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JIPOE KULLAAWSEMINAR FOXTROT
1. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
2. DESCRIBING THE OPNL ENVIRONMENT
3. EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY
4. DETERMINING THE ADVERSARY’S COURSES OF ACTIONS (COAs)
JIPOE STEPS
DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
• AREA OF INTEREST• AREA OF INFLUENCE• AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY• JOA (based on para 6- CN Guidance dated 04 Jul 14)• SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF OPNL
ENVIRONMENT• INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION
REQUIREMENTS
CONSISTS OF:
• NOLCOM AOR:
ILOCOS REGION CAGAYAN VALLEY
REGION CORDILLERA REGION CENTRAL LUZON REGION
• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE
• SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF NUVARIA (SRN)
• DEVORA ISLAND
AREA OF INTEREST
South Basin
TaklubuReef
CONSISTS OF:• AOR OF NOLCOM
ILOCOS REGION CAGAYAN VALLEY
REGION (INCLUDING LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE)
CORDILLERA REGION CENTRAL LUZON
REGION
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
South Basin
TaklubuReef
Area of Responsibility
Particular Coverage
Land Area (Sq Km) 65,757
Region 4
Provinces 22
Districts 49
Cities 27Municipalities 398
Barangays 9,854Population (Million) 19.2
CONSISTS OF:
• NE LUZON SPODs & APODs
• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE
• EXTENDS UP TO DEVORA ISLAND AND NW PART OF NUVARIA (RAMEY AIRBASE)
AREA OF INFLUENCE
South Basin
TaklubuReef
PROPOSED JOA WILL BE:
• NE LUZON SPODs & APODs
• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE
• PHL EEZ (200 NM) EAST, NORTH AND SOUTH OF LACUHA
• CONTAGIOUS AND TERRITORIAL WATERS WEST OF LACUHA ISLAND
• AIRSPACES IN LACUHA AND NE LUZON
PROPOSED JOA
South Basin
TaklubuReef
F-27 X 1
PROPOSED JOA Taklubu Reef
South Basin
100NM
SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF
PROPOSED JOA(PMESII)
PROPOSED JOA
POLITICALGEOPOLITICAL SITUATION:
• MAURINII ANTONIO DE LOPEZ INSTALLED AS PRESIDENT OF SRN IN 2003 AFTER A BLOODY COUP DE ETAT
• DE LOPEZ INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING IN NAF & RENEWED NATIONALISM FOR THE CLAIM OF LACUHA
• THE PHL ASKED ASSISTANCE FROM THE US THROUGH THE MDT
PROPOSED JOA
POLITICALGEOPOLITICAL SITUATION:
• FEB 2014 - NUVARIAN AMBASSADOR TO PHL WAS RECALLED
• RECALLED NUVARIANS FROM THE PHL
• Established as a province in 1965 - RA 11175
• Capital: Sta Cruz town
• Internationally recognized as an island province of Cagayan, Philippines
• Continuously claimed by Nuvaria as part of its territory
POLITICAL
Lacuha Island
Gasan
• 6 Municipalities:
Mogpog, Sta Cruz, Boac, Gasan, Buenavista, and Torrijos
• Municipalities headed by Mayor.
• Gov. Magtanggol Magtapat – holds office in Tuguegarao
• l2 Provl Board members
• 2 Congressional Districts
POLITICAL
• Major Political Parties: Nacionalista Party
Liberal Party
Lakas-NUCD
Kampi
Partido ng Masang Pil
Kilusang Bagong Lipunan
POLITICAL
Lacuha Island
Gasan
• No AFP units in Lacuha Island at present
• PPSC stationed in Sta Cruz (350 PNP)
MILITARY – FRIENDLY
PNP
CAR
Region IIRegion I
Region III
5th Inf Div, PACamp Melchor Dela Cruz, Upi, Gamu, Isabela
501st Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Banguinge, Kiangan, Ifugao
502nd Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Suyong, Echague, Isabela
503rd Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Calanan, Tabuk City, Kalinga
7th Inf Div, PAFort Ramon Magsaysay, Palayan City, Nueva Ecija
702nd Inf Bde, 7ID, PABrgy San Isidro Norte, Binmaley, Pangasinan
703rd Inf Bde, 7ID, PABrgy San Juan Baño, Arayat, Pampanga
Naval Forces Northern Luzon
NSEO, Poro Point, San Fernando, La Union
NBCO, Brgy San Vicente, Sta Ana, Cagayan
TOG1,Loakan Airport, Baguio City
TOG2,School,Cauyan City, Isabela
TOG3, Camp Aquino, San Miguel, Tarlac City
TOGs, 1AD
17
NOLCOM MAINLAND FORCES
JTF-NCR (Rapid Reaction Force)
• 1 Inf Bn (Airmobile ops capable)
• 1 Mech Inf Bn
• 1 Marine Bn (Amphi Ops capable)
• 1 Squadron Tactical Helis
• 1 Squadron CAS A/cft
• 1 Heavy Airlift A/cft
• 1 Strategic Sealift Vessel
MILITARY – FRIENDLY
NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF)
• MOD LOCATED IN SAN JUAN
• GHQ AND FLEET HQS LOCATED AT SABANA SECA NAVAL BASE
• NAVAL INFANTRY HQ & BDES LOCATED AT CAMP SANTIAGO MARINE BASE
• AIR FORCE HQ & 5TH & 6TH BOMBER WINGS LOCATED AT RAMEY AIR BASE
• 1ST, 2ND, 3RD,& 4TH FIGHTER WINGS LOCATED AT BUCHANAN AIR STATION
• ARMY HQ & ALL ARMY BDES LOCATED AT FORT ALLEN
• ESTABLISHING CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES
Sabana Seca Naval Base
Camp Santiago Marine Base
Ramey Air Base
Buchanan Air Station
Fort Allen
NUVARIA
MILITARY – ADVERSARY
NAF JTF
• West Nuvarian Fleet
• 7th Air Force Group
• 2nd Naval Inf Bde
• Nuvarian SPF
MILITARY – ADVERSARY NAF FORCES THREATENING TO INVADE LACUHA ISLAND
• AGRICULTURE - MAIN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (48% EMPLOYED)
• 58% OF THE TOTAL LAND AREA (95,925 Has.) ARE CULTIVATED; 66% - COCONUTS; 18% PALAY
• FISHING IS THE NEXT SOURCE OF INCOME AFTER FARMING; 75% SHIPPED OUTSIDE THE PROVINCE
ECONOMIC
• NO SHOPPING MALLS
• NO MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES
• NINE COMMERCIAL BANKS
• HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 11.8% IN 2005
• POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL: 44.8% (2008)
ECONOMIC
• TOTAL POPULATION AS OF 2010 IS 227,828
• COMPOSITION OF TRIBES: 70% IVATANS 20% ILONGOTS 10% IBANAGS
• SRN ASSERTS THAT MORE THAN HALF THE POPULATION ARE OF NUVARIAN DESCENT
SOCIAL
Lacuha Island
Gasan
• AIRPORT LOCATED AT GASAN
• WATER SYTEM: LEVEL II SYSTEM (PIPED WATER
W/ COMMUNAL WATER POINT IN TOWN AREAS
LEVEL I (STAND ALONE WATER POINTS (HAND PUMPS, WELLS) IN RURAL AREAS
• POWER SYSTEM: 14.35 MW W/ AVE CAPACITY
OF 200 KW
DIESEL POWERED.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Gasan Airport
Boac Port Santa Cruz Port
Balanacan Port
• PORTS LOCATED AT BALANACAN, STA CRUZ, GASAN, AND BOAC:
BERTHING AREA/S: TWO (2) RORO RAMPS – 11.00M X 9.00MR.C. WHARF – 83 LN.M.DRAFT: TWO (2) RORO RAMPS – 9.00M DEEPR.C. WHARF – 9.00M DEEP
INFRASTRUCTURE
Gasan Port
• PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL IN BOAC - 100-BED CAPACITY
• STA CRUZ DISTRICT HOSPITAL - 25-BED CAPACITY
• TORRIJOS MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL - 10-BED CAPACITY
INFRASTRUCTURE – HEALTH
Lacuha Island
Provincial Jail
INFRASTRUCTURE – PRISON
• 120 -KM CIRCUMFERENTIAL ROAD
• 98 PERCENT - ALL-WEATHER ROAD
• NEARLY 100 PERCENT ARE WELL-PAVED.
MSR
• GLOBE AND SMART
• WITH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES
INFORMATION
• Adversary Where will the lodgement forces of NAF JTF land?
What are the targeted military objectives of the NAF JTF in Lacuha and in mainland NLuzon?
What is the current locations of the NAF UAVs and the 2 spy ships spotted in Taklubu reef?
Are all forces of NAF JTF deployed already at Fleet base Kailua Kona in Devora Island?
INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
• Operational Environment
What are the expected weather conditions in the next two weeks? What is the reaction of the majority of local populace in Lacuha for the impending Nuvarian invasion? What political parties/organisations/entities in Lacuha are supportive of the Nuvarian claim?
INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
DESCRIBING THE IMPACT OF THE OPERATIONAL EVIRONMENT
• PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS• HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS• OTHER STAKEHOLDERS• INFORMATIONAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS• METEOROLOGICAL & OCEANAGRAPHIC (METOC)
ANALYSIS• OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL DEDUCTIONS• NODE LINK ANALYSIS
Lacuha Island
Gasan
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
• Lakuha is a “heart-shape” island province of PH
• Total Land area = 95,258 Ha
• NE of the PH approx. 100 miles from mainland Luzon
Highest peak Mount Malindig - 1,157 m (3,796 ft.) ASL, located in the southern tip of the island
GEOGRAPHY
Lacuha Island
Gasan
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
Various cave occupies the province (Grand Bathala Cave & San Isidro Cave with complex subterranean river
Very advantageous for defensive operations.
