+ All Categories
Home > Documents > January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!!...

January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!!...

Date post: 11-Oct-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 0 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
50
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1263316 "#$%&’()(*+ "#$%&,%*-%&’. /0% 12$3,- 45 637893&- "#$%&,%*-%&’ 4* :4;< 93’’ 1*;%= 3*; >?%’(-< January 1, 2010 @03&7%’ @4#&-%23*,0%A B%$3&-2%*- 45 C,4*42(,’D E*(F%&’(-< 45 G4&-0 @3&47(*3 3- H&%%*’?4&4 IJ>J :4= KLMLN H&%%*’?4&4D G@ KOPQK ,R,4#&-%S#*,+J%;# >55(,%T UUL8UUP8UVMQW X3=T UUL8UUP8PQYV Z&- @3&;%* B%$3&-2%*- 45 C,4*42(,’ 3*; :#’(*%’’D [04;%’ @477%+% KQQQ GJ I3&\]3< 9%2$0(’ /G UYMMK ,3&;%*3S&04;%’J%;# >55(,%T VQM8YPU8UYKVW X3=T VQM8YPU8UOUL Abstract [%’%3&,0 3--&(?#-%’ 2#,0 45 -0% &(’% (* 4?%’(-< -4 -%,0*474+(,37 $&4+&%’’ &%;#,(*+ -0% ,4’- 45 544; ,4*’#2$-(4*J 6% %=32(*% -0(’ 0<$4-0%’(’ (* -0% ,4*-%=- 45 63723&- "#$%&,%*-%&’D ]04’% 3;F3*,%2%*-’ (* &%-3(7 74+(’-(,’ 03F% -&3*’73-%; -4 ’#?’-3*-(37 &%;#,-(4*’ (* 544; $&(,%’J E’(*+ ;3-3 5&42 -0% :%03F(4&37 [(’\ X3,-4& "#&F%(773*,% "<’-%2 23-,0%; ](-0 63723&- "#$%&,%*-%& %*-&< ;3-%’ 3*; 74,3-(4*’D ]% %=32(*% -0% %55%,-’ 45 "#$%&,%*-%&’ 4* ?4;< 23’’ (*;%= ^:91_ 3*; 4?%’(-<J 6% 3,,4#*- 54& -0% %*;4+%*%(-< 45 63723&- "#$%&,%*-%& 74,3-(4*’ ](-0 3* (*’-&#2%*-37 F3&(3?7%’ 3$$&43,0 -03- %=$74(-’ -0% #*(‘#% +%4+&3$0(,37 $3--%&* 45 "#$%&,%*-%& %=$3*’(4* 3&4#*; 63723&-a’ 0%3;‘#3&-%&’ (* :%*-4*F(77%D Z&\3*’3’J Z* 3;;(-(4*37 "#$%&,%*-%& $%& MQQDQQQ &%’(;%*-’ (*,&%3’%’ 3F%&3+% :91 ?< QJKN #*(-’ 3*; -0% 4?%’(-< &3-% ?< KJP $%&,%*-3+% $4(*-’J /0%’% &%’#7-’ (2$7< -03- -0% $&47(5%&3-(4* 45 63723&- "#$%&,%*-%&’ %=$73(*’ MMb 45 -0% &(’% (* 4?%’(-< ’(*,% -0% 73-% MVYQ’D ?#- -0% &%’#7-(*+ (*,&%3’% (* 2%;(,37 %=$%*;(-#&%’ 455’%-’ 4*7< 3 ’2377 $4&-(4* 45 ,4*’#2%&’a ’3F(*+’ 5&42 ’04$$(*+ 3- "#$%&,%*-%&’J c%<]4&;’T 63723&-D 637893&-D ’#$%&,%*-%&D 4?%’(-<D ?4;< ]%(+0-D ?4;< 23’’ (*;%= dCe @4;%’T 1MQ A8 @4&&%’$4*;(*+ Z#-04&J d47%*% @4#&-%23*,0%D [#’’%77 @&3(+D 9(\% f3224,\D "-%$0%* f4773*;D I3-&(,\ 9,Z7F3*30D g3* I032D @0&(’ [#02D 3*; c%* "*4];%* $&4F(;%; #’%5#7 ,422%*-’J "03**4* @3&;%*D B(3*3 @0%*+D 3*; d47%*% @4#&-%23*,0% $&4F(;%; %=,%77%*- &%’%3&,0 3’’(’-3*,%D ]0(7% 93774&< [355%*’?%&+%& 3’’(’-%; ](-0 $&%$3&3-(4* 45 3* %3&7< 23*#’,&($-J Z*;&%] X4’’8H&3*- $&4F(;%; (*;(’$%*’3?7% 3’’(’-3*,% ](-0 -0% H1" ’45-]3&% #’%; -4 $&%$3&% X(+#&%’ K8MQJ 6% 3&% +&3-%5#7 -4 $3&-(,($3*-’ 3- -0% KQQO 9(’’4#&( g377%< C,4*42(, Z’’4,(3-(4*D -0% KQQY I#?7(, @04(,% "4,(%-<D 3*; KQQY Z’’4,(3-(4* 45 I&(F3-% C*-%&$&(’% C;#,3-(4* ,4*5%&%*,%’ 3*; ’%2(*3& $3&-(,($3*-’ 3- -0% [%’%3&,0 /&(3*+7% 1*’-(-#-%D -0% E*(F%&’(-< 45 "4#-0%&* 9(’’(’’($$(D -0% E*(F%&’(-< 45 9%2$0(’D :3<74& E*(F%&’(-<D /%=3’ @0&(’-(3* E*(F%&’(-<D -0% E*(F%&’(-< 45 9(’’(’’($$(D -0% E*(F%&’(-< 45 Z73?323D -0% E*(F%&’(-< 45 G%F3;38e3’ g%+3’D -0% E*(F%&’(-< 45 G4&-0 @3&47(*3 3- H&%%*’?4&4D 3*; -0% Z2%&(,3* 1*’-(-#-% 54& C,4*42(, [%’%3&,0 54& F37#3?7% ,422%*-’ 3*; ’#++%’-(4*’J 6% 37’4 -03*\ /0423’ f472%’D @03; "<F%&’4*D 3*; Z#’-3* H447’?%% 54& ’03&(*+ -0%(& ;3-3J C3&7(%& F%&’(4*’ 45 -0(’ $3$%& ]%&% $&%’%*-%; ](-0 -0% -(-7%’ h[(’\< :#’(*%’’. 637893&- 3*; [(’\< f%37-0 :%03F(4&’i 3*; h/0% "\(**< 4* :(+ :4= [%-3(7(*+T 63723&-D 63&%04#’% @7#?’D 3*; >?%’(-<Ji /0% $&%$3&3-(4* 3*; $&%’%*-3-(4* 45 -0(’ &%’%3&,0 ]3’ ’#$$4&-%; ?< +&3*-’ 5&42 63’0(*+-4* E*(F%&’(-< (* "3(*- e4#(’D [04;%’ @477%+%D -0% 1*;%$%*;%*- 1*’-(-#-%D -0% 1*’-(-#-% 54& f#23*% "-#;(%’D -0% Z’’4,(3-(4* 45 I&(F3-% C*-%&$&(’% C;#,3-(4*D 3*; -0% Z2%&(,3* 1*’-(-#-% 54& C,4*42(, [%’%3&,0J
Transcript
Page 1: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1263316

!!

"#$%&'()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&'.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!:4;<!93''!1*;%=!3*;!>?%'(-<!!

January 1, 2010

@03&7%'!@4#&-%23*,0%A!B%$3&-2%*-!45!C,4*42(,'D!E*(F%&'(-<!45!G4&-0!@3&47(*3!3-!H&%%*'?4&4!

IJ>J!:4=!KLMLN!H&%%*'?4&4D!G@!KOPQK!,R,4#&-%S#*,+J%;#!

>55(,%T!UUL8UUP8UVMQW!X3=T!UUL8UUP8PQYV!!

Z&-!@3&;%*!

B%$3&-2%*-!45!C,4*42(,'!3*;!:#'(*%''D![04;%'!@477%+%!KQQQ!GJ!I3&\]3<!9%2$0('!/G!UYMMK!,3&;%*3S&04;%'J%;#!

>55(,%T!VQM8YPU8UYKVW!X3=T!VQM8YPU8UOUL!

Abstract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`#%!+%4+&3$0(,37!$3--%&*!45!"#$%&,%*-%&!%=$3*'(4*!3&4#*;!63723&-a'!0%3;`#3&-%&'!(*!:%*-4*F(77%D!Z&\3*'3'J!!Z*!3;;(-(4*37!"#$%&,%*-%&!$%&!

MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!(*,&%3'%'!3F%&3+%!:91!?<!QJKN!#*(-'!3*;!-0%!4?%'(-<!&3-%!?<!KJP!$%&,%*-3+%!$4(*-'J!!/0%'%!&%'#7-'!(2$7<!-03-!-0%!$&47(5%&3-(4*!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!%=$73(*'!MMb!45!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<!'(*,%!-0%!73-%!MVYQ'D!?#-!-0%!&%'#7-(*+!(*,&%3'%!(*!2%;(,37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!455'%-'!4*7<!

3!'2377!$4&-(4*!45!,4*'#2%&'a!'3F(*+'!5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!!!

c%<]4&;'T!63723&-D!637893&-D!'#$%&,%*-%&D!4?%'(-<D!?4;<!]%(+0-D!?4;<!23''!(*;%=!dCe!@4;%'T!1MQ!

A8!@4&&%'$4*;(*+!Z#-04&J!!d47%*%!@4#&-%23*,0%D![#''%77!@&3(+D!9(\%!f3224,\D!"-%$0%*!f4773*;D!I3-&(,\!9,Z7F3*30D!g3*!I032D!@0&('![#02D!3*;!c%*!"*4];%*!$&4F(;%;!#'%5#7!,422%*-'J!!"03**4*!@3&;%*D!B(3*3!@0%*+D!3*;!d47%*%!@4#&-%23*,0%!$&4F(;%;!%=,%77%*-!&%'%3&,0!3''('-3*,%D!]0(7%!93774&<![355%*'?%&+%&!3''('-%;!](-0!$&%$3&3-(4*!45!3*!%3&7<!23*#',&($-J!!Z*;&%]!X4''8H&3*-!$&4F(;%;!(*;('$%*'3?7%!3''('-3*,%!](-0!-0%!H1"!'45-]3&%!#'%;!-4!$&%$3&%!X(+#&%'!K8MQJ!!6%!3&%!+&3-%5#7!-4!$3&-(,($3*-'!3-!-0%!KQQO!9(''4#&(!g377%<!C,4*42(,!Z''4,(3-(4*D!-0%!KQQY!I#?7(,!@04(,%!"4,(%-<D!3*;!KQQY!Z''4,(3-(4*!45!I&(F3-%!C*-%&$&('%!C;#,3-(4*!,4*5%&%*,%'!3*;!'%2(*3&!$3&-(,($3*-'!3-!-0%![%'%3&,0!/&(3*+7%!1*'-(-#-%D!-0%!E*(F%&'(-<!45!"4#-0%&*!9(''(''($$(D!-0%!E*(F%&'(-<!45!9%2$0('D!:3<74&!E*(F%&'(-<D!/%=3'!@0&('-(3*!E*(F%&'(-<D!-0%!E*(F%&'(-<!45!9(''(''($$(D!-0%!E*(F%&'(-<!45!Z73?323D!-0%!E*(F%&'(-<!45!G%F3;38e3'!g%+3'D!-0%!E*(F%&'(-<!45!G4&-0!@3&47(*3!3-!H&%%*'?4&4D!3*;!-0%!Z2%&(,3*!1*'-(-#-%!54&!C,4*42(,![%'%3&,0!54&!F37#3?7%!,422%*-'!3*;!'#++%'-(4*'J!!6%!37'4!-03*\!/0423'!f472%'D!@03;!"<F%&'4*D!3*;!Z#'-3*!H447'?%%!54&!'03&(*+!-0%(&!;3-3J!!C3&7(%&!F%&'(4*'!45!-0('!$3$%&!]%&%!$&%'%*-%;!](-0!-0%!-(-7%'!h[('\<!:#'(*%''.!!637893&-!3*;![('\<!f%37-0!:%03F(4&'i!3*;!h/0%!"\(**<!4*!:(+!:4=![%-3(7(*+T!63723&-D!63&%04#'%!@7#?'D!3*;!>?%'(-<Ji!!/0%!$&%$3&3-(4*!3*;!$&%'%*-3-(4*!45!-0('!&%'%3&,0!]3'!'#$$4&-%;!?<!+&3*-'!5&42!63'0(*+-4*!E*(F%&'(-<!(*!"3(*-!e4#('D![04;%'!@477%+%D!-0%!1*;%$%*;%*-!1*'-(-#-%D!-0%!1*'-(-#-%!54&!f#23*%!"-#;(%'D!-0%!Z''4,(3-(4*!45!I&(F3-%!C*-%&$&('%!C;#,3-(4*D!3*;!-0%!Z2%&(,3*!1*'-(-#-%!54&!C,4*42(,![%'%3&,0J!! !!

Page 2: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1263316

M!!

1. Introduction and Background

[('(*+!4?%'(-<!('!?4-0!3!$#?7(,!0%37-0!3*;!$#?7(,!5(*3*,%!,4*,%&*J!!e4]%&!544;!$&(,%'!3*;!

%3'(%&!3,,%''!-4!544;!3&%!$73#'(?7%!%=$73*3-(4*'!54&!&('(*+!4?%'(-<D!3*;!-0%!&('%!45!h:(+!:4=i!

,03(*'!('!4*%!45!-0%!24'-!(2$4&-3*-!&%-3(7!-&%*;'!45!-0%!$4'-864&7;!63&!11!%&3J!!6%!$&%'%*-!

%F(;%*,%!-03-!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'a!CF%&<!B3<!e4]!I&(,%'!54&!544;!0%7$!%=$73(*!'04$$%&'a!

73&+%&!]3('-7(*%'!'(*,%!-0%<!5(&'-!3$$%3&%;!(*!-0%!73-%!MVYQ'D!?#-!-0%!,4'-!45!-0%!(*,&%3'%!(*!4?%'(-<!

3--&(?#-3?7%!-4!"#$%&,%*-%&'!('!'2377!&%73-(F%!-4!-0%!'3F(*+'!5&42!63723&-8(*;#,%;!74]%&!$&(,%'J!

:%-]%%*!MVLQ!3*;!KQQLD!-0%!$%&,%*-3+%!45!-0%!$4$#73-(4*!,4*'(;%&%;!4F%&]%(+0-!&4'%!

5&42!PUb!-4!LObD!]0(7%!-0%!4?%'(-<!&3-%!+&%]!5&42!MUb!-4!UPb!^X7%+37!%-!37D!MVVYW!G3-(4*37!

@%*-%&!45!f%37-0!"-3-('-(,'D!KQQY_JM!!>?%'(-<!03'!?%%*!7(*\%;!-4!0(+0%&!$&%F37%*,%!45!;('%3'%'!

'#,0!3'!0(+0!?744;!$&%''#&%D!;(3?%-%'D!0%3&-!;('%3'%D!3*;!'-&4\%!^"-&#2D!KQQK_J!!/0%!

,4*'%`#%*,%'!45!4?%'(-<!(*,7#;%!3*!%'-(23-%;!MMKDQQQ!;%3-0'!3*;!jMMO!?(77(4*!(*!2%;(,37!

%=$%*;(-#&%'!$%&!<%3&D!](-0!3?4#-!0375!45!-0%'%!%=$%*;(-#&%'!$3(;!54&!?<!9%;(,3&%!3*;!9%;(,3(;!

^X7%+37!%-!37D!KQQNW!EJ"J!B%$3&-2%*-!45!f%37-0!3*;!f#23*!"%&F(,%'D!KQQMW!X(*\%7'-%(*!%-!37D!

KQQU_J!!!

>?%'(-<!('!$3&-(,#73&7<!32%*3?7%!-4!%,4*42(,!3*37<'('!?%,3#'%!(-!('!-0%!;(&%,-!&%'#7-!45!

(*;(F(;#37!,04(,%'!(*!-0%!53,%!45!,03*+(*+!(*,%*-(F%'!^I0(7($'4*!3*;!I4'*%&D!KQQUT"YO8"YY_J!!

6%(+0-!+3(*!('!,3#'%;!?<!3*!(2?373*,%!?%-]%%*!h,374&(%'!(*i!3*;!h,374&(%'!4#-Di!23\(*+!(-!-0%!

5#*,-(4*!45!%,4*42(,!F3&(3?7%'!'#,0!3'!-0%!$&(,%!45!,374&(%'!3*;!-0%!4$$4&-#*(-<!,4'-!45!%=%&,('%J!!

/0%!%2%&+(*+!,4*'%*'#'!('!-03-!-%,0*474+(,37!$&4+&%''!03'!37-%&%;!-0%'%!F3&(3?7%'!(*!]3<'!

7%3;(*+!-4!]%(+0-!+3(*JK!!X4&!(*'-3*,%D!I0(7($'4*!3*;!I4'*%&!^KQQU_!3*;!e3\;3]3773!3*;!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!M!"42%4*%!('!,4*'(;%&%;!h4F%&]%(+0-i!(5!0%&!?4;<!23''!(*;%=!^:91!k!]%(+0-!(*!\(74+&32'!;(F(;%;!?<!0%(+0-!(*!2%-%&'!'`#3&%;_!('!+&%3-%&!-03*!4&!%`#37!-4!KN!3*;!!4?%'%!(5!0%&!:91!('!+&%3-%&!-03*!4&!%`#37!-4!UQJ!K!/0%!7(-%&3-#&%!4*!-0%!%,4*42(,!,3#'%'!45!4?%'(-<!('!-44!%=-%*'(F%!-4!5#77<!'#&F%<!0%&%J!!"%%![4'(*!^KQQY_!54&!3!24&%!,42$&%0%*'(F%!&%F(%]J!

Page 3: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

K!!

I0(7($'4*!^KQQK_!'#++%'-!-03-!&('(*+!4?%'(-<!(*!-0%!E*(-%;!"-3-%'!('!-0%!&%'#7-!45!5377(*+!&%37!544;!

$&(,%'!;#%!-4!(*,&%3'%;!3+&(,#7-#&37!$&4;#,-(F(-<!3*;!3!24F%2%*-!5&42!R4?'!&%`#(&(*+!$0<'(,37!

3,-(F(-<!-4!24&%!'%;%*-3&<!%2$74<2%*-J!!@#-7%&!%-!37!^KQQU_!3&+#%!-03-!&('(*+!4?%'(-<!,3*!?%!

3--&(?#-%;!-4!-%,0*474+(,37!(**4F3-(4*'!-03-!03F%!&%;#,%;!-0%!-(2%!,4'-!45!544;!$&%$3&3-(4*J!!@04#!

%-!37!^KQQP_!7(*\!'%F%&37!53,-4&'!&%57%,-(F%!45!-%,0*474+(,37!$&4+&%''!l!(*,7#;(*+!-0%!5377(*+!$&(,%!

45!+&4,%&<!544;D!-0%!5377(*+!$&(,%!45!&%'-3#&3*-!544;D!3*;!-0%!&('(*+!*#2?%&!45!&%'-3#&3*-'!l!-4!-0%!

(*,&%3'(*+!4?%'(-<!&3-%J!!!

6%!,4*-&(?#-%!-4!-0%!4?%'(-<!7(-%&3-#&%!?<!'#++%'-(*+!3*!3;;(-(4*37!2%,03*('2!-0&4#+0!

]0(,0!-%,0*474+(,37!$&4+&%''!23<!03F%!,4*-&(?#-%;!-4!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<J!!60(7%!-0%!7(-%&3-#&%!

03'!%2$03'()%;!-0%!&47%!45!3;F3*,%2%*-'!(*!544;!production!-%,0*474+<!(*!74]%&(*+!544;!$&(,%'!

3*;!(*,&%3'(*+!4?%'(-<D!?<!'-#;<(*+!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!]%!%=32(*%!-0%!&47%!45!3;F3*,%2%*-'!

(*!544;!distribution!-%,0*474+<J!!/0%!63723&-!&%F47#-(4*!('!5#*;32%*-377<!3!&%F47#-(4*!(*!&%-3(7!

74+('-(,'W!3'!c3&R3*%*!^KQQLTMNK_!,03&3,-%&()%'!(-D!h63723&-!;4%'!*4-!23*#53,-#&%!4&!'4#&,%!

74,377<D!?#-!2%&%7<!3,-'!3'!3!+74?37!,4224;(-<!'#$$7<!,03(*D!;('-&(?#-(*+!+74?377<!'4#&,%;!+44;'!

-4!74,37!23&\%-'Ji!!/0%!,42$3*<a'!23R4&!(**4F3-(4*'!03F%!?%%*!(*!(-'!;('-&(?#-(4*!,03**%7'D!](-0!

'-4&%!74,3-(4*'D!]3&%04#'%!74,3-(4*'D!3*;!74+('-(,'!$&3,-(,%'!$73**%;!(*!'#,0!3!]3<!3'!-4!

2(*(2()%!]3'-%;!24-(4*J!!/0%'%!(**4F3-(4*'!-&3*'73-%!-4!74]%&!$&(,%'!l!$&(,%'!'4!2#,0!74]%&!

-03-!f3#'23*!3*;!e%(?-3+!^KQQPD!KQQN_!'#++%'-!-0%!@4*'#2%&!I&(,%!1*;%=!('!2('82%3'#&%;!

?%,3#'%!45!*4-!'#55(,(%*-7<!3,,4#*-(*+!54&!63723&-J!!!!!

"(*,%!MVLKD!63723&-!03'!+&4]*!5&42!3!'(*+7%!'-4&%!(*![4+%&'D!Z&\3*'3'!(*-4!-0%!]4&7;a'!

