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© 2012 IBM Corporation
IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)
Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012
Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology
IBM Centennial Icon of Progress
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
OF THE NBIC(S) 2.0
2 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Today’s Talk
What’s NBIC(S) 2.0?– Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 – “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh”– Why NIBC(S)-2? Why add social?– A Few Slides from NBIC-1 (The lens of “work” – “Z-Theory”)– What has changed in 10 years?
• Social Media & Business (Collaborate)• 3D Printing (Even More Real Now)• Google Glasses (WorldBoard)• Drones (Telerobotics)
What’s next?– Energy 2.0: 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days– Manufacturing 2.0: Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving– Agriculture 2.0: Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back– Education 2.0: Universities=living-labs/smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx– Life 2.0: CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds– Smart 2.0: SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.
What’s important?– Whole Service Systems (individuals, family, cities, etc.)– Measures: Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience– Policymaking: Balance WTA & IWL policies (global grand challenges, X-Prizes)– Education: T-shaped people
3 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
NBIC(S)2
Social
http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf
4 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Why Social? Look What’s New…
IBM title
Google & AppleMicrosoft
WordPress
HP, Oracle, SAP,Facebook,Etc., etc.
Smarter PlanetWatson Jeopardy!
Cloud Computing, AnalyticsService Science Social BusinessCyberSecurity…
5
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of information (created by people) into larger networks
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Scienceby Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)
0.00E+00
5.00E+16
1.00E+17
1.50E+17
2.00E+17
2.50E+17
3.00E+17
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
transistors
About 10 billion transistors made per second in 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all ICs (Source: NSF)
Growth rates for:
Nano: Transistors made per second
Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,fMRI regions scanned per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second Google searchers per second
6
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
200 year view: Services dominate
Nation % WW
Labor% A
%G
%S
25 yr %delta S
China 21.0 50 15 35 191
India 17.0 60 17 23 28
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20
Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44
Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services
2004 2004United States
The largest labor force migrationin human history is underway,
driven by urbanization, global communications,
low cost labor, business growthand technology innovation.
(A) Agriculture:Value from
harvesting nature(G) Goods:
Value from making products
(S) Services:Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things
7
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)
Collaborate(incentives)
Augment(tool)
Automate(self-service)
Delegate(outsource)
Tool SystemHuman System
Service provider helpsthe client by doing some
of it for them(in a custom way)
Service provider helpsthe client by doing all
of it for them(in a standard way)
The choice tochange work practicesrequires answeringfour key questions:
- Should we? (Business Value)- Can we? (Technology)- May we? (Governance)- Will we? (Work Priorities)
Incent People(Social systems with intentional agents)
Harness Nature(Technology systems with stochastic parts)
43
21
Z
Collaborate(1970)
Augment(1980)
Delegate(2000)
Automate(2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system
Example: Call Centers
Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computingby Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”
8
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
FOXP2 and the Evolution of Language, by Alec MacAndrewhttp://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm
…Detective story from a family with slurred speech to genes that influence brain development and enable speech (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, anthropology, primate evolution, etc.)
“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”
“With a large enough smart mob, all inferences are shallow”
Relationship oriented computing tools Amazon – Recommendation system
E-Bay – Reputation system
Google – Relevancy ranking
The Symbolic Species: The Co-Evolution of Language and the Brainby Terrence W. Deacon
The Cathedral & the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond
Smart Mobsby Howard Rheingold
Open Innovationby Henry Chesbrough
9
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Collaborate (continued)
Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Softwareby Steven Johnson
Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Ageby Duncan J. Watts
Connectionsby James Burke
WorldBoard
10
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Augment: Telerobotics
First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds
Doctor: United States Patient: France
Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Usby Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)
11
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Delegate: Outsourcing
60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization
by Thomas L. Friedman
Development as Freedomby Amartya Sen
1998 Nobel PrizeWinner Economics
Measure freedom Measure money
http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
12
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)
“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould
Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Toolingby S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham
BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated scaffold (right).F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich
Printing Organs
Printing Teeth & Bone
Printing 3D GadgetsPrinting 3D Electronics
13 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What’s Next – NBIC(S) 2.0?
– Energy 2.0:
• 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days– Manufacturing 2.0:
• Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving– Agriculture 2.0:
• Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back– Education 2.0:
• Universities as living-labs for their smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx
– Life 2.0:
• CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds– Smart 2.0
• SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.
14 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly
China Broad Group:30 Stories in 15 Days
15 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service
Ryan Chin:Urban Mobility
16 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:Test “Driver”
17 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
City challenge: buildings and transportation
Ryan Chin:Smart Cities
18 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Cities: land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities
19 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Universities key to regions
Three Streams
– Transfer knowledge
– Create knowledge
– Apply knowledgeto co-create value
Nested Holistic Systems
– Flows
– Development
– Governance
Nation
State/Province
City/Metro
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
Third Stream is about U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial
Ecosystems
20 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Nation
State/Province
City/Region
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City
“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”
“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”
InnovationsUniversities/RegionsCalculus (Cambridge/UK)Physics (Cambridge/UK)Computer Science (Columbia/NY)Microsoft (Harvard/WA)Yahoo (Stanford/CA)Google (Stanford/CA)Facebook (Harvard/CA)
21 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data)
Japan
ChinaGermany
France
United KingdomItaly
Russia SpainBrazilCanada
IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea
NetherlandsTurkey
Sweden
y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% g
loba
l G
DP
% top 500 universities
22 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What’s Important – NBIC(S) 2.0
– Theory is important (object of study)• Whole Service Systems
– individuals, family, cities, etc.• Measures
– Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience– Policymaking (rules) as important at Technology (capabilities)
• Balance WTA & IWL policies• global grand challenges, X-Prizes• Winner-Take-All and Improve-Weakest-Link
– Quality-of-Life focus is important• QoLife =
– QoService (Customer) + QoWork (Provider) + QoOpportunity (Parent)• Education
– T-shaped people– Breadth and depth
• Universities– Third stream: Apply knowledge to create value– Rankings “should” change more (for equity)
23 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Four measures
Innovativeness
Equity
Sustainability
Resiliency
24 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)24
T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth
BREADTH
DE
PT
H
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
Many culturesMany disciplines
Many systems(understanding & communications)
Deep in one d
iscip
line
Deep in one sys
tem
Deep in one cu
lture
Accelerating Change 2004
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer ([email protected])
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
Service Science, an emerging multidiscipline to accelerate the coevolution of business-technology-work innovations
Industry-Academic-GovernmentCollaboration Needed
26
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Today’s Talk
Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change – what’s really changing?12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture
12,000 year view – rise in human population
200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services – what’s that all about?
