Jefferies-High Yield-Energy & Power Presentation-Jan 2005-Greg Imbruce

7/30/2019 Jefferies-High Yield-Energy & Power Presentation-Jan 2005-Greg Imbruce

1/29


2/29

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Fdfrgx # ^awfr Vdhsfr{f

Fdfrgx F#^

Orhiifr{

Ahi [frshkf

^ra~`df

Rfchdhdg # L`refthdg

[fh{lhk

^awfr H^^{

Fifktrhk # G`{ Vthihthf{


3/29

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krfoht{ ta ifsfi{ dfsfr {ffd bfcarf Wf f}~fkt {trfdgtm ta kadthdvf `{ ` rf{vit ac mhgm ?P>?

kallaohtx ~rhkf{

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4/29

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Dalhdì s{$ Rfì D`tG`{ ^} -_ao`x'{ Oaii`r{(

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Dalhdì D`tG`{ ^}

Rfì D`tG`{ ^}


5/29

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/0>> Krvof Ahi1

L`xbf datbvt 4/;> hd lfohvl,tfrl {v~~artfo bx:

Krvof Ahi ~rhkfo hd V[O , V[O wfèdf{{ orhshdg ofl`do `{ Ahirfl`hd{ rfi`thsfix hdf}~fd{hsf ta rf{t ac wario

Kmhd` mx~fr,grawtm cvfihdg ofl`do

Giabì _mrf`t{ Hr`p) Hr`d) D$ Earf` `do tmf vdedawd{ Rf{frsf vdkfrt`hdtx ovf ta {vbjfkthsf fdghdffrhdg kìkvi`thad{

_mf âihthkì Rv{{h` Gaf{ [ma~~hdg `do frr`thk Sfdfzvfi`

F}kf{{ krvof ahi k`~`khtx gahdg) gahdg) gadf -%>$2& ~fr xf`r(

Kal~avdohdg `b{aivtf ofl`do grawtm -%0$6& ~fr xf`r(

_mf _rfòlhii Hdhthì ~raovkthad ofkihdf{ 2>,;>& ad{marf `do

?6,6>& acc{marf


6/29

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Rfì Ahi ^rhkf -/!Bbi(

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Dalhdì s{$ Rfì Krvof Ahi } -_ao`x'{ Oaii`r{(

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/!Bbi

Dalhdì Krvof Ahi }

Rfì Krvof Ahi }


7/293

Hdof~fdofdt F#^{ Orhsf L`reft

Iawfr kallaohtx ~rhkf{ oaf{dt lf`d iawfr `kthshtx

Hdof~fdofdt F#^{ bfkalf tmf l`jar D@ ~i`xfr) orhshdgbrfèfsfd mhgmfr `do {v~~arthdg iadg,tfrl /;>!Bbi `do /?!Lkc`{ k`~`khtx rfl`hd{ thgmt

MHGM XHFIO F#^ FKADALHK[ Ahi D`tG`{

Fpvhs$ Fpvhs$

/!BAF /!LKCF

IAF /6$22 />$=7

^rao$ _`}f{ /0$=3 />$;0IAF % _`}f{ /7$>= /0$0=

G#@ /2$?3 />$?0A~fr`thdg Ka{t{ /8$6? /0$68K`{m Hdt$ F}~$ /;$>3 />$60

_atì K`{m Ka{t{ /02$3> /2$0>

@sg$ Ohccfrfdthì -/0$=>( -/>$;>(

DXLF] Brfèfsfd /0?$?> /2$?>

@sg$ CO#@ /7$6> /0$26

@ii,Hd DXLF] Brfèfsfd /20$8> /;$36


8/297

_mf Oh{kaddfkt h{ Kaddfktfo

L#@ Hdtfgr`thad

B`i`dkf [mfft kif`d,v~ cral 2>>0,2>>2 L#@

Kallaohtx ^rhkf{

F#^{ orhiifo l`jarhtx ac ~ra{~fkt{ hd mhgm D`tG`{ ~rhkffdshradlfdt ovrhdg 2>>0

Bv{x ~ra{~fkt bvhiohdg ovrhdg 2>>2 2>>;