73&+%'-!&%-3(7%&J!!/0%!;(',4#*-!'-4&%D!63723&-a'!4&(+(*37!?#'(*%''!24;%7D!54,#'%'!$&(23&(7<!4*!

,4*'#2%&!+44;'!7(\%!,74-0(*+!3*;!%7%,-&4*(,'J!!/0%!"#$%&,%*-%&D!]0(,0!;%?#-%;!(*!MVYY!(*!

Page 4: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

U!!

63'0(*+-4*D!9(''4#&(D!3;;'!3!5#778'%&F(,%!+&4,%&<!'-4&%!-4!,&%3-%!h4*%8'-4$!'04$$(*+JiU!!/0%!

*#2?%&!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!03'!&('%*!&3$(;7<!'(*,%!-0%!%3&7<!MVVQ'D!,4(*,(;(*+!](-0!3*!(*,&%3'%!(*!

-0%!+&4]-0!&3-%!45!4?%'(-<!-03-!('!$3&-(,#73&7<!%F(;%*-!(*!-0%!MVVQ'!^X(+#&%!M_J!!Z'!45!KQQVD!

63723&-!4$%&3-%;!YUU!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'D!KDOQN!"#$%&,%*-%&'D!LQN!2%2?%&'84*7<!"32a'!@7#?!

]3&%04#'%'D!3*;!MNM!'2377%&!+&4,%&<!'-4&%'!,377%;!hG%(+0?4&044;!93&\%-'i!(*!-0%!EJ"J!!

/4+%-0%&!-0%'%!'-4&%'!3,,4#*-%;!54&!4F%&!jPQQ!?(77(4*!(*!3**#37!'37%'JP!!/03*\'!24'-7<!-4!-0%!

"#$%&,%*-%&D!63723&-!03'!?%,42%!3!54&,%!(*!-0%!+&4,%&<!23&\%-J!!63723&-a'!+&4,%&<!23&\%-!

'03&%!3F%&3+%;!MPJVb!(*!KQQP!3,&4''!LY!2%-&4$47(-3*!3&%3'D!3*;!(-'!+&4,%&<!F47#2%!]3'!4F%&!

-](,%!-0%!'37%'!F47#2%!45!-0%!73&+%'-!'#$%&23&\%-!,03(*!c&4+%&!^e4&;D!KQQLD!$$J!NN8LK_J!!!

63723&-!03'!3--&3,-%;!3--%*-(4*!(*!-0%!',0473&7<!7(-%&3-#&%!3*;!(*!-0%!$4$#73&!$&%''JN!!/0%!

24'-!4?F(4#'!23*(5%'-3-(4*!45!]03-!X('023*!^KQQL_!,377'!The Wal-Mart Effect!('!-0%!,42$3*<a'!

-&3;(-(4*37!$47(,<!45!hCF%&<!B3<!e4]!I&(,%'Ji!!G#2%&4#'!'-#;(%'!03F%!;4,#2%*-%;!63723&-a'!

*%+3-(F%!(2$3,-!4*!$&(,%'!^f3#'23*!3*;!e%(?-3+D!KQQPD!KQQNW!:3'\%&!KQQN?W!:3'\%&!3*;!G4%7!

KQQO_J!!f3#'23*!3*;!e%(?-3+!^KQQP_!,(-%!;3-3!5&42!'-#;(%'!'04](*+!-03-D!%F%*!35-%&!3,,4#*-(*+!

54&!;(',4#*-!,3&;'!3*;!'37%'D!63723&-!23(*-3(*'!3!$&(,%!3;F3*-3+%!45!Y8KOb!4*!F3&(4#'!544;!

(-%2'J!!:3'\%&!3*;!G4%7!^KQQO_!%'-(23-%!-03-!+&4,%&<!'-4&%'!&%;#,%!-0%(&!$&(,%'!?<!M8MJKb!35-%&!

-0%!%*-&<!45!3!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&!?#-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!'-(77!047;!3!$&(,%!3;F3*-3+%!45!MQbJ!!>-0%&!

&%'%3&,0!03'!'-#;(%;!-0%!73?4&!23&\%-!,4*'%`#%*,%'!45!63723&-!%*-&<D!](-0!:3'\%&!^KQQN3_!3*;!

f(,\'!^KQQO_!5(*;(*+!$4'(-(F%!%55%,-'!4*!%2$74<2%*-!3*;m4&!]3+%'!?#-!G%#23&\!%-!37!^KQQY_!3*;!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!U!/0%!;3-%'!3*;!74,3-(4*'!(*!-0%!$&%,%;(*+!'%*-%*,%'!]%&%!4?-3(*%;!5&42!0--$Tmm]3723&-'-4&%'J,42mZ?4#-E'mOLQUJ3'$=J!P!/0('!(*54&23-(4*!]3'!4?-3(*%;!5&42!0--$Tmm]3723&-'-4&%'J,42mZ?4#-E'mOLQLJ3'$=D!0--$Tmm]3723&-'-4&%'J,42mZ?4#-E'mOLQNJ3'$=D!3*;!0--$Tmm]3723&-'-4&%'J,42m'(-%'mZ**#37[%$4&-mKQQVm5(*3*,(37n0(+07(+0-'J0-27J!N!94&%!%=-%*'(F%!&%F(%]'!45!-0%!7(-%&3-#&%!4*!63723&-!,3*!?%!54#*;!(*!:3'\%&!^KQQL?_D!f(,\'!^KQQO_D!3*;!@3&;%*!%-!37J!^KQQV3_J!

Page 5: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

P!!

B#?%!%7!3-!^KQQO_!5(*;(*+!*%+3-(F%!%55%,-'JL!![%,%*-!]4&\!03'!37'4!%=32(*%;!63723&-a'!(2$3,-'!

4*!3!;(F%&'%!'%-!45!4-0%&!4#-,42%'D!&3*+(*+!5&42!%,4*42(,!(*;(,3-4&'!'#,0!3'!-0%!$4F%&-<!&3-%!

^H4%-)!3*;!"]32(*3-03*D!KQQL_!3*;!'2377!?#'(*%''!3,-(F(-<!^"4?%7!3*;!B%3*D!KQQY_!-4!,#7-#&37!

(*;(,3-4&'!'#,0!3'!'4,(37!,3$(-37!^H4%-)!3*;![#$3'(*+03D!KQQLW!@3&;%*!%-!37D!KQQV3_D!7%('#&%!

3,-(F(-(%'!^@3&;%*!3*;!@4#&-%23*,0%D!KQQV_D!3*;!-&3;(-(4*37!F37#%'!^@3&;%*!%-!37D!KQQV?_J!!!

/0('!$3$%&!,4*-&(?#-%'!-4!-0%!63723&-!7(-%&3-#&%!?<!(*-&4;#,(*+!3*4-0%&!$4''(?7%!

,4*'%`#%*,%!45!63723&-!%*-&<T!"#$%&,%*-%&'a!74]!544;!$&(,%'!23<!03F%!(*,&%3'%;!-0%!(*,(;%*,%!

45!4?%'(-<J!!6%!%=32(*%!-0%!(2$3,-'!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!?4;<!23''!(*;%=!^:91_!3*;!4?%'(-<!

#'(*+!;3-3!4*!-0%!,4#*-<87%F%7!$&%F37%*,%!45!-0%'%!'-4&%'!23-,0%;!](-0!(*;(F(;#37!'#&F%<!

&%'$4*'%'!5&42!-0%!:%03F(4&37![('\!X3,-4&!"#&F%(773*,%!"<'-%2!^:[X""_J!!6%!3;;&%''!-0%!

%*;4+%*%(-<!45!"#$%&,%*-%&!%*-&<!](-0!3*!(*'-&#2%*-37!F3&(3?7%'!3$$&43,0!-03-!%=$74(-'!-0%!

+%4+&3$0(,!$3--%&*!45!"#$%&,%*-%&!%=$3*'(4*!3&4#*;!63723&-a'!0%3;`#3&-%&'!(*!:%*-4*F(77%D!

Z&\3*'3'!(*!-0%!MVVQ'!3*;!KQQQ'J!!6%!37'4!$%&54&2!3!*#2?%&!45!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'!-03-!3,,4#*-!

54&!$4-%*-(37!,4*54#*;%&'!'#,0!3'!"32a'!@7#?'D!63723&-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'D!3*;!;(55%&%*-(37!-&%*;'!

(*!]%(+0-!4*!-0%!?3'('!45!$4$#73-(4*D!%,4*42(,!;%F%74$2%*-D!3*;!+%4+&3$0(,!74,3-(4*J!!!

/0%!%F(;%*,%!'#++%'-'!-03-!-0%!%*-&<!45!3*!3;;(-(4*37!"#$%&,%*-%&!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!

(*,&%3'%'!3F%&3+%!:91!?<!QJKN!#*(-'!3*;!(*;(F(;#37'a!$&4?3?(7(-<!45!?%(*+!4?%'%!?<!KJP!

$%&,%*-3+%!$4(*-'J!!/0%!%55%,-'!3&%!'-&4*+%'-!54&!]42%*D!74]8(*,42%!23&&(%;!(*;(F(;#37'D!3*;!

-04'%!7(F(*+!(*!-0%!7%3'-!$4$#73-%;!,4#*-(%'J!!/0%'%!%'-(23-%'!(2$7<!-03-!-0%!$&47(5%&3-(4*!45!

63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!%=$73(*'!MMb!45!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<!'(*,%!-0%!73-%!MVYQ'J!!12$4&-3*-7<D!

-04#+0D!-0%!&%'#7-(*+!(*,&%3'%!(*!2%;(,37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!455'%-'!4*7<!Lb!45!,4*'#2%&'a!'3F(*+'!

5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!63723&-J!!/0%!4?%'(-<!%55%,-!374*%!('!-0%&%54&%!*4-!'#55(,(%*-!-4!,4*,7#;%!-03-!

63723&-!%*-&<!('!?3;!54&!,422#*(-(%'J!!1*'-%3;D!4#&!&%'#7-'!'(2$7<!$&4F(;%!(*54&23-(4*!3?4#-!4*%!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!L!/0%'%!;(55%&%*-!,4*,7#'(4*'!0(*+%!4*!3!2%-04;474+(,37!;%?3-%!-03-!]%!;%-3(7!(*!"%,-(4*!PJ!

Page 6: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

N!!

45!23*<!53,-4&'!,422#*(-<!$73**%&'!3*;!$47(,<23\%&'!'04#7;!,4*'(;%&!]0%*!%F37#3-(*+!,4'-'!

3*;!?%*%5(-'!45!$&4$4'%;!63723&-!'-4&%'J!

2. Theory

/0%!(*(-(37!&%3'4*(*+!54&!'#'$%,-(*+!3!,3#'37!&%73-(4*'0($!?%-]%%*!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!

3*;!4?%'(-<!('!'(2$7%T!"#$%&,%*-%&'!7%3;!-4!,0%3$!544;!^f3#'23*!3*;!e(%?-3+D!KQQPW!:3'\%&!3*;!

G4%7D!KQQO_!3*;!,0%3$!544;!7%3;'!-4!]%(+0-!+3(*!^I0(7($'4*!3*;!I4'*%&D!KQQUW!e3\;3]3773!3*;!

I0(7($'4*D!KQQKW!@04#!%-!37JD!KQQP_J!!f4]%F%&D!3!24&%!-04&4#+0!3*37<'('!&%F%37'!-03-!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!,4#7;!355%,-!]%(+0-!-0&4#+0!3!,42$7%=!,42?(*3-(4*!45!'#?'-(-#-(4*!3*;!(*,42%!

%55%,-'D!3*;!-03-!-0%!-0%4&%-(,37!%55%,-!('!32?(+#4#'J!!/0%!-0%4&%-(,37!32?(+#(-<!24-(F3-%'!-0%!

*%%;!54&!%2$(&(,37!3*37<'('J!

@4*'(;%&!3!&%$&%'%*-3-(F%!3+%*-!]04!;(F(;%'!0%&!544;!?#;+%-!?%-]%%*!0%37-0<!+&4,%&<!

544;!'#,0!3'!5&%'0!5&#(-'!3*;!F%+%-3?7%'!^H_D!#*0%37-0<!+&4,%&<!544;!'#,0!3'!$&4,%''%;!'*3,\'!

^U_D!3*;!&%'-3#&3*-!544;!^R_J!!/0%!$&(,%'!45!-0%!-0&%%!544;!-<$%'!3&%!PHD!PUD!3*;!PRJ!!:4;<!23''!

(*;%=!^B_!('!(*,&%3'(*+!(*!,4*'#2$-(4*!45!%3,0!45!-0%!-0&%%!544;!-<$%'D!?#-!3''#2%!-03-!#*0%37-0<!

544;!3*;!&%'-3#&3*-!544;!(*,&%3'%!:91!24&%!'-&4*+7<!-03*!0%37-0<!544;!?%,3#'%!45!-0%(&!+&%3-%&!

,374&(,!;%*'(-<JO!!Z7'4D!:91!('!;%,&%3'(*+!(*!,374&(%'!%=$%*;%;!^E_D!]0(,0!]%!-&%3-!3'!%=4+%*4#'!

54&!'(2$7(,(-<J!!X4&2377<D!

! " !#$% &% '% ()****************************************************************#+) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!$ " $#,-% ,.% ,/)****************************************************************#0) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!& " &#,-% ,.% ,/)****************************************************************#1) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!' " '#,-% ,.% ,/)****************************************************************#2) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

! ! !]0%&%!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!O!60%-0%&!%3-(*+!3-!&%'-3#&3*-'!7%3;'!-4!4?%'(-<!('!-0%!'#?R%,-!45!;%?3-%J!!"-#;(%'!'04]!-03-!3!0(+0%&!5&%`#%*,<!45!%3-(*+!53'-!544;!('!3''4,(3-%;!](-0!(*,&%3'%;!(*-3\%!45!,374&(%'D!53-D!3*;!'3-#&3-%;!53-!,4*'#2%;!^(J%J!"3-(3!%-!37D!KQQP_J!!Z,,4&;(*+7<D!@04#!%-!37!^KQQP_!3*;![3'03;!^KQQL_!5(*;!%F(;%*,%!-03-!3!;&4$!(*!$&(,%'!3-!%(-0%&!53'-8544;!4&!5#778'%&F(,%!&%'-3#&3*-'!(*,&%3'%'!4?%'(-<J!!@04#!%-!37!^KQQP_!3*;!B#**!^KQQY_!%'-(23-%!3!$4'(-(F%!3''4,(3-(4*!?%-]%%*!&%'-3#&3*-!$&%F37%*,%!3*;!4?%'(-<D!?#-!Z*;%&'4*!3*;!93-'3!^KQQO_!5(*;!*4!%F(;%*,%!45!3!,3#'37!%55%,-J!

Page 7: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

L!!

3!3$ 4 56*3!3& 4 56*3!3' 4 56*3!3$ 7 3!

3& 6*3!3$ 7 3!

3' 6*3!3( 7 58**********************#9)!

Z''#2%!-0%!-0&%%!-<$%'!45!544;'!3&%!'#?'-(-#-%'D!H!3*;!R!3&%!*4&237!+44;'D!3*;!U!,4#7;!?%!%(-0%&!

*4&237!4&!(*5%&(4&J!!6%!3774]!54&!-0%!$4''(?(7(-<!-03-!R#*\!544;!('!3*!(*5%&(4&!+44;!?%,3#'%!

&%'%3&,0!;4,#2%*-'!3!*%+3-(F%!&%73-(4*'0($!?%-]%%*!(*,42%!3*;!]%(+0-!-0&4#+04#-!24'-!45!-0%!

EJ"J!(*,42%!;('-&(?#-(4*!^(J%J!e3\;3]3773!3*;!I0(7($'4*D!KQQKW!@04#!%-!37JD!KQQP_D!](-0!4*%!

%=$73*3-(4*!?%(*+!-03-!3;;(-(4*37!(*,42%!3774]'!(*;(F(;#37'!-4!'](-,0!5&42!,0%3$!$&4,%''%;!544;!

-4!24&%!%=$%*'(F%!?#-!0%37-0(%&!5&%'0!544;!^:3'(4-('!3*;!e(*4D!KQQKW![3**%<!3*;!9,G323&3D!

KQQKW!B&%]*4]'\(!3*;!"$%,-%&D!KQQP_J!!Z'!'04]*!(*!/3?7%!MD!-0%!4F%&377!%55%,-'!45!PHD!PUD!3*;!

PR!4*!HD!UD!3*;!R!3&%!

3$3,-

7 56* 3&3,-: 56* 3'3,-

: 56* 3$3,.: 56* 3&3,.

: 56* 3'3,.: 56* 3$3,/

: 56* 3&3,/: 56* 3'3,/

7 58****#;)!

o1G"C[/!/Z:eC!M!fC[CJp!

63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!^S_!'%77!0%37-0<!544;!3*;!#*0%37-0<!544;D!?#-!-0%<!;4!*4-!'%77!&%'-3#&3*-!

544;JY!!/0%!%55%,-'!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!$&(,%'!3&%!

3,-3< 7 56*3,.3< 7 56*3,/< " 58*****************************************************#=)!

:91!,3*!-0%&%54&%!?%!%=$&%''%;!3'!

! " !#$#,-#<)% ,.#<)% ,/)% &#,-#<)% ,.#<)% ,/)% '#,-#<)% ,.#<)% ,/)% ()**********#>)!

3*;!-0%!4F%&377!%55%,-!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!:91!('!

3!3< "

?!?$ @

?$?,-

?,-?< A ?$

?,.?,.?< B A

?!?& @

?&?,-

?,-?< A ?&

?,.?,.?< B A

?!?' @

?'?,-

?,-?< A ?'

?,.?,.?< B 8 #C)!

"(*,%!-0%!23+*(-#;%'!45!-0%!$3&-(37!%55%,-'!3&%!32?(+#4#'D!-0%!4F%&377!%55%,-!('!

32?(+#4#'J!!Z!,7%3&!-0%4&%-(,37!$&%;(,-(4*!]4#7;!%2%&+%!(5!]%!3''#2%;!-03-!#*0%37-0<!544;!('!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Y!"42%!"#$%&,%*-%&'!;4!,4*-3(*!53'-!544;!&%'-3#&3*-'D!?#-!-0%&%!('!7(--7%!&%3'4*!-4!'#'$%,-!-03-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!&%;#,%!-0%!4F%&377!23&\%-!$&(,%!45!&%'-3#&3*-!544;J!

Page 8: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

O!!

*4&237!3*;!-03-!-0%!,&4''8$&(,%!%73'-(,(-(%'!45!;%23*;!3&%!)%&4q-0%!5(&'-!-]4!-%&2'!]4#7;!?%!

$4'(-(F%!3*;!-0%!-0(&;!-%&2!]4#7;!?%!)%&4D!23\(*+!-0%!4F%&377!%55%,-!$4'(-(F%q04]%F%&D!-0%'%!

3''#2$-(4*'!3&%!(2$73#'(?7<!'-&4*+J!![%73=(*+!-0%2!7%3;'!-4!'%F%&37!$4''(?7%!',%*3&(4'!(*!]0(,0!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!]4#7;!&%;#,%!BMIJ!!X4&!(*'-3*,%D!(5!(*,42%!%55%,-'!;42(*3-%!'#?'-(-#-(4*!%55%,-'!

3*;!#*0%37-0<!544;!('!(*5%&(4&D!63723&-!'04$$%&'!,4#7;!%3-!7%''!R#*\!544;!3*;!74'%!]%(+0-J!!

Z;;(-(4*377<D!(5!-0%!23+*(-#;%!45!D/DEF

DEFDG !('!73&+%D!(*;(F(;#37'!,4#7;!74'%!]%(+0-!?<!'#?'-(-#-(*+!

3]3<!5&42!&%'-3#&3*-!544;!3*;!-4]3&;!0%37-0<!042%8,44\%;!2%37'J!!>5!$3&-(,#73&!(*-%&%'-!('!-0%!

$4''(?(7(-<!-03-D!(5!63723&-!7%3;'!-4!24&%!'#?'-3*-(37!$&(,%!&%;#,-(4*'!54&!0%37-0<!544;!-03*!

#*0%37-0<!544;!3*;!D.DEF!('!73&+%D!]%(+0-!,4#7;!5377!3'!,4*'#2%&'!'#?'-(-#-%!-4]3&;!-0%!54&2%&!

5&42!-0%!73--%&!l!3*!%55%,-!-03-!('!$73#'(?7%!+(F%*!H%7?3,0!%-!37Ja'!^KQQO_!5(*;(*+!-03-!-0%!&%73-(F%!

544;!$&(,%'!(2$3,-!4?%'(-<J!!"#$%&,%*-%&'a!%55%,-!4*!-0%!&%73-(F%!$&(,%!45!0%37-0<!F%&'#'!#*0%37-0<!

544;!('!#*,7%3&J!!>*!4*%!03*;D!63723&-a'!%55(,(%*,<!374*+!-0%!'#$$7<!,03(*!('!%'$%,(377<!

(2$4&-3*-!54&!&3$(;7<8;%$&%,(3-(*+!$%&('03?7%!(-%2'!7(\%!5&%'0!5&#(-'!3*;!F%+%-3?7%'J!!Z7'4D!

63723&-a'!3;F3*,%'!(*!-&3*'$4&-3-(4*!74+('-(,'!3*;!54&%,3'-(*+!23<!03F%!23;%!(-!$&45(-3?7%!54&!

&%-3(7%&'!-4!'-4,\!3!](;%&!&3*+%!45!5&%'0!5&#(-'!3*;!F%+%-3?7%'!-03*!]3'!$&%F(4#'7<!3F3(73?7%!

