Numerical Weather and Environmental Prediction and Nowcasting for the 2010
Vancouver Winter Olympics
Jocelyn Mailhot, George Issac and Charles Lin
Atmospheric Science and Technology DirectorateNovember 16, 2009
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The Meteorological Service of Canada of Environment Canada has the mandate and contractual obligation to provide weather support and services for the safety and security of the public and the effective and efficient operation of the games. The issues include:
Olympics: Feb 12-28, 2010 Paralympics: Mar 12-21, 2010
• Event conditions and safety for public, television and competitors
• Venue operations for the public
• Support to essential federal services primarily security
• Transportation issues for VANOC
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Whistler/Blackcomb Area Sites
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• Experimental numerical prediction system with 3 components
1. REPS - Regional Ensemble Prediction System (lead M. Charron)2. high-resolution numerical prototype (lead J. Mailhot)
– GEM-LAM model cascade down to 1 km (15km/2.5km/1km);– improved physics
3. land surface modeling and assimilation system at microscales (100 m) – (lead S. Bélair)
• Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) A World Weather Research Program Project (lead G. Issac)
EC activities related to VO2010
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Forecasting challenges
• Some of the Olympic events have extremely sensitive thresholds for decision:
Sport and Weather
New Snow (24 hours)
Wind Visibility Rain Low Temp
High Temp
Wind Chill
Downhill, Slalom, Giant Slalom
> 30 cm Constant above 17 m/s or gusts > 17 m/s
< 20 m on the entire course>
15mm in 6 hours or less
> -25
> 15 cm and < 30 cm
Constant 11 m/s to 17 m/s <
20 m on portions of the course
Mixed precipitation
5 cm2 cm within 6h of an event
Gusts above 14 m/s but < 17 m/s>
>20m but <50m on whole or part of the course
(Courtesy of C. Doyle)
2010 Sports/Weather Threshold matrix;Red text = Critical Decision pointOrange text = Significant decision pointGreen text = Factor to consider
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1 km
Whistler
Production of high-resolution forecast
• 3 self-nested LAM integrations twice daily from 0600 and 1800 UTC GEM Regional forecasts:
• LAM-15km → 2.5km → 1km
GEM LAM
GEM LAM
GEM LAM
GEM LAM
GEM LAM
GEM LAM
06Z 18Z12Z 00Z
15 km – 20 h
2.5 km – 17 h
1.0 km – 15 h
3h
2h
Daily Nesting Strategy
15 km
1.0 km
2.5 km
R1 R2 R1R1 R2
00Z
Vancouver
15 km2.5 km
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• Improved physics:1. geophysical fields (orography, surface roughness,…) using new GenPhysX and
database at 90-m res;2. CCCmarad radiation scheme (solar + infrared); 3. Milbrandt-Yau double-moment bulk microphysics (with a prognostic snow/liquid
ratio for snow density);
• New model diagnostic outputs:– visibility reduction due to hydrometeors (fog, rain, and snow);– cloud base, melting level, snow base;– solid-to-liquid ratio for snow density;– diagnostics of surface wind gusts and wind variances (speed + direction);
• Customized output package: – based on Olympic forecasters feedback (products, display format,…);– comprehensive list of 2D maps, time series at stations, vertical soundings and
cross-sections;– easy display (jpeg images with MetViewer).
New features and products
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List of model outputs (2D maps, time series at stations, vertical soundings and cross-sections):
PLAN MAPS:
• Screen-level potential temperature θ• Screen-level relative humidity (relative to liquid phase)• 10-m winds• Wind gusts (gust estimates, minimum and maximum values)• Standard deviations of 10-m wind speed and direction • Accumulated precipitation types (liquid/freezing/snow/frozen)• Precipitation accumulation (liquid / solid / total)• Precipitation rate (solid / liquid / total)• Snow/liquid ratio {S2L}• Cloud cover (high/ mid/ low + total)• Cloud base height• Visibility (through fog, rain, snow, plus total)• Freezing level (m - 0°C isotherm level)• Snow level (m – lowest level with non-zero snow rate)• Wind chill factor
Customized output package
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Wind forecast at VOH, 1643m, top of 2010 Men’s downhill 15 March 23 UTC to 16 March 14 UTC
15/23Z run
See poster by A. Giguère et al.:
3D-100-A9.3 “In-situ evaluation of the GEM-LAM 1.0km model in preparation for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games”
• Estimated wind gust, • maximum and minimum gust, • surface (10m) wind speed +/- 1 std
dev• surface (10m) wind directn +/- 1 std
dev
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Verifications forVO2010
• Olympic Autostation Network (OAN) consists of:• about 40 standard and special
surface observing sites (hourly or synop available on GTS);
• (relatively) large number of surface stations,
• concentrated in small region;
• Verifications based on a set of 10 cases (winter 2008);• representative of “bad” weather
conditions for the area;
• frontal passages, heavy snow, change of PCP phases, valley clouds, strong wind gusts,…
Temperature (2 m)Wind Speeds (10 m)Average of 10 Cases
Evaluation – Near-surface winds and temperatureEvaluation – Near-surface winds and temperature
kts
kts
C
C
REG-15km2.5 km1 km
RMS
BIAS
