renewablepowerby2020.
InNovember2008,theCaliforniaBuildingStandardsCommissionestablishedtheCaliforniaGreenBuildingStandards Code (CALGreen) which sets performance standards for residential and nonresidentialdevelopmenttoreduceenvironmentalimpactsandencouragesustainableconstructionpractices.WhentheCALGreenCodewentintoeffectin2009,compliancethrough2010wasvoluntary.AsofJanuary1,2011,theCALGreenCodeismandatoryforallnewbuildingsconstructedintheState. TheCalGreenCodeaddressesenergy efficiency, water conservation, material conservation, planning and design, and overallenvironmentalquality.4
(3) Regional Regulations
TherehasalsobeenCalifornialegislativeactivityacknowledgingtherelationshipbetweenlanduseplanningandtransportationsectorGHGemissions. CaliforniaSenateBill375,signedonSeptember30,2008,alignsregionaltransportationplanningefforts,regionalGHGemissionreductiontargets,andlanduseandhousingallocation. SB 375 requires Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to adopt a SustainableCommunitiesStrategy(SCS)orAlternativePlanningStrategy(APS),whichwillprescribelanduseallocationin that MPO’s Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). ARB, in consultation with MPOs, will provide eachaffectedregionwithreductiontargetsforGHGsemittedbypassengercarsandlighttrucksintheregionfortheyears2020and2035. These reduction targetswillbeupdatedeveryeightyears,but canbeupdatedevery four years if advancements in emissions technologies affect the reduction strategies to achieve thetargets.ARBisalsochargedwithreviewingeachMPO’sSCSorAPSforconsistencywithitsassignedtargets.IfMPOsdonotmeettheGHGemissionreductiontargets, transportationprojectswouldnotbeeligible forfundingprogrammedafterJanuary1,2012.
This bill also extends theminimum time period for the RegionalHousingNeeds Allocation (RNHA) cyclefromfiveyearstoeightyearsforlocalgovernmentslocatedwithinanMPOthatmeetscertainrequirements.CityorCountylandusepolicies(includinggeneralplans)arenotrequiredtobeconsistentwiththeRTP(and
associated SCS or APS). However, new provisions of CEQA would incentivize qualified projects that areconsistentwithanapprovedSCSorAPS,categorizedas“transitpriorityprojects.”
InAugust2010,CARBreleasedthedraftCEQAFunctionalEquivalentDocument(FED)whichproposesGHGemissionreductiontargetsspecifictoeachMPO.TheCARBrecognizesthatGHGreductionmeasuresmaybeunique to certain areas of California where GHG reduction measures in one area may not be feasible inanother. TheProject is locatedintheSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments(SCAG)MPO,whichhasproposedregionalGHGreductiontargetsasrequiredunderSB375.Recently,SCAGproposedagoalofreducingpercapitaGHGsemissionsby8percentforYear2020and13percentforYear2035comparedtoYear2005.ThesereductiongoalswouldbeincorporatedintothenextversionoftheRTP,whichisexpectedto be adopted in 2012. Projects going through the CEQA process would be required to demonstrateconsistency with SCAG (RTP) policies including specified GHG reduction targets. Additionally, SCAG iscurrentlydevelopinganSCSplantomeetemissionreductiontargets.OnegoaloftheSCSplaniscompliancewith the provisions of SB 375 by establishing a reduction target for cars and light trucks. This plan iscurrentlyindevelopmentandisexpectedtobefinalizedin2012,aspartofthenextRTP.
Although CARB and SCAG are tasked with setting GHG reduction targets, there is no regional agencyresponsible for the regulation of GHG emissions related to global climate change. The South Coast AirQuality Management District (SCAQMD) is the agency principally responsible for comprehensive airpollutioncontrol in theSouthCoastAirBasin (SoCAB),whichencompassesOrangeCountyand theurbanportionsofLosAngeles,Riverside,andSanBernardinocounties. AlthoughtheSCAQMDisresponsible forregional air quality planning efforts, it does not have the authority to directly regulate factors leading toglobal climate change or GHG emission issues associated with plans and new development projectsthroughouttheSoCAB.InordertoprovideGHGemissionanalysisguidancetothelocaljurisdictionswithinthe SoCAB, the SCAQMDhas organized aWorkingGroup to developGHG emission analysis guidance andthresholds. OnDecember5,2008,theSCAQMDGoverningBoardadoptedthestaffproposalforaninterimGHGsignificancethresholdforstationarysource/industrialprojectswheretheSCAQMDisleadagency,withthegoalofachievinga90percentemissioncapturerate.ThisgoalwasdeterminedbySCAQMDstafftobemoreappropriatetoaddressthelong‐termadverseimpactsassociatedwithglobalclimatechangebecausemostprojectswillberequiredtoimplementGHGreductionmeasures.Further,itwasdeterminedthata90percentemissioncapture rate sets theemission threshold lowenough to capturea substantial fractionoffuturestationarysourceprojectsthatwillbeconstructedtoaccommodatefuturestatewidepopulationandeconomic growth,while setting the emission threshold high enough to exclude small projects thatwill inaggregate contribute a relatively small fraction of the cumulative statewide GHG emissions. Once CARBadopts the statewide significance thresholds, SCAQMD staff will report back to the Board regarding anyrecommendedchangesoradditionstotheSCAQMD’sinterimthreshold.
To achieve the same policy objective of capturing 90 percent of GHG emissions from new developmentprojectsintheresidential/commercialsectorsandimplementa“fairshare”approachtoreducingemissionincreases from each sector, SCAQMD staff discussed with the Working Group a proposal combiningperformance standards and screening thresholds. The performance standards primarily focus on energyefficiency measures beyond Title 24 and a screening level of 3,000metric tons of CO2‐equivalent5 gases
annually(MTCO2eq/yr)basedontherelativeGHGemissionscontributionbetweenresidential/commercialsectors and stationary source (industrial) sectors. SCAQMD staff determined that additional analysis isneeded to further define the performance standards and to coordinate with CARB staff’s interim GHGproposal.
(4) Local Regulations
InacknowledgmentoftheoverlapbetweenlanduseandGHGemissions,theCityofLosAngelespublishedGreenLA,AnActionPlantoLeadtheNationinFightingGlobalWarming6(LAGreenPlan),outliningthegoalsandactions theCityhasestablished to reduce thegenerationandemissionofGHGs frombothpublicandprivate activities. According to the LA Green Plan, the City of Los Angeles is committed to the goal ofreducingemissionsofCO2to35percentbelow1990levels.Toachievethis,theCitywill:
Toachievegoalsoutlined in theLAGreenPlan, theCityofLosAngelesadoptedand recentlymodified itsgreenbuilding ordinance, consistentwith the provisions of theCALGreenCode, to address the impact onclimatechangefromnewdevelopment.Ordinances181479and181480establishtheGreenBuildingCode,wherebyprovisionsshallapply to theconstructionofeverynewbuilding,everybuildingalterationwithabuilding permit valuation of over $200,000, and every building addition, unless otherwise indicatedthroughout theMunicipal Code. Mandatorymeasures include encouraging the introduction of renewableenergy,reducingenergyandwaterusage,andencouragingrecyclingandwastereduction.Applicabilityandtargetshavebeenspecifiedforamultitudeofland‐usesincludinghigh‐riseresidentialbuildings(thoseoversixstories)andallnon‐residentialbuildings,suchasthoseproposedontheProjectsite.
b. Existing Conditions
(1) Regional Context
GlobalclimatechangereferstochangesinaverageclimaticconditionsonEarthasawhole,includingchangesin temperature, wind patterns, precipitation and storms. Historical records indicate that global climatechangeshaveoccurred in thepastdue tonaturalphenomena;however currentdata increasingly indicatethat the current global conditionsdiffer frompast climate changes in rateandmagnitude. Global climatechangeattributabletoanthropogenic(human)GHGemissionsofiscurrentlyoneofthemostimportantandwidelydebatedscientific, economicandpolitical issues in theUnitedStatesand theworld. Theextent towhich increased concentrations of GHGs have caused or will cause climate change and the appropriateactions to limit and/or respond to climate change are the subject of significant and rapidly evolvingregulatoryeffortsatthefederalandstatelevelsofgovernment.
