John_Smart_Amplify11

Accelerating Change,Our Digital Future, andthe Values of Progress

Amplify 11: Everything Connects6-10 June 2011 Sydney, NSW, Australia

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies FoundationSlides: accelerating.org/slides

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2010 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that

we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of

2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future.

▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-

digital interface.

Accelerating ChangeScience and Technology Grow Faster and Smarter

Every Year, Creating Both Disruption and Opportunity



World Economic Performance

GDP per capita in West Europe,from 1000-1999 A.D.-This curve is smooth and superexponential on a very long time scale.-Note the “knee of the curve” (state switch) occurs in 1850, at the Industrial Revolution.-Next, growth gets so fast it goes vertical “wall of curve” in 1950.-Such supergrowth signals birth of a whole new stable system (geo bio techno)-Each way faster than prior sys.

Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD, Angus Maddison, 2007



Moore’s Law and Mead’s Law, or the Law of Miniaturization Efficiency (LME)

Moore’s Law. In1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) were doubling in complexity every 12-24 months at constant unit cost.

If this continued (and it did) on average, affordable computing capacity (memory, input, output, processing) grows by 1000X (ten doublings: 2,4,8,16,32…. 1024) every 15 years. A recipe for continual emergence!

Mead’s Law. In 1967, Carver Mead discovered a Law of Miniaturization Efficiency. Computer chip efficiencies increase by the cube (power of three) of the reduction in scale. As transistor density goes up linearly in two dimensions, this exponentially increases speed (less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density), decreases power consumption, increases system reliability, and decreases cost per unit. Wow.


Gordon Moore Carver Mead



The J Curve

First-Order Components are growth-limited Hierarchical Substrates (S- or B-Curves)

Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities (marginalinnovations, transformations) and a Limit Singularity(prior to a system transformation)

Examples: ▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)▪ Global Economic Performance▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation

Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.© 2010 Accelerating.org

http://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0703004



Four Alternative Growth Scenarios:Jim Dator’s “Four Futures”

Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press.

Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change

First two are Evolutionary (“Innovation”).Second two are Developmental (“Sustainability”).

Right wingContinuation(Economic Issues)Limits & Discipline(Social Issues)

Left wingContinuation(Social Issues)

Limits & Discipline(Economic Issues)

Up wingTransformation(Selective Issues)

Down wingDecline & Collapse(Selective Issues)




The Developmental Spiral

Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060


Our Digital FutureThe Conversational Interface, the Cybertwin, and

the Valuecosm - How the Web and Individuals Will Both Get Smarter Relative to Corporations and Governments

in Coming Decades, and Why That Matters




The Future of the Web (2007) The Future of Internet TV (2010)

John Smart, 2010 (48 pp)

http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.htmlhttp://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf

Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp)

http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.html



Five Generic Steps in Web Development

Web 1.0 Read Mainly - Graphical UI

Web 2.0 Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI

Web 3.0 3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI

Web 4.0 Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI

Web 5.0 Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain,Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI

We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.

Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar).

Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in.

Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org

Web

Metaverse

Metahumanity

Metaverseroadmap.org


http://www.metaverseroadmap.org/



Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China

From 1996 to 2010, total internet users grew from 36 million to 1.9 billion, or from 1% to 27% of the world.

There were 1 billion PC’s (desktops, laptops, tablets) in use globally in 2008, with a projected doubling to 2 billion by 2015, or a compound AGR of 10% per year.

From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail (B2C) e-commerce, a proxy for the virtual economy, grew from 5 million to $95 billion, with 2009 global compound AGR of 11% per year.

By the end of 2011, 1 billion people, 16% of the world, is projected to be on the web via smartphones, which grow at a compound AGR of 14% per year.

Facebook, the worlds leading social software, has grown to 600 million users (one out of every 11 people on the planet) in 7 years, a marginal AGR of 100% per year.

Key Point: Think of the Virtual (Online, Metaverse) Economy as the future, even more, much more, than “China as the future.”




Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the HorizonOpen Internet TV Will Be The Killer App of Web 3.0




Conversational Interface, Memeshows, Cybertwins, and Valuecosm

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista2005 2.6 words Google2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp2019 10.4 words GoogleBrain

Average spoken human-to-humanquery length is 8-11 words.

Codebreaking follows a logistic curve.

Collective NLP may as well.

Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.



Global Digital Transparency:Result of a Networked Planet

Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and

bandwidth makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into collective intelligence.

Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.

Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam and MyLifeBits (2003) early examples of lifelogs, systems for auto-recording, archiving indexing, and searching all our life experience, as it happens.




