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Jobs for Tomorrow Canada’s Building Trades and Net Zero Emissions
A study on the construction industry’s role in Canada’s transition to a low carbon economy
Executive Summary
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ABOUT THIS STUDY
• Jobs for Tomorrow was
commissioned by Canada’s
Building Trade Unions and
written and published by
Columbia Institute.
• To date, very little research
has been undertaken on the
construction industry’s role
in Canada’s ongoing
economic restructuring and
low-carbon development.
• This study marks the first-time original research has been undertaken to examine potential
impacts on Canada’s construction industry.
THIS PAPER EXPLORES some possible implications for the building trades in the context of global
warming and Canada’s commitments to climate action. The construction industry plays a critical role in
the national economy by supporting production in all other sectors. Rather than resulting in net job
losses, a net zero Canadian economy has the potential to create huge opportunities for those in
construction and other industries.
As one of 197 international signatories to the Paris Agreement, Canada has pledged to achieve net zero
emissions — a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and their absorption across Canada by
natural and man-made means — between 2050 and 2100 in order to keep global warming below 2°C
and work toward 1.5°C of warming. Without policies in place to address global warming, the world is
on track to reach average temperatures of over 4°C by the end of this century.
Canada’s current national commitment is to reduce emissions by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by
2030. This paper goes beyond Canada’s current commitments, accelerating the transition to envision
an aspirational scenario in which the Canadian economy has achieved net zero by 2050.
• This study was launched at a Concert Properties construction site in Vancouver on August 10th
to a gathering of media and Building Trades members working on the site.
• Since its release on August 10th, this study has received significant media coverage and interest
in the findings continues to pour in from Canada and around the world.
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ABOUT CANADA’S BUILDING TRADES UNIONS
Canada’s Building Trades Unions
(CBTU) are a major stakeholder in
the construction industry, which
has a critical role to play in the
transformation to a low-carbon
economy. The national
organization has a membership of
more than half a million
construction workers, who are
employed in more than 60
different trades and occupations.
The total construction labour force
is made up five categories under
Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and related occupations. These are:
• Industrial, electrical and construction trades
• Maintenance and equipment operation trades
• Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers
• Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations
• Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations.
As an umbrella organization for construction unions in Canada, the following international unions are affiliated
with Canada’s Building Trades Unions (CBTU).
• International Brotherhood of Boilermakers
• International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Ironworkers
• International Association of Heat & Frost Insulators & Allied Workers
• Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association of the U.S. and Canada
• International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters
• International Union of Bricklayers & Allied Craftworkers
• International Union of Elevator Constructors
• International Union of Operating Engineers
• International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
• Labourer's International Union of North America
• Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
• United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry of the U.S. and Canada
• United Brotherhood of Carpenters
• Unite Here
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GLOBAL CONTEXT
• A massive transition is
underway worldwide.
• Countries are
“decarbonizing” their
infrastructure, industries and
economies in order to stave
off the worst impacts of
climate change. This shift is
gathering speed and will
impact all sectors of our
society.
• 197 nations have signed on
to the Paris Agreement agreeing to slash greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep global warming below 2
degrees Celsius.
• The global transition to a low-
carbon economy will require
an investment of less than 4%
of the current total global
annual investment in
construction activity.
• Recent studies indicate that
over the past three years the
global economy grew while
greenhouse gas emissions
from energy production and
delivery declined.
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• The International Trade Union
Confederation forecasts that
investments of 2 per cent of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in the green economy over a 5-
year period in 12 countries
could create up to 48 million
new jobs or up to 9.6 million
new jobs per year including
more than 17 million jobs in the
construction sector.
• The World Green Building
Council (WGBC) has called for all
buildings to be net zero by 2050 through new construction and deep renovation. (Homes and buildings
account for one-quarter of all of Canada’s emissions.)
• As the move to build a post-carbon world accelerates, the building trades are seeing benefits for their
members globally.
CANADIAN CONTEXT
• Canada’s ability to meet its
Paris commitments will be
based on the construction of
new infrastructure for the
generation of electricity
using renewable sources.
• Serious efforts to
decarbonize the Canadian
economy will create
significant opportunities for
those in construction trades.
• Getting to net zero in Canada
will mean replacing GHG-emitting sources of power with clean energy. At the same time, Canada’s
population is projected to grow to 48 million by 2050.