74,377<D!3*;!-0%!&%73-(F%!$&(,%'!45!+44;'!-03-!]%&%!$&%F(4#'7<!#*3F3(73?7%!*%,%''3&(7<!5377J!!>*!-0%!

4-0%&!03*;D!3!?#'(*%''!24;%7!?#(7-!3&4#*;!3!+74?37!;('-&(?#-(4*!*%-]4&\!3*;!%=-%*;%;!]3&%04#'%!

'-4&3+%!23<!?%!24&%!32%*3?7%!-4!$&4,%''%;!544;'!-03*!5&%'0!$&4;#,%JV!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!V!/0%!%2$(&(,37!7(-%&3-#&%!;4%'!*4-!&%F%37!3!,7%3&!&%73-(4*'0($!?%-]%%*!-0%!0%37-0!`#37(-<!45!544;'!3*;!-0%!%=-%*-!-4!]0(,0!63723&-'!355%,-!-0%(&!$&(,%'J!!f3#'23*!3*;!e%(?-3+!^KQQP_!5(*;!-03-!-0%!%55%,-'!45!h"9@'i!^'#$%&,%*-%&'D!23''!2%&,03*;('%&'D!3*;!,7#?!'-4&%'_!4*!-0%!$&(,%'!45!3$$7%'D!3$$7%!R#(,%D!3*;!?3*3*3'!3&%!'2377%&!-03*!-0%!%55%,-'!4*!,44\(%'D!%++'D!032D!3*;!(,%!,&%32D!?#-!'42%!45!-0%!73&+%'-!%55%,-'!-0%<!%'-(23-%!3&%!4*!-0%!$&(,%'!45!7%--#,%!3*;!-423-4%'J!!:3'\%&!3*;!G4%7!^KQQO_!%'-(23-%!63723&-a'!%55%,-!4*!3!*#2?%&!45!544;!$&(,%'J!!/0%!73&+%'-!$&(,%!%55%,-!('!54&!23&+3&(*%D!?#-!-0%!'%,4*;873&+%'-!('!54&!7%--#,%!3*;!-0%!'2377%'-!$&(,%!;%,&%3'%'!3&%!54&!'4;3D!'04&-%*(*+D!+&4#*;!?%%5D!'#+3&D!3*;!%++'J!!/0%!%55%,-'!4*!-0%!$&(,%'!45!2(7\!3*;!$3&2%'3*!,0%%'%!3&%!3,-#377<!$4'(-(F%J!

Page 9: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

Y!!

! X44;!$&(,%'!3&%!-0%!24'-!4?F(4#'!2%,03*('2!-0&4#+0!]0(,0!"#$%&,%*-%&'!,4#7;!355%,-!

]%(+0-D!?#-!-0%&%!3&%!'%F%&37!4-0%&!7%''!4?F(4#'!$4''(?(7(-(%'!-03-!&%(*54&,%!-0%!-0%4&%-(,37!

32?(+#(-<J!!@0%3$!,(+3&%--%'!3*;!37,4047!5&42!63723&-!,4#7;!-0%4&%-(,377<!355%,-!]%(+0-D!3'!

*(,4-(*%!'-(2#73-%'!-0%!2%-3?47('2!3*;!,#&?'!3$$%-(-%!]0(7%!37,4047!,4*-3(*'!%2$-<!,374&(%'JMQ!!

63723&-a'!74]!$&(,%'!54&!*4*8544;!(-%2'!,4#7;!(2$3,-!%3-(*+!03?(-'!-4!-0%!%=-%*-!-03-!-0%'%!(-%2'!

3*;!544;!3&%!'#?'-(-#-%'!4&!,42$7%2%*-'J!!h"$&3]7893&-i!23<!&%;#,%!,374&(%!%=$%*;(-#&%!?<!

,03*+(*+!-0%!*3-#&%!45!'04$$(*+!5&42!3!]37\!?%-]%%*!'%F%&37!;4]*-4]*!&%-3(7%&'!-4!3!4*%8'-4$!

;&(F%!-4!-0%!'#?#&?'JMM!!Z7-%&*3-(F%7<D!63723&-a'!,0%3$!'$4&-(*+!+44;'!,4#7;!%*,4#&3+%!$0<'(,37!

3,-(F(-<J!!H(F%*!-0%!-0%4&%-(,37!,42$7%=(-(%'!(*F47F%;!](-0!3*37<)(*+!63723&-a'!%55%,-'!4*!?4;<!

]%(+0-D!]%!*%=-!-#&*!-4!%2$(&(,37!3*37<'('J!!!

3. Data

6%!54,#'!4*!-0%!%55%,-!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!4?%'(-<D!?#-!]%!37'4!#-(7()%!;3-3!4*!

63723&-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!3*;!"32a'!@7#?'!(*!'42%!&%+&%''(4*'J!!6%!#'%!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&!

3*;!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!;3-%'!3*;!74,3-(4*'!+%*%&4#'7<!23;%!3F3(73?7%!4*7(*%!?<!/0423'!dJ!

f472%'JMK!!"32a'!@7#?!74,3-(4*'!-0&4#+0!93<!45!KQQU!]%&%!,477%,-%;!?<!Z#'-3*!H447'?%%!3*;!

@03;!"<F%&'4*!3*;!]%&%!+%*%&4#'7<!$&4F(;%;!?<!@03;!"<F%&'4*!F(3!%23(7J!!6%!#$;3-%;!-0%!

"32a'!@7#?!;3-3!#'(*+!(*54&23-(4*!4*!'-4&%!4$%*(*+!;3-%'!'(*,%!KQQU!$&4F(;%;!?<!63723&-!

"-4&%'D!1*,J!!1*!4#&!23(*!&%+&%''(4*'!]%!3;R#'-!54&!23&\%-!'()%!?<!,37,#73-(*+!-0%!*#2?%&!45!

'-4&%'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!(*!-0%!,4#*-<D!#'(*+!$4$#73-(4*!;3-3!5&42!-0%!EJ"J!@%*'#'!:#&%3#J!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!MQ!/0%!,3#'37!%55%,-!45!,(+3&%--%!$&(,%'!4*!?4;<!]%(+0-!('!-0%!'#?R%,-!45!;%?3-%!(*!-0%!7(-%&3-#&%W!'%%!@04#!%-!37!^KQQP_D!H&#?%&!3*;!X&3\%'!^KQQL_D!:3#2!^KQQY_D!X(*\%7'-%(*!%-!37!^KQQY_D!3*;!@4#&-%23*,0%!^KQQV_J!MM![%,%*-!'-#;(%'!03F%!3--%2$-%;!-4!7(*\!4?%'(-<!-4!'$&3]7D!3'!-0%!'$&%3;(*+!4#-!45!3!,(-<!-4!'#?#&?3*!3&%3'!&%;#,%'!-0%!F(3?(7(-<!45!]37\(*+D!?(,<,7(*+D!3*;!23''!-&3*'(-!3'!-&3*'$4&-3-(4*!4$-(4*'J!!C](*+!%-!37J!^KQQU_D!H(7%'8@4&-(!%-!37J!^KQQU_D!3*;!X&3*\!%-!37J!^KQQP_!'04]!-03-!(*,&%3'%'!(*!3#-424?(7%84&(%*-%;!(*5&3'-&#,-#&%!3&%!3''4,(3-%;!](-0!0(+0%&!4?%'(-<D!]0(7%!C(;!%-!37!^KQQY_!3*;!I73*-(*+3!3*;!:%&*%77!^KQQO_!5(*;!-03-!3-!7%3'-!'42%!45!-0('!3''4,(3-(4*!,3*!?%!3--&(?#-%;!-4!&%F%&'%!,3#'37(-<J!MK!0--$Tmm]]]J%,4*J#2*J%;#mr0472%'m;3-3m63793&-m(*;%=J0-27J!!!/0%!;3-3!]%&%!#'%;!(*!f472%'!^KQQY_J!

Page 10: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

V!!

",37(*+!?<!$4$#73-(4*!('!,4224*!(*!-0%!63723&-!7(-%&3-#&%!'(*,%!$&%'#23?7<!-0%!%55%,-!45!3*!

3;;(-(4*37!63723&-!'-4&%!'04#7;!?%!'-&4*+%&!(*!'2377%&!,4#*-(%'!](-0!5%]%&!'04$$(*+!37-%&*3-(F%'!

-03*!73&+%&!,4#*-(%'JMU!

/4!,4*'-&#,-!-0%!'%-!45!(*'-&#2%*-'!;(',#''%;!(*!"%,-(4*!UJMD!]%!#-(7()%!;('-3*,%!5&42!-0%!

,%*-%&!45!%3,0!,4#*-<!-4!-0%!74,3-(4*!45!63723&-a'!0%3;`#3&-%&'!(*!:%*-4*F(77%D!Z&\3*'3'D!

,42$#-%;!#'(*+!-0%!+&%3-!,(&,7%!;('-3*,%!54&2#73J!!Z'!3!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\D!]%!37'4!#'%!;('-3*,%!

5&42!63723&-a'!*%3&%'-!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&J!!X44;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&!74,3-(4*'!3*;!%*-&<!

;3-%'!]%&%!4?-3(*%;!5&42!f472%'a!]%?'(-%J!!!!

>#&!(*;(F(;#3787%F%7!;3-3!,42%!5&42!-0%!MVVL8KQQN!]3F%'!45!-0%!&%'-&(,-%;!F%&'(4*!45!-0%!

:%03F(4&37![('\!X3,-4&!"#&F%(773*,%!"<'-%2!^:[X""_D!3!-%7%$04*%!'#&F%<!45!0%37-0!,4*;(-(4*'!

3*;!&('\<!0%37-0!?%03F(4&'!,4*;#,-%;!?<!'-3-%!0%37-0!;%$3&-2%*-'!3*;!-0%!@%*-%&!54&!B('%3'%!

@4*-&47J!!/0%!:[X""!,4*'('-'!45!&%$%3-%;!3**#37!,&4''!'%,-(4*'!45!&3*;427<8'%7%,-%;!(*;(F(;#37'!

'-3&-(*+!(*!MVYPJ!!1*!MVYPD!4*7<!MN!'-3-%'!$3&-(,($3-%;D!?#-!-0('!*#2?%&!+&%]!&3$(;7<!3*;!377!'-3-%'!

]%&%!$3&-(,($3-(*+!?<!MVVLJ!!/0%!*#2?%&!45!&%'$4*;%*-'!37'4!+&%]!&3$(;7<D!5&42!MKDKNY!(*!MVYP!

-4!UNNDOMQ!(*!KQQLJ!!6%!#-(7()%!-0%!&%'-&(,-%;!F%&'(4*!45!-0%!:[X""D!]0(,0!3-!-0%!-(2%!45!-0('!

$3$%&!(*,7#;%;!4*7<!-0%!<%3&'!MVVP!-4!KQQND!?%,3#'%!-0('!F%&'(4*!(*,7#;%'!-0%!,4#*-<!(;%*-(5(%&'!

54&!377!(*;(F(;#37'JMP!!6%!#'%!4*7<!-0%!<%3&'!'-3&-(*+!(*!MVVL!?%,3#'%D!3'!*4-%;!?<!G%#23&\!%-!37J!

^KQQY_D!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!$&%;(,-%;!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!#*-(7!MVVND!35-%&!]0(,0!$4(*-!

63723&-!'$3**%;!-0%!%*-(&%!,4#*-&<!3*;!h-0%&%!]3'!4*7<!5(77(*+!(*!45!'-4&%'!(*!3&%3'!-03-!37&%3;<!

03;!-0%2i!^$J!PMK_J!!:<!54,#'(*+!4*7<!4*!<%3&'!35-%&!MVVND!]%!0%7$!-4!%*'#&%!-03-!4#&!;('-3*,%8

?3'%;!(*'-&#2%*-'!$&%;(,-!4*7<!"#$%&,%*-%&!%*-&<!3*;!*4-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!3'!]%77J!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!MU!X4&!%=32$7%'D!'%%!:3'\%&!^KQQN3_D!H4%-)!3*;![#$3'(*+03!^KQQL_D!H4%-)!3*;!"]3*(*3-03*!^KQQL_D!"4?%7!3*;!B%3*!^KQQY_D!3*;!@3&;%*!%-!37J!^KQQV3J!KQQV?_J!!!MP!6%!-03*\!-0%!@%*-%&!54&!B('%3'%!@4*-&47!54&!+&3,(4#'7<!23\(*+!-0%!&%'-&(,-%;!;3-3!3F3(73?7%J!!/0%!$#?7(,377<!3F3(73?7%!;3-3!,4*-3(*'!'42%!,4#*-<!(;%*-(5(%&'!(*!377!<%3&'!35-%&!MVYYD!?#-!-0%<!3&%!0(;;%*!54&!23*<!'-3-%'J!!!

Page 11: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MQ!!

6%!#-(7()%!-0%!54774](*+!:[X""!F3&(3?7%'J!!/0%!:[X""!(*,7#;%'!'%758&%$4&-%;!0%(+0-!3*;!

]%(+0-D!]0(,0!3774]'!#'!-4!,4*'-&#,-!4#&!;%$%*;%*-!F3&(3?7%'T!:91!3*;!3*!(*;(,3-4&!F3&(3?7%!54&!

]0%-0%&!4&!*4-!-0%!&%'$4*;%*-!('!4?%'%!^:91!UQ_JMN!!6%!37'4!,4*'-&#,-!3!'%-!45!(*;(F(;#3787%F%7!

,4*-&47'!,4*-3(*(*+!-0%!54774](*+!F3&(3?7%'J!!/0%!;3-3!(*,7#;%!04#'%047;!(*,42%!,3-%+4&(%'W!]%!

,37,#73-%!,4*-(*#4#'!2%3'#&%'!45!&%37!(*,42%'!^(*!KQQN!;4773&'_!?<!3''(+*(*+!(*;(F(;#37'!

(*,42%'!%`#37!-4!-0%!2(;$4(*-!45!-0%(&!,3-%+4&<!3*;!-0%*!3;R#'-(*+!54&!(*573-(4*!#'(*+!-0%!

,4*'#2%&!$&(,%!(*;%=!54&!377!#&?3*!,4*'#2%&'!5&42!-0%!:#&%3#!45!e3?4&!"-3-('-(,'J!!6%!,4*F%&-!

(*54&23-(4*!4*!%;#,3-(4*37!3--3(*2%*-!-4!3!'%-!45!;#22<!F3&(3?7%'!54&!'42%!0(+0!',0447D!0(+0!

',0447!+&3;#3-%D!'42%!,477%+%D!3*;!,477%+%!+&3;#3-%J!!6%!37'4!(*,7#;%!3+%!3*;!?(*3&<!F3&(3?7%'!

54&!]0%-0%&!4&!*4-!-0%!(*;(F(;#37!('!23&&(%;D!5%237%D!?73,\D!3*;!3!&3,%!4-0%&!-03*!?73,\!4&!]0(-%J!!

6%!23-,0!-0%'%!(*;(F(;#3787%F%7!;3-3!-4!-0%!*#2?%&!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'D!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'D!3*;!

"32a'!@7#?'!(*!-0%!,4#*-<!3-!-0%!%*;!45!-0%!<%3&!$&%,%;(*+!-0%!&%'$4*;%*-a'!(*-%&F(%]JML!!/0('!

3774]'!'42%!-(2%!54&!,03*+%'!(*!'-4&%!$&%'%*,%!-4!355%,-!%3-(*+!03?(-'D!3*;!54&!,03*+%'!(*!%3-(*+!

03?(-'!-4!355%,-!]%(+0-J!!1*!#*&%$4&-%;!&%+&%''(4*'D!]%!37'4!%'-(23-%;!24;%7'!#'(*+!3F%&3+%!'-4&%!

$&%'%*,%!4F%&!-0%!-]%7F%!24*-0'!$&%,%;(*+!-0%!&%'$4*;%*-a'!(*-%&F(%]D!3*;!-0%!&%'#7-'!]%&%!

'(2(73&J!!!!

6%!37'4!3;;!,4#*-<87%F%7!,03&3,-%&('-(,'!3'!,4*-&47'!(*!'42%!45!-0%!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'J!!

X(&'-D!]%!(*,7#;%!,4#*-<!#*%2$74<2%*-!&3-%'!5&42!-0%!:#&%3#!45!e3?4&!"-3-('-(,'!^:e"_J!!

Z;;(-(4*377<D!]%!#'%!*#2?%&!45!+%*%&37!2%&,03*;('%!'-4&%'!3*;!+&4,%&<!'-4&%'!5&42!-0%!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!MN!"%758&%$4&-%;!]%(+0-!3*;!0%(+0-!23<!?%!$&4?7%23-(,!'(*,%!$%4$7%!-%*;!-4!#*;%&&%$4&-!-0%(&!]%(+0-!3*;D!-4!3!7%''%&!%=-%*-D!%=3++%&3-%!-0%(&!0%(+0-J!"42%!%,4*42('-'!03F%!%2$74<%;!3!,4&&%,-(4*!54&!'%758&%$4&-%;!:91!;%F%74$%;!?<!@3]7%<!^MVVV_J!!/0('!,4&&%,-(4*!-0%!G3-(4*37!f%37-0!3*;!G#-&(-(4*!C=32(*3-(4*!"#&F%<D!]0(,0!(*,7#;%'!?4-0!3,-#37!3*;!'%758&%$4&-%;!]%(+0-!3*;!0%(+0-D!-4!%'-(23-%!3,-#37!:91!3'!3!5#*,-(4*!45!'%758&%$4&-%;!:91!3*;!3!F3&(%-<!45!;%24+&3$0(,!,03&3,-%&('-(,'J!![%'%3&,0%&'!03F%!+%*%&377<!54#*;!-03-!-0%!,4&&%73-(4*!?%-]%%*!3,-#37!3*;!'%758&%$4&-%;!:91!('!F%&<!0(+0D!3*;!-03-!,4&&%,-(*+!54&!2%3'#&%2%*-!%&&4&!;4%'!*4-!'#?'-3*-(377<!37-%&!-0%!,4%55(,(%*-!%'-(23-%'!(*!&%+&%''(4*'!^@3]7%<D!MVVV!3*;!e3\;3]3773!3*;!I0(7($'4*D!KQQK_J!!6%!-0%&%54&%!%7%,-!*4-!-4!%2$74<!-0%!,4&&%,-(4*!(*!-0('!$3$%&J!ML!X4&!(*'-3*,%D!(5!3!&%'$4*;%*-!('!(*-%&F(%]%;!(*!KQQQD!]%!23-,0!0%&!(*;(F(;#37!(*54&23-(4*!-4!-0%!*#2?%&!45!'-4&%'!(*!0%&!,4#*-<!3-!-0%!%*;!45!B%,%2?%&D!MVVVJ!

Page 12: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MM!!

C,4*42(,!@%*'#'J!!/0%'%!F3&(3?7%'!3&%!4*7<!3F3(73?7%!%F%&<!5(F%!<%3&'W!]%!#'%!-0%!MVVKD!MVVOD!

3*;!KQQK!,%*'#'%'!3*;!(2$#-%!-0%!4-0%&!<%3&'!#'(*+!7(*%3&!(*-%&$473-(4*'!3*;!%=-&3$473-(4*'JMO!!

"(*,%!+%*%&37!2%&,03*;('%!'-4&%'!(*,7#;%!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'D!]%!'#?-&3,-!-0%2!4#-!-4!4?-3(*!

-0%!*#2?%&!45!4-0%&!+%*%&37!2%&,03*;('%!'-4&%'!(*!-0%!,4#*-<J!!6%!3+3(*!,37,#73-%!-0%!*#2?%&!45!

'-4&%'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'J!!!

>#&!23-,0%;!'32$7%!,4*'('-'!45!MDLPPDQVP!4?'%&F3-(4*'J!!6%!&%$4&-!F3&(3?7%!*32%'D!

'4#&,%'D!;%',&($-(4*'D!3*;!'#223&<!'-3-('-(,'!(*!/3?7%!KJ!!/0%!'32$7%!4?%'(-<!&3-%!('!KMbJ!!/0%!

3F%&3+%!&%'$4*;%*-!03'!3!:91!45!KLJL!3*;!7(F%'!(*!3!,4#*-<!](-0!QJUU!"#$%&,%*-%&'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!

&%'(;%*-'J!

o1G"C[/!/Z:eC!K!fC[CJp!

4. Identification Strategy

Z!](;%7<!3,\*4]7%;+%;!$&4?7%2!](-0!(;%*-(5<(*+!-0%!,3#'37!%55%,-'!45!63723&-!('!

%*;4+%*%(-<!?(3'!5&42!-0%!*4*8&3*;42!*3-#&%!45!63723&-a'!74,3-(4*'J!!G%#23&\!%-!37J!^KQQY_!

455%&!3!;%-3(7%;!;(',#''(4*!45!63723&-a'!%=$3*'(4*!'-&3-%+<!#'(*+!`#4-%'!5&42!"32a'!637-4*a'!

3#-4?(4+&3$0<!3*;!23$'!45!'-4&%!74,3-(4*'!3*;!4$%*(*+'!4F%&!-(2%J!!/4!'#223&()%D!63723&-!

'74]7<!%=$3*;%;!4#-]3&;!5&42!:%*-4*!@4#*-<D!Z&\3*'3'D!'3-#&3-(*+!3!23&\%-!?%54&%!24F(*+!4*!

-4!3!*%]!23&\%-!5#&-0%&!3]3<J!!/0('!$&4,%''!,4*-(*#%;!5&42!MVLK!-4!MVVND!3-!]0(,0!$4(*-!

63723&-!'-4&%'!03;!&%3,0%;!377!,4&*%&'!45!-0%!EJ"J!!63723&-a'!'-4&%!74,3-(4*!;%,('(4*'!#*-(7!MVVN!

