Jeffrey J. Siirola Purdue University Carnegie Mellon University
Driven in previous decades by materials substitution
Products derived mostly from methane, ethane, propane, aromatics – in turn derived from petroleum and natural gas
Likely driven in the future by GDP growth Supply/demand displacements have affected the
relative cost and availability of some raw materials – leading to the consideration of alternatives
Region
2000 Pop,M pcGDP,k$
2025 Pop,M pcGDP,k$
2050 Pop,M pcGDP,k$
North America 306 30.6 370 40 440 50
Latin America 517 6.7 700 20 820 35
Europe 727 14.7 710 30 660 40
Africa 799 2.0 1260 12 1800 25
Asia 3716 3.6 4760 20 5310 35
World 6065 6.3 7800 20 9030 33
Region
2000 Prod
2000-25 Growth New Plant %Tot
2025-50 Growth New Plant %Tot
North America 1.0 0.6 5 0.8 5
Latin America 0.4 1.1 9 1.6 10
Europe 1.1 1.1 9 0.5 4
Africa 0.2 1.5 12 3.2 21
Asia 1.4 8.2 65 9.3 60
World 4.1 12.6 15.4
Much slower growth in the developed world Accelerating growth in the developing world World population stabilizing at 9-10 billion 6-7 X world GDP growth over next 50 or so years
(in constant dollars) 5-6 X existing production capacity for most
commodities (steel, chemicals, lumber, etc.) 3.5 X increase in energy demand ◦ 7X increase in electricity demand
Environmental Protection Health and Safety Energy Efficiency Product Stewardship Corporate Citizenship Triple Bottom Line Renewable Energy Water Management Biomass Feedstocks National Security Climate Change
Industrial Ecology Life Cycle Analysis Green Chemistry Benign by Design Waste Minimization Watershed Protection Pollution Prevention Low Energy Separations Carbon Trading Clean Products Systems Analysis
Availability Accessibility Concentration Cost of extraction (impact, resources) Competition for material Alternatives "Close" in chemical or physical structure "Close" in oxidation state
-4 Methane -2 Hydrocarbons, Alcohols, Oil -1 Aromatics, Lipids 0 Carbohydrates, Coal +2 Carbon Monoxide +4 Carbon Dioxide
-2 – -0.5 Most polymers -1.5 – 0 Most oxygenated organics
Met
hane
Eth
ane
Eth
ylen
e, P
olye
thyl
ene
Nat
ural
Gas
Oil
Coa
l C
arbo
hydr
ates
Pol
ysty
rene
, Pol
yvin
ylch
lorid
e
Pol
yest
er
Ace
tic A
cid
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Car
bon
Mon
oxid
e
Met
hano
l, E
than
ol
Ace
tone
E
thyl
ene
Gly
col,
Eth
yl A
ceta
te
Gly
cerin
, Phe
nol
Lim
esto
ne
Ene
rgy
of F
orm
atio
n
-4 -2 0 +2 +4 +4 (salt) Oxidation State
Recoverable Gas Reserves – 95 GTC Recoverable Oil Reserves – 120 GTC Recoverable Coal – 925 GTC Estimated Oil Shale – 225 GTC Estimated Tar Sands – 250 GTC Estimated Remaining Fossil (at future higher price / yet-
to-be-developed technology) – 2500 GTC Possible Methane Hydrates – ????? GTC Terrestrial Biomass – 500 GTC Peat and Soil Carbon – 2000 GTC ◦ Annual Terrestrial Biomass Production – 60 GTC/yr (more than half in tropical forest and tropical savanna) ◦ Fossil Fuel Consumption – 7.0 GTC/yr ◦ Organic Chemical Production – 0.3 GTC/yr
Atmospheric CO2 (385ppmv) – 750 GTC Estimated Oceanic Inorganic Carbon (30ppm) –
40000 GTC Estimated Limestone/Dolomite/Chalk –
100000000 GTC
Met
hane
Eth
ane
Eth
ylen
e, P
olye
thyl
ene
Nat
ural
Gas
Oil
Coa
l
Car
bohy
drat
es
Pol
ysty
rene
, Pol
yvin
ylch
lorid
e
Pol
yest
er
Ace
tic A
cid
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Car
bon
Mon
oxid
e
Car
bona
te
Met
hano
l, E
than
ol
Ace
tone
E
thyl
ene
Gly
col,
Eth
yl A
ceta
te
Gly
cerin
, Phe
nol
Con
dens
ate
Pro
pane
Lim
esto
ne
Gas
olin
e
The most abundant (carbonate)? The one for which a "renewable" process exists for part
of the required endothermic oxidation state change (atmospheric carbon dioxide via biomass)?