Part 2: Are services even the slightest bit interesting?Adam Smith’s view – services are parasites on the rest of the economy
Colin Clark’s view – Smith, Marx, Stalin made the error of neglecting services
Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible economy
Emergence of Service Science discipline Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?
From loosely guided to designed evolution of capabilities… (maybe)
Work-capability evolution (collaboration, augmentation, delegation, automation)
27
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change
What’s really changing?
12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture
12,000 year view – rise in human population
200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services
– what’s that all about?
28
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
12B years of capability coevolution & accelerating changeBillion Years Ago Natural Capabilities
12 Big Bang (EMST)
11.5 Milky Way (Atoms)
8 Sun (Energy)
4.5 Earth (Molecules)
3.5 Bacteria (Cell)
2.5 Sponge (Body)
0.7 Clams (Nerves)
0.5 Trilobites (Brains)
0.2 Bees (Swarms)
0.065 Mass Extinctions
0.002 Humans Tools & Clans Coevolution
Generations Ago Human Capabilities
100,000 Speech
750 Agriculture
500 Writing
400 Libraries
40 Universities
24 Printing
16 Accurate Clocks
5 Telephone
4 Radio
3 Television
2 Computer
1 Internet/e-Mail
0 GPS, DVD, WDM
Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century
by Howard Bloom
29
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
12,000 years: Human population growth from 5M to 6B people200 years: Rise of the modern managerial firm
Effects of A
griculture,C
olonial Expansion &
Econom
ics, S
cientific Method, Industrialization
& P
olitics, Education, H
ealthcare &
Information T
echnologies, etc.
The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Businessby Alfred Dupont Chandler
Rise of the m
odern managerial
firm
30
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Part 2: Are services even slightly interesting?
Adam Smith’s view – parasites on the rest of the economy
Colin Clark’s view – growing rapidly (Clark-Fisher Hypothesis)
Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible or “weightless” economy
Emergence of Service Science discipline
31
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
200 year view: Services dominate
Nation % WW
Labor% A
%G
%S
25 yr %delta S
China 21.0 50 15 35 191
India 17.0 60 17 23 28
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20
Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44
Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services
2004 2004United States
The largest labor force migrationin human history is underway,
driven by urbanization, global communications,
low cost labor, business growthand technology innovation.
(A) Agriculture:Value from
harvesting nature(G) Goods:
Value from making products
(S) Services:Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things
32
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Services in an economy drive up human capability growth
BusinessServices
Public Administration
ExtractiveSector
ManufacturingSector
InfrastructureServices
TradeServices
Social/personalServices
Consumer
Developing nations that invest in government services, health and educationservices, financial and business services, transportation services, utility services,communication services, and wholesale and retail services (growth of their service economy) create large populations of service labor – removing “un-freedoms,” doing valuable work for others. (see Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom)
Financial & informationProfessional & business
Government
Education & healthcareLeisure & hospitality
Wholesale & retailTransportation & warehousingUtilities & communication
Example: medical, legal,and IT work in India
Development as Freedomby Amartya Sen
1998 Nobel PrizeWinner Economics
Source: Dorothy I. Riddle (1986) Service-Led Growth. Praeger, NY
33
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Business of production (Solow’s model)
Production is measure of results or “goals achieved”Production per capita (Y) as a function of output per worker (L) and capital assets per worker
(K) and investment per worker (I)
Investment drives technology progress and improves the efficiency of labor; accumulates over time as capital assets
Today: Six billion people (L) with the capital assets created by one hundred billion people throughout history (K) and innovation investments (I) to increase efficiency of L, K, and I
Innovation impact will be realized in terms of…More workers (L): Healthy – healthcare services
More capital assets (K): Wealthy – financial services, retail services, transportation services
More investment (I): Wise – education services, information services, financial services
Growth Theory: An Expositionby Robert M. Solow
34
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
IT investment drives up service sector productivity growth
Worldwide IT spend36% Financial and Information Services
13% Government
9% Retail and Wholesale
8% Professional and Business Services
(20% manufacturing)
US CAGR in Labor Productivity 4.4% Financial and Information Services
3.8% Government
3.8% Retail and Wholesale
2.9% Professional and Business Services
(1.4% manufacturing)
Source: Gartner WW IT Spend
Industry Report (December 2003)
35
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Economic Distinctions & Evolution of Value GrowthEconomicOffering
CommodityGoods
PackagedGoods
CommodityServices
ConsumerServices++
BusinessServices++
Economy Agrarian Industrial Service Experience Transformation
EconomicFunction
Extract Make Deliver Stage Co-create value growth
Nature ofOffering
Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable Effectual
Key Attribute
Natural Standard Custom Personal Value growth relationship
Method ofSupply
Stored inBulk
Inventory of product
DeliveredOn Demand
Reveal overduration
Sustained over time
Seller Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager Collaborator
Buyer Market Customer Client Guest Collaborator
Factors ofDemand
Characteristics Features Benefits Sensations Capabilities(Cultural Values)
Based on (Pine & Gilmore, 1999), Table 9-1, pg 170.
The Experience Economyby B. Joseph Pine II, James H. Gilmore
36
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
What you may not know… IBM led in the creation of Computer Science departments at universities
Now IBM is working toEstablish Service Science
The biggest costs were in changing the organization. One way to think about these changes is to treat the
Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset. Firms make investments over time in developing a new
process, rebuilding their staff or designing a neworganizational structure, and the benefits from theseInvestments are realized over a long period of time.”Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”
37
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Relationship of Service Science to Existing Academic Areas:The center balances three key factors: business value, IT process, organizational culture
Process: Information Technology
Capital:BusinessDecisions
People:OrganizationalCulture
51
9 2527
14
28
10
26
24
84
1. Service Engineering
2. Service Operations
3. Service Management
4. Service Marketing
5. Social Complexity
6. Agent-based comput-ational economics
7. Computational Organization Theory
14. Computer & Information Sciences
15. Management of Innovation
16. Organization Theory
17. Operations Research
18. Systems Engineering
19. Management Science
20. Game Theory
21. Industrial Engineering
22. Marketing
23. Managerial Psychology
2367
11
12
13
1516
17
18
1920
21
22
23
1990-2004
1960-1990
1900-1960
Before 1900
8. Human Capital Management (HCM)
9. Experimental Economics
10. AI & Games
11. Management of Information Systems
12. Computer Supported Collab. Work (CSCW)
13. Human Performance Tech. & Measurement
24. Business Administration (MBA)
25. Economics
26. Law
27. Sociology
28. Education
38
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?