GHGsarethosecompoundsintheEarth’satmospherewhichplayacriticalroleindeterminingtemperaturenear theEarth’s surface. Morespecifically, thesegasesallowhigh‐frequencyshortwavesolar radiation toentertheEarth’satmosphere,butretainsomeofthelowfrequencyinfraredenergywhichisradiatedbackfromtheEarthtowardsspace,resultinginawarmingoftheatmosphere.GHGsincludeCO2,methane(CH4),ozone (O3), water vapor, nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), andsulfurhexafluoride(SF6).CarbondioxideisthemostabundantGHGintheatmosphere.GHGsaretheresultof both natural and anthropogenic activities,with the primary sources of emissions being transportation,consumptionoffossilfuelsforpowergeneration,industrialprocesses,forestfires,decomposition,landfills,andheatingandcooking.
NotallGHGspossessthesameabilitytoinduceclimatechange;asaresult,GHGcontributionsarecommonlyquantified in the equivalentmass of CO2, denoted as CO2e. Mass emissions are calculated by convertingpollutant specific emissions to CO2e emissions by applying the proper global warming potential (GWP)value.7TheseGWPratiosareavailablefromtheU.S.EPAandarepublishedintheCaliforniaClimateActionRegistry(CCAR)GeneralReportingProtocol.ByapplyingtheGWPratios,Project‐relatedCO2eemissionscanbetabulatedinmetrictonsperyear.TheCO2evaluesarecalculatedforconstructionyearsaswellasexistingandProjectbuild‐outconditions inorder togenerateanet change inGHGemissions forconstructionandoperation.
(2) Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Worldwide anthropogenic emissions of GHGs were approximately 40,000 million metric tons of CO2e,includingongoingemissionsfromindustrialandagriculturalsources,butexcludingemissionsfromlandusechanges(i.e.,deforestation,biomassdecay)(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[IPCC],2007).CO2emissionsfromfossilfueluseaccountsfor56.6percentofthetotalemissionsof49,000millionmetrictonsCO2e (includes landuse changes) and all CO2 emissions are76.7percent of the total. Methane emissionsaccountfor14.3percentandN2Oemissionsfor7.9percent(IPCC,2007).8
TotalU.S.GHGemissions in2008were6,958millionmetric tonsCO2e,orabout14percentofworldwideGHGemissions.9Overall, totalU.S. emissionshave risenby14percent from1990 to2008. However,U.S.emissions decreased by 2.9 percent (211.3MMTCO2e) between 2007 and 2008, due in large part to therecordhighcostsofpetroleumfuelsthatoccurredin2008.Electricitydemanddeclinedin2008forthesamereason. The primary GHG emitted as the result of human activities in the United States was CO2,representingapproximately85.1percentoftotalGHGemissions.10ThelargestsourceofCO2,andofoverallGHGemissions,wasfossilfuelcombustion.Methane(CH4)emissions,whichhavedeclinedfrom1990levels,resultedprimarilyfromentericfermentationassociatedwithdomesticlivestock,decompositionofwastesinlandfills,andnaturalgassystems. Agriculturalsoilmanagementandmobilesource fossil fuelcombustionwerethemajorsourcesofN2Oemissions.TheemissionsofsubstitutesforozonedepletingsubstancesandemissionsofHFC‐23(trifluoromethaneorCHF3)duringtheproductionofHCFC‐22(chlorodifluoromethane
or CHClF2) were the primary contributors to aggregate HFC (hydrofluorocarbon) emissions. ElectricaltransmissionanddistributionsystemsaccountedformostSF6(sodiumhexafluoride)emissions,whilePFC(perfluorocarbons)emissionsresulted fromsemiconductormanufacturingandasaby‐productofprimaryaluminumproduction.11
The residential andcommercial end‐use sectorsaccounted for21percentand19percent, respectively,ofCO2emissions from fossil fuel combustion in2008.12Both sectors reliedheavilyonelectricity formeetingenergy demands, with 71 and 79 percent, respectively, of their emissions attributable to electricityconsumptionforlighting,heating,cooling,andoperatingappliances.Theremainingemissionswereduetothe consumption of natural gas and petroleum for heating and cooking. California is a substantialcontributor of global GHGs as it is the second largest contributor in the United States and the sixteenthlargest in the world (AEP, 2007). Based upon the 2008 GHG inventory data (the latest year available)compiled by the CARB (CARB, 2008), California produced 474 MMT CO2e. The major source of GHG inCaliforniaistransportation,contributing37percentofthestate’stotalGHGemissions.Electricitygenerationis thesecondlargestsource,contributing25percentof thestate’sGHGemissions(CARB,2008). Most,85percent,ofCalifornia’s2008GHGemissions(intermsofCO2e)werecarbondioxideproducedfromfossilfuelcombustion,with2.5percent fromother sourcesofCO2,6.0percent frommethane, and2.8percent fromnitrousoxide(CARB,2008).Californiaemissionsaredueinparttoitslargesizeandlargepopulation.
(3) Effects of Global Climate Change
The scientific community’s understanding of the fundamental processes responsible for global climatechangehas improvedover the past decade, and its predictive capabilities are advancing. However, thereremain significant scientific uncertainties, for example, in predictions of local effects of climate change,occurrence of extreme weather events, effects of aerosols, changes in clouds, shifts in the intensity anddistribution of precipitation, and changes in oceanic circulation. Due to the enormous complexity of theEarth’s climate system, the uncertainty surrounding climate changemay never be completely eliminated.Becauseoftheseuncertainties,therecontinuestobesignificantdebateoverwhichincreasedconcentrationsof GHGs are responsible for climate change, and over the appropriate actions to limit and/or respond toclimatechange.
The IPCC, in its Fourth Assessment Report (FAR), stated that “it is likely that there has been significantanthropogenicwarmingoverthepast50years.”13However,itisimpossibletoidentifyasingledevelopmentprojectasthecauseoffuturespecificclimatechangeimpactsduetotheglobalnatureofclimatechange.AlsointheFAR,theIPCCholdsthattheimpactsoffutureclimatechangewillvaryacrossregions.While“large‐scaleclimateeventshavethepotentialtocauseverylargeimpacts,”theimpactsoffutureclimatechangewillbemixedacrossregions.
