MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 1
March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division
Highlights
Manitoba's total population was estimated at 1,360,396 residents as of January 1, 2019, up 3,560 individuals from the October 1, 2018 estimate. Population growth continues on a twelve-month basis, with Manitoba’s increase since January 1, 2018 estimated at 16,011 people, or 1.19%. Although a net outflow of interprovincial migrants has a negative impact on Manitoba's growth, high immigration levels more than offset the loss.
Population Growth, Canada and Provinces
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01
0.26
0.19
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
AB MB ON SK CA QC BC NS PE NB NL
Change (%) Oct 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019
1.191.44
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
PE ON AB CA BC MB NS QC SK NB NL
Change (%) Jan 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019
Per '000 Population?
A rate per thousand population is calculated by dividing the number of events for a time period by the population at the mid-point of the period, then multiplying by 1,000. These crude rates allow for quick comparisons among characteristics or jurisdictions.
In this document, the mid-point population is the average of population estimates for the start and end of the quarter.
Manitoba Quarterly Population and Demographic Estimates
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and
17-10-0059-01
Demographic Component
Estimate
(Persons)
Per '000
Population
Start Population (Oct 1, 2018) 1,356,836
Natural Increase (Net) 1,347 0.99
Births 4,292 3.16
Deaths 2,945 2.17
Total Net Migration 2,213 1.63
Net Interprovincial -1,948 -1.43
In 1,990 1.46
Out 3,938 2.90
Net International 2,999 2.21Immigration 3,417 2.52
Emigration 418 0.31
Other International 1,162 0.86
Net Non-permanent Residents 1,061 0.78Returning Emigrants 188 0.14
Net Temporary Emigrants 87 0.06End Population (Jan 1, 2019) 1,360,396
Statistics Canada's documentation: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3601
Next Release: June 19, 2019.
Quarterly Demographic Estimates
J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 2
March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division
Population Growth
Quarterly growth Over the three months ending January 2019, Manitoba's population increased by an estimated 3,560 people. Our quarterly growth rate of 0.26% was stronger than Canada's 0.19%, and second among provinces.
Twelve-month growth Manitoba's population increased by an estimated 16,011 people between January 2018 and January 2019. The province's twelve-month growth rate of 1.19% was weaker than Canada's 1.44%, and fifth among provinces.
Population Estimates - Manitoba and Canada
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0009-01
Manitoba Canada
Estimate (Persons)
Jan 1, 2018 1,344,385 36,786,021
Oct 1, 2018 1,356,836 37,242,571
Jan 1, 2019 1,360,396 37,314,442
Change (Persons)
Jan 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 16,011 528,421
Oct 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 3,560 71,871
Change (%)
Jan 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 1.19 1.44Oct 1, 2018 to Jan 1, 2019 0.26 0.19
Twelve-month Growth, Component Contributions
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2018201520122009200620032000
Persons (000's) Jan 1 to Dec 31 Residual
Other InternationalMigration
Net InternationalMigration
Net InterprovincialMigration
Natural Increase
Population Growth
Other International Migration?
Other International migration groups together the temporary international migration flows and is comprised of the net change in Non-permanent Residents, plus Returning Emigrants, less Net Temporary Emigrants.
Non-permanent Residents?
The majority of Non-permanent Residents are students and temporary workers, while the remainder are refugee status claimants and non-Canadian born dependents of refugee claimants or permit holders.
Residual?
Residual deviation is obtained by distributing the error of closure linearly throughout the intercensal period.
The error of closure is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the most recent Census counts (adjusted for Census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated indian reserves).
A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population. A negative residual would then be required to correct the overestimation.
Population Estimate?
Estimates are derived from Census counts, but are adjusted for net Census undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and demographic growth.
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 3
March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division
Components of Growth
Natural Increase During the fourth quarter of 2018, Manitoba recorded a gain of 1,347 people due to natural increase (births minus deaths). Over the twelve months ending December 31, 2018, our natural increase was 6,377 people, 1.16% higher than the twelve months prior.
Total Net Migration Combining all the migration components together, Manitoba had a total net inflow of 2,213 migrants during the fourth quarter of 2018. Our quarterly rate of 1.63 migrants per thousand population ranked third among provinces. Manitoba's twelve-month total net inflow was 9,634 migrants, 29.30% less than the previous twelve months.
Net International Migration During the fourth quarter of 2018, Manitoba gained 2,999 residents through net international migration (immigrants minus emigrants). Our quarterly inflow of 3,417 immigrants resulted in a rate of 2.52 immigrants per thousand population, above Canada's rate of 1.91. During the twelve months ending December 31, 2018, Manitoba welcomed 15,221 immigrants, 3.50% more than the twelve months prior.
Other International Migration Manitoba experienced a net gain of 1,162 other international migrants during the fourth quarter of 2018, resulting in a rate of 0.86 migrants per thousand population. Our net increase of 6,154 migrants between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018 was 14.23% lower than during the preceding twelve months.
