JICA’s Approach of Climate Change and Adaptation

JICA’s Approach of Climate Change and Adaptation

Towards wise management of water and land

We are twins in Asia

bilateralassistancebilateralassistance

international organizationsinternational organizations

GrantGrant

Yen loansYen loansODAODA

multilateral assistance

multilateral assistance

Grant AidGrant Aid

New

JICANew

JICATechnical AssistanceTechnical

Assistance

MOFA

JICA

JBIC

October, 2008 -

Official Development Assistance (ODA) Reform:New JICA start in Oct. 08

What is JICA ?Japan International Cooperation Agency

Contents

1. Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership2. Adaptation strategy for Climate Change in Water

Sector inside Japan3. JICA’s Approach on Climate Change4. JICA’s support to adaptation measures in highly

vulnerable countries, regions, and areas Nepal: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) Tuvalu: Project Formulation in Climate Change Philippines: Water and land managementKenya: Community-based adaptation Capacity Development

1. Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership

1.Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership-Halving Global Emissions by 2050-

MOFA

MOFA

1.Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership-Providing support on a scale of US$ 10 bill.-

NEDO (Note 2) etc.

Assistance for adaptation & improved access to clean energy

Eligible countries to ODA loan

Developing countries

(according to policy dialogue)

Other funds

Adaptation, and improved access to clean energy.To promote sustainable development

Transfer Japanese technology and promote GHGsemission reductions at global level

JBIC

Contribution(Note 1)

(e.g.)Forest conservation, disaster management,rural electrification by solar and small hydro

(e.g.) Improving energy efficiency of power generation

Grant aid

Technical Assistance

Assistance through international organizations

“Cool Earth ODA loan”

(US$4.5billion)

Other public funds

Encourage private finance and promote technology transfer

Up to US$ 2 billion Up to US$ 8billion

(Note 1) Japan will also make efforts to create a new multilateral fund together with US and UK, and call on other donors to join it.(Note 2) New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization

Projects

Private sector activities and funds

Vulnerable countries

International organizations

NEXI

Assistance for mitigation

1.Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership-Supporting efforts to reduce emissions while achieving growth

2. Adaptation Strategy in water sector

for Climate Change in Japan

Elevation

3m – 4m

1m – 3m

0m – 1m-1m – 0m-1m –

Water Area

Tone River

Japan is vulnerable to climate change 1. Present conditions in Japan

TokyoStation

UenoStation

Ayase

River

Shinnaka RiverO

ld Edo River

Ara

River

Kanda River

Shibuya RiverMeguro River

IkebukuroStation

ShinjukuStation

ShibuyaStation

Sumida River

KameidoStation

KinsicyoStation

Yodo RiverOsaka Castle

Osaka Station

Shin-Osaka Station

Tennouji Station

Neya River

HiranoRiver

Kanzaki RiverAmagasaki

Station

Kanto Region: TokyoKinki Region: Osaka

Elevation

3m – 4m1m – 3m0m – 1m

-1m – 0m-1m –Water Area

About 50% of population and about 75% of propertyon about 10% of land lower than water levels in rivers during flooding

Climate change prediction models

ＩＰＣＣ１次報告書（１９９０）水平解像度約500km

ＩＰＣＣ２次報告書（１９９６）水平解像度約250km

ＩＰＣＣ３次報告書（２００１）水平解像度約180km

ＩＰＣＣ４次報告書（２００７）水平解像度約110km

GCM20、RCM20水平解像度約20km

河川局作成

※メッシュの大きさを表現したもので、実際のメッシュ箇所とは関係ない

気候変動の予測を行うモデルの解像度は年々進歩

Resolution of climate change prediction models has been improved year by year.

IPCC First Assessment Report (1990): Horizontal resolution of about 500 km

IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996): Horizontal resolution of about 250 km

IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): Horizontal resolution of about 180 km

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): Horizontal resolution of about 110 km

GCM20 and RCM20: Horizontal resolution of about 20 kmMesh sizes are simply indicated regardless of actual mesh locations.

2. Impacts of heavy rains

Prediction model in this study

Estimation of increased rainfall by region

①②

③④

⑤⑥

⑦

⑧

⑨

⑩⑪

①②

③④

⑤⑥

⑦

⑧

⑨

⑩⑪

Future rainfall amounts were projected as a

median value in each region of

Average rainfall in 2080-2099 periodAverage rainfall in 1979-1998 period

The above equation was obtained based on the maximum daily precipitation in the year at each survey point identified in GCM20 (A1B scenario).