According to theCARB, someof thepotential impacts inCaliforniaof globalwarmingmay include loss insnowpack,sealevelrise,moreextremeheatdaysperyear,morehighozonedays,morelargeforest fires,andmoredroughtyears(ARB,2007). BelowisasummaryofsomeofthepotentialeffectsreportedbyanarrayofstudiesthatcouldbeexperiencedinCaliforniaasaresultofglobalwarmingandclimatechange:
Air Quality. Higher temperatures, conducive to air pollution formation, could worsen air quality inCalifornia. Climatechangemayincreasetheconcentrationofground‐levelozone,butthemagnitudeoftheeffect, and therefore, its indirect effects, are uncertain. If higher temperatures are accompanied by drierconditions,thepotentialforlargewildfirescouldincrease,which,inturn,wouldfurtherworsenairquality.However, ifhighertemperaturesareaccompaniedbywetter,ratherthandrierconditions,therainswouldtend to temporarily clear the air of particulate pollution and reduce the incidence of largewildfires, thusameliorating the pollution associated with wildfires. Additionally, severe heat accompanied by drierconditions and poor air quality could increase the number of heat‐related deaths, illnesses, and asthmaattacksthroughoutthestate(CEC,February2006).
WaterSupply. Uncertaintyremainswithrespect to theoverall impactofglobalclimatechangeon futurewater supplies inCalifornia. Studieshave found that, “Considerable uncertainty aboutprecise impacts ofclimate change on California hydrology andwater resourceswill remain untilwe havemore precise andconsistentinformationabouthowprecipitationpatterns,timing,andintensitywillchange.”(Kiparskyetal.2003). For example, some studies identify little change in total annual precipitation in projections forCalifornia (California Climate Change Center, 2008). Other studies show significantlymore precipitation(ClimateChangeandCaliforniaWaterResources[(DWR2006)]). Evenassumingthatclimatechangeleadstolong‐termincreasesinprecipitation,analysisoftheimpactofclimatechangeisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatnostudieshaveidentifiedorquantifiedtherunoffimpactssuchanincreaseinprecipitationwouldhave inparticularwatersheds.14 Also, little is knownabouthowgroundwater rechargeandwaterqualitywillbeaffected(Ibid.). Higherrainfallcouldleadtogreatergroundwaterrecharge,althoughreductionsinspringrunoffandhigherevapotranspirationcouldreducetheamountofwateravailableforrecharge(Ibid.).
The California Department ofWater Resources (DWR 2006) report on climate change and effects on theStateWaterProject(SWP),theCentralValleyProject,andtheSacramento‐SanJoaquinDelta,concludesthat“[c]climatechangewilllikelyhaveasignificanteffectonCalifornia’sfuturewaterresources...[and]futurewaterdemand.”Italsoreportsthat“muchuncertaintyaboutfuturewaterdemand[remains],especially[for]thoseaspectsoffuturedemandthatwillbedirectlyaffectedbyclimatechangeandwarming.Whileclimatechangeisexpectedtocontinuethroughatleasttheendofthiscentury,themagnitudeand,insomecases,thenature of future changes is uncertain” (DWR, 2006). The relationship between climate change and itspotentialeffectonwaterdemandisnotwellunderstood(DWR,2006).DWRaddsthat“[i]tisunlikelythatthislevelofuncertaintywilldiminishsignificantlyintheforeseeablefuture.”Still,changesinwatersupplyareexpectedtooccur,andmanyregionalstudieshaveshownthat largechangesinthereliabilityofwateryields fromreservoirscouldresult fromonlysmall changes in inflows (Kiparsky2003;DWR2005;Cayan2006,Cayan,D.,etal,2006).
Hydrology. Asdiscussed above, climate changes couldpotentially affect: the amountof snowfall, rainfallandsnowpack;theintensityandfrequencyofstorms;floodhydrographs(flashfloods,rainorsnowevents,coincidentalhigh tideandhighrunoffevents); sea level riseandcoastal flooding;coastalerosion;and thepotential for salt water intrusion. Sea level rise can be a product of global warming through twomainprocesses:expansionofseawaterastheoceanswarm,andmeltingoficeoverland.Ariseinsealevelscouldresult in coastal flooding and erosion and could jeopardize California’s water supply. Increased stormintensityand frequencycouldaffect theabilityof flood‐control facilities, including levees, tohandlestormevents.
Agriculture. California has a $30billion agricultural industry thatproduceshalf the country’s fruits andvegetables. Higher CO2 levels can stimulate plant production and increase plant water‐use efficiency.However, if temperaturesriseanddrierconditionsprevail,waterdemandcouldincrease;crop‐yieldcouldbe threatened by a less reliable water supply; and greater ozone pollution could render plants moresusceptibletopestanddiseaseoutbreaks.Inaddition,temperatureincreasescouldchangethetimeofyearcertaincrops,suchaswinegrapes,bloomorripen,andthusaffecttheirquality(CCCC,2006).
EcosystemsandWildlife.Increasesinglobaltemperaturesandthepotentialresultingchangesinweatherpatterns could have ecological effects on a global and local scale. Increasing concentrations of GHGs arelikelytoacceleratetherateofclimatechange.Scientistsexpectthattheaverageglobalsurfacetemperaturecould rise 1.0‐4.5°F (0.6‐ 2.5°C) in the next fifty years, and 2.2‐10°F (1.4‐5.8°C) in the next century,withsignificant regional variation (EPA 2000). Soilmoisture is likely to decline inmany regions, and intenserainstormsarelikelytobecomemorefrequent. SealevelcouldriseasmuchastwofeetalongmostoftheU.S.coast.Risingtemperaturescouldhavefourmajorimpactsonplantsandanimals:(1)timingofecologicalevents; (2) geographic range; (3) species’ compositionwithin communities; and (4) ecosystem processessuchascarboncyclingandstorage(Parmesan,2004;Parmesan,C.andH.Galbraith2004.)
Anindividualproject(unlessitisamassiveconstructionproject,suchasadamoranewfreewayproject,oralargefossil‐fuelfiredpowerplant)doesnotgeneratesufficientGHGemissionstodirectlyinfluenceglobalclimate change; therefore, the issue of global climate change typically involves an analysis of whether aproject’s contribution to a cumulative impact is cumulatively considerable. “Cumulatively considerable”meansthattheincrementaleffectsofanindividualprojectaresignificantwhenviewedinconnectionwiththeeffectsofpastprojects,othercurrentprojects,andprobablefutureprojects.Thefollowingisagood‐faitheffort atdisclosing thenatureof theProject’spotential effectwith regard toGHGemissions, andsuggestsappropriatemeasurestoreducethoseemissions.
a. Significance Thresholds
TheCityofLosAngelesCEQAThresholdsGuidedoesnotcontainsignificancethresholdsorcriteriaforuseinevaluating environmental impacts related to GHG emissions. Appendix G of the State CEQA Guidelinesprovides sample checklist questions for use in an Initial Study to determine a project’s potential forenvironmental impacts. The most recent amendments relating to climate change and GHG emissionsencourageleadagenciestoconsidermanyfactorsinperformingaCEQAanalysis,butpreservethediscretiongrantedbyCEQAtoleadagenciesinmakingtheirowndeterminationsbasedonsubstantialevidence. TheamendmentsaugmentedAppendixGoftheStateCEQAGuidelines,thesampleenvironmentalchecklistform,to include a section on greenhouse gas emissions. The Guideline amendments suggested the followingquestions:
Conflict with any applicable plan, policy or regulation of an agency adopted for the purpose ofreducingtheemissionsofgreenhousegases?