Net Interprovincial Migration Manitoba had a net interprovincial outflow of 1,948 migrants during the fourth quarter of 2018. Our quarterly rate of -1.43 migrants per thousand population ranked ninth among provinces. The province's twelve-month net interprovincial outflow was 9,918 migrants, compared to the net outflow of 6,455 migrants for the previous twelve months.
Quarterly Net Interprovincial Migration Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0020-01
-1.43
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
NS AB ON BC QC NB PE SK MB NL
Rate (per 1,000 population) Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)
Quarterly Immigration Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0040-01
2.52
1.91
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
PE MB SK ON AB BC CA NS QC NB NL
Rate (per 1,000 population) Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)
Quarterly Total Net Migration Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01,
17-10-0023-01 and 17-10-0040-01
1.63
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
AB ON MB NS SK QC BC NB PE NL
Rate (per 1,000 population) Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 4
March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division
Manitoba Net Interprovincial Migration - Gains and Losses
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0045-01
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
NL PE NS NB QC ON SK AB BC YT NT NU
Persons Q4 (Oct 1 to Dec 31)
Q4-2018 Q4-2017
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
BC NB NL PE NT NU YT QC NS SK AB ON
Change (persons) 2018 Minus 2017 (Jan 1 to Dec 31)
Q4-2018 Q4-2017
Q1-2018
to Q4-2018
Q1-2017
to Q4-2017
(1) (2) (3) (4)
NL 34 -6 40 ↑ 8 -2 10 ↑
PE 6 5 1 ↑ -8 7 -15 ↓
NS -53 -27 -26 ↓ -272 -91 -181 ↓
NB 5 -19 24 ↑ 1 -39 40 ↑
QC -39 -1 -38 ↓ -330 -192 -138 ↓
ON -879 -678 -201 ↓ -4,214 -2,478 -1,736 ↓
SK -187 2 -189 ↓ -511 205 -716 ↓
AB -781 -581 -200 ↓ -2,497 -1,620 -877 ↓BC -46 -407 361 ↑ -1,934 -2,246 312 ↑
YT -2 0 -2 ↓ -83 8 -91 ↓
NT -13 8 -21 ↓ -46 -22 -24 ↓
NU 7 -4 11 ↑ -32 15 -47 ↓TOTAL -1,948 -1,708 -240 ↓ -9,918 -6,455 -3,463 ↓
Change Change
(1)-(2) (3)-(4)
Gains and Losses: Quarterly During the fourth quarter of 2018, Manitoba had net migration gains from four jurisdictions. The largest net interprovincial inflow was from Newfoundland, while the largest outflow was to Ontario.
Compared to the same quarter twelve months ago, Manitoba's net interchange has improved with five jurisdictions.
Twelve-month Over the twelve months ending December 31, 2018, Manitoba had net migration gains from two jurisdictions. The largest net interprovincial migration inflow was from Newfoundland, while the largest outflow was to Ontario.
Compared to the previous twelve month period, Manitoba's net interchange has improved with three jurisdictions.
Gains and Losses?
Manitoba is considered to have a net gain when the number of people moving in from a given province or territory is greater than the number moving out, otherwise the net interchange is considered to be a loss.
Example: Say 28 people moved from Manitoba to Ontario and, over the same time period, 10 people moved from Ontario to Manitoba. Our resulting net interchange with Ontario would be a loss of 18 people.
Contact: Tara Newton [email protected]
MBS intranet website: http://intranet.mbgov.ca/finance/mbs/Pages/default.aspx
MBS public website: http://www.gov.mb.ca/mbs/
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 5
March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division
Manitoba Net Migration - Gains and Losses
Current Quarter
Current Twelve-month period
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0045-01
-5,000 0 5,000
InflowOutflowTotal Net Movement
39
879
187
78146
October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018
Total Net Movement: 2,213
Net International: 2,999
Other International:(Net Non-permanent Residents,Returning Emigrants &Net Temporary Emigrants)
1,162
Atlantic8
Territories8
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000
InflowOutflowTotal Net Movement
330
4,214
511
2,4971,934
January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018
Total Net Movement: 9,634
Net International: 13,398
