Jim Shortle, Penn State UniversityJim Shortle, Penn State UniversityJune 8, 2010June 8, 2010
Major Components
PA Climate FuturesA i l
ForestsH H l hAgriculture
Aquatic Ecosystems/Fisheries
Human HealthInsuranceOutdoor Recreationy
EnergyOutdoor RecreationWater
GlobalClimate
RegionalEconomy
Economyin Rest of Economyin Rest of
World
ApproachClimate Futures
Multi‐model GCM averages u ode GC a e agesTwo IPCC emissions scenarios
Sector impact studiespLiterature review and synthesisMulti‐sector dynamic model of PA
i h li k US d ld economy with links to US and world economies
Emissions Scenarios)
“High” emissions A2 scenario(A
nnual
scenario
“L ”“Low” emissions B1 scenario
PA Climate Futures
Projections for the state constructed using averages of outputs from 14 GCMsusing averages of outputs from 14 GCMs
Multi‐model mean provides a credible simulation of PA’s 20th Century Climate, yand is superior to any individual GCMMulti‐model mean is slightly too cool and wet and slightly muted in variability and wet, and slightly muted in variability on sub‐monthly time scales
Temperature
Annual cycle of b d (bl )observed (blue)
and modeled (green) Pennsylvania‐Pennsylvaniaaveraged mean temperature.(Dashed lines
t / represent +/‐ 1 standard deviation)
Precipitation
Annual cycle of b d (bl )observed (blue)
and modeled (green) Pennsylvania‐Pennsylvaniaaveraged mean precipitation.(Dashed lines
t / represent +/‐ 1 standard deviation)
Pa Very Likely to be warmerAll GCM models project warming through 2100 for both emissions scenariosWarming for the next 20 years is independent of the emissions scenarioWarming by the end of the century is substantially Warming by the end of the century is substantially dependent on the emissions scenario
A2 median projected warming about 4ºCB1 median projected warming about 2ºC
Greater Warming inGreater Warming in Summer than Winter Means
Emissions ScenarioPeriod B2 A1
2045‐2065 2.0ºC 2.5ºC
2080‐2099 2.5ºC 4.5ºC
Emissions ScenarioPeriod B2 A1
2045‐2065 1.5ºC 2.0ºC
2080‐2099 2.0ºC 3.0ºC2080 2099 2.0 C 3.0 C
PA Likely to Be WetterLess model agreement on precipitation than warming
But >3/4 project increased annual precipitation through the century for both emissions scenariosemissions scenarios
Like temperature, the change in precipitation does not vary with emissions p p yscenario to mid‐Century ‐ but does beyond that
A2 median projected increase in annual average precipitation about 10% by 2100
Precip Increases greater inPrecip Increases greater in Winter than Summer
Average summer precipitation increase across all models is on the order of 0 5% during 2046 2065 models is on the order of 0‐5% during 2046‐2065 and a little greater than that during 2080‐2099.Average winter precipitation increases is ~5‐10% Average winter precipitation increases is 5 10% during 2046‐2065 and 10‐15% during 2080‐2099
Some other Climate ResultsLonger growing seasons, and fewer frost days, but also longer dry periods – soil
i d h moisture droughts a concernGreater intensity of precipitationIncreased intensity but reduced frequency of tropical and extratropical systems
Water ResourcesFl d P i l d i iFloods: Potential decrease in rain‐on‐snow events (good news), but more summer floods and higher flow variability.St t t I i t Stream temperature: Increase in stream temperature for most streams likely (e.g., bad for trout). Streams with high groundwater inflow less affected groundwater inflow less affected. Snow pack: Substantial decrease in snow cover extent and duration.Runoff: Overall increase but mainly due Runoff: Overall increase, but mainly due to higher winter runoff. Decrease in summer runoff due to higher temperatures. temperatures.
Water ResourcesG d P i l i i Groundwater: Potential increase in recharge due to reduced frozen soil and higher winter precipitation.Soil moisture: Decrease in summer and fall soil moisture. Increased frequency of short and q ymedium term soil moisture droughts. Water quality: Flashier runoff, Water quality: Flashier runoff, urbanization and increasing water temperatures might negatively impact water quality.impact water quality.