Section 15064.7 of the State CEQA Guidelines defines a threshold of significance as an identifiablequantitative, qualitativeorperformance level of a particular environmental effect, compliancewithwhichdeterminesthelevelofimpactsignificance.CEQAgiveswidelatitudetoleadagenciesindeterminingwhatimpacts are significant and does not prescribe thresholds of significance, analytical methodologies, orspecificmitigationmeasures.CEQAleavesthedeterminationofsignificancetothereasonablediscretionofthe lead agency and encourages lead agencies to develop and publish thresholds of significance to use indetermining the significance of environmental effects. However, neither the SCAQMDnor theCity of LosAngeleshasyetestablishedspecificquantitativesignificancethresholdsforGHGemissionsforresidentialorcommercialprojects.InthelatestCEQAGuidelinesamendments,whichwentintoeffectonMarch18,2010,OPRencouragesleadagenciestomakeuseofprogrammaticmitigationplansandprogramsfromwhichtotierwhentheyperformindividualprojectanalyses.However,theCityofLosAngeleshasnotyetdevelopedaGreenhouseReductionPlanmeetingtherequirementssetforthinthelatestOPRguidelines.
As discussed in subsection 2.a, Regulatory Framework, SCAG has proposed draft GHG reduction targetsapplicabletolandusedecisions,suchastheproposedProject.InaccordancewithSCAG’sproposedtargets,aproject’simpactswillbeconsideredsignificantif:
ToachievethegoalsofAB32,whicharetiedtomassGHGemissionlevelsofaspecificbenchmarkyear(i.e.,1990),Californiawouldhavetoachievealowerrateofemissionsperunitofpopulation(perperson)and/orper level of economic activity (e.g., per job) than its current rate. Furthermore, to accommodate futurepopulationandeconomicgrowth,thestatewouldhavetoachieveanevenlowerrateofemissionsperunitthanitachievedin1990.Thegoal—toachieve1990quantitiesofGHGemissionsby2020—willneedtobeaccomplisheddespite30yearsofpopulationandeconomicgrowthbeyond1990.Forthisreason,landusesneedtobeGHG“efficient”toattainAB32goalswhileaccommodatingpopulationandjobgrowth.CAPCOAand the State of California’s Attorney General recognize that potential GHG impacts are exclusivelycumulativeinnature.Therefore,variousregulatoryagenciesincludingtheAttorneyGeneral’soffice,CARB,andtheCityofLosAngelesrecommendthatleadagenciesrequiresomelevelofmitigationevenforprojectsthatresult inGHGemissionsthatare lessthanatargetthreshold. InSeptember2010,CAPCOAreleasedaguidance document titledQuantifyingGreenhouseGasMitigationMeasures which provides GHG reductionvalues for recommendedmitigationmeasures. Accordingly, a projectwould have significant impactwithrespecttoitscontributiontothecumulativeimpactofglobalclimatechangeif:
GHG‐2 Theprojectdoesnotresultinemissionsbelowthereductiontargets(GHG‐1above)anddoesnotimplement design and operational strategies consistent with an applicable plan, policy orregulation.
CCARhaspreparedtheGeneralReportingProtocol(GRP)forcalculatingandreportingGHGemissionsfroma number of general and industry‐specific activities.15 No specific protocols are available for land useprojects, so the CCAR GRP has been adapted to address GHG emissions from the proposed Project. Theinformationprovided in this section is consistentwith theCCARGRP’sminimumreporting requirements.The CCAR GRP recommends the separation of GHG emissions into three categories that reflect differentaspectsofownershiporcontroloveremissions.Theyinclude:
Scope3: Indirect emissions associated with other emissions sources, such as third‐partyvehiclesandembodiedenergy.16
CARBbelieves that consideration of so‐called indirect emissions provides amore complete picture of theGHG footprintofa facility: “As facilitiesconsiderchanges thatwouldaffect theiremissions–additionofacogenerationunittoboostoverallefficiencyevenasitincreasesdirectemissions,forexample–therelativeimpact on total (direct plus indirect) emissions by the facility should be monitored. Annually reportedindirectenergyusagealsoaidstheconservationawarenessofthefacilityandprovidesinformation”toCARBto be considered for future strategies by the industrial sector.17 For these reasons, CARB has proposedrequiringthecalculationofdirectandindirectGHGemissionsaspartoftheAB32reportingrequirements.Additionally, OPR directs lead agencies to “make a good‐faith effort, based on available information, tocalculate, model, or estimate GHG emissions from a project, including the emissions associated withvehicular traffic, energy consumption, water usage and construction activities.”18 Therefore, direct andindirectemissionshavebeencalculatedfortheproposedProject.
Forpurposesofthisanalysis,itisconsideredreasonableandconsistentwithcriteriapollutantcalculationstoconsideronlythoseGHGemissionsresultingfromproposedProject‐relatedincremental(net)increaseintheuseofon‐roadmobilevehicles,electricity,andnaturalgascomparedtoexistingconditions.ThisincludesProject construction activities such asdemolition, hauling, and constructionworker trips. SincepotentialimpactsresultingfromGHGemissionsarelong‐termratherthanacute,GHGemissionsarecalculatedonanannualbasis.15 CaliforniaClimateActionRegistry,GeneralReportingProtocolVersion3.1,2009.16 Embodiedenergyincludesenergyrequiredforwaterpumpingandtreatmentforend‐uses.17 CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard (ARB),2007a. Initial Statement ofReasons forRulemaking,ProposedRegulation forMandatory
Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pursuant to the California GlobalWarming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32).PlanningandTechnicalSupportDivisionEmissionInventoryBranch,October19,2007.
Construction emissionswere calculatedusing theURBEMISmodel,which is basedonOFFROAD2007andEMFAC2007modeloutputs. OFFROAD2007andEMFAC2007areemissionsestimationmodelsdevelopedbyCARBtocalculateemissions fromconstructionactivities. Theoutputvaluesused in thisanalysiswereadjusted to be Project‐specific, based on equipment usage rates, type of fuel, and construction schedule.These values were then applied to the construction phasing assumptions used in the criteria pollutantanalysis to generateGHGemissions values for each constructionyear (refer toAppendixB.2of thisDraftEIR). URBEMISoutputsreportCO2,,CH4,andN2Oemissions. InURBEMIS,valuesarederivedfromfactorspublishedinthe2006IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)GuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGas Inventories. These values are then converted to metric tons for consistency. The CO2e values arecalculated for theentire constructionperiodaswell as existingand futureProjectbuild‐out conditions inorder togenerateanetchange inGHGemissions forconstructionandoperation(refer toAppendixB.2ofthis Draft EIR). In accordance with SCAQMD guidance, GHG emissions from construction have beenamortizedoverthe30‐yearlifetimeoftheProject(i.e.,totalconstructionGHGemissionsweredividedby30todetermineanannualconstructionemissionsestimatecomparabletooperationalemissions).