From old paradigm business-technology-work coevolution to a new paradigm of facilitated coevolution of capabilities to address complex, urgent problems (maybe – if we can get collectively smart enough, fast enough; problems or challenges are coevolving with capabilities)
Work evolutionImproved collaboration (communications & coordination)
Improved augmentation (tools)
Improved delegation (outsourcing)
Improved automation (self service)
39
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis)
Collaborate(incentives)
Augment(tool)
Automate(self-service)
Delegate(outsource)
Tool SystemHuman System
Service provider helpsthe client by doing some
of it for them(in a custom way)
Service provider helpsthe client by doing all
of it for them(in a standard way)
The choice tochange work practicesrequires answeringfour key questions:
- Should we? (Business Value)- Can we? (Technology)- May we? (Governance)- Will we? (Work Priorities)
Incent People(Social systems with intentional agents)
Harness Nature(Technology systems with stochastic parts)
43
21
Z
Collaborate(1970)
Augment(1980)
Delegate(2000)
Automate(2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system
Example: Call Centers
Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computingby Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”
40
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
FOXP2 and the Evolution of Language, by Alec MacAndrewhttp://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm
…Detective story from a family with slurred speech to genes that influence brain development and enable speech (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, anthropology, primate evolution, etc.)
“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”
“With a large enough smart mob, all inferences are shallow”
Relationship oriented computing tools Amazon – Recommendation system
E-Bay – Reputation system
Google – Relevancy ranking
The Symbolic Species: The Co-Evolution of Language and the Brainby Terrence W. Deacon
The Cathedral & the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond
Smart Mobsby Howard Rheingold
Open Innovationby Henry Chesbrough
41
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Collaborate (continued)
Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Softwareby Steven Johnson
Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Ageby Duncan J. Watts
Connectionsby James Burke
WorldBoard
42
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Augment: Telerobotics
First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds
Doctor: United States Patient: France
Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Usby Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)
43
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Delegate: Outsourcing
60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization
by Thomas L. Friedman
Development as Freedomby Amartya Sen
1998 Nobel PrizeWinner Economics
Measure freedom Measure money
http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
44
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)
“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould
Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Toolingby S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham
BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated scaffold (right).F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich
Printing Organs
Printing Teeth & Bone
Printing 3D GadgetsPrinting 3D Electronics
45
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
In the past, work has changed relatively slowly…
46
Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
In the service economy, work changes rapidly…
Science Technology Business
Group (outside) Social Science,Economics,Org. Behavior
Financial Services, Legal, Insurance, Government
Individual (inside/outside)
Cognitive Science
Education, Communication
Brain (inside) Neurophysiology Healthcare, Public
Cell (inside) Proteomics Healthcare, Industrial
Gene (inside) Genomics Healthcare,Distribution
Science produces D
ata, drives Info T
echT
ech underlies new P
roducts &
Services
New
Products &
Services drive
Business
Science-technology and business innovations constantly reconfigure work.Service science seeks to understand and design improved reconfigurations.
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Accelerating Change 2004
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Perhaps technology can help search for improvements in the reconfigurations space…Blue Gene, as its name suggests, is aimed at the drug-development market. Scientists hope eventually to model how proteins fold – a process that is important in designing drugs that can block cancer cells and other diseases.Computational organization theory and agent-based computational economicsare potential future directions.
36.01 teraflops (Linpack benchmark)
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Emergence of Service ScienceUnderstand service phenomena to better optimize across three levels impacted by rise of service economy
Economic goals at three levels1. Nations: Maximize GDP / Capita per year
Note nations have many other goals, including environment, health, education, defense, quality of life for citizens, high-skill, high-pay jobs, etc.
2. Businesses: Maximize Revenue / Employee and Profits / Employee per year
Note increasingly businesses are adding additional values, such as sustainable environment, work-life balance, etc.
3. Individuals: Maximize Income / Time
Note in a survey of US information technology workers, base-pay rated fourth in overall goals, behind challenge, stability, and flexibility of work experience.
Economic goals are achieved by four plans, productivity level is the key attribute1. Follow demand: Migrate labor to high productivity industries/offerings/jobs where demand exceeds supply
2. Create demand/value innovation: Invent new high productivity industries/offerings/jobs
3. Repair supply: Invest to transform low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills); including leap-frog productivity strategy
4. Protect supply: Invest to protect low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills) in an effort to buy time, and if lucky catch next wave
The study of value innovation & labor productivity are important to service scienceHistorically, what has determined the rise in demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in the demand for
particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in labor productivity in particular industries?
Already empirical evidence indicates that effective IT-enabled productivity gains requires aligning technology, business/value, and organizational culture innovations. People can resist change or help accelerate change depending on the alignment of all three factors.
As economic goals are achieved, wealth increases, and increasingly other goals take priority, hence the value of economic transactions will not simply be measured in financial terms, side-effects matter. Economic transactions will need to maximize value add beyond financial metrics.
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A Preliminary Definition of Service Science
Service Science is the study of business methods to create and capture value, technology tools to re-engineer processes, and organizational culture practices to incent and align people, and their collective impact on effectiveness and efficiency in the performance of services work.
Recent studies of IT Productivity Paradox indicate that technology tools, business methods, and organizational culture must align to achieve return on investment for IT.
The services industry must be viewed as a collection of interacting systems, where the history of the systems (legacy) matters as much as new events in understanding what should, can, may, and will happen next.
Effectiveness means working on the right things that matter to the business and efficiency means doing the work according to best practices. Productivity depends on both effective and efficient performance.
Services are typically simultaneously produced (by the provider) and consumed (by the client). The provider and the client can each be individuals, organizations, or automated systems.
