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Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second,...

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Jesusa C Beltran School of Agricultural Resource Economics Jessie obtained her Bachelor of Science in Business Administration and Master of Science in Agric lt ral Administration and Master of Science in Agricultural Economics from two of the most prestigious universities in the Philippines. She has more than 10 years of research experience in the economic aspect of rice farming systems experience in the economic aspect of rice farming systems, but is new to the area of weed-related research. She became interested in the economics of weed problems in rice crops when she joined a collaborative project funded by rice crops when she joined a collaborative project funded by ACIAR. Jessie’s PhD focuses on the economic analysis of weed management options in the rice production in the Philippines. Her research main contribution is a decision Philippines. Her research main contribution is a decision support program (DSS) that can help farmers make long- term decisions about the management of major weeds in their rice farms.
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Page 1: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Jesusa C BeltranSchool of Agricultural Resource Economics

Jessie obtained her Bachelor of Science in Business Administration and Master of Science in Agric lt ralAdministration and Master of Science in Agricultural

Economics from two of the most prestigious universities in the Philippines. She has more than 10 years of research

experience in the economic aspect of rice farming systemsexperience in the economic aspect of rice farming systems, but is new to the area of weed-related research. She

became interested in the economics of weed problems in rice crops when she joined a collaborative project funded byrice crops when she joined a collaborative project funded by ACIAR. Jessie’s PhD focuses on the economic analysis of

weed management options in the rice production in the Philippines. Her research main contribution is a decisionPhilippines. Her research main contribution is a decision support program (DSS) that can help farmers make long-term decisions about the management of major weeds in

their rice farms.

Page 2: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Economic analysis of weed management options in rice production in the Philippines

Jesusa C. Beltran

Supervisors:W/Prof David Pannell

R /A t/P f G D lRes/Asst/Prof Graeme DooleProf Benedict White

Page 3: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Outline

Background

Overview of RIMPhil model

RIMPhil standard resultsRIMPhil standard results

Future research activities

Page 4: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

BackgroundDevelopment

f h bi idof herbicide resistance

Lack of labor

availability Shifts from HERBICIDE

USE

ytransplanted

to direct-seeded rice

Weed shifts

seeded riceIncreased labor cost

E iEnvironment and health

impact

Page 5: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Background

Implications on weed management

f d t IWM farmers are encouraged to use IWM strategies

IWM i l i tiIWM is a complex innovation

IWM strategy will be more likely to be used if i i fi blif it is profitable

economic analysis of IWM at the farm level is extremely complex

Page 6: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Background

Economic analysis of weed management options

e g in WA model 10119 treatment e.g. in WA model, 10119 treatment combinations

at one billion st ategies pe second o ld at one billion strategies per second, would require 1089 years to compare all strategies

th i 14 billi ldearth is 14 billion years old

if we had started at the time of the big b ld b billi billi bang, we would be one billion, billion, billion, billion, billion, billion, billion,

billionth finishedbillionth finished

Source: Pannell, 2007

Page 7: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Background

Economic analysis of weed management options

a bio economic model is an effective tool a bio-economic model is an effective tool to evaluate IWM strategies

bio economic sim lation models can help bio-economic simulation models can help farmers develop long-term understanding

about weed managementabout weed management

RIMPhil is a DSS developed for major weeds in rice cropsweeds in rice crops

Page 8: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil A iRIMPhil: An overview

RIMPhilResistance and Integrated Management

f Ri F i i h Phili ifor Rice Farming in the PhilippinesA model for testing the biological and economic performance of

integrated weed management systems for herbicide-resistant weeds(annual barnyardgrass version)

The University of Western Australia Developed by Jesusa Beltran Philippine Rice Research

Institute

Faculty of Based on RIM by David Pannell, Vanessa Stewart, Anne Bennett,

Marta Monjardino Carmel Schmidt and Stephen PowlesyNatural and Agricultural Sciences