The one likely to co-produce the most energy in addition to final product (natural gas)?
The one likely least contaminated (methane or condensate)?
The one most similar in molecular weight or structure (oil or perhaps biomass)?
A compromise: abundant, close oxidation state, easily removed contaminants, and generally dry (coal)?
As methane, condensate, and light crude become depleted, feedstocks for both transportation fuels and chemicals will become heavier and higher oxidation state
Hydrogen will be required to reduce these feedstocks ◦ If derived as at present from steam reforming, will result in significant
additional carbon dioxide production ◦ Unless derived from solar or nuclear water-splitting
Processes will become net endothermic Reaction energy and separation/purification energy both to be supplied
from utilities
Process industries become much more energy-intensive Greater role for heat integration, multi-effect operation, low-energy
separations, process intensification technologies, etc.
By a factor of 105, most accessible carbon atoms on the earth are in the highest oxidation state
However, there is plenty of available carbon in lower oxidation states closer to that of most desired chemical products ◦ High availability and the existence of photosynthesis does
not argue persuasively for starting from carbonate or CO2 (via biomass) as the raw material for most of the organic chemistry industry ◦ But, the same might not necessarily be true for fuels,
especially if CO2 capture is not feasible or practical
Quads Percent GTC
Approximately 1/3 transportation, 1/3 electricity, 1/3 everything else (industrial, home heating, etc.)
Oil 150 40 3.5
Natural Gas 85 22 1.2
Coal 88 23 2.3
Nuclear 25 7
Hydro 27 7
Solar 3 1
Region 2000 2025 2050
North America 90 100 120
Latin America 35 80 150
Europe 110 110 130
Africa 15 60 200
Asia 135 450 900
World 385 800 1500
Total energy demand – 1500 Quads New electricity capacity – 5000 GW ◦ One new world-scale 1000 MW powerplant every three
days ◦ Or 1000 square miles new solar cells per year
Clean water for 9 billion people Carbon emissions growing from 7 GTC/yr to 26
GTC/yr ◦ Or more, if energy-rich (carbon-lean) methane
exhausted ◦ Or more, if synthetic fuels are derived from energy-lean
coal or biomass
At 395ppm, 2.2 GTC/yr more carbon dioxide dissolves in the ocean than did at the preindustrial revolution level of 280ppm
Currently, about 0.3 GTC/yr is being added to soil carbon and to terrestrial biomass inventory (including impact of changing agricultural and land management practices)
The balance results in ever increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (+2ppm/yr)
Even with substantial lifestyle, conservation, and energy efficiency improvements, global energy demand is likely to more than triple within fifty years
There is an abundance of fossil fuel sources and they will be exploited especially within developing economies
Atmospheric addition of even a few GTC/yr of carbon dioxide is not sustainable
In the absence of a sequestration breakthrough, reliance on fossil fuels is not sustainable
Environmental protection measures of unprecedented magnitude may be mandated
Carbon Dioxide Capture Carbon Dioxide Storage Reduce Carbon Dioxide Production Offset Carbon Dioxide Production
Capture from low partial pressure point sources – fluegas ◦ Alcoholamines ◦ Chilled ammonia ◦ Caustic or lime ◦ Carbonate ◦ Zeolite adsorption ◦ Active transport membranes ◦ Anti-sublimation
Capture from high partial pressure point sources – gasifiers ◦ Rectisol ◦ Selexol ◦ Metal oxides
Collect from sources without nitrogen ◦ Oxygen-fired furnaces, kilns, or turbines (oxyfuel)
Capture from mobile sources ◦ Lithium hydroxide ◦ Polymer amines ◦ Molecular sieves
Collect from atmosphere by scrubbing ◦ Caustic ◦ Anion exchange resins ◦ Optimized reactive sorbent
Collect from atmosphere by growing biomass ◦ Cultivated crops, plantation forest, algae ponds ◦ Natural aquatic and terrestrial vegetation and forests
Geologic (as pressurized gas, supercritical liquid, or carbonic acid; +4 oxidation state) ◦ Porous capped rock (with or without oil recovery) ◦ Coal beds (with or without methane displacement) ◦ Deep saline aquifer
Oceanic (+4 oxidation state) ◦ Ocean disposal (as carbonic acid) ◦ Deep ocean disposal with hydrate formation ◦ Ocean disposal with limestone neutralization (as
bicarbonate solution)
Land disposal as carbonate salt (+4 oxidation state) ◦ Reaction with silicate
Ocean sinking of biomass (0 oxidation state) ◦ Fertilized ocean (iron or nitrogen) ◦ Cultivated terrestrial biomass (crops, grasses, trees, algae) ◦ Uncultivated terrestrial biomass
