JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE PRELIMINARY OZONE MODEL EVALUATION FOR THE DENVER KM BASE CASE RAMBOLL ENVIRON AND ALPINE GEOPHYSICS JANUARY 12, 2016 IWDW/WAQS TECHNICAL COMMITTEE MEETING FORT COLLINS, COLORADO 1 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE PRELIMINARY CAMx MAY-AUG KM MPE CONCLUSIONS CAMx ozone performance worst in May and best in July & August 2011 (June variable) o Mainly ozone underestimation during May and early June Peak observed ozone concentrations underestimated o For example, 104 RFNO on June 24 (model = 76 ppb) Fairly typical as average inputs (4 km meteorology and average emissions) are provided so model has difficulty in simulating extreme events Of key monitors, RFNO, NREL and FTCW reasonably good, CHAT worse performing Ozone model performance at top 10 modeled ozone days: Bias usually 10% and almost always 20% (CHAT worst performing) o FY ozone Design Value projection sensitivity analysis substituting poorly performing days may be warranted at some sites 2017 ozone Design Value projections using EPA default assumptions estimates exceedances at CHAT (77.6 ppb) and RFNO (76.0 ppb) o Ozone projections at CHAT based on several poor performing days, additional diagnsotc9 analysis performed to try to understand and improve ozone predictions at CHAT 2 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE DENVER 2017 OZONE SIP MODELING -- BACKGROUND Denver Metropolitan Area (DMA) and North Front Range (NFR) region fail to attain the March ppm (75 ppb) ozone NAAQS The DMA/NFR must prepare a State Implementation Plan (SIP) that demonstrates the area will attain the ozone NAAQS by 2017 The Denver Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC) is the lead agency for the Denver ozone SIP CDPHE/APCD also heavily involved Modeling conducted by contracting team of Ramboll Environ and Alpine Geophysics 3 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE OVERVIEW OF DENVER 2011B CAMx BASE CASE Use WAQS CAMx 2011b base case modeling data files from IWDW Episode: May-Aug 2011 Domains: o 36/12 km CONUS/WESTUS Boundary Conditions (BCs) for 36 km CONUS domain from MOZART Global Chemistry Model o 4 km Colorado Domain One-way grid nesting between 12 and 4 km domains CAMx 2011b 4 km inputs based on window of WAQS 4 km domain inputs Run CAMx for 4 km Colorado domain o Also set up CAMx for 36/12/4 km two-way grid nesting for source apportionment modeling in future 4 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE DENVER OZONE SIP MODELING UPDATED EMISSION Use WAQS 2011b emissions (mainly 2011 NEIv2) for all sources but on-road mobile sources o EPA 2011 mobile emissions did not use Colorado-specific fleet distribution or actual RVP and did not account for Denver Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) program Mobile sources based on MOVES2014 and SMOKE-MOVES using WRF Data o Standard SMOKE-MOVES for 4 km Colorado domain outside of NAA MOVES2014 EF look-up table using Colorado-specific fleet distribution, RVP and other parameters o In Denver Nonattainment Area (NAA) used link-based activity data from DRCOG and NFRMPO Grid link-based activity data to 4 km grids using OTIS Treat each 4 km grid as a pseudo county and run SMOKE-MOVES with hourly WRF meteorology Brand new approach for using Traffic Demand Model (TDM) link-level VMT and other data (e.g., start locations) to generate gridded hour-specific on-road mobile source emissions for PGM modeling 5 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE DENVER 2017 OZONE SIP MODELING PRELIMINARY MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION (MPE) Initially focus on ozone model performance within the DMA/NFR NAA o Rely on WAQS MPE for MPE of other species and MPE outside of NAA: PM, Speciated PM, visibility, deposition Numerous graphical displays of model performance as suggested in EPA guidance (EPA, 2007, 2014) Use historical EPA ozone performance goals (EPA, 1991) to help interpret MPE: o Bias 15% o Error 35% o Not Pass/Fail test, just another tool Overview of MPE across DMA/NFR NAA and MayAug 2011 modeling period Detailed MPE for 12 multiday day episodes o Includes 25 ozone exceedance days in NAA o Detailed MPE down to individual site Focused ozone MPE for 10 highest modeled DMAX8 ozone days at key sites These are the ozone values used in EPAs future year Design Value projection procedure (MATS) RFNO, NREL, CHAT and FTCW 6 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE DENVER OZONE SIP MODELING MONITORING NETWORK Monitoring network used in MPE Limited data available at four monitors west of Denver KENO, MTEV, GOLI, ELDO Limited NO and NO 2 data just monitors near downtown No VOC measurements Key ozone monitors with ozone DVCs: o CHAT = 80.7 ppb o RFNO = 80.3 ppb o NREL = 78.7 ppb o FTCW = 78.0 ppb 7 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE CONCLUSIONS OF DENVER OZONE MODEL EVALUATION Ozone model performance poor in May, best in July-August and end of June Observed highest ozone peaks underestimated o 2011 observed peak DMAX8 ozone of 104 ppb at RFNO on June 24 underestimated by model (76 ppb) Modeled uses average inputs (e.g., met/emiss) so will not capture extreme events Model performance for 10 highest modeled ozone days fairly good at most sites o Modeled data used to make 2017 ozone projections o Exception to this is Chatfield (CHAT) Cut-OffBiasError EPA Goal--15%35% Hourly O 3 None7.7%24.5% Hourly O 3 60 ppb-8.5%13.2% DMAX8 O 3 None5.2%12.8% DMAX8 O 3 60 ppb-3.6%8.9% 8 Summary of ozone Normalized Mean Bias and Error performance statistics for May- Aug 2011 across monitors in DMA/NFR NAA and comparison against EPAs historical Ozone Performance Goals JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE DENVER MODELING MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Ozone MPE using the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) o Scatter Plots and MPE Statistics Hourly and DMAX8 ozone With no and 60 ppb observed ozone cut-off o Spatial Plots of Site-Specific Bias, Error and Correlation o Time Series Plots o Soccer Plots Compares ozone bias and error with ozone performance goals (15%/35%) Also includes PM performance goals (30%/50%) and criteria (60%/75%) Special attention paid to how model is used to make future year ozone projections following EPA guidance (EPA, 2014) The top 10 modeled DMAX8 ozone days are used to develop Relative Response Factors (RRFs) for projecting current year ozone Design Values (DVC) to future year DVF = DVC x RRF So pay particular attention to DMAX8 ozone MPE at key sites for top 10 modeled days RFNO, CHAT, FTCW & NREL If performance on particular day poor, may want to eliminate that day and add next highest day 9 JANUARY 12, 2016 DENVER 2011 MPE TOP 20 HIGHEST MODELED DMAX8 OZONE DAYS AT RFNO Rocky Flats North Monitor (RFNO) o Ranked by 20 highest modeled DMAX8 days o 10 highest observed DMAX8 days in Yellow o Next highest 10 observed days in Blue Top 10 modeled DMAX days include 3 of top 10 observed and 6 of top 20 observed days o 6 of top 10 model high days Bias