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INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Proposed Methodology and Action Plan to Develop the Impact Assessment and
Menu of Adaptation Options for Uzbekistan
James NeumannPrincipal
May 19, 2010
2INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Overview
• Objectives of the study
• Introduce the Industrial Economics team of consultants (see Handout 1)
• Key Steps in the Process (see Handout 4)• Initial Mission• Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Agriculture• Initial stakeholder consultations• Capacity Building Workshop(s)• Develop Initial Menu of Adaptation Options• Second stakeholder consultations and National Workshop
• Goals for this visit
3INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Objectives of the Study
“Enhance the ability of four countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments.”
• The four countries are:• Albania
• Moldova
• Macedonia
• Uzbekistan
• Strategies used:• raising awareness of the threat
• analyzing potential impacts and adaptation responses
• building capacity among national and local stakeholders
• A key product of consultant team’s work is a menu of adaptation measures for crop and livestock production sector.
4INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Key Staff of the Industrial Economics Consulting Team
• James Neumann, IEc, Project Manager• Kenneth Strzepek, Univ. Colorado and MIT,
Technical Director• Ana Iglesias, Univ. of Madrid, Agronomist and
Crop Modeler• Peter Droogers, FutureWater, Crop and Water
Resources Modeler• Janusz Kindler, Warsaw University of Technology,
Water Resources Expert• Richard Adams, Oregon State Univ. and Brent
Boehlert, IEc, Agricultural Economists• Samuel Fankhauser, Grantham Research Institute
on Climate Change and the Environment, Economist & Expert Reviewer
• Andrew Schwarz, IEc, Participatory Process Expert
5INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3 through 5
Month 5
Month 6 through 7
Month 8
Month 9
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop
Introductory Meetings
Data Request
Develop Initial Climate Impact Assessment
Selected Impact
Analyses
Stakeholder Consultation 1
Capacity Building Workshop
Stakeholder Consultation 2
National Dissemination andConsensus Building Workshop
Develop Final “Response to Climate Change” Report
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
InceptionReport
Time Frame In-Country Events Industrial Economics (IEc)Team Prepares
Local Team Activities
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3 through 5
Month 5
Month 6 through 7
Month 8
Month 9
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop
Introductory Meetings
Data RequestData
Request
Develop Initial Climate Impact Assessment
Selected Impact
Analyses
Stakeholder Consultation 1
Capacity Building Workshop
Stakeholder Consultation 2
National Dissemination andConsensus Building Workshop
Develop Final “Response to Climate Change” Report
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
InceptionReport
Time Frame In-Country Events Industrial Economics (IEc)Team Prepares
Local Team Activities
6INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Initial Mission
• Learn from you about the Uzbekistan context:• What are the key crops and livestock?• Which of these seem particularly vulnerable to
climate change?• What has been done so far to respond?• What major policies are under consideration?
• Identify data to support the modeling studies
• Identify key people and institutions to coordinate and jointly conduct the study
• Concludes with a detailed Inception Report and Data Request
7INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Agriculture
• Climate Projections – three scenarios from among the 56 IPCC AR4 GCM options
• Crop Modeling – Process-based models (e.g., AquaCrop) for select crops
• Water Resource Availability “Screening Tool” – CLIRUN – projects runoff for key basins
• Basin-level Water Modeling – WEAP for one or two large basins in each country
8INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Dimensions of the Impact Assessment
• Geographic Scope: Agro-ecological zone, with representative crop modeling for each region.
• Crops: Selected field crops/cereals, vegetables, fruit and nut trees, fiber crops – also livestock focus.
• Future Climate: Three future climate scenarios, wet/median/dry, reflect the range of GCM outcomes at the country level.
• Time: Decadal averages from 2010 to 2050 (i.e., 2015, 2025, 2035, 2045)
• Economic Baseline: current conditions/markets with FAO projections of market prices through 2050.
9INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Example of a Water Model Interface (WEAP)
10INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Capacity Building Workshop
• Conduct a formal training workshop at a central location for a specific impact assessment technique.
• Candidates include:
• Process-based crop modeling (e.g., AquaCrop)
• Screening tools for crop and water assessment (e.g., CLIRUN, CLICROP)
• Basin-level water resources modeling (e.g., WEAP)
11INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3 through 5
Month 5
Month 6 through 7
Month 8
Month 9
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop
Introductory Meetings
Data Request
Develop Initial Climate Impact Assessment
Selected Impact
Analyses
Stakeholder Consultation 1
Capacity Building Workshop
Stakeholder Consultation 2
National Dissemination andConsensus Building Workshop
Develop Final “Response to Climate Change” Report
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
InceptionReport
Time Frame In-Country Events Industrial Economics (IEc)Team Prepares
Local Team Activities
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3 through 5
Month 5
Month 6 through 7
Month 8
Month 9
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop
Introductory Meetings
Data RequestData
Request
Develop Initial Climate Impact Assessment
Selected Impact
Analyses
Stakeholder Consultation 1
Capacity Building Workshop
Stakeholder Consultation 2
National Dissemination andConsensus Building Workshop
Develop Final “Response to Climate Change” Report
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
InceptionReport
Time Frame In-Country Events Industrial Economics (IEc)Team Prepares
Local Team Activities
12INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Stakeholder Consultations
• Conducted in each AEZ, two sets of meetings
• At first meeting, present draft impact results for crop yields and water availability under climate change.
• Then, ask:
• Experts/analysts: Do the crop, livestock, water modeling results look reasonable to you?
• Farmers: What options would you employ in response to these outcomes? What other ideas do you have?
13INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Develop Initial Menu of Adaptation Options
• Take results of impact assessment and stakeholder consultations.
• Generate farm-level estimates of net benefits of adaptation options, using readily available data and FAO price projections
• Rank initial set of adaptation options based on net benefit criteria
• Add a second, qualitative ranking based on the recommendations of our expert team
• Experts will also add country-level policy options (e.g., changes to water allocation scheme) to the menu
14INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Overview of Approach
15INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Second Stakeholder Consultations & National Workshop
• At second consultation meeting, present our draft adaptation menu, ask:
• Which of the recommended options do you favor?
• Do the economic parameters we used (e.g., price of fertilizer inputs, cost of irrigation improvements)?
• What barriers do you see to implementing the recommendations (economic, institutional, policy)?
• What options are missing from our list?
• Ask the same set of questions at the National Workshop
16INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3 through 5
Month 5
Month 6 through 7
Month 8
Month 9
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop
Introductory Meetings
Data Request
Develop Initial Climate Impact Assessment
Selected Impact
Analyses
Stakeholder Consultation 1
Capacity Building Workshop
Stakeholder Consultation 2
National Dissemination andConsensus Building Workshop
Develop Final “Response to Climate Change” Report
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
InceptionReport
Time Frame In-Country Events Industrial Economics (IEc)Team Prepares
Local Team Activities
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3 through 5
Month 5
Month 6 through 7
Month 8
Month 9
Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop
Introductory Meetings
Data RequestData
Request
Develop Initial Climate Impact Assessment
Selected Impact
Analyses
Stakeholder Consultation 1
Capacity Building Workshop
Stakeholder Consultation 2
National Dissemination andConsensus Building Workshop
Develop Final “Response to Climate Change” Report
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
DevelopInitial Menu of
AdaptationOptions
InceptionReport
Time Frame In-Country Events Industrial Economics (IEc)Team Prepares
Local Team Activities
17INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Goals for this Visit
•Identify most important and potentially vulnerable crops and livestock in Uzbekistan, based on your current experience
•Make contact with key institutions and people
•Discuss available data
•LISTEN AND LEARN!
IEcINDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
617.354.0074