1.20∼1.25

1.15∼1.20

1.10∼1.15

1.05∼1.10

1.00∼1.05

Legend

① Hokkaido 1.24

② Tohoku 1.22

③ Kanto 1.11

④ Hokuriku 1.14

⑤ Chubu 1.06

⑥ Kinki 1.07

⑦ Southern Kii 1.13

⑧ San-in 1.11

⑨ Setouchi 1.10

⑩Southern Shikoku 1.11

⑪ Kyushu 1.07

Declining safety level against floods

rainfall

return periodMaximum daily rainfall × 1.2

current future

1/100

1/ 50

Return period of flood is declining by increasing rainfall.

【Image of declining return period】

r

Rainfall probability sheetsRainfall probability sheets

projected datacurrent data


0

25

50

75

100

計

画

北

海

道

⑧

東

北

⑤

関

東

①

北

陸

④

中

部

③

近

畿

紀

伊

南

部

①

山

陰

⑤

瀬

戸

内

③

四

国

南

部

③

九

州

⑭

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

計

画

北

海

道

②

東

北

⑤

関

東

②

北

陸

⑤

中

部

④

近

畿

紀

伊

南

部

①

山

陰

①

瀬

戸

内

③

四

国

南

部

①

九

州

④

0

25

50

75100

125

150

175

200

計

画

北

海

道

東

北

関

東

③

北

陸

中

部

②

近

畿

①

紀

伊

南

部

山

陰

瀬

戸

内

①

四

国

南

部

九

州

Declining safety level against floods

※ Circled number is number of calculated river system

Flood safety level

Hokkaido －－ 1/40～1/70 2 1/25～1/50 8

Tohoku －－ 1/22～1/55 5 1/27～1/40 5

Kanto 1/90～1/120 3 1/60～1/75 2 1/50 1

Hokuriku －－ 1/50～1/90 5 1/40～1/46 4

Cyubu 1/90～1/145 2 1/80～1/99 4 1/60～1/70 3

Kinki 1/120 1 －－－－

Southern Kii －－ 1/57 1 1/30 1

Saninn －－ 1/83 1 1/39～1/63 5

Setouchi 1/100 1 1/82～1/86 3 1/44～1/65 3

Southern Shikoku －－ 1/56 1 1/41～1/51 3

Kyusyu －－ 1/90～1/100 4 1/60～1/90 14

All Japan 1/90～1/145 7 1/22～1/100 28 1/25～1/90 47

Region Future flood safety level

Current Target

Hokkaido②

Tohoku⑤

Kanto②

Hokuriku⑤

Cyubu④

Kinki

Southern Kii①

Saninn①

Setouchi③

SouthernShikoku①

Kyuusyuu④

Current Target

Hokkaido⑧

Tohoku⑤

Kanto①

Hokuriku④

Cyubu③

Kinki

Southern Kii①

Saninn⑤

Setouchi③

SouthernShikoku③

Kyuusyuu⑭

Current Target

Hokkaido

Tohoku

Kanto③

Hokuriku

Cyubu②

Kinki①

Southern Kii

Saninn

Setouchi①

SouthernShikoku

Kyuusyuu

Flood safety level

Flood safety level

（annual exceedance probability）Number ofriver system

Number ofriver system

Number ofriver system

Impact for flood safety level after 100 years1/200（）1/150（）1/100（）CurrentTarge

tCurrentTarge

tCurrentTarge

t


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

嘉瀬川

（九州）

那賀川（四国）

太田川

（中国）

紀の川

（近畿）

雲出川

（中部）

黒部川

（北陸）

利根川

（関東）

北上川

（東北）

石狩川

(北海道）

計画降雨量の増加と基本高水のピーク流量の変化

Future rainfall: ×1.0 ∼1.5 Peak runoff : ×1.0 ∼1.7

×1.0 ×1.1 ×1.2

Design target Level１／１５０

１／１５０

１／２００

１／１００

１／１００

１／１５０

１／２００

１／１００

１／１００

Basin Area12,697ｋｍ2

7,070ｋｍ2

5,114ｋｍ2

667ｋｍ2

541ｋｍ2

1,574ｋｍ2

1,505ｋｍ2

765ｋｍ2

225.5ｋｍ2

Peak Runoff of Design Flood18,000 m3／s

13,600 m3／s

About 21,000 m3／s(Calculated by 1/200)