Rf`ox ta orhii

Ahi [frshkf Baal bfghddhdg ta flfrgf ovf ta tmf F#^ hdov{trx{kal~ifthad ac tmf caiiawhdg:


9/29=

Ahi [frshkf Baal

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10/298

2>>6{ L`jar Orhsfr{

Ahi {frshkf baal `do rfkaro L#@ KADSFRGF) krf`thdg trflfdoav{lalfdtvl hd tmf F#^ `do Ahi [frshkf hdov{trhf{$

F#^{ â{hthadfo car sìvf krf`thad whtm `l~if ihpvhohtx `do`kkf{{ ta k`~htì l`reft{ rfòhix `s`hi`bif

F}~fkt rfkaro L#@ hd 2>>6 hd F#^ `do Ahi [frshkf{ Vdakì

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Rfchdhdg [trfdgtm ta Kadthdvf ovf ta vdofr hdsf{tlfdt


11/290>

[tradg Bvx{ # Bvx{

@lt$ A![

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[_RADG BVX[:

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Kì~hdf Kar~$ =$6 [r$ [fk$ Dt{$,2do Ihfd 0> DR ! B /0)06> =2$> 0;$2>& 8?7 ;$8

Fdfrgx Kar~$ ac @lfrhk` 8$6 [r$ [vb$ Dt{$ >7 K``; ! DR /82 86$; 00$=7& =3? 2$>

Krawd Kfdtrì ^ftraifvl 0>$=76 [r$ Dt{$ >6 K` ! DR /026 83$> 007$=6& 8)2;6 >$>

Lh{{had Rf{avrkf{ 8$=76 [r$ Dt{$ 00 K``2 ! KKK /0;> 0>3$; =$;7& ?32 ?$>

[$âhdt!Braò Rhsfr!RakeGfd -Kì~hdf( 8$=26 `{{ _mrv Kfrt{$ 08 B2 ! B /2>> =?$> 02$20& 782 3$8

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Vdhtfo Rfchdhdg 0>$6 [r$ Dt{$ 02 B; ! B, /2>> 0>6$6 8$20& 6?7 ?$>

BVX[:

@pvhi` 0?$=76 [r$ Dt{$ 02 B2 ! B, /6>> 0;8$6 7$78& ?>6 6$>

B`xtf} Fdfrgx 8$326 [r$ [vb$ Dt{$ 0> B; ! B, /0=> 0>3$= 7$=2& ??2 ;$6

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Bfiofd # Bièf =$76 [r$ [fk$ Dt{$,2do Ihfd 02 B; !*, ! KKK% /08; 0>2$6 =$0=& ??; ?$0

Kìiad ftraifvl 8$76 [r$ Dt{$ 0> DR ! DR /2>> 0>3$3 =$;6& ?3> ;$8

Fdfrgx ^`rtdfr{ =$76 [r$ Dt{$ 0> B2 ! B% /06> 0>8$> 3$?;& ;>; 2$8Mhikar~ Fdfrgx 0>$6 [r$ Dt{$ 0> B; ! B /276 00;$= 3$6=& ;0= 2$2

J R`x LkOfrlatt 00 [r$ [fk$ Dt{$,2do Ihfd 0; K``0 ! KKK% /2>> 000$= =$30& ?=3 ;$2

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Dartm @lfrhk`d Fdfrgx =$76 [r$ Dt{$ 00 B2 ! B /2>> 0>2$> =$2?& ?60 ;$8

