Joint Regional OSSE at ESRL/GSD

Joint Regional OSSE at ESRL/GSDYuanfu Xie and Zoltan TothNOAA/ESRL/GSD/FAB

Contributors: Nikki Prive, Scott Markaroand Yu Zhang

OutlineReview of GSD regional OSSE work;Global OSSE connection;Building a NOAA OSSE testbed;Regional OSSE plan and work.Joint Regional Quick Hurricane OSSE with AOMLA nature run has been generated with 2km resolution forced by analysis boundary conditions (with Scott Markaro and Nikki Prive);Some evaluation of the NR has been performed by AOML;The NR reflects some realism of Hurricane Ike, intensity and track;It is ready for use;Configuration of NR: WRF-ARWInitialized06 UTC 2 September 2008 for 3 day runInitial conditionsGFS 0.5ox0.5o analysisLateral BoundariesGFS 0.5ox0.5o forecastGrid resolution0.018o (approx 2km), 51 vert. levelsParameterizations:Boundary LayerYonsei UniveristyCumulus SchemeNoneMicrophysicsThompson et. Al.RadiationRRTMRegional Nature Run Using Analysis as Boundary Conditions for Hurricane Ike

Regional Nature Run Using Analysis as Boundary Conditions for Hurricane Ike

Realistic Track and Intensity

IntensityTrackRealistic Intensity

Axisymmetric tangential wind (color, m/s) and radial winds (outward solid contours, inward dotted contours, contour interval 2.5 m/s) valid:12 UTC 5 September, 2008UAS LALE flight design

* Flight path of Low-Altitude, Long-Endurance (LALE) UAS at 1 km altitude into Ike. Wind speed, m/s, in color.

Our plan is to use differentDA scheme to initialize theHWRF model for evaluatingThe UAS impact on hurricaneintensityGlobal OSSE ConnectionAOML under the leadership of Dr. Atlas is working on a more sophisticated regional OSSE for hurricanes collaborating with GSD and University of Miami;GSD/FAB is also considering alternative NR for regional OSSE applications, HMT, renewable energy;Global OSSE is critical for a regional OSSE for providing boundary conditions, which is usually a main problem for regional one;GSD has a global OSSE system and is working with AOML and UM for conducting the rigorous regional OSSE.

Joint Global OSSE Connecting a Regional OSSEECMWF 13 month (May 1, 2005 June 1m 2006) forecast is used as NR at T511 with 91 levels;

Validation has been performed by NCEP, NASA, and GSD;

Full set of synthetic observations has been generated, including RAOB, ACAR, AIRS, AMSU, GOES, and so on;

Assimilation systems: NCEP GSI and GFS;

GSD has spent 3.5 years calibrating this OSSE system for the 5 major observation systems;

Synthetic data of UAS and WISDOM has generated and used in a UAS OSSE and a WISDOM OSSE, a UAS OSSE report has been submitted to NOAA/UAS.

Aug 1 12Z - Aug 7 00ZSynthetic UAS data12All of the dropsondes released from 1 Aug 12Z to 7 Aug 00Z. Blue stars indicate best track of the NR storm AL01/

13Forecast track impacts for the 5 Aug 12Z forecast. Blue: Nature Run best track from 5 Aug 12Z to 10 Aug 12 Z. Green: control forecast without UAS. Red: including UAS observations.

In the GFS forecasts, the recurving storm moves slightly too quickly poleward during the first three days of the forecast. A midlatitude wave passing to the north interacts with the hurricane,Resulting in rapid (and erroneous) movement to the northeast. Inclusion of of the UAS observations results in a slowing of the poleward movement of the storm during the early forecast period,But the hurricane is still swept off by the passing wave later in the forecast.Synthetic WISDOM dataTwice a day: 1th/Aug ~ 5th/Aug

Get the WISDOM data: Every 30 minutes

Two levelsDrift height:3650m/8000mBalloon numbers: 5*2*2*111=2220 Total data : 427,128

twenty two hundred balloons. four hundred data be collected.14

WISDOM OSSE numerical resultsBalloon location and forecast track for the 6 Aug 00ZThe number of balloon data: 21312

figThe result is not significant. worsen at the first time. get better at last.The trajectory pattern is similar. 15NOAA OSSE Testbed (Regional)NOAA regional OSSE testbed should be able

to use different global OSSEs for boundary conditions GSD has a calibrated one;to have a common synthetic data generatorGSD has UAS and WISDOM generators and share a package with NCEP for insitu and satellite observations;to allow user choose different data assimilation techniques and forecast modelsGSD has some DA options, LAPS , STMAS and GSI;to build a set of calibrated observation errorsGSD uses an error adding code from NASA/GMAO;to develop targeting observation schemesGSD is working with NCEP/EMC for adapting WSR targeting software to the global OSSE system

Such flexible testbed could support various regional OSSE applications.GSD Regional Applications and Future workHMT:Identify observation need and distribution for improving QPF;Renewable Energy:Provide guidance on future observation systems improving wind and solar prediction;Hurricane:Collaborate with AOML and UM for conducting a regional hurricane OSSE for intensity;