40
Job Market Packet 2017-2018
Job Market Packet
2017-2018
Department of Economics
Phone: (314) 935-5646; Fax: (314) 935-4156 October 2017 Dear Colleague: Please find enclosed a packet containing information about our students on the job market. It contains two summary sheets: the first identifies the research and teaching interests of our students on the market this year, and the second indicates their respective advisors. A curriculum vitae and dissertation abstracts for each student are also enclosed. All of these students plan to defend their dissertations by next summer. Reference letters can be obtained through our graduate administrator, Carissa Re, by email: [email protected]. We would appreciate hearing from you about your personnel requirements. In addition, please feel free to contact me if you need detailed or specific information. All of the candidates will attend the Allied Social Science Association meetings in Philadelphia. We would be pleased to cooperate in making arrangements for you to meet with them. Sincerely,
Yongseok Shin Professor of Economics Placement Officer and Associate Department Chair (314) 935-7138, [email protected]
Interests
Juan Aquino C
havezSangm
in AumTerry
Cheung
Minhyeon Jeon g
Sie Won
Kim
Rodolfo
Oviedo
Faisal Sohail
Xi W
an gYinghong
Zhan gLijun Zhu
Applied Microeconom
icsP
PC
hinese Economy
SS
Econometrics
SS
Economic G
rowth &
Developm
entP
PP
PP
Economics of the Fam
ilyS
Economics of Education
PEm
pirical Macroeconom
icsS
SS
SS
Entrepreneurship P
SFinancial Econom
icsP
International FinanceP
Labor Economics
SP
PM
acroeconomics
PP
PP
PP
Monetary Econom
icsP
SP
Political Economy
SPublic Econom
icsS
P: indicates primary field
S: indicates secondary field
Page 1
JuanSangm
inTerry
Minhyeon
Sie Won
Aquino Chavez
AumC
heungJeong
Kim
Gaetano A
ntinolfi*Y
ongseok Shin*
Ping W
ang*C
ostas Azariadis*
Juan Pantano*
Costas A
zariadisR
odolfo Manuelli
Yongseok S
hinR
odolfo Manuelli
George-Levi G
ayleR
obert Parks
Michele B
oldrinC
ostas Azariadis
Yongseok S
hinC
arl Sanders
David W
iczerC
hong K. Y
ip
Rodolfo
FaisalXi
YinghongLijun
Oviedo
SohailW
angZhang
ZhuM
ichele Boldrin*
Yongseok S
hin*C
ostas Azariadis*
Barton H
amilton*
Michele B
oldrin*G
aetano Antinolfi
Alexander M
onge-Naranjo
Michele B
oldrinR
obert Pollak
Rodolfo M
anuelliD
avid Wiczer
Ping W
angG
aetano Antinolfi
Carl S
andersY
ongseok Shin
Ping W
ang
Washington U
niversityD
epartment of Econom
icsS
t. Louis, Missouri 63130-4899
Sum
mary S
heet of Students &
Their Respective A
dvisors
*indicates the P
rimary A
dvisor for student.
Juan Carlos Aquino Chavez
Department of Economics E-mail: [email protected] Box 1208 URL:Washington University in St. Louis juancarlosaquinochavez.comOne Brookings Drive RePEc profile:St. Louis, MO 63130-4899, USA ideas.repec.org/e/paq1.html
ContactInformation
Peruvian (F-1 visa)Citizenship
Banking, Monetary Economics, International Finance.Primary Fields
Empirical Macroeconomics, Quantitative Economics.Secondary Fields
Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, USA.EducationPh.D. in Economics, August 2012 - May 2018 (expected).Dissertation: Essays on Liquidity Regulation and Macroeconomics.Dissertation Committee: Gaetano Antinolfi (chair), Costas Azariadis and Robert Parks.
Universidad de San Andres, Buenos Aires, Argentina.Postgraduate program in Economics, 2009.
Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Lima, Peru.Master in Applied Mathematics, 2011.Bachelor of Social Science, 2005.
Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, USA.Appointments Teaching Assistant to Robert Parks (August 2013 - May 2017). Research Assistant to Juan Pantano (August - December 2013).
Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C., USA. Research Fellow, Caribbean Country Department (October 2011 - July 2012).
Banco Central de Reserva del Peru, Lima, Peru. Specialist in Economic Research (May - August 2014), Macroeconomic Models (June 2010 to September
2011), Financial Programming (May 2007 - March 2009 and December 2009 - May 2010) and EconomicActivity (May 2006 - April 2007).
Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Lima, Peru. Lecturer (August 2007 - August 2011), Teaching Assistant (August 2003 - July 2011), Research Assistant
(March - November 2004).Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru. Lecturer (March - December 2008).
Centre de Reserca en Economia InternacionalOther Studies Solution and Estimation of DSGE Models.
Barcelona Macroeconomics Summer School. Barcelona, Spain. July 2011.International Monetary Fund Financial Programming and Policies under Inflation Targeting.
IMF Institute. Washington, D.C., USA. October - November 2008.Banco Central de Reserva del Peru LIII Summer School (passed with distinction).
Lima, Peru. January - March 2006.
Washington University in St. Louis.Awards, Honorsand Distinctions University Fellowship, 2017-2018.
Graduate Scholarship, 2012-2017. John Stuart Mill Fellowship, 2012-2016. Summer Fellowship, 2014-2016.
Banco de Guatemala. Honorable Mention, Permanent Research Contest Dr. Manuel Noriega Morales 2003-2004 (joint with
Nelson R. Ramrez-Rondan).
Working papersResearch Aquino Chavez, Juan C. (2017), Liquidity Regulation in a Monetary Economy (Job Market Paper). Aquino-Chavez, Juan and N.R. Ramrez-Rondan (2017), Estimating Factor Shares from Nonstationary
Panel Data (Revise & Resubmit, Empirical Economics).
1 of 2
https://economics.wustl.edu/mailto:[email protected]://www.wustl.edu/http:juancarlosaquinochavez.com/http://ideas.repec.org/e/paq1.htmlhttp://www.wustl.edu/http://economics.wustl.edu/graduatehttp://www.udesa.edu.ar/http://www.udesa.edu.ar/Posgrados/Programas-de-Posgrado/Maestria-en-Economiahttp://www.pucp.edu.pe/http://posgrado.pucp.edu.pe/maestria/matematicas-aplicadas/http://www.wustl.edu/https://economics.wustl.edu/people/parkshttps://heckman.uchicago.edu/directory/juan-pantanohttp://www.iadb.org/http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/http://www.pucp.edu.pe/http://www.unmsm.edu.pe/http://www.crei.cathttp://www.imf.orghttp://www.bcrp.gob.pe/http://www.wustl.edu/http://www.banguat.gob.gt/https://ideas.repec.org/e/pra155.htmlhttp://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WP-89.pdfhttp://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WP-89.pdf
Work in progress The Portfolio Composition Effect in Small Open Economies. The Role of Housing on Wealth Inequality in the United States: 1980-2012 (with Rodolfo Oviedo Moguel).
Articles (pre-doctoral) Aquino, Juan C. and Marco Vega (2014), Que es la Nueva Economa Monetarista?, Moneda 160: 31-33. Aquino, Juan C. and Gabriel Rodrguez (2013), Understanding the Functional Central Limit Theorems
with Some Applications to Unit Root Testing with Structural Change, Economa 36 (71): 107-149. Ramrez-Rondan, Nelson R. and Juan C. Aquino (2006), Crisis Inflacionaria y Productividad Total de
Factores en Latinoamerica, Estudios Economicos 13. Aquino, Juan C. and Nelson R. Ramrez-Rondan (2004), Inflacion y Fuentes de Crecimiento Economico
en Latinoamerica, Banca Central 47: 47-68. Aquino, Juan C. (2003), Sobre Dinamica del Tipo del Cambio y la Complecion al Modelo de Dornbusch,
Econodemica 2 (1): 3-36.Working papers (pre-doctoral) Aquino, Juan C. and Freddy Espino (2013), Terms of Trade and Current Account Fluctuations: a Vector
Autoregression Approach, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru, Working Paper No. 2013-07. Ramrez-Rondan, Nelson and Juan C. Aquino (2004), High Inflation, Volatility and Total Factor Produc-
tivity, Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, No. 297.
As expositorConferences Econometric Society. European Winter Meeting, Barcelona, 2017. Latin American Meeting, Santiago
de Chile, 2004. Peruvian Economic Association, Annual Congress. Lima, 2014. Banco Central de Reserva del Peru. Meeting of Economists, Lima, 2005 and 2010.