^`refr Orhiihdg 8$326 [r$ Dt{$ 0; B2 ! B, /076 002$0 7$>0& ;2= ;$0

^`refr Orhiihdg 0>$026 [r$ Dt{$ >8 B2 ! B, /063 0>6$2 7$30& ?8? >$=

[m`w Grav~ 0>$76 [r$ Dt{$ 0> B`; ! B% /26; 002$> 7$>2& ;3? 0$8

Sfdaka =$76 [r$ Dt{$ 00 K``0 ! KKK% /06> 0>;$> =$0>& ?;6 ?$3

^rhkf


12/2900

[w`~ # [fii Hof`{

@lt$ A![

Kal~`dx Bado Of{krh~thad R`thdg{ V[O /LL X_W [_W Ovr`thad[W@^[:

Avt ac:

Kì~hdf Kar~$ =$6 [r$ Dt{$ 00 K``0 ! KKK% /0)880 72$> 06$=;& 0)20> ?$0

Hdta:

_hsfrtad!Rvlcaro âwfr -Kì~hdf( 8 `{{ _mrv Kfrt{$ 0= B; ! B /;3? =2$> 0;$33& 78; ;$8

ar Hdta:

Kì~hdf Kar~$ 7$=2 [r$ [fk$ Dt{$,2do Ihfd >7 DR ! B /?8? 82$> 0?$;;& 0)027 0$6

ar Hdta:

Kì~hdf Kar~$ =$6 [r$ Dt{$ >= K``0 ! KKK% /2)>;> 76$> 08$>;& 0)633 2$3[FII[:

@br`}`{ ^ftraifvl 8$72 [r$ [fk$ Dt{$,0{t Ihfd >8 DR ! DR /026 88$> 0>$63& 3=6 ?$8

L`gdvl Mvdtfr 8$3 [r$ Dt{$ 02 B2 ! B% /086 00?$6 ?$32& 02; 0$8

Dfw~`re Rf{avrkf{ =$326 [r$ [vb$ Dt{$ >7 B2 ! B /026 0>0$= ?$2>& 0=? >$0

^rhkf


13/2902

Dartmfrd Acc{marf Ito$ -DAC(

**[_RADGF[_ BVX **: /0?; LL 0>& [r$ Datf{ >6

Acc{marf Orhiihdg Rhg{ # C^C Rf{trvktvrhdg Chdìhzfo E^LG `{ ^rash{hadì Ihpvho`tar rfkfdtix `ddavdkfo `

rf{trvktvrhdg ~i`d tm`t whii ~rashof V[O # DAE [r$ Datfmaiofr{ -/03; LL( 8=& acDFWKA{ fpvhtx `do f}h{thdg {m`rfmaiofr{ 2&$ V[O Datfmaiofr{ -0>{( whii rfkfhsf/0? LL k`{m ~`xlfdt car tmf k`dkfii`thad ac ` gv`r`dtff$

Wf shfw DAC `{ f}kfiifdt ~i`tcarl car grawtm tm`t h{ ofbt,crff whtm /0? LL hd k`{m

Krf`thdg kal~`dx `t 3} I_L FBH_O@ -/2? LL( `do ;$7} >6F -/?> LL( FBH_O@ s{$ 0>,06} FBH_O@ car kal~`r`bif{

[trfdgtmfdhdg o`xr`tf{ {v~~art bv{hdf{{ car tmf Fdfrgx [f`rkm -Orhii{mh~() Dartmfrd

^raovkfr -Cia`thdg ^raovkthad î`tcarl() `do Gì`}x Orhiifr -kaio {t`kefo( Hllfoh`tf K`tìx{t , F}~fkt _ìh{l`d Fdfrgx -_IL( ta f}tfdo D$ ^raovkfr kadtr`kt

-f}~hrfo 0!3!>6 `do kadthdvf{ ta a~fr tf( `t /006e o`xr`tf whtm 2 ta ;,xf`r tfrl `dogfdfr`tf `~~ra}hl`tfix /26 ll hd `ddvì FBH_O@


14/29

0;

_HSFR_AD

[_RADG BVX: /;3; LL 8& ^`{{ _mrv Kfrt$ 0=

Kì~hdf ^rajfkt Ofbt 2 D`tG`{ Dartmf`{t Gfdfr thdg î`dt{ [IAB , 0{t Ihfd â{hthad ad _wa Dartmf`{t gfdfr`thad `{{ft{ `do Kar~$ If`{f

