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Japan's venture habitat

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Mr. Allen Miner Lecture on 04/20/2010 at Stanford.
33
Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build Successful global businesses Creating Creating Global Ventures Global Ventures The next challenge for Japan’s evolving venture habitat Allen Miner Chairman & CEO SunBridge Corp.
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Page 1: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

Successful global businesses

CreatingCreating

Global VenturesGlobal Ventures

The next challenge for

Japan’s evolving venture habitat

Allen Miner

Chairman & CEO

SunBridge Corp.

Page 2: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

2

AgendaAgenda

� Introducing SunBridge

� Japan’s Evolving Venture Habitat

�Concentration of Creativity

�Entrepreneurism

�Venture Ecosystem Improvements

�Venture Finance

� Competing Globally

Page 3: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

Successful global businesses

IntroducingIntroducing

SunBridgeSunBridge

Page 4: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

SunBridge Founding Goals (2000)SunBridge Founding Goals (2000)

� Create a Dynamic Venture Habitat that combines the best features of Silicon Valley and Japan

� to influence and improve Japan’s Venture Ecosystem, helping to create

� World-class Global Ventures, and

� World-class (top-quartile) investment returns

Page 5: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

SunBridge Venture HabitatSunBridge Venture Habitat

AffiliatedAffiliatedVentureVenture

Sales & MarketingSolutions

Technology Services

IT VendorsIT Vendors

IntegratorsIntegrators

ISPsISPs

End UsersEnd Users

ConsultantsConsultants

PR FirmsPR Firms

DesignersDesigners

AgenciesAgencies

VCsVCs、、BanksBanks

AccountantsAccountants

LawyersLawyers

IncubatorsIncubators RecruitersRecruiters

UniversitiesUniversities

NPOsNPOs

Etc.Etc.

AffiliatedAffiliatedVentureVenture

UnrelatedUnrelatedVentureVenture

EstablishedEnterprise

Alliance

Information exchangeand collaboration

Human Resource Services

AllianceAlliance

EstablishedEnterpriseVenture

CapitalandStrategicSupport

Information exchangeand collaboration

150 Professionals$100M invested

Page 6: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

Page 7: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

Successful global businesses

JapanJapan’’s s

Venture HabitatVenture Habitat

Concentrated CreativityConcentrated Creativity

With strong creativity and power to innovate, Japanese inventions have changed the world, the way we work and the way we live while creating new industry sectors and employment.

Page 8: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

Tokyo and Osaka: leaders of the Tokyo and Osaka: leaders of the ““Spiky WorldSpiky World””

� #1 and #9: World’s largest metropolitan areas

� Fortune 500 Headquarters#1 Tokyo: 51#8 Osaka: 7

� Global patent leaders

� Leading per capita GDP

Page 9: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

9

Japan is an Innovation SuperpowerJapan is an Innovation Superpower

2004 patentsJapan: 342,726 vs. US: 167,183

Leads the world in Patents Issued

Page 10: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

Patents in VCPatents in VC--favored Technologiesfavored Technologies

10

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Japan leads the world in R&D investmentJapan leads the world in R&D investment

(Source: Eurostat, OECD)

R&D Intensity (%)

R&D Intensity

AAGR (%) R&D Intensity (R&D expenditure as a % of GDP)

in 2004 and average annual growth rate (AAGR)

of R&D Intensity (’99-’04)

Japan R&DInvestment:3.3% and accelerating

R&D share of GDP significantly leads US and Europe & growing faster

Page 12: Japan's venture habitat

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““Lifestyle ITLifestyle IT”” leadersleaders

Japanese introduced the world to most of its “Lifestyle IT” products

• Lifestyle IT (non-computer computers)–Game consoles, digital cameras, car navigation, entertainment robots, mobile internet, IPTV, Mobile DTV, etc.

• Key enabling technologies–LCD, Flash Memory, CCDs, magnetic and optical storage density and miniaturization, micromotors, IPv6 technologies, battery & fuel cell advances, mobile browsers, laser-scale hard disk servos, etc.

• The result is an ever-richer technology ecosystem underpinning the success of numerous Japanese startups

–Access, Index, Faith, Cybird, Shicoh, g-mode, Advanced Media, byD:sign, etc.

These are the kinds of products (not enterprise-productivity tools) that are driving global IT innovation and growth today

Page 13: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

Successful global businesses

Japanese Japanese

Entrepreneurs Entrepreneurs

Contrary to popular myths, in Japan, as everywhere else, innovation is driven by individual ‘heroes’ – not by industry associations or government. Increasingly, these ‘heroes’ are innovating in entrepreneurial settings rather than corporate or government laboratories.