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• Historically, a statistical relationship exists between oil and gas sector value-added and GHG emissions, in
which both variables move in the same direction.
• 2008-2009: During the
recession, both variables
declined due to falling
demand for energy.
• Mid-2000’s - 2010: A similar
pattern is seen during
periods of growth and
economic recovery.
• These fluctuations are
characterized by short-term
business cycles and driven by
changes in the Canadian
economy.
• In 2014 on the far right of the chart, there is a divergence between oil and gas sector value-added and GHG
emissions. Researchers believe this indicates a ‘delinking’ or ‘decoupling’ of the economy from the oil and
gas industry. And this is consistent with global trends.
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KEY FINDINGS
Note:
o Targets in this report go
beyond Canada’s current green
house gas emissions targets
and are in-line with the Paris
Agreement goals of working
towards keeping global
warming to 1.5c degrees.
o This is an aspirational scenario
that shows the job impacts of
achieving net zero by 2050.
o A “job” in this report means a year of direct employment in the construction industry (1500 hrs).
o While these estimates are rough, we believe they are also conservative.
Building Trades and Net Zero Emissions
• The construction industry has a vital role to play in meeting Canada’s climate goals by supporting production
in other sectors including electricity generation, efficient buildings and new transportation infrastructure.
• Canada’s ability to meet our climate goals will be based on the construction of new facilities for the
generation of electricity using renewable sources, including hydro, wind, solar, tidal, biomass and
geothermal energy.
• In addition, it will require the construction and maintenance of more efficient buildings and transportation
infrastructure.
• These net-zero initiatives will require the work of a variety of trades people including masons, boilermakers,
pipefitters, insulators, electrical workers, glaziers, HVAC, linemen, ironworkers and other construction
trades.
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Electricity Supply: Building Tomorrow’s Grid
Building tomorrow’s grid will result in significant jobs for Canadian construction workers.
Moving to an electrical supply grid composed primarily of hydroelectric (40 per cent),
new wind, solar, geothermal, and tidal power generation (44 per cent combined), and
legacy nuclear (5 per cent), would result in over 1,048,900 direct construction jobs by
2050. This total assumes a low-end 2050 demand scenario.
Here’s how it breaks down:
• Wind power: at 25% by 2050 creates 209,360 full-time construction jobs;
• Solar power: at 10% by 2050 creates 438,350 construction jobs;
• Tidal and wave power: at 5% by 2050 creates 109,770 construction jobs;
• Geothermal power: at 4% by 2050 creates 30,300 jobs for construction workers;
• Hydroelectric power: at 40% by 2050 creates 30,760 person-years of construction
employment;
• Nuclear power: at 5% by 2050 creates 30,360 construction jobs; and
• Transmission line construction would create 200,000 construction jobs.
Smart Communities: Efficient Buildings and District Energy Systems
• Net zero building retrofits and new “green” commercial, industrial,
and
institutional building construction are predicted to account for
1,997,6401 direct
non-residential construction jobs.
• Building small district energy systems in half of Canada’s
municipalities with
populations over 10,000 would create almost 22,000 construction
jobs by 2050.
Transportation
• Building out $150 billion of urban transit infrastructure — including
rapid transit tracks and bridges, subway tunnels, and dedicated
bus lanes — between now and 2050 would create about 245,000
direct construction jobs.
IN TOTAL, MEETING CANADA’S CLIMATE GOALS could generate over 3.3 million direct jobs in the
building trades by 2050, and 17 million jobs if induced, indirect, and supply-chain jobs are included.
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PATHWAYS
What are the Pathways to Jobs in a Low-Carbon Economy?
The report includes a case study
on the remarkable work in
California that has generated
hundreds of thousands of good,
union jobs that contributed to
decreasing GHG emissions.
This was driven largely by a public
policy known as the Renewable
Portfolio Standard (RES) that
required utilities to include a
larger percentage of renewables.
And was supported by
government-led partnerships to
provide training and apprenticeship opportunities.
This economic transformation on
a global level will require an
investment of an additional
US$220 billion by 2020.
BUT - This is less than 4 per cent
of the current total global annual
investment in construction activity
($8.5 trillion/year).
Returns on this investment could
be as high as 124 per cent if
ambitious policy and technology
actions are taken.
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CONCLUSION
• As the global movement to net zero emissions accelerates, the building trades are seeing the
benefits for their members.
• In BC and across Canada, good jobs could be a significant, added benefit of climate action.
