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January 2012 Baird Industry Report

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RW Baird overview report on the health of uniform market. Reviews jobs data, key laundries and more.
17
The January BLS jobs report continued last month's momentum and is a positive for uniform rental stocks. Add/Stop employment (traditional uniform wearing-industries) gains remain strong (growth rates at a 5-year high) and consistent with prior mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s/2004-2006). While we recognize that the stocks are increasingly discounting stronger employment momentum (and call volume has picked up recently), we continue to view expectations as reasonably set, with estimates likely biased higher, at least near term. Payrolls positively surprise. January payrolls positively surprised, increasing by 243,000 (+257,000 private sector only), above the +155,000 consensus and lending credibility to last month's strong data which some critics had attributed to seasonal distortions. The YOY change in employment increased +1.5% (highest rate this cycle) with the unemployment rate ticking down to 8.3% (from 8.5%). While job growth was widespread, we note particular strength in professional and business services (+70,000), leisure and hospitality (+44,000), and (encouragingly) manufacturing (+50,000). Uniform-related employment quite strong. Baird's Add/Stop Employment Index specific to uniform rental-related employment maintained momentum, increasing by 86,000. The monthly gain is the second highest this cycle and consistent with prior mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s / 2004-2006). Stable organic growth is realized when the Baird index is in the 50-70k jobs range. In 2011, the average monthly gain was 56,000, consistent with the middle of this range. Over the past three months however, Add/Stop employment has averaged +84,000. Continue to recommend owning uniform stocks. Recent employment data remains supportive with Add/Stops slowly becoming a greater contributor to overall growth rates. We continue to view the uniform stocks positively, with conservatively set guidance providing a pathway to upwardly biased earnings revisions. That said, valuation has become more balanced with near-term alpha generation likely to be more modest than 2011's gains. G&K (Outperform): We continue to see opportunity through progress on management's turnaround strategy. We suggest investors focus on EBITDA margin expansion and long-term earnings power, supported by GKSR's cash flow and balance sheet. Cintas (Outperform): Recent performance has been strong, though more difficult comps are approaching. We still see opportunities across CTAS's business (particularly beyond garment rental) and cite likely upside to conservatively set guidance; recent stock performance suggests expectations are migrating higher, increasing risk, however. UniFirst (Outperform): UniFirst continues to execute above peers, suggesting share gains. Although rising merchandise costs have pressured earnings, we believe opportunities for balance sheet deployment provide a potential catalyst. INDUSTRY UPDATE Prices as of 2/2/12 Ticker Price Mkt Cap (mil) Rating Risk CTAS $37.33 $4,842 O A GKSR $33.45 $626 O A UNF $61.41 $1,201 O A Baird covered companies February 3, 2012 Baird Equity Research Business Services Facility Services Uniformed Employee Growth Rates at 6-Year High Andrew J. Wittmann, CFA [email protected] 414.298.1898 Justin P. Hauke [email protected] 314.445.6519 [ Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification ]
Transcript
Page 1: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

The January BLS jobs report continued last month's momentum and is a positive for

uniform rental stocks. Add/Stop employment (traditional uniform wearing-industries)

gains remain strong (growth rates at a 5-year high) and consistent with prior mid-cycle

recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s/2004-2006). While we recognize that the stocks are

increasingly discounting stronger employment momentum (and call volume has picked up

recently), we continue to view expectations as reasonably set, with estimates likely biased

higher, at least near term.

■ Payrolls positively surprise. January payrolls positively surprised, increasing by

243,000 (+257,000 private sector only), above the +155,000 consensus and lending

credibility to last month's strong data which some critics had attributed to seasonal

distortions. The YOY change in employment increased +1.5% (highest rate this cycle)

with the unemployment rate ticking down to 8.3% (from 8.5%). While job growth was

widespread, we note particular strength in professional and business services

(+70,000), leisure and hospitality (+44,000), and (encouragingly) manufacturing

(+50,000).