Gv`r`dtff

Pvìhtx Gfdfr`thad @{{ft{ _atì ?80 LW{ Batm b`{fiaò D`tG`{ ~i`dt{ whtm7)>>> mf`t r`tf:

_HSFR_AD , _hsfrtad) Rmaof H{i`do -2?> LW(5 RVLCARO , Rvlcaro) L`hdf -260 LW(

[fic,@larthzhdg ?,xf`r ovr thad) 6,xf`r `sg$ ihcf

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00$6& xhfio hd war{t,k`{f,{kfd`rha hd wmhkm K^D chif{ BE hd 2>>=

_hsfrtad `do Rvlcaro a~fr`tfo `t =>& `do 7>& K`~`khtx C`ktar{ hd 2>>;)rf{~fkthsfix


15/29

0?

[_RADG BVX: /026 LL 0>$=76& [r$ Datf{ 2!>6

Rfchdhdg # L`refthdg

Hllfoh`tf K`tìx{t 2!0!>6 L tvrhtx

V~o`tf ^fd{had [fttifo car /?6 ll s{ /33 ll f{thl`tf `do ^`{òfd`[aio car /?2 ll) hd ihdf whtm avr f{thl`tf

Rfl`hdhdg @{{ft{ , _xifr rfchdfrx `do krvof ahi `do ~raovkt{ hd hdsfdtarx

Wf f}~fkt ~`rthì rfchd`dkhdg ac tmf [r$ Datf{ `do!ar Krvof Ahi^rakf{{hdg @glt$

Krf`thdg tmf rfchdhdg `{{ft{ `t `ttr`kthsf sìv`thad -/;;!Kal~if}htx Bbi`do 2$0} >?F FBH_O@(

Crff K`{m Ciaw /07 ll 2M>?F CKC

Krawd Kfdtrì ^ftraifvl -RA[FLA(


16/29

06

[fhtfi Hdk$ -[FI@(

[_RADG BVX: /08;LL 00$76& [r$ Datf{ 00

V[ I`do [fh{lhk ^rakf{{ar Rfi`thsf Xhfio î`x Dad,Kìi) 0>$2& %3;> b~{ tm`t kavio ga ta 0;> hc [FI@ wfrf `kpvhrfo

bx i`rgf ahi {frshkf fdthtx

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[tradg Kasfd`dt{ 6>& CKC k`{m ciaw {wff~ `t Datfmaiofr{ a~thad) /36 ll K`~F}rf{trhkthad

Mfìtmx Chd`dkhì Rf{vit{: /=7 LL I_L K`{m FBH_O@

F}kfiifdt Krfoht [t`th{thk{:

0$6} Dft Ofbt Ifsfr`gf ;$=} Hdtfrf{t Kasfr`gf -Darlìhzfo ta `kkt$ car mhgmfr ;P>? Hdtfrf{t F}~fd{f ovf ta

BE(

Hdkrf`{hdg F#^ Bvogft{ F}~fkt %06,2>& XaX K`~F} ta bfdfcht [FI@ hd 2>>6


17/29

03

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18/29

07

V[ Rhg Kavdt Ahi!G`{ Lh}

Rhg Kavdt) V$[$ Ahi!G`{ Lh} -B`efr Mvgmf{(

6>>

0)>>>

0)6>>

2)>>>

2)6>>

8; 8? 86 83 87 8= 88 >> >0 >2 >; >?