Washington University in St. Louis August 2013 - May 2017Teaching Teaching Assistant: Introduction to Econometrics (Fall 2013 - Spring 2017).
Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru August 2003 - August 2011 Lecturer: Applied Macroeconometrics using EViews (March - October 2008, September - October 2010
and July - August 2011), MATLAB for Economists (March - August 2008, June 2010 and April - May2011), Topics in Mathematical and Computational Economics (2007-II).
Teaching Assistant: Game Theory (2011-I), Topics in Mathematical and Computational Economics (2006-II), Mathematics for Economists (2004-II, 2005-I), Mathematics for Economists 1 (2007-II), Economics(2004-I), General Economics (2003-II).
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos March - December 2008 Lecturer: Econometrics I (2008-II), Macroeconometrics (2008-I).
Banco Central de Reserva del Peru August 2008 - August 2011 Lecturer: Mathematics (Winter School, 2008, 2010 and 2011).
Academic typesetting: Scientific WorkPlace, LATEX, Beamer.Computer SkillsEconometric software: EViews, Stata.Programming languages: VBA, HTML, MATLAB, Fortran.
Spanish: native. English: fluent. French: basic.Languages
Referee for Monetaria (1) and Revista Estudios Economicos (1).Peer ReviewWork
Prof. Gaetano Antinolfi (chair) Prof. Costas AzariadisDepartment of Economics Department of EconomicsWashington University in St. Louis Washington University in St. LouisCampus Box 1208 Campus Box 1208St. Louis, MO 63130 St. Louis, MO 63130(314) 935-7335 (314) [email protected] [email protected]
Prof. Robert ParksDepartment of EconomicsWashington University in St. LouisCampus Box 1208St. Louis, MO 63130(314) [email protected]
AcademicReferences
2 of 2
https://ideas.repec.org/e/pve50.htmlhttp://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Moneda/moneda-160/moneda-160-07.pdfhttps://ideas.repec.org/f/pro411.htmlhttp://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/6379/6433http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/13/Estudios-Economicos-13-3.pdfhttp://www.banguat.gob.gt/publica/banca/047200402/003.pdfhttps://drive.google.com/open?id=0B25RYau-hDJgN3RGM0FVTTFQSE0https://ideas.repec.org/e/pes94.htmlhttp://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-08-2013.pdfhttp://repec.org/esLATM04/up.27170.1082085786.pdfhttp://www.wustl.edu/http://www.pucp.edu.pe/http://www.unmsm.edu.pe/http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/http://www.cemla.org/monetary.htmlhttp://www.bcrp.gob.pe/publicaciones/revista-estudios-economicos.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
Essays on Liquidity Regulation and Macroeconomics
Juan Aquino ChavezPh.D. Dissertation in Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
Liquidity Regulation in a Monetary Economy (Job Market Paper)
Although it is commonly argued that the prevention of bank runs is the main reason to regulate banksasset portfolios, we show that a market failure that justifies such regulation lies on the incompletenessof financial markets when there is risk about the aggregate distribution of transaction types. Wedevelop a framework in which outside (fiat, government-provided) and inside (plastic, bank-created)money co-exist as means of payment under either complete or incomplete financial markets foraggregate risk. The welfare analysis is reduced to comparing only two parameters: the currency-to-liability ratio which is set by the government and the fraction of banks depositors engaged incash-only transactions (inside money cannot be accepted). In equilibrium, when < fiat currencyis relatively scarcer in the inter-bank market and then government bonds (which are transformed intoliquid liabilities by banks) are less valuable than cash. This forces banks to offer higher consumptionwith plastic money to induce self-selection among depositors. Welfare is lower under incompletemarkets: depositors exert a higher labor effort (precautionary motive) to accumulate more assetsas perfect risk-sharing is unattainable (unlike the case of complete markets). Also, a higher cashrequirement on banks is equivalent to an implicit increase in the policy parameter that makesbonds scarcer and more valuable in the inter-bank market. Therefore, a liquidity requirement isnot welfare-improving because it reduces the likelihood of bank runs but because it increases theinter-bank market price of bonds which in turn improves risk-sharing. Finally, when the governmentsets = the welfare measures under complete and incomplete markets coincide as the Friedmanrule holds.
Estimating Factor Shares from Nonstationary Panel Data
The measurement of the sources of economic growth is essential for understanding the long-termperspective of any economy. From an empirical viewpoint, the results from any growth-accountingexercise depend both on the functional form that summarizes the technology set and the factor sharevalues. We estimate the physical capitals share in output implied by a Cobb-Douglas productionfunction. Instead of growth rates, we analyze time series in levels to preserve the long-run infor-mation contained in the data. We also make use of the cross-section dimension (between countries)to overcome the low availability of long time series. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares(FMOLS) and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) estimators are used in a panel cointegration frame-work for 109 countries over the 1951-2014 period. For several measures of labor input, our physicalcapitals share estimates range between 0.46 and 0.56 for the set of 109 countries. Our estimates ofthe physical capitals share in output vary significantly across regions. The results are also robustagainst the alternative of local misspecification as we allow for a constant-elasticity-of-substitution(CES) technology.
1
Sangmin Aum1 Brookings Dr, St. Louis, MO63130, USA
+1-314-825-0332
[email protected] / https://sites.wustl.edu/saum
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Economics, Washington University in St. Louis (Expected) Aug 2013 to May 2018
B.A., Economics, Yonsei University Mar 2000 to Aug 2004
B.A., Applied Statistics, Yonsei University Mar 2000 to Aug 2004
WORKING PAPERS1. The Rise of Software and Skill Demand Reversal (job market paper)
2. Computerizing Industries and Routinizing Jobs: Explaining Trends in Aggregate Produc-
tivity (with Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin),
to be presented at the Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference on Public Policy, Nov 2017
3. Two Funding Sources and Exchange Rate Policy
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS1. Waxing Jobs and Waning Industries (with Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin)
2. Growth Facts with the Intellectual Property Products Capital (with Dongya Koh and Ral
Santaeullia-llopis)
3. Modern Finance and a Non-monotonic Growth
PUBLICATION1. Industrial and Occupational Employment Changes during the Great Recession (with Sang
Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin), FRB St.Louis Review, 2017
PUBLICATIONS (IN KOREAN)1. The Role of Money and Banking in Monetary Policy (in Korean) (with Hyun-Euy Kim),
Economic Analysis, vol 17(1):45-102, 2011
2. The Money Demand Stability in Korea (in Korean) (with Kijung Park), Ewha Journal of
Social Science, vol 20:133-168, 2008
3. Uncovered Interest Rates Parity: Duration, Expectation, and Nonlinearity (in Korean),
Bank of Korea Monthly Bulletin, 2013-1.
mailto:[email protected]://sites.wustl.edu/saum
WORK
Fall 2015 to Spring 2017 Research Assistant for Prof. Yongseok Shin
Jan 2006 to Dec 2012 Junior Economist, Bank of Korea (central bank)
TEACHING
WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST. LOUIS
Teaching assistant, Macroeconomics (PhD Core) Fall 2014 & Spring 2015
YONSEI UNIVERSITY
Teaching assistant, Labor Economics (graduate) Fall 2005
Teaching assistant, Microeconomics (undergraduate) Spring 2005
Teaching assistant, Principles of Economics (undergraduate) Fall 2005
AWARDS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
University Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis (2013, 2017)
Doctoral Study Abroad Fellowship, Bank of Korea (2012)
Prime Ministers Award for Contribution to G20 Seoul Summit (2011)
Governors Award for Academic Paper Competition, Bank of Korea (2007, 2011)
PRESENTATIONS
CONFERENCE & WORKSHOP
Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting (scheduled), University of Pittsburgh Nov. 2017
Economics Graduate Students Conference (scheduled), Oct. 2017
Washington University in St. Louis
Workshop on Innovation and Inequality (scheduled), Oct. 2017
Washington University in St. Louis
Dissertation Interns Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Aug. 2017
Society for Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting (poster session), Jul. 2017
University of Edinburgh
SEMINAR
Stony Brook University (scheduled) Dec. 2017
LANGUAGE
Korean (native), English (fluent)
REFERENCESYongseok Shin (Chair)
Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
1 Brookings Drive
St. Louis, MO 63130, USA
Email: [email protected]
Rodolfo ManuelliDepartment of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
1 Brookings Drive
St. Louis, MO 63130, USA
Email: [email protected]
Michele BoldrinDepartment of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
1 Brookings Drive
St. Louis, MO 63130, USA
Email: [email protected]
David WiczerEconomics Department
Stony Brook University
Social & Behavioral Sciences Building
Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
Email: [email protected]
Last updated: October 2017
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
Essays on MacroeconomicsSangmin Aum
Washington University in St. Louis
The rise of software and skill demand reversal
The pattern of job polarization shows that the increase in high-skill occupations slowed with
the greater increase in low-skill occupations since the late 1990s. We document that this change
has been accompanied by the rising innovations on software and propose a model with sorting
and directed technical change that explains both of these trends. We first provide new empirical
support that high-skill occupations rely more on software while middle-skill occupations rely more
on equipment. Because of the differences in capital use, a faster increase in the productivity
of equipment-producing sector (or decline in the price of equipment) leads to a reduction in the
employment share of middle-skill occupations when occupations are complementary. The reduction
in the middle then decreases demand for equipment, resulting in more software innovation than
equipment innovation. The increase in software innovation, in turn, leads to the reversal in demand
for skill. Quantitative analysis shows that the model explains approximately half of the rise in
software and skill demand reversal observed in the data.
Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs
(with Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin)
Aggregate productivity growth in the U.S. has slowed down since the 2000s. We relate this
to differential productivity growth across multiple jobs (routinization) and industries since the
1980s. In our model, complementarity across jobs and industries in production leads to aggregate
productivity slowdowns, as the relative size of those jobs and industries that experienced high
productivity growth shrinks, reducing their contributions toward aggregate productivity. We find
that this effect was countervailed by extraordinarily high productivity growth in the computer
industry (computerization) during the 1980s and 1990s, of which output became an increasingly
more important input in production across all industries. It was only as the productivity growth in
the computer industry slowed down in the 2000s that the negative effect of differential productivity
growth across jobs became apparent for aggregate productivity. Our quantitative results show that
the decline in the labor share can also be explained by computerization, which substitutes labor
across all industries.
Growth facts with the intellectual property products capital
(with Dongya Koh and Raul Santaeulalia-llopis)
We document a rise of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) capital in OECD countries from
the exploration of the recently updated national accounts. Restricting sample to those with GDP
per capita greater than ten thousand USD, we find (1) the rise of capital to output ratio and (2)
increasing the rate of return on capital, despite (3) constant growth rates on average. Moreover,
both the capital-output ratio and the return on capital are stable without the IPP capital, implying
that the IPP capital is a sole factor generating the decline of labor share in OECD countries. We
quantitatively investigate the implications of IPP capital for income per capita differences across
time and space. We also provide a theory consistent with this new stylized facts.
T. Terry Cheung
Department of EconomicsWashington University in St. Louis1 Brookings DriveSt Louis, MO 63108
Phone: +1 (314) 478-5998Email: [email protected]: http://terrycheung.weebly.com/Updated: October 19, 2017
Education
Ph.D. Economics, Washington University in St. Louis expected May 2018Thesis Title: Essays on Macroeconomic DevelopmentCommittee: Ping Wang (Chair), Costas Azariadis and Yongseok Shin
M.Phil. Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2013B.S.Sc. Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2011International Exchange Student, Sciences Po. Jan.-May 2011
Research Interest
Macroeconomics, Growth and Development, Economic Demography and Economic History.
Research Experience
Research Assistant for Prof. Chong K. Yip, The Chinese University of Hong Kong Aug. 2012-May 2013Summer Intern for Dr. Carol Liao, Hong Kong Monetary Authority May-Aug. 2012Research Assistant for Prof. Y. W. Sung, The Chinese University of Hong Kong Aug. 2011-May 2012Research Assistant for Prof. Pauline Sung, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University May-Jul. 2011
Teaching Experience
Washington University in St. Louis
Economics of Education, TA for Dr. Guillaume Vandenbroucke (No Evaluation) Spring 2017Introduction to Microeconomics, TA for Dr. Sudeshna Bandyopadhyay(Overall Evaluation Section A: 7/7; Section B: 5.71/7) Fall 2014
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Advanced Macroeconomics, TA for Prof. Chong K. Yip Spring 2012 and 2013Intermediate Microeconomics, TA for Prof. Tommy Leung Fall 2012Quantitative Method, TA for Dr. Linda Yung Fall 2011
https://economics.wustl.edu/people/ting-yuen-terry-cheungmailto:[email protected]://terrycheung.weebly.com/
T. Terry Cheung 2
Honor and Award
McDonnell International Scholar Academy Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2013-PresentBest Thesis for Postgraduate, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2013Postgraduate Studentship, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2011-2013Leader of Tomorrow, St. Gallen Symposium 2012Yasumoto International Exchange Scholarship, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2011GOAL Program Scholarship, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2010
Conference and Seminar
2017Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting, Louisiana State, LA.Asian Meeting of Econometric Society, Hong Kong.China meeting of Econometric Society, Wuhan.North American Summer Meeting of Econometric Society, St. Louis, MO.Society of Economics of Household Meeting, San Diego, CA.Singapore Economic Review Conference, Singapore.2016Taipei International Conference on Growth, Trade and Dynamics, Taiwan.2015Mid-Atlantic Region Association for Asian Studies Meeting, Pittsburgh.
Working Paper
1. Schooling, Skill Demand and Differential Fertility in the Process of Structural Transformation(Job Market Paper)
2. The Age of Neoslavery: Barriers to Tractor Adoption in the Postbellum U.S. South
3. The Rise of Shanghai: Civil War, Trade and Business Culture (with T.-C. Chan, I-C. Fan and P. Wang)
4. Dynamic Trade, Endogenous Institutions and the Colonization of Hong Kong: A Staged Develop-ment Framework (with T. Palivos, P. Wang, Y.-C. Wang and C. Yip)
Work in Progress
1. Tractor Adoption and Peculiar Agricultural Fertility
2. Population and Government Organization in Late Imperial China (Tentative Title)(with Y. Bai and C. Yip)
Referee
Journal of Macroeconomics (2), Review of Economics of the Household
T. Terry Cheung 3
Skill and Personal
Computing: STATA, Matlab and LATEXLanguage: Mandarin (Bilingual), Cantonese (Bilingual) and English (Fluent)Hong Kong SAR Citizen (F1 Visa)
Reference
Prof. Ping Wang (Adviser)Department of EconomicsWashington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, MO, 63130, [email protected]
+1 (314) 935-4236
Prof. Costas AzariadisDepartment of EconomicsWashington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, MO, 63130, [email protected]
+1 (314) 935-5639
Prof. Yongseok ShinDepartment of EconomicsWashington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, MO, 63130, [email protected]
+1 (314) 935-7138
Prof. Chong K. YipDepartment of EconomicsThe Chinese University of Hong KongSha Tin, Hong [email protected]
+852 3943-8187
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
Essays on Macroeconomic Development T. Terry Cheung
Summary of Abstract
Schooling, Skill Demand and Differential Fertility in the Process ofStructural Transformation (Job Market Paper)
The aggregate fertility rate and the agricultural employment share in the U.S.both declined from the late nineteenth century to the eve of the baby boom. Idocument two important forces for this observation: (1) the agricultural sectorhad a higher fertility rate, so when the share of the agricultural sector declined,the aggregate fertility rate followed; (2) the education reform increased therelative odds that rural youth received an education and moved to the non-farm sector. I build a two-sector Overlapping Generations Model that featuresendogenous fertility and occupational choice to evaluate the effects of the educa-tion reform, the technological progress and the child-rearing cost. By standarddecomposition exercise, I find that the education reform accounts for one thirdof the decline in fertility rate and the agricultural employment share as well astwo third of the increase in skill intensity between the years 1870 and 1930.
The Age of Neoslavery: Barriers to Tractor Adoption in the Postbel-lum U.S. South
The rate of tractor adoption was lower while the agricultural employment sharewas higher in the postbellum U.S. South when compared to the North. Thispaper argues that such observations were largely due to the institution inher-ent from antebellum South. The distorted labor market in the South createdabundant supply of cheap labor in the region that was significantly correlatedwith low tractor adoption in the county level. Using detailed U.S. census data,it is found that the Mincerian wage predicted in the agricultural sector was sys-tematically lower in the South. Moreover, the wage gap was significantly largerin the areas with higher proportion of African American. To better understandthe causal relation, historical county-level slavery data has been employed asinstrumental variable. It is then concluded that low wage due to labor marketdistortion caused underdevelopment in the U.S. South.