■ Uniform-related employment quite strong. Baird's Add/Stop Employment Index

specific to uniform rental-related employment maintained momentum, increasing by

86,000. The monthly gain is the second highest this cycle and consistent with prior

mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s / 2004-2006). Stable organic growth is

realized when the Baird index is in the 50-70k jobs range. In 2011, the average monthly

gain was 56,000, consistent with the middle of this range. Over the past three months

however, Add/Stop employment has averaged +84,000.

■ Continue to recommend owning uniform stocks. Recent employment data remains

supportive with Add/Stops slowly becoming a greater contributor to overall growth rates.

We continue to view the uniform stocks positively, with conservatively set guidance

providing a pathway to upwardly biased earnings revisions. That said, valuation has

become more balanced with near-term alpha generation likely to be more modest than

2011's gains.

■ G&K (Outperform): We continue to see opportunity through progress on

management's turnaround strategy. We suggest investors focus on EBITDA margin

expansion and long-term earnings power, supported by GKSR's cash flow and balance

sheet.

■ Cintas (Outperform): Recent performance has been strong, though more difficult

comps are approaching. We still see opportunities across CTAS's business (particularly

beyond garment rental) and cite likely upside to conservatively set guidance; recent

stock performance suggests expectations are migrating higher, increasing risk,

however.

■ UniFirst (Outperform): UniFirst continues to execute above peers, suggesting share

gains. Although rising merchandise costs have pressured earnings, we believe

opportunities for balance sheet deployment provide a potential catalyst.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

Prices as of 2/2/12

Ticker PriceMkt Cap

(mil)Rating Risk

CTAS $37.33 $4,842 O A

GKSR $33.45 $626 O A

UNF $61.41 $1,201 O A

Baird covered companies

February 3, 2012 Baird Equity ResearchBusiness Services

Facility ServicesUniformed Employee Growth Rates at 6-Year High

Andrew J. Wittmann, CFA

[email protected]

414.298.1898

Justin P. Hauke

[email protected]

314.445.6519

[Please refer to Appendix- Important Disclosuresand Analyst Certification]

Page 2: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

2

Details

Uniform Estimates Likely Biased Higher Following Strong EmploymentMomentum

The January BLS jobs report continued last month's momentum and is a positive for uniform rental

stocks. Add/Stop employment (traditional uniform wearing-industries) gains remain strong (indeed, YOY

growth rates are now at a 6-year high), with total employment growth consistent with prior mid-cycle

recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s/2004-2006). While we recognize that the stocks are increasingly

discounting stronger employment momentum, we continue to view expectations as reasonably set, with

estimates likely biased higher near term.

Our primary basis for recommendation at this point is upwardly biased estimates, continuing

recent trend (see below), as consensus expectations appear to underappreciate top-line

momentum.

We continue to recommend ownership of all three uniform companies despite strong recent stock

outperformance. Management guidance and Street consensus appears conservative across our list, in

our view, with estimates likely biased higher at least over the near-term. Indeed, this has been the

pattern of uniform stock performance throughout the recovery as estimates have been slow to adjust to

an improving labor market (we note, however, that the reverse phenomenon was also apparent on the

way down). The charts below demonstrate quarterly EPS outperformance versus consensus at CTAS,

GKSR, and UNF over the past 10 quarters.

Cintas Corp. Quarterly EPS vs. Consensus

Source: Company reports

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F1Q12 F2Q12

Consensus

Actual

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 3: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

3

G&K Services Quarterly EPS vs. Consensus

Source: Company reports

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F1Q12 F2Q12

Consensus

Actual

UniFirst Quarterly EPS vs. Consensus

Source: Company reports

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

F1Q09 F2Q09 F3Q09 F4Q09 F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F1Q12

Consensus

Actual

The uniform stocks were strong alpha generators in 2011 with this trend accelerating in recent months

(particularly given recent improvement in macro employment data and impressive operating results in

3Q-4Q). We believe stock performance has been driven largely by cyclical momentum (both revenue

and margins) and previously low expectations. Recently the “buy USA” trade has brought new interest to

uniform rental companies.