,3*!-0%&%54&%!744'%7<!?%!'#223&()%;!3'!-0%!&%'#7-!45!3!-]48'-%$!$&4,%''J!!X(&'-D!-0%!,42$3*<!

;%,(;%;!4*!-0%!;('-3*,%!&(*+!^(J%J!7%''!-03*!MQQ!2(7%'!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%D!NQQ8LQQ!2(7%'!5&42!

:%*-4*F(77%D!%-,J_!3-!]0(,0!-4!54,#'!(-'!3--%*-(4*!(*!3!+(F%*!<%3&J!!/0%*D!](-0(*!-03-!;('-3*,%!&(*+!(-!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!MO!/0%!KQQO!C,4*42(,!@%*'#'!]3'!*4-!$#?7(,377<!3F3(73?7%!3-!-0%!-(2%!45!-0('!$3$%&D!'4!]%!#'%!4*7<!MVVKD!MVVOD!3*;!KQQKJ!!1*!MVVKD!?4-0!F3&(3?7%'!3&%!3F3(73?7%!(*!-0%!C,4*42(,!@%*'#'a!Census of Retail TradeJ!!1*!MVVO!3*;!KQQKD!-0%<!3&%!(*!Retail TradeJ!

Page 13: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MK!!

,04'%!74,3-(4*'!-03-!23=(2()%;!-0%!%=$%,-%;!'#2!45!5#-#&%!$&45(-'J!!/0('!$&4,%''!,&%3-%'!-0%!

$4-%*-(37!54&!%*;4+%*%(-<!?(3'!(*!'-#;(%'!%=32(*(*+!63723&-a'!%55%,-'J!!1*!$3&-(,#73&D!-0%!3&%3'!

](-0!-0%!0(+0%'-!%=$%,-%;!5#-#&%!$&45(-'!l!$&%'#23?7<!-04'%!]0%&%!%,4*42(,!;%F%74$2%*-!('!

$&4R%,-%;!-4!4,,#&!-0%!53'-%'-D!-04'%!]0(,0!455%&!-0%!24'-!+%*%&4#'!-3=!3;F3*-3+%'D!3*;!-04'%!

]0(,0!3&%!-0%!24'-!&%,%$-(F%!-4!63723&-!%*-&<!l!3&%!7(\%7<!-&%*;(*+!;(55%&%*-7<!-03*!4-0%&!3&%3'!

374*+!*#2%&4#'!#*4?'%&F3?7%!;(2%*'(4*'J!!!

B(55%&%*-!2%-04;'!45!3;;&%''(*+!-0('!%*;4+%*%(-<!,4*,%&*!03F%!?%%*!#'%;!(*!-0%!

7(-%&3-#&%D!?#-!3*!(*,&%3'(*+7<!$4$#73&!3$$&43,0!('!-4!(*'-&#2%*-!54&!63723&-!$&%'%*,%!](-0!

(*-%&3,-(4*'!45!<%3&!5(=%;!%55%,-'!3*;!F3&(3?7%'!&%$&%'%*-(*+!;('-3*,%!5&42!63723&-a'!

0%3;`#3&-%&'!(*!:%*-4*!@4#*-<J!![%,%*-!$3$%&'!?<!-0&%%!;(55%&%*-!+&4#$'!45!3#-04&'!03F%!#-(7()%;!

F3&(3-(4*'!45!-0('!3$$&43,0!-4!(;%*-(5<!63723&-a'!(2$3,-'T!G%#23&\!%-!37J!^KQQY_!54#*;!3!

*%+3-(F%!%55%,-!4*!&%-3(7!%2$74<2%*-D!B#?%!%-!37J!^KQQO_!54#*;!*%+3-(F%!%55%,-'!4*!&%-3(7!%3&*(*+'!

3*;!0%37-0!?%*%5(-'D!3*;!@3&;%*!%-!37J!^KQQV3_!54#*;!*4!%55%,-!4*!'4,(37!,3$(-37J!!1;%*-(5<(*+!

63723&-a'!%55%,-!#'(*+!-0%!(*-%&3,-(4*!45!-(2%!3*;!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*!@4#*-<!('!3$$%37(*+!54&!

'%F%&37!&%3'4*'J!!X(&'-D!(-!('!3!*3-#&37!3$$&43,0!+(F%*!63723&-a'!354&%2%*-(4*%;!%=$3*'(4*!$3-0D!

2%3*(*+!-03-!-0%!(*'-&#2%*-'!3&%!'#55(,(%*-7<!$4]%&5#7!$&%;(,-4&'!45!63723&-!$&%'%*,%J!!"%,4*;D!

;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!('!$73#'(?7<!%=4+%*4#'!'(*,%!(-!]3'!;%-%&2(*%;!74*+!?%54&%!63723&-a'!

54#*;(*+J!!Z;;(-(4*377<D!?<!(;%*-(5<(*+!455!-0%!interaction!45!-(2%!3*;!;('-3*,%!3'!4$$4'%;!-4!

'(2$7<!;('-3*,%D!-0%'%!$3$%&'!&%-3(*!-0%!3?(7(-<!-4!3,,4#*-!54&!-(2%8(*F3&(3*-!,4*54#*;%&'!#'(*+!

5(=%;!%55%,-'!4&!;(55%&%*,%'J!!!

/0('!3$$&43,0D!04]%F%&D!('!*4-!](-04#-!,4*-&4F%&'<J!![%$7<(*+!-4!G%#23&\!%-!37J!^KQQY_D!

:3'\%&!^KQQL_!3&+#%!-03-!-0%!;('-3*,%8<%3&!(*-%&3,-(4*'!3&%!,4&&%73-%;!](-0!#*4?'%&F%;!

;%-%&2(*3*-'!45!%2$74<2%*-D!23\(*+!-0%2!(*F37(;!(*'-&#2%*-'J!!"$%,(5(,377<D!'0%!,73(2'!-03-!

Page 14: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MU!!

73&+%!$4$#73-(4*!,%*-%&'!l!]0(,0!23<!%=$%&(%*,%!;(55%&%*-!73?4&!23&\%-!'04,\'!-03*!4-0%&!3&%3'!l!

3&%!74,3-%;!;('$&4$4&-(4*3-%7<!*%3&!-0%!,43'-'D!23\(*+!-0%2!&%73-(F%7<!53&!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%J!!"0%!

'04]'!-03-!G%#23&\!%-!37Ja'!3$$&43,0!$&%;(,-'!3*!(2$73#'(?7<!73&+%!%55%,-!45!63723&-!%*-&<!4*!

74,37!23*#53,-#&(*+!%2$74<2%*-J!!G%#23&\!%-!37J!,73(2D!-04#+0D!-03-!%F%*!(5!3!;('-3*,%8?3'%;!

(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!'-&3-%+<!('!(*3$$&4$&(3-%!-4!%=32(*%!-0%!(2$3,-'!45!63723&-!4*!%2$74<2%*-!(*!

+%4+&3$0(,377<8,4*,%*-&3-%;!(*;#'-&(%'!'#,0!3'!23*#53,-#&(*+D!-0('!;4%'!*4-!2%3*!(-!('!

(*3$$&4$&(3-%!-4!%=32(*%!(2$3,-'!4*!%2$74<2%*-!(*!7%''!+%4+&3$0(,377<8,4*,%*-&3-%;!(*;#'-&(%'!

'#,0!3'!&%-3(7J!!/0%<!37'4!'04]!-03-!-0%!(2$73#'(?7%!%55%,-!4*!23*#53,-#&(*+!%2$74<2%*-!

;('3$$%3&'!]0%*!7(*%3&!;('-3*,%!&(*+8'$%,(5(,!-&%*;'!3&%!3;;%;!-4!-0%!24;%7J!!/4!'#223&()%D!-0%!

7(-%&3-#&%!'#++%'-'!-03-!(;%*-(5<(*+!63723&-a'!(2$3,-'!#'(*+!-0%!(*-%&3,-(4*'!45!-(2%!3*;!;('-3*,%!

5&42!63723&-a'!0%3;`#3&-%&'!('!3*!(*-#(-(F%7<!3$$%37(*+!'-&3-%+<!-03-!('!7(\%7<!3$$&4$&(3-%!(*!

'42%!,4*-%=-'!?#-!*4-!(*!4-0%&'J!

! >#&!$3$%&!#'%'!3!F3&(3-(4*!45!-0%!;('-3*,%8-(2%!(*-%&3,-(4*'!(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!'-&3-%+<!-4!

%'-(23-%!-0%!%55%,-!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!l!3'!4$$4'%;!-4!63723&-!'-4&%'!(*!+%*%&37!l!4*!?4;<!

]%(+0-J!!>#&!'-&3-%+<!('!?3'%;!4*!-0%!4?'%&F3-(4*!-03-!-0%!$&47(5%&3-(4*!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!?%+(**(*+!

(*!MVYY!54774]'!3!'(2(73&!%=$3*'(4*!$3-0!3'!-0%!354&%2%*-(4*%;!$&47(5%&3-(4*!45!63723&-!

;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!-03-!?%+3*!(*!MVLKJ!!Z'!G%#23&\!%-!37J!^KQQY_!*4-%D!63723&-a'!%=$3*'(4*!4,,#&'!

(*!%''%*-(377<!,4*,%*-&(,!,(&,7%'!3&4#*;!:%*-4*F(77%D!Z&\3*'3'!54&!3!73&+%!$3&-!45!-0%!,42$3*<a'!

0('-4&<J!!X(+#&%'!K8MQ!'04]!-03-!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!54774]!3!'(2(73&!$3--%&*!45!%=$3*'(4*J!

6%!?%+(*!](-0!3!*3sF%!5(=%;!%55%,-'!'$%,(5(,3-(4*T!

HIJKL " MN A MO<KL APMQRSRJKLT

RUOAPVWX'W

Y

WUOAPZ[\X[

G

[UOA ]JKL*********************#+5)!

Page 15: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MP!!

]0%&%!HIJKL!('!3!2%3'#&%!45!]%(+0-!l!%(-0%&!:91!4&!3*!(*;(,3-4&!54&!4?%'(-<!'-3-#'!l!54&!

(*;(F(;#37!i!7(F(*+!(*!,4#*-<!c!(*!<%3&!tJ!!<KW!('!-0%!*#2?%&!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!

(*!-0%!,4#*-<J!!SRJKLD!]0%&%!^ " +%_ % `D!&%$&%'%*-'!-0%!(*;(F(;#3787%F%7!,4*-&47!F3&(3?7%'!;(',#''%;!

(*!"%,-(4*!UJ!!/0%!&%23(*(*+!'#223-(4*!-%&2'!&%57%,-!<%3&!3*;!,4#*-<!5(=%;!%55%,-'JMY!!

Z$$&4=(23-%7<!-]48-0(&;'!45!%*-%&(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&'!;#&(*+!-0%!'32$7%!$%&(4;!]%&%!,4*F%&'(4*'!

5&42!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'D!]0(7%!-0%!4-0%&!-0(&;!]%&%!%*-(&%7<!*%]!'-4&%'J!!/0%!$3&32%-%&!45!(*-%&%'-!l!

MO!l!'04#7;!-0%&%54&%!?%!(*-%&$&%-%;!3'!-0%!]%(+0-%;!3F%&3+%!%55%,-!45!*%]!3*;!,4*F%&-%;!

"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!/0('!('!%`#(F37%*-!-4!-0%!%55%,-!45!3!*%]!"#$%&,%*-%&!(5!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!03F%!*4!

%55%,-!4*!]%(+0-D!3!$73#'(?7%!3''#2$-(4*!+(F%*!-0%!7(2(-%;!`#3*-(-<!45!544;!'47;!?<!;(',4#*-!

'-4&%'JMV!!6%!,42$#-%!0%-%&4'\%;3'-(,(-<8&4?#'-!'-3*;3&;!%&&4&'!,7#'-%&%;!?<!,4#*-<J!!!!!

/0%!(;%*-(5<(*+!3''#2$-(4*!54&!MO!('!-03-!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%!('!#*,4&&%73-%;!](-0!-0%!

%&&4&!-%&2J!!X4&2377<D!!

\ab#]JKL% <KL) " 58***************************************************************#++)!!/0%&%!('!7(--7%!&%3'4*!-4!'#'$%,-!#*4?'%&F%;!(*;(F(;#37!,03&3,-%&('-(,'!-4!?%!,4&&%73-%;!](-0!

,4#*-<87%F%7!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%!,4*;(-(4*37!4*!#*4?'%&F%;!,4#*-<!,03&3,-%&('-(,'J!!/0%&%54&%D!

-0%!(;%*-(5<(*+!3''#2$-(4*!('!%55%,-(F%7<!-03-!,03*+%'!4F%&!-(2%!(*!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%!3&%!

#*,4&&%73-%;!](-0!,03*+%'!4F%&!-(2%!(*!#*4?'%&F3?7%!,4#*-<!,03&3,-%&('-(,'!-03-!(2$3,-!?4;<!

]%(+0-J!!15!"#$%&,%*-%&!74,3-(4*'!3&%!-0%!&%'#7-!45!3!-]48$3&-!$&4,%''!(*!]0(,0!63723&-!'%7%,-'!

5(&'-!3!;('-3*,%!&(*+!3*;!-0%*!3!,4#*-<!](-0(*!-0%!;('-3*,%!&(*+D!-0%&%!3&%!-]4!&%3'4*'!54&!,4*,%&*!

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`#%*-!(*'-&#2%*-37!F3&(3?7%!3*37<'('J!

Page 16: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MN!!

](-0!-0('!3''#2$-(4*J!!94'-!4?F(4#'7<D!-0%!,04(,%!45!'-4&%!74,3-(4*'!](-0(*!3!;('-3*,%!&(*+!('!

%*;4+%*4#'J!!15!63723&-!,044'%'!,4#*-(%'!-&%*;(*+!#$]3&;!(*!-%&2'!45!$4$#73-(4*D!(*,42%D!3*;!

%,4*42(,!3,-(F(-<D!McO!,4#7;!?%!?(3'%;!;4]*]3&;!?%,3#'%!45!-0%!354&%2%*-(4*%;!*%+3-(F%!

3''4,(3-(4*!?%-]%%*!(*,42%!3*;!]%(+0-J!!Z7-%&*3-(F%7<D!&3$(;!%,4*42(,!;%F%74$2%*-!23<!

(*,&%3'%!3F3(73?(7(-<!45!&%'-3#&3*-!544;D!(*!]0(,0!,3'%!McO!,4#7;!?%!?(3'%;!#$]3&;J!!!

Z!'%,4*;D!-04#+0!7%''!4?F(4#'D!,4*,%&*!('!-03-!63723&-a'!-3&+%-%;!;('-3*,%!&(*+^'_!23<!

?%!-&%*;(*+!;(55%&%*-7<!(*!4?%'(-<!-03*!4-0%&!3&%3'!54&!&%3'4*'!3'(;%!5&42!63723&-J!!:3'\%&a'!

^KQQL_!3&+#2%*-!3?4#-!;(55%&%*-(37!-&%*;'!,4#7;!3$$7<!-4!?4;<!]%(+0-!(5!;(55%&%*,%'!(*!

;%24+&3$0(,!,03&3,-%&('-(,'!?%-]%%*!,43'-37!3*;!(*73*;!3&%3'!-&3*'73-%!-4!;(55%&%*-!+&4]-0!&3-%'!

45!4?%'(-<J!!Z!'$%,(5(,!,4*,%&*!('!-03-!'4#-0%&*!'-3-%'!03F%!0(+0%&!4?%'(-<!&3-%'!4*!3F%&3+%!-03*!

4-0%&!'-3-%'!^@%*-%&'!54&!B('%3'%!@4*-&47!3*;!I&%F%*-(4*D!KQQV_JKQ!!>5!,4#&'%D!'42%!45!-0('!

;(55%&%*,%!,4#7;!?%!-0%!,3#'37!%55%,-!45!63723&-D!]0(7%!2#,0!45!-0%!&%23(*(*+!&%+(4*37!F3&(3-(4*!

'04#7;!?%!,3$-#&%;!?<!-0%!,4#*-<!5(=%;!%55%,-'!3*;!,4*-&47'!54&!$4-%*-(37!,4*54#*;%&'!'#,0!3'!

(*,42%!3*;!%;#,3-(4*J!!Z7'4D!]0(7%!:%*-4*F(77%!('!-%,0*(,377<!(*!-0%!'4#-0D!(-'!74,3-(4*!(*!-0%!

*4&-0]%'-!,4&*%&!45!Z&\3*'3'!('!7%''!-03*!NQQ!2(7%'!5&42!-0%!+%4+&3$0(,!,%*-%&!45!-0%!EJ"J!!

@47#2?#'D!HZ!3*;!B%*F%&D!@>!3&%!*%3&7<!%`#(;('-3*-!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%D!3'!3&%!"0&%F%$4&-D!eZ!

3*;!"3(*-!e4#('D!9>!3'!]%77!3'!c*4=F(77%D!/G!3*;!93;('4*D!61!^@3&;%*!%-!37JD!KQQV3_J!!

G4*%-0%7%''D!-0%!$4''(?(7(-<!54&!?(3'!&%23(*'J!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

! 6%!*%=-!%7(2(*3-%!-0%!5(&'-!45!-0%'%!-]4!,4*,%&*'!?<!%'-(23-(*+!3*!(*'-&#2%*-37!F3&(3?7%'!

24;%7!#'(*+!(*-%&3,-(4*'!45!;('-3*,%!](-0!%3,0!45!-0%!<%3&!5(=%;!%55%,-'!3'!(*'-&#2%*-'!54&!

"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%J!!/0%!5(&'-!'-3+%!%'-(23-%'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KQ!1*;%%;D!-0%&%!('!%F%*!3*!3**#37!,4*5%&%*,%q-0%!"4#-0%&*!>?%'(-<!"#22(-q3(2%;!3-!&%;#,(*+!"4#-0%&*!4?%'(-<J!!/0%(&!]%?'(-%!('!]]]J'4#-0%&*4?%'(-<'#22(-J4&+J!!!

Page 17: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

ML!!

<KL " dN APdRSRJKLT

RUOAPeWX'W

Y

WUOAPf[\X[

G

[UOAPgW#hi<IK j X'W)

Y

WUOA kJKL************#+0)!

]0(7%!-0%!'%,4*;!'-3+%!%'-(23-%'!%`#3-(4*!^MQ_!#'(*+!$&%;(,-%;!(*'-%3;!45!3,-#37!"#$%&,%*-%&!

$&%'%*,%JKM!!hi<IK!('!,4#*-<!ca'!;('-3*,%!(*!2(7%'!5&42!63723&-a'!0%3;`#3&-%&'!(*!:%*-4*F(77%D!

Z[J!!B(55%&%*-!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'!54&!;('-3*,%!03F%!?%%*!#'%;!(*!-0%!7(-%&3-#&%J!!G%#23&\!%-!37J!^KQQY_!

,4*'-&#,-%;!3!'%-!45!;#22<!F3&(3?7%'!&%57%,-(*+!MQQ!2(7%!;('-3*,%!(*,&%2%*-'!^(J%J!7%''!-03*!MQQ!

2(7%'!5&42!:%*-4*!@4#*-<D!MQQ!-4!KQQ!2(7%'D!%-,J_J!!B#?%!%-!37J!^KQQO_!#'%;!;#22<!F3&(3?7%'!54&!

MQ!;('-3*,%!&(*+'!(*!-0%(&!?3'%7(*%!24;%7D!-04#+0!-0%<!4?-3(*%;!'(2(73&!&%'#7-'!](-0!3!F3&(%-<!45!

37-%&*3-(F%!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'J!!@3&;%*!%-!37J!^KQQV3_!#'%;!7(*%3&!3*;!`#3;&3-(,!;('-3*,%!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'J!!

>#&!&%'#7-'!&%23(*!F%&<!'(2(73&!&%+3&;7%''!45!-0%!5#*,-(4*37!54&2!54&!;('-3*,%D!'4!]%!#'%!-0%!

'(2$7%'-!'$%,(5(,3-(4*!l!7(*%3&!;('-3*,%!l!(*!4#&!?3'%7(*%!24;%7!3*;!%=$%&(2%*-!](-0!37-%&*3-(F%'!

(*!-0%!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\!'%,-(4*J!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

! /0%!(*'-&#2%*-37!F3&(3?7%'!24;%7!('!F37(;!#*;%&!-]4!3''#2$-(4*'J!!X(&'-D!-0%!;('-3*,%8<%3&!

(*-%&3,-(4*'!2#'-!(2$3,-!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%!,4*;(-(4*37!4*!-0%!,4*-&47'!3*;!5(=%;!%55%,-'J!!/0('!

3''#2$-(4*!('!%2$(&(,377<!-%'-3?7%!3*;!'%%2'!7(\%7<!-4!047;!+(F%*!-0%!$3--%&*!45!"#$%&,%*-%&!

%=$3*'(4*!;('$73<%;!(*!X(+#&%'!K8MQJ!!/0%!'%,4*;!l!3*;!24&%!,4*-&4F%&'(37!l!3''#2$-(4*!('!-03-!

-0%!;('-3*,%8<%3&!(*-%&3,-(4*'!,3*!?%!%=,7#;%;!5&42!-0%!'%,4*;8'-3+%!24;%7!^MQ_J!!1*!4-0%&!]4&;'D!

-0%<!;4!*4-!355%,-!]%(+0-!4-0%&!-03*!-04#+0!-0%(&!(2$3,-!4*!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%J!!/0%!

(*'-&#2%*-37!F3&(3?7%'!24;%7!-0%&%54&%!(2$&4F%'!4*!-0%!5(=%;!%55%,-'!24;%7!(*!-03-!(-!;4%'!*4-!