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14

(出典: : Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 2002: www.gemconsortium.org)(TEA=that percent of the labor force that is either actively involved in starting a new venture or the owner/manager of a business that is less than 42 months old)

World laggard in new business formationWorld laggard in new business formation

Consistently ranks near bottom of annual GEM Entrepreneurial Activity study

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Highly entrepreneurial at timesHighly entrepreneurial at times

In times of great change many new companies are formed

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Founding year of Japanese Public Companies

(compiled in 1998)

1/3 (599) were formed

in the 1948-53 GHQ

era of dramatic social

change and economic

recov ery

Page 16: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

16

WorldWorld--class Japanese Entrepeneursclass Japanese Entrepeneurs

Winners of Nikkei’s annual Entrepreneur Awards

PlusOffice Furniture and Supplies ManufacturerFounded: 1948.2006 Employees: 4,2642006 Turnover: private2007 Mkt. Cap: private

Yoshihisa Imaizumi – 2001 Winner

Park 24Automated Parking Lot Mgt. 20,000+ stallsFounded: 1971. Age 332006 Employees: 6382006 Turnover: 6532007 Mkt. Cap: 2,323

Kiyoshi Nishikawa – 2000 Winner

H.I.S. GroupDiscount travel & tourism70 international branchesFounded: 1980. Age 292006 Employees: 4,3282006 Turnover: 3,2892007 Mkt. Cap: 1,267

Hideo Sawada - 1999 Winner

Culture Convenience Club

Tsutaya Media Rental Chain, Online mediaFounded: 1982.2006 Employees: 3,0782006 Turnover: 2,2832007 Mkt. Cap: 1,219

Muneaki Masuda - 2003 Winner

NidecWorld leader in brushless micro-sized DC motorsFounded: 1973. Age 292007 Employees: 80,0262007 Turnover: 6,2962007 Mkt. Cap: 10,264

Shigenobu Nagamori - 2006 Winner

TempstaffJapan’s second largest temporary staff agencyFounded: 1973.2006 Employees: 2,0162006 Turnover: 2,1292007 Mkt. Cap: 1,028

Yoshiko Shinohara - 2007 Winner

Fast RetailingInexpensive casual-wear manufacturing and retailFounded: 19632006 Employees: 3,9902006 Turnover: 4,4882007 Mkt. Cap: 9,048

Tadashi Yanai - 2004 Winner

SoftBankSoftware Distribtution to Internet ZaibatsuFounded: 1980. Age 232006 Employees: 17,0752006 Turnover: 11,0862007 Mkt. Cap: 27,188

Masayoshi Son – 2005 Winner

PiaTicket retailing and event information publishingFounded: 1972. Age 222006 Employees: 3082006 Turnover: 9612007 Mkt. Cap: 182

Hiroshi Yanai - 2002 Winner

Page 17: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

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Japanese VentureJapanese Venture

Ecosystem Ecosystem

ImprovementsImprovements

How to create more world-class entrepreneurs?

From the mid-1990s MITI officials began to have serious concerns about the lack of high-potential technology startup activity in Japan and launched a 10-year initiative to study Silicon Valley and replicate its features as much as possible.

Page 18: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

Dramatic changes in a short timeDramatic changes in a short time

From the perspective of entrepreneurs starting companies and the Venture firms backing them, Japan’s regulatory environment, capital markets, labor mobility and social attitudes have changed so dramatically in the past 6 or 7 years as to be nearly unrecognizable to someone who’s knowledge of Japan is rooted in the common sense of the 1980s bubble era or 1990s lost decade.

2000-04 Dramatic structural change• Commercial code and IPO rule changes• Shift in domestic VC focus from very

late stage to very early stage• University TLOs, spinouts encouraged• Restructurings, Layoffs

- end of lifetime employment

2004-6 Recovery• Economy, Stock Mkt.• Emergence of

“Serial Entrepreneurs”2008-09 Collapse of IPO markets- J-Sox, Global Financial Crisis

Over 20,000 1-yen companies registered in first two years after regulation changes allowed them.

Quicker exitson new markets. Better IRRsfor VCs & LPs

New access toWorld-class R&D

Dramatic regulatory changes

Top 5Waseda 65Osaka 46Keio 43

Kyoto 37Tokyo 33

Entre-preneurialRenaissance?

Page 19: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

Where HighWhere High--Growth Companies Start TodayGrowth Companies Start Today

Because of the world-famous examples of such companies as Oracle, Cisco, Google, and Salesforce.com, it is widely believed that Silicon Valley creates more high-growth companies than any other region in the world.

Number of public companies formed after 1997 which had sales greater than $50M in 2007 and three consecutive years of growth above 50% from 2005-2007.