PeopleHuman & Organizational
Performance(PIP = 1.1 to 10)
ProcessBusiness Optimization,
Professional Services Automation(PIP = 1.1 to 4)
CapitalValue Based Management
(PIP = 1.1 to 2)
PIP: Potential for Improvement of Performance
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Coevolution
Service ScienceIndustry
AcademicGovernmentCollaboration
History of Technology
History of Work
History of Business
Technology Projections
Work Projections
Business Projections
Technology->process change(also regulations->process change)Business->capital ROI changeWork-> people and org. change(also education->people change)
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
Accelerating Change 2004
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer ([email protected])
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
EXTRA SLIDES
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This talk…
Is about accelerating innovation…By improving technology and organizations and work
Service science to accelerate the coevolution of business-technology-work innovations
Is not about assessing risks… Is not about betting on the future...
Things That Make Us Smart: Defending Human Attributes in the Age of the Machineby Donald A. Norman Examples: Watch, Writing; Metric: Symbols & Models
Survival of the Smartest: Managing Information for Rapid Action and World-Class Performanceby Haim Mendelson, Johannes ZieglerMetric: Awareness, Decisions, Communication, Focus, Infrastr.
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Risks – not today’s talk
Privacy violations (social issues) Unequal access (social issues) Censorship (social issues) Mischief and crime (social issues) Environmental damage (systemic issues) Glitches and out of control (systemic issues) Overload (cognitive, social, and systemic issues) Also alienation, narrowing, deceit, degradation,
intrusion, inequality, etc. (and many more issues associated with new technologies of all sorts throughout the history of humans which is also (incidentally) the history of technology & organizations)
The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in Our MidstSee NetFuture (http://www.netfuture.org/) by Steve Talbott ([email protected])(also see Chapter 7of Andy Clark “Natural-Born Cyborgs” titled “Bad Borgs?”))
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Betting on the future – not today’s talk
But if you want to bet, check out Longbets.org, one of a growing number of websites dedicated to betting on the future
Many bets such as Featured Bet on 20040208: Douglas C. Hewes predicts: "By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification."read the argument »
Stuart Brand, author of “The Clock of the Long Now”Founder, Longbet.org
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What makes us smarter? Human system & Tool system
Capability evolution = things that make us smart (our organizations & tools)Growth of capabilities to create and achieve goals, intentionally and parsimoniously
Growth of win-win games over win-lose; higher payoffs; lower risks; lower maintenance (entropy)
Growth of capabilities to sense, communicate, decide, act; Growth of capabilities to bud and scale
Slowly: In the past 12 billion years (2 million years), evolution has been driving what has been making things (humans) smarter
Atoms, Molecules, Cell, Life, Body, Nerves, Brains, Swarms, Humanity…
Rapidly: In the past 200 years, organizations have been driving what has been making us smarter – business-technology-work coevolution
Citizen - 230 years ago it was government – rise of modern democracy (intangible - sustainable freedom)
Worker - 150 years ago it was business – rise of modern managerial firm (intangible - efficient value)
Consumer – 80 years ago buy more than make; Shareholder – 20 years ago; upside for growth of businesses
Very Rapidly: In the past 50 years, information technology has been driving what has been making us smarter – service economy dominates
Only in the last fifty years with the discovery of DNA (bio), creation of digital computing technology (info), ability to manipulate matter at the atomic scale (nano), and rapid advancement of cognitive science to better understand human thought processes (cogno) has information processing in natural, social, and technological substrates been perceived as “converging” – discoveries in one area leading to advances/applications in the others
Shadows in the Sun, by Wade Davis“Ethnosphere: It's really the sum total of all the thoughts, beliefs, myths, and institutions brought into being by the human imagination. It is humanity's greatest legacy, embodying everything we have produced as a curious and amazingly adaptive species.”
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Business Implications: Three examples
Healthy: More healthy people to boost effective laborOur Bodies & Our Environment
Someday Personalized Pharmaceuticals (nano for sensors, delivery, design)
Wealthy: More capital assets per worker to boost effective laborOur Material Goods (Sustainable, Cheaper, Stronger)
Someday On Demand Materials (nano for manufacturing materials)
Wise: Better investment decisions to boost efficiency of laborOur Thinking and Perception (Access to Information)
Someday Learning Conversations (nano for compute performance, interface)
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Rational drug development requires managing enormous complexity. Pharmaceutical companies are beginning to differentiate themselves on the power of their information technology platforms. IT Platform intellectual property is likely to be more valuable than content (gene sequences, metabolic pathways, protein structures, etc.)
DNA 40,000 genes (approx.100 million bases) represent less than 3% of the genome (approx. 3 billion bases). The function of the remaining 97% remains elusive.
alternative splicing turns 40,000 genes into 500,000 messages
post translational modification turns 500,000 messages into 1.5 million proteins
1.5 million proteins interacting in complex networks create hundreds of millions of metabolic pathways
hundreds of millions of pathways influenced by the environment and stochastic processes create 6 billion different individuals
Personalized Pharmaceuticals
RNA Protein Pathways Phenotype
Drugs treat phenotypes
Historically, 220 targets have generated $3trillion of value. Industrialized genome sequencing has created a target rich, lead poor environment that will slowly reverse over the next several years as in-silico biology drives the discovery of new lead compounds.
DNA to Phenotype = 300 terabytes per person x 6 billion persons = 1800 billion terabytes of data
Healthy
e.g., Modafinil enhances wakefulness and vigilance
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Material Goods
Environmentally friendly, sustainable production Cheaper, Stronger, Lighter, Durable, Active, etc. Smart, polymorphic, chromatically active materials Clothing and Textiles – stain resistant Computing technologies – roll-to-roll manufacturing Cars and Vehicles Roads Houses and Buildings Furniture and Appliances Foods
Wealthy
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Access to information & better investment decisions
Learn
ing
C
on
versation
s
WiseSemantic Web and Natural Language Capabilities
Trillions of Calculations per Second100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
11997 2000 2005 2010 2015
APPLICATIONS----------------------Human Like Behavior“HAL”
Predictive Modeling
Protein Folding
Nuclear Simulation
Chess Playing
Peter Bernstein’s against the gods…
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50 Years: Information technology connecting islands of information (created by people) into larger networks
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Scienceby Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)
0.00E+00
5.00E+16
1.00E+17
1.50E+17
2.00E+17
2.50E+17
3.00E+17
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
transistors
About 10 billion transistors made per second in 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all ICs (Source: NSF)
Growth rates for:
Nano: Transistors made per second
Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,fMRI regions scanned per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second Google searchers per second
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Model of capabilities: Outside-Inside FrameworkNature, Organizations, Technology: But where is the metric?