Mobile sourceemission calculationsassociatedwithoperationof theproposedProjectare also calculatedusingtheURBEMISmodel.Themodelutilizesaprojectionofannualvehiclemilestraveled(VMT),whichisderived from the Supplemental Traffic Analysis for the Good Samaritan Project conducted by Crain andAssociatesdatedJune2011fortheProject(providedinAppendixGofthisDraftEIR).Thesevaluesaccountfor the daily and seasonal variations in trip frequency and length associated with residential, retail, andhospital land uses proposed as part of the Project. Mobile source emissions also account for residentstravelingtoandfromworkandotheractivitiesthatrequireacommute.Netemissionvaluesarecalculatedbased on the difference between existing conditions and Project buildout conditions. Mobile sourcecalculationsalsoutilizeEMFAC2007andtheCCARGRP,Version3.1togenerateemissionfactorsforCO2andCH4,andN2O.TheseemissionfactorsarethenappliedtotheannualVMTcalculatedintheTrafficStudy.
Ahypothetical representativeBAUscenario isused tosimulatedevelopment forcomparisonwithProject‐generatedGHGemissions.TheBAUscenarioassumesconstructionandoperationofcomparableamenities(housingandcommercial)similarinscaleandsizetoservetheregionalneed.ABAUcasedoesnotconsiderthe site‐specific benefits resulting from co‐location of uses, availability of public transportation, projectdesignfeatures,andprescribedmitigationmeasures.BAUscenarioemissionsestimatesassumeenergyandwater consumption in accordancewith theminimum regulatory requirements in place at the timeAB‐32waspromulgatedin2006,andthereforebasedinpartonanannualemissionsinventorypreparedbyCARBforyear2005.
EmissionscalculationsfortheProjectincludecreditsorreductionsfortheProjectdesignfeaturesandGHGreducingmeasureswhicharerequiredbyregulation,suchasreductionsinenergyorwaterdemand.Sincethe Project is subject to the LA Green Building Code and CALGreen Code, Project features will beincorporated consistent with the mandatory measures as listed below in sub‐section c. (In addition, asmobile source GHG emissions are directly dependent on the number of vehicle trips, a decrease in thenumber of Project generated trips as a result of Project featureswill provide a proportional reduction inmobilesourceGHGemissions.ModelingoptionsintheURBEMISmodelandspreadsheetcalculationsweretakentoaccountforsuchvehiculartrip‐reducingProjectfeatures,asdetailedbelow.
Bike and Pedestrian (non‐motorized access to transit) — accessibility to the project site fromsidewalksandbicyclelanes.
The consumption of fossil fuels to generate electricity and to provideheating andhotwater createsGHGemissions. Future fuel consumption rates andwaterdemandare estimatedbased on square footage andnumberofdwellingunitswithintheProject.NaturalgasandelectricityusagefactorsderivedfromtheCEQAHandbook (1993), California Energy Commission Residential Electric Utility Rates19, and the CaliforniaCommercialEnd‐UseSurvey20areusedtoprojectfuelconsumptionrates.Embodiedenergyratesassociatedwith theproposedProject’s futurewater supply needs are calculatedusing factorsderived from theCEC.GHG emission factors from theCCARprotocol are then applied to the respective usage rates, to calculateannualgreenhousegasemissionsinmetrictons.
TheCECestimateforenergyintensityofthewaterusecycleinsouthernCaliforniaisusedtocalculatetheenergy usage related to water conveyance. Emission factors from the CCAR GRP, Version 3.1 areimplemented incalculatingtheassociatedGHGs. BecausewaterconveyanceassociatedwiththeproposedProjectisregionalinnature,theemissionfactorsusedinthiscomponentoftheanalysisrepresentaState‐wide average of known power producing facilities, utilizing various technologies and emission controlstrategies.
These emission factorsutilized in theproject scenarioswere adjusted to account for future reductions inGHG emissions due to the implementation of recent regulatorymeasures. Examples include Los AngelesDepartment of Water and Power meeting the 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard, motor vehicles fuelsmeeting theLowCarbonFuel Standard, and the gradual introductionof newermodelpassenger cars andlighttruckswhichmeetthePavleystandards.
Enhance pedestrian circulation in neighborhood districts, community centers, and appropriatelocationsinregionalcentersandalongmixed‐useboulevards(Policy3.13).
Apply energy‐saving technologies and components to exceed Title 24 (Energy Efficiency)requirementsby15%,toreducetheProject’selectricaluse‐profile. Examplesofthesecomponentsincludeefficient/lowenergylightfixturesandenergyefficientheatingandcoolingequipment.
o InstallEnergyStarcompliantequipmentandappliances
Install conduit from the building roof, eave, or other locations to provide pre‐wiring for futureelectricalsolarsystem.
Recycle or reuse100percent of trees, stumps, rocks and associated vegetation and soils resultingprimarilyfromlandclearing.
Reduce water usage and demand 20 percent (versus “business as usual”) by implementing dripirrigationandwaterefficientfixtures. On‐sitereductionsinwaterusewouldreducetheamountofenergynecessary to transport thewater to thesite,and thusreduce theProject’senergydemandsandassociatedGHGemissions.
o Installlow‐flowfixturesthatreducetheoveralluseofpotablewaterby
o Installwater‐conservingfixturesornon‐potablesystems[tocapturerainwater,graywater,ortreatedwastewater],toreducewastewater.
o InstallseparatemetersorsubmetersforindoorandoutdoorpotablewateruseifrequiredforreclaimedwaterorbyCityOrdinance.
o Installlandscapeirrigationwithsoilmoisturecontrollersandsensors
HVAC systems shall undergo commissioning as required by CALGreen Code. The followingequipmentshallmeetthefollowingefficiencyrates:Gasfiredequipment‐AFUE0.9orhigher,HeatpumpsHSPF8.0orhigher,CoolingEquipmentSEER13.0orhigher.
Outside air delivery for mechanical and naturally ventilated spaces in buildings must meet theminimumrequirementsofDivision1oftheapplicablecode.
Emissions of GHGswere calculated for each year of construction of the proposed Project and results arepresentedonTableIV.B‐7,ConstructionGreenhouseGasEmissions.
To be consistent with guidance from the SCAQMD for calculating criteria pollutants from constructionactivities,GHGemissions fromon‐siteconstructionactivitiesandoff‐sitehaulingandconstructionworkercommutingareconsideredasProject‐generated. ConstructionoftheProjectisestimatedtoemitatotalof6,661tonsofCO2eoverthe38monthsofconstruction.Constructionemissionswillbeamortizedacrossthe30 year lifetime of the proposed Project, per SCAQMD methodology. When amortized over 30 years,constructionresults inapproximately221 tonsperyearofCO2e. Resultsof thisanalysisarepresented inTableIV.B‐7.
(2) Operations
SincetheProjectinvolvesconstructionofanewresidentialbuilding,theProjectmustcomplywiththeGreenBuildingProgram,asstatedabove. Theresidentialandretaildesignwill includeGHG–reductionmeasuresconsistentwiththemandatorymeasuresoftheMunicipalGreenBuildingCode andhavebeenincludedinthequantitativeanalysis, suchasenergy‐efficientappliances, enhanced insulation, low‐water fixtures, andefficient irrigation. The Project Applicant has also committed to incorporating sustainable landscapefeaturessuchasselectingplant typesaccustomedto theSouthernCaliforniaclimate,plantingshade trees,andinstallinghigh‐efficiencyirrigationsystemstoreducewaterdemand.