7,200 m3／s

8,000 m3／s

16,000 m3／s

12,000 m3／s

11,200 m3／s

3,400 m3／s

20,500

15,700

23,600

8,100

9,000

17,600

13,100

12,800

3,800

23,000

17,800

25,900

8,900

9,900

19,700

14,700

14,500

4,100

25,600

19,900

27,900

9,700

10,900

21,600

16,300

16,100

4,500

30,700

24,000

31,800

11,300

12,800

25,400

19,400

19,300

5,300

×1.3 ×1.5

Ishikari Riv.(Hokkaido)

Kitakami Riv.(Tohoku)

Tone Riv.(Kanto)

Kurobe Riv.(Hokuriku)

Izumo Riv.(Cyubu)

Kinokawa Riv.(Kinki)

Oota Riv.(Cyugoku)

Naga Riv.(Shikoku)

Kase Riv.(Kyusyu)

Design Rainfall

Changes of peak flood runoff 2. Impacts of heavy rains

More frequent and serious droughts 3. Impacts of droughts

After 100 years, rainfall decrease in March - June

Comparison between present conditions(1979 to 1998) and future rainfall(2080 to 2099) in Class A rivers Source: Water Resources in Japan 2007, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Legend

Spring (March through June)Spring (March through June)

≧ 1.4

1.2- 1.4

1.0 - 1.2

0.8- 1.0

< 0.8

Reduction of river flow in periods requiring most irrigation water, during surface soil puddling in paddy fields, may deteriorate water use for rice farming.

More frequent and serious droughtsSnow fall pattern will change

Source: Water Resources in Japan 2007, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Change in snow cover in 100 years (Fujiwara)

Change in snow cover in 100 years (Fujiwara)

In the upper Tone River -snow cover will decrease-reduction of river flow rate in early spring

*Prepared by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport based on Regional Climatic Model (RCM) 20, a global warming prediction model, developed by Japan Meteorological Agency.

Release of reservoir water not contributing to effective water useWhere the reservoir is full, released water is not used effectively.

現況将来R

iver

flow

(m3 /s

ec)

(ii) Reduction of river flow rate

(i) earlier snow melt and (ii) reduction of snowfall changes in river flow rate, and(iii) earlier surface soil puddling in paddy fields is expected to change annual water demand pattern, and to have serious impacts on water use.

(i) Earlier discharge due to earlier snow melt

January JulyApril October

(iii) Insufficient river flow for large amounts of irrigation

Reduction of river flow during surface soil puddling in paddy fields

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

10月1日 11月1日 12月1日 1月1日 2月1日 3月1日 4月1日 5月1日

積雪深

平均

将来

（cm）

AverageFuture

MarOct Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr May 1

Sno

w c

over

(cm

)

Future Present

Surface soil puddling period

3. Impacts of droughts

Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas(Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe)

*Prepared by the River Bureau based on the national land-use digital information.

*Shown are the areas at elevations lower than sea level shown in a three-dimensional mesh (1 km x 1 km). Total area and population are based on three-dimensional data.

*No areas of surfaces of rivers or lakes are included.*A premium of 60% is applied to the potential flood risk area and to the population vulnerable to flood risk in the case with a one-meter rise of sea level.

Increasing areas with flood risks

Increase of areas below sea level, and of inundation risks

4. Impacts of sea level rise

Ise Bay

Kawagoemachi to Tohkai City

Osaka Bay

Ashiya City to Osaka City

Tokyo Bay

Yokohoma City to Chiba City

Ise Bay

Kawagoemachi to Tohkai City

Osaka Bay

Ashiya City to Osaka City

Tokyo Bay

Yokohoma City to Chiba City

593

879海面上昇後

１.５404人口（万人）

577面積（k㎡）倍率現状

5.93

879海面上昇後

4.04人口（万人）

１.５577面積（k㎡）倍率現状PresentAfter sea level rise

Rate of increase

Area (km2) 2)

Population(Mill.

Recommendations 5. Japan's response to climate change

in coastal and low-lying areas:-More frequent heavy rains and more intense typhoons

Frequent and serious flood and sediment disasters

-Sea level rise and more intense typhoonsFrequent and serious high tides and coastal erosions

-Wider range of variation of rainfall intensity and change of river flowFrequent and serious droughts

Recommendation1. Basic concept

Recommendation2. Basic policy

‘’Sustainable and Adaptable Society against Water Disasters’’