The Rise of Shanghai: Civil War, Trade and Business Culture (Jointwith T.-C. Chan, I-C. Fan and P. Wang)
Using a unique panel dataset of number and size of market towns in the lowerYangtze Delta from sixteenth to twenty-first century, we document a shift ofregional center from an inland canal city to Shanghai. This change had hap-pened before Shanghai became an international trading hub. We emphasizethree factors that caused this observation: civil war, international trade andbusiness culture. The civil from 1840s to 1860s blocked the Grand Canal andcreated negative shock to the cities along, leading to large population migrationto Shanghai. The opening of Shanghai as a treaty port accelerated the growth inthe locality through agglomeration and learning from foreign business culture.A trade model that encompasses both warfare, migration and organizationalcapital is proposed to understand the interaction of different factors.
1
Minhyeon Jeong
Washington University in St. LouisDepartment of EconomicsOne Brookings Drive St. Louis, MO 63130
Phone: (314) 705-4814Email: [email protected]: https://sites.google.com/site/minhyeonjeong
Research Interests
Macroeconomics; growth, multiple equilibria, culture, institutions, optimal policy and humancapital
Education
Ph.D., Economics, Washinton University in St. Louis, USA 20122018 (Expected)
Dissertation: Essays on Economic Growth
Dissertation committee: Costas Azariadis (advisor), Rodolfo Manuelli, Yongseok Shin
M.A.,PEconomics, Seoul National University, Korea 2011
B.A.,P.Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Korea 2009
Research
Working Papers
Endogenous Financial Friction and Growth
Culture, Institutions and Growth
Work in Progress
Rent-Seeking, Institutions and Morality
Explaining Asian Growth Miracles through Culture: when Confucius meets Adam Smith
Publication
Optimal Policy in an Economy with Human Capital Where Money is Essential, 2015, EconomicsLetters 136, 103-107
mailto:[email protected]://sites.google.com/site/minhyeonjeong/
Minhyeon Jeong 2
Teaching
Economics and Society (TA) Spring 2017
The Economics of Financial Intermediation (TA) Fall 2015
Capital Market Imperfections and Entrepreneurial Finance (TA) Fall 2015
Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory (TA) Fall 2013, 2016; Spring 2014
Introduction to Macroeconomics (TA) Fall 2014; Spring 2015, 2016
Conferences
Midwest Macro Meetings Fall 2017, University of Pittsburgh Nov. 2017
11th Economic Graduate Student Conference, Washington University in St. Louis Oct. 2016
Fellowships
John Stuart Mill Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 20122017
Brain Korea 21, Seoul National University 20092011
Referee Service
Journal of Economic Growth
Programming
Fortran, Matlab, Stata
Language
English, Korean (native)
Citizenship
South Korea (F-1 visa)
Minhyeon Jeong 3
ReferencesCostas AzariadisEdward Mallinckrodt Distinguished ProfessorDepartment of EconomicsWashington University in St. [email protected]
Rodolfo ManuelliJames S. McDonnell Distinguished ProfessorDepartment of EconomicsWashington University in St. [email protected]
Yongseok ShinProfessorDepartment of EconomicsWashington University in St. [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]: [email protected]: [email protected]
Essays on Economic Growth
Minhyeon Jeong
Washington University in St. Louis
1. Endogenous Financial Friction and GrowthThe first chapter investigates the role financial frictions play in economic growth.
Most existing studies consider an exogenous form of borrowing constraint, the tight-
ness of which is arbitrarily fixed at a certain value over time. As a result, a sufficiently
tight constraint has, if any, a permanent growth effect. The main concern of the chap-
ter is that tightness can vary by economic circumstance, and hence, it will change in
different stages of economic development. If borrowers profits increase along with
economic growth, the tightness will be relaxed, implying an endogenous relaxation
of financial frictions. I develop a theory that has this property as a novel feature; I
then provide empirical evidence by applying OLS and dynamic panel GMM regres-
sions to support the endogenous relaxation hypothesis. The endogenous relaxation
implies that the growth effects of financial frictions are, at best, temporary; therefore
financial factors may not be fundamental determinants that underlie the long-term
economic prosperity.
2. Culture, Institutions and GrowthThe second chapter deals with culture and institutions as fundamental engines of
growth. To this end, I develop a theoretical framework in which culture (individual-
ism vs. collectivism), institutions (protection of property rights over innovations), and
growth are endogenously and jointly determined. I first summarize and corroborate
evidence about culture, institutions, and growth to make the model consistent with
empirical facts. The primary mechanism that drives the main conclusions of the chap-
ter is that culture and institutions are strategic complements. I show that there are
two steady states with opposing properties. One is a good steady state characterized
by strong individualism and secure protection of property rights with high long-run
growth. The other one is associated with strong collectivism and poor protection of
property rights; I refer to this bad steady state as the low-growth trap. The strategic
interaction between culture and institutions leads to not only multiple static equilib-
ria (multiple steady states) but also to multiple dynamic equilibria with contrasting
properties. Hence, if the low-growth trap is near the area where multiple dynamic
equilibria emerge, then collectivist countries tend to suffer from excess volatilitya
volatility that arises as the political regime switches endogenously between strong
and weak enforcement of property rights. The second chapter demonstrates the sig-
nificance of institutions for the economic prosperity of society, especially over the long
run. This conclusion provides motivation for investigating other roles of institutions,
which is the focus of the last chapter.
3. Rent-Seeking, Institutions and MoralityWhile the second chapter deals with public predation by the government, the third
chapter pays attention to rent-seeking as private predation, which has long been an
impediment to economic growth. It starts with this question: If rent-seeking is indeed
bad for an economy, why does it still prevail in many countries? That is, why did those
countries not eliminate rent-seeking activities long ago? This question leads to a con-
sideration of the factors underlying rent-seeking behavior. In this context, I develop
a model where rent-seeking activities result in long-lasting poverty through institu-
tions (the degree of enforcement of laws) and the morality of society, both of which
are endogenously determined. In the model, social morality is defined by how well
people can refrain from unproductive activities. I show that, in an economy where
institutions are selected as a collective choice, institutions which are effective against
rent-seeking are more likely to be established in a society with a robust morality.
Then, one important question follows: How can the government (or a group of peo-
ple) revive social morality to implement stronger institutions, particularly ones that
diminish rent-seeking? To tackle this question, I consider how propaganda (ideologies
that shape preferences or habits) affects morality either positively or negatively and
reach a conclusion: propaganda that succeeds in reviving morality promotes growth
since it moderates rent-seeking activities.
1
October 2017
Sie Won Kim
Department of Economics +1 (607) 351-4158
Washington University in St. Louis [email protected]
One Brookings Drive, Campus Box 1208 sites.wustl.edu/siewonkim
St. Louis, MO 63130
Research Interests
Applied Microeconomics, Labor Economics, Economics of Education
Doctoral Studies
Ph.D. in Economics, Washington University in St. Louis
Dissertation: Essays on Educational Choices
(expected) May 2018
Dissertation Committee: Juan Pantano (Chair), George-Levi Gayle, Carl Sanders
Prior Education
M.A. in Economics, Washington University in St. Louis May 2013
B.A. in Economics, magna cum laude, Cornell University May 2009
Working Papers
The Effect of Promoting Access to Community Colleges on Educational and Labor Market
Outcomes (Job Market Paper)
Promoting access to community colleges by providing either cheaper or better community college
education has mixed effects on student outcomes. I estimate a structural model of school and work
choices in which individuals are uncertain about the probabilities of obtaining a college degree. I evaluate
two policy counterfactuals designed to promote access to community colleges: 1) tuition subsidies for
community colleges and 2) better academic preparation for the students of community colleges. First, I
find that two-year college subsidies attract students who would have not attended college otherwise. The
increase in enrollment in two-year colleges translates to the increase in students wages, but it does not
translate to changes in the students completions of four-year college degrees. Second, when two-year
colleges provide better academic preparation, I find that enrollments in two-year colleges and the
completion rate of four-year colleges increase and students wages increase as well.