&%7<!4*!-0%!'-&4*+!3''#2$-(4*!-03-!"#$%&,%*-%&!74,3-(4*'!](-0(*!;('-3*,%!&(*+'!3&%!%=4+%*4#'J!!1-!

;4%'D!04]%F%&D!'-(77!&%7<!4*!-0%!3''#2$-(4*!-03-!-0%!;(55%&%*-!73<%&'!45!;('-3*,%!03F%!3!,4224*!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KM!6%!%'-(23-%!-0%!24;%7!#'(*+!-0%!"-3-3!24;#7%!=-(F&%+K!?<!",0355%&!^KQQN_J!!

Page 18: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MO!!

-&%*;!(*!#*4?'%&F3?7%!,03&3,-%&('-(,'!-03-!355%,-!?4;<!]%(+0-J!!6%!%=32(*%!-0%!F37(;(-<!45!-0('!

3''#2$-(4*!(*!"%,-(4*!L!](-0!3!'%&(%'!45!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'J!!!

5. Results

/3?7%!U!&%$4&-'!-0%!,4%55(,(%*-!%'-(23-%'!54&!-0%!;('-3*,%8<%3&!(*'-&#2%*-'!5&42!-0%!5(&'-8

'-3+%!&%+&%''(4*D!374*+!](-0!-0%!X!'-3-('-(,!5&42!3!-%'-!45!R4(*-!'(+*(5(,3*,%!45!-0%'%!F3&(3?7%'J!!

/0%!;('-3*,%AMVVL!(*-%&3,-(4*!('!42(--%;!-4!$&%F%*-!$%&5%,-!,477(*%3&(-<W!-0%!,4%55(,(%*-!%'-(23-%'!

,3*!-0%&%54&%!?%!(*-%&$&%-%;!3'!-0%!;(55%&%*,%!?%-]%%*!-0%!%55%,-!45!;('-3*,%!(*!-0%!+(F%*!<%3&!3*;!

-0%!%55%,-!45!;('-3*,%!(*!MVVLJ!!C3,0!;('-3*,%8<%3&!(*-%&3,-(4*!('!'(+*(5(,3*-!3-!-0%!Mb!7%F%7J!!/0%!

,4%55(,(%*-!%'-(23-%'!3&%!377!*%+3-(F%!3*;!?%,42%!(*,&%3'(*+7<!*%+3-(F%!%3,0!<%3&D!2%3*(*+!-03-!

;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!?%,32%!3!'-&4*+%&!$&%;(,-4&!45!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%!4F%&!-(2%!;#&(*+!

4#&!'32$7%!$%&(4;J!!/0%!X!'-3-('-(,!54&!R4(*-!'(+*(5(,3*,%!45!-0%!(*'-&#2%*-'!('!KMJOND!'35%7<!4F%&!

,4224*7<83,,%$-%;!7%F%7'!3-!]0(,0!3!]%3\!(*'-&#2%*-!$&4?7%2!,3*!?%!&#7%;!4#-J!

o1G"C[/!/Z:eC!U!fC[CJp!

! /3?7%!P!&%$4&-'!-0%!,4%55(,(%*-!%'-(23-%!45!(*-%&%'-!5&42!-0%!-]4!'%,4*;8'-3+%!&%+&%''(4*'D!

374*+!](-0!-0%!,4&&%'$4*;(*+!>e"!%'-(23-%'J!!6%!37'4!&%$4&-!&%'#7-'!5&42!3!f3#'23*!-%'-!45!-0%!

,4*'('-%*,<!45!-0%!>e"!%'-(23-4&D!3'!]%77!3'!-0%!$8F37#%!5&42!-0%!-%'-!45!-0%!4F%&(;%*-(5<(*+!

&%'-&(,-(4*'J!!/0%!>e"!%'-(23-%'!'#++%'-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!03F%!7(--7%!-4!*4!%55%,-!4*!:91!4&!4?%'(-<J!!

/0%!1g!%'-(23-%'D!04]%F%&D!3&%!?4-0!'-3-('-(,377<!'(+*(5(,3*-!3-!-0%!Mb!7%F%7!3*;!2#,0!24&%!

'-&4*+7<!$4'(-(F%!-03*!-0%!>e"!%'-(23-%'J!!Z*!3;;(-(4*37!"#$%&,%*-%&!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!

(*,&%3'%'!:91!?<!3*!3F%&3+%!45!QJKNM!#*(-'!l!MJL!$4#*;'!3-!-0%!'32$7%!2%3*!0%(+0-!l!3*;!

I^>?%'%_!?<!KJP!$%&,%*-3+%!$4(*-'J!!:4-0!f3#'23*!-%'-'!'-&4*+7<!&%R%,-!-0%!,4*'('-%*,<!45!-0%!

>e"!%'-(23-4&D!]0(7%!-0%!4F%&(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!-%'-'!53(7!-4!&%R%,-!-0%!*#77!0<$4-0%'('!-03-!-0%!'%-!45!

Page 19: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MY!!

(*'-&#2%*-'!('!F37(;J!!^Z;2(--%;7<D!-0%!&%'#7-'!5&42!-0%!4F%&(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!-%'-!3&%!45!7(2(-%;!

#'%5#7*%''!'(*,%!377!(*'-&#2%*-'!3&%!,4*'-&#,-%;!#'(*+!-0%!'32%!;('-3*,%!F3&(3?7%J_!!

o1G"C[/!/Z:eC!P!fC[CJp!

! 6%!*%=-!%F37#3-%!-0%!%,4*42(,!'(+*(5(,3*,%!45!-0%'%!&%'#7-'!?<!#'(*+!-0%!%'-(23-%;!%55%,-!

4*!4?%'(-<!-4!3*']%&!-]4!`#%'-(4*'T!M_!603-!$4&-(4*!45!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<!'(*,%!(*!MVYY!l!]0%*!

-0%!5(&'-!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&!4$%*%;!l!,3*!?%!3--&(?#-%;!-4!"#$%&,%*-%&'D!3*;!K_!f4]!2#,0!45!

,4*'#2%&'a!'3F(*+'!5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!3&%!455'%-!?<!3;;(-(4*37!2%;(,37!%=$%*'%'!

5&42!-0%!(*,&%3'%;!4?%'(-<!&3-%.!!X4&!-0%!5(&'-!`#%'-(4*D!;%5(*%!lm!3'!-0%!,03*+%!(*!-0%!:[X""!

4?%'(-<!&3-%!?%-]%%*!MVYY!3*;!KQQND!MPJU!$%&,%*-3+%!$4(*-'J!!<n!('!-0%!'32$7%!2%3*!54&!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!(*!KQQND!3*;!opoG!('!-0%!%'-(23-%;!%55%,-!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!

4?%'(-<!5&42!-0%!?3'%7(*%!1g!&%+&%''(4*J!!/0%!$%&,%*-3+%!45!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<!-03-!,3*!?%!

3--&(?#-%;!-4!"#$%&,%*-%&'!('!

,G "<n j 3m3<lm j +55q " 58;9+ j 58502

58+21 j +55q " +58Cq8**************************#+1)!

>#&!&%'#7-'!-0%&%54&%!(2$7<!-03-!-0%!%=('-%*,%!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!3,,4#*-'!54&!MQJVb!45!-0%!

&('%!(*!4?%'(-<!'(*,%!-0%!73-%!MVYQ'J!!!

/0%!$%&,%*-3+%!45!'3F(*+'!5&42!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!455'%-!?<!-0%!(*,&%3'%;!2%;(,37!

%=$%*;(-#&%'!('!!

,prrGst "<n j 3m3< j u(h$ j <vw j +55q8**********************************************#+2)!

<n j opoG!&%$&%'%*-'!-0%!$%&,%*-3+%!(*,&%3'%!(*!4?%'(-<!5&42!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!u(h!&%$&%'%*-'!-0%!-4-37!

3**#37!2%;(,37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!(*!-0%!EJ"J!5&42!4?%'(-<D!%'-(23-%;!3-!jMMO!?(77(4*!^EJ"J!

B%$3&-2%*-!45!f%37-0!3*;!f#23*!"%&F(,%'D!KQQM_J!!/0%!-4-37!3**#37!'3F(*+'!5&42!63723&-!('!

Page 20: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

MV!!

%`#37!-4!-0%!*#2?%&!45!04#'%047;'!H!-(2%'!-0%!3F%&3+%!'3F(*+'!$%&!04#'%047;!<vwJ!!X4&!HD!]%!

#'%!-0%!*#2?%&!45!04#'%047;'!(*!-0%!EJ"J!3,,4&;(*+!-4!-0%!KQQQ!,%*'#'D!MQNDPYQDMQMJKK!!1*!

Z$$%*;(=!ZD!]%!,37,#73-%!<vw " x+== ?3'%;!4*!%'-(23-%'!45!63723&-a'!$&(,%!%55%,-'!5&42!-0%!

7(-%&3-#&%!3*;!(*54&23-(4*!5&42!-0%!KQQK!Census of Retail Trade!3*;!63723&-a'!KQQK!3**#37!

&%$4&-J!!"(*,%!-0('!%'-(23-%!('!?3'%;!4*!KQQK!(*54&23-(4*D!]%!37'4!#'%!KQQK!7%F%7'!45!"#$%&,%*-%&!

$&%F37%*,%!54&!<nJ!!E7-(23-%7<D!

,prrGst "581C5 j 58502 j x++=%555%555%555

+59%2>5%+5+ j x+== " 98Cq8*******************************#+9)!

>#&!%'-(23-%'!-0%&%54&%!'#++%'-!-03-!2%;(,37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!5&42!-0%!(*,&%3'%!(*!4?%'(-<!455'%-!

3$$&4=(23-%7<!NJVb!45!,4*'#2%&'a!'3F(*+'!5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!60(7%!4#&!

,37,#73-(4*'!3&%!3;2(--%;7<!,&#;%D!-0%<!3&%!'#55(,(%*-!-4!(77#'-&3-%!-0%!$4(*-!-03-D!]0(7%!63723&-!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!3$$%3&!-4!03F%!?%%*!3*!(2$4&-3*-!,4*-&(?#-4&!-4!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<D!-0%!4?%'(-<!

%55%,-!4*7<!455'%-'!3!'2377!$4&-(4*!45!-0%!'3F(*+'!5&42!-0%(&!74]%&!$&(,%'J!!

6. Robustness Checks

! 1*!-0('!'%,-(4*D!]%!%F37#3-%!-0%!'%*'(-(F(-<!45!4#&!?3'%7(*%!1g!%'-(23-%'!-4!3!*#2?%&!45!

37-%&*3-(F%!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'J!!>#&!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'!5377!(*-4!54#&!,3-%+4&(%'T!M_!37-%&*3-%!5#*,-(4*37!

54&2'!54&!-0%!"#$%&,%*-%&!F3&(3?7%D!K_!37-%&*3-%!5#*,-(4*37!54&2'!54&!-0%!;('-3*,%8<%3&!

(*'-&#2%*-'D!U_!,0%,\(*+!]0%-0%&!-0%!%'-(23-%'!3&%!,4*54#*;%;!?<!63723&-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!

4&!"32a'!@7#?!%*-&<D!3*;!P_!%F37#3-(*+!-0%!$4-%*-(37!54&!?(3'!5&42!;(55%&%*-(37!-&%*;'!(*!]%(+0-!4*!

-0%!?3'('!45!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%J!

! 60(7%!4#&!',37(*+!45!-0%!*#2?%&!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!(*!-0%!,4#*-<!?<!$4$#73-(4*!54774]'!

2#,0!45!-0%!63723&-!7(-%&3-#&%D!$3$%&'!(*!-0%!7(-%&3-#&%!03F%!37'4!#'%;!-0%!&3]!*#2?%&!45!'-4&%'!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KK!"%%!0--$Tmm`#(,\53,-'J,%*'#'J+4Fm`5;m'-3-%'mQQQQQJ0-27J!

Page 21: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KQ!!

^:3'\%&!3*;!G4%7D!KQQO_!3*;!3!?(*3&<!F3&(3?7%!&%57%,-(*+!]0%-0%&!-0%&%!('!3-!7%3'-!4*%!'-4&%!(*!-0%!

,4#*-<!^:3'\%&D!KQQN?_J!!1*!I3*%7!Z!45!/3?7%!ND!]%!&%$4&-!-0%!&%'#7-'!#'(*+!-0%'%!-]4!5#*,-(4*37!

54&2'!54&!"#$%&,%*-%&'D!3'!]%77!3'!3*4-0%&!'$%,(5(,3-(4*!-03-!',37%'!-0%!*#2?%&!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!

?<!73*;!3&%3!(*!0#*;&%;'!45!'`#3&%!2(7%'J!!/0%!%55%,-'!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!:91!3*;!I^>?%'%_!

&%23(*!$4'(-(F%!(*!377!&%+&%''(4*'D!3*;!3&%!'-3-('-(,377<!'(+*(5(,3*-!(*!5(F%!45!-0%!'(=J!!/0%!

23+*(-#;%'!3&%!*4-!,42$3&3?7%!3,&4''!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'!?%,3#'%!3!4*%!#*(-!(*,&%3'%!(*!-0%!

"#$%&,%*-%&!F3&(3?7%!&%$&%'%*-'!3!;(55%&%*-!'04,\!-4!-0%!23&\%-!;%$%*;(*+!4*!]0(,0!5#*,-(4*37!

54&2!('!#'%;J!!X4&!(*'-3*,%D!3*!3;;(-(4*37!"#$%&,%*-%&!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!('!3*!(*,&%3'%!45!MJKL!

'-3*;3&;!;%F(3-(4*'D!]0(7%!3*!3;;(-(4*37!^#*',37%;_!"#$%&,%*-%&!('!3*!(*,&%3'%!45!QJOP!'-3*;3&;!

;%F(3-(4*'J!!G4*%-0%7%''D!-0%!&%'#7-'!5&42!I3*%7!Z!'04]!-03-!-0%!,4*,7#'(4*!-03-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!

(*,&%3'%!:91!3*;!4?%'(-<!;4%'!*4-!;%$%*;!4*!-0%!5#*,-(4*37!54&2!#'%;!54&!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!6%!

-0%&%54&%!&%-#&*!-4!-0%!$%&!,3$(-3!"#$%&,%*-%&!2%3'#&%!54&!377!'#?'%`#%*-!&%+&%''(4*'J!

o1G"C[/!/Z:eC!N!fC[CJp!

! 6%!*%=-!%=32(*%!-0%!'%*'(-(F(-<!45!-0%!&%'#7-'!-4!-0%!;(55%&%*-!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'!54&!-0%!

;('-3*,%8<%3&!(*-%&3,-(4*'!#'%;!(*!-0%!63723&-!7(-%&3-#&%J!!Z'!;(',#''%;!(*!"%,-(4*!PD!-0%'%!

(*,7#;%!3!`#3;&3-(,!5#*,-(4*37!54&2!54&!;('-3*,%!^@3&;%*!%-!37JD!KQQV3_D!;('-3*,%!&(*+'!45!MQQ!

2(7%'!^G%#23&\!%-!3-D!KQQY_D!3*;!MQ!;('-3*,%!&(*+'!^B#?%!%-!37JD!KQQO_J!!6%!,4*'-&#,-!;('-3*,%!

&(*+'!45!MQQ!2(7%'!?<!,&%3-(*+!3!;#22<!F3&(3?7%!%`#37!-4!4*%!(5!-0%!,4#*-<!('!7%''!-03*!MQQ!2(7%'!

5&42!:%*-4*F(77%D!3*4-0%&!(5!-0%!,4#*-<!('!MQQ!4&!24&%!2(7%'!3]3<!?#-!7%''!-03*!KQQD!%-,JD!#$!-4!

-0%!73'-!&(*+!45!MLQQ!2(7%'!4&!24&%JKU!!6%!-0%*!,&%3-%!-0%!'%-!45!(*'-&#2%*-'!?<!(*-%&3,-(*+!%3,0!

45!-0%!;('-3*,%!&(*+!;#22(%'!](-0!%3,0!45!-0%!<%3&!5(=%;!%55%,-'J!!!1*!-0%!24;%7'!](-0!MQ!;('-3*,%!

&(*+'D!%3,0!&(*+!&%$&%'%*-'!MOQJUM!2(7%'D!&%57%,-(*+!-0%!23=(2#2!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!(*!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KU!/0%!23=(2#2!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!(*!-0%!'32$7%!('!MOQUJM!2(7%'W!]%!,42?(*%!-0%!5%]!4?'%&F3-(4*'!54&!]042!;('-3*,%!('!+&%3-%&!-03*!MOQQ!2(7%'!](-0!-0%!MLQQ8MOQQ!2(7%!,3-%+4&<J!!

Page 22: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KM!!

-0%!'32$7%!;(F(;%;!?<!MQJ!!Z'!'04]*!(*!I3*%7!:!45!/3?7%!ND!-0%!%'-(23-%'!3&%!F(&-#377<!(;%*-(,37!

-4!-0%!?3'%7(*%!%'-(23-%'!5&42!/3?7%!PJ!!/0%!&%'#7-'!3&%!-0%&%54&%!*4-!'%*'(-(F%!-4!;(55%&%*-!

5#*,-(4*37!54&2'!54&!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%D!3*;!]%!&%-#&*!-4!-0%!7(*%3&!'$%,(5(,3-(4*!(*!

'#?'%`#%*-!&%+&%''(4*'!#*7%''!4-0%&]('%!(*;(,3-%;J!

! G%=-D!]%!,4*'(;%&!-0%!$4''(?(7(-<!-03-!4#&!%'-(23-%'!3&%!,4*54#*;%;!?<!63723&-!;(',4#*-!

'-4&%!4&!"32a'!@7#?!%*-&<J!!"(*,%!-0%'%!-]4!,03(*'!3&%!37'4!4$%&3-%;!?<!63723&-!"-4&%'D!1*,JD!

-0%(&!%=$3*'(4*!$3--%&*'!]%&%!7(\%7<!(*57#%*,%;!?<!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%J!!15!-0%'%!'-4&%'!

(2$3,-!?4;<!]%(+0-D!4#&!1g!%'-(23-4&!45!-0%!%55%,-!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!,4#7;!$4-%*-(377<!?%!?(3'%;J!!

f4]%F%&D!(-!'%%2'!#*7(\%7<!-03-!?(3'!5&42!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!4&!"32a'!@7#?'!('!;&(F(*+!4#&!&%'#7-'!

54&!-]4!&%3'4*'J!!X(&'-D!]%!&%'-&(,-%;!-0%!'32$7%!-4!-0%!<%3&'!MVVL!3*;!73-%&!?%,3#'%D!3'!

;4,#2%*-%;!?<!G%#23&\!%-!37J!^KQQY_D!63723&-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!03;!'$&%3;!-4!377!,4&*%&'!45!-0%!

EJ"J!?<!MVVND!35-%&!]0(,0!$4(*-!*%]!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!%*-%&%;!-4!5(77!+3$'!(*'-%3;!45!%=$3*;!-0%!

,03(*!-4!*%]!-%&&(-4&<J!!B('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!-0%&%54&%!$&%;(,-'!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!2#,0!

24&%!]%3\7<!(*!-0%!$4'-8MVVN!$%&(4;!-03*!(*!-0%!$&%8MVVN!$%&(4;J!!"(2(73&7<D!"32a'!@7#?'!03;!

37'4!'$&%3;!-4!377!,4&*%&'!45!-0%!EJ"J!?<!MVVNJ!!!

"%,4*;D!%F%*!(5!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!;(;!'-&4*+7<!$&%;(,-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!3*;!"32a'!

@7#?!%*-&<!;#&(*+!-0%!'32$7%!$%&(4;D!(-!'%%2'!#*7(\%7<!-03-!-0%'%!'-4&%'!03F%!2%3*(*+5#7!%55%,-'!

4*!?4;<!]%(+0-J!!B(',4#*-!'-4&%'!'%77!$&(23&(7<!,4*'#2%&!+44;'!'#,0!3'!,74-0(*+!3*;!%7%,-&4*(,'D!

'4!-0%<!$&4?3?7<!;4!*4-!'(+*(5(,3*-7<!(2$3,-!23&\%-!$&(,%'!54&!544;J!!"32a'!@7#?'!$&(23&(7<!

'%&F%;!'2377!?#'(*%''%'!;#&(*+!-0%!'32$7%!$%&(4;D!3'!%F(;%*,%;!?<!-0%(&!'74+3*!h6%!3&%!(*!

?#'(*%''!54&!'2377!?#'(*%''JiKP!!1-!('!-0%&%54&%!#*7(\%7<!-03-!-0%<!355%,-!,4*'#2%&'a!%3-(*+!03?(-'!

%*4#+0!-4!7%3;!-4!2%3*(*+5#7!,03*+%'!(*!]%(+0-J!!G4*%-0%7%''D!]%!,4*;#,-!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'!-4!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KP!"%%!0--$Tmm]]]J5#*;(*+#*(F%&'%J,42m,42$3*<80('-4&(%'m"32'8@7#?8@42$3*<8f('-4&<J0-27!54&!3!?&(%5!0('-4&<!45!"32a'!@7#?!-03-!;(',#''%'!(-'!54,#'!4*!'2377!?#'(*%''%'!?%+(**(*+!(*!MVVPJ!

Page 23: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KK!!

-%'-!]0%-0%&!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!3*;!"32a'!@7#?'!,4*54#*;!4#&!%'-(23-%'!54&!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!6%!

,4*-&47!54&!-0%!$%&!,3$(-3!*#2?%&!45!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!3*;!"32a'!@7#?'!4$%*%;!(*!-0%!,4#*-<D!3*;!

]%!37'4!%'-(23-%!24;%7'!;&4$$(*+!,4#*-(%'!-03-!%=$%&(%*,%;!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!4&!"32a'!@7#?!%*-&<!

