Wisconsin Credit Union League
January 25, 2011
The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath
John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
In the words of the President… A “shellacking”
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
Seat
Ch
ange
in U
S H
ou
se
Seat
Ch
ange
in S
tate
s
Presidential Party Seat Change, US House and Lower Houses in States
States' lowerhouse
U.S. House
Incumbents in US House
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2006 2008 2010
Dem lost
Dem <55%
Dem >60%
Rep lost
Rep <55%
Rep >60%
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
The biggest seat swing in over 60 years
-50
0
50
100
150
De
mo
cra
tic S
ea
t A
dvan
tag
e
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
*
Congress
Source: Barry Burden, UW-Madison
Why a shellacking?
Bad fundamentals: presidential approval
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Why a shellacking?
Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy
Republican support among
voters who said:
House
2010 Vote R
House
2008 Vote R R Improvement
Nation’s economy in poor condition 71 29 42
Family’s financial situation worse 63 28 35
Very worried about economy 70 37 33
Why a shellacking?
Bad fundamentals: many seats up for grabs
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Why a shellacking?
Bad fundamentals: many recently won seats
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Add the common problems of a party regaining
unified control of government
Add a well-mobilized, motivated grassroots
opposition
Add a stronger, more experienced pool of
Republican candidates
And a shellacking is the result
Why a shellacking?
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Fundamentals at work
Source: Eric McGhee
Democrats lost
vote share in 89
percent of
House districts
Nearly every
demographic
group moved
toward the GOP
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Strongest Republican supporters
The result?
From the most liberal to most conservative
House overnight
Source: Adam Bonica,
ideologicalcartography.com John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
The result?
And the return of divided government…
- Reagan 1981-86 (Rep Senate, Dem House)
- Reagan 1987-88 (Dem Senate, Dem House)
- Bush 1989-92 (Dem Senate, Dem House)
- Clinton 1995-2000 (Rep Senate, Rep House)
- Bush 2001-02 (Dem Senate, Rep House)
- Bush 2007-08 (Dem Senate, Dem House)
- Obama 2011-? (Dem Senate, Rep House)
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
. . . in a time of historically high party conflict
The result?
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011 Source: Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal
The result?
Major accomplishments are possible under these
conditions, but extremely difficult
Parties have different priorities, solutions, and electoral
incentives
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
What about Citizens United?
86.6%
House
Interest
group ads
Candidate
and party
ads
85.5%
Senate
Interest
group ads
Candidate
and party
ads
87.0%
Governor
Interest
group ads
Candidate
and party
ads
The vast majority of ads
were still run by candidates
and parties in 2010.
Source: Wesleyan Media Project
GOP holds its most seats in state legislatures since 1928
GOP gained about 700 seats nationally, most by either
party since 1966
Over 20 state legislative chamber switches to GOP. To
Dems: 0
Republicans control over 55 chambers, their most since
1952
Fifty fewer Democrats ran than in 2008, while 820 more
Republicans ran
The wave in the states: five quick facts
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Republicans in Assembly, Wisconsin
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Republicans in Senate, Wisconsin
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011
Largest postwar gains, Wisconsin legislature
Assembly Senate
Year Party Gain Year Party Gain
1958 Dem 22 1946 Rep 5
1970 Dem 19 1976 Dem 5
1948 Dem 15 1950 Dem 4
2010 Rep 14 1980 Rep 4
1946 Rep 13 2006 Dem 4
1954 Dem 11 2010 Rep 4