1. Adaptation measures to achieve "zero casualty”Paradigm shift from ‘’Zero damage’’

2. Keeping national functionsIn strategic centers, such as the Tokyo Metropolitan area,

1/150 1/150

1/70

1/401/20

Comprehensive flood control measures

Present Future（after 100 years）

Recommendations 3Multiple measures for increasing in hazard

Blue figures: future flood safety

Present target Present target of flood safety of flood safety

Secured Secured safetysafety

1/20Target of flood safety Target of flood safety

after 100 yearsafter 100 years

Deterioration of Deterioration of secured safety secured safety

Present target will Present target will be decreased be decreased

because of because of increased rainfallincreased rainfall

Non-structural adaptation measures in river basin, such as land use regulation

Target of flood Target of flood safety safety

Secured Secured flood safetyflood safety

Adaptation by Structural measures

Reconfiguration of river improvement

for increasing external force

Image of flood disaster adaptation measures

5. Japan's response to climate change

入間台地

Flooding area IV

Flooding Area I

Flooding Area IIFlooding A

rea VI

Divide flooding areas

Flood Analysis in Tone River

Image of 【Flooding Area II】

Each flooding area divides into blocks by river, bank of road and railway. Measures will be set up by each blocks.

Bank of Road and Railway

Small River

Recommendation 4: Flood Risk Assessment– ex) Adaptation measures in river basin

Flooding Area III

Flooding Area V


・Hazard Index : Natural hazard and Land condition（Climate, Hydrology, Land Feature, Geologic Condition, etc and Scale of Hazard）

・Affection Index : Social vulnerability of disasters（Inundation people, Inundation houses, impacts of Road, Railway, Lifeline, etc）

・Disaster Prevention Index : Disaster prevention activity by Central Government, Local Government, community（Present status of facility improvement, Public preparedness for disasters）

[Hazard Index] is increasing by Climate Change. For reduction of [Disaster risk] , increasing [Disaster Prevention Index] and reducing [Affection Index] by adaptation measures such as improvement of facility, revise of land use, enforce of emergency response

Disaster RiskDisaster Risk Affection IndexAffection IndexHazard IndexHazard IndexDisaster Prevention IndexDisaster Prevention Index＝＝

×× ProbabilityProbability××

0

1000

1 10 100 1000低頻度中頻度高頻度

犠

牲

者

数

の指

標

Ｃ

Ｅ

Ｆ

Ａ

Ｂ

Ｄ■例）潜在的犠牲者発生指数

0

1000

1 10 100 1000

Ａ地区Ｂ地区Ｃ地区Ｄ地区Ｅ地区Ｆ地区

ｆ＝Σ潜在的犠牲者発生指数×頻度×被災確率

犠

牲

者

数

の指

標Ｅ

低頻度中頻度高頻度

リスク増

潜在的犠牲者発生指数

リスクの大きさに応じてカテゴリー分類

ＢＢＡＡ

ＣＣ

ＤＤ

ＥＥ

Ｆ

Flood areas are divided into blocks by considering land feature such as bank of river, road, railway.

Recommendation 4: Flood Risk Assessment‒ Concept of Flood Risk Assessment

Index of Victim

s

Index of Victim

sMiddle

ProbabilityLow

ProbabilityHigh

ProbabilityMiddle

ProbabilityLow

ProbabilityHigh

Probability

f=Σ Index of Potential Victims× Frequency × Probability

Index of Potential Victims

High R

isk

Category by Risk Scale

block


Planning based on evaluation items, alternatives and costs

Recommendation4: Flood Risk Assessment‒ Evaluation of risks and planning adaptation measures

Affection Indexｆ・Potential Casualty・Economic Damage・Administrative Services Depression

・Inundate House・Environmental Damage

Example of Affection Index

評価項目や適応策などに関する制約条件の下で目的関数の最大化を図る

ｆ１：Current Affection Indexｆ２：Affection Index after adaptation measuresΔｆ：Reduction of Affection Index by adaptation measuresα i ：Weighting factor of each assessment Affection Indexn ：Targeted evaluation itemsＣ：Cost

■ Index of potential casualtyImage

High Risk

After adaptation measures

ＢＢＡＡ

ＣＣ

ＤＤ

ＥＥ

ＦＦ

Δｆ＝ f1-f2

Σα i・Δｆi ／ Σ Cii

ｎ

i

ｎΔｆ＝

Σα i・Δｆi ／ Σ Cii

ｎ

i

ｎ

High Risk

■Index of economic damage

ＢＢＡＡ

ＣＣ

ＤＤＥＥ

ＦＦ

【Image】

After adaptation measures

Maximize target function under restriction of assessment contents and adaptation measures etc.