Relative Position Capability Areas
External (outside the body; environmental) Materials - Cost, Affordances, Dynamics
Agents – Organizations, Bots, Animals
Places – Real, Virtual, Mixed
Mediators - Tools
External (outside the body; personal) Mediators – Wearables, Mobile Tools
Internal (inside the body; temporary) Ingestibles – Medicines, Foods
Internal (inside the body; permanent) Organs – Implants, Sensor & Effectors
Skills – Learning, New Uses of Old
Genes – New Species, Devel. Process
Outside-Inside Framework can be used to analyze the past, and speculate about futures.
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Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & FutureHow much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?
- 100,000 Generations: SpeechNew Species (Kind of Agent)
New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language) - 500 : Writing
New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes) - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing
New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations) - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization) - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet
New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones) -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses) +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?)
New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive) +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?)
New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences)
New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure)
New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system)
New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge) +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?)
New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects)
Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright
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The evolution of business towards a services economy (jobs arise and decline; a rolling shift in needed jobs & skills)
0102030405060708090
100
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Services (Info)
Services (Other)
Industry (Goods)
Agriculture
Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement
U.S. Employment Percentages by Sector
The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March Exploitation versus exploration; services adapt goods to demand
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The evolution of business towards “On Demand e-Business”
Technology and business innovations are coevolving.Rapid business productivity improvements are driven by technology innovations.
Rapid technology improvements are driven by business investments.Moore’s “law” is as much a law of business investment as of technological possibilities.
(see http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution) – two systems ratchet each other up.Characteristics of an on-demand e-business.
Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizationsby Stephan H. Haeckel, Adrian J. Slywotzky
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On demand e-business is enabled by an on demand operating environment.The on demand operating environment mirrors changing work practices
Integration
Virtualized
Open Standards
Autonomic
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Social Technology
Government
Industry Groups
Business
Division
Department
Workgroup
Person
IP WAN
Metro
LAN
Data Center
Cluster
Rack
Box
Board
Chip
P-PM-M
M-P
P-M
P-M-P
M-P-M
Evolving Complexity and Interconnections
eLearning
eGovernment
Autonomic Storage
IP-based Network Storage
Storage Virtualization
SAN Mgmt
Distr and SAN-wide File System
Policy-based Automation
Interconnects
Video Area Networks
Rich Media
Wireless
Wireless
Operational Risk (FSS)
Wireless Physician
MultichannelMgmt
PLM
Telematics
eSourcing
CPG/CRMProcurement ServicesUtility
eBiz Mgmt
Edge Computing
Life Sciences
Managed Storage Services
Knowledge Mgmt
Identity Manager
ASP Hosted Platform
High Volume Linux
Linux Clusters
Server ApplianceHigh end Intel
Server Blade
Media Appliance
Grid Computing
eLiza
High Performance Computing
Photonics
Wireless 3G
Pervasive/Mobile Computing
DB2 Everywhere
Mobile Notes
Devi ce Software
Unified Communications
Broadband Game
Advanced Personal Digital Video
Wireless Client
Autonomic Client
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The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?From the search for food to the search for information
InformationInformationEnergyEnergy
MaxUseful info
TimeMaxEnergyTime [ ][ ]
Source: Pirolli (2002)
Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983)
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Cognitive Technologies: Where is the knowledge? Localized in a brain -- yours!
Remind: Capture history and augment memory
Remediate: Practice with simulation games Localized in a brain -- but someone else’s brain, soon to be yours too!
Receive: Training, for use in known context (exploitation)
Reconstruct: Education, for use in unknown context (exploration) In no one’s brain (yet) -- but someday localized in your brain and/or others.
Research: Answer question the first time
Reflect: Ask question the first time Distributed in the collective closure of brains, bodies, and technologies, “no
one’s brain”
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Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric
Knowledge in our minds is soft capability Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and
games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can
estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal given the cognitive capabilities of the system.
How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals? How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making,
and execution performance?
Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence
by Andy Clark “…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)
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Meta Trends: Exponential Growth
Moore's Law - Miniaturization - ContinuesProcessing, Storage, ...Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months
Metcalf's Law - Interconnection - ContinuesValue of a network increases as the square of the number
connections Gilder's Law - Quantization - Continues
Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months Negraponte's "Law - Digitization - Emerges
Superiority of "bits over atoms"Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas
are ultimate raw material
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Key Megatrends Driving Venture Investment
Switching is shifting from circuits to packets. Data, then voice; Backbone, then access
Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic.First long haul, then metro, then local access
Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net.IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net
Offerings are moving from products to services."Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, ... knowledge
Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silicoFirst Genomics, then Proteomics, ... nanotechnologies
Key Megashifts
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The science: nano-bio-cogno-socio-techno convergence:It’s all about information – encoding, processing, replicating – in different systems (ultimately all grounded in matter patterns)
System Encoding Processing Replicating
Nano Matter(Nature)
Atoms & Molecules
Universe to Atoms
Galactic, Solar, Planet Systems
Bio Life (Nature)
DNA Cells to Ecosystems
Evolution
Cogno Thought (Nature/Human)
Brains Neural Nets Evolution - Culture
Socio Culture (Human)
People Organizations Evolution - Culture
Techno Technology (Human)
Artifacts & Bits Computers Design-Factories
Examples: FOXP2, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) – Variability, Interaction, Selection
Coevolutio
n
Rapidly increasing rates of advancement in each system area is creating cross pollination
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Biocomplexity: Much prettier picture than my table!
Rita Colwell,Former Director National Science Foundation (NSF)
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IBM’s business is helping customers transform their businesses. Services is now 50% of IBM, with rapid growth from strategic outsourcing, help desk, business consulting.