Land burial of biomass (0 oxidation state) ◦ Terrestrial burial of cultivated biomass and residues ◦ Terrestrial burial of uncultivated biomass ◦ Pyrolysis and separate disposition of liquors and biochar
Land burial of recovered biological and chemical products ◦ Used paper and lumber products ◦ Municipal solid waste ◦ Scrap or recovered chemical products (e.g., polymers)
Post-combustion (low partial pressure, strength, purity, and stability of sorbent) ◦ Chemsorption (hydroxides, amines, carbonates) ◦ Physical sorption (alcohols) ◦ Phase change (anti-sublimation) ◦ Membrane
Pre-combustion (gasification capital) Oxy-combustion (air separation expense)
Energy required to recover CO2 and regenerate
sorbent
Enhanced oil recovery Coalbed methane displacement Depleted reservoirs Saline aquifers Ocean disposal (without or with neutralization) Pipeline transportation network Leak monitoring and mitigation
Compression and injection energy
Flue Gas With 90% CO2
Removal Stripper
Flue Gas In
Rich Solvent
CO2 for Transport & Storage
LP Steam
Absorber
Lean Solvent
Use 30% of power plant output
35
Reduce energy usage ◦ Produce less product (change product portfolio) ◦ Decrease energy use per unit of production (process
improvement) ◦ Recover and reuse energy (process intensification and
heat integration)
Switch to a more energy-intense fossil source for fuel and feedstock ◦ Switch from oil to gas ◦ Switch from coal to gas
Biomass ◦ Growth depends on latitude and rainfall (and soil) ◦ Land competition with agricultural use ◦ Low energy density – high transportation costs
Solar (photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind, etc) ◦ Low source intensity – high capital costs ◦ Variable availability
Nuclear ◦ No experience with nuclear process heat ◦ Shutdowns for refueling ◦ Siting concerns
Fuel swapping (natural gas for coal) Conversion to non-fossil energy sources
(nuclear, solar, or biomass) Reduce energy requirements ◦ Use less energy-intensive chemistry/unit operations ◦ Increase heat and power integration ◦ Operate processes with additional objective to
minimize energy consumption
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Energy conservation ◦ Easier to justify with expansions rather than retrofits ◦ Equipment capital costs rise linearly with energy costs
Fuel switching ◦ Limited gas availability and gas pipeline capacity ◦ Coal boiler derating when fired with gas ◦ Relocation to inexpensive stranded gas results in
expensive product transportation costs
Most plants do not monitor energy consumption on an individual unit operations basis, but only total plant usage for accounting purposes
Processes may be designed for energy efficiency, but do not include degrees of freedom and manipulated variables to minimize energy utilization during operations
Schemes control for desired throughput and product fitness-for-use attributes (composition, purity, color, etc.), but use utilities (energy) to achieve these goals and to reject disturbances
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The same is also true for many other sustainability dimensions ◦ Environmental impact minimization ◦ Raw material and other resource use efficiency ◦ Customer and stakeholder value ◦ Health and safety ◦ Climate change
We consider sustainability attributes when
selecting and optimizing among alternatives during design, but rarely control for these same objectives during operations
Intensified application of manufacturing intelligence using advanced sensors, modeling, and very large scale simulation
Encompasses the technology, interoperability, operational practice, and shared business infrastructure on which manufacturing intelligence can be generated and applied to multiple sustainability objectives including economic, energy, environment, health, safety and other performance metrics
View sustainability as objectives to be optimized rather than simply as regulatory constraints
Many more sensors and monitors Massive computing infrastructure Real-time error detection and data reconciliation
and very large scale dynamic simulation Engineering modifications to increase
operational degrees of freedom Optimized control of energy consumption,
environmental impact, and other sustainability objectives in addition to production rate, quality, and fitness-for-use product objectives
Monitoring of every individual utility consumption point
Active control of individual tray hydraulics at incipient flood for maximum efficiency