TheProject isexpected tobe fullyoperationalandoccupied in2015,andannualGHGemissionsresultingfromvehicle,electrical,andnaturalgasusagewerecalculatedfortheexpectedopeningyear.However,SCAGhasnotestablishedaGHGreductiongoalfor2015,andsignificancewillnotbedeterminedfortheopeningyear scenario. Annual emissionswere therefore calculated for future operational years, 2020 and 2035,coincidentwith the long‐termCARBandSCAGplanninghorizon. Projectoperationalemissionscalculatedforyears2020and2035takeintoaccountGHG‐reducingProjectfeaturesinthequantitativeanalysis,suchas improved energy efficiency, reducedwaterdemand and improved accessibility to alternativemodes oftransportation(walking,biking,masstransit),andtripreductionsbasedonthetrafficstudyaslistedabove.EmissionsfromBAUscenariosfor2020and2035werealsocalculated.However,theURBEMISmodeldoesnotcurrentlycontainaccurateemissionfactorsinto2035,andthoseemissionswereconservativelyassumedtobeessentiallyequalto2020emissions.
Table IV.B‐8,Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions ‐ CO2e, lists the BAU and Project‐related GHG emissionsresulting from vehicle, electrical, and natural gas usage resulting from construction and operation of theproposedProjectforhorizonyears2015,2020,and2035.Asshowntherein,althoughimplementationoftheProject would result in an increase in GHG emissions as compared to existing uses (the site is currentlyvacant), the Project as proposed results in an overall decrease in emissions when compared to similardevelopmentbuiltwithoutincorporationofsustainablestrategies.TheseresultsdemonstratethattheGHG‐reducingmeasures tobe included in theProject combinedwith regulatoryefforts result ina reduction intotal emissions of about 42 and44 percent for analysis years 2020 and2035, respectively, compared tosimilardevelopmentbuiltinaccordancewiththeminimumstandardsinplacebeforeAB32(socalledBAU).
Table IV.B‐8
Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2e (tons/year)
Emission Source BAU Scenario Year 2015 Year 2020 Year 2035
Construction (Amortized) 221 221 On Road Mobile Sourcesa 13,516 12,840 Electricityb 1,387 1,387 Natural Gasc 1,115 1,115 Water Conveyanced 801 801 Total N/A 17,038 16,363
Project Scenarioe Year 2015 Year 2020 Year 2035
Construction (Amortized) 221 221 221 On Road Mobile Sourcesa 7,431 7,430 6,687 Electricityb 1,002 884 884 Natural Gasc 681 681 681 Water Conveyanced 1,022 920 920 Total 10,136 9,915 9,172
Emission Reduction vs. BAU N/A (7,124) (7,191) Total Percent Reduction vs. BAU N/A -41.8% -43.9% Mobile Source Reduction vs. BAU N/A (6,086) (6,153) Mobile Percent Reduction vs. BAU N/A -45.0% -47.9% SCAG Target Reduction (%) N/A -8% -13% Meet or Exceed Reduction Target (Threshold)? N/A Yes Yes
a Mobile source values were derived using URBEMIS. BAU emissions do not include Pavley or LCFS standards. Emissions calculated
using the CARB Pavley I and Low Carbon Fuel Standard Post processor for EMFAC2007. b Proposed Project emissions include CalGreen Mandatory Requirements which increases energy efficiency by 15% beyond Title 24
requirement and LADWP's improvement to meet 33% RPS target. c Natural Gas Usage Rates from California Commercial End Use Survey (CEUS). Project related emissions include CALGreen
requirements. d Water conveyance energy rates from California Energy Commission Staff Report: California's Water - Energy Relationship. 2007.
Project related electricity emission factors include 33% RPS. Source: PCR Services Corporation, 2011.
With regard to transportation emissions, the proposed Project was estimated to result in a reduction inemissionsof45percentin2020andalmost48percentin2035comparedtoBAU.Thesereductionsexceedapplicable SCAG reduction targets. With the implementation of GHG‐reducing proposed Project designfeatures, theProjectwouldbeconsistentwithCARBandSCAGreduction targets. Withregard to the firstCEQA checklist question [GHG‐1], the GHG emissions resulting from Project construction and operationswouldnotdirectlyorindirectlyhaveasignificantimpactontheenvironmentbasedontheabovementionedthresholds. Therefore, the Project would result in a less than significant impact with regard to GHGemissions.
It isdifficulttoestimatewhatportionofthedirectandindirectGHGemissionspresentedaboverepresentnewGHGemissionsversusexistingdisplacedemissions.Displacedemissionsarethosethatarecreatedandemittedelsewhere,priortoProjectimplementation,whereasnewGHGemissionsarethosethatdonotandwouldnot existwithout implementationof theProject, creating a true incremental increase in emissions.ThisProjectwouldprovidehousing toaccommodate theprojected increase indemand forhousingwithinthe region. Thosewhowould occupy the new residences already generate GHG emissions through theircurrentactivitieselsewhere,andanynetincreaseinsuchemissionswiththeirrelocationtothesitewoulddependonthenatureoftheircurrentactivities,suchasthedistanceoftheircommute,theenergydemandassociatedwiththeircurrentresidences,andotherfactors.Accordingly,itisconservativelyassumedthatallProject‐relatedoperationalemissionsarenew.AssumingallProject‐relatedoperationalemissionsarenewis a conservative approach that likely overstates to some undeterminable extent the amount of any truly“new”emissions.
Specific Project features will further reduce GHG emissions. As discussed above, the Project would beconstructed inamannerconsistentwith theCityofLosAngelesGreenBuildingCodeandCALGreenCode.The Project design features that would be incorporated in the Project would include transportationmeasures to reduce vehicle trips, building efficiencymeasures to reduce energy consumption, andwatersavingmeasures. TheeffectivenessinreducingGHGemissionsofeachoftheProjectfeaturesvaries. Highperformancewindows can reduce energy demand for heating and cooling by over 20 percent per year.23Trees planted on the Project site as part of the planned landscaping are able to sequester more carbondioxideastheyageandtheaveragetreecansequester330poundsofcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphereeveryyear.Aheatislandeffectmitigatingroofcaneitherbepaintedacolorthatreflectsmuchofthesun’sheat, such as white, or be a “green roof,” also known as a living roof. A living roof can reduce airtemperaturesandreducetheneedforheatingandcoolingwithinthebuilding.Reducingwaterconsumptionresults in a reductionofGHGemissions fromenergygeneration tooperatewaterpumpsandwastewatertreatmentfacilities,whichhavebeenidentifiedasmajorsourcesofGHGsstatewide. Lowflowfaucetsandshowersuseupto50percentlesswaterthantheircounterparts,whilelowflowtoiletsuseapproximately70percentlesswaterthantraditionaltoilets.24Overall,theProject’sgreenbuildingandsustainabilityfeatures,as a result of its consistencywithGreenBuilding standards,would reducebothenergydemandandVMTassociatedwiththeproposedProject,byatleastanestimated40percentoverBAU,resultinginareductionofGHGemissionsfromthoseshowninTableIV.B‐8.