GEOGRAPHY
Lacuha Island
Gasan
LAND DIMENSION
Approx. 83% - hills and mountains area
17% built-up areas, coastal, swamp, and marshy areas
Terrain is rocky but gentle and undulating
Mountainous interior - home to rare and endangered flora and fauna.
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
Lacuha Island
Gasan
LAND DIMENSION
Hills drop steeply - maximum elevation of 1,157 m (3,796 ft) ASL
Ideal for sustained defensive operations
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
- HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
- BUILT-UP AREAS
- COASTAL, SWAMP, AND MARSHY AREAS
- PLAIN/FLAT
- MT. MALINDIG/ HIGHEST PEAK
LEGEND:
Lacuha Island
Gasan
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
LAND DIMENSION
LEGEND:
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
LAND DIMENSION Lacuha Island
Gasan
- RESTRICTED TERRAIN
- SEVERELY RESTRICTED TERRAIN
MARITIME DOMAIN
• Lacuha is home to myriad of corals and sea creatures
• Sea condition is calm especially during summer and SE monsoon.
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
Lacuha Island
Gasan
Lacuha Island
Gasan
MARITIME DIMENSION
• SPODS BALANACAN – LSV CAWIT – LSV LAYLAY - PG BUYABOD - PG GASAN - PG STA CRUZ – LSV TORRIJOS – PG
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
Lacuha Island
Gasan
AIR AND SPACE DOMAIN
• APODS MASIGA – C130
CAPABLE TAPIAN – C130
CAPABLE GASAN- C130
CAPABLE
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
ADIZ
ADIZ
ADIZ
ADIZ
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSISAIR AND SPACE DIMENSION
HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS
POPULATION - 227,000
ETHNIC COMPOSITION: 70% IVATANS; 20% ILONGOTS; &10% IBANAGS - PURELY FILIPINO AND WILL RESIST NUV INVASION
POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL :44.8%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE :11.8%
HIGH POVERTY INCIDENCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENEMY ISA
HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS
PEACE-LOVING PEOPLE (ONLY 350 PNP PERSONNEL MAINTAIN PEACE AND ORDER)
PEOPLE OF LACUHA ARE NOTABLY SERIOUS IN THEIR EXERCISE OF SUFFRAGE INDICATING STRONG PATRIOTIC SENSE
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
UN: DOES NOT SUPPORT THE NUVARIAN CLAIM OVER LACUHA ISLAND- THIS COULD MAKE THE NUVARIAN LEADERSHIP RESORT TO DESPERATE MEASURES.
US: SUPPORTS THE DIPLOMATIC AND PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE TERRITORIAL DISPUTE - THIS COULD MEAN NON-INTERVENTION BY THE US IN THE EVENT OF A MILITARY ACTION BY NUV IN LACUHA.
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
NUVARIAN TOURISTS AND INVESTORS IN THE PH- WILL LIKELY FLEE AND WILL PULL OUT THEIR PORTFOLIOS
FILIPINO WORKFORCE AT NUV FACTORIES AND HOUSEHOLDS: PH WILL HAVE TO PLAN FOR CONTINGENCY EVACUATION
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
OIL EXPLORATION INDUSTRY- SITUATION MAY CAUSE INVESTMENT JITTERY AND MAY PROPEL OIL PRICES TO SHOOT UP
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (IC)- FIRM COLLECTIVE POSTURE BY THE IC UNDER DURESS OF ECONOMIC OR MILITARY SANCTIONS COULD BE A DETERRENT TO HOSTILE ACTIONS
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
TOURIST/HOTEL INDUSTRY- WILL SIGNIFICANTLY FEEL THE INDIRECT BRUNT OF THE CONFLICT WITH LOWER REVENUES
PNP, COASTGUARD AND PARA-MILITARY FORCES- MAY BE DEPLOYED AND WILL TAKE A SECONDARY SUPPORT ROLE TO THE AFP EFFORTS.
INFORMATION TERRAIN ANALYSIS DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES IS
PROVIDED BY GLOBE AND SMART
INTERNET ALLOWS FOR INTERCONNECTIVITY AND ACCESS TO NON-MILITARY OPEN SOURCE SYSTEMS AND IS THE PRIMARY MODE OF DELIVERY OF DATA INFORMATION
CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES OF BOTH FORCES COULD INFLUENCE THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
NOLCOM CEIS CAPABILITY MAY NOT WORK WELL IN LACUHA ISLAND
WEATHER / CLIMATE
• Type III Climate – rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year/no clear boundary between dry and wet
• Double during May – October (Monsoon Season)
• Temperature bet 27°C to 32°C
• Humidity av e= 78% year round
• Ave rainfall 2,034.6 mm
• Driest period: January – April
• Annual precipitation: 910 mm (36in)
• Coastal region: 101-381 mm
• Higher ground: 508 mm
METOC ANALYSIS
WEATHER / CLIMATE
CONDITION PERIODNorth-East Monsoon (Amihan)
November - April
South-West Monsoon (Habagat)
July - October
Favorable for Sea Travel May - June
METOC ANALYSIS
CLIMATOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS
Mission Area JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
AIR
MARITIME
GROUND
AMPH
UNRESTRICTED MODERATERESTRICTION
SEVERERESTRICTION
METOC ANALYSIS
EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:SITUATION EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS EFFECT ON FF COAS
TROPICAL RAINFORESTS PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM (COVER, WATER, AND FOOD.)
PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM, SUPPORT OF COMMUNITIES.
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS MOBILITY HAMPERED BY RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS.
LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.
CAUSES INTERFERENCES TO LOS COMMU EQIPT
MOBILITY HAMPERED BY RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS
LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.
INTERFERENCES TO LOS COMMU EQUIPT
CONCENTRATION OF DRRO DURING TYPHOON (LANDSLIDE AND FLASHFLOODS) AND FOREST FIRES DURING DRY SEASON
SITUATION EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS
EFFECT ON FF COAS
GENERALLY SURROUNDED BY COASTLINE
ADVANTAGEOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS OPNS
OBSTACLE POSITIONS HAMPER MOBILITY
ADVANTAGEOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS OBSTACLE POSITIONS HAMPER MOBILITY
CONSIDERATION FOR DRRO EFFORT DURING TYPHOON.
THICK VEGETATION PROVIDES COVER AND CONCEALMENT.
DIFFICULT FOR MANEUVER OF ARMOR ASSETS AND CAS OPS.
PROVIDES COVER AND CONCEALMENT.
DIFFICULT FOR MANEUVER OF ARMOR ASSETS AND CAS OPS.
EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:
SITUATION EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS EFFECT ON FF COAS
SOUTH BASIN SHELTERING AREA FOR SEA VESSELS
SHELTERING AREA FOR SEA VESSELS
TAKLUBU REEF HAZARDOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS
HAZARDOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDING
EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:
PMESII NODE-LINKNETWORK ANALYSIS
(Adversary)
62 3
NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA
LEGEND:1 – PRESIDENT 5 - PURSUING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS 2 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY IN INTERNATIONAL FORA 3 - EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS 6 - SRN EMBASSY TO ASEAN 4 - ULTIMATE DIPLOMATIC 7 - SRN EMBASSY TO UN PROTEST (MAR 2012) 8 - WITHRAWAL OF SRN AMB TO PH
POLITICAL
1
4
5
8
7
4 9
8
7
53
10
1
NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA
MILITARY LEGEND:1 – MINISTRY OF DEFENSE2 - NUVARIA CHIEF OF STAFF/
GHQ3 - NUVARIAN NAVY4 - NUVARIAN AIR FORCE5 - NUVARIAN ARMY6 - WEST NUVARIAN FLEET7 - 2ND NAVAL INF BDE, NAF8 - 7TH AIR FORCE GROUP, NAF9 - NUVARIAN SPF 10 - NUVARIAN JTF11 - CYBER WARFARE SYSTEM
CAPABILITY12 - MILITARY EXERCISE
FURIOUS OWL IN DEVORA13 – ISR ACTIVITIES IN WESTERN
LUZON AND NE LUZON
2
6
11
12
11
13
1
NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA
ECONOMIC
LEGEND:1 – ECONOMIC & TRADE
MINISTRY 2 - STRINGENT CUSTOMS
INSPECTIONS3 - OIL AND NATURAL GAS
EXPLORATION PLANS 4 - INDUSTRIAL SECTOR5 - AGRICULTURAL SECTOR6 - FREEZE IN HIRING OF
FILIPINO LABORERS7 - FISHING IN TAKLUBU REEF
AND LACUHA AREA
3
76
2
4 5
1
NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA
SOCIAL
LEGEND:1 – CITIZENS OF NUVARIA 2 - STRONG SENSE NATIONALISM 3 - ISLAMIC RELIGION 2
3
2
NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA
INFORMATIONAL
LEGEND:1 – MINISTRY OF INFORMATION2 - STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA3 - STRATEGIC
COMMUNICATIONS4 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS
COMPANIES AND FACILITIES
41
3
2
NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA
INFRASTRUCTURE
LEGEND:1 – POWER GENERATION &
DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES2 - SPODS3 - APODS4 - ROADNETS
1
43
4 9
8
7
53
10
1
2
6
11
12
1
3
76
2
4 5
62
31
4
5
8
7
1
2
3
13
11
2
1
4
3
2
4
1
3
SYSTEM NODES (SUB-SYSTEMS)
POLITICAL
PRESIDENT PURSUING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY IN INTERNATIONAL FORA EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS SRN EMBASSY TO ASEAN ULTIMATE DIPLOMATIC SRN EMBASSY TO UN PROTEST (MAR 2012) WITHRAWAL OF SRN AMB TO PH
MILITARY
MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, NUVARIA CHIEF OF STAFF/ GHQ, NUVARIAN NAVY NUVARIAN AIR FORCE, NUVARIAN ARMY, WEST NUVARIAN FLEET 2ND NAVAL INF BDE, NAF; 7TH AIR FORCE GROUP, NAF; NUVARIAN SPF NUVARIAN JTF, CYBER WARFARE SYSTEM CAPABILITY, MILITARY EXERCISE FURIOUS OWL IN DEVORA, ISR ACTIVITIES IN WESTERN LUZON AND NE LUZON