Second Life

Virtual Space is Fastspace:Mirror Worlds, Virtual Worlds, AR, Lifelogs

• Rapid, interactive, multi-user• Collaboration environments (user-created content)• Optimization environments (GIS, automation, AI)• More fun than older digital media (games & VWs outsell movies, now and forever).• Still Bandwidth- and CPU- limited (not yet “hyperreal”).

Synthetic Worlds, 2005


Our free report: MetaverseRoadmap.org

The Sims

Google Earth + Street View



First ‘Picturephone’ (AT&T 1970)

‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006)

‘Carpal PC’ concept(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)

Flip Ultra (2007, $130)Top-selling camcorder.

Necklace phone(Nokia 2004)

iPhone (Apple 2007)

Wearable Cellphones, Lifelogs, and AR



LED Screens, Half-Caves, and Game Tables:Telepresence, Gameification, & Serious Games

© 2009 Accelerating.orgDexcom glucose monitor, 2010Milo and Kate, Microsoft 2010

Half-Cave, 2010DriveSharp, 2010



Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/AgentInterface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020?

Ananova, 2000

“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality.

Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.




Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age

A Coevolution Between Saturating Humansand Accelerating Technology.A time when:

▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”

▪ Our technologies become very responsive to our needs and desires.

▪ Humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.

▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”



AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.

In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification




Your Cybertwin (Digital Self):Helping You Now, Helping Others Later

Greg Panos and his Digital MomPersonaFoundation.org

Note the conflict between these two statements:“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”“I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: ▪ When your mother dies in 2040, your digital mom will be “50% her.”▪ When your best friend dies in 2060, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in successive approximation, gentle integration, subtle capturing and transition… of our selves.

When we can shift our conscious perspective between our electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.




Circa 2030: The ValuecosmA More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future

Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s

- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding

Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media




Better Work and Collaboration:Symbiont Networks


When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect…

150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.

A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).

Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.

New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).

Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement.

Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts, Amish symbionts, etc.)

Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press.

http://www.amazon.com/Difference-Diversity-Creates-Schools-Societies/dp/0691138540



Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization:The Emerging Digital Self


Some Challenges - particularly early: Data Security and Privacy Predictive Marketing and Profiling Debt Slavery and Overconsumption New Forms of Crime and Fraud Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community) Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)

Some Opportunities - particularly later: Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your

sentences?) Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks) Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier) Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced) Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’) Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.

The Values of ProgressWhere Do We Want the World to Go, As Leaders?

Where Does the World Want Us to Go?


AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolutionary Values (Local, Bottom-Up)

Competition/Independence/Personal AdvancementInnovation/Creativity/Experimentation/FreedomIndividuality/Diversity/Intuition/Subjective Truth

Adaptability Values (Mix)Positive Sumness/Morality/Democracy/CapitalismResiliency/Immunity/SecurityIntelligence/Awareness/Learning/Adaptive Ability

Developmental Values (Global, Top-Down)Cooperation/Dependence/HarmonySustainability/Convergent Unification/ProtectionUniversality/Generality/Rationality/Objective Truth

The Values of Progress (and Profit) My Personal Take. What’s Yours?

Smart, John. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? In: Cosmos & Culture, Dick and Lupisella (eds) NASA Press.




Competition, Positive Sumness, Intelligence:Value Investing for Profit




Competition:An Evolutionary Value

Problem: Growing Broadband Access Gap (Wired and Wireless), Due to a Lack of Competition (no Meritocracy) in US & Australia, vs. Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Canada, Scandinavia, Germany, even UK! - Monopoly and oligopoly telcos.- Not a national priority for govt leaders.- Policy delay tactics (fiber over wireless,

rural rollout same speed as urban)

Solutions: Govts: Study leader nation’s models. Quantify the loss.Corps: Demand better service. Fund reform politicians.Individuals: Pay more. Work with small ISPs.




Innovation:An Evolutionary Value

Problem: Lack of Innovation in Electric Cars, a massive energy efficiency and grid development opportunity.- Oligopoly automakers have no incentive to innovate until someone takes 3-5% of the market (Innovator’s Dilemma).- Big barriers to entry for small firms- Industry delay tactics (hydrogen over electric, electrics over plug-in hybrids, plug-in’s delayed and crippled vs. potential)

Solutions: Govts: Quantify the loss. Subsidize factories, purchases.Corps: Subsidize purchases, buy fleets from small mfg’s.Individuals: Buy a Prius! Single best envir. decision avail.