Ahi G`{ Lh{kfii`dfav{

D`tG`{ orhiihdg rfl`hd{ F#^ cakv{) mawfsfr) wf {mavio ahi

bfkalf i`rgfr kal~adfdt whtm mhgmfr krvof ~rhkf{


19/29

0=

D`tvr`i G`{ [tar`gf

@{ rf{vit ac D`tG`{ orhiihdg cakv{) D`tG`{ {tar`gf %7& -%080

BKC( XaX `do %6& -%066 BKC( kal~`rfo ta 6,Xr$ @sg$

Wf f}~fkt D`tG`{ ta ora~ ta bfiaw /6!Lkc hd tmf df`r,tfrlcral ht{ kvrrfdt /7%

D`tvr`i G`{ [tar`gf -BKC(

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WE0 WE= WE06 WE22 WE28 WE;3 WE?; WE6>

2>>> 2>>0 2>>2 2>>; 2>>? 6,Xr @sg$ tmrv 2>>;


20/29

08

_mf Oh{kaddfkt

[fh{lhk Krfw{ ~ivllftfo ta ?=0 hd 2>>;) ,28& XaX) ,;;& s{$2>>0 `do tmf iawf{t {hdkf tmf {t`th{thk bfg`d bfhdg rfkarofo hd0877

Whiok`t{ wfii{ `rf 22& cral 2>>0 `do ,6?& cral 088>

Rfkaro Ahi # G`{ ^rhkf{) xft lftrhk{ ~ahdt ta ofkihdhdg V[

f}~iar`thad `kthshtx:


21/29

2>

V[ Acc{marf Orhiihdg

Rhg Kavdt , Acc{marf Adix

2>

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3>

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22/29

20

^fè Xf`r Lhif{tadf{

08)730

/;0$77

/;0$77

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F}~iar`tarx Wfii{ Orhiifo 08=0 07)?;>

Ahi Wfii{ Orhiifo 08=? ??)?72

G`{ Wfii{ Orhiifo 2>>0 22)27>

Orx Maif{ Orhiifo 08=0 23)872

_atì Wfii{ Orhiifo 08=0 =8)2;?

^raovkhdg Ahi Wfii{ 08=6 3?3)323^raovkhdg G`{ Wfii{ 2>>2 ;67)600

Orhiihdg Ka{t{ -/_rhiihad( 08=2 /;8

Krvof Ahi raovkthad ->>>'{!b~o( 087> 22)3?=

[trh~~fr Wfii raovkthad ->>>'{!b~o( 08=; ??0)6>0

^ftraifvl Hl~art{ ->>>'{!b~o( 2>>0 00)=70^ftraifvl Ofl`do ->>>'{!b~o( 2>>2

D`tvrì G`{ raovkthad -BKC( 087; 22)3?=D`tvrì G`{ Kad{vl~thad -BKC( 2>>> 2;);3=

D`tvrì G`{ Hl~art{ -BKC( 2>>2 ?)>>=

Ahi Wfiimfò rhkf -/!Bbi( 08=0

G`{ Wfiimfò rhkf -/!Lkc( 08=0

_atì Hdov{trx Fl~iaxlfdt -LL( 08=0 0$8

^fè Xf`r Lhif{tadf{

ìi akkvrrfo hd tmf f`rix08=>{ f}kf~t carofl`do,{hof o`t`)wmhkm wf {`w ~fè hd

2>>2


23/29

22

_mf Rf{vit , Ofkihdhdg ^raovkthad

2>>; _atì ^raovkthad: ,>$7& XaX `do 0$8& {hdkf 2>>> `do

asfr 06& cral tmf ~fè hd 0878 XaX D`tG`{ ^raovkthad %>$7&) mawfsfr) Ihpvho{ 2$;&

V[ Ihpvho{ # G`{ ^raovkthad -LLBAFÔ(

6

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06

2>

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LBAFÔ

D`tG`{ ^raovkthad -BAF~o(

Ahi ^raovkthad -LBÔ(


24/29

2;

[tr`dofo D`tG`{ ta L`reft

IDG {mhcthdg L`jar{ cakv{) `b`doadhdg Dartm @lfrhk` ta cakv{

ad [tr`dofo G`{

L`jar{ m`sf bhggf{t hdkfdthsf ta cakv{ ad brhdghdg {tr`dofog`{ ta l`reft

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F}~fkt {mhct ac Dartm @lfrhk`d ~ra~frthf{ cral L`jar{ ta tmfHdof~fdofdt F#^{


25/29

2?