Hard and soft sensors for improved real-time modeling (e.g., Dzyacky flooding predictor based on pressures, temperatures, levels, flow rates)
Natural gas is the fuel that powers most (but not quite all) US chemical and refining processes
Natural gas methane is the feedstock for hydrogen production (for hydrocracking, hydrodesulfurization, and ammonia) and for syngas (for methanol, and its derivatives e.g. MTBE, formaldehyde, and acetic acid)
Natural gas condensate (ethane and propane) was an advantaged raw material via ethylene and propylene to much of the organic chemicals industry (compared to crude-oil-derived naphtha)
Chemicals from methane ◦ Methanol production moves offshore to sources of stranded
gas ◦ MTBE abandoned as gasoline oxygenate ◦ Ammonia moves to Canada ◦ Hydrogen becomes expensive (and low-sulfur diesel at the
pump becomes more expensive than regular gasoline)
Chemicals from condensate and naphtha ◦ Condensate price rises with natural gas (for awhile) ◦ Ethylene price spikes ◦ Propylene price finally rises higher than ethylene
Shut down older cracker capacity Abandon some ethylene derivatives (polyethylene)
and seek C1 routes to others (ethylene glycol, acetaldehyde) as previously done for acetic acid/anhydride)
Abandon polypropylene Seek C1 routes to propylene (MTP) for existing oxo
derivatives and other intermediates currently made from propylene (acrylics, methacrylics, acetone, etc)
Developed process for the large-scale gasification of petcoke, lignite, or coal as source of syngas for C1 chemistries and refinery hydrogen
Flight to off-shore production (to sources of stranded methane and condensate - Persian Gulf)
Bio-based feedstocks (ethylene from sugar-based bioethanol dehydration - Brazil)
Feedstocks from coal gasification and liquefaction (China)
Calls for increased LNG infrastructure Development of directional and horizontal
drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies (Shale Gas)
Unconventional natural gas (as is coalbed methane, tight sandstone gas, and methane hydrates)
Found in relatively thin shale formations of very low permeability
Economic production enabled by two technological innovations: ◦ Directional drilling ◦ Hydraulic fracturing
Technology and field development encouraged by high natural gas prices
Shale gas now reclassified as conventional gas North American conventional gas reserves doubled Price of natural gas (compared to oil) dropped by 80%
Accelerate electric power fuel switching from coal to
natural gas Killed many proposed gasification projects Restored US production of methanol and ammonia Condensate crackers restarted Restored advantaged North American feedstock position
for many organic chemicals
Natural gas replacement for coal as the primary early carbon management technique (source reduction)
Increased deployment of highly efficient Natural Gas Combined Cycle plants for electricity production and chemical plant cogeneration
Increased US production and export of chemicals decreasing the trade deficit
For many intermediates, interesting competition between C1 (methane) and C2 (ethane) feedstocks resulting from advances in catalysis, energy efficiency, and process design optimization
Electricity power plant fuel switching could dominate the rate of shale gas development
Amount of gas producible from shale formations might be less than predicted
Additional shale formations might be more expensive to produce than first experiences suggest
Some shale formations might be geologically inappropriate for development (e.g. shallow formations near groundwater supplies)
Production technologies (especially hydraulic fracturing) might have unintended environmental consequences leading to political or regulatory restrictions
Depends on how long shale gas remains plentiful and whether it is wet or dry
If plentiful and wet, then the existing North American ethane-based chemical industry infrastructure will remain world-competitive
If plentiful but dry, new C1 chemistries will emerge, but based on methane steam reforming syngas
If successfully extended to oil shale development, the role for naphtha cracking infrastructure may be extended
If a great deal of infrastructure is put in place to displace coal by natural gas for electricity production and for institutional and industrial boilers and to otherwise expand the use of methane for chemical production,
But natural gas becomes less economically advantaged compared to coal…
Then coal gasification may once again return, But if so, most likely only to make Synthetic Natural Gas
(SNG)! ◦ With the corresponding carbon dioxide captured and sequestered