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Tammy Patrick Senior Advisor to the Elections Team Preparing for Now (2020): Data & Tools January 14, 2020
Tammy PatrickSenior Advisor to the Elections Team
Preparing for Now (2020): Data & Tools January 14, 2020
When given options in voting voters move away from Tuesday, Election Day as demonstrated byCharles Stewart, MIT (what I have nick-named the “Snow Globe of Elections”).
0
1 0
101
1996
Election Day
Early
AK
AL
AR
AZCA CO
CTDCDE
FLGA
HIIAID
ILIN
KS
KYLAMAMDME
MI
MNMOMS
MT
NCNDNENHNJ
NMNV
NY
OHOK
OR
PARISC
SD
TN
TX
UTVAVT
WA
WIWV
WY
Source: Current Population Survey
1996
0
1 0
101
2000
Election Day
Early
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CTDC
DE
FLGA
HI
IA
IDILIN
KS
KYLAMAMDME
MI
MNMOMS
MT NCNDNENH
NJ
NM
NV
NYOHOK
OR
PARISCSD
TNTX
UTVA
VT
WA
WIWV
WY
Source: Current Population Survey
2000
0
1 0
101
2004
Election Day
Early
AK
AL
AR
AZCA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
ILIN
KS
KYLAMAMD
MEMI
MNMOMS
MT
NC
NDNE
NHNJ
NM
NV
NYOH
OK
OR
PARISC
SD
TN
TX
UTVA
VT
WA
WIWVWY
Source: Current Population Survey
2004
0
1 0
101
2008
Election Day
Early
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IAID
ILIN
KS
KY
LAMAMD
ME
MI
MNMOMS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NHNJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SCSD
TNTX
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WVWY
Source: Current Population Survey
2008
0
1 0
101
2012
Election Day
Early
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GAHI
IA
ID ILINKS
KY
LA
MA
MDME
MI
MNMOMS
MTNC
ND
NE
NHNJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SCSD
TNTX
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI WVWY
Source: Current Population Survey
2012
0
1 0
101
2016
Election Day
Early
AK
AL
ARAZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MAMD
MEMI MN
MOMS
MTNC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NMNV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TXUT
VA
VT
WA
WIWV
WY
Source: SPAE
2016
We saw a huge increase nationally from 2014 to 2018 midterms.New voters may only think that Election Day is their only option in voting.
Democracy Fund democracyfund.org 10
Democracy Fund democracyfund.org 11
Consider: How we translate this enthusiasm into
effectively cast ballots?Ensure that they know all their options?
(& Keep the lines moving…)
Resource Allocation Tools web.mit.edu/vtp/Cal Tech-MIT
The addition of a single check-in station negates the hour long wait at the
end of the day.
90 sec2 stations7 min wait
120 sec2 stations1 hr wait
120 sec3 stations5 min wait
Center for Technology in Civic Life Resource Allocation & Timing Toolshttps://electiontools.org/
CTCL
https://electiontools.org/
Center for Technology in Civic Life Resource Allocation & Timing Toolshttps://electiontools.org/
CTCL
https://electiontools.org/
https://web.uri.edu/urivotes/tools/
Univ of Rhode IslandURI Votes ProjectTools for analyzing & visualizing data
https://web.uri.edu/urivotes/tools/
United States Postal Service Informed VisibilityForecasting incoming volumes
https://about.usps.com/gov-services/election-mail/
USPS
https://about.usps.com/gov-services/election-mail/
Democracy Fund democracyfund.org 18
Consider: What policy/law changes have happened that
may impact your standard estimation formula?EDR? AVR?
Democracy Fund democracyfund.org 19
Consider: Are there now additional options for voters?
How will they know?No Excuse? Permanent VBM/VAH list?
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