Quality of Public High Schools and Educational Choices
Research Experience
Research Assistant for Prof. Juan Pantano
Washington University in St. Louis Fall 2013-Spring 2016
Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy Summer 2014
https://sites.wustl.edu/siewonkim/
2
Teaching Experience
Instructor, University College at Washington University in St. Louis
Econometric Techniques Fall 2017
Teaching Assistant, Washington University in St. Louis
American Economic History Spring 2013
Introduction to Macroeconomics Fall 2012
Fellowships
Dissertation Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2016-2017
Summer Research Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2013, 2014, 2015
John Stuart Mill Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2011-2012
Programming Skills
Fortran, Matlab, R, Stata
Languages
English, Korean (native)
Citizenship
South Korea (F-1 Visa)
References
Juan Pantano (Chair)
Center for the Economics of Human Development
University of Chicago
Chicago, IL 60637
(773) 834-3215
George-Levi Gayle
Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
St. Louis, MO 63130
(314) 935-7472
Carl Sanders
Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
St. Louis, MO 63130
(314) 935-4437
1
Essays on Educational Choices
Sie Won Kim
Ph.D. Dissertation in Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
The Effect of Promoting Access to Community Colleges on Educational and Labor Market
Outcomes (Job Market Paper)
Promoting access to community colleges by providing either cheaper or better community
college education has mixed effects on student outcomes. I estimate a structural model of school
and work choices in which individuals are uncertain about the probabilities of obtaining a college
degree. I evaluate two policy counterfactuals designed to promote access to community colleges:
1) tuition subsidies for community colleges and 2) better academic preparation for the students of
community colleges. First, I find that two-year college subsidies attract students who would have
not attended college otherwise. The increase in enrollment in two-year colleges translates to the
increase in students wages, but it does not translate to changes in the students completions of
four-year college degrees. Second, when two-year colleges provide better academic preparation,
I find that enrollments in two-year colleges and the completion rate of four-year colleges
increase and students wages increase as well.
Quality of Public High Schools and Educational Choices
Public high schools in the U.S. are largely funded by local property taxes. As a result, high-
income school districts have more educational resources than low-income school districts. This
paper investigates the effect of the quality of public schools on the students enrollment decisions
and their academic achievements in college. I use the National Education Longitudinal Study of
1988 to create a measure of the quality of high schools by taking the average of the standardized
test scores of students in each school. I estimate a model of college enrollment and continuation
choices that allows for unobserved types of individuals. I find that the quality of high schools has
a positive effect on the probability of receiving a high SAT score and the probability of being
admitted to high-quality colleges. The counterfactual result suggests that the restriction on the
quality of public schools has a limited effect on the college enrollment and grade outcomes.
Rodolfo E. Oviedo Moguel
Department of Economics Washington University in St. Louis 1 Brookings Drive, Campus Box 1208 St. Louis, MO 63130, USA
Citizenship: Mexican (F1 visa) E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +1 314 954 6913 URL: https://sites.wustl.edu/roviedomoguel
Research Interests Macroeconomics, Quantitative Economics, Business Cycles Education Ph.D. in Economics Washington University in St. Louis 2018 (expected) Dissertation: Essays on Wealth Inequality and Macroeconomics Dissertation Committee: Michele Boldrin (advisor), Gaetano Antinolfi, David Wiczer
M.A. in Economics Washington University in St. Louis 2014
B.A. Economics (with honors) Instituto Tecnolgico Autnomo de Mxico 2009
Working Papers The role of credit on wealth inequality in the USA: 1980 2012. (Job Market Paper) A note about the relationship between capital income taxation and the capital share in the economy. The effect of housing on the distribution of wealth in the USA. with Juan Carlos Aquino Chavez Work in progress Top Income Shares Before Corporate Taxes in USA 1919 2013. The effects of Opening the Oil industry in Latin America to FDI. with Felipe Meza Goiz. Teaching Experience Washington University in St. Louis. Teaching Assistant for Introduction to Macroeconomics, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Introduction to Microeconomics, Money and Banking.
Relevant Experience Central Bank of Mexico: Dissertation Internship (June-August 2017). McKinsey & Company, Mexico City: Jr. Research Analyst (January-July 2012). Center of Economic Research, ITAM: Research Assistant for Felipe Meza Goiz (June 2010 December 2011). Awards, Honors and Distinctions Dissertation Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis, 2017-2018.
John Stuart Mill Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis, 2012 2017.
CONACYT/ITAM Fellowship for studies at ITAM. Honors for my undergrad thesis: Banamex and Tlacaelel award in economics. Languages and Software Spanish (native) and English (professional fluency) Matlab, Stata, LaTeX References
Michele Boldrin (main advisor) Department of Economics Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis, MO, 63130 [email protected]
Gaetano Antinolfi Department of Economics Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis, MO, 63130 [email protected]
David Wiczer Department of Economics Stony Brook University New York, 11794-4384 [email protected]
Essays on Wealth Inequality and Macroeconomics
Rodolfo E. Oviedo Moguel
Washington University in St. Louis
The role of credit on wealth inequality in the USA: 1980 - 2012.(Job Market Paper)
In the USA, the share of total household wealth held by the richest 1% increased from 23.5% in 1980 to 41.8% in 2012. Simple accounting shows that a sharp reduction in the savingrate of the bottom 90% accounts for around 40% of the change. I construct a quantitativemodel that, under a reasonable calibration, is able to replicate this fact. I then use the modelto decompose the total variation among some of the most likely candidates: (i) changes incredit conditions, (ii) increase in the concentration and riskiness of labor income and, (iii)reforms to the tax code. This decomposition exercise shows that, in the context of my model,the relaxation of the borrowing constraint explains around 50% of the increase in the shareof wealth going to the top 1%. The credit market channel is key to match the saving patternsobserved in the data and it has been ignored by the previous quantitative literature studyingthe changes in wealth inequality over the last 30 years.
A note about the relationship between capital income taxation and the capitalshare in the economy.
T. Piketty, proposed an increase in capital income taxation to reduce the share of NationalIncome going to capital and overall income inequality. We analyze the implications of thispolicy in an environment with a production function in which capital and labor are highlysubstitutable. Growth with this type of production can be classified in two cases: in casei) growth is endogenous and it depends on the substitution of labor by capital. In thiscontext, higher taxation decreases the capital share but it does so at the expense of lowergrowth. In case ii) growth depends on exogenous technological change and taxation canpotentially affect the share of capital income without affecting the long-term growth rate.In the context of case ii) we bring the model to the data for two periods, 1890-1915 and1950-1970, with different taxation schemes and find that while changes in taxation roughlymatch the evolution of the capital share they do so by implying a level of savings that ishighly counterfactual. This evidence suggest that capital income taxation was not the maindriver of the movements in the capital share in national income.
1
The effect of housing on the distribution of wealth in the USA.
Wealth inequality increased dramatically in the previous 40 years. We construct anheterogeneous agent model with two types of assets: housing and productive capital andevaluate the effect of the observed increase in the price of housing on the saving behaviorof different groups and hence on the wealth distribution. A percentage of the equity onhousing can be posted as collateral to issue non-mortgage debt and the increase in price ofhousing effectively relaxed the borrowing constraints and increased the permanent incomeof households. The result is an increase in Non-Mortgage debt for the households that wereoriginally constrained in line with the findings of Mian and Sufi (2011).
2
Faisal SohailDepartment of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis (314) 438-7982
One Brookings Drive, Box 1208 [email protected]
St. Louis, MO, 63130 www.faisal-sohail.com
Research Interests
Macroeconomics, Entrepreneurship, Development
Education
2018 WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST. LOUIS St Louis, MOPhD. in Economics (expected)Dissertation: Essays in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Inequality"Dissertation Committee: Yongseok Shin (advisor), Alexander Monge-Naranjo, Ping Wang
2011 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE Easton, PAB.A. in Mathematics and EconomicsHonors in Economics
Working Papers
Employer Size and Spinout Dynamics (Job Market Paper), October 2017
Skill Biased Entrepreneurial Decline with Helu Jiang, August 2017
Financial Frictions and Inequality with Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Monge-Naranjo and CtiradSlavik, October 2017
Federal Reserve Bank Publications
"Health Care, Hospitality and Retirees Keep Hot Springs Afloat", with Charles Gascon. The RegionalEconomist, July 2016.
"Many Countries Sink or Swim on Commodity Pricesand on Orders from China", with AlexanderMonge-Naranjo. The Regional Economist, April 2016.
"The Unemployment and Participation Rates for Aggregate Human Capital", with Alexander Monge-Naranjo. Economic Synopses, December 2015, No. 27.
"Age and Gender Differences in Long-Term Unemployment: Before and After the Great Recession",with Alexander Monge-Naranjo. Economic Synopses, November 2015, No. 26.
"The Composition of Long-Term Unemployment Is Changing toward Older Workers", with AlexanderMonge-Naranjo. The Regional Economist, October 2015.