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 4: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

4

Uniform Stock Performance

Source: FactSet Research Systems

One-Month Percentage Price Change YTD Percentage Price Change

Three-Month Percentage Price Change Trailing 12 Months Percentage Price Change

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

S&P 500

Cintas

U niFirst

U niform Index

G&K Services

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

S&P 500

G &K Services

U niFirst

Uniform Index

Cintas

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

S&P 500

Cintas

UniFirst

Uniform Index

G&K Services

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

S&P 500

G &K Services

UniFirst

Uniform Index

C intas

The last several month's labor reports suggest greater confidence in recent momentum and should

provide a nice cyclical tailwind for all. That said, and while we previously highlighted valuation as forming

a component of our rating (particularly at GKSR, which had previously failed to meaningfully participate

in the recent rally), we now see upwardly revised estimates as the greatest catalyst for the group (versus

multiple expansion).

Indeed, the group is now trading at an average forward 12 month EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x and 15.7x

earnings. While we believe current multiples may reflect a more balanced view of valuation (near 5-year

historical average levels, see chart below), we see opportunity for upwardly revised estimates to allow

the group to grow into its current multiples, potentially offering additional alpha opportunities.

Uniform Industry Valuation

Price Price Target Rating

Company Ticker FTM AVG FTM AVG

Cintas CTAS $37.99 $38 O 8.2x 7.7x 16.4x 16.2x

G&K Services GKSR $34.41 $38 O 7.7x 7.3x 15.4x 15.9x

UniFirst UNF $62.16 $68 N 6.6x 5.7x 15.2x 13.0x

Average: 7.5x 6.9x 15.7x 15.0x

As of 02/03/2012

Source: FactSet Research Systems and Baird estimates

EV/EBITDA, ftm P/E

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 5: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

5

The January BLS Employment Report

January payrolls positively surprised, increasing by 243,000 (+257,000 private sector only), above the

+155,000 consensus and lending credibility to last month's strong data which some critics had attributed

to seasonal distortions. The YOY change in employment increased 1.5%, the highest this cycle, with the

unemployment rate ticking down to 8.3% (from 8.5%). While job growth was widespread, we note

particular strength in professional and business services (+70,000), leisure and hospitality (+44,000),

and (encouragingly) manufacturing (+50,000).

We note that this month's release also contained annual revisions to the BLS's establishment survey

data, resulting in modest revisions to seasonally adjusted data from January 2007 forward. The

benchmark revisions added a cumulative 165,000 jobs to the March 2011 reference benchmark

including 77,000 jobs related to adjustments to the BLS' firm birth/death model, used to estimate

employment at new and exiting small firms not captured by the survey. We also note that the BLS made

some minor adjustments to its industry classification system (now using NAICS 2012 classification

versus the previous NAICS 2007 classification) which also created minor adjustments to our Add/Stop

Index.

Net, we see these revisions as consistent with annual industry practice with the cumulative

effect minor but upwardly biased. Indeed, in thoroughly dissecting the data, we see the report as

broadly positive, with few (if any) distortions that suggest a degree of skepticism to the strength.

BLS Nonfarm Payrolls

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research

(1000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

BLS Nonfarm Payrolls 1-month change (000s), right

BLS Nonfarm Payrolls YOY Growth Rate, left

Forward-looking employment indicators were little changed. Total average weekly hours held constant at

34.5 hours as did wages (+$0.04 to $23.29). However, the rate of improvement in the private

employment diffusion index improved from a healthy 62.4 to 64.1, continuing recent momentum in

forward outlooks. We view the strong improvement in the employment diffusion index as an important

data point suggesting potential sustainability of recent hiring momentum.

