Jagdish KishwanDirector General, Indian Council of Forestry

Research and Education

Estimation of Forest Carbon Stocks in India: A Methodology based on National Forest

Inventory

CfRN-ICFRE International WorkshopDehradun, 27th April 2009

UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol have made Carbon a tradable

commodity

COP 13: December 2007Bali Action Plan: “…Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries…” [Para 1b (iii) of BAP]

= REDD-plus REDD: “...inter alia, assessments of changes in forest cover and associated carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions, incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest…”

Emerging Policy Options

1. Conservation, sustainable management of forests, increase in forest cover/A&R (Add C)

2. Reducing deforestation and degradation rates (Save C)

Indian Viewpoint on REDD

Comprehensive REDDCarbon Saved and Carbon Added

•Reducing Deforestation & Degradation

•Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests, Increase in Forest Cover (A&R)

Indian submission incorporates above and seeks incentives on Incremental and Baseline stocks

Distribution of Global forest cover by region (%)

16.1

14.5

25.3

17.9

5.2

21Africa

Asia

Europe

N and C America

Oceania

S America

10 Countries with largest forest cover(mha)

478310

303

197

164

13488 6968

Russian Fedeartion

Brazil

Canada

US

China

Australia

DR Congo

Indonesia

Peru

India

Global Forest Carbon (2005)

Constant or baseline stocks

638 btC

Forest C stocks in developing countries

300 btC

Forest C stocks under C, SMF

100 btC

Stocks added due to IFC per year

0.3 btC = 2.4 mha

Stocks lost due to deforestation per year

1.7 btC = 13.4 mha

Based on Policy Approaches and Practices

HFLD, LFLDCN, SMF

IFC+CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD

GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS

CONSTANT STOCKS

CHANGING STOCKS

INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL

HFLD: High Forest Cover Low deforestationLFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestationIFC: Increase in forest coverCN: Forest ConservationSMF: Sustainable Management of Forests

HFHD: High Forest cover High DeforestationLFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation

State of Forest Carbon Stocks A fn of

CONSTANT STOCKScs

DECREMENTAL STOCKSDS

INCREMENTAL STOCKSIS

CO2

c

Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF

Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD

BaseLine

Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS

Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS

Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS

All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks

Comprehensive approach

All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks

C

C

REDD+ Mechanism Beneficial to all CountriesComprehensive Approach

(All Contributors to SFC Equally Important)

Incentives/compensation for all necessaryWhy incentives/compensation?

Constant stocks (HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, opportunity cost of conversion to

more beneficial land usesIncremental stocks (IFC, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, cost incurred on additional

plantations, revenue loss due to no or reduced loggingDecremental stocks (HFHD, LFHD)– Revenue loss due to reduced logging

Acceptability of Comprehensive Mechanism?

The only logical answer after Bali» REDD+

• Inaccessible, undisturbed but managed forests to be counted provided costs on preserving their present state are incurred

• Conservation projects/areas also to be counted against commitment for continuing policy of conservation

• Some developed countries against comprehensive approach especially C but more important is logical conclusion of BAP

• If FC, EFCS effect state of global forest carbon, these cannot be ignored

Methodological and Policy Issues

Unresolved

State of readiness??

Finalization of Definitions, Modalities, Rules and Guidelines by COP 15??

Main Methodological Issues(SBSTA 28, Bonn June 2008, FCCC/SBSTA/2008/L.12)

Estimation and monitoring – National monitoring systems to facilitate results-based,

demonstrable, transparent and verifiable estimates– Options for robust, consistent methodologies including

forest inventories, ground-based, and remote-sensing approaches, as appropriate;

– Applicability of the considered methodologies, including those in existing good practice guidance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the assessment of reductions in emissions from deforestation; reductions in emissions from degradation, and incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest.

Development of Methodology …contd…

Methodology Common to Both Policy Approaches based on remote sensing and minimum ground verification

Simultaneous Development of Methodology

Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks

–Biomass Carbon

–Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)

At agreed interval with respect to

–Reference emissions level

–Reference level

Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks: Indian

Approach

Methodology to Assess Forest Carbon Stocks

• Work in progress on Second National Communication (SNC) to UNFCCC–Biomass Carbon (FSI)–SOC (ICFRE, IIRS)

Methodology to Assess Forest Carbon Stocks

• Carbon per unit area– Biomass (agb + bgb)– Soil Organic Carbon

• Sample Stratum– Forest Type Groups (>200)– Crown Density Classes (3)– Sample Points (20,000 for BC, 600 for SOC)