School of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Marta Monjardino, Carmel Schmidt and Stephen Powles

version 2009aversion 2009a

Page 9: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil: An overviewRIMPhil: An overview

Design and scope

framework is based on RIMsingle field and enterprise: rice cropg p pmajor weed: annual barnyardgrass

crop establishment options: transplanted p p pand direct-seeded rice

cropping season: wet and dry seasonsdesign for irrigated areas

49 treatment options:- 27 herbicide options

- 22 non-herbicide options5 10 15 d 20 5;10;15 and 20 years

Page 10: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil: An overviewRIMPhil: An overview

Select strategSelect strategy

Saved Ch tstrategies Charts

Biological results

Economic results

Crops & weeds

Control costs

Control%Prices &

ratesrates

Adapted from RIM 2004 (Pannell et al., 2004)

Page 11: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil: An overview

Major outputs of RIMPhil

average annual profit (Php/ha) for different periods (e.g. 1-5 years)

i f h i gross margin for each cropping season and year

total number of seeds in the soil (per m2)total number of seeds in the soil (per m )

density of weed plants (per m2)

Number of uses of herbicide groups remaining before weeds are mainly resistant Shots left Example(per m )

total weed control costs (Php/ha)

Group A (fops)-high risk 12 Cyhalofop-butyl Group B-high risk 12 Bispyribac Sodium

Group C2-high risk 12 PropanilGroup D-low risk 20 Paraquat Group E-low risk 20 Oxadiazon

herbicide resistance status of annual barnyardgrass

Group G-low risk 20 Glyphosate IPA Group K1-moderate risk 16 Pendimethalin

Group K3-low risk 20 ButachlorGroup N-low risk 20 Thiobencarb

Group O-moderate risk 16 2,4-Dbarnyardgrass pOther pre-emergence herbicide 0 User defined

Other early post-emergence herbicide 0 User definedOther late post-emergence herbicide 0 User defined

Page 12: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil t d d ltRIMPhil: standard resultsMethod of crop establishment sequencep q

transplanting–transplanting method (TT)di t di t di th d (DD)direct–direct-seeding method (DD)transplanting–direct-seeding (TD)

“Optimal” weed management strategy

manual weeding is a more profitable strategy than herbicides for low weed

densitdensityhigh dependence on herbicides as weed

density and labour cost increasesdensity and labour cost increases

Page 13: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil t d d ltRIMPhil: standard results30

25

(no.

of u

se)

WT(2.0)

WT(1.0)

15

20

herb

icid

es (

WT(0.5)

10

on h

igh-

risk

WT(0.1)

0

5

$5 $8 $11 $14 $17

relia

nce

o

$5 $8 $11 $14 $17

labour cost (US$ manday-1)

Reliance on herbicides on DD rotation, across weed threshold (WT) levels (plants/m2) and different labour costs over 20 years

Page 14: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

RIMPhil t d d ltRIMPhil: standard resultsImpacts of herbicide resistancep

substantial economic losseshigh weed treatment costhigh weed treatment cost

altered weed management system

Sensitivity analysis

62 uncertain parameters (crop-related, weed-related, control efficacy and

economics)iti i bl i ld i l b sensitive variables: yield, crop price, labour

cost, weed germination, max weed seed production and crop competition factorproduction and crop competition factor

Page 15: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Future research activities

Analysis of IWM and herbicide use

conservation vs exploitation

Conduct of sensitivity analyses of model results

Page 16: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Acknowledgements:

John Allwright Fellowship (JAF) funded by ACIARby ACIAR

Philippine Rice Research Institute Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice)

Supervisors: W/Prof David Pannell, Res/Asst/Prof Graeme Doole, Prof Benedict White

Page 17: Jesusa C Beltran · ¾at one billion stategies pe second old at one billion strategies per second, would ... (crop-related, ... ¾sensiti ibl ild i lb itive variables: yield, crop

Future research activities

Analysis of IWM and herbicide use

conservation vs exploitation

Conduct of sensitivity analyses of model results


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