While the U.S. employment recovery has been slow, the pace of gains has gradually improved (in fact,

the sequential rate of employment growth over the past two months has been similar to levels in the late

1990s and relatively strong when compared across all cycles). That said, the overall trajectory of

employment growth is still well below prior post-recession recovery gains. Indeed, the figure below

shows the growth in employment (indexed at the solid black line to cycle peak employment), which

demonstrates the pronounced sluggishness of the current "recovery" but also the fact that growth rates

have, at least, become more similar to the mid-2000s cycle (off of a lower base).

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 6: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

6

Nonfarm Payroll Growth (indexed at month of cyclical employment peak)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research

90

95

100

105

110

115

-26

-24

-22

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

Sep-48 Jul-53

Aug-57 Apr-60

Mar-70 Jul-74

Mar-80 Jul-81

Jun-90 Feb-01

Jan-08

Current Cycle

2000-2001 Cycle

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 7: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

7

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index Gains Remain Solidly Mid-Cycle

Baird's Add/Stop Employment Index specific to uniform rental-related employment maintained

momentum, increasing by 86,000, with revisions adding an additional 20,000 jobs in

November/December. The monthly gain is the second highest this cycle and consistent with prior

mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s / 2004-2006). Stable organic growth is realized when the

Baird index is in the 50-70k jobs range. In 2011, the average monthly gain in Add/Stop employment was

+56,000, consistent with the middle of this range. Over the past three months, Add/Stop employment

has averaged +84,000.

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (000s), right

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index YOY Growth Rate, left

Average = 65k Average = 54k

Cycle Average = 48k

2011 Average = 56k

3-Month Average = 84k

We continue to highlight the recent momentum in Add/Stop momentum over the past several months as

a critical dynamic to the data. Following a slowdown in employment in mid-2011, hiring appears to have

strongly recovered as we headed into the end of the year and now suggests evidence of stability. We

note that this factor also parallels the increasing role of Add/Stops as a contributor to overall organic

growth in 4Q11 at the uniform rental companies (a positive, as employee additions at existing accounts

typically carry higher incremental margins). Indeed, GKSR echoed this commentary on their F1Q12

earnings call earlier this week -- though, importantly, we note Add/Stops are yet to be the primary driver

of overall growth (new account gains, service additions and positive pricing are also playing a role).

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 8: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

8

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (000s), recent performance

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

More Bullish

Less Bullish

More Bullish?

We also note that the YOY growth rate in Add/Stop Index employment categories continues to outpace

the broader economy for the first time since late 2006/early 2007 (a phenomenon which has been

apparent throughout 2011, supporting alpha generation in the uniform rental stocks, in our opinion). As

we have highlighted, this has been a critical element of the data as uniform employment lagged broader

employment categories throughout the recovery until February 2011.

Total Non-Farm Employment vs. Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (YOY Change)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

r-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Se

p-0

7

No

v-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Se

p-0

8

No

v-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Se

p-0

9

No

v-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Se

p-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Se

p-1

1

No

v-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

BLS Total Non-Farm Employment

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index

Growth in Baird Add/Stop

Index employment

continues to outpace

total NFP employment

Most uniform verticals continue to posted positive growth. We also highlight that most uniform

verticals comprising our Add/Stop Index continues to post positive growth in January, suggesting gains

remain broad-based. Food Services led the way, but individual manufacturing components were also

important contributors. Previously (several months ago), trends had been more mixed. The figure below

shows the absolute job gains/losses within several of the primary uniform-wearing industries comprising

our Index over the last month.