• Calculation– Algorithms for computing agb, bgb from wood or

timber or stand volume

Biomass Carbon Estimation: FSI Approach

•Forest Type MappingScale 1:50,000 (providing minimum mappable area of 1 ha)

Forest types (Champion and Seth Classification- 16 major forest types, 46 subgroups, ~200 subgroup types)

•Forest Cover Mapping Forest density (3 classes):

Very dense >70%, Moderately dense 40-70%,

Open 10-40%

Forest Cover Mapping Methodology in India Methodology

• forest cover assessment since 1987 on biennial cycle

• digital interpretation of satellite data

• intensive ground truthing

• change maps

• accuracy assessment

Analysis and output

• district-wise area figures

• change matrix

• area figures for hill and tribal districts

• maps available on 1:50,000 scale

•capturing forest cover down to 1 ha (Resolution of 23.5 m), using IRS-1D LISS III sensor

First country in the world to start an operational system for monitoring forest cover

2.5’x2.5’ grid

ASSESSMENT OF GROWING STOCK, BIOMASS CARBON IN INDIA’S FORESTS

State/UT wise

Stratum wise

Growing Stock Assessment for the Entire country

Map sheetsCalculation of volume in the

Grid

Location specific Inventory data

Aerial Photograph, Stock maps, Inventory

forms

Forest Cover Maps based on Satellite

dataDivided into Grids of 2½’x2½’

Density

Volume

Forest type/strata

2.5’x2.5’

ForestNon forest

Selection of Forested

Grids 2.½’x2.½’

Biomass Carbon

2.5’x2.5’

20,000 sample plots – Volume –Biomass (V*D)--Biomass Expansion factor -AGB) -- root shoot ratio - carbon factor (Estimated or IPCC default)

Accuracy• Forest cover assessment accuracies

>92 percent • National level assessment of growing

stock: sampling error of <3 per cent• Development of biomass expansion

factors and root: shoot ratio for more accurate estimates

Estimation of Growing Stocks at National Level

• Spatial data base in GIS comprising of 171,028 grid polygons of 2 ½’x 2½’ size (approximate area 18 km2)

• Polygon-wise estimation of growing stock using volume estimates for all the forested grids in the country

SOC Estimation: ICFRE-IIRS Approach

Forest Groups/major types : 16 Sub-groups : 46 Sub-group types : ~200 No of replications : 3 Total samples : 660 Depth of sampling : 0-30 cm Standard & uniform sampling and estimation procedure Area coverage of each subgroup types (221) Aggregation and upscaling to forest types (16) Estimation of variability and uncertainty

Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon

Field verification & soil sampling

Area of forest types/ major species

Forest types of India (C&S)

DBT/DOS ReportsLocal knowledgeOther data sources

Forest cover (FSI) Admin. boundary

GIS integration

Identification of possible subgroup types

Correction

Soil C content

Soil analysis

FSI

DB

T/D

OS

NR

SAG

loba

lO

ther

s

Expert decision

Soil C density & stock

Reporting

ANALYSIS

Regi stration (Spatial standards)

Regi stration (Spatial standards)

Regi stration (Spatial standards)

Possible Correlations

• Forest Type Groups [R] Biomass Carbon

• Forest Type Groups [R] Soil Carbon

Estimates of Forest Biomass Carbon Density of Indian Forests

Historical: 77.3 t/ha (1880)

Recent estimate by various workers based on remote sensing and ground based

verification: 32-65 t/ha

Current estimation of forest biomass carbon (in progress) by Forest Survey

of India

Carbon (t/ha) in biomass different forest types of India

(Derived from Tiwari and Singh 1987)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Range: 20-303 t/ha in different forest types

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

AM

OU

NT

OF

SOIL

O

RG

AN

IC C

AR

BON

(t/h

)

TWE TTF TSE TMD TDE TDD STP STBH SAF MWT MAS LSF HMT HDT

FOREST TYPES

AMOUNT OF SOIL ORGANIC CARBON WRT DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES

TWETTFTSETMDTDETDDSTPSTBHSAFMWTMASLSFHMTHDT

Tropical Thorn Forest TTF

Tropical Dry Evergreen TDE

Tropical Dry Deciduous TDD

Himalayan Dry Temperate HDT

Sub Alpine Forest SAF

Sub Tropical Pine STP

Tropical Moist Deciduous TMD

Sub Tropical Broadleaved Hill STBH

Moist Alpine Scrub MAS

Tropical Semi Evergreen TSE

Tropical Wet Evergreen TWE

Himalayan Moist Temperate HMT

Montane Wet Temperate MWT

Littoral Swamp Forest LSF

Range:

25.38 t/ha in Tropical Thorn Forest to 155.2 t/ha in Littoral Swamp Forest

25.4 Tropical Thorn Forest

155.2 Littoral Swamp Forest

Forest type Soil Organic Carbon (t/h)

2 Tropical Thorn Forest TTF 25.381

5 Tropical Dry Evergreen TDE 32.089

6 Tropical Dry Deciduous TDD 32.988

14 Himalayan Dry Temperate HDT 44.057

9 Sub Alpine Forest SAF 45.66

7 Sub Tropical Pine STP 46.788

4 Tropical Moist Deciduous TMD 58.756

8 Sub Tropical Broadleaved Hill STBH 70.804

11 Moist Alpine Scrub MAS 73.501

3 Tropical Semi Evergreen TSE 78.483

1 Tropical Wet Evergreen TWE 112.585

13 Himalayan Moist Temperate HMT 113.901

10 Montane Wet Temperate MWT 122.671

12 Littoral Swamp Forest LSF 155.22

SNC- India

Work in progress on approach followed for estimation of forest carbon stocks

Biomass Carbon+Soil Organic Carbon

Potentially a suitable methodology for monitoring and assessment of forest

carbon stocks under

REDD+

• For any query contact: jkishwan@nic.in

16 Forest Types of India (Champion and Seth)

Forest Cover Map 10-40%

40-70%

>70%

6363.5

6464.5

6565.5

6666.5

6767.5

6868.5

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Year

Fore

st C

over

India’s Forest Cover (Million Ha)

Nation –Wide Vector Coverage of Polygons (of extent 2.5’ x 2.5’)

• Total number of polygons – 171,028

• Attribute data has been linked to the polygons

SOC Estimation (ICFRE/IIRS Approach)

• Basic facts and criteria for SNC approach: Forest Groups/major types : 16 Sub-groups : 46 Sub-group types : 221 No of replications : 3 Total sample numbers : 660 Depth of sampling : 0-30 cm Standard & uniform sampling and estimation

procedure Area coverage of each major forest types with

reasonable accuracy and consistency with recent estimates, if any

Aggregation and up scaling to higher levels Estimation of variability and uncertainty

Positive Incentive

Carbon Saved=Carbon Added

• Same incentive for– 1 unit of carbon saved (RD)– 1 unit of carbon added (CN, SMF, A&R)

Methodology: Policy Elements (India)

• National Level Accounting Mechanism• Baseline Year/Starting Date: Flexibility (say 1990)• Reference Emissions Level• Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks

– Biomass Carbon– Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)

• Assessment at regular intervals (5 year National Level Forest Carbon Accounts)

Supportsdevelopment of a common methodology for all policy approaches, based on remote sensing and minimum ground verification to achieve defined

confidence level

Indian Case:Montreal to Bali

And Beyond

Indian Viewpoint on REDD• Indian viewpoint in consonance with

REDD principle• REDD being misinterpreted to constrict

its applicability• Always keen on inclusion of other

approaches for reducing emissions successfully adopted by many countries

Acceptance of India’s Position• India’s breakthrough in second UNFCCC workshop at

Cairns in Australia: 7-9 March 2007

• Put forth policy approach and scheme of incentives for rewarding nations for conserving and increasing forest carbon stocks

• India before Cairns practically had no allies to support incentives for forest conservation

• Countries post-Cairns started speaking of incentives to benefit more countries including nations with strong conservation background (China, Congo Basin Countries, Cameroon, PNG, Bolivia, Mexico, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan)

Sustainable Management of Forest

• Improvement in existing cover• Increase in forest/tree cover

(harvest< increment) = net addition• Net GHG removals estimation with

reference to starting date (baseline)

SMF means state of increment in forest carbon stocks

Parties Submissions on REDD

(21 March 2008)• FCCC/SBSTA/2008/MISC.4 and Add.1–3• Most submissions advocate

– Use of IPCC GPG (LULUCF) 2003– Remote Sensing (RS) based assessment and

monitoring– Supported by robust sampling and ground

truthing– Need for continuous data collection– Sustainable management of forests and forest

conservation– Need to define deforestation and degradation– Which policy issues?