ECONOMIC
ECONOMIC & TRADE MINISTRY , STRINGENT CUSTOMS INSPECTIONS, OIL AND NATURAL GAS EXPLORATION PLANS, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, FREEZE IN HIRING OF FILIPINO LABORERS, FISHING IN TAKLUBU REEF AND LACUHA AREA
QUICK LOOK TABLE RECAPITULATION
SYSTEM NODES (SUB-SYSTEMS)
SOCIALCITIZENS OF NUVARIA , STRONG SENSE NATIONALISM , ISLAMIC RELIGION
INFRASTRUCTUREPOWER GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES, SPODS, APODS,
ROADNETS
INFORMATIONMINISTRY OF INFORMATION, STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA, STRATEGIC
COMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES AND FACILITIES
QUICK LOOK TABLE RECAPITULATION
EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY• THE THREAT (COMPOSITION,
DISPOSITION, TACTICS, TRAINING, LOGISTICS, OP EFFECTIVENESS, INTEL, COMMUNICATIONS, SUPPORT)
• THREAT LEADERSHIP & GOALS
• PREFERRED TACTICS & OPTIONS
• THREAT DOCTRINE & MODELS (GRAPHICS)
• ASSESSED HIGH VALUE TARGETS (HVT) & HIGH PAYOFF TARGETS (HPT)
• OVERALL THREAT CAPABILITIES
COMPOSITION
MOD
General Staff
ChiefArmedForces
XXXX XX
XXXXXXXXX
Fleet AirForces Army
ORGANIZATION OF NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES
XXX
Fleet
XX
Surface Forces
XX
NavalInfantry
X
Support Flotilla
X X X
1 2
X X
Frigate Flotilla
X
* Key ship types in the Nuvarian flotillas are the Polnocny-class landing ship , Whidbey Island –class LSD, Oliver Perry-class frigate, Kashin-class destroyer, and Durance-class oiler** Key combat systems in the naval infantry brigades are the AMX-10RC tank, M1985 tank, BTR-80 APC, BTR-D APC, BMD-2 APC, 2S1 Howitzer, 2S23 Howitzer, and 122 mm MRL
LSD Flotilla
Destroyer Flotilla 3
X
Polnocny Flotilla
NUVARIAN NAVY
X
II
I
II II III
II II II II I
I
II
SPT
II
BTR-80 BMD-2 AMX-10RC,M1985
2S1, 2S3 122mm
BRDM-2,M1985
AT-5B, AT-13, BMP-2M, BTR-D
2S6
Naval Infantry Brigade Organization
NUVARIAN NAVY
XXX
AirForces
X
Transport Wing
X
Ground Attack
X
Fighter Wing
X
Fighter Wing1 53 7
(An-12/C-130)(Su-24MK)(Su-27) (Mirage 2000)
* Each wing is comprised of three aircraft squadrons and a support squadron.** The fighter wings and ground attack wing each have 81 combat aircraft. The transport wing has 45 aircraft.
X
Fighter Wing
(Su-27)
X
Fighter Wing
(Mirage 2000)
X
Ground Attack
(Su-24MK)
642
NUVARIAN AIR FORCE
XXX
Army
1/2
(AMX-10P IFV, Chieftan Tk, 122/155mm How, AT-13 ATGM, W87 AGL)
X
3
X
(W-87 AGL, 84mm Gustaf RR, AT-13 ATGM, 100mm ATG, BRDM-2, Stinger SAM)
5/6
X
(BMD-2 IFV,BTR-D APC, 84mm Gustaf RR, AT-5B ATGM, SA-18 SAM)
4
X
(W-87 AGL, 84mm Gustaf RR, AT-13 ATGM, 100mm ATG, BRDM-2, Stinger SAM)
7
X
(RPG-7, SA-18 SAM)
SPF
NUVARIAN ARMY
ChiefArmedForces
XXX
XX
XX
MaritimeComponent
JTF
II
SOFComponent
X
AirComponent
Joint Task Force
XX
MaritimeComponent
XX
Strike Group
X
1
- 4 x LSD landing ships- 4 x Polnocny landing ships- 1 x Oliver Perry Frigate- 1 x Kashin Destroyer- 1 x Durance Oiler
- 3 x naval infantry battalions- 2 x airborne infantry battalions- 1 x light tank battalion- 1 x armored cavalry company- 1 x MRL battalion- 1 x air defense battalion- Combat support/service support
Maritime Component
X
I
II I
II II II I
I
II
SPT
II
II
BTR-80
II
AMX-10RC
122mm
BRDM-2,M1985
* Organic artillery and antitank battalions will not deploy, airborne battalions will deploy without BMD-1 vehicles, and tank battalion will deploy without M1985 tanks due to lift constraints. Brigade augmented with one naval infantry battalion and one airborne infantry battalion (Army)
2
ARTILLERY and ANTI-TANK
X
AirComponent
II
Ground Attack
II
31
27 x Su-24 (FENCER) ground attack aircraft
27 x Su-27 (FLANKER) fighter aircraft
II
Fighter Transport11 21
15 x An-12 (CUB) transport aircraft
* The FENCER and FLANKER squadrons are divided into three flights of 9 aircraft each. The CUB squadron is divided into three flights of 5 aircraft each.