;#&(*+!-0%!'32$7%!$%&(4;J!!Z'!'04]*!(*!I3*%7!@!45!/3?7%!ND!,4*-&477(*+!54&!-0%'%!'-4&%'!03'!

%''%*-(377<!*4!%55%,-!4*!-0%!%'-(23-%'D!]0(7%!;&4$$(*+!,4#*-(%'!-03-!%=$%&(%*,%;!-0%(&!%*-&<!

3,-#377<!(*,&%3'%'!-0%!%'-(23-%'!'42%]03-J!!6%!-0%&%54&%!5(*;!*4!%F(;%*,%!-03-!*%+7%,-(*+!-4!

3,,4#*-!54&!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!4&!"32a'!@7#?'!7%;!-4!-0%!%'-(23-(4*!45!3!'$#&(4#'!$4'(-(F%!%55%,-!45!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!]%(+0-!(*!-0%!?3'%7(*%!&%+&%''(4*J!

! X(*377<D!]%!%'-(23-%!3!*#2?%&!45!3;;(-(4*37!24;%7'!-4!%=32(*%!-0%!F37(;(-<!45!-0%!

3''#2$-(4*!-03-!#*;%&7<(*+!-&%*;'!(*!?4;<!]%(+0-!;4!*4-!F3&<!'<'-%23-(,377<!4*!-0%!?3'('!45!

;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%J!!Z'!;(',#''%;!(*!"%,-(4*!PD!:%*-4*F(77%!('!74,3-%;!,74'%!-4!-0%!,%*-%&!

45!-0%!EJ"J!3*;!('!%`#(;('-3*-!5&42!F%&<!;(F%&'%!74,3-(4*'D!'4!(-!('!*4-!(22%;(3-%7<!4?F(4#'!-03-!

-0('!3''#2$-(4*!]4#7;!?%!F(473-%;J!!Z'!*4-%;!?<!:3'\%&!^KQQL_D!04]%F%&D!73&+%!$4$#73-(4*!

,%*-%&'!l!]0(,0!23<!%=$%&(%*,%!;(55%&%*-!%,4*42(,!'04,\'!-03*!4-0%&!3&%3'!l!3&%!74,3-%;!

;('$&4$4&-(4*3-%7<!*%3&!-0%!,43'-'!3*;!5#&-0%&!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%J!!6%!-0%&%54&%!-%'-!54&!;(55%&%*-(37!

-&%*;'!4*!-0%!?3'('!45!$4$#73-(4*!3*;!%,4*42(,!3,-(F(-<!?<!%'-(23-(*+!24;%7'!(*,7#;(*+!

(*-%&3,-(4*'!45!-0%!<%3&!5(=%;!%55%,-'!](-0!,4#*-<!$4$#73-(4*!;%*'(-<D!#*%2$74<2%*-!&3-%D!+&4,%&<!

'-4&%'!$%&!,3$(-3D!3*;!+%*%&37!2%&,03*;('%!'-4&%'!$%&!,3$(-3JKN!!6%!37'4!&#*!&%+&%''(4*'!;&4$$(*+!

-0%!5#&-0%'-!MQb!45!,4#*-(%'!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!^-04'%!?%<4*;!MMMVJOP!2(7%'_D!-0%!,74'%'-!MQb!45!

,4#*-(%'!-4!:%*-4*F(77%!^-04'%!](-0(*!KLPJQL!2(7%'_D!3*;!,4#*-(%'!](-0!3!$4$#73-(4*!45!4F%&!

MDQQQDQQQJ!!/0('!0%7$'!-4!%*'#&%!-03-!4#&!&%'#7-'!3&%!*4-!;&(F%*!?<!73&+%!,43'-37!$4$#73-(4*!,%*-%&'!

3*;m4&!&#&37!3&%3'!,74'%!-4!:%*-4*F(77%J!!G%=-D!]%!%'-(23-%!-]4!24;%7'!-03-!3,,4#*-!54&!

;(55%&%*-(37!-&%*;'!24&%!+%*%&377<T!4*%!(*,7#;(*+!7(*%3&!MQQ!2(7%!;('-3*,%!&(*+8'$%,(5(,!-(2%!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KN![#02!^KQQQD!KQQN_!;4,#2%*-'!3!*%+3-(F%!&%73-(4*'0($!?%-]%%*!#*%2$74<2%*-!&3-%!3*;!4?%'(-<J!

Page 24: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KU!!

-&%*;'D!3*;!3*4-0%&!(*,7#;(*+!(*-%&3,-(4*'!45!-0%!<%3&!5(=%;!%55%,-'!](-0!;#22<!F3&(3?7%'!

&%57%,-(*+!-0%!*(*%!EJ"J!@%*'#'!:#&%3#!,%*'#'!;(F('(4*'JKL!![(*+8'$%,(5(,!-(2%!-&%*;'!3*;!,%*'#'!

;(F('(4*8?<8<%3&!%55%,-'!%7(2(*3-%!2#,0!45!-0%!F3&(3-(4*!(*!-0%!(*'-&#2%*-'!(5!-0%!7(*%3&!

'$%,(5(,3-(4*!54&!;('-3*,%!('!#'%;W!]%!-0%&%54&%!#'%!-0%!24'-!57%=(?7%!45!-0%!;('-3*,%!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'!

l!MQQ!2(7%!;('-3*,%!&(*+'!l!54&!-0%!(*'-&#2%*-'!(*!-0%'%!&%+&%''(4*'J!!X(*377<D!]%!,4*'(;%&!3!

;(55%&%*-!(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!'-&3-%+<!37-4+%-0%&T!]%!#'%!(*-%&3,-(4*'!45!-0%!<%3&!%55%,-'!](-0!;('-3*,%!

5&42!-0%!*%3&%'-!63723&-!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&!3'!-0%!(*'-&#2%*-'J!!/0('!3$$&43,0!('!7%''!

'#',%$-(?7%!-4!,4*,%&*!3?4#-!;(55%&%*-(37!-&%*;'!?%-]%%*!,43'-37!3*;!(*73*;!3&%3'!?%,3#'%!

63723&-!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&'!3&%!',3--%&%;!-0&4#+04#-!-0%!,4#*-&<J!!f4]%F%&D!544;!

;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&!74,3-(4*'!3*;!"#$%&,%*-%&!74,3-(4*'!23<!?%!R4(*-7<!;%-%&2(*%;J!!6%!37'4!

%'-(23-%!3!24;%7!#'(*+!?4-0!-0%!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%8<%3&!(*-%&3,-(4*'!3*;!-0%!;('-3*,%!

5&42!-0%!*%3&%'-!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&8<%3&!(*-%&3,-(4*'!3'!(*'-&#2%*-'J!!!

I3*%7!B!45!/3?7%!N!;('$73<'!-0%!&%'#7-'!5&42!-0%'%!3;;(-(4*37!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'J!!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!3&%!'-3-('-(,377<!'(+*(5(,3*-!(*!KQ!45!-0%!KK!&%+&%''(4*'D!3*;!-0%!%'-(23-%'!3&%!'(2(73&!

3,&4''!-0%!;(55%&%*-!'$%,(5(,3-(4*'J!!Z*!3;;(-(4*37!"#$%&,%*-%&!(*,&%3'%'!:91!?<!QJKM8QJUN!#*(-'!

3*;!I^>?%'%_!?<!MJP8UJP!$%&,%*-3+%!$4(*-'J!!/0%!VNb!,4*5(;%*,%!(*-%&F37'!(*,7#;%!-0%!$4(*-!

%'-(23-%!5&42!-0%!?3'%7(*%!1g!&%+&%''(4*!(*!377!KK!&%+&%''(4*'D!'4!-0%&%!('!*4!%F(;%*,%!-03-!-0%!

?3'%7(*%!%'-(23-4&!('!(*,4*'('-%*-J!!6%!4*7<!&%$4&-!-0%!4F%&(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!-%'-!$8F37#%!54&!-0%!

&%+&%''(4*!](-0!-0%!;('-3*,%'!5&42!?4-0!:%*-4*F(77%!3*;!-0%!*%3&%'-!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&!3'!

(*'-&#2%*-'D!3'!-0('!('!-0%!4*7<!24;%7!](-0!3!$73#'(?7%!4F%&(;%*-(5<(*+!&%'-&(,-(4*J!!X4&!?4-0!:91!

3*;!4?%'(-<!'-3-#'D!-0%!4F%&(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!-%'-!53(7'!-4!&%R%,-!-0%!*#77!0<$4-0%'('!-03-!-0%!'%-!45!

(*'-&#2%*-'!('!F37(;J!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KL!@%*'#'!;(F('(4*!,73''(5(,3-(4*'!3&%!3F3(73?7%!3-!0--$Tmm]]]J,%*'#'J+4Fm+%4m]]]m#'n&%+;(FJ$;5J!

Page 25: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KP!!

7. Heterogeneity

6%!*%=-!&%-#&*!-4!-0%!?3'%7(*%!1g!24;%7!3*;!%F37#3-%!-0%!$4-%*-(37!54&!0%-%&4+%*%(-<!4*!

-0%!?3'%'!45!+%*;%&D!(*,42%D!3*;!,4#*-<!$4$#73-(4*J!!"-&3-(5<(*+!?<!+%*;%&!('!,4224*!(*!-0%!

4?%'(-<!7(-%&3-#&%J!!6%!'-&3-(5<!?<!(*,42%!3*;!$4$#73-(4*!3'!]%77!'(*,%!63723&-a'!'04$$%&'!3&%!

;('$&4$4&-(4*3-%7<!74]8(*,42%!(*;(F(;#37'!7(F(*+!(*!&#&37!3&%3'!4&!'2377!-4]*'J!!X4&!(*,42%!3*;!

$4$#73-(4*D!]%!;(F(;%!-0%!'32$7%!(*-4!-04'%!?%74]!-0%!KN-0!$%&,%*-(7%D!?%-]%%*!-0%!KN-0!3*;!ON-0!

$%&,%*-(7%'D!3*;!3?4F%!-0%!ON-0!$%&,%*-(7%J!!60%*!'$7(--(*+!-0%!'32$7%!?<!(*,42%D!]%!37'4!'-&3-(5<!

?<!23&(-37!'-3-#'!'(*,%!04#'%047;!(*,42%!;%$%*;'!73&+%7<!4*!-0%!*#2?%&!45!3;#7-'!(*!-0%!532(7<J!

! /3?7%!L!&%$4&-'!-0%!&%'#7-'J!!/0%!%55%,-!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'!4*!:91!('!'-&4*+%&!54&!]42%*!

-03*!2%*D!?#-!-0%!%55%,-!4*!I^>?%'%_!('!'-&4*+%&!54&!2%*J!!/0('!'#++%'-'!-03-!-0%!(2$3,-!4*!2%*!

('!'\%]%;!24&%!0%3F(7<!-4]3&;!-0%!&(+0-!-3(7!45!-0%!:91!;('-&(?#-(4*J!!"#$%&,%*-%&'!03F%!-0%!

'-&4*+%'-!%55%,-!4*!-0%!]%(+0-'!45!74]8(*,42%!23&&(%;!(*;(F(;#37'D!]0(7%!-0%&%!('!*4!,7%3&!

,4**%,-(4*!?%-]%%*!-0%!(*,42%!45!'(*+7%!(*;(F(;#37'!3*;!-0%!'-&%*+-0!45!-0%!%55%,-J!!/0%!24'-!

'-&(\(*+!&%'#7-!'04]*!(*!-0%!-3?7%D!04]%F%&D!('!-0%!'-&4*+!(2$3,-!4*!-0%!]%(+0-!45!$%4$7%!7(F(*+!(*!

-0%!7%3'-!$4$#73-%;!3&%3'J!!Z*!3;;(-(4*37!"#$%&,%*-%&!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'!(*,&%3'%'!3F%&3+%!

:91!?<!QJO!#*(-'!^PJN!$4#*;'!3-!-0%!'32$7%!2%3*!0%(+0-_!3*;!I^>?%'%_!?<!LJK!$%&,%*-3+%!$4(*-'!

324*+!(*;(F(;#37'!?%74]!-0%!KN-0!$%&,%*-(7%!(*!,4#*-<!$4$#73-(4*J!!/0%'%!73&+%!%55%,-'!23<!

&%57%,-!-0%!&%73-(F%!73,\!45!'04$$(*+!37-%&*3-(F%'!(*!&#&37!3&%3'J!

o1G"C[/!/Z:eC!L!fC[CJp

8. Conclusion

/0('!$3$%&!%=$74(-'!-0%!#*(`#%!+%4+&3$0(,!$3--%&*!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&!%=$3*'(4*!-4!

(;%*-(5<!-0%!%55%,-!45!,4#*-<87%F%7!"#$%&,%*-%&!$&%'%*,%!4*!(*;(F(;#37!:91!3*;!4?%'(-<!'-3-#'J!!

6%!5(*;!%F(;%*,%!-03-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!(*,&%3'%!?4-0!:91!3*;!4?%'(-<D!](-0!%55%,-'!-03-!3&%!73&+%'-!

Page 26: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KN!!

54&!]42%*D!74]8(*,42%!23&&(%;!(*;(F(;#37'D!3*;!-04'%!7(F(*+!(*!-0%!7%3'-!$4$#74#'!,4#*-(%'J!!/0%!

%'-(23-%'!(2$7<!-03-!-0%!$&47(5%&3-(4*!45!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!%=$73(*'!MMb!45!-0%!&('%!(*!

4?%'(-<!'(*,%!-0%!73-%!MVYQ'D!?#-!-03-!-0%!(*,&%3'%!(*!2%;(,37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!455'%-'!4*7<!Lb!45!

,4*'#2%&'a!'3F(*+'!5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!63723&-J!!!

6%!,4*-&(?#-%!-4!-0%!63723&-!7(-%&3-#&%!?<!$&4F(;(*+!(*54&23-(4*!3?4#-!4*%!45!23*<!

53,-4&'!-03-!,422#*(-(%'!'04#7;!,4*'(;%&!]0%*!(*,%*-(F()(*+!63723&-!%*-&<J!!6%!37'4!,4*-&(?#-%!

2%-04;474+(,377<!?<!'04](*+!-03-!;('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!$&%;(,-'!"#$%&,%*-%&!%*-&<!(*!-0%!

$4'-8MVVN!$%&(4;!(*!2#,0!-0%!'32%!]3<!-03-!(-!$&%;(,-%;!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!(*!-0%!$&%8MVVN!

$%&(4;J!!/0('!23<!$&4F%!#'%5#7!(*!(;%*-(5<(*+!4-0%&!%55%,-'!45!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!94&%!+%*%&377<D!4#&!

%=03#'-(F%!&4?#'-*%''!-%'-(*+!,4*-&(?#-%'!-4!-0%!4*+4(*+!;%?3-%!3?4#-!-0%!;('-3*,%!5&42!

:%*-4*F(77%!(*'-&#2%*-!?<!'04](*+!-03-!(-!('!7(\%7<!3$$&4$&(3-%!(*!3-!7%3'-!'42%!,4*-%=-'J!!!!

6%!,4*-&(?#-%!-4!-0%!4?%'(-<!7(-%&3-#&%!?<!(;%*-(5<(*+!3*4-0%&!2%,03*('2!l!(2$&4F%;!

%55(,(%*,<!(*!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!l!-0&4#+0!]0(,0!-%,0*474+(,37!$&4+&%''!7(\%7<!,4*-&(?#-%;!-4!-0%!

&('%!(*!4?%'(-<J!!>#&!5(*;(*+'!%$(-42()%!3*!4*+4(*+!;%?3-%!3?4#-!-0%!3$$&4$&(3-%*%''!45!$47(,<!

(*-%&F%*-(4*'!;%'(+*%;!-4!&%;#,%!4?%'(-<J!!/0%!&%'#7-'!3&%!,4*'('-%*-!](-0!3&+#2%*-'!23;%!?<!

e3\;3]3773!%-!37J!^KQQN_!3*;!4-0%&'!-03-!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<!,3*!?%!73&+%7<!3--&(?#-%;!-4!&3-(4*37!

&%'$4*'%'!-4!,03*+(*+!(*,%*-(F%'!5&42!]%753&%8%*03*,(*+!-%,0*474+(,37!,03*+%D!(*!]0(,0!,3'%!

+4F%&*2%*-!(*-%&5%&%*,%!]4#7;!?%!'4,(377<!]3'-%5#7J!!f4]%F%&D!-0%!$4-%*-(37!%=('-'!54&!23&\%-!

53(7#&%'!-4!7%3;!-4!'#?84$-(237!]%(+0-!4#-,42%'J!!9%;(,37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!,&%3-%!3!*%+3-(F%!

%=-%&*37(-<!3'!(*;(F(;#37'!&3&%7<!$3<!-0%(&!4]*!2%;(,37!?(77'!^:03--3,03&<3!3*;!"44;D!KQQN_J!!

@4*'#2%&'!-0%&%54&%!&%,%(F%!-0%!?%*%5(-'!5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!63723&-!?#-!;4!*4-!(*-%&*37()%!-0%!

,4'-'D!$4-%*-(377<!7%3;(*+!-4!;('-4&-(4*'J!!Z7'4D!'%758,4*-&47!$&4?7%2'!7(\%7<!$73<!3!&47%!(*!4?%'(-<!

Page 27: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KL!!

^@#-7%&!%-!37JD!KQQU_D!3*;!,0%3$!544;!5&42!"#$%&,%*-%&'!23<!%=3,%&?3-%!-0%'%!'%758,4*-&47!

$&4?7%2'J!!

>#&!5(*;(*+'!$4(*-!-4!*3-#&37!3F%*#%'!54&!5#-#&%!&%'%3&,0J!!X#-#&%!]4&\!'04#7;!(*F%'-(+3-%!

-0%!2%,03*('2'!-0&4#+0!]0(,0!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!(2$3,-!?4;<!]%(+0-J!!/0%!:[X""!;3-3!;4!

*4-!(*,7#;%!;%-3(7%;!(*54&23-(4*!4*!%3-(*+!03?(-'!;#&(*+!4#&!'32$7%!$%&(4;D!$&%F%*-(*+!'#,0!3*!

3*37<'('!0%&%J!!>5!$3&-(,#73&!(*-%&%'-!('!]0%-0%&!-0%!(*,&%3'%!(*!]%(+0-!&%'#7-'!5&42!3*!3,&4''8-0%8

?43&;!(*,&%3'%!(*!544;!,4*'#2$-(4*!3'!4$$4'%;!-4!3!'#?'-(-#-(4*!5&42!0%37-0<!-4!#*0%37-0<!544;'J!!

/0%!54&2%&!]4#7;!2%3*!-03-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!(2$&4F%!*#-&(%*-!(*-3\%D!$4-%*-(377<!455'%--(*+!'42%!45!

-0%!0%37-0!,4*'%`#%*,%'!45!-0%!&('%!(*!4?%'(-<J!![%'%3&,0!'04#7;!37'4!,4*'(;%&!-0%!0%37-0!%55%,-'!

45!"#$%&,%*-%&'a!&%;#,%;!$&(,%'!54&!,(+3&%--%'D!37,4047D!3*;!$&%',&($-(4*!;&#+'J!!X(*377<D!5#-#&%!

&%'%3&,0!'04#7;!%=32(*%!-0%!%55%,-!45!4-0%&!?(+!?4=!&%-3(7%&'!4*!?4;<!]%(+0-J!!X4&!(*'-3*,%D!

/3&+%-!,3-%&'!-4!3!'42%]03-!24&%!3557#%*-!,7(%*-%7%!-03*!63723&-D!3*;!(*,42%!3*;!'#?'-(-#-(4*!

%55%,-'!54&!544;!,4#7;!;(55%&!3,&4''!-0%!(*,42%!;('-&(?#-(4*J!!/0('!$3$%&!-0%&%54&%!$&4F(;%'!3!5(&'-!

'-%$!(*!#*;%&'-3*;(*+!-0%!0%37-0!,4*'%`#%*,%'!45!?(+!?4=!&%-3(7(*+D!?#-!2#,0!('!7%5-!-4!7%3&*!3?4#-!

-0%!'#?R%,-J

Page 28: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KO!!

References!