IBM 101 – The New (Post 1995) IBM EcosystemRevenue: $80+ Billion/YearEmployees: 320,000+, about 50% inside-US, 50% outside-USIBM Global Services, approx. 170,000 people in 120 countries
•Services(IGS)
•Middleware/Software(SWG)
•Sales(S&D)
•Finance (IGF)•Boxes/Hardware
(Servers, Storage, Personal)
•Chips/Technology(IMD, TG)
•PartnerWorld(Developer Relations)
•IBM Research
•IBM’s Customers
•IBM’s Partners
•IB
M’s
Platform
•(DB2, WS, Rational, Tivoli, Lotus)
•Alternate providers
•Alternate vendors
•IB
M’s
Services
• IB
M’s Industry
Solutions
Accelerating Change 2004
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer ([email protected])
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
HELP ME DO IT MANAGE IT FOR ME
TELL ME WHAT TO DO
Integrated Technology Services Integrated Technology Services
Business Innovation Services Business Innovation Services
e-business e-business
Hosting ServicesHosting Services
e-business Strategy Consulting
Industry Solutions
Web Application & Integration
e-business Infrastructure
Hardware Integration Alliances
New Technologies: Linux, SAN, Wireless
Technical Support Services
Colocation to Fully Managed Services
e-sourcing
Strategic Strategic
Outsourcing Outsourcing ServicesServices
Outsourcing Services
Application Management
IBM Global Services Provides e-business Services
Learning ServicesLearning Services
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ODIS 101: On-Demand Innovation Services (ODIS) sets the stage for the next generation researcher – one that is closely tuned with real-world client issues to drive and validate innovations, technological-organizational-business perspectives. Requires new academic collaborations beyond technological.
1970’s-80’s1970’s-80’s 80’s-90’s80’s-90’s 90’s-00’s90’s-00’s
Research
Focus
Centrally funded Joint programsResearch in the
marketplace
Researchers
IBM
Offering
Centrally DeterminedCorporate Issues
Collaborative AgendaDetermined with Brands
Agenda Linked to Client Issues
In the LabSome Joint
Development with Clients
Some Researchers inthe Marketplace
Hardware Software Services
On Demand Innovation
Create business
advantage for clients
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IBM Research Worldwide
Accelerating Change 2004
November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer ([email protected])
Director, Almaden Services Research
Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928
http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
Thanks for your attention.
Suggestions and ideas are welcome. E-mail [email protected] or Jim Spohrer/Almaden/IBM.
79 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Outline
The Global Opportunity (IBM Perspective)– 1000’s of Smarter Cities Projects– Example: Rio De Janeiro– Analytics, Cloud, Growth Markets, Universities– Individuals & Institutions Learning Together– T-Shaped People & Regional Smart Camp Entrepreneurs
Smarter Planet = Smarter Human-Serving Systems– Smarter Planet
• Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent• Internet-of-Things, Cloud Computing, Analytics
– Quality-of-Life (QoL)• Less waste in flows (energy, materials, etc.)• More development of capabilities• Better governance and decision-making
Service Science, Service Systems & Measurement– Service = applying knowledge to benefit others (value-cocreation)– Service science studies human-serving systems (service systems)– Service systems = configure individuals, infrastructure, institutions, information– QoL matters, university & urban innovations matter to business & society– Business Measures = Productivity, Quality, Compliance, Innovation– Societal Measures = Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience
80 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
IBM GMU External Relations 201281
IBM GMU External Relations 201282
• For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a smarter outcome for organizations
• The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize clients’ business
• Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010
Analytics is enabling clients with trusted and relevant information in REAL TIME
IBM GMU External Relations 201282
Through to 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to exploit ‘big data’ for competitive advantage
--Gartner Predictions 2012
IBM GMU External Relations 201283
Developing capabilities that improve visibility, control and automation of cloud computing services
IBM GMU External Relations 2012
Private & Hybrid CloudsCloud Enablement technologies
Managed Cloud ServicesInfra & platform as a Service
Cloud Business SolutionsSoftware & Business Process as a Service
Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems
IBMSmartCloud
IBMSmartCloudSolutions
IBMSmartCloudServices
IBMSmartCloudFoundation
Business Process as a ServiceSoftware as a Service
Platform as a Service
Infrastructure as a Service
IBM GMU External Relations 20128484
IBM GMU External Relations 201285
Established presence in many Growth Market countries...
85
IndiaSouth Asia
CentralEasternEurope
Middle EastAfrica
SofiaZagrebPrague
BrnoOstravaTallinn
BudapestAlmaty
RigaVilnius
WarsawWroclawKrakowGdansk
KatowicePoznan
BucharestTimisoara
UfaKazan
Rostov-on-DonSamara
PermNovosibirrskKrasnoyarsk
MoscowSt PetersburgEkaterinburg
BelgradeBratislava
Banska BystricaKosice
LjubljanaAnkara
IstanbulIzmire
DnepropetrovskKiev
Tashkent
Australia New Zealand
BrisbaneSydney
AucklandPerth
AdelaideHobart
BallaratMelbourneWellington
ChristchurchLower Hutt
ASEAN
Bandar Seri BegawanJakarta
SurabayaMedan
MakassarManila
CebuChiangmai
BangkokPattayaDaNang
Ho Chi Minh City
GreaterChinaGroup
BeijingHong Kong
TaipeiHefei
XiamenChongqing
ShanghaiBeijingTianjin
FuzhouGuangzhou
ShenzhenNanjingHarbin
ShijiazhuangWuhan
ZhengzouChangsha
ChangchunNanningSuzhou
NanchangShenyang
DalianTaiyuahQingdao
JinanXi’an
ChengduUrumchiKunming
HangzhouNingbo
Korea
SeoulDaejeon Daegu
KwangjuPusan
LatinAmericaBuenos Aires
CordobaRosario
Rio de JaneiroSalvadorFortalez
Belo HorizonteUberlandia
RecifeCuritiba
Porto AlegreCampinas
JoinvilleAnto fogasta
MedellinCali
GuayaquilGuadalajara
MonterreyQueretaro
Lima
ChandigarhDehradun
DelhiGurgaon
NoidaJaipur
LucknowGuwahati
AhmedabadIndore
MumbaiKolkata
PuneBhubaneshwar
HyderabadVizag
BangaloreChennai
CoimbatoreKochiNasik
ColomboDakkar
LuandaQatar
AlexandriaCairoAccra
NairobiCasablanca
Port LouisLagos
KarachiIslamabad
LahoreRiyadhDakar
JohannesburgPretoriaDurban
Cape TownPort ElizabethBloemfontein
Dar es SalaamTunis
Abu DhabiDubai
OuangadougouN’Djamena
KinshasaLibreville
AccraLilongwe
AntananarivoNiamey
SeychellesFreetownKampala
Lusaka
IBM GMU External Relations 201286
Evolving regional talent & skills
IBM GMU External Relations 201286
IBM is making long term investments to develop talent for the growth markets
Collaboration with UniversitiesIBM works with 5,000 universities and 10,000 faculties around the globe. We have joint initiatives and investments with universities in Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt, China and Africa to encourage the training of skills required.