AIR COMPONENT
* Each Special Purpose Forces (SPF) company can field up to 10 SPF teams. All teams are airborne capable.** Key weapons systems are the SA-18 SAM, RPG-7V ATGL, and AK-47 rifle.
II
SPF
I
SPF
I
SPF C
I
SPF
BA
SPECIAL PURPOSE FORCES
Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker
Sukhoi Su-24 FencerMirage 2000
ORDER OF BATTLE
NUVARIAN AIR FORCE
Kashin Class Destroyer
Oliver Hazard Perry Class FrigatePolnocny Class Medium Landing Ship
ORDER OF BATTLE
NUVARIAN NAVY
AMX 10
BMD 2 Infantry Fighting VehicleBTR D Armored Personnel Carrier (APC)
ORDER OF BATTLE
NUVARIAN ARMY
122mm D 30 Towed Howitzer
SA-18 (Igla) Man-Portable Surface- to-Air Missile (SAM)
84mm Carl Gustav Recoilless Rifle
ORDER OF BATTLE
NUVARIAN ARMY
DISPOSITION OF NUVARIAN FORCE
MARINES
AIRFORCE
NAVY
ENEMY HQS
ARMY
BRIGADES
BOMBER
FIGHTER
NAVAL SHIPS
Sabana Seca Naval Base
Camp Santiago Marine Base
Ramey Air Base
Buchanan Air Station
Fort Allen
Ministry of Defense (MOD) located in San Juan
Sabana Seca Naval Base
Camp Santiago Marine BaseFort
Allen
NUVARIA
Naval infantry HQ and Brigades
Fleet HQ and all naval ship units
Chief of Armed Forces and General Staff
AIR FORCE & ARMY
Air Forces HQ & the 5th & 6th Bomber Wings
Ramey Air Base
Buchanan Air Station
Fort Allen
NUVARIA
Army HQ and all Army Brigades
1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th
Fighter Wing
• PREPONDERANCE OF NUVARIAN FORCES IS THE NUVARIAN FLEET (NAVAL SHIPS AND NAVAL INFANTRY) CORRESPONDS TO THE MARITIME NATURE
OF NUVARIA
• NUVARIAN DOCTRINE: EXECUTION OF OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS AT
NIGHT TO MAXIMIZE COVER, STEALTH, AND THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE
DOCTRINES and TTPs
• LARGE-SCALE JOINT EXERCISE FOCUSED ON NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS
• “RAGING BULL”-(2011)-NE OF PHIL SEA INVOLVING FLEET, NAVAL INFANTRY BRIGADE, AIR WING, AND ARMY AIRBORNE BRIGADE
• AUGUST 2012: EXERCISE FOCUSED ON CAPABILITIES FOR NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND HELIBORNE OPS
• 21 JUNE 2014: “FURIOUS OWL” CONDUCTED NEAR THE BORDER OF NPS, 100 MI NORTH OF LACUHA
TRAINING
• IMPROVED JOINT CAPABILITIES OF THE NAF
INTEROPERABILITY OF NAVAL SHIP UNITS AND NAVAL INFANTRY IS VERY GOOD; BOTH FALL UNDER THE SAME FLEET COMMAND
INTEGRATION OF THE AIR FORCES AND ARMY INTO JOINT OPERATIONS NOT AS WELL DEVELOPED, BUT IS IMPROVING
NAF INCORPORATED U.S. DOCTRINE FOR JOINT EXPEDITIONARY WARFARE; FORCES ARE ALIGNED UNDER A JOINT TASK FORCE (JTF) THAT IS CREATED FOR A SPECIFIC MISSION OR CAMPAIGN
EFFECTIVENESS
• NAF HAS DEVELOPED A LIMITED POWER PROJECTION CAPABILITY, WITH A STRATEGIC REACH OF ROUGHLY 500 MILES (804 KM) NUVARIAN FLEET HAS ACHIEVED A “BLUE
WATER” CAPABILITY, BY ADDING OILERS TO THE FLEET
NUVARIAN AIR FORCE DOES NOT HAVE AN AIR-TO-AIR REFUELING CAPABILITY
EFFECTIVENESS
HIGH PROBABILITY OF NAF THREATENING PH INTEREST (DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY)
NAF WILL LAUNCH SERIES OF ATTACKS IN MAINLAND PHILIPPINES SHOULD THE PH GOVERNMENT DISAGREE TO CEDE LACUHA IS
POSSIBLE INVASION OF LACUHA ISLAND STRIKE VITAL INSTALLATIONS
INTEL REPORTS