Asmentionedabove,theProjectcontainsseveralGHG‐reducingdesignfeaturesconsistentwiththeLAGreenPlan,City’sGreenBuildingCode,andCALGreenCode.However,asofJanuary2011,theCityofLosAngeleshasnotyetdevelopedaGreenhouseGasReductionPlanthatmeetstherequirementssetforthinthelatestOPRguidelines.TheProjectwillemploysustainableProjectdesignfeatures,theproposedProjectresultsinGHG emissions consistent with SCAG reduction targets, and incorporates water conservation, energyconservation,tree‐planting,andotherfeaturesconsistentwiththeGreenBuildingCode,CALGreenStandardsCodeand theLAGreenPlan. Therefore, theproposedProjectwouldnotconflictwithanyapplicableplan,policy, or regulation to reduceGHG emissions. TheProject’s impacts are considered less than significantwithrespecttothesecondcriterion.
Duetothecomplexphysical,chemicalandatmosphericmechanismsinvolvedinglobalclimatechange,thereisno basis for concluding that the Project's very small theoretical emissions increase could actually cause ameasurableincreaseinglobalGHGemissionsnecessarytoinfluenceglobalclimatechange.Newerconstructionmaterialsandpractices,currentenergyefficiencyrequirements,andnewerappliancestendtoemitlowerlevelsofairpollutantemissions,includingGHGs,ascomparedtothosebuiltyearsago,buttheneteffectisdifficulttoquantify.Thus,theestimatednetincreaseinemissionsresultingfromimplementationoftheproposedProjectpresentedabovemaybeanover‐orunder‐estimation.
4. MITIGATION MEASURES
Project implementation results in an increase inGHG emissions on a short‐termbasis (construction) andlong‐termbasis(operations)whencomparedtoexistinguseofthesite.However,theProjectincorporatesnumerousProjectdesign features that furtherprovideGHG‐reducing strategies, andwhen combinedwith
23 Efficient Windows Collaborative, Annual Energy Use by Window Type in Los Angeles, CA.
regulatory improvements in energy efficiency, resource conservation, and the GHG‐intensity of fuels andelectricity, results in emissions that are approximately 42 to 44 percent of emissions expected under thebusinessasusualscenario.Thus,impactswouldbelessthansignificantandmitigationisnotwarranted.
Althoughmitigationmeasuresarenot required, the followingmeasure isproposed to further reduceGHGemissions and/or provide some flexibility for the Project to incorporate additional water conservingmeasuresinthefutureasbuild‐outoccurs:
MMB‐21: The Project Applicantwill determine if “purple pipe” reclaimedwater is available andfeasible for the Project. If reclaimed water is available, or if it is foreseeable thatreclaimedwaterwillbemadeavailablepriortocompletionofconstruction,theproposedProjectwillbedesignedtoacceptreclaimedwaterforirrigationoroutdooruses.
Typicallyacumulativelyconsiderable impact istheimpactofaproposedProject inadditiontotherelatedprojectsidentifiedinSectionIIIofthisDraftEIR,andlocatedintheProjectvicinity.However,inthecaseofglobalclimatechange,theproximityoftheProjecttootherGHG‐generatingactivitiesisnotdirectlyrelevanttothedeterminationofacumulativeimpact.AlthoughtheStaterequiresMPOsandotherplanningagenciesto consider how region wide planning decisions can impact GCC, there is currently no established non‐speculativemethod to assess the cumulative impact of proposed independent private‐party developmentprojects.
TheGHGemissionsoftheProjectalonewillnotlikelycauseadirectphysicalchangeintheenvironment.Itisglobal emissions in theiraggregate that contribute to climatechange,notanyonesourceof emissionsalone.Therefore,duetotheincrementalamountofGHGemissionsestimatedforthisProject,thelackofanyevidenceforconcludingthattheProject'sGHGemissionscouldcauseanymeasurableincreaseinglobalGHGemissionsnecessary to forceglobalclimatechange,and the fact that theProject incorporatesdesign features toreducepotentialGHGemissionstheProjectisconsiderednottohinderthegoalsofAB32.
Although AB 32 sets a state‐wide target for 2020 GHG emissions which equates to approximately 28.5percentbelowstate‐wideBAUemissions,theScopingplanandotherimplementingtoolsofthelawareclearthat thereductionsarenotexpected tooccuruniformly fromall sourcesorsectors. CARBhasset targetsspecific to the transportation sector, for example, and under SB 375 SCAGmust incorporate these GHG‐reduction goals into the next Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and demonstrate that its SustainableCommunities Strategies (SCS) (or alternative planning strategy) is consistent with the Regional HousingNeedsAssessment(RHNA).OneofthegoalsofthisprocessistoensurethattheeffortsofState,regionalandlocalplanningagenciesaccommodatethecontemporaneousincreaseinpopulationandemploymentwithadecreaseinoverallGHGemissions.Forexample,adoptingzoningdesignationsthatreducedensityinareaswhichareexpectedtoexperiencegrowthinpopulationandhousingneeds,isseenasinconsistentwithanti‐sprawl goals of sustainable planning. Although development under a reduced density scenario results inlowerGHGemissionsfromtheuseofthatlandcomparedtowhatiscurrentlyorhypotheticallyallowed(by
creating fewer units and fewer attributable vehicle trips), total regional GHG emissions will likely fail todecreaseatthedesiredrateor,worse,increaseifregionalhousingandemploymentneedsofanareaaremetwith a larger number of less‐intensive development projects. Therefore, it is not simply a cumulativeincreaseinregionaldevelopmentortheresultantGHGemissionsthatthreatensGHGreductiongoals.
The land‐usesectorcanaccommodategrowthandstillbeconsistentwithState‐wideplans toreduceGHGemissions. To that end, various agencies are required to develop programs to guide future building andtransportationdevelopmenttowardsminimizedresourceconsumptionandloweredresultantpollution.Asdiscussedabove,TheCityofLosAngeleshasdeveloped itsGreenBuildingCodeand theState’sCALGreenCodearenowmandatory.However,thespecificoptionsapplicabletoandchosenbyeachindividualprojectdeveloper,andtheirefficacyinreducingGHGemissionsvarywidely.ItshouldalsobenotedthatSCAGisnotexpected to complete its SCS until May 2012. In addition, the emissions models used for project‐levelevaluationsdonotfullyreflectimprovementsintechnologyandotherreductionsinGHGemissionsthatarelikelytooccurpursuanttoStateregulations,suchasAB1493,SB1368,AB32,andExecutiveOrderS‐3‐5,aswell as future federal and/or State regulations. Therefore, it is not possible or meaningful to calculateemissions from each of the identified related projects and compare that with a numeric threshold orreductiontarget.
Nonetheless, reducingGHGemissions is an importantpriority and reasonable reductionefforts shouldbetaken.TableIV.B‐9,ConsistencywithApplicableGHGReductionStrategies,containsalistofnumerousGHG‐reducingstrategiespotentiallyapplicabletotheproposedProject,theidentifiedrelatedprojects,andfuturedevelopmentsimilarinscopeandlocation(CityofLosAngeles).Includedaretheregulationsorguidelinesfromwhichthestrategiesweredeveloped,andtheexpectedrangeinreductionofGHGs. TheProject‐levelanalysis above highlights the manner by which the proposed Project intends to meet many of thesestrategies.
