Developing a safety risk model

Jesse Baker

Thursday 16th June

Crowne Plaza, Auckland

Who are RISSB?

• A non-profit company established in 2006 by the ARA

• RISSB: Australian Rail’s accredited standards development organisation

• ABSDO to produce Australian Standards

• 100% owned by the Rail Industry

• Government / industry funded

• ISO 9000 management architecture

• Responsible for the Australian Codes of Practice (ACOP)

• RISSB Standards are free to members

Why are RISSB interested in

a (safety) Risk Model?

What is a risk model?

• Measuring safety performance by the number if injuries

you have is like measuring parenting by the number of

smacks you give – Robert Long

• Simply a tool to help organisations understand (safety)

risk better

What’s in a risk model?

Fault

tree

Event

tree

Hazardous

event / top

event

Example of a fault tree

Example of a fault tree

(cont.)

What’s the latest news?

• We’ve written a basic prototype

• We modelled a derailments event

tree on part of the DIRN.

(thanks to Sydney Trains, ARTC, MTM, ONRSR and others)

#1#2

#3

#4#5

#6#7

Modelling the DIRN

The prototype – a sense of scale

• Written in Excel – 15 workbooks

• Train loadings

• Train speed

• Track kms

• Number of lines

• Protected/unprotected edges/drops

• Numbers of reinforced/unreinforced lineside objects

• 16 further escalation factors

o Does the train fall on its side?

o Does it collide with a structure?

o Does the structure collapse on the train?

o Does the train collide with adjacent train?

o Does the train spill hazardous goods?

• A total of 96 different scenarios

The prototype – a sense of scale (cont. items not modelled)

Crashworthiness of trains

Fire

Derailments in tunnels

Emergency Access

Time of Day

Guard Rails

ECS

Freight on Freight only lines

Works Trains

Hi Rail Trains

In Possession

Injuries to MOPs Near Derailment eg Station

Injuries to MOP due to haz goods spillage

Object in path of rail vehicle (embankment collapse)

Others

Safe

ty r

isk

wors

enin

g

Counterintuitive for the Nullabor.

For the prototype (event tree)

we’ve assumed a consistent rate

of derailments per track km.

Local, practical example - NWRL

But there’s more ‘latest news’

• On the 17th March the Board approved commencement

• If you’re a RISSB member, you’ll get access to the risk

model as a benefit of your membership

Current industry

safety information

architecture

• ON-S1 / OC-G1

• ON-S1 / OC-G1 + other items

• Basic analytical capability

• Sophisticated analytics

Proposed industry

information architecture

Procurement activity is underway

• Tender is live

• The RISSB Board will make decisions on supplier/s in

the coming weeks.

Project phases

• Phase 1

• Phase 2

Guiding principles

• The system will be produced:

– Collaboratively with all railway stakeholders

– Prioritising ease of information flows to and from the system

(without compromising robustness)

– To be governed by industry

Watch this space!

• We’ll soon be seeking input on the industry’s ‘needs’

and how we might interface with extant data sources

• But if you want to know more, don’t hesitate to email

jbaker@rissb.com.au

Thank you

Questions?