NAF INCREASED THEIR LEVEL OF AIR AND MARITIME PATROL ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTH BASIN
MARCH 2014: UAVS WERE SPOTTED IN WESTERN AND NORTHEAST LUZON
2 LARGE FISHING VESSELS, BELIEVED TO BE SPY SHIPS, SPOTTED AROUND LACUHA IN THE PAST 2 MONTHS; THESE ARE NOW ANCHORED IN TAKLUBU REEF
INTEL REPORTS
• IN THE LAST SIX YEARS, DEFENSE BUDGET HAS CONTINUOUSLY INCREASED FROM 1.1% TO 6.5% TO SUSTAIN MODERNIZATION OF ITS MILITARY
SUPPORT
B. Threat Leadership & Goals
• DE LOPEZ’S ADMINISTRATION OPENLY DECLARED ITS RESOLUTE INTENTION TO ANNEX LACUHA ISLAND
• NEGOTIATE THE TURN-OVER OF LACUHA ISLAND TO NUVARIA, OTHERWISE “ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE” FOR SRN
STRATEGIC
• NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS
• JOINT OPERATIONS INVOLVING NUVARIAN FLEET, NAVAL INFANTRY BDE, AIR WING, AND ARMY AIRBORNE BDE
• HELIBORNE OPERATIONS
C. Preferred Tactics & Options
D. Threat Doctrine and Models
DOCTRINAL TEMPLATE
AIR FORCE
RAIDERS FLEET GROUND
FORCES
E. Assessed High Value Targets and High Payoff Targets
F. Overall Threat Capabilities
IDENTIFICATION OF ADVERSARY’S COG
COG ANALYSIS (ENEMY)
CENTER OF GRAVITY (STRATEGIC) CRITICAL CAPABILITIES
CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES
PRESIDENT DE LOPEZ, SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF NUVARIA
• CONDUCT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS• CONDUCT AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS• NIGHT FIGHTING
• NAVAL TRANSPORT SHIPS• AIR TRANSPORT FOR AIRBORNE
TROOPS • AIR COVER• INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISANCE (ISR)
• LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR INVASION FORCE
• SLOCS
ENDSTATE: OCCUPATION OF LACUHA ISLAND
COG ANALYSIS (ENEMY)
CENTER OF GRAVITY (OPN’L) CRITICAL CAPABILITIES
CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES
JOINT TASK FORCE, NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES
• CONDUCT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS• CONDUCT AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS• NIGHT FIGHTING
• NAVAL TRANSPORT SHIPS• AIR TRANSPORT FOR AIRBORNE
TROOPS • AIR COVER• INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISANCE (ISR)
• LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR INVASION FORCE
• SLOCS
ENDSTATE: OCCUPATION OF LACUHA ISLAND
DETERMINE ADVERSARY COURSES OF ACTION
SITUATION
• IN 1993, NUVARIA (NUV) HAD OPENLY EXPRESSED OPPOSITION TO THE PH’S ADMINISTRATION OF LACUHA ISLAND.
• PH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES (PHIL COAST GUARD, PNP AND BFAR) HAVE REGULATED THE FISHING ACTIVITIES AND INSTITUTED STRICT CAMPAIGN AGAINST ILLEGAL FISHING AND POACHING IN THE AREA.
SITUATION• DIPLOMATIC AND TRADING RELATIONS BETWEEN THE
TWO NATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CORDIAL - NUVARIAN TERRITORIAL CLAIM OVER LACUHA ISLAND.
• NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF) MAY THREATEN PH INTERESTS EITHER DIRECTLY (BY THE THREAT OF INCURSIONS TO SOVEREIGNTY) OR INDIRECTLY (BY INTERFERING WITH PH TRADE ROUTES)
• SRN IMPLIED AN INTENT THAT SHOULD THE PH GOVERNMENT BE DEFIANT TO ITS REQUEST TO CEDE LACUHA ISLAND, NAF WILL LAUNCH SERIES OF ATTACKS IN MAINLAND PHILIPPINES.