(source: SunBridge analysis of Bloomberg data)

By Country:

By Metro:

China 27US 22Japan 12India 10

Tokyo 10Silicon Valley 6Shanghai 4

Page 20: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

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Venture FinanceVenture Finance

in Japanin Japan

A shortage of private capital and low barrier to public offering led to

exceptional VC returns while limiting the long-term growth potential of Japanese

startups.

Page 21: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

IPO leadIPO lead--time truncated after 2000time truncated after 2000

Quicker exitson new markets. Better IRRsfor VCs & LPs

Page 22: Japan's venture habitat

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Japanese VC Investments by Company AgeJapanese VC Investments by Company Age

Figures are total amount invested (in \100M units) 1996-2001 are percentages

2 3 19 13 10 13

27 32

5954 659 467 596 261

1521 14

1614 194 141 199 125

20

2117

11

7 111 69 101 3639

29 35

1123 285 185 244 113

21 1

25

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0 <5 5 to 10 10 to 15 >15Age (in years) of company at time of investment

Shift from pre-IPO to earlier stage investing.

Over 50% of investments now in companies under 5 years old

Source: VEC Annual Surveys

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Comparing VC Investments GloballyComparing VC Investments Globally

2.2 3.5

3.7

4.1 7

.9 11

.0 14

.6 20

.9

53

.6

10

4.8

40

.8

21

.6

18

.9

21

.0

21

.7

7.2 8.8 1

2.6 1

8.8

32

.7

45

.5

31

.6

27

.2

2.6

1.8

0.8 1.5

1.6 2.4

2.0

1.2 2.3

2.8

1.1

1.7

1.5

2.0

0000

10101010

20202020

30303030

40404040

50505050

60606060

70707070

80808080

90909090

100100100100

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

99

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

US ($1B)

EU (€1B)

JP (Y100B)

VC as % of2004 GDP__US 0.17%EU 0.10%JP 0.04%

Japan’s VC industry may be significantly underfunded

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24

(出典: : Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 2001: www.gemconsortium.org)

Japanese VC industry spreads riskJapanese VC industry spreads risk

Many small investments across large portfolios

Page 25: Japan's venture habitat

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Macro financial factors supportingMacro financial factors supporting

potentially high VC returns in Japanpotentially high VC returns in Japan

� Shortage of Capital vs Size of Opportunity

� VC/GDP ratio < ¼ that of US.

� No Overhang in Japan “US VC is still about 3 times overfunded”(Ray Lane, at Stanford Summit, 4/6/05)

� Very Few megafunds exist in Japan

� Venture Economics fund benchmark data shows a precipitous drop-off in IRR performance as funds grow larger than $250M

� Buyers Market = Attractive deal valuations

� Fewer me-too startups = Higher probability of success

� Better capital efficiency = Less dilution

� Attractive IPO exit market (UNTIL J-SOX!!!)

� Stable = No need to force companies thru a window

� Reasonable = Less (wasteful) regulatory overhead

� Continued acceptance of young emerging cos.

� Median Revenues of about US$20M, profits of

$1-2M at IPO on Mothers and Hercules

� Side-effect: Underdeveloped M&A exit market

� Result: Better environment for high VC returns!

3.7 4.1

7.9 1

1.0 14

.6

20

.9

40

.8

21

.6

18

.9

21

.0

21

.7

1.9

2.4 3.4 5.0

8.8 1

2.3

8.5 9.8

8.4 1

1.0

0.8 1.5

1.6 2.4

2.0

1.2 2.3 2.8

1.7

1.5

2.0

10

4.8

53

.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

93年93年93年93年 94年94年94年94年 95年95年95年95年 96年96年96年96年 97年97年97年97年 98年98年98年98年 99年99年99年99年 00年00年00年00年 01年01年01年01年 02年02年02年02年 03年03年03年03年 04年04年04年04年 05年05年05年05年US ($1B)US ($1B)US ($1B)US ($1B)EU (EU (EU (EU (€1B)1B)1B)1B)JP (\100B)JP (\100B)JP (\100B)JP (\100B)

(Sources: NVCA, EVCA, VEC)

Trend of Annual Venture Capital Investments

VC as % of2004 GDPUS

0.17%EU

0.10%JP

0.04%

USReturnsPeaked

Here

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Top Quartile Vintage 2000 VC Funds (IRR)

49.50%

8.45%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

SunBridge

Average Top Quartile

Top Quartile Vintage 2001 VC Funds (IRR)

10.4%

8.1%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Equitek

Average Top Quartile

Top Quartile Vintage 2002 VC Funds (IRR)

24.3%

6.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

SunBridge 2002

Average Top Quartile

3.9x net to date

1.3x net to date

1.3x net to date

SunBridge Investment PerformanceSunBridge Investment Performance

Former executives of Oracle, Sybase, SAS, Adobe, Fuji Xerox, Recruit, Accenture and IBM Japan providing strategic guidance and a full range of business development services to Japanese, American, Asian and European entrepreneurs striving to grow successful technology businesses in Japan.

