Jeffrey S. PasselPew Hispanic Center
Washington, DC
New Patterns inUS Immigration, 2011:Uncertainty for Reform
Immigration Reform:Implications for Farmers, Farm Workers, and Communities
University of California, DC – Washington, DC – 12-13 May 2011
Immigration Today
• Growth of Immigrant Population-- Overall Growth Stopped ’07 to mid-’10-- No Unauthorized Growth since ’06-- Mexican Increase Stopped (maybe?)
• Unauthorized Pop Down Slightly-- HUGE Drop in New Unauthorized-- Legal Immigration Levels Still High-- No Evidence of Increased Out-Flows
• Key Characteristics of Unauthorized-- Families with Children-- Geographic Dispersal
Source: Tabulations of monthly Current Population Surveys; 2000-2008 surveys use consistent,alternative weights developed by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel and Cohn, 2010).
Foreign-Born Grew Steadily thru Apr. ‘07Plateau thru Apr. ’10, but New Growth
29.4
22
26
30
34
38
01-96 01-97 01-98 01-99 01-00 01-01 01-02 01-03 01-04 01-05 01-06 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11
'90-based
'00-based
Foreign-Born Population from Monthly CPS (in millions)—3 mo Moving Average
Dec. ’1038.6 Million
April 2007 & April 201037.1 Million
31%28%
37%4%
Legal Permanent
Resident (LPR)
Aliens
12.4 million
Temporary Legal
Residents
~1.5 million
Unauthorized
Immigrants
11.2 million
40.2 Million Foreign-Born in 2010
Legal Status of Immigrants
Naturalized
Citizens
(former LPRs)
14.9 million
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Grew RapidlyThru 2007 – Declines Since
3.9
4
3 3.3
5
2.5
12.0(2007)
11.1(2005)8.4
Millions of Unauthorized Immigrants Living in the U.S.
4-80 6-891-82 6-86 10-9610-92 4-00 3-05 3-10
Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).and compilations of earlier estimates from multiple sources, many by Passel and colleagues.
Peak in ‘07 but No Change ‘09 to ‘10Unauthorized population (millions)
* Change from previous yearsignificant at 90%
Underlined figures show nosignificant change.
11.211.1
8.4
10.4*
9.4
11.311.6
9.3*
9.7
11.1*
12.0*
7
10
13
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‘07
6.56.7
4.6
6.0*
5.2*
6.5
6.8
4.8
5.5
6.3
7.0*
4
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Unauthorized population (millions)
* Change from previous yearsignificant at 90%
Underlined figures show nosignificant change.
Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
OtherLatin America -- 24%
2.6 million
Africa & Other -- 3%0.3 million
Europe &Canada -- 4%
0.5 million
Asia & Mid-East -- 11%
1.3 million
Mexico -- 58%6.5 million
Mexico is Largest Sourceof Unauthorized, by Far
11.2 Million in March 2010Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data
on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
OtherLatin America
23%6.7 million
Africa & Other -- 5%
1.4 million
Europe &Canada -- 18%
5.2 million
Asia & Mid-East -- 34%
9.8 million
Mexico -- 20%5.8 million
Mexico is Largest Countryfor Legal Immigrants, Too
28.9 Million in March 2010Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data
on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Focus onMexico
Key Features of Migration• Mexican Population in U.S.
-- Rapid Build-Up begins in 1970s through 2007-- Growth Stops after 2007 (10% in US)-- Possible Increase in Late 2010-- Unauthorized Numbers Peak in 2007
• Flows into U.S. -- Upward Trend in Late ‘90s; Peak ca. ’99-’01-- Drop and Increase Tied to Employment -- Flows Plummet After ’07-- Slight Rebound in 2010 (?)
• Other Features-- Role of Enforcement Uncertain-- Return Flows Have NOT Increased-- Family & Geographic Options Keep Folks in US
Mexicans in US Plateau (Sep ’07-May ‘10)New Growth Surge in Late 2010
3,787
8,014
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
01-96 01-97 01-98 01-99 01-00 01-01 01-02 01-03 01-04 01-05 01-06 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11
'90-based
'00-based
Mexican-Born Population Entering ‘90 or later (in 000s)—3 mo Moving Average
Sep 2007 & May 20107.5 Million
Source: Tabulations of monthly Current Population Surveys; 2000-2008 surveys use consistent,alternative weights developed by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel and Cohn, 2010).