Government Partnerships
By helping governments to establish new national research facilities, we are helping to create new industries, helping to develop long terms skills curriculums like SSME.
Global Placements & MentoringTransferring knowledge and expertise to the growth markets is critical. One of the ways we do this is to move experts into the market to coach and train local teams.
87 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)87
Our Past, Present, Future: Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together
Any Device Learning
TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION
PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS
Student-Centered Processes
KNOWLEDGE SKILLS
Learning Communities
GLOBAL INTEGRATION
Services Specialization
ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT
Systemic View of Education
Intelligent• Aligned Data• Outcomes Insight
Instrumented• Student-centric• Integrated Assessment
Interconnected• Shared Services• Interoperable Processes
ContinuingEducation
HigherEducation
SecondarySchool
PrimarySchool
WorkforceSkills
Individuals Learning Continuum TheEducationalContinuum
Institutio
ns Learn
ing Contin
uum
EconomicSustainability
http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html
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88
Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.
SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press in Wall Street Journal, Forbes and Bloomberg
- in
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th
apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcampapply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp
Exclusive Networking andMentoring eventExclusive Networking andMentoring event
North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, [email protected] Programs lead: Dawn Tew, [email protected]
89 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What is Smarter Planet?3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions)
INSTRUMENTED
We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.
INTERCONNECTED
People, systems and objects can communicate
and interact with each other in entirely new
ways.
INTELLIGENT
We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results
by predicting and optimizing
for future events.
WORKFORCE
PRODUCTS
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
IT NETWORKS
90 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What improves Quality-of-Life? Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations
A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)1. Transportation & supply chain
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment
3. Food & products manufacturing
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
20/10/10
0/19/0
2/7/42/1/1
7/6/11/1/0
5/17/27
1/0/2
24/24/1
2/20/247/10/3
5/2/2
3/3/10/0/0
1/2/2
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
* = US Labor % in 2009.
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
StakeholderPriorities
Education
Research
Business
Government
StakeholderPriorities
Education
Research
Business
Government
Service Systems
Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation
Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information
Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems
B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks
Service Systems
Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation
Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information
Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems
B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks
Service Science
To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems
Systematically create, scale and improve systems
Foundations laid by existingdisciplines
Progress in academic studies and practical tools
Gaps in knowledge and skills
Service Science
To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems
Systematically create, scale and improve systems
Foundations laid by existingdisciplines
Progress in academic studies and practical tools
Gaps in knowledge and skills
Develop programmes & qualifications
Develop programmes & qualifications
Service Innovation
Growth in service GDP and jobs
Service quality & productivity
Environmental friendly & sustainable
Urbanisation &aging population
Globalisation & technology drivers
Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals
Service Innovation
Growth in service GDP and jobs
Service quality & productivity
Environmental friendly & sustainable
Urbanisation &aging population
Globalisation & technology drivers
Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals
Skills& Mindset
Skills& Mindset
Knowledge& Tools
Knowledge& Tools
Employment& Collaboration
Employment& Collaboration
Policies & Investment
Policies & Investment
Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015
Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015
Encourage an interdisciplinary approach
Encourage an interdisciplinary approach
The white paper offers a starting point to -
The white paper offers a starting point to -
Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress(http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/)
Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008)
Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate
1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions
92 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
US National Academy of Engineering Grand ChallengesA. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need
1. Transportation & Supply Chain
Restore and enhance urban infrastructure
2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech
Provide access to clear water
3. Food & Products
Manager nitrogen cycle
4. Energy & Electricity
Make solar energy economical
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration methods
5. Information & Communication Technology
Enhance virtual reality
Secure cyberspace
Reverse engineer the brain
B. Systems that focus on human activity & development6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)
Restore and enhance urban infrastructure
7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)
Enhance virtual reality
8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting
9. Healthcare & Family Life
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Reverse engineer the brain
10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship
Advance personalized learning
Engineer the tools of scientific discovery
C. Systems that focus on human governance11. City & Security
Restore and improve urban infrastructure
Secure cyberspace
Prevent nuclear terror
12. State/Region & Development
13. Nation & Rights
93 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://w
ww
.measureofam
erica.org/docs/AP
ortraitOfC
A.pdf
94 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Imagining quality-of-life innovations…
95 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
A Framework for Global Civil Society
Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society.
– John Sexton, President NYU
96 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
Upcoming Conferences– July 2012
• ISSS San Jose• HSSE San Francisco
More Information– Blog
• www.service-science.info– Twitter
• @JimSpohrer– Presentations
• www.slideshare.net/spohrer– Email
97 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Thank-You! Questions?
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion & Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) [email protected]
“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes
98
SERVICE(Value-Cocreation)
AS-ISTarget & Context
TO-BETarget &Context
Aspirations
Goals Constraints
Responsibilities
Needs
Wants OUTCOME
Target &Context
IF-REDONETarget &Context
Learning
Side Effects
Experience
Unintended Consequences
Gaps
InsightsSHAREDINFORMATION
Plans
Procedures
Flowcharts
Rules
Policies
Regulations
Templates
Schedules
Diagrams/ Schematics
Instructions
ORGANIZATIONS
Software
Applications
Equipment
InfrastructureTools
VehiclesHardware
TECHNOLOGY/ENVIRONMENT
Users
IntermediariesAgents
Managers
Customers
Employees
Engineers
Contractors
PEOPLE
Consultants
Buildings
Expectations
Relationships
Disputes
Suppliers
Competitors
GovernmentAgencies
Third PartiesBanks
Insurance
Web Communities
eBusinesses
Benefits
Sacrifices
Shareholders
Criminals
Prices
Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization)
99 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?
Economics & Law
Design/ Cognitive Science Systems
Engineering
OperationsComputer Science/
Artificial Intelligence
Marketing
“a service system is ahuman-made system to improve provider-customer interactionsand value-cocreation outcomes,
by dynamically configuring resourceaccess via value propositions,
most often studied by many disciplines,one piece at a time.”