Individuality:An Evolutionary Value

Problem: Low Levels of Individual Development in Our Educ. System, a major national loss of creativity, autonomy, productivity, & democracy.- Kids will have 8-10 jobs. Lifelong learners!- No opport. for personal experimentation (Montessori/Waldorf/Steiner style)- Too much testing, too many nat’l standards- Teachers w/ little educ., pay and freedom.- Early tracking, no civics education.- Poor integration of vocational & academic

Solutions: Govts: Copy successful nations (Finland Phenomenon).Corps: More selective hiring. More training and lobbying.Individuals: Use online charter schools & ed. networks.




Positive Sumness:An Evo Devo Value

Problem: Tech Acceleration & Globalization (MNCs) Create Increasing Rich-Poor Divides, and zero-sum or negative sum politics.- Since 1950’s, corps are larger than govts. - Over the last 40 years, top 5% and top 1% have gained major wealth while middle class has lost real wealth in most countries.- Scandinavia, Europe, Canada and Australia have all kept a lid on this, to varying degrees.

Solutions: Govts: Trust busting, redistribution, progressive taxation.Corps: More transparency, lower exec. pay multipliers.Individuals: Buy goods from positive sum countries. (Scandinavia, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.)




Resiliency:An Evo Devo Value

Problem: Disproportionate, Uneconomical , and Non-Rational Responses to Risks/Catastrophes. - 9/11 and America’s ‘War On Terror’. - Big bailouts in Global Financial Crisis.- Ignoring the ideal solutions (efficiency, alternative energy) to Global Warming- Putting personal gain ahead of cost-benefit policy, and using emotions (fear) rather than evidence and proportionality.

Solutions: Govts: Learn from biological immune systems.Corps: Take an evidence-based approach to risk mgmt.Individuals: Learn to save, self-insure, take personal responsibility, fail often, lightly, & learn from failures.




Intelligence:An Evo Devo Value

Problem: Lack of Enough Bottom-Up (Network and Individual) Intelligence vs. Top-Down (Govt and Corporate) Intelligence. - Learned helplessness vs. recognition of accelerating web and personal intelligence. - Giving away our personal freedom and power (growing the ‘Nanny State’). - Brand hypnotism, no accounting for the steep costs of bureaucracy and bigness.

Solutions: Govts: Help power shift from hierarchies to networks.Corps: Lead online, empower networks & customers.Individuals: Be a digital activist. Improve the web, your online networks, and your digital self.




Cooperation:A Developmental Value

Problem: More Global Coop, but Less Ability and Desire to Form Strong, Diverse Communities Around our Unique, Local Values. - Since 1920’s (mass consumption), we went from many unique immigrant subcultures, to one homogenized corporate culture.- Since 1950’s, mass and centralized media, + standardized and weakening education = withdrawal and apathy for local community,

Solutions: Govts: Build local & state govts. Take power from feds.Corps: Work with, help your local govts and communities.Individuals: Use iTV, Facebook, Foursquare, Yelp. Local Mkts, Foods, Products, and Services. e-Voting!




Sustainability:A Developmental Value

Problem: Global CO2 Increase, and Lack of Sufficient Growth in Sustainable Energy Solutions. - A trillion barrels of oil in the ground. Those who own it want to make $100 trillion.- No political or big corp support for energy sols. Must come from small co’s and public.

Solutions: Govts: Efficiency is 90% of near term.

German solar power sys (10%). Offshore floating wind (20%).Thorium mini-nuke plants (20%).

Corps: Start efficiency initiatives, work w/ efficiency co’s.Individuals: Plant and keep alive 1-5 trees a year. Drip irrigation. Invest in efficiency co’s. Solar thermal & PV.



Universality:A Developmental Value

We’re all heading toward Sweden, on our own unique paths (see WorldValuesSurvey.org)

Problem: We Don’t Notice the Development Going On All Around Us. - Accelerating S&T.- Econ development.- Political development.- Social development.- Human development.

Solutions: More STEM Educ.Tech Capacity focusMore Dev. StudiesWake up!



Australia and AMP: An Outsider’s Perspective on Key Values

Competition Build more meritocracy, not just bureaucracy. Comp. Intell.: Scour the world for solutions.

InnovationBe digital innovators. Grow network and node(indiv.) intelligence vs. pyramids (corps & govts).

IndividualityChoose your own way. Don’t follow America. Be unique and diverse, whenever it makes sense.

Positive SumnessResiliencyIntelligence CooperationSustainabilityUniversality

See and use developmental stages. Example:Earning > Saving > Investing > Retiring > Philanthropy

I leave you to fill these out

for yourself!

DiscussionWhat do you think?

Date post:	09-May-2015
Category:	Business
Upload:	amplifyfest
View:	830 times
Download:	0 times

John_Smart_Amplify11

Business