As shown in Table IV.B‐9, numerous options exist for project developers to reduce their contributions tocity‐, county‐, andState‐wideGHGemissions,whilehelping tomeet the region’s futurehousing, jobs, andinfrastructureneeds.However,itisnotpossibleatthistimetoaccuratelyquantifyGHGemissionsexpectedfromtherelatedprojectsortheGHGreductionsanticipatedfromtheabove‐listedstrategies.TheproposedProjectwouldbeconsistentwiththeState’sgoals,resultinaGHGemissionprofilethatisbetter(lower)thanbusinessasusual,andincludeimplementationofmanyGHG‐reducingstrategies,asdemonstratedinTableIV.B‐9. Therelatedprojectswouldbesubject toandcomplywithsimilarmandatorymeasures. Thus, theproposedProjectwouldnotresult inaconsiderablecontributiontocumulativelysignificantglobalclimatechangeimpacts.
Consistency with Applicable GHG Reduction Strategies
Description Reduction Range Project Consistency
AB 1493 - (Pavley Regulations)
Reduces greenhouse gas emissions in new passenger vehicles from 2012 through 2016. Also reduces gasoline consumption to a rate of 31 percent of 1990 gasoline consumption (and associated GHG emissions) by 2020
Up to 17% Included in Project-related GHG emission calculations
SB 1368
Establishes an emissions performance standard for power plants within the State of California.
Up to 25% over LADWP’s baseline
Included in Project-related GHG emission calculations and conduit will
be installed in anticipation of a possible renewable energy system.
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Establishes protocols for measuring life-cycle carbon intensity of transportation fuels and helps to establish use of alternative fuels.
10% Included in Project-related GHG emission calculations
Los Angeles Green Building Code/ CALGREEN Requirements
Storm water drainage and retention during construction
Consistent
Exceed 2008 California Energy Code requirements per LA Green Ordinance
Consistent
Gas fireplaces shall comply with USEPA Phase II emission limits
Consistent
All appliances shall be Energy Star Rated Consistent
All bathroom exhaust fans shall be Energy Star compliant
Implementation towards the 15% energy reduction target
Consistent
HVAC Systems will be designed to meet ASHRAE standards
Implementation towards the 15% energy reduction target
Consistent
Energy commissioning shall be performed for buildings larger than 10,000 square feet.
Implementation towards the 15% energy reduction target
Consistent
Install conduit from the building roof, eave, or other locations to provide pre-wiring for future renewable energy systems
Consistent
Design interior and exterior lighting such that zero direct-beam illumination leaves the building site, to reduce light pollution.
Consistent
Air filtration systems are required to meet a minimum of MERV 8 or higher.
Project Applicant is committed to a minimum of MERV 8
Refrigerants used in newly installed HVAC systems shall not contain any CFCs.
Consistent
Parking spaces shall be designed for carpool or alternative fueled vehicles. Up to eight percent of total parking spaces will be designed for such vehicles, per CALGreen Code.
Consistent
IV.B.2 Greenhouse Gases April 2012
Table IV.B‐9 (Continued)
Consistency with Applicable GHG Reduction Strategies
Long-term and short-term bike parking shall be provided for up to five percent of vehicle trips.
Consistent
Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) Required.
Consistent
Grading and paving designed to keep surface water from entering buildings and to manage surface water flows.
Consistent
Individual spaces consuming more than 100 gal/day required to have separate meters if building is in excess of 50,000 square feet. Any building regardless of size shall install separate meters for spaces consuming more than 1,000 gal/day.
Consistent
Indoor water usage must be reduced by 20% compared to current California Building Code Standards for maximum flow.
Consistent
All irrigation controllers must be installed with weather sensing or soil moisture sensors.
Consistent
Wastewater usage shall be reduced by 20 percent compared to current California Building Standards.
Consistent. Mitigation Measure I-1 may also assist in meeting the intent
of this requirement
Requires a minimum of 50% recycle or reuse of nonhazardous construction and demolition debris.
Consistent
Requires documentation of types of waste recycled, diverted or reused.
Consistent
Requires use of low VOC coatings consistent with AQMD Rule 1168.
Consistent
Install a resilient flooring system complying with the VOC-emission limits listed on its Low-emitting Materials List or certified under the Resilient Floor Covering Institute (RFCI) Floor Score Program.
100 percent of vegetation, rocks, soils from land clearing shall be recycled or stockpiled on-site.
Potentially consistent
Installation of HVAC systems, refrigeration, and fire suppression equipment shall not contain CFCs and Halons.
Consistent
HVAC systems shall undergo commissioning. The following equipment shall meet the following efficiency rates: Gas fired equipment - AFUE 0.9 or higher, Heat pumps HSPF 8.0 or higher, Cooling Equipment SEER 13.0 or higher.
Consistent
April 2012 IV.B.2 Greenhouse Gases
Table IV.B‐9 (Continued)
Consistency with Applicable California Climate Action Team Report Strategies
Outside air delivery for mechanical and naturally ventilated spaces in buildings must meet the minimum requirements of Division 1 of the applicable code.
Consistent
For buildings equipped with demand control ventilation, CO2 sensors and ventilation controls shall be specified and installed.
Consistent
CALGREEN Voluntary Actions
Building shall be oriented with long side within 30 degrees of south.
Consistent
Solar reflective index shall be consistent with CalGREEN or Cool Roof requirements.
Potentially consistent
Water heating efficiency shall be 0.80 or higher Potentially consistent
Limit turf areas to no more than 50 percent of total landscaped area and utilize 75 percent native plant species
Consistent. Mitigation Measure E-3 may also assist in meeting the intent
of this requirement
Select an infill, greyfield or brownfield site for residential development.
Consistent
LA Green Plan
Increase use of renewable energy (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal) by 20% by 2010
Potentially consistent.
Increase use of renewable energy to 35% by 2020 Up to 25% over LADWP’s baseline
Consistent (future occupants will benefit from the City’s efforts to meet
RPS)
Promote walking and biking to work Consistent
Promote high-density housing close to major transportation arteries
Consistent
Climate Action Team
Reduce diesel-fueled commercial motor vehicle idling.
Consistent. MM B-20 implements this limit.
Plant five million trees in urban areas by 2020 to effect climate change emission reductions.
Partially consistent; Project Applicant will plant one tree for every
residential dwelling unit built.
Implement efficient water management practices and incentives, as saving water saves energy and GHG emissions.
Consistent
The California Energy Commission updates building energy efficiency standards that apply to newly constructed buildings and additions to and alterations to existing buildings. Both the Energy Action Plan and the Integrated Energy Policy Report call for ongoing updating of the standards
15% Consistent
IV.B.2 Greenhouse Gases April 2012
Table IV.B‐9 (Continued)
Consistency with Applicable GHG Reduction Strategies
Reduce GHG emissions from electricity by reducing energy demand. The California Energy Commission updates appliance energy efficiency standards that apply to electrical devices or equipment sold in California.
15% Consistent. MM B-21 implements this goal.
Apply strategies that integrate transportation and land-use decisions, including but not limited to promoting jobs/housing proximity, high-density residential/ commercial development along transit corridors, and implementing intelligent transportation systems.
Consistent
Reduce energy use in private buildings. 15% Consistent