“service science isthe transdisciplinary study of
service systems &value-cocreation”
The ABC’s:The provider (A)
and a customer (B)transform a target (C)
100 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities
transportation & supply chain water &
waste
food &products
energy & electricity
building & construction
healthcare& family
retail &hospitality banking
& finance
ICT &cloud
education &work
citysecure
statescale
nationlaws
social sciences
behavioral sciences
management sciences
political sciences
learning sciences
cognitive sciences
system sciences
information sciences
organization sciences
decision sciences
run professions
transform professions
innovate professions
e.g., econ & law
e.g., marketing
e.g., operations
e.g., public policy
e.g., game theory and strategy
e.g., psychology
e.g., industrial eng.
e.g., computer sci
e.g., knowledge mgmt
e.g., stats & design
e.g., knowledge worker
e.g., consultant
e.g., entrepreneur
stake
holders Customer
Provider
Authority
Competitors
resources
People
Technology
Information
Organizations
change History
(Data Analytics)
Future(Roadmap)
value
Run
Transform(Copy)
Innovate(Invent)
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Realize Value (To-Be)
disciplines
systems
101 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe
IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide
2011 Financials Revenue - $ 106.9B Net Income - $ 15.9B EPS - $ 13.44 Net Cash - $16.6B
22% of IBM’s revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 11% in 2011
Number 1 in patent generation for 19 consecutive years ; 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011
More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office
5 Nobel Laureates
9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer
“Let’s Build a Smarter Planet"
The Smartest Machine On Earth
100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011
IBM’s Leadership Changes
55% of IBM’s Workforce is New to the company in the last 5 years
102 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Up-SkillCycle
University-Region1University-Region1
University-Region2University-Region2
= New Venture
= Acquisition
= High-Growth Acquisition/ New IBM BU (Growing)
= High-Productivity/ Mature IBM BU (Shrinking)
= IBMer moving from mature BU to acquisition
= IBMer moving intoIBMer on Campus role(help create graduateswith Smarter-Planet skills,help create Smarter Planetoriented new ventures;Refresh skills
= Graduates withSmarter Planet skills
IBMIBM
103 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains
World as System of SystemsWorld (light blue - largest)Nations (green - large)States (dark blue - medium)Cities (yellow - small)Universities (red - smallest)
Cities as System of Systems-Transportation & Supply Chain-Water & Waste Recycling-Food & Products ((Nano)-Energy & Electricity-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)-Buildings & Construction-Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment-Banking & Finance-Healthcare & Family (Bio)-Education & Professions (Cogno)-Government (City, State, Nation)
Nations: Innovation Opportunities- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)
Developed MarketNations
(> $20K GDP/Capita)
Emerging MarketNations
(< $20K GDP/Capita)
104 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Installation DeploymentIrruption
The Industrial Revolution
Age of Steam and Railways
Age of Steel, Electricityand Heavy EngineeringAge of Oil, Automobilesand Mass ProductionAge of Information and Telecommunications
Frenzy Synergy Maturity
Panic1797
Depression
1893
Crash
1929
Credit Crisis 2008
Coming period ofInstitutional Adjustment and Production Capital
1
2
3
4
5
Panic1847
1771
1829
1875
1908
1971
1873
1920
1974
1829
Crash
•Formation of Mfg. industry
•Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade
•Standards on gauge, time•Catalog sales companies •Economies of scale
•Urban development•Support for interventionism
•Build-out of Interstate highways
•IMF, World Bank, BIS
Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).
~250 years of infrastructure transformations
105 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
~100 years of US job transformations
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
106 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…
Four I’s– Infrastructure
– Individuals
– Institutions
– Information
Four Measures– Innovativeness
– Equity
– Sustainability
– Resiliency
Societal Infrastructure(Technologies & Environment)
Individuals(Skills)
Institutions(Rules, Jobs)
Cultural Information(Quality-of-Life Measures)
107 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge
L
LearningTo Apply Knowledge
Exploitation Exploration
Run Transform Innovate
Operations
Maintenance
Insurance
Incremental
Radical
Super-Radical
Internal
External
Interaction
Copy It
Invent ItDo It
March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.
108 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Service Science: Conceptual Framework
Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged
Ecology(Populations & Diversity)
Entities(Service Systems, both Individuals & Institutions)
Interactions(Service Networks,
link, nest, merge, divide)
Outcomes(Value Changes, both
beneficial and non-beneficial)
Value Proposition (Offers & Reconfigurations/
Incentives, Penalties & Risks)
Governance Mechanism (Rules & Constraints/
Incentives, Penalties & Risks)
Access Rights(Relationships of Entities)
Measures(Rankings of Entities)
Resources(Competences, Roles in Processes,
Specialized, Integrated/Holistic)
Stakeholders(Processes of Valuing,
Perspectives, Engagement)
Identity(Aspirations & Lifecycle/
History)
Reputation(Opportunities & Variety/
History)
prefer sustainable non-zero-sum
outcomes,i.e., win-win
win-win
lose-lose win-lose
lose-win
Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or“It's all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201.
109 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Time
ECOLOGY
14BBig Bang
(NaturalWorld)
10KCities
(Human-MadeWorld)
sun (energy)
writing(symbols and scribes,
stored memoryand knowledge)
earth(molecules &
stored energy)
written laws(governance and
stored control)
bacteria(single-cell life)
sponges(multi-cell life)
money(governed
transportable valuestored value,
“economic energy”)
universities(knowledge workers)
clams (neurons)trilobites (brains)
printing press (books)steam engine (work)200M
bees (socialdivision-of-labor)
60
transistor(routine
cognitive work)
Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate?In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds…
Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations…To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum
Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS)
110 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Measuring Impact
SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR
• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)
– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities
– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications
– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations
– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions
– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)
Service Research, a Portfolio Approach– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)
– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)
– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)
– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)
– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)
– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)
111 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Who I am
Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009– Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university)
– Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility
– Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”)
– Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs Founding Director of IBM's first Service Research group from 2003-2009
– Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
– 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards
– Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications
– I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines• I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D)
– Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline)– Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool)
• I advocate for SRII (“one of the founding fathers”)• Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)
Other background (late 90’s and before)– Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley
– Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)
– Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)
– B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)
112 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Eleven levels of systems
Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example
0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim
1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s
2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington
3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land
4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified
5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara
6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County
7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA
8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA
9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA
10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN
113 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Societal resiliency includes all levels
Matryoska dolls:Origin Japanese
114 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…
Kurzweilai.net