Z*;%&'4*D!9(,03%7!eJ!3*;!B3F(;!ZJ!93-'3J!!KQQOJ!!Z&%![%'-3#&3*-'![%377<!"#$%&'()(*+!Z2%&(,3.!!!64&\(*+!I3$%&D!E*(F%&'(-<!45!@37(54&*(38:%&\%7%<!3*;!G4&-0]%'-%&*!E*(F%&'(-<J !:3'(4-('D!IJIJ!3*;!e(*4D!9J!^KQQK_!X44;!1*'#55(,(%*,<!3*;!I&%F37%*,%!45!>F%&]%(+0-!324*+!Z;#7-!642%*J!Nutrition Insights 26D!E"BZ!@%*-%&!54&!G#-&(-(4*!I47(,<!3*;!I&424-(4*J!!:3'\%&D!C2%\J!!KQQN3J!!d4?!@&%3-(4*!4&!B%'-&#,-(4*.!e3?4&893&\%-!C55%,-'!45!637893&-!!C=$3*'(4*J!!Review of Economics and Statistics!YO^M_TMOP8MYUJ!!:3'\%&D!C2%\J!!KQQN?J!!"%77(*+!3!@0%3$%&!94#'%-&3$T!637893&-a'!C55%,-!4*![%-3(7!$&(,%'J!!!Journal of Urban Economics!NY^K_TKQU8KKVJ!!:3'\%&D!C2%\J!!KQQLJ!!60%*!H44;!1*'-&#2%*-'!H4!:3;T!Z![%$7<!-4!G%]#23&\D!t03*+D!3*;!!@(,,3&%773J!!E*(F%&'(-<!45!9(''4#&(!B%$3&-2%*-!45!C,4*42(,'!64&\(*+!I3$%&!QO8QLJ!!:3'\%&D!C2%\J!!KQQOJ!!/0%!@3#'%'!3*;!@4*'%`#%*,%'!45!637893&-a'!H&4]-0J!!Journal of

Economic Perspectives!KM^U_TMOO8MVYJ!!:3'\%&D!C2%\!3*;!9(,03%7!G4%7J!!KQQOJ!!/0%!CF47F(*+!X44;!@03(*T!@42$%-(-(F%!C55%,-'!45!!637893&-a'!C*-&<!(*-4!-0%!"#$%&23&\%-!1*;#'-&<J!!64&\(*+!I3$%&D!E*(F%&'(-<!45!9(''4#&(!3*;!!E*(F%&'(-<!45!@37(54&*(38"3*!B(%+4J!!:03--3,03&<3D!d3<!3*;!G%%&3R!"44;J!!KQQNJ!!f%37-0!1*'#&3*,%!3*;!-0%!>?%'(-<!C=-%&*37(-<J!!G3-(4*37!:#&%3#!45!C,4*42(,![%'%3&,0D!64&\(*+!I3$%&!MMNKVJ!!@3&;%*D!Z&-!3*;!@03&7%'!@4#&-%23*,0%J!!KQQVJ!!637893&-D!e%('#&%D!3*;!@#7-#&%J!!Contemporary

Economic Policy KO^P_TPNQ8PLMJ!!@3&;%*D!Z&-D!@03&7%'!@4#&-%23*,0%D!3*;!d%&%2<!9%(*%&'J!!KQQV3J!!B4%'!637893&-![%;#,%!"4,(37!@3$(-37.!!Public Choice!MUYTMQV8MULJ!!@3&;%*D!Z&-D!@03&7%'!@4#&-%23*,0%D!3*;!d%&%2<!9%(*%&'J!!KQQV?J!!I3(*-(*+!-0%!/4]*![%;.!!637893&-!3*;!g37#%'J!!Business and Politics!MM^K_!3&-(,7%!NJ!!@3]7%<D!dJ!!MVVVJ!![3-(4*37!Z;;(,-(4*D!-0%!@4*'#2$-(4*!45!@374&(%'D!3*;!:4;<!6%(+0-J!!I0B!!B(''%&-3-(4*D!E*(F%&'(-<!45!@0(,3+4J!!@%*-%&'!54&!B('%3'%!@4*-&47!3*;!I&%F%*-(4*J!!KQQVJ!!C'-(23-%;!@4#*-<8e%F%7!I&%F37%*,%!45!B(3?%-%'!3*;!>?%'(-<qKQQOJ!!Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report!NY^PN_TMKNV8MKLUJ!!@04#!"JD!H&4''23*!9JD!3*;!"355%&!fJD!KQQPJ!!Z*!%,4*42(,!3*37<'('!45!3;#7-!4?%'(-<T![%'#7-'!!5&42!-0%!:%03F(4&37![('\!X3,-4&!"#&F%(773*,%!"<'-%2J!!Journal of Health Economics!KUT!NLN8!NYOJ!!

Page 29: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KY!!

@04#!"JD!H&4''23*!9JD!3*;!"355%&!fJD!KQQLJ!![%$7<!-4!d4*3-03*!H&#?%&!3*;!9(,03%7!X&3\%'J!!!Journal of Health Economics!KNT!UYV8UVUJ!!@4#&-%23*,0%D!@03&7%'D!KQQVJ!![('(*+!@(+3&%--%!I&(,%'!3*;![('(*+!>?%'(-<T!@4(*,(;%*,%!4&!!E*(*-%*;%;!@4*'%`#%*,%.!!Journal of Health EconomicsD!54&-0,42(*+J!!@#-7%&D!H73%'%&D!3*;!"03$(&4D!KQQUJ!!60<!f3F%!Z2%&(,3*'!:%,42%!94&%!>?%'%.!!Journal of

Economic Perspectives.!!B&%]*4]'\(D!ZJ!3*;!"$%,-%&D!"JCJ!^KQQP_J!!I4F%&-<!3*;!4?%'(-<T!-0%!&47%!45!%*%&+<!;%*'(-<!3*;!!%*%&+<!,4'-'J!!American Journal of Clinical Nutrition OV^M_T!LlMLJ!!B#?%D!ZJD!/J!e%'-%&D!3*;!:J!C(;7(*!^KQQO_J!!X(&2!C*-&<!3*;!63+%'T!12$3,-!45!637893&-!H&4]-0!4*!C3&*(*+'!/0&4#+04#-!-0%![%-3(7!"%,-4&J!!1*'-(-#-%!45!1*;#'-&(37![%73-(4*'!64&\(*+!I3$%&!G4J!!((&]$'8MKL8QNJ!!B#**D![(,03&;D!KQQYJ!!>?%'(-<!3*;!-0%!ZF3(73?(7(-<!45!X3'-8544;T!3*!(*'-&#2%*-37!F3&(3?7%'!Z$$&43,0J!!64&\(*+!$3$%&D!E*(F%&('-<!45!6(',4*'(*893;('4*J!!C(;D!d%3*D!f%*&%<!HJ!>F%&23*D!B(%+4!I#+3D!3*;!93--0%]!ZJ!/#&*%&J!!KQQYJ!!X3-!@(-<T!!u#%'-(4*(*+!-0%![%73-(4*'0($!:%-]%%*!E&?3*!"$&3]7!3*;!>?%'(-<J!!Journal of Urban Economics!!LU^K_TUYN8PQPJ!!C](*+![D!",02(;!/D!c(77(*+']4&-0![D!t74-!ZD![3#;%*?#'0!"J!!KQQUJ!![%73-(4*'0($!:%-]%%*!!E&?3*!"$&3]7!3*;!I0<'(,37!Z,-(F(-<D!>?%'(-<D!3*;!94&?(;(-<J!American Journal of Health

Promotion MY^M_TPOlNOJ!!X(*\%7'-%(*!CJD!1J!X(%?%7\4&*D!HJ!63*+J!!G3-(4*37!2%;(,37!'$%*;(*+!3--&(?#-3?7%!-4!4F%&]%(+0-!!3*;!4?%'(-<T!f4]!2#,0D!3*;!]04a'!$3<(*+.!!Health AffairsD!6%?!C=,7#'(F%'T!6KMV86KKLJ!!X('023*D!@03&7%'J!!KQQLJ!!The Walmart EffectJ!!G%]!v4&\T!I%*+#(*!I&%''J!!X7%+37D!cJD!9J!@3&&477D![J!c#,)23&'\(D!3*;!@J!d40*'4*J!!MVVYJ!!>F%&]%(+0-!3*;!>?%'(-<!(*!-0%!E*(-%;!"-3-%'T!I&%F37%*,%!3*;!/&%*;'D!MVLQ8MVVPJ!!International Journal of ObesityD!KK^M_T!UV8POJ!!X7%+37!cJD!:J!H&3#?3&;D!BJ!6(77(32'4*D!3*;!9J!H3(7J!!KQQNJ!!C=,%''!;%3-0'!3''4,(3-%;!](-0!!#*;%&]%(+0-D!4F%&]%(+0-D!3*;!4?%'(-<J!!Journal of the American Medical Association!KVUT!MYLM8!MYLOJ!!X&3*\!eJD!Z*;&%'%*!9JD!3*;!",02(;!/J!!KQQPJ!!>?%'(-<![%73-(4*'0($'!](-0!@422#*(-<!B%'(+*D!!I0<'(,37!Z,-(F(-<D!3*;!/(2%!"$%*-!(*!@3&'J!!American Journal of Preventive Medicine!!KO^K_TYOJVLJ!!H%7?3,0!dJD!@7(,\!dJD!3*;!"-&3-23**!/JD!KQQOJ!!@0%3$!B4*#-'!3*;!C=$%*'(F%!:&4,,47(T!/0%!C55%,-!!45![%73-(F%!I&(,%'!4*!>?%'(-<J!!X74&(;3!"-3-%!E*(F%&'(-<!@477%+%!45!e3]D!I#?7(,!e3]![%'%3&,0!!

Page 30: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

KV!!

I3$%&!wKLMJ!!!H(7%'8@4&-(D!:(77(%!3*;![4?%&-!dJ!B4*4F3*J!!KQQUJ!![%73-(F%!1*57#%*,%'!45!1*;(F(;#37D!"4,(37!!C*F(&4*2%*-37D!3*;!I0<'(,37!C*F(&4*2%*-37!@4&&%73-%'!45!637\(*+.!!American Journal of Public

Health!VUT!MNYU8MNYVJ!!!H74?37!1*'(+0-J!!KQQOJ!!/0%!I&(,%!12$3,-!45!637893&-T!Z*!E$;3-%!/0&4#+0!KQQLJ!!ZF3(73?7%!!0--$Tmm]]]J+74?37(*'(+0-J,42m9#7-(@7(%*-"-#;<m9#7-(@7(%*-"-#;<B%-3(7KPUYJ0-2J!!!!H4%-)D!"-%$03*!3*;!Z*(7![#$3'(*+03D!KQQLJ!!637893&-!3*;!"4,(37!@3$(-37J!!American Journal of

Agricultural EconomicsD!Z2%&(,3*!Z+&(,#7-#&37!C,4*42(,'!Z''4,(3-(4*D!F47J!YY^N_D!$3+%'!MUQP8!MUMQ!!H4%-)D!"-%$03*!3*;!f%23!"]32(*3-03*D!KQQLJ!!637893&-!3*;!@4#*-<86(;%!I4F%&-<J!!Social

Science Quarterly!YO^K_T!KMM8KKLJ!!H&#?%&D!d4*3-03*!3*;!X&3\%'D!9(,03%7D!KQQLJ!!B4%'!5377(*+!'24\(*+!7%3;!-4!&('(*+!4?%'(-<.!!Journal of Health Economics!KNT!MYU8MYOJ!!f3#'23*D!d%&&<!3*;!C$0&3(2!e%(?-3+J!!KQQPJ!!@I1!:(3'!5&42!"#$%&,%*-%&'T!B4%'!-0%!:e"!\*4]!!-03-!637893&-!C=('-'.i!!G:C[!64&\(*+!I3$%&!MQOMKJ!!f3#'23*D!d%&&<!3*;!C$0&3(2!e%(?-3+J!!KQQNJ!!@4*'#2%&!:%*%5(-'!X&42!1*,&%3'%;!@42$%-(-(4*!(*!!"04$$(*+!>#-7%-'T!9%3'#&(*+!-0%!C55%,-!45!637893&-J!!G:C[!64&\(*+!I3$%&!MMYQVJ!!f(,\'D!9(,03%7!dJ!!KQQOJ!!d4?!/#&*4F%&!3*;!63+%'!(*!-0%![%-3(7!"%,-4&T!/0%!1*57#%*,%!45!!63723&-J!!Journal of Private Enterprise!KK^K_TMUO8MNVJ!!f472%'D!/0423'!dJ!!KQQYJ!!/0%!B(55#'(4*!45!637893&-!3*;!C,4*42(%'!45!B%*'(-<J!G:C[!!64&\(*+!I3$%&!]MUOYUJ!!c3&R3*%*D!B3F(;J!!KQQLJ!!/0%!63723&-!C55%,-!3*;!-0%!G%]!X3,%!45!@3$(-37('2T!e3?4&!93&\%-!3*;!!@422#*(-<!C55%,-'!45!-0%!9%+3&%-3(7%&D!(*!G%7'4*!e(,0-%*'-%(*D!%;J!Wal-Mart: The Face of

Twenty-First Century CapitalismJ!!G%]!v4&\T!/0%!G%]!I&%''D!$$J!MPU8MLKJ!!e3\;3]3773D!B3&(#'!3*;!/423'!I0(7($'4*J!!KQQKJ!!/0%!H&4]-0!45!>?%'(-<!3*;!/%,0*474+(,37!!@03*+%T!Z!/0%4&%-(,37!3*;!C2$(&(,37!1*F%'-(+3-(4*J!!G:C[!64&\(*+!I3$%&!YVLNJ!!e3\;3]3773D!B3&(#'D!/423'!I0(7($'4*D!3*;!d3<!:03--3,03&<3J!!KQQNJ!!6%753&%8C*03*,(*+!/%,0*474+(,37!@03*+%!3*;!-0%!H&4]-0!45!>?%'(-<J!!Z2%&(,3*!C,4*42(,![%F(%]!I3$%&'!3*;!I&4,%%;(*+'!VN^K_TKNU8KNOJ!!!e4&;D!dJ!B%**('J!!KQQLJ!!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&!93&\%-!"03&%!45!H&4,%&<![%-3(7(*+!(*!EJ"J!!9%-&4$47(-3*!Z&%3'D!(*!"-3*7%<!BJ!:&#**!^%;J_D!Walmart World: The World's Biggest

Corporation in the Global Economy J!!>=54&;T![4#-7%;+%D!$$J!NN8LKJ!!

Page 31: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UQ!!

93+&3?(D!XJD!vJ!@0#*+D!"J!@03D!"J!v3*+J!!MVVMJ!!The Economics of Household ConsumptionJ!!G%]!v4&\T!I&3%+%&!I3$%&?3,\J!!!!G3-(4*37!@%*-%&!45!f%37-0!"-3-('-(,'J!!KQQYJ!!hI&%F37%*,%!45!4F%&]%(+0-D!4?%'(-<!3*;!%=-&%2%!4?%'(-<!324*+!3;#7-'T!E*(-%;!"-3-%'D!-&%*;'!MVOL8YQ!-0&4#+0!KQQN8KQQLJi!!ZF3(73?7%!0--$Tmm]]]J,;,J+4Fm*,0'm;3-3m0%'-3-m4F%&]%(+0-m4F%&]%(+0-n3;#7-J$;5J!!G%#23&\D!BJD!dJ!t03*+D!3*;!"J!@(,,3&%773J!!KQQYJ!!/0%!C55%,-'!45!637893&-!4*!e4,37!e3?4&!!93&\%-'J!!Journal of Urban Economics!LU^K_T!PQN8PUQJ!!G4**%23\%&D!dJD!CJ!X(*\%7'-%(*D!9J!C*+%7%*D!/J!f4%&+%&D!9J!X3&&%77<J!!KQQYJ!!f3F%!C554&-'!-4!![%;#,%!"24\(*+![%377<!@4*-&(?#-%;!-4!-0%!>?%'(-<!C$(;%2(,.!!Economic InquiryD!54&-0,42(*+J!!!>+;%*D!@JD!9J!@3&&477D!eJ!@#&-(*D!9J!9,B4]%77D!@J!/3?3\D!cJ!X%7+37J!!I&%F37%*,%!45!!>F%&]%(+0-!3*;!>?%'(-<!(*!-0%!E*(F%;!"-3-%'D!MVVV8KQQPJ!!Journal of the American Medical

AssociationD!KVND!KQQLD!MNPV8NNJ!!I0(7($'4*D!/J!3*;![J!I4'*%&J!!KQQUJ!!/0%!e4*+![#*!H&4]-0!45!>?%'(-<!3'!3!X#*,-(4*!45!!/%,0*474+(,37!@03*+%J!!Perspectives in Biology and Medicine!PL^U_T"YO8"MQYJ!!I73*-(*+3D!Z*;&%]!dJ!3*;!"-%$03*(%!:%&*%77J!!KQQOJ!!/0%!Z''4,(3-(4*!:%-]%%*!E&?3*!"$&3]7!3*;!!>?%'(-<T!1'!(-!3!/]4863<!"-&%%-.!!Journal of Regional Science!PO^N_TYNO8YOVJ!![3**%<D!@JcJ!3*;!9,G323&3D!IJCJ!KQQKJ!!B4!0%37-0(%&!;(%-'!,4'-!24&%.!64&\(*+!I3$%&!QK8KKD!B%$3&-2%*-!45!Z$$7(%;!C,4*42(,'!3*;!93*3+%2%*-D!@4&*%77!E*(F%&'(-<J!![3'03;!1JD!H&4''23*!9JD!@04#!"JD!KQQLJ!x/0%!"#$%&!"()%!45!Z2%&(,3T!Z*!C,4*42(,!C'-(23-(4*!!45!:4;<!93''!1*;%=!3*;!>?%'(-<!(*!Z;#7-'Jx!Eastern Economic Journal!UK^M_T!MUU8MPYJ!![4'(*D!>;%7(3J!!KQQYJ!!/0%!C,4*42(,!@3#'%'!45!>?%'(-<T!Z!"#&F%<J!!Journal of Economic

Surveys!KK^P_TLMO8LPOJ!![#02D!@0&('-4$0%&J!!KQQQJ!!Z&%![%,%''(4*'!H44;!X4&!v4#&!f%37-0.!!Quarterly Journal of

EconomicsD!g47J!MMND!G4J!KD!LMO8LNQJ!![#02D!@0&('-4$0%&J!!KQQNJ!!f%37-0<!e(F(*+!(*!f3&;!/(2%'D!Journal of Health EconomicsD!!KP^K_D!93&,0!KQQND!UPM8LUJ!!"3-(3D!d%''(%D!d4'%$0!H373*\4D!3*;!Z**3!93&(3!"(%+38[()D!KQQPJ!!C3-(*+!3-!X3'-8544;![%'-3#&3*-'!!('!Z''4,(3-%;!](-0!B(%-3&<!1*-3\%D!B%24+&3$0(,D!I'<,04'4,(37!3*;!:%03F(4#&37!X3,-4&'!324*+!!Z5&(,3*!Z2%&(,3*'!(*!G4&-0!@3&47(*3J!!Public Health Nutrition!OTMQYV8MQVLJ!!",0355%&D!93&\D!KQQNJ!!y/1g[CHKT!"-3-3!24;#7%!-4!$%&54&2!%=-%*;%;!1gmK"e"D!H99!3*;!Z@mfZ@D!e19e!3*;!\8,73''!&%+&%''(4*!54&!$3*%7!;3-3!24;%7'J!!ZF3(73?7%!0--$Tmm(;%3'J&%$%,J4&+m,m?4,m?4,4;%m'PNLNQMJ0-27J!!

Page 32: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UM!!

"4?%7D![#''%77!3*;!Z*;&%3!B%3*D!KQQYJ!!f3'!637893&-!:#&(%;!942!3*;!I4$.T!/0%!12$3,-!45!!637893&-!4*!"%75!C2$74<2%*-!3*;!"2377!C'-3?7('02%*-'!(*!-0%!E*(-%;!"-3-%'!!Economic

Inquiry!PL^P_T!LOL8LVNJ!!!"-&#2D![JD!KQQKJ!!/0%!C55%,-'!45!>?%'(-<D!"24\(*+D!3*;!B&(*\(*+!4*!9%;(,37!I&4?7%2'!3*;!!@4'-'J!!f%37-0!Z553(&'!KMT!KPN8NUJ!!EJ"J!B%$3&-2%*-!45!f%37-0!3*;!f#23*!"%&F(,%'D!KQQMJ!!/0%!'#&+%4*!+%*%&37a'!,377!-4!3,-(4*!-4!!$&%F%*-!3*;!;%,&%3'%!4F%&]%(+0-!3*;!4?%'(-<J!

Page 33: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UK!!

Figure 1 – Changes over Time in Number of Walmart Supercenters and the Obesity Rate!

!G4-%'T!>?%'(-<!&3-%'!3&%!5&42!X7%+37!%-!37J!^MVVY_D!>+;%*!%-!37J!^KQQL_D!3*;!G3-(4*37!@%*-%&!54&!f%37-0!"-3-('-(,'!^KQQY_J!!/4-37!*#2?%&'!45!'-4&%'!(*!-0%!E*(-%;!"-3-%'!3&%!,42$#-%;!#'(*+!4#&!;3-3J!! !

!

!"!#

!"$

!"$#

!"%

!"%#

!"&

!"&#

!"'

!

#!!

$!!!

$#!!

%!!!

%#!!

$()! $()& $()* $()( $((% $((# $(() %!!$ %!!'

!

"

#

$

%

&

'

(

)

&

#

*

&

+

,

#

$

%

-

.

*

/#),

+,-.,/0!1234/54604/7 8947:0;!<,04

Page 34: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UU!!

Figure 2—Walmart Supercenters, 1990

Page 35: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UP!!

Figure 3—Walmart Supercenters, 1993

Page 36: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UN!!

Figure 4—Walmart Supercenters, 1994

Page 37: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UL!!

Figure 5—Walmart Supercenters, 1995

Page 38: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UO!!

Figure 6—Walmart Supercenters, 1998

Page 39: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UY!!

Figure 7—Walmart Supercenters, 2000

Page 40: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

UV!!

Figure 8—Walmart Supercenters, 2003

Page 41: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PQ!!

Figure 9—Walmart Supercenters, 2005

Page 42: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PM!!

Figure 10—Walmart Supercenters, July 2009

!! !

Page 43: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PK!!

Table 1 – Theoretical Effects of Healthy, Unhealthy, and Restaurant Food Prices on

Healthy, Unhealthy, and Restaurant Food Consumption

I&(,%!@03*+%! X44;!/<$%! "#?'-(-#-(4*!C55%,- 1*,42%!C55%,-! /4-37!C55%,-!

If!"! f! #! #! #!

If!"! E! "! .! .!

If!"! [! "! #! .!

IE!"! f! "! #! .!

IE!"! E! #! .! .!

IE!"! [! "! #! .!

I[!"! f! "! #! .!

I[!"! E! "! .! .!

I[!"! [! #! #! #!

Page 44: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PU!!

Table 2 – Summary Statistics

! g3&(3?7%!G32%! B%',&($-(4*! 9%3*!^"-;J!B%FJ_!

:[X""!F3&(3?7%'! :91! [%'$4*;%*-a'!?4;<!23''!(*;%=! KLJLMK!^NJUNY_!

