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Inflection Points and Polar Bears Jason Hamilton Thomas J. Pfaff
| Date post: | 19-Dec-2015 |
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Inflection Points and Polar Bears
Jason HamiltonThomas J. Pfaff
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7013.20
13.40
13.60
13.80
14.00
14.20
14.40
14.60
14.80
15.00f(x) = 0.000278381926013931 x² − 0.00290301903785536 x + 13.9651003056405R² = 0.803909460802452
Average Global Temp in C by Years after 1950
Glacier Pair Imageshttp://www.windows.ucar.edu/
teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf
A Look at Global Temperature
T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00527x+57.137 FT’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year
x years after 1950
T(58)= 58.51 F and T’(58)=0.0528 F/yearIn 2008 the average global temperature was
58.51 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0528 deg F per year.
- Now Ask a Question About This-
National Academies Report: Climate Change
The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s warming was not due to changes in the Sun.
-March 2006
Temperature PredictionsT(100)=61.60 F and T(150)=67.61 FThe model predicts that in 2050 the average
temperature will be 61.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.61 deg F, an increase of 3.49 and 9.48 deg F, respectively, since 2000.
–Now Ask a Question About This-
More Temperature PredictionsUsing T’(58)=.0528 F/yearIf global temperatures continue to increase
at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.24 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.37, respectively.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7053
54
55
56
57
58
59
Average Global Temp in F by Years after 1950
-National Academies Report on Climate Change (March 2006)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
f(x) = − 0.000654276 x⁶ + 0.02264835 x⁵ − 0.29305592 x⁴ + 1.81852903 x³ − 6.00367805 x² + 10.081854 x + 8.39787879R² = 0.983310019501055
f(x) = − 0.00029262 x⁶ + 0.0097127 x⁵ − 0.11862834 x⁴ + 0.70835403 x³ − 2.55757499 x² + 5.25739536 x + 11.6584848R² = 0.996794192382088
Arctic Sea Ice Extent by Month in Million Square Kilometers
1980 extent in million square kmPolynomial (1980 extent in million square km)2008 extent in million square kmPolynomial (2008 extent in million square km)
Summary of Sea Ice1980
Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59
Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79
Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44
Melt Period: 6.20 months
2008Max: 15.11 msk,
x=2.26Min: 5.40 msk,
x=8.80Inf: -2.84
msk/month, x=6.77Melt Period: 6.54
months
Who Cares? D Heat content of atmosphere & hydrosphere
D Air Temperature & D Water Temperature
D Ice
D Ice•Spatial Extent?•Thickness?•Timing of thaw?•Timing of re-freeze?•Ice characteristics?
January
Sept March
June
Thaw
Freeze
Shrink
Grow
Males
January
Sept March
June
Thaw
Freeze
Den
Females
Leave den
Cubs
Mate
So Who Cares? We Do.
?
