IWMI and FAO

ADB funded Issue Paper on

Trends and transitions in Asian irrigation: What are the prospects for the future?

The Issue Paper: Structure

• Why irrigation? Introduction

• Trends and their drivers

• Irrigation scenarios for Asia

• Rise of atomistic irrigation in Asia

• Reform or morph: Unlocking value

• Future challenges and options

Rising irrigation, falling food prices & poverty

But is irrigation expansion like1960s & 1970s possible, or even

desirable?

Population will increase,Climate change is

imminentDo we have enough

water?

Major pathways to meet future food demand in Asia

• Invest in rainfed agriculture• Invest in irrigation

Improve productivity of existing systems (How?)Expand irrigation (Where and of what type?)

• Promote trade from water rich highly productive areas

• Reform irrigation and unlock value

Rise of the atomistic irrigation in South Asia..

Net irrigated area under surface irrigation (000’ha)

Net irrigated area served by groundwater (000’ ha)

1993-4 2000-1

% change 1993-4 2000-1

% change

Andhra Pradesh 2523 2269 -10.1 1678 1829 +9

Bihar & Jharkhand 1762 986.8

-44.02029 2111.5

+40.7

MP & Chattisgarh 2140 1279.1 -40.2 1535 2300.9 +49.9

Punjab 1283.4 1168.7 -8.9 2622 2438 -7.1

Rajasthan 1815 1439 -20.7 2702 3450 +27.7

UP & Uttaranchal 3837 2106.6 -45.1 5630 8493 + 50.8

Pakistan Punjab 4240 3740 -11.8 8760 10340 +18

Sind 2300 1960 -14.8 140 200 +42.9

Bangladesh 537 480 -10.7 2124 3462 +63

All areas 22709 17215 -24.2 28437 35762 +25.8

This calls for entirely different

paradigm of water management

Whither PIM/IMT?

Contours of irrigation is fast

changing

Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation

1. Nature of the state1.1 Local authority structures :1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor:

2. Nature of Agrarian society2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern2.2 Ease of exit from farming2.3 Agrarian institutions

3. Demographics3.1 Population pressure on farm land

4.State of irrigation technology4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport

Future of surface irrigation?

FAVORABLECONTINGENCIES

STRONGREVENUE/LEVYHIGH

HOMOGENEOUSLOWFEUDAL/STATIST

LOW

LOW

BRIGHT

South Asia

WeakWelfareImpossible

Diverse;HighEgalitarian

Very high; intensification and diversification.

High

BLEAK

PIM/IMT will be difficult to sustain becauseSurface irrigation as a technology of water

mobilization andApplication is being crowded out by

Atomistic irrigation.Strategy? Reinvent surface systems to support

Atomistic irrigation

Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation

1. Nature of the state1.1 Local authority structures :1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor:

2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern2.2 Ease of exit from farming2.3 Agrarian institutions

3. Demographics3.1 Population pressure on farm land

4.State of irrigation technology4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport

Future of surface irrigation?

CONTINGENCIES

STRONGREVENUE/LEVYHIGH

MONO CROPPINGLOWFEUDAL/STATIST

LOW

LOW

CENTRAL ASIA

STRONGWelfare +Taxes+ Exports? ???

COTTON/WHEAT;HIGH taxes;LOW?STATIST?

lOW;

LOW?

GOOD

Best bet for farmer-participatoryIrrigation management. Larger farms,

better levy crop prices and‘right’ capitalization will

Promote PIM.

Some of the arguments in this section are developed in

this book..

Adapting yesterday’s systems to tomorrow’s needs: What can be done?

Stage of agricultural development Desired irrigation & drainage strategy

Focus outside agricultureDeveloped economies (e.g. Malaysia)

Seek private investments for system upgradationPrice water at realistic levelsImprove water productivityGo for technological fixes

Export oriented agricultureIntermediate/transition economies

Invest in smaller schemes dedicated to high value cropsInvest in water savingsEnsure financial viability, even if not full cost recovery

Dependent on agricultureDeveloping economies

Concentrate on cereal production & livelihood goalsBuilt new infrastructure if feasible or modernize existing onesProvide government and external financing of irrigation schemes

New threat? Or opportunity? Land acquisitions in other countries

Thank you

For copies of the draft Issue Paper

Contact

Aditi Mukherjia.mukherji@cgiar.org