Events
• In 2011, a large scale joint exercise is being conducted at the Devora Island, focusing on night amphibious and airmobile operations
• In August 2012, another exercise was conducted simulating the seizure of an island focusing on precision and enhancement of capabilities for night amphibious and heliborne operations
Events
• NAF mobilized 2 naval infantry brigades and Army airborne battalions to Devora Island in preparation for another joint exercise
• In August 2013, UAVs were spotted in two different areas, one in western Luzon and the other in Northeast Luzon
Events
• 2 large fishing vessels, believed to be a spy ship were spotted in various locations around Lacuha Island in the past 2 months
• On 21 September 2013, SRN announces a major military exercise codenamed “Furious Owl” near the border in the Northern Philippine Sea
Decision Support• DP: NAF conducts
major military exercise codenamed “Furious Owl” near the border in the Northern Philippine Sea
NAI: Taklubu reef
TAKLUBU REEF
ADVERSARY’S LIKELY OBJECTIVES AND ENDSTATE
• Socialist Republic of Nuvaria (SRN) through its NAF will invade Lacuha Island by force in case the GPH will not cede the island to them by diplomatic means
• To establish SRN political government and declare Lacuha Island as one of the provinces of SRN as NAF will force LGEs to pledge allegiance to SRN or through a temporary military junta
• Invasion of Lacuha Island without resistance will make a political statement that SRN is the rightful claimant nation of said territory
• COA 1 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island by surprise utilizing massive amphibious forces seizing vital installations and key terrains of the island and pushing inward aided by air and naval fires
• COA 2 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island utilizing airborne attack by Special Purpose Forces (SPF) targeting the swift grab of power over local governance and establish an active defense within the seats of government
• COA 3 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island and a portion of Northern Luzon without resistance from the AFP through rapid deployment of maritime invasion forces
FULL SET OF ADVERSARY COURSES OF ACTION
EVALUATE & PRIORITISE EACH COURSE OF ACTION
FACTORS COA 1 COA 2 COA 3
FEASABILITY 2 1 3
ACCEPTABILITY 2 1 3
SUSTAINABILITY 2 1 3
UNIQUENESS 2 1 3
CONSISTENCY 2 1 3
TOTAL 10 (2) 5 (1) 15 (3)
1 – MOST PRIORITY4 – LEAST PRIORITY
LACUHA ISLAND
NAF
SPFMOST LIKELY
COA 2NAF to invade Lacuha Island utilizing airborne attack by Special Purpose Forces (SPF) targeting the swift grab of power over local governance and establish an active defense within the seats of government
LACUHA ISLAND
NAF
SPFMOST LIKELY
COA 2Endstate – Swift overthrow of GPH Governance in Lacuha Island through the establishment of a “puppet/hostage government” or a temporary NAF military junta. Communication of Lacuha Province to mainland Philippines/ national government totally cut-off thereby gaining the initiative
that will allow the deployment of its follow-on amphibious forces supported by air and naval assets.
LACUHA ISLAND
NAF
SPFMOST LIKELY
I&W – Identify LGEs and other important personalities vulnerabilities for further exploitation, vital installations for sabotage operations, avenues/routes for land forces and key terrains.
COA 2
MOST DANGEROUS
LACUHA ISLAND
NAF JTF-LI
NAF
JTF-
NLPH
COA 3NAF will invade both Lacuha Island and a portion of Northern Luzon which will render the AFP divided into two (2) theatre of war.
MOST DANGEROUS
LACUHA ISLAND
NAF JTF-LI
NAF
JTF-
NLPH
Endstate – Invaded Lacuha Island without resistance from AFP and established an active defense in two fronts and ensure normalcy in the area through influencing the LGE/GAs/NGOs/POs to co-opt with SRN by means of a combined diplomatic pressures & terroristic actions.
COA 3
MOST DANGEROUS
LACUHA ISLAND
NAF JTF-LI
NAF
JTF-
NLPH
COA 3
I&W – Intensify measures to identify and neutralize resistance movements, ensure the sustained flow of logistical requirements of NAF, facilitate SRN political governance of the occupied island, prevent UN sanctions by political means/bargaining
CCIRs
Priority intelligence requirements (PIR)Adversary:• What is the current NAF composition and disposition?• What are the nearest available NAF units that can reinforce the
enemy in the AO?• Who are the Nuvarian nationals in Lacuha Island and their
activities?• Who are the NAF commanders/sympathizers that are
vulnerable to friendly force recruitment? • What is the current composition and disposition of
sympathizers of the SRN?• Who are among the political leaders in the area that are
supportive of the SRN? Why are they supportive of the SRN?
PIR Adversary (Continued):
• What is the likely start date of the proposed NAF EX?• What specific Vital Installations (VI) are the Nuvarians likely
to target?• When will the Nuvarians target these assets?• Will the Nuvarians target VI on the mainland?• What is the current NTM of the Nuvarian Naval Infantry
Units?• What NAF assets have been stockpiled at Fleet base Kailua
Kona?
CCIRs
Operational Environment:
• What are the expected weather conditions during the next month?
• What is the likely reaction of Lacuhan locals to any AFP element arriving in Lacuha?
• What size military force can Lacuha accommodate?
• Who are the key PNP and PPSC points of contact in Lacuha?
• What are the exact locations of the coral reefs in vicinity of Lacuha?
CCIRs
Friendly force information requirements (FFIR)
• What is the status/location of all intelligence capabilities in the AO?
• How will the weather impact ISR capabilities?
• What is the status of the HUMINT source network?
• Where are the current location and frequented places of LGEs?
• Who are the personnel susceptible to exploitation by NAF covert forces?
• What’s the most vulnerable police stations/detachments in the AO.
CCIRs