Statusof

Issues

Other Policy issues Support Market based mechanism (Costa Rica)

Cap and trade market mechanism (Congo basin countries)

Satellite based continuous data collection (Japan)

Reference level based on historical changes in forest resources (Japan)

Nested baseline specific to different regions in a country (Nepal)

Incentive for C stocking and sequestration (Nepal)

Also address degradation of C stock within forest (Switzerland)

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2 equivalent

• Energy Supply 25.9%

• Industry 19.4%

• Forestry 17.4%

• Agriculture 13.5• Residential and 7.9%

Commercial building

• Waste and Wastewater 2.8%

The Agenda of REDD• Agenda Item on “Reducing emissions from

deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to stimulate action” first presented in COP 11 Montreal (2005) in response to request of Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica

• COP11 invited parties and accredited observers to submit views on related issues and also to organize a workshop

Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to

stimulate actionUNFCCC sponsored Workshops: Rome: 30 Aug-1 Sept 2006, Cairns: 7-9 March 2007, Tokyo: 25-27 June 2008Followed by number of UN expert meetings

and consultations

S. No.

Countries Number of Countries

Area 1,000 ha Annual Change

1990 2005 1,000 ha/ year

%

1 Non Annex Countries with increasing forest cover and other wooded lands

27 443,092 479,624 2,436 +0.55

2 Non Annex Countries with decreasing forest cover and other wooded lands

74 2484,885 2283,436 13,430 - 0.54

3 Countries with negligible or No change

90 - - - -

Change in extent of Forest Cover and wooded lands 1990-2005

(Excluding Annex I Countries, Data Source: FAO, 2005)

This is a presentation from ICFRE

For Further Details Contact: rawatvrs@icfre.org

Projected trend in forest cover under the current trend scenario (Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8019

87

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

Year

Fore

st C

over

(Mha

)

Projected Afforestation under current trend scenario

(Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1951

1961

1970

1979

1986

1992

1997

2000

2002

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Year

Cum

ulat

ive

Area

Affo

rest

ed (M

ha)

Model based projection of carbon stocks in India’s forests and tree cover, as per studies of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (2006), estimates increase in carbon stocks as contained in the country’s forests from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC in 2030

Carbon Stock Projection: Indian Scenario

Compensation Claim: IndiaProposed policy approach of

Compensated Conservation seeks incentive for

1. Incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between 2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)

2. Baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006

11 High Forest Cover Countries

97.7 91.8 90.6 89.4 88.9 87.6 84.5 83.3 80 77.6 76.7

020406080

100120

Surina

m

French

Guia

na

Micron

esia

America

m Sam

oa

Seych

elles

Palau

Gabon

Pitcair

ns

Turks a

nd C

aicos

Islan

ds

Solomon

Islan

ds

Guyan

ae

Based on Policy Approaches and Practices

HFLD, LFLDCN, SMF

IFC+CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD

GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS

CONSTANT STOCKS

CHANGING STOCKS

INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL

HFLD: High Forest cover Low deforestationLFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestationIFC: Increase in forest coverCN: Forest ConservationSMF: Sustainable Management of Forests

HFHD: High Forest cover High DeforestationLFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation

State of Forest Carbon Stocks A fn of

CONSTANT STOCKScs

DECREMENTAL STOCKSDS

INCREMENTAL STOCKSIS

CO2

c

Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF

Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD

BaseLine

Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS

Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS

Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS

All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks

Comprehensive approach

All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks

C

C

REDD Mechanism Beneficial to all Countries?Comprehensive Approach

(All Contributors to SFC Equally Important)

Incentives/compensation for all necessaryArguments for incentives/compensation

Constant stocks (HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, opportunity cost of conversion to

more beneficial land useIncremental stocks (IFC, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, cost incurred in additional plantations,

revenue loss due to no or reduced loggingDecremental stocks (HFHD, LFHD)– Revenue loss due to reduced logging

Whether Comprehensive Mechanism is possible?

Once comprehensive approach is accepted which is logical (Bali was watershed)

• Inaccessible, undisturbed forests need to be counted provided costs on preserving their present state are incurred

• Conservation projects/areas would need to be counted against commitment for continuing policy of conservation

• It is not important what developed countries say but more important is logical comprehensive approach enshrined in BAP

• If FC, EFCS have a bearing on state of global forest carbon, these cannot be ignored

Model based projection of carbon stocks in India’s forests and tree cover, as per studies of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (2006), estimates increase in carbon stocks as contained in the country’s forests from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC in 2030

Carbon Stock Projection: Indian Scenario

Proposed policy approach of Compensated

Conservation seeks incentive for

1. incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between

2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79

GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)

2. baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006

Compensation Claim: India

Forest C Pool