Annual Flows,the Economy
& Enforcement
Surprise Gains in Employment byMexican Immigrants Since March 2010
10.3%9.3%
4.0%
10.3%
6.7%
13.6% 14.3%
8.9%
4.4%
6.3%7.4%
5.1%
9.4%
4.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Percent Unemployed — 3 mo. Moving Average
U.S. Natives
Mexican-BornEntered US ’90 or Later
Source: Tabulations from Current Population Surveys, January 2000 to October 2010.
177
100
608
241
0
200
400
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
90%
92%
94%
96%
Mexican In-Flows Follow US Employment;Flows Up in ‘10(?) with Some Improvements
% Employedof LF
Peak Start
Mexico-U.S.Migration
Annual Immigration(in 000s)
U.S EmploymentRate
Source: Estimates from March CPS, American Community Surveys, and Census 2000developed by author. See Passel and Cohn 2009,, Passel and Suro 2005.
Inflow of Unauthorized Mexicans Drops Dramatically After ‘05
500
410
220 220
90
March '00-
March '05
March '05-
March '06
March '06-
March '07
March '07-
March '08
March '08-
March '09
Source: March 2009 CPS, augmented by Pew Hispanic Center
Average Annual Inflow of Unauthorized Mexicans (000s)
662
981
1,085
882
1,6371,523
1,000
1,169
100300
608
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Apprehensions of Mexicans at the Southern Border
(in thousands)
Border Apprehensions of MexicansTrack Flows, but at Higher Levels
Annual Mexican Immigration, from ACS Year of Arrivals
(in thousands)
-23%
Source: Immigration from previous chart; apprehensions fromYearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2009 (DHS 2010).
98% 95%100% 97%
27%31%
41%
28%
Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009
EventuallySucceeded
Apprehendedat Least Once
Apprehension Rate is Up, BUT…Virtually Everyone Gets In
Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.
Are MORE Mexicans Going Home?
Why? Or Why Not?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Annual Out Migration
Quarterly In-migration
Quarterly Out-Migration
Annual In-Migration
ENOE Shows Dropping Flows Out of Mexico
BUT Return Flows are Down, TooAnnual Migration Rate (per 1,000)
Out of and Into Mexico
Source: Encuesta Nacional del Ocupacion y Empleo from INEGI (www.inegi.gob.mx).
Why Aren’t More Leaving the US?
• Fear of Losing U.S. Job
• Situation in Mexico is No Better
• Border Enforcement-- Costly & Risky to Re-enter U.S.
• Integration into U.S. Society-- Families Increasingly Rooted in US-- U.S.-Born Children in School-- Social Networks in the U.S. -- Geographic Diversity gives Options
93%
54%
84%
56%
81%
72%
Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)
Unauthorized Mexicans
Legal Mexican-Born
All Natives
Unauthorized Mexican Men Work More;Women Work Much Less Than Others
Percent in Labor Force, 2010
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
46%
34%
21%
Unauthorized
Immigrant
Households
Legal Immigrant
Households
U.S. Native
Households
Unauthorized Immigrants More Likely To Be Couples with Children
Percent of Group’s Householdsthat are Couples with Children,
2010
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
1.7
0.3
1.71.5
0.3
0.4
Men without
Partners or
Children
Men with Partners
or Children
Women without
Partners or
Children
Women with
Partners or
Children
Without Children
With Children
Most Unauthorized MexicansAre Married or Have Children
Persons in UnauthorizedMexican Families, 2010
(millions)
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized FamiliesHave Mixed Composition
16.6 million in Unauthorized Families
UnauthorizedChildren
1.0 million9% of all
unauthorized
Other Adults—875,000
U.S. CitizenChildren
4.5 million81% of kids Adult Women
4.3 million42% of Adults
Adult Men5.9 million
58% of Adults
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
Unauthorized Mexican FamiliesHave Very Mixed Composition
10.4 million in Unauthorized Mexican Families
UnauthorizedChildren
0.6 million9% of all
unauthorized
Other Adults—525,000
U.S. CitizenChildren
3.3 million84% of kids
Adult Women2.4 million
40% of Adults
Adult Men3.6 million
60% of Adults
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
US-Born Children of Unauthorized Upbut Unauthorized Decrease
Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent, by Status, 2000-2010 (in millions)
1.1
1.5
2.1
4.5
Unauthorized ImmigrantChildren
U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Parent(s)
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; withdata on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Most Children of Unauthorized HaveMexican Parent(s)
Children with at Least One Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Parent,
by Status, 2000-2010 (in millions)
0.6
0.9
1.4
3.3
Unauthorized MexicanImmigrant Children
U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Mexican
Parent(s)
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; withdata on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
42%
13%10%
7%6%
3%6% 5% 5%
15%
7%
23%
40%
CA TX NY FL IL NJ All Other
1990 (3.5 million)
2010 (11.2 million)
Unauthorized Spreading Away From Big 6 States
Percent of Total Unauthorized Migrant Population
20% --700,000
4.5 Million
Source: Estimates for 2010 based on March 2010 Current Population Survey (Passel and Cohn, 2011); for 1990 from Warren , 2001 based on various sources.