. $100M invested.• 45 Japanese and 12 US companies• Information Technologies and Internet.• Seed & startup in Japan. Early expansion in US.• Actively add significant strategic value beyond

capital• World-ranking IPO (7) and M&A exits• Global top-quartile IRR

Top 20 2004 IPOs (US and Japan, by Initial Market Cap., $Ms)

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Google

SMIC

DreamWorks Animation

Cabela's

Salesforce.com

EyeTech Pharmaceuticals

Bill Barrett Corp

Shanda Interactive Entertainment

NetPrice (#1 in Japan)

Shicoh Engineering (#2 in Japan)

InPhonic

Lipman Electronic Engineering

Archipelago Holdings

MCJ (#3 in Japan)

Kanbay International

Atheros Communications

Macromill (#4 in Japan)

Fujipream (#5 in Japan)

Shopping.com

Dipping (#6 in Japan)

Top 20 Venture-Backed Acquisitions 2001 to 2005 ($Ms)

$843$805

$775$665

$625$550

$527$525$525

$501$486

$466$450

$421$415

$400$385

$370$355

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000

Skype, 3Q05Antero Resources, 2Q05

Flarion, 3Q05Seisint, 3Q04

Hotwire.com, 4Q03VMWare, 1Q04

VxTel, 1Q01Angiosyn, 2Q05Shopzilla, 2Q05

Lynk Systems, 3Q04Interactive Search, 2Q04

ESP Pharma, 1Q05Catena Networks, 2Q04

Airespace, 1Q05Amber Networks, 3Q01

Viva Inc, 1Q05LightLogic, 2Q01TradeWeb, 2Q04Brightmail, 2Q04

Ocular Networks, 1Q02

IT Media

Japan

Page 27: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

How are we doing? (2010)How are we doing? (2010)

�A Dynamic Venture Habitat that borrows best practices from both Silicon Valley and Japan

�to influence and improve Japan’s Venture Ecosystem, helping to create

�World-class Global Ventures, and

�World-class (top-quartile) investment returns

××××

Page 28: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate Entrepreneurs build

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Competing GloballyCompeting Globally

Japan continues to create many world-class entrepreneurs and multi-hundred-million dollar high-growth companies.

Why don’t they expand internationally like they used to?

Page 29: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

““The Middle is MissingThe Middle is Missing””

� 2004 get-acquainted meeting with METI’s newest “shinki sangyou tanto kachou”

� “Don’t japanese startups have a hard time raising seed capital?”

� Japan does not lack seed capital or exit opportunities. But private $10M+ “C round” (and D round?) to enable aggressive sales and product expansion is missing…

� Instead the entire Venture Ecosystem pushes Japanese entrepreneurs to go public as quickly as possible

� They raise cash that they can’t use for aggressive organic growth and often underperform expectations after their IPO.

� Japan needs a “chotto matte IPO” fund or two.

29

Page 30: Japan's venture habitat

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The domestic opportunity is big enough?The domestic opportunity is big enough?

Alexa WW

Company Site Rank Revenue International

Rakuten #73 $2.98B fr 2010 w/ Baidu

CyberAgent #77 $938M fr 2008. neglig.

Index Holdings mob. $724M 13%

DeNA mob. $376M fr 2008. neglig.

Mixi #96 $120M 3%

30

Globalization of Some Leading Japanese Internet Cos.Globalization of Some Leading Japanese Internet Cos.

My most disappointing globalization warMy most disappointing globalization war--storystory

Page 31: Japan's venture habitat

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China/Shanghai vs. US/Silicon ValleyChina/Shanghai vs. US/Silicon Valley

� Emerging Economic power = rapidly growing market opportunity

� Biggest internet and mobile markets

� Current WW Focus of attention & capital

� Cultural cousins

� Not a stepping stone for global expansion

� Established Economic power = big established market opportunity

� Big internet and biggest smartphone markets

� Gathering place of global Tech talent & capital

� Cultural opposites?

� Highly connected worldwide (incl. China)

� Repeatedly creates “the next big thing”

31

Page 32: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

What Can I do about it?What Can I do about it?

Since 2009: Shifted my emphasis from

Bringing “Silicon Valley” to Japan to

Bringing Japanese to Silicon Valley

Page 33: Japan's venture habitat

Helping passionate entrepreneursbuild successful global businesses

Launching soon at Plug & PlayLaunching soon at Plug & Play

� The most active, dynamic hub for startup activity and related industry interaction in Silicon Valley.

� Continuous flow of local VCs and international visitors that provides high-value networking opportunities

� Launch with 5 high-potential Japanese startups and a network of supporters

� Attract US VC expansion capital and world-caliber executive talent


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