Necessity of considering multiple index of affection


Color index for effectiveness of risk reduction by adaptation measures

Recommendation 4: Flood Risk Assessment‒ Evaluation Risks and Planning measures

Bank ofRoad and Railway

medium and small size rivers

Index of potential casualty

ＢＡ

Ｃ

ＥＤ

Ｆ

High R

isk

Ｐ

Ｐ

ST

Risk reduction by adaptation measures

Bank Improvement

drain pump

flood fighting station

New RoadBank

Adaptation Measures

ＡＡＢＢ

ＣＣ

ＤＤＥＥ

ＦＦ


Recommendation5. combination measures‒ Structural Adaptation measures

Improvement of structure credibility, effective and multipurpose and long-life utilization of existing structure

improvement of the credibility of structure（ex Coastal protection）

aging revetmentby deteriorated concrete

Before

Rehabilitation of aging revetmentby setting up anterior wall

After

flood control（Dam）

越流堤

遊水地排水門

鶴見川

鳥山川

横浜国際総合

競技場

：鶴見川多目的遊水地

Multipurpose retarding basin

International Stadium YokohamaFinal game of the

World Cup was held in 2002

River improvement

Multipurpose retarding basin of Tsurumi River

tide gate

Overflowlevee

TsurumiRiver

KarasuyamaRiver

Improvement structure


Recommendation5: combination of measures‒ Non-structural adaptation measures

Non-structural measures to response floods not covered by structural measures: land use or development allowing inundation.

land use for minimize damages

River improvement for protection of specified areas by using circle levees

名古屋市臨海部防災区域図

Class 2 disaster hazard area




Sample ordinance restrictions (Nagoya City)

１階の床の高さ構　造　制　限*建築物の建築禁止範囲…海岸線・河岸線から50m以内で市長が指定する区域制限…居住室を有する建築物、病院及び児童福祉施設等の建築禁止木造以外の構造で、居住室等の床の高さをN・P（+）5.5m以上としたものについては建築可能

2階以上に居室設置 *公共建築物の制限緩和：延べ面積が100㎡（第2種～第4種区域）以内のものは避難室、避難設備の設置による代替可

範囲…学校、病院、集会場、官公署、児童福祉施設等その他これらに類する公共建築物

第３種区域

市街化区域

Ｎ・Ｐ（+）1m以上

第４種区域

市街化調整区域

Ｎ・Ｐ（+）1m以上 2階以上に居室設置

図　　　　　解

Ｎ・Ｐ（+）1m以上

市街化区域

第２種区域

木造禁止Ｎ・Ｐ（+）4m以上

市街化区域

第１種区域

制限…1階の床の高さN・P（+）2mかつN・P（+）3.5m以上の居室設置

1階床高

N・P

543

（ｍ）

1階床高

N・P

210

（ｍ）

1階床高

N・P

210

（ｍ）

1階床高

N・P

210

（ｍ）

land use regulation

Adopting pilotis to prevent damage to buildings during a flood

Resilient to inundation

Designation of potential disaster hazard area

River improvement of continuous leveecircle levee


Recommendation5: combination of measures‒ Adaptation measures centering around risk management

Image of road-embankment connectionInundation of Route 34 during a flood

in July 1990

Network of roads and river embankments

wide-area disaster prevention network connecting embankments, roads on dry river bed for emergency traffic and elevated roads

《緊急災害対策派遣隊》

構成員

現地支援センター

広域基盤施設部隊〈河川・道路・砂防・港湾等〉

下水道部隊

宅地部隊

建築物部隊

体制各地方整備局・事務所職員

民間建設関連（資機材の操作員）

国総研・土研等の技術専門家

技術支援グループ（技術専門家）契約

協定

地方公共団体職員

連携

《緊急災害対策派遣隊》

構成員

現地支援センター

広域基盤施設部隊〈河川・道路・砂防・港湾等〉

下水道部隊

宅地部隊

建築物部隊

体制各地方整備局・事務所職員

民間建設関連（資機材の操作員）

国総研・土研等の技術専門家

技術支援グループ（技術専門家）契約

協定

地方公共団体職員

連携

Activities-Investigation of damage-Quick repairing-Prediction of degree of damage risk

-Planning of control measures

-High-level technical guidance

-Assistance in reconstruction Disaster control helicopter

Technical Emergency Control Force (TEC-FORCE)

Reinforcement of actions of minimizing damage and restoring infrastructure, and organizational arrangement

Drainage pumping vehicle

Organizational setup

Field support center

Wide-area infrastructure force (rivers, roads, sediment control,

ports, etc.)