K`~`khtx ta F}~`do

MX F#^{ â{hthadfo car Sìvf Krf`thad , L#@ `do Orhiihdg:

/7$; hd _atì Ihpvhohtx: K`{m /0$2 B % /3$0 B @s`hi`bif

FBH_O@: /;$> B Rfkfdt Pv`rtfr

I_L FBH_O@ ta~~fo ` rfkaro /0>$2 B

Mfìtmx Krfoht [t`th{thk{ ~rashof `{{ft f}~`d{had:

2$?} _atì Ofbt Ifsfr`gf ! 0>$2} K`{m Hdtfrf{t Kasfr`gf

?6& _atì Ofbt!Baae K`~


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L#@ F#^ Fsfdt Orhsfr

Mfoghdg Orhsf{ L#@ F}~fkt mhgm `kthshtx ifsfi ovf ta {~rfò

bftwffd carw`ro kvrsf `do ~vrkm`{f ~rhkf{) ìiawhdg F#^{ ta iake,hd sìvf `do {v~~art krfoht ~rachif{

Fsfdt K`tìx{t{ , _èfavt{ whii trhggfr l`jar k`~htì g`hd{ hd dad,kìi F#^ ~`~fr Kìiad) Fi ^`{a ^raovkthad) FÎ) L`gdvl Mvdtfr)

Lh{{had) R`dgf) `do [whct `rf `ladg avr c`sarhtf tèfavt hof`{

Bft ad tmf Iawfr Pvìhtx D`lf{ , Mhgmfr ka{t) iawfr pvìhtxd`lf{ whii bf bhggf{t g`hdfr{ ovf ta rfkaro CKC g`hd{ `do `bhihtx tamfogf `t rfkaro mhgm ~rhkf{

Hdov{trx{ Hl~rasfo Mfìtm Rfi`thsfix iaw k`~htì ka{t{) mhgm{take sìvf{ `{ kvrrfdkx) `do hllfd{f ihpvhohtx hl~rasflfdt{ whiiorhsf L#@ `do baa{t `{{ft sìv`thad{


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23

Rfchdhdg Rfghadì Kr`ke [~rfò{

DXLF] ;,2,0 Kr`ke [~rfò{

/2

/?

/3

/=

/0>

/02

/0?

/03

/0=

/2>

0882 088; 088? 0886 0883 0887 088= 0888 2>>> 2>>0 2>>2 2>>; 2>>?

/!Bbi

Wf{t Ka`{t

LhoWf{t

Gvic Ka`{t

Rfchdfrx [v~~art , I`ke ac K`~htì ta v~gròf rfchdfrhf{ ta rvd

kmf`~fr) mf`shfr) `do mhgmfr [vicvr ahi Mhgm Ka{t ~raovkfr{ [ft Kr`ke [~rfò{ , Rfchdhdg k`~`khtx

ofkihdf{ ovf ta F^@{ Iaw [vicvr Kadtfdt rfpvhrflfdt{


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27

Rfchdhdg D`thadwhof [~`re [~rfò{

Kvlvi`thsf DXLF] ;,2,0 Kr`ke [~rfò{

/6

/0>

/06

/2>

/26

/;>

/;6

/?>

0882 088; 088? 0886 0883 0887 088= 0888 2>>> 2>>0 2>>2 2>>; 2>>?

/!Bbi

Gvic Ka`{t

LhoWf{t

Wf{t Ka`{t

D`thadwhof Kr`ke [~rfò{ `~~f`r ta m`sf battalfo hd 2>>2$

_ìe ac chr{t dfw rfchdfrx {hdkf 0873) ~i`ddfo ta bf kal~iftfobx 2>>8 hd @rhzad`) `kkf{{hdg Kìhcardh` l`reft


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Jefferies-High Yield-Energy & Power Presentation-Jan 2005-Greg Imbruce

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