Significant improvements at 1 km for winds and temperatures (also 2.5 km) with respect to operational regional REG-15km model
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Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10)
– A World Weather Research Programme Project
by
George A. Isaac 1, S. Bélair 22, A. Bott 3, B. Brown 4, M. Charron2, S. G. Cober1, C. Doyle5, W. F. Dabberdt 6, D. Forsyth,7, G. L. Frederick 6, I. Gultepe 1, P. Joe1,
T. D. Keenan8, J. Koistinen9, J. Mailhot 2, M. Mueller 10, R. Rasmussen 4, R. E. Stewart11, B. J. Snyder 5 and Donghai Wang12
1 Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
2 Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada3 University of Bonn, Germany
4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA5 Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada
6 Vaisala, Louisville, Colorado, USA7 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
8 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia9 Finish Meteorological Institute, Finland
10 University of Basel, Switzerland11 University of Manitoba, Manitoba, Canada
12 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China
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Main Goals of SNOW-V10Related to Nowcasting in Complex Terrain
(Developed at March 08 Workshop)• To improve our understanding and ability to forecast/nowcast
low cloud, and visibility;
• To improve our understanding and ability to forecast precipitation amount and type;
• To improve forecasts of wind speed, gusts and direction;
• To develop better forecast system production system(s).
• Assess and evaluate value to end users;
• To increase the capacity of WMO member states (Training component).
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Builds on Existing EC R&D Projects: High Resolution Modelling, CAN-Now, and FRAM
Canadian Airport Nowcasting Project (CAN-Now)
Fog Remote Sensing And Modeling project (FRAM)
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Harvey’s CloudCurrently have a good array of equipment on Whistler at Creekside at ARQB, VOA, VOL, and TFL with plans for RND. Most of SNOW-V10 data from instruments
are now being displayed on Web site (http://www.snow-v10.ca). Model data is now showing up.
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METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS : VALID AT 2010-02-13 16:00 GMT
PAST NOW NOWCAST
-6h -5h -4h -3h -2h -1h +15 +30 +45 +1h +15 +30 +45 +2h +3h +4h +5h +6h
GMT TIME 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
WIND [m/s] 10 10 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 15 20 22 15 15
GUSTS [m/s] 0 0 5 0 0 0 3 3 3 5 5 15 15 15 10 15 15 10 10
VIS [m] 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+ 100+
SNOW[cm]
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RAIN[mm]
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
T [C] -18 -18 -16 -15 -15 -14 -13 -13 -13 -10 -14 -16 -15 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16
WIND CHILL [C] -20 -20 -20 -18 -18 -18 -15 -15 -15 -12 -15 -20 -20 -20 -20 -25 -25 -20 -20
SNOW V10 Venue Forecast:Whistler Creekside Downhill/Slolam/Giant Slolam
Pig Alley/Mid Station/Timing Flats
Click on box would give reason for alert and indication of confidence (from forecaster or verification scores) in forecast. All boxes would likely contain a range of values or most likely value.
Prototype Product Under Discussion
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VOA Vis
VOL Vis
VOAPrecip
VOL Precip
Graphs show value of 1 min data in complex terrain where conditions change rapidly
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Examples of Products from Whistler C-Band Doppler Radar on March 23rd
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Participating Groups
Observing Systems and Associated Nowcast Systems EC Region OAN Sites EC Research Sites UBC (McKendry) and U. Manitoba (Stewart) NCAR WSDDM System + (Rasmussen) BOM STEPS System (Seed) NSSL Radar (Forseyth) FMI (Koistinen) Modeling Systems EC Research Models WDT (Carpenter) China (Donghai Wang) Austria INCA (Haiden) Germany (Bott) Switzerland (Mueller) NOAA and UK Met OfficeVerification EC Team NCAR (Brown)
“Need for formal participant agreement”
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Products During Olympics
• Each group will produce a Table showing 24 hour forecast of significant variables for main venue sites (hourly intervals and 10 to 15 min intervals in first two hours). Similar to what forecasters produce.
• A Research Support Desk will be run during Olympics and Paralympics (virtual and on-site).
– These products lead to a common verification strategy.
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Summary
• The Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games provides a unique opportunity for international collaboration on the science of winter nowcasting in complex terrain.
• A team of scientists has agreed to participate in the project and the WMO/WWRP has endorsed SNOW-V10 as a project. Representatives from Canada, USA, China, Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Austria, and Australia are so far involved.
• A DRAFT science plan has been developed and can be found on the Web site: http://www.snow-v10.ca/.
• Following a successful Workshop in March/09 in Whistler another is planned for the Fall of 09 in Toronto.