Research Experience
INNOVATIONS FOR POVERTY ACTION (IPA) - PROJECT COORDINATOR
Financial Inclusion Program - Take-up and Usage of Mobile Money in Pakistan NOV 2016 - AUG 2017
1
mailto:[email protected]
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS - TECHNICAL RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
Research Division AUG 2014 - JUN 2016
LAFAYETTE COLLEGE - RESEARCH ASSISTANT
Economics Department - Supervisor: Prof. David Stifel MAY - AUG 2010
Teaching ExperienceINSTRUCTOR - WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST. LOUIS
Introduction to Macroeconomics SUMMER 2014
TEACHING ASSISTANT - WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST. LOUIS
Introduction to Econometrics FALL 2013, SPRING 2014
Introduction to Macroeconomics SPRING 2013
Introduction to Microeconomics FALL 2012
Conference and Seminar PresentationsMidwest Macro Meetings, University of Pittsburgh NOV 2017 (scheduled)
Economics Department, Lafayette College OCT 2017
Macro Study Group, Washington University in St. Louis FALL 2017
Macro Study Group, Washington University in St. Louis SPRING 2016
Fellowships and AwardsDissertation Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2017-2018
Summer Research Grant, Washington University in St. Louis SUMMER 2012
John Stuart Mills Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2011-2012
Referee ServicesReview of Development Economics, Economia
AffiliationsGraduate Student Fellow, Center for Economic Research in Pakistan AUG 2017-
Department ServicesPresident, Economics Graduate Student Association 2014-2016
Organizer, 8th Annual Economics Graduate Student Conference 2013
Programming SkillsC++, Matlab, Python, Stata, R
Personal InformationCitizenship: Pakistan (F-1 Visa) Gender: Male Born: 19th Dec. 1989
Langauges: English (fluent), Urdu (native)
2
References
Yongseok Shin Alexander Monge-Naranjo
Department of Economics Research Division
Washington University in St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
St. Louis, MO 63130 St. Louis, MO 63166
[email protected] [email protected]
Ping Wang
Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
St. Louis, MO 63130
Last Updated: October 19, 2017
3
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
Essays in Entrepreneurship, Economic Development and Inequality
Faisal Sohail
PhD Dissertation in EconomicsWashington University in St. Louis
Employer Size and Spinout Dynamics (Job Market Paper)
Most new firms are founded by former employees of existing firms - spinouts. This paper studies therelationship between employer size and spinout entry, size and growth. Using micro-data from MexicoI document a negative relationship between employer size and spinout entry. That is, employees fromsmall firms are more likely to form spinouts than those from large firms. Second, I uncover a novel, pos-itive relationship between employer size and spinout size both at entry and over the lifecycle. Spinoutsfrom large employers start larger and grow faster than spinouts from smaller employers. I reconcile thesefindings in a simple model of occupational choice and firm dynamics in which workers can adopt theproductivity of their employers to form spinouts. This model is used to understand the lower rates ofspinout entry in the US relative to Mexico. I assess the quantitative importance of differences in aggre-gate productivity and the efficiency with which workers learn from employers - interpreted as a form ofmanagement - in driving differences in aggregate outcomes. I find that productivity differences aloneonly explain 29% of the gap in spinout rates. Instead, differences in efficiency of spinout formation arenecessary to explain differences not only in spinout rates but also firm size and dynamics in US and Mex-ico. These findings highlight the potential of management practices to not only impact incumbent firmsbut also future entrants - spinouts.
Skill Biased Entrepreneurial Decline
The U.S. is undergoing a long-term decline in the rate of firm startups. We show that this slowdown inentrepreneurship is more pronounced for skilled individuals. Between 1983 and 2006, entry intoentrepreneurship declined 11% for those with at least a college degree and increased by 18% for thosewith at most a high school degree. We posit that this skill biased entrepreneurial decline is driven by thechanging income structure of workers and entrepreneurs that occurred over the same period. We showthat entrepreneurial income grew more slowly than workers income for skilled individuals while forunskilled individuals both incomes grew at relatively similar rates. To quantify the impact of incomestructure on entrepreneurial entry we present a simple, heterogeneous agent occupational choice modeland take as given a rising worker skill premium; driven by skill biased technical change. In the model,the rising skill premium can account for around two-thirds of the observed change in entry of skilledand unskilled individuals.
Financial Market Liberalization and Inequality
We document that financial market liberalization led to an increase of top inequality and a decrease ofbottom inequality. We emphasize two important spill overs from the financial sector to the real economy.First, financial market liberalization leads to an increased demand for high skilled labor. This leads to arelative shortage of low skilled workers, suppressing inequality in the left tail of the distribution. Second,capital skill complementarities in production disproportionately drive up wages of workers with strongcomplementarity to capital. We provide evidence for both mechanisms. We next build a two sector modelwith a financial sector and a real sector to quantify the relative role of financial market liberalization forthe trends of inequality.
1
Xi Wang
ContactInformation
Department of Economics (+1) 573-292-9098Washington University in St. Louis [email protected]. Louis, MO 63130 https://sites.wustl.edu/xiwang
ResearchInterests
Asset Pricing, Monetary and Quantitative Economics, Applied Econometrics
Education Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO
Ph.D., Economics Expected: May, 2018
Advisors: Costas Azariadis (Chair), Michele Boldrin and Gaetano Antinolfi
M.S., Economics May, 2014
Wuhan University, China
M.S., Economics Jun, 2012
B.S., Finance and Math (Double Major) Jun, 2008
TeachingExperience
Adjunct Faculty Aug, 2016 to May, 2017Department of Economics, Appointed Spring, 2018Saint Louis UniversitySupervisor: Heather Bednarek and Hailong Qian
Instructor Summer, 2016Department of Economics,Washington University in St. LouisSupervisor: Dorothy Petersen
Adjunct Faculty Summer, 2015Department of Economics,University of MissouriSt. LouisSupervisor: Michael T. Allison
Lecture Slides, Notesand Evaluations https://sites.wustl.edu/xiwang/teaching
Working Papers Quality Consumption and Asset Pricing
The Quantity Theory of Money: An Empirical and Quantitative Reassessment
Learning From the Stock Market: Lending Cycles of Commercial Banks
Simultaneous Estimation under a DSGE Framework: Disinflation Policy againstRelative Uncertainty
Breakdowns of the Quantity Theory of Money: Evidence from Monetary Historyof Thirteen Countries
In Progress Two Granger Tests under a Time Varying VAR Framework
Optimal Time of Filing for Brankrupcy under Limited Liability
Is Leverage Always Bad? Positive Evidence from A Quantitative Exercise
An Evolving Payment System: Another Component of Money Supply
Papers are available https://sites.wustl.edu/xiwang/research
1 of 2
mailto:[email protected]://sites.wustl.edu/xiwanghttps://wustl.edu/https://economics.wustl.edu/http://pages.wustl.edu/azariadihttp://www.micheleboldrin.com/http://pages.wustl.edu/gaetanohttps://economics.wustl.edu/http://en.whu.edu.cn/http://ems.whu.edu.cn/EN/http://ems.whu.edu.cn/EN/http://business.slu.edu/departments/economics/https://www.slu.edu/http://business.slu.edu/departments/economics/faculty-staff/heather-bednarek/http://business.slu.edu/departments/economics/faculty-staff/hailong-qianhttps://economics.wustl.edu/https://wustl.edu/https://economics.wustl.edu/dorothy_petersenhttp://www.umsl.edu/econ/http://www.umsl.edu/http://www.umsl.edu/econ/Faculty%20and%20Staff/allison.htmlhttps://sites.wustl.edu/xiwang/teachinghttps://sites.wustl.edu/xiwang/research
Programming C++, Matlab, Fortran, R, Python, and Stata
WorkingExperience
Wukong Investment, Shenzhen ChinaA Private Equity Fund, Registered in China Securities Regulatory Commission
Analyst Apr, 2009 to Mar, 2010
Associate Apr, 2010 to Sep, 2011
TeachingAssistantExperience
Quantitative Methods in Economics, PhD Level Fall 2013 - Spring 2016Applied Econometrics, PhD LevelAdvanced Theory, PhD LevelApplied Econometrics, Undergraduate Level
References Costas Azariadis (Chair)Edward Mallinckrodt Distinguished University Professor Phone: 314-935-5639Department of Economics Fax: 314-935-4156Washington University in St. Louis E-mail: [email protected]
Michele BoldrinJoseph Gibson Hoyt Distinguished Professor Phone: 314-935-5636Department of Economics Fax: 314-935-4156Washington University in St. Louis E-mail: [email protected]
Gaetano AntinolfiProfessor Phone: 314-935-7335Department of Economics Fax: 314-935-4156Washington University in St. Louis E-mail: [email protected]
2 of 2
http://pages.wustl.edu/azariadimailto:[email protected]://www.micheleboldrin.com/mailto:[email protected]://pages.wustl.edu/gaetanomailto:[email protected]
Essays on Financial and Monetary Economics
Xi Wang
Quality Consumption and Asset PricingJob Market Paper
Following a brief review of previous literature, this paper provides another angle to understandthe equity premium puzzle. Since only the wealthiest people invest significant amounts in thestock market (limited participation), it is reasonable to combine the consumption data of thewealthy, instead of aggregate data, with observed asset returns to estimate the risk aversioncoefficient (RRA). I follow two approaches to create several indices of quality consumptionto approximate the consumption of the wealthy. I argue they are good approximations to theconsumption of the wealthy. And by using the quality goods index, the lowest RRA estimate isslightly around three. This estimate is lower than most previous results. Furthermore, when Iuse my data to fit more moments besides excess return, the estimate of RRA increases modestly,e.g., returns of 25 size and booktomarket portfolios, estimates of RRA are between 3 and 18.I conclude that quality indices, which are good approximations to the consumption of the rich,provide a useful vantage point from which we can reassess the theory of consumption-basedasset pricing.