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 9: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

9

Baird Add/Stop Employment Index Component Industries: 1-Month Employment Change (000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research

(5)

(1)

-

1

2

4

5

5

7

11

11

14

33

Repair and Maintenance

Truck Transportation

Specialty Trade Contractors

Wholesale Trade - Durable Goods

Gasoline Stations

Wholesale Trade - Nondurable Goods

Fabricated Metal Products

Chemicals

Food and Beverage Stores

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

Food Manufacturing

Machinery

Food Services and Drinking Places

1-month Employment Change (000s)

Add/Stop Employment historically a good predictor of uniform organic growth. Importantly we

also note that the YOY change in our Add/Stop Index has historically been well-correlated with uniform

rental organic growth rates, particularly at CTAS. The figure below demonstrates this relationship.

Continued momentum in employment could suggest positive bias to management guidance at all three

uniform companies.

CTAS Organic (Rental) Revenue Growth YOY vs. Baird Add/Stop Employment Index

Note: CTAS organic growth reflects interpolated calendar growth figures; 3Q11-4Q11 reflect Baird estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Company Reports and Baird Research

R² = 0.7286

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Add/Stop Index

CTAS Organic

Rental Revenue

More Positive Surprises in December Derivative Employment Data

Derivative employment data was somewhat more mixed this month, though overall consistent with an

improving labor market.

Challenger Layoff Report. Negatively, the Challenger Layoff Report suggested a strong surge in

planned layoffs in January, with 53,486 planned layoffs (mostly in retail and financial services)

increasing 38.9% YOY, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. That said, we note that very

strong Christmas retail hiring in 2011 may have contributed to the higher layoff number (temporary jobs).

Sequentially, planned layoffs increased 28% (the highest level in four months), though the report noted

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 10: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

10

that a January surge is typically expected.

ADP Employment Report. Positively, the January ADP report (published 2/1) suggested continued

momentum though a sequential moderation from a very strong December report, though likely

(admittedly) included seasonal distortion, indicating net job growth of 170,000, generally consistent with

the 180,000 consensus. Gains were predominantly driven by small (+95,000) and medium (+72,000)

businesses as well as the service economy (+152,000) versus goods-producing (+18,000) industries.

Large firm (+500 employees or more) employment continues to hold relatively flat, which may suggest

hiring has come primarily through attrition. Manufacturing employment grew by 10,000, its third

consecutive month of positive gains.

Recall, that the ADP report tracks private payroll only and is based on actual payroll receipts received by

ADP, as opposed to the survey/model-driven BLS report, which may suggest that ADP provides a better

gauge of actual employment conditions.

Total Nonfarm Private Payrols, by Firm Size (000s)

Source: ADP Employment Report

105,000

107,000

109,000

111,000

113,000

115,000

117,000

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Large Firms (499+), MoM Change

Medium Firms (50-499), MoM Change

Small Firms (1-49), MoM Change

Total Employment, (right)

Initial Jobless Claims. Initial jobless claims held relatively constant in January and remain below the

critical 400,000 level consistent with a declining unemployment rate). The weekly was report was, in

general, consistent with expectations throughout the month with the 4-week moving average now at

375,750 versus 374,000 on 12/31/11 (see figure below).

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 11: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

11

Initial Jobless Claims

Note: The red line reflects claim levels historically associated with net employment growth. Gray bars denote NBER recessions

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Jan-67 Feb-70 Mar-73 Apr-76 May-79 Jun-82 Jul-85 Aug-88 Sep-91 Oct-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09

Continuing Jobless Claims. Encouragingly, continuing claims continue to move steadily lower and are

now below previous cyclical peaks. The 4-week moving average fell to 3.487 million at the end of

January versus 3.61 million on 12/31/11. Continuing claims are ~52.5% below the recent cyclical peak in

early 2009 (see figure below).

Continuing Jobless Claims

Note: Gray bars denote NBER recessions

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Jan-67 Feb-70 Mar-73 Apr-76 May-79 Jun-82 Jul-85 Aug-88 Sep-91 Oct-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09

Unemployment Rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (which is based on a separate survey) improved by

20 bps in December to 8.3%, below the 8.5% consensus. Indeed, the unemployment rate is now at its

lowest point of the current cycle (post-recession) and (positively) was a function reflected a larger labor

pool (in other words, the decline was not a function of potential job seekers exiting the labor pool -- i.e.,

discouraged workers). The improvement also drove a decline in the U-6 unemployment rate (which

includes involuntary part-time employment and other underutilized labor) to 15.2% (-40 bps

sequentially).The unemployment rate still remains well above the previous cyclical peaks of 6.3% in

June 2003, but is approaching the 7.8% rate reported in June 1992.