Other International:(Net Non-permanent Residents,Returning Emigrants &Net Temporary Emigrants)
6,154
Atlantic271
Territories161
MBS Bulletin Q u a r t e r l y D e m o g r a p h i c E s t i m a t e s , J a n u a r y 2 0 1 9 6
March 21, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division
Manitoba Population and Demographic Estimates - 12-month (Persons)
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01
Jan 1 to
Dec 31
Start
Population
Natural
Increase
Net
Interprovincial
Net
International
Other
International Total Net
Component
Growth Residual
Population
Growth
End
Population
1999 1,138,946 4,455 -2,387 2,074 1,133 820 5,275 207 5,482 1,144,428
2000 1,144,428 4,198 -4,188 2,999 812 -377 3,821 207 4,028 1,148,456
2001 1,148,456 4,268 -4,633 2,946 967 -720 3,548 833 4,381 1,152,837
2002 1,152,837 4,039 -4,120 3,204 1,213 297 4,336 1,196 5,532 1,158,369
2003 1,158,369 4,073 -2,189 4,860 1,347 4,018 8,091 1,196 9,287 1,167,656
2004 1,167,656 3,908 -3,823 6,011 1,099 3,287 7,195 1,200 8,395 1,176,051
2005 1,176,051 4,288 -8,602 6,246 741 -1,615 2,673 1,196 3,869 1,179,920
2006 1,179,920 4,791 -7,277 8,313 1,022 2,058 6,849 -2,266 4,583 1,184,503
2007 1,184,503 5,327 -3,449 9,249 2,074 7,874 13,201 -4,296 8,905 1,193,4082008 1,193,408 5,412 -3,931 9,567 1,555 7,191 12,603 -4,309 8,294 1,201,702
2009 1,201,702 5,968 -2,514 11,972 1,102 10,560 16,528 -4,297 12,231 1,213,933
2010 1,213,933 5,801 -2,590 14,160 204 11,774 17,575 -4,296 13,279 1,227,212
2011 1,227,212 5,370 -4,171 14,423 1,297 11,549 16,919 -1,990 14,929 1,242,1412012 1,242,141 6,296 -3,928 11,789 2,372 10,233 16,529 -730 15,799 1,257,940
2013 1,257,940 6,373 -6,146 11,642 2,481 7,977 14,350 -728 13,622 1,271,5622014 1,271,562 5,857 -6,884 14,489 2,157 9,762 15,619 -728 14,891 1,286,453
2015 1,286,453 6,005 -5,859 13,069 3,604 10,814 16,819 -728 16,091 1,302,544
2016 1,302,544 6,153 -5,426 15,048 6,395 16,017 22,170 -259 21,911 1,324,455
2017 1,324,455 6,304 -6,455 12,906 7,175 13,626 19,930 0 19,930 1,344,385
2018 1,344,385 6,377 -9,918 13,398 6,154 9,634 16,011 0 16,011 1,360,3962019 1,360,396
Migration
Manitoba Population and Demographic Estimates - Quarterly (Persons)
Source: Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-0009-01, 17-10-0020-01, 17-10-0040-01 and 17-10-0059-01
Start of
Quarter
Start
Population
Natural
Increase
Net
Interprovincial
Net
International
Other
International Total Net
Component
Growth Residual
Population
Growth
End
Population
Jan 1, 2014 1,271,562 1,048 -1,646 3,324 298 1,976 3,024 -179 2,845 1,274,407
Apr 1, 2014 1,274,407 1,559 -2,083 4,554 759 3,230 4,789 -182 4,607 1,279,014
Jul 1, 2014 1,279,014 1,968 -2,134 3,568 1,133 2,567 4,535 -183 4,352 1,283,366
Oct 1, 2014 1,283,366 1,282 -1,021 3,043 -33 1,989 3,271 -184 3,087 1,286,453
Jan 1, 2015 1,286,453 895 -1,738 2,622 41 925 1,820 -179 1,641 1,288,094
Apr 1, 2015 1,288,094 1,647 -1,785 3,661 792 2,668 4,315 -182 4,133 1,292,227
Jul 1, 2015 1,292,227 1,912 -1,643 3,465 1,551 3,373 5,285 -183 5,102 1,297,329
Oct 1, 2015 1,297,329 1,551 -693 3,321 1,220 3,848 5,399 -184 5,215 1,302,544
Jan 1, 2016 1,302,544 1,293 -888 3,921 1,000 4,033 5,326 -181 5,145 1,307,689
Apr 1, 2016 1,307,689 1,567 -1,657 4,933 1,685 4,961 6,528 -78 6,450 1,314,139
Jul 1, 2016 1,314,139 1,983 -2,293 3,617 2,611 3,935 5,918 0 5,918 1,320,057
Oct 1, 2016 1,320,057 1,310 -588 2,577 1,099 3,088 4,398 0 4,398 1,324,455
Jan 1, 2017 1,324,455 1,342 -886 3,537 534 3,185 4,527 0 4,527 1,328,982
Apr 1, 2017 1,328,982 1,607 -1,357 4,165 1,999 4,807 6,414 0 6,414 1,335,396
Jul 1, 2017 1,335,396 2,022 -2,504 3,136 2,726 3,358 5,380 0 5,380 1,340,776
Oct 1, 2017 1,340,776 1,333 -1,708 2,068 1,916 2,276 3,609 0 3,609 1,344,385
Jan 1, 2018 1,344,385 1,360 -2,244 3,012 338 1,106 2,466 0 2,466 1,346,851
Apr 1, 2018 1,346,851 1,616 -2,743 4,132 2,298 3,687 5,303 0 5,303 1,352,154
Jul 1, 2018 1,352,154 2,054 -2,983 3,255 2,356 2,628 4,682 0 4,682 1,356,836
Oct 1, 2018 1,356,836 1,347 -1,948 2,999 1,162 2,213 3,560 0 3,560 1,360,396Jan 1, 2019 1,360,396
Migration
Appendix Tables
Comparability over time?
Estimates of population and demographic components may not be fully comparable over time due to seasonal effects, changes in methodologies and completeness of source data.