The Quantity Theory of Money: An Empirical and Quantitative Reassessment
This paper shows that recent financial innovations play a major role in the collapse of QTMin the U.S. I find that the bandpass filtered growth of M2 is more robustly associated withinflation than M1, though the M2 version of QTM also broke down during the early 1990s. Inext decompose U.S credit issuing, a major component of depository institutions assets. I findthat real estate not only generates demands for mortgage loans but also serves as an importantcollateral to create other loans. To confirm that money generation is closely linked to real-estate, I explore a historical price index of real estate and find a one-to-one long-run relationshipbetween money (M2) and house price indices. Furthermore, this relationship is more robustthan the one between money and inflation of final goods. Next, I combine this money creationprocess with a collateral borrowing model, which is used to model financial innovations. Aftercalibrating the parameters, I use this model to generate 10000 data sequences and run a QTMregression for each. My estimation confirms that during the progressive process of financialinnovation starting in early-1990s, the effects of money on inflation is mild: the mean (std) ofthe effects is 0.56 (0.05), significantly less than 1.
Learning From the Stock Market: Lending Cycles of Commercial Banks
This paper links fluctuations in the stock market with lending cycles through a risk inferringapproach. Equity is viewed as a call option on a risky asset and held by shareholders who havebetter (inside) information about the risky asset than outside lenders. Stock market fluctuationsignals the true value of the underlying risky asset, and further the distance from defaulting(exercising this option). Lenders learn this risk and react accordingly. Taking the interestrate and stock market performance as exogenous inputs, I simulate a sequence of newly issuedloans and further estimate the stock of loans. The correlation between the cyclical part ofthis simulated loan and data (commercial and industrial loans) is 0.15 (1947-2015), while thecoefficient increases to 0.21 for post-1960 and post-1970, 0.45 for post-1980, 0.52 for post-1990,0.59 for post-2000. I conclude that this learning process became more important, especiallyafter the 1980s.
https://sites.wustl.edu/xiwang
October26,2017
Yvonne (Yinghong) Zhang (+1)314-399-4033 [email protected] sites.wustl.edu/yinghong
1 Brookings Drive, Campus Box 1208 St. Louis, MO 63130, U.S.A.
FIELDS Primary fields: Labor, Applied Microeconomics Secondary fields:Entrepreneurship, Applied Econometrics
EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Washington University in St. Louis, U.S.A (expected) May 2018 M.Phil., Economics, Washington University in St. Louis, U.S.A May 2015 B.A., Economics & B.S. Mathematics, Wuhan University, China June 2013
RESEARCH Working paper How Does Family Structure Affect Entrepreneurship (JMP) Empirical Analyses on the Secular Decline of Self-employment in the United States, with Barton Hamilton (WUSTL) A Dynamic View of Female Self-employment Decisions, with Chuan Chen (WUSTL)
Works in progress Information Technology and the Recent Decline of Entrepreneurship in the United States, with Lijun Zhu (WUSTL) Entrepreneurship and Life Satisfaction in Australia and China, with Zheng Fang (Singapore University of Social Science)
Other papers Micro and Macro Perspectives of SME Credit Guarantee Situation in China, B.A. Economics Thesis On Models of Credit Risk Management: CreditMetrics vs. KMV model, B.S. Mathematics Thesis
Research Assistantship Professor Barton Hamilton, Washington University in St. Louis, 2015Current Professor Yonggang Ye, Wuhan University, 2012
PUBLICATION Empirical Research of Overseas Talents Attraction Based on Game Theory and Incentive Model, [In Chinese] Yinghong Zhang (1st author), Yichen Chen, Hengjin Cai. The Conference on Web Based Business Management, 2012
PRESENTATIONS Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting, Nov. 2017 12th Annual Economics Graduate Students Conference, Oct. 2017 Guest speaker at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, June 2017 China Meeting of the Econometric Society, June 2017 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, May 2017 The Midwest Economics Association Annual Meeting, March 2017 Income Inequality Group, Jan, March, April, Nov. 2016; Feb, March. 2017, Department Seminars, 2016
October26,2017
TEACHING Instructor, Washington University in St. Louis, Summer 2015 Introduction to Macroeconomics (Unsolicited recommendation letter from Cady Fu, [email protected])
Teaching Assistant, Washington University in St. Louis Econ 1011 Introduction to Microeconomics, 2014 Fall, 2016 Fall, 2017 Spring Econ 1021 Introduction to Macroeconomics, 2017 Spring Econ 380 Labor and the Economy, 2015 Fall Econ 4721 Advanced Topics in Modern Economic Growth, 2016 Spring Econ 4021 Merge Intermediate Macroeconomics Theory, 2016 Spring Econ 4011 Intermediate Microeconomic Theory, 2015 Spring, 2015 Fall B64.MEC.595 Market Competition & Value Appropriation, 2017 Spring B64.MEC.722.04 Managerial Economics: Incentives, Markets and Competition, 2017 Fall
Teaching Assistant, Wuhan University Time Series Analysis & Monetary Theory, 2012 Fall (Junior-level courses)
Teaching Center Workshop Certificates Incorporating Active Learning into Lectures (2013); Teaching a Discussion Class (2014); Writing a Teaching Philosophy Statement (2016); Gathering Evidence of Teaching Effectiveness (2017)
FELLOWSHIPS/AWARDS PhD scholarship, Institute for Humane Studies (48 recipients in the United States) 20172018 Dissertation Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 20172018 Summer Research Grant, Washington University in St. Louis 20152017 Schwartz Family Scholarship, Washington University in St. Louis (2 recipients) 20142015 School-level Merit Student & First Prize Scholarship (Top 1%), Wuhan University 20102013 Research Grant of Scientific Research & Innovative Experiment of Undergraduate 2013 Honorable Mention in International Contest in Modeling 2012 National Computer Rank Examination Certificate 2011 Second Prize in The Electrician Mathematical Contest in Modeling 2011 Prize in China Undergraduate Mathematical Contest in Modeling 2010
LANGUAGES English (Fluent), Chinese (Native)
COMPUTER SKILLS STATA, R, PYTHON, MATLAB, FORTRAN (basic); Microsoft Office; SQL
REFERENCES BARTON H. HAMILTON (Chair) ROBERT A. POLLAK Olin Business School, WUSTL Olin Business School, WUSTL (+1)314-935-8057, [email protected] (+1)314-935-4918, [email protected] CARL SANDERS Department of Economics, WUSTL (+1)314-935-4437, [email protected]
October27,2017
Essays on Entrepreneurship Yvonne (Yinghong) Zhang
Ph.D. Dissertation in Economics, Washington University in St. Louis Please click here for an updated version
How Does Family Structure Affect Entrepreneurship? [Job Market Paper]
This paper identifies an important causal effect of marriage on entrepreneurship by using a recent marriage policy reform in Australia as a natural experiment. The 2008 federal policy reform requires de facto couples (similar to the common-law marriage) and married couples to be treated equally in terms of divorce or separation procedure in all states. I focus on two major states in Australia: Queensland which already had a similar law in place, and New South Wales which did not have any such legislation before the reform. Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey data for the years 2001 to 2015, I demonstrate that the policy reform has a positive effect on the marital decision and entrepreneurial decision through a difference-in-difference approach. By using the policy reform as an instrument variable, I show that marriage can increase the likelihood to be an entrepreneur by 7.96% for males and 1.19% for females. This causal effect, however, does not appear to come from the current theory of family-insurance incentive of marriage, since I find it is more likely each partner in a married couple is an entrepreneur than that only one of partner is an entrepreneur. Instead, I argue that this causal effect is driven by the commitment to a marital relationship, which facilitates household specialization and joint entrepreneurship. Empirical Analyses on the Secular Decline of Self-employment in the United States with Barton H. Hamilton (WUSTL)
Intrigued by a secular decline of self-employment in the United States from 13% to 8% since the early 1990s, we propose an altered-Probit approach to explain this decline by analyzing a variety of factors, including demographic characteristics (age, education, marriage, race), industry, and geographic factors. We find this decline is driven by the decline of male non-incorporated self-employment. Mainly using data from CPS merged Outgoing Rotation Groups, we focus on three working classes: salaried worker, incorporated self-employed, and non-incorporated self-employed. We stress the gender difference, and demonstrate that different factors have affected the self-employment tendency differently for men and women. Moreover, we analyze the transition to begin or end self-employment, particularly examining the real wage effect, and how this effect changes over time. A Dynamic View of Female Self-employment Decisions with Chuan Chen (WUSTL)
We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model, extending existing work by incorporating self-employment and part-time/full-time choices, and household's joint-characteristics. This model allows us to better understand the interplay between personal characteristics, such as age, marriage status, and education level, as well as the household's joint-characteristics for married couples, such as assortative mating in terms of education, family income, and the presence of a child. Our model can explain the downward trend of female self-employment rate in Australia from 2001 to 2015 through the perspective of the decreased marriage share, and an increased assortative mating.