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 12: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

12

Civilian Unemployment Rate (persons 16 years of age and older)

Note: The solid grey bars indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

U3 rate ("Official" unemployment rate)

U6 rate (Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers)

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 13: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

13

Uniform Stock Investment Perspectives

■ We rate G&K Services (GKSR; $38 price target) at Outperform. F1Q12 results (January) were

ahead of expectations, with better-than-expected organic growth and SG&A leverage offsetting gross

margin pressure (merchandise cost). While we recognize that F2012's gross margin pressures and

the likelihood of slowing top-line momentum on more difficult comparisons creates fewer immediate

catalysts, our valuation continues to contemplate what we see as opportunity for multi-year value

creation over the next 2-3 years. With continued opportunity to drive additional operating efficiencies,

solid execution, achievable forward estimates and reasonable valuation, we highlight what could

prove to be stronger-than-expected results, particularly in F2013.

- We believe investors are best served by taking a multi-year look at GKSR’s earnings power. In

addition, we believe outsized earnings growth potential at GKSR relative to peers continues to

justify a growth multiple for the stock. Our $38 price target assumes an essentially constant multiple

of 7.3x EBITDA and 15.0x earnings, below the stock's historical average of ~8.0x recognizing,

perhaps, lower long-term growth rates for the industry relative to history, but still discounting above

average EPS growth potential over the next several years with an implied PEG ratio of just 0.75x

(we assume ~20% EPS growth through F2013).

- We also note that our DCF model supports a price target in the upper-$30s (on full realization of

management's 10% EBIT margin target), supporting the value of the franchise beyond simple

multiples analysis

- Risks to our price target include a highly competitive industry, employment trends, and energy price

fluctuations.

■ We rate Cintas (CTAS; $38 price target) at Outperform. F2Q12 earnings in December

demonstrated meaningful momentum, with management's view for the balance of the year improved.

Importantly, CTAS sees runway for additional margin gains ahead, with recent performance providing

confidence and the company's strong cash flow and healthy balance sheet likely providing

opportunities for additional return of capital initiatives. We see conservative guidance setting the

stage for additional beat-and-raise quarters as the most likely catalyst for the stock today.

- Our $38, 12-month price target reflects 7.5x FTM EBITDA and 14.8x EPS roughly consistent with

current levels but at a discount to five-year historical levels of 8.8x and 18.3x, respectively,

recognizing more mature industry dynamics and secular multiple compression.

- Risks to our price target include a highly competitive industry, employment trends, energy and scrap

paper price fluctuations and acquisition integration.

■ We rate UniFirst (UNF; $68 price target) at Outperform. Our upgrade from Neutral to Outperform

last quarter was primarily based on valuation, but also due to opportunities for balance sheet

deployment. While the relative valuation gap versus peers (which formed the basis of our upgrade)

has likely closed, we continue to see modest upside through continued execution, cyclical tailwinds,

and, importantly, deployment of a potentially underlevered balance sheet. Indeed, return-of-capital

initiatives and/or M&A could create shareholder value through strategic deployment (we see up to

$400 million of incremental balance sheet capacity, or $20/share) and is the primary catalyst for the

stock today, in our opinion.

- Our $68 price target reflects an essentially constant 6.2x FTM EBITDA multiple on our estimates

12-months from today. We believe current multiples are appropriate, at a modest premium to

historical levels but at a discount to peers near 7.5x EBITDA (we note UNF's dual-class share

structure has historically driven a ~1-2 point valuation discount versus peers), but reflective of

positive cyclical momentum.