Sewerage system force

Building land force

Buildings force

TEC-FORCEStaff of Regional Development Bureaus and Offices

Engineers of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management and Public Works Research Institute

Technical support group (engineers)

Private sector construction organizations (operators of equipment)

Staff of local public entities

Coordination

Contract/agreement


Recommendation5: combination of measures‒ Adaptation measures based on risk management

洪水ハザードマップの作成イメージ洪水ハザードマップの作成イメージ

Image of a flood hazard map

Easily recognizable signs

Underground space

Information dissemination

channel Locations and names of shelters

Points of contact-Administrative organizations

-Medical institutions

-Lifeline systems management organizations

Hints on escape and necessities

Potential inundation areas and depths of

inundation

Flood hazard map of xx City

Flood Embankment Shelter (building)Toyooka City, Hyogo Prefecture

Past flood levels in hazard map

Share information concerning the degree of flood risk


Recommendation5: combination of measures‒ Adaptation measures based on risk management

Relay station

Flood alarm office

Meteorological observatory

River office

Radar precipitation prediction

Rainfall measurement station

Rainfall measurement station

Gauging station

Flood (water level) prediction system

Share real-time information

Information provision via Information provision via cellular phone or personal cellular phone or personal computercomputer

Delivery of an image to a TV Delivery of an image to a TV screenscreen

Radar observation station

Gauging station

Surveillance camera

Floodwater prediction through realFloodwater prediction through real--time simulationtime simulation

・ rainfall and water levels real-time via cellular phone, Internet or local radio・ Flood forecasting through real-time simulation


Adaptation measuresin suburb of Tokyo

Hayase-River

ToriyamaRiver

Onda RiverTsurumi

River

Tsurumi

River

Riverbed gradient : 1/250

Riverbed gradient ：1/1,000

Hill / tableland 70％Alluvial lowland 30％

Upstream section Upstream section below grand levelbelow grand level

Middle section with Middle section with stepped cross sectionstepped cross section

Outline of Tsurumi River (Geography)Outline of Tsurumi River (Geography)

Tsurumi River

elevation0∼20m

Tokyo Chiba Pref.

KanagawaPref. Tsurumi river basin

DenselyDensely--populated populated downstream sectiondownstream section

Urbanization ration has increased

by 75% in 50years

Rapid economic growth has turned natural area into urban area

1958 101958 10％％ 1966 20%1966 20%

1975 60%1975 60% Present 85%Present 85%

450,000

1,200,000 1,880,000

700,000

Outline of Tsurumi RiverOutline of Tsurumi River(Urbanization and population increase)(Urbanization and population increase)

Typhoon Karinogawa in Sep 1958

Typhoon No.17 in Sep 1976

Natural Area

Urban AreaUrbanizationUrbanization Population

8. Adaptation measures in Tsurumi River

Function of keeping and retarding water became weakened

As a resultAs a result

・Population increased by 1.4 million in 50 years

・85% of river basin area urbanized

・Typical urban river Before development Slight urbanization

・Discharge into river has become faster

・Peak runoff hasbecomes bigger

Outline of Tsurumi RiverOutline of Tsurumi River (rapid urbanization) (rapid urbanization)

1,300 m3/s Peak runoff Volume Doubles

Difference

Runoff reachesits peak in 1/3 of time

After development Significant urbanization

770 m3/s

22∼∼3 hours3 hours

Present

10 hours10 hours

BeforeDevelopment


Runoff allocation by target rainfall

Rainfall storage tubes by sewerage administrators

Allocation in river basin (town)：250m3/s

Allocation in river：1,860mm33/s/s

Rainfall storage and infiltration measures by municipalities

Existing and newly developed rainfall storage and infiltration facilities

Controlled by riversStorage in flood control facilitiesand in retarding basins

Peak runoff without discharge control ･･･2,110m3/s

205m3/s

15m3/s

30m3/s

※Under the future land use, runoff is estimated at Sueyoshibashi point based on the largest rainfall after 1945.