Lijun ZhuPlacement Director: Yongseok Shin [email protected] (314) 935-7138Assistant Director: Carissa Re [email protected] (314) 935-9529
CONTACT INFORMATION:Department of Economics (314) 540-9907Washington University in St. Louis [email protected] Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130 USA sites.wustl.edu/lijunzhu
RESEARCH INTERESTS:Macroeconomics, Labor Market, Inequality, Growth and Development, Economic History
EDUCATION:Ph.D. in Economics, Washington University in St. Louis, 2012-present
Dissertation: Essays on Macroeconomics and Economic DevelopmentCommittee: Michele Boldrin (advisor), Rody Manuelli (co-chair), Yongs Shin, Ping WangExpected Completion Date: May 2018
M.A. in Economics, Tsinghua University, 2009-2012B.A. in Economics, Tsinghua University, 2005-2009
REFEREED PUBLICATIONS:Social-economic Change and Its Impact on Violence: Homicide History of Qing China (withZhiwu Chen and Kaixiang Peng), Explorations in Economic History 63 (2017): 8-25.
WORKING PAPERS:Industrial Concentration and the Declining Labor Share (Job Market Paper)
WORK IN PROGRESS:Information Technology and the Recent Decline of Entrepreneurship in the United States (withYvonne (Yinghong) Zhang)Industrial Concentration and Jobless Recovery
TEACHING AND RESEARCH EXPERIENCES:Instructor at Washington University
Introduction to Macroeconomics Summer 2016Teaching Assistant
Innovation and Intellectual Property: Theory and Practice Spring 2016Introduction to Macroeconomics Fall 2015Macroeconomics I, II (Ph.D. Core) Fall 2013-Spring 2014Game Theory and Information Economics Fall 2011
Research AssitantRA at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (supervisor: Juan Sanchez) 2014-2015RA at Tsinghua University (supervisor: Zhiwu Chen) 2010-2012
1
CONFERENCE AND PRESENTATIONS:John Cook School of Business at St. Louis University scheduled Nov 2017SED Annual Meeting in Edinburgh, UK. June 2017Frontiers in Chinese Economic History, Berkeley, CA., US. Nov 2015Income Inequality Group and Macro Study Group at Washington University 2015-2017
FELLOWSHIPS, HONORS, AND AWARDS:Graduate Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2015-2017Teaching Assistantship, Washington University in St. Louis 2013-2015John Stuart Mill Fellowship, Washington University in St. Louis 2012-2013Scholarship for Academic/Comprehensive Performances, Tsinghua University 2006-2009
PROGRAMMING:Stata, Matlab, Fortran(basic)
LANGUAGES:English (fluent), Chinese (native)
CITIZENSHIP:China (F1 Visa)
REFERENCES:
Prof. Michele Boldrin Prof. Rody ManuelliDepartment of Economics Department of EconomicsWashington University in St. Louis Washington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, MO 63130, USA St. Louis, MO 63130, [email protected] [email protected](314) 935-5636 (314) 935-6346
Prof. Yongseok Shin Prof. Ping WangDepartment of Economics Department of EconomicsWashington University in St. Louis Washington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, MO 63130, USA St. Louis, MO 63130, [email protected] [email protected](314) 935-7138 (314) 935-4236
2
Essays on Macroeconomics and Economic DevelopmentLijun Zhu
Washington University in St. Louis
Industrial Concentration and the Declining Labor Share (Job Market Paper)
In the United States the labor share of national income has declined since the 1980s and especially after2000. My model focuses on the role played by technological change in this process and is motivated bythree facts I document. (i) Across sectors, there is a negative correlation between changes in concentrationand changes in the labor share; (ii) large firms usually exhibit a smaller labor share; (iii) in sectors wherethe labor share declines the decline is especially strong among large firms. Specifically, gains in labor pro-ductivity are not associated with comparable increases in wages. I provide a rationale for these facts byassuming that capital and labor are complementary inputs and technological progress is labor saving. Underthese assumptions, my model predicts a negative correlation between firm size and labor share. Further, theadoption of new technologies diminishes the labor shares in large firms and increases their market share.As a consequence, the aggregate labor share declines. This technological channel is consistent with theevolution of labor productivity across sectors during the last 30 years.
Socio-economic Change and Its Impact on Violence: Homicide History of Qing China
This paper constructs a quantitative history of the homicide rate in Qing China and investigates its socialand economic drivers. Estimates based on historical archives indicate that this annual rate ranged between0.35 and 1.47 per 100,000 inhabitants during the 1661 1898 period, a low level unmatched by WesternEurope until the late 19th century. Chinas homicide rate rose steadily from 1661 to 1821 but declinedgradually thereafter until the turn of the century. Although extreme, homicide represents a random samplingof the entire distribution of interpersonal violence; hence the homicide rate serves as a proxy for overallviolence, and its rise implies a decline in personal security. We use national and cross-provincial panel datato show that population density, state capacity, local self-governance, interregional grain market integration,and grain price level (which captures crop failure and other survival distress) are all statistically significantdrivers of the homicide rate in 18th- and 19th-century China.
Information Technology and the Recent Decline of Entrepreneurship in the United States
The self employment rate, measured as the fraction of self employed persons in total employment, declinesfrom 10.07% in 1988 to 8.03% in 2015 in the United States. A within-between decomposition shows that54% of the decline is from Retail Trade (46%) and Wholesale Trade (8%). Another important driver isProfessional and Business Services. Our conjecture is that the rapid progress of information technologycontributes to this declining trend (e.g. Amazon replaces book stores). Using the fraction of logisticsemployment as a proxy of online retailing, we find that people are less likely to become self employed,especially in Trade sectors, in areas where logistics employment share is high. Across metropolitan areas,the self employment rate in Trade sectors declines when logistics employment share increases over time.
1
Job Market Packet_coverjobmarketletter2017Summary Sheets 17-18_aCV_Aquino.pdfContact InformationCitizenshipPrimary FieldsSecondary FieldsEducationAppointmentsOther StudiesAwards, Honors and DistinctionsResearchConferencesTeachingComputer SkillsLanguagesPeer Review WorkAcademic References
cv_AUM.pdfEducationWorking PapersResearch in ProgressPublicationPublications (in Korean)WorkTeachingWashington University in St. LouisYonsei University
Awards and ScholarshipsPresentationsConference & WorkshopSeminar
LanguageReferences
CV_Xi_Oct18.pdfContact InformationResearch InterestsEducationTeaching ExperienceWorking PapersIn ProgressProgrammingWorking ExperienceTeaching Assistant ExperienceReferences