- In addition, we note that adjusted for UNF's underlevered balance sheet, the stock's forward

earnings multiples (ex-cash) is closer to 10x versus a ~13x historical average. While we are hesitant

to ascribe the full value of UNF's potential balance sheet to valuation, we do note that it likely

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Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 14: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

14

provides support for the stock and remains an important driver of potential value creation, keeping

risk/reward biased higher.

- Risks to our price target include a highly competitive market, employment trends, energy price

fluctuations and a 10:1 super-voting dual-class insider share structure.

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 15: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

15

Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification

Covered Companies Mentioned

All stock prices below are the February 2, 2012 closing price.

Cintas Corporation (CTAS - $37.33 - Outperform)G&K Services, Inc. (GKSR - $33.45 - Outperform)UniFirst Corporation (UNF - $61.41 - Outperform)(See recent research reports for more information)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q18

16

24

32

40

2009 2010 2011 2012

06/01/09N:$27

09/23/09U:$28

12/23/09U:$26

02/17/10U:$22

07/21/10N:$28

09/22/10N:$30

12/22/10N:$32

03/14/11O:$34

03/23/11O:$35

07/20/11O:$36

09/12/11O:$34

12/21/11O:$38

Rating and Price Target History for: Cintas Corporation (CTAS) as of 02-02-2012

Created by BlueMatrix

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q18

16

24

32

40

2009 2010 2011 2012

04/29/09N:$26

06/01/09N:$22

08/07/09N:$21

09/23/09U:$21

10/28/09N:$23

01/27/10N:$26

04/28/10N:$28

06/15/10N:$23

08/18/10N:$24

11/02/10N:$30

01/19/11O:$37

02/02/11O:$38

05/03/11O:$40

08/17/11O:$37

01/31/12O:$38

Rating and Price Target History for: G&K Services, Inc. (GKSR) as of 02-02-2012

Created by BlueMatrix

February 3, 2012 | Facility Services

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Page 16: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