1,500m3/s

360m3/s

Basic strategy for controlling inundation damageBasic strategy for controlling inundation damage(Runoff allocation) (Runoff allocation)


Development of facilities for target rainfallPlanned discharge in pump drainage areas

City Discharge area

Planned discharge

Yokohama Tsuzuki 17m3/s Kouhoku 142m3/sHokubu 189m3/s

Kawasaki Kase 55m3/sTotal 402m3/s

Pump facilities

Planned storage of major facilities

City Storage facility Planned Storage

Yokohama Shin hasue trunk line 410,000m3

Kozukue chiwaka trunk line 256,000m3

Kawasaki Shibukawa rainwater storage tube

144,000m3

Egawa rainwater storage tube 81,000m3

Rainwater storage tube

Rainwater storage facilitiesRainwater storage facilities 8. Adaptation measures in Tsurumi River

(Total effect : 0.3 million m3)

Infiltration

in schools, parks and public facilitiesStorage

Storage, infiltration Storage, infiltration and forest conservationand forest conservation

ForestConservation

Infiltration trenchInfiltration trenchInfiltrationInfiltrationInletInlet

Infiltration trenchInfiltration trenchInfiltration InletInfiltration Inlet


Infiltration by permeable pavement

To organize local meetings and raise public awareness on preparedness on disaster

Education for students

Annual educational course for students on disaster preparedness

To visit local meetings and explain to residents

Disaster preparedness caravan

Tsurumi River Commnication Center

Public awareness to mitigate damagesPublic awareness to mitigate damages(Public awareness and education on disaster preparedness) (Public awareness and education on disaster preparedness)


“Hazard Maps”

ハザードマップ

（自治体）

““Hazard MapHazard Map”” released by released by Yokohama CityYokohama City

Urban flood prone area（River administrator）

Flood is estimated by levee break or overtopping.

Urban inundation prone area (Sewerage administrator)

Inundation by insufficient drainage capacity is estimated.On the basis

Public awareness on flood damagesPublic awareness on flood damages(Advance dissemination of flood and inundation prone information(Advance dissemination of flood and inundation prone information))


3. JICA Approach on Climate Change

(1) To provide cross-sectoral cooperation according to policy dialogue with developing countries

(2) To take a development approach simultaneously achieving economic development, improvement of livelihoods and reduction of GHG emissions

(3) To utilize Japan’s advanced technologies

(4) To promote research works

2.JICA Approach on Climate Change

(1) To assist both sustainable development and reduction of GHG emissions

a. Reforestationb. Clean energyc. Public transportd. Solid waste management

(2) To assist private sector initiatives to reduce GHG emissions

a. Improving energy efficiencyb. Public Private Partnership

(3) To assist promotion of a clean development mechanism (CDM)

a. Capacity developmentb. Support to implementation

2.JICA Approach on Climate Change-Mitigation Measures-

(1) To support establishing and implementing adaptation policy according to effect in each country

(2) To support adaptation measures in highly vulnerable countries, regions, and areas

(3) Introducing the concept of “consideration on climate risk”to JICA projects

2.JICA Approach on Climate Change-Adaptation Measures-

3. JICA’s support to adaptation measures in highly vulnerable countries, regions, and areas

3-1: GLOF in Himalaya3-2: Sea level rise in Pacific 3-3: Integrated Flood and Urban management in Philippines3-4: Community based apaptaion in Kenya3-5: Capacity development

3-1 GLOFWhat is Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ?

Dig Tsho Lake in Nepal, 1985

• 5 million m3 water discharged• Damages of

• Hydropower station• Bridges• Houses• Human losses

Prof. Tomomi Yamada

Prof. Tomomi Yamada

• JICA experts– 2yrs glacial hydrology– 4yrs glacial geology– 5 Short term experts

• Out puts– Inventory survey– Site survey– Capacity building

3-1 GLOFJICA’s Support

• Dr. T. Yamada (Glaciology)• Prof. D. Higaki (Sabo) • Dr. Y. Maruo (Geology)

• Mr. M. Ishiwatari (Leader, Disaster management)

• Ms. Kamei, Mr. Hatori (JICA)

3-1 GLOFProject formulation Mission: June 2008

• It is difficult to consider that the Imja Glacial Lake will immediately burst. (watanabe 2008)

• Assets in risk area:60 houses (ICIMOD 2007)

3-1 GLOFImja Lake

• Severe working condition: high cost, limited construction period, mountain altitude sickness

• Still high risk

3-1 GLOFTsho Rolpa Lake

3-1 GLOFJoint Seminar with ICIMOD

--To establish sustainable systems and capacities in monitoring, research, DM of GLOF--

AreasNation-wide GLOF Risk Management Data BaseTechnology development and research workCapacity development of Government institutions and universitiesCommunity based disaster management

As further stepsRegional Cooperation

3-1 GLOFRecommendations

MUST be carefully balanced with other development issues. Since GLOF is: • NOT national development agenda • NOT high priority in disaster management sector, and• Limited damages of past and potential GLOF.