Dispersal of Undocumented Population
Unauthorized Immigrants 2010(11.2 million)
1,650,000 – 2,550,000 (2)
140,000 – 325,000 (11)400,000 – 825,000 (6)
55,000 – 120,000 (16)
Less than 45,000 (16)Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS
(Passel and Cohn, 2011);
2010 Composition Categories (US=28%)
Highest % Undocumented (40-56% of foreign-born) (19)
Lower % Undocumented (21-28%) (11)
High % Undocumented (30-38%) (9)
Lowest % Undocumented (<20%) (12)
New Growth --> High % Undocumented
Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS(Passel and Cohn, 2011);
21
36
5 5
20
California Texas Arizona Illinois All Others
1990 (4.5 Million)
1996 (6.7 Million)
2010 (12.4 Million)
Mexicans Lead DiversificationPercent of U.S. Mexicans
58% -- 2.5 million
40% -- 4.9 million
31%
12% -- 0.5 million
3.8 Million
Source: Estimates for 1990 based on 1990 Census; for 1996, from March CPS;for 2010, from augmented March CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
SomeImpacts on
States
Unauthorized Workers Numbers andShares Increased through 2007
5.5
6.3 6.4 6.56.8
7.47.8
8.4 8.27.8 8.0
3.8%4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6%
5.0% 5.2%5.5% 5.3%
5.1% 5.2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Unauthorized immigrant workers
as share of labor force
Millions of
unauthorized immigrant workers
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; withdata on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
% Unauthorized of Labor Force, 2010
% Unauthorized of LF (US=5.2%)Very Highest (8.6%-10%) (4)
Below Average (2.0-3.9% (18)
Average (4.2%-5.6%) (12)
Above Average (6.1%-7.4%) (5)
Very Lowest (<1.7%) (12)Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS
(Passel and Cohn, 2011);
77.0%
5.0%1.8%
6.9%
16.1%13.3%
2.8%
U.S.-born parent Legal immigrant parent Unauthorized immigrant
parent
All children
US-born child
Immigrant child
1-in-15 of K-12 Students is theChild of an Unauthorized Immigrants
Percent of K-12
School Enrollment,
2010
Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).
% of K-12 Students w/ Unauth. Parents
% of K-12 Students with Unauthorized Parent(s)
(US=6.9% in 2010)
Very Highest (10%-18%) (5)
Well Below Average (2.0-3.5%) (11)
Below Average (3.8-6.4%) (15)
Average (6.7-7.6%) (7)
Very Lowest (<1.9%) (13)
18%
17%
10%
15%
13%
Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS(Passel and Cohn, 2011);
• Flows Down—Respond to Economy
• Enforcement May be Working-- Border Effectiveness Uncertain for Now-- Interior Laws Make Life Risky/Unpleasant
• Changing Age Structure in Mexico-- Smaller Birth Cohorts of ‘90s-- Fewer Labor Force Entrants Begin Now-- Lessening Pressure to Migrate
• Scale is Large (11 mil.) & Dispersed
• Networks & Culture Facilitate Flow
• Families, Not Just Individuals
What About the Future?
Thank You
Please E-mail or
Call Me at:
(202) 419-3625
www.pewhispanic.org
Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.Pew Hispanic CenterPew Research Center
1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036