>?%'%! M!(5!:91!UQ!3*;!Q!4-0%&]('%! QJKMK!^QJPQV_!

93&&(%;! M!(5!23&&(%;! QJLQQ!^QJPVQ_!

"42%!0(+0!',0447! M!(5!3--%*;%;!'42%!0(+0!',0447!?#-!;(;!*4-!+&3;#3-%! QJQON!^QJKLP_!

f(+0!',0447! M!(5!+&3;#3-%;!0(+0!',0447!?#-!4?-3(*%;!*4!5#&-0%&!%;#,3-(4*! QJUQY!^QJPLK_!

"42%!,477%+%! M!(5!3--%*;%;!'42%!,477%+%!?#-!;(;!*4-!+&3;#3-%! QJKOO!^QJPPY_!

@477%+%! M!(5!+&3;#3-%;!5&42!,477%+%! QJUQM!^QJPNV_!

X%237%! M!(5!5%237%! QJPVL!^QJNQQ_!

[3,%T!?73,\! M!(5!&3,%!('!?73,\! QJQVL!^QJKVN_!

[3,%T!4-0%&! M!(5!&3,%!('!*%(-0%&!]0(-%!*4&!?73,\! QJMLM!^QJULO_!

[%37!(*,42%! f4#'%047;!(*,42%!(*!KQQN!;4773&'! NKKUL!^KOVMY_!

Z+%! Z+%!(*!<%3&'! PPJOOP!^MLJYYY_!

93-,0%;!,4#*-<87%F%7!F3&(3?7%'!

"#$%&,%*-%&'! 63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'! QJUUU!^QJOVU_!

B('-3*,%! B('-3*,%!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%D!Z[! YNKJKPK!^UVKJNUK_!

B('-3*,%!5&42!XB@! B('-3*,%!5&42!*%3&%'-!63723&-!544;!;('-&(?#-(4*!,%*-%&! UUOJVLK!^UNUJVKM_!

B(',4#*-!'-4&%'! 63723&-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!%F%&!%*-%&%;!$%&!MQQDQQQ! QJVMY!^MJMPL_!

"32a'!@7#?'! "32'!@7#?'!$%&!MQQDQQQ! QJMVQ!^QJKLY_!

I4$#73-(4*! I4$#73-(4*!(*!#*(-'!45!MQQDQQQ! VJUOL!^MYJOLU_!

E*%2$74<2%*-! E*%2$74<2%*-!&3-%! NJMKL!^KJQMM_!

H&4,%&<! H&4,%&<!'-4&%'!$%&!MQQDQQQ!&%'(;%*-'! NNJLYV!^KOJMUV_!

H%*%&37! H%*%&37!2%&,03*;('%!'-4&%'!^?%'(;%'!"#$%&,%*-%&'_!$%&!MQQDQQQ! MPJLQM!^VJQYM_!G4-%T!>?'%&F3-(4*'!3&%!]%(+0-%;!#'(*+!-0%!:[X""!'32$7(*+!]%(+0-'J

Page 45: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PP!!

Table 3 – Effect of Distance-Year Interactions on Walmart Supercenters per 100,000

Residents (First Stage)!

! "#$%&,%*-%&'!

B('-3*,%AMVVO! 8QJQQQQO!^QJQQQQM_AAA!

B('-3*,%AMVVY! 8QJQQQMK!^QJQQQQK_AAA!

B('-3*,%AMVVV! 8QJQQQMV!^QJQQQQK_AAA!

B('-3*,%AKQQQ! 8QJQQQKV!^QJQQQQU_AAA!

B('-3*,%AKQQM! 8QJQQQUY!^QJQQQQU_AAA!

B('-3*,%AKQQK! 8QJQQQPL!^QJQQQQP_AAA!

B('-3*,%AKQQU! 8QJQQQNP!^QJQQQQP_AAA!

B('-3*,%AKQQP! 8QJQQQLU!^QJQQQQN_AAA!

B('-3*,%AKQQN! 8QJQQQOO!^QJQQQQL_AAA!

X!'-3-('-(,! KMJON!>?'%&F3-(4*'! MDLPPDQVP!

G4-%'T!"-3*;3&;!%&&4&'!3&%!(*!$3&%*-0%'%'J!!AAA!(*;(,3-%'!'-3-('-(,377<!'(+*(5(,3*-!3-!-0%!Mb!7%F%7W!AA!Nb!7%F%7W!A!MQb!7%F%7J!!"-3*;3&;!%&&4&'!3&%!0%-%&4'\%;3'-(,(-<8&4?#'-!3*;!,7#'-%&%;!?<!,4#*-<J!!@4#*-<!3*;!<%3&!5(=%;!%55%,-'!3&%!(*,7#;%;D!3'!]%77!3'!-0%!(*;(F(;#3787%F%7!,4*-&47!F3&(3?7%'J!!>?'%&F3-(4*'!3&%!]%(+0-%;!#'(*+!-0%!:[X""!'32$7(*+!]%(+0-'J!!!

Table 4 – Effects of Walmart Supercenters on BMI and P(Obese) (Second Stage)!

! :91! ! >?%'%!! >e"! 1g! ! >e"! 1g!

"#$%&,%*-%&'! QJQKV!^QJQMP_AA!

QJKNK!^QJQYL_AAA!

! QJQQM!^QJQQM_!

QJQKP!^QJQQN_AAA!

f3#'23*!-%'-! 8! QJKKU!^QJQYN_AAA!

! 8! ^QJQKK_!^QJQQN_AAA!

>F%&(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!-%'-! 8! QJMLO! ! 8! QJNOY!

>?'%&F3-(4*'! MDLPPDQVP! MDLPPDQVP! ! MDLPPDQVP! MDLPPDQVP!"%%!*4-%'!54&!/3?7%!UJ!

!!!!

Page 46: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PN!!

Table 5 – Robustness Checks!

! ! :91! >?%'%!

I3*%7!ZT!Z7-%&*3-%!5#*,-(4*37!54&2!54&!"#$%&,%*-%&!F3&(3?7%!!

"#$%&,%*-%&!F3&(3?7%!',37%;!?<!73*;!3&%3! QJLNM!^QJKUQ_AAA!

QJQLM!^QJQMO_AAA!

E*',37%;!"#$%&,%*-%&!F3&(3?7%! QJQVM!^QJQPU_AA!

QJQQV!^QJQQP_AA!

:(*3&<!"#$%&,%*-%&!F3&(3?7%! QJKPP!^QJKNM_!

QJQUP!^QJQMO_AA!

I3*%7!:T!Z7-%&*3-%!5#*,-(4*37!54&2!54&!(*'-&#2%*-'!

u#3;&3-(,!;('-3*,%! QJKNQ!^QJQYN_AAA!

QJQKU!^QJQQN_AAA!

MQ!;('-3*,%!&(*+'!^B#?%!%-!37J_! QJKUV!^QJQYM_AAA!

QJQKM!^QJQQN_AAA!

B('-3*,%!&(*+'!54&!MQQ!2(7%'!^G%#23&\!%-!37J_! QJKLO!^QJQOY_AAA!

QJQKU!^QJQQN_AAA

I3*%7!@T!"32a'!@7#?'!3*;!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!

@4*-&47!54&!"32a'!@7#?'! QJKLM!^QJQYO_AAA!

QJQKP!^QJQQN_AAA!

@4*-&47!54&!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'! QJKLU!^QJQVL_AAA!

QJQKN!^QJQQL_AAA!

B&4$!(5!"32a'!@7#?!%*-&<!^*kMDUOMDQLY_! QJUYN!^QJQYU_AAA!

QJQKV!^QJQQL_AAA!

B&4$!(5!;(',4#*-!'-4&%!%*-&<!^*kMDKPODOUQ_! QJPQN!^QJMKV_AAA!

QJQUU!^QJQQV_AAA!

I3*%7!BT!Z;;(-(4*37!&4?#'-*%''!,0%,\'!

I4$#73-(4*!;%*'(-<A<%3&! QJKYL!^QJMQM_AAA!

QJQKU!^QJQQO_AAA!

E*%2$74<2%*-!&3-%A<%3&! QJKYQ!^QJQYM_AAA!

QJQKL!^QJQQN_AAA!

H&4,%&<!'-4&%'A<%3&! QJKMV!^QJQYV_AA!

QJQKU!^QJQQL_AAA!

H%*%&37!2%&,03*;('%!'-4&%'A<%3&! QJKQY!^QJMQU_AA!

QJQMY!^QJQQO_AAA!

B&4$!,74'%'-!MQb!45!,4#*-(%'!^*kMDNMQDQYM_!! QJKKP!^QJQVN_AAA!

QJQKU!^QJQQL_AAA!

B&4$!5#&-0%'-!MQb!45!,4#*-(%'!^*kMDKQNDNOY_! QJUPO!^QJMNL_AA!

QJQUU!^QJQMM_AAA!

B&4$!(5!$4$#73-(4*zMDQQQDQQQ!^*kMDPVVDPUU_! QJKOY!^QJQYU_AAA!

QJQKN!^QJQQL_AAA!

! [(*+8'$%,(5(,!-&%*;'! QJKKY!^QJMYU_!

QJQUP!^QJQMP_AA!

! @%*'#'8;(F('(4*A<%3&! QJUKY!^QJMPM_AA!

QJQKV!^QJQQY_AAA!

! B('-3*,%!5&42!XB@! QJKLV!^QJMNQ_A!

QJQMP!^QJQQV_!

! B('-3*,%'!5&42!:%*-4*F(77%!3*;!XB@! QJKVY!^QJQVN_AAA!oQJKUPp!

QJQKK!^QJQQL_AAA!oQJNOKp!

G4-%'T!"32$7%!'()%!('!MDLPPDQVP!#*7%''!4-0%&]('%!(*;(,3-%;J!!I8F37#%!5&42!-0%!4F%&(;%*-(5(,3-(4*!-%'-!('!(*!?&3,\%-'J!!"%%!4-0%&!*4-%'!54&!/3?7%!KJ!!!

Page 47: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PL!!

Table 6 – Effects of Walmart Supercenters on BMI and P(Obese) for Subsamples

! ! :91! I^>?%'%_!

H%*;%&! 642%*! QJUUO!^QJMQO_AAA!

QJQMV!^QJQQO_AAA!

9%*! QJMVL!^QJMMN_A!

QJQKV!^QJQQY_AAA!

1*,42%T!93&&(%;! e4]%'-!KNb! QJUVM!^QJMVQ_AA!

QJQKQ!^QJQMN_!

9(;;7%!NQb! QJKYK!^QJMUO_AA!

QJQMO!^QJQMK_!

f(+0%'-!KNb! QJKMM!^QJMPP_!

QJQML!^QJQMK_!

1*,42%T!"(*+7%! e4]%'-!KNb! QJMKN!^QJKUM_!

QJQKL!^QJQMN_A!

! 9(;;7%!NQb!! QJMYY!^QJMYN_!

QJQKO!^QJQMN_A!

! f(+0%'-!KNb! QJKQO!^QJKLK_!

QJQMO!^QJQKM_!

I4$#73-(4*! "2377%'-!KNb! QJLVL!^QJUYP_A!

QJQLK!^QJQUM_AA!

9(;;7%!NQb! QJKOK!^QJMKM_AA!

QJQKK!^QJQQV_AA!

e3&+%'-!KNb! QJKMQ!^QJKNK_!

QJQKU!^QJQML_!

"%%!*4-%'!54&!/3?7%!UJ!! !

Page 48: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PO!!

Appendix A – Savings from Wal-Mart

1*!-0('!3$$%*;(=D!]%!$%&54&2!3!?3,\8458-0%8%*F%74$%!,37,#73-(4*!45!,4*'#2%&'a!'3F(*+'!

5&42!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'a!74]%&!$&(,%'J!!/0%'%!'3F(*+'!^SAV_!3&%!%`#37!-4!]03-!%=$%*;(-#&%'!

$%&!04#'%047;!4*!,4*'#2%&!+44;'!3*;!+&4,%&(%'!^-0%!+44;'!"#$%&,%*-%&'!'%77_!]4#7;!?%!(5!-0%&%!

]%&%!*4!"#$%&,%*-%&'!^C_!2(*#'!]03-!-0%<!3&%!+(F%*!-03-!-0%&%!3&%!"#$%&,%*-%&'!^CW_T!

<vw " \ y \z*****************************************************************#+;)!

CW!('!(;%*-(,37!-4!C!54&!-0%!$4&-(4*!45!-0%!$4$#73-(4*!-03-!7(F%'!(*!3&%3'!](-0!*4!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!

I%4$7%!]04!7(F%!(*!3&%3'!](-0!3-!7%3'-!4*%!"#$%&,%*-%&!,3*!5#&-0%&!?%!;(F(;%;!(*-4!-04'%!]04!'04$!

-0%&%!3*;!-04'%!]04!;4!*4-J!!/04'%!]04!;4!*4-!'04$!3-!63723&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!'-(77!53,%!74]%&!

$&(,%'!(5!63723&-!355%,-'!,42$%-(-4&'a!$&(,%'J!!I%4$7%!]04!;4!'04$!3-!63723&-!%=$%&(%*,%!-0('!

&%;#,-(4*D!$7#'!3*!3;;(-(4*37!4*%!;#%!-4!63723&-a'!$&(,%!3;F3*-3+%!4F%&!,42$%-(-4&'!-03-!&%23(*'!

%F%*!35-%&!,42$%-(-4&'!3;R#'-!-0%(&!$&(,%'J!!/0%&%54&%D!

\z " ,z{\#,zz)#+ y ,\I|)#+ y ,\Iz) A \#+ y ,zz)#+ y ,\I|)} A \#+ y ,z)***#+=)!

]0%&%!,z!('!-0%!$&4$4&-(4*!45!$%4$7%!]04!7(F%!(*!3!,4#*-<!](-0!3-!7%3'-!4*%!63723&-!

"#$%&,%*-%&D!,zz!('!-0%!$&4$4&-(4*!45!$%4$7%!7(F(*+!(*!3!,4#*-<!](-0!3!"#$%&,%*-%&!]04!'04$!

-0%&%D!,\I|!('!-0%!$%&,%*-3+%!&%;#,-(4*!(*!,42$%-(-4&!$&(,%'!35-%&!"#$%&,%*-%&!%*-&<!^;(F(;%;!?<!

MQQ_D!3*;!,\Iz!('!-0%!$%&,%*-3+%!'3F(*+'!5&42!'04$$(*+!3-!3!"#$%&,%*-%&!(*'-%3;!45!(-'!

,42$%-(-4&'J!!@42?(*(*+!^ML_!3*;!^MO_!<(%7;'!

<vw " \ y ,z{\#,zz)#+ y ,\I|)#+ y ,\Iz) A \#+ y ,zz)#+ y ,\I|)} y \#+ y ,z)8***!

#+>)!

! 6%!$%&54&2!-0%!,37,#73-(4*!54&!KQQK!?%,3#'%!%'-(23-%'!54&!377!-0%!$3&32%-%&'!3&%!

3F3(73?7%!(*!-03-!<%3&J!!X4&!CD!]%!5(&'-!,42$#-%!-4-37!%=$%*;(-#&%'!4*!-0%!-<$%'!45!+44;'!

"#$%&,%*-%&'!'%77!#'(*+!;3-3!5&42!-0%!KQQK!@%*'#'!45![%-3(7!/&3;%J!!6%!,4*'(;%&!"#$%&,%*-%&'!-4!

Page 49: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PY!!

'%77!+44;'!(*!-0%!54774](*+!,3-%+4&(%'T!%7%,-&4*(,'!3*;!3$$7(3*,%'W!73]*!3*;!+3&;%*W!544;!3*;!

?%F%&3+%!^*4-!,4#*-(*+!&%'-3#&3*-'!4&!?3&'_W!0%37-0!3*;!$%&'4*37!,3&%W!,74-0(*+!3*;!,74-0(*+!

3,,%''4&<W!'$4&-(*+!+44;'D!04??<!3*;!2#'(,37!(*'-&#2%*-W!?44\D!$%&(4;(,37D!3*;!2#'(,W!+%*%&37!

2%&,03*;('%W!3*;!455(,%!'#$$7(%'!3*;!+(5-'J!!C=$%*;(-#&%'!(*!-0%'%!,3-%+4&(%'!-4-37%;!

3$$&4=(23-%7<!jMJPOP!-&(77(4*D!4&!MPb!45!KQQKa'!HBIJKO!!C!('!%`#37!-4!-0('!*#2?%&!;(F(;%;!?<!-0%!

*#2?%&!45!04#'%047;'!(*!-0%!EJ"J!(*!KQQK!3,,4&;(*+!-4!-0%!EJ"J!@%*'#'!:#&%3#D!MQVJKVO!2(77(4*J!!

C!('!-0%&%54&%!jMUDPYYJ!

X4&!,zD!]%!#'%!-0%!$&4$4&-(4*!45!$%4$7%!5&42!-0%!KQQK!]3F%!45!-0%!:[X""!]04!7(F%!(*!3!

,4#*-<!](-0!3-!7%3'-!4*%!"#$%&,%*-%&D!]0(,0!('!QJUOJ!!X4&!,zzD!]%!?%+(*!?<!;(F(;(*+!63723&-!

"#$%&,%*-%&'a!;42%'-(,!'37%'!?<!jMJPOP!-&(77(4*!-4!;%-%&2(*%!(-'!3$$&4=(23-%!23&\%-!'03&%J!!!6%!

,42$#-%!3!23&\%-!'03&%!45!NJKbJKY!!/4!+%*%&3-%!3!23&\%-!'03&%!45!NJKb!54&!-0%!%*-(&%!EJ"JD!]0(,0!

(*,7#;%'!,4#*-(%'!](-0!*4!"#$%&,%*-%&'!]0%&%!-0%(&!23&\%-!'03&%!'04#7;!?%!QbD!-0%!23&\%-!'03&%!

2#'-!?%!MPJMb!(*!-0%!,4#*-(%'!-03-!;4!03F%!3-!7%3'-!4*%!"#$%&,%*-%&J!!6%!-0%&%54&%!3''(+*!

,zz "QJMPMJ!

X4&!-0%!$&(,%!&%;#,-(4*!$3&32%-%&'D!]%!;&3]!4*!%=('-(*+!7(-%&3-#&%J!!:3'\%&!3*;!G4%7!

^KQQO_!5(*;!-0%!%*-&<!45!4*%!4&!24&%!63723&-'!(*!3!,(-<!&%;#,%'!,42$%-(-4&'a!$&(,%'!?<!M8MJKbJ!!

6%!3''(+*!,\I| "!QJQMMD!-0%!2(;$4(*-!45!-0('!&3*+%J!!Z'!;(',#''%;!(*!"%,-(4*!KD!'-#;(%'!$73,%!

63723&-a'!$&(,%!3;F3*-3+%!4F%&!,42$%-(-4&'!3-!?%-]%%*!Yb!3*;!KOb!^f3#'23*!3*;!e%(?-3+D!

KQQP_J!!6%!-0%&%54&%!3''(+*!,\Iz!%`#37!-4!-0%!2(;$4(*-D!4&!QJMONJ!!C`#3-(4*!^MY_!?%,42%'!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KO!>5!,4#&'%D!637893&-!'%77'!'42%!+44;'!4#-'(;%!45!-0%'%!,3-%+4&(%'!3*;!'%77'!3!7(2(-%;!'%7%,-(4*!45!'42%!45!-0%!+44;'!](-0(*!-0%'%!,3-%+4&(%'D!'4!4#&!3$$&43,0!$&4F(;%'!4*7<!3!&4#+0!%'-(23-%J!!Z,,4&;(*+!-4!-0%!]%?!'(-%!45!-0%!"-J!e4#('!X%;%&37![%'%&F%!:3*\D!*42(*37!HBI!5&42!d#7<!MD!KQQK!]3'!jMQNKOJP!-&(77(4*J!!KY!63723&-a'!KQQK!;42%'-(,!'37%'!3-!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!3*;!"#$%&,%*-%&'!-4-37%;!jMUVJMUM!?(77(4*!3,,4&;(*+!-4!(-'!3**#37!&%$4&-D!3F3(73?7%!3-!0--$Tmm]3723&-'-4&%'J,42m9%;(3m1*F%'-4&'mKQQKn3**#37&%$4&-J$;5J!!6%!3$$&4=(23-%!-0%!'37%'!3-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!?<!2#7-($7<(*+!jMUVJMUM!?(77(4*!?<!-0%!$&4$4&-(4*!45!63723&-!'-4&%'!-03-!]%&%!"#$%&,%*-%&'D!]%(+0-%;!?<!-0%!3F%&3+%!'`#3&%!544-3+%!45!;(',4#*-!'-4&%'!3*;!"#$%&,%*-%&'J!!6%!4?-3(*!-0%!3F%&3+%!'`#3&%!544-3+%!5&42!0--$Tmm%*J](\($%;(3J4&+m](\(m637893&-J!!E7-(23-%7<D!]%!%'-(23-%!-4-37!'37%'!3-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!45!jOOJKVO!?(77(4*J!

Page 50: January 1, 2010 - Art Carden€¦ · Electronic copy available at: 1263316!! "#$%&’()(*+!"#$%&,%*-%&’.!!/0%!12$3,-!45!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&’!4*!:4;

PV!!

<vw " +12>> y 581={+12>> j #58+2+)#+ y 585++)#+ y 58+=9) A +12>> j #+ y 58+2+)#+

y 585++)} y +12>>#+ y 581=) " x+=;8;>8*************************************************************#+C)!

6%!-0%&%54&%!,4*,7#;%!-03-!637893&-!"#$%&,%*-%&'!'3F%;!04#'%047;'!jMOO!$%&!<%3&!(*!KQQKJ!


Recommended