16

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q10

15

30

45

60

75

2009 2010 2011 2012

06/01/09N:$37

06/02/09N:$36

07/02/09N:$39

09/23/09U:$42

10/29/09U:$43

01/07/10O:$59

04/01/10O:$60

07/01/10O:$51

10/20/10O:$54

01/05/11O:$57

01/19/11N:$58

03/30/11N:$60

06/30/11N:$61

09/12/11N:$57

10/19/11O:$60

01/05/12O:$68

Rating and Price Target History for: UniFirst Corporation (UNF) as of 02-02-2012

Created by BlueMatrix

1 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of CTAS, GKSR and UNF.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking related compensationfrom the company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated may not be licensed to execute transactions in all foreign listed securities directly. Transactions inforeign listed securities may be prohibited for residents of the United States. Please contact a Baird representative for more information.Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity marketover the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12months.Risk Ratings: L - Lower Risk - Higher-quality companies for investors seeking capital appreciation or income with an emphasis onsafety. Company characteristics may include: stable earnings, conservative balance sheets, and an established history of revenue andearnings. A - Average Risk - Growth situations for investors seeking capital appreciation with an emphasis on safety. Companycharacteristics may include: moderate volatility, modest balance-sheet leverage, and stable patterns of revenue and earnings. H -Higher Risk - Higher-growth situations appropriate for investors seeking capital appreciation with the acceptance of risk. Companycharacteristics may include: higher balance-sheet leverage, dynamic business environments, and higher levels of earnings and pricevolatility. S - Speculative Risk - High-growth situations appropriate only for investors willing to accept a high degree of volatility and risk.Company characteristics may include: unpredictable earnings, small capitalization, aggressive growth strategies, rapidly changingmarket dynamics, high leverage, extreme price volatility and unknown competitive challenges.Valuation, Ratings and Risks. The recommendation and price target contained within this report are based on a time horizon of 12months but there is no guarantee the objective will be achieved within the specified time horizon. Price targets are determined by asubjective review of fundamental and/or quantitative factors of the issuer, its industry, and the security type. A variety of methods may beused to determine the value of a security including, but not limited to, discounted cash flow, earnings multiples, peer group comparisons,and sum of the parts. Overall market risk, interest rate risk, and general economic risks impact all securities. Specific informationregarding the price target and recommendation is provided in the text of our most recent research report.Distribution of Investment Ratings. As of January 31, 2012, Baird U.S. Equity Research covered 673 companies, with 55% ratedOutperform/Buy, 43% rated Neutral/Hold and 2% rated Underperform/Sell. Within these rating categories, 12% of Outperform/Buy-rated,9% of Neutral/Hold-rated and 17% of Underperform/sell-rated companies have compensated Baird for investment banking services inthe past 12 months and/or Baird managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for these companies in the past 12 months.Analyst Compensation. Analyst compensation is based on: 1) The correlation between the analyst's recommendations and stock priceperformance; 2) Ratings and direct feedback from our investing clients, our sales force and from independent rating services; and 3) Theanalyst's productivity, including the quality of the analyst's research and the analyst's contribution to the growth and development of ouroverall research effort. This compensation criteria and actual compensation is reviewed and approved on an annual basis by Baird'sResearch Oversight Committee.Analyst compensation is derived from all revenue sources of the firm, including revenues from investment banking. Baird does notcompensate research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.A complete listing of all companies covered by Baird U.S. Equity Research and applicable research disclosures can be accessed athttp://www.rwbaird.com/research-insights/research/coverage/research-disclosure.aspx .You can also call 1-800-792-2473 or write: Robert W. Baird & Co., Equity Research, 24th Floor, 777 E. Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee,WI 53202.Analyst Certification. The senior research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this research report and/or financial modelaccurately reflect such senior analyst's personal views about the subject securities or issuers and that no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report.Disclaimers

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Page 17: January 2012 Baird Industry Report

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Baird prohibits analysts from owning stock in companies they cover.This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflectour judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but wecannot guarantee the accuracy.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUESTThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are unmanaged common stock indices used to measure andreport performance of various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not available.Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the United States Securitiesand Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and those laws and regulations may differ fromAustralian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers andnot Australian laws.Copyright 2012 Robert W. Baird & Co. IncorporatedOther DisclosuresThe information and rating included in this report represent the Analyst’s long-term (12 month) view as described above. Robert W. Baird& Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates (Baird) may provide to certain clients additional or research supplemental products or services,such as outlooks, commentaries and other detailed analyses, which focus on covered stocks, companies, industries or sectors. Not allclients who receive our standard company-specific research reports are eligible to receive these additional or supplemental products orservices. Baird determines in its sole discretion the clients who will receive additional or supplemental products or services, in light ofvarious factors including the size and scope of the client relationships. These additional or supplemental products or services mayfeature different analytical or research techniques and information than are contained in Baird’s standard research reports. Any ratingsand recommendations contained in such additional or research supplemental products are consistent with the Analyst’s long-termratings and recommendations contained in more broadly disseminated standard research reports.UK disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK and other countries for which Robert W.Baird Limited holds an ISD passport.This report is for distribution into the United Kingdom only to persons who fall within Article 19 or Article 49(2) of the Financial Servicesand Markets Act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2001 being persons who are investment professionals and may not be distributed toprivate clients. Issued in the United Kingdom by Robert W. Baird Limited, which has offices at Mint House 77 Mansell Street, London, E18AF, and is a company authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. For the purposes of the Financial ServicesAuthority requirements, this investment research report is classified as objective.Robert W. Baird Limited ("RWBL") is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated bythe Financial Services Authority ("FSA") under UK laws and those laws may differ from Australian laws. This document has beenprepared in accordance with FSA requirements and not Australian laws.

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