3-1 GLOFRecommendations

Ministries of Foreign Affairs; and Land, Infrastructure, and Transport; Environment; Tokyo Univ.; and JICA

3-2 TuvaluProject Formulation Mission in Climate Change

Research and survey works are recommended to conserve costal lines and to control erosion:

formulation processes of atollsecological systemsmechanism of providing sands, sedimentation, and erosionocean currents and tidesstructural and non-structural measuressocial survey

3-2 TuvaluMission Findings

Typhoon Reming Oct 2000 (Source: IDI-Japan)

Aug. 2007

3-3 Integrated Flood and Urban ManagementMetro Manila Suburb, Philippines : Cavite Area

Rapid urbanization Frequent Floods

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48

Time (Hour)

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s) Qp = 880m3/s

States Quo

Qp = 1,090 m3/sYear 2050 under Secenario B1

Qp=1,300m3/sYear 2050 under Secenario A1FI

Changes of precipitable water for Manila

Local Average Temperature Rise in

Philippines (℃)

Incremental R

atio of Extrem

e Rainfall

(%)

Model for Interdisciplinary Model

Peak flood volume (10yr return period)

×1.25~1.5 in 2050


Case No. Scenario of Climate Change Urbanized Ratio

Probable Flood Inundation Area (km2) Number of Houses/Buildings Inundated (thousand houses)

Flood Depth below 1m

Flood Depth above 1m Total Flood Depth

below 1mFlood Depth

above 1m Total

1 Status Quo 26%* 31.51 1.05 32.56 20.1 1.7 21.82 States Quo

43%**35.82 1.50 37.32 31.4 2.9 34.4

3 In 2050 under B1 Scenario 41.10 2.52 43.62 35.5 4.4 39.94 In 2050 under A1FI Scenario 44.64 3.54 48.18 38.4 5.9 44.35 States Quo

65%***41.05 2.45 43.50 56.4 7.2 63.6

6 In 2050 under B1 Scenario 43.92 2.97 46.89 60.1 8.5 68.67 In 2050 under A1FI Scenario 47.27 3.98 51.25 63.0 11.2 74.2

Note:*: The present urbanized ratio as of 2003 **: The urbanized ratio in 2020 proposed by the JICA Study Team***: The urbanized ratio in 2020 projected by the local governments

×3200821,800 houses

205074,200 houses



Alternative 1: Widening channel

Alternative 2: Heightening dyke


Off-site Flood Retarding BasinPartial River Improvement SectionOff-site Flood Retarding BasinPartial River Improvement Section

○ Alternative 3: Integrated management2. Land Use Control1. River improvement works 3. Retarding Basin in

Urban area

Flood Affected Area

Flood Depth

Based on the past ExperienceLevel of Flood Depth

Direction for Evacuation with Distance, Evacuation Center, and Flood Area

Sing Board for Flood Condition at Area

Sing Board for Evacuation Route

Raising national road

River side forest

Ring Dyke

Long Spur

Dyke on High Ground

Evacuation Route

Roadside Drainage

3-4 Community Based Adaptation Nyand River Basin Kenya

Victoria Lake

Nyand River

Signboard

Evacuation drill

Hazard mapping First aid

3-4 Community Based AdaptationKenya- Nyand River Basin

Well

トイレ

Evacuation route

sanitation

Low-cost revetment

3-4 Community Based Adaptation Nyand River Basin Kenya

Evacuation center facilities

• Technical assistance for climate change projection on a local-scale

• High-resolution climate models with computing power of the “Earth Simulator” (20km-mesh atmospheric model)

3-5 Capacity Development for Adaptation to CC -Argentine-

• 3-year training programme starting in 2008, targeted at Asian countries, covering:– Climate scenario (2008-09)– Impact assessment (2010)

• To be followed by concrete adaptation actions:– Adaptation policy formulation & implementation– Mainstreaming

3-5 Capacity Development for Adaptation to CC -Training course in Japan-

Climate Scenario2008－09

Agriculture

Health CareJICA

Japan Meteorological AgencyMeteorological Research Institute

& others

Impact Assessment

step1

step2

step3 Adaptation Actions

DisasterManagement

Forestry & Natural Resource

2010

Conclusion

JICA just started Capacity Development Projects in Adaptation to CC

On trial and ad-hoc basis

ChallengesIntegrating into national development policy frameworkMulti-sector approachDeveloping planning methodologyCapacity development

Thank you very much

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JICA’s Approach of Climate Change and Adaptation

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