E t Will BEcosystems Will Be Increasingly Stressedg yWetlands and headwater streams in Pennsylvania are already compromised i th i bilit t id t in their ability to provide ecosystem servicesClimate change will increase stresses on aquatic ecos stemson aquatic ecosystems
Increased stream temperaturesIncreased flow variability
Impacts will be difficult to detect because of the continuation of other stressors such as development and i i iinvasive species
AgricultureModerate warming (1 to 3ºC) could……
Could increase yields of some major field crops ( h b ) (corn, hay, soybeans) Harm yields of cool‐temperature adapted fruits and vegetables (potatoes, and apples) while benefiting g (p , pp ) gthose suited to warmer temperatures (sweet corn)Harm American grape varieties but create
t iti f E i ti opportunities for European varieties Increase dairy production costs but increase the attractiveness of PA to southern hog and poultry g p yproducers
AgricultureMore extreme warming poses greater problemsDroughts, pests could be problematicOutcomes for PA farmers depend not only on climate change in PA, but what climate change does to agricultural markets and economies does to agricultural markets and economies elsewhere
World pricespShifts in location
ForestsSpecies composition will shift as the climate becomes less suited to northern species and more suited to northern species and more suited to southern species
Northern Southern
American Beech Loblolly
Black Cherry Shortleaf Pine
Eastern Hemlock Common Persimmon
Red and Sugar Maple Red Mulberry
White Pine Oaks & HickoriesWhite Pine Oaks & Hickories
Forests
Like agricultureEconomic productivity could increaseEconomic productivity could increaseBenefits to the industry will depend on climate change impacts elsewhereclimate change impacts elsewhereDisease, invasive species, fire risks also increase
l d lTemperature Related Mortality
Mechanism of Impact
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of impact
Higher summer temperatures cause an in increase in heat‐related deaths
Highrelated deaths
Higher winter temperatures cause a decrease in cold‐related d th
Highdeaths
Net impact unknown
Heat adaptations include air conditioning, warning systems; low income assistance needed
Respiratory Disease
Mechanism of Impact
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of iimpact
Higher summer temperatures cause in increased in ozone Highincreased in ozone formation
Higher temperatures increase formation of i b ti l t
Lowairborne particulatesHigher temperatures, higher CO2 levels and longer summer season i l f
Lowincrease prevalence of pollen and mold
AccidentsMechanism of Impact
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of iimpact
Increases in flood and severe rainstorms
LoDecreases in snow and ice storms
Low
Infectious DiseasesVector Borne: Lyme, West Nile, St. Louis Encephalitis, Ehrilichiosis, MalariaW B C idi Gi di Water Borne: Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Campylobacter, SalmonellaAirborne: Influenza PneumococcusAirborne: Influenza, Pneumococcus
Infectious DiseasesMechanism of Impact
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of iimpact
Higher temperaturesaffect range and abundance of disease‐ Lowabundance of diseasecarrying vectors
Higher temperatures and runoff lead to i d t ti increased concentration of water‐borne pathogens in surface waters
Medium
Hi h i Higher winter temperatures affect incidence of pneumonia and seasonal influenza
Low
Outdoor RecreationIncreased winter temperatures will shorten the season and increase the costs of downhill ski facilities – the economic viability of the activity will be diminishedReduced snow cover will diminish opportunities for dispersed snow‐based recreation (skiing, snowIncreased stream temperatures will affect the viability of wild and to some degree stocked trout populationsIncreased temperatures will increase the number of fishing daysLonger and warmer summers will increase the demand for water‐based recreation
Economic ImpactsClimate change has negligible impacts on overall economic activity in PASi ifi l i i li i i Significant sectoral impacts in climate sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy, forests)Climate change impacts on US and world agricultural Climate change impacts on US and world agricultural and forest commodity markets important to PA
Agriculture ResultsGrains, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables:Climate change increases productivity Climate change increases productivity and production in PAClimate change also increases productivity in other states, lowering prices received by PA farmersNet result: small changes in revenues Net result: small changes in revenues for PA grain and oilseed farmers, revenues increase for fruit and
t bl fvegetable farmers
Agriculture Results (continued)Beef, dairy, poultry, eggs, and hogs:Climate change reduces PA productivityClimate change reduces productivity even more in other statesN l li h i PA li k f Net result: climate change gives PA livestock farmers a competitive advantage relative to other states, shifting production from other states to PAproduction from other states to PA
Agriculture Results (continued)
Food processing:Food processing:Changes in agricultural production and prices affect PA food processing sectorp p gPA food processing output increases, as some production shifts from other states PAto PA
Proactive State andProactive State andLocal Adaptation Policy
Ag cultivars and practices Land use planning and
p y
Forest management practices – cultivated forests with facilitated
building codesRestoration of aquatic ecosystems such as forests with facilitated
regenerationInstitutions and policies
ecosystems such as streams and wetlands wherever possible
for water management in an environment in which water is increasing scarce
Expansion of public outdoor recreation facilitieswater is increasing scarce
and variablefacilities
N R h i N d d t F llNew Research is Needed to Fully Understand Impacts
• Climate downscaling
p
• Reduce emission scenario uncertainty• Detailed sectoral modeling studies• Storm risk assessment• Hydrologic conditions at a small watershed scalewatershed scale
• Ability of already impacted systems to accommodate climate changeaccommodate climate change
• Health‐climate‐environment relationships