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Indicadores para el análisis de la bioeconomía en la UE

JORNADA: BIOECONOMÍA Y AGRICULTURA

Madrid, 29 March 2017

R. M'barek, P. Gurria, T. RonzonEconomics of Agriculture unit

Directorate Sustainable ResourcesJRC-Seville

Outline of presentation

Introduction (JRC, Bioeconomy strategy)

Bioeconomy Observatory/Knowledge Centre & Biomass study

Bioeconomic indicators EU/Spain

Forward-looking analysis (model-based)

The JRC inside the European Commission

President Jean-Claude Juncker 28 Commission Members

Director-General Vladimir ŠuchaJoint Research Centre

7 JRC Institutes

Commissioner Tibor NavracsicsEducation, Culture, Youth and Sport

The European Commission’s

in-house science service

www.ec.europa.eu/jrc

"As the science and knowledge service of the Commission our mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle."

The Joint Research Centre at a glance

3000 staffAlmost 75% are scientists and researchers.Headquarters in Brussels and research facilitieslocated in 5 Member States.

Bioeconomy “encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value-added products, such as food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy"

www.ec.europa.eu/research/bioeconomy

• BISO Website (statistics, reports, factsheet and news publications)

• Data collection at geographical level

• Environmental sustainability factsheets

• Study of the EU bio-based industry

• Visualisation of the bioeconomy• Inclusive biomass estimates • Macroeconomic modelling of the

bioeconomy

EU Bioeconomy Observatory

https://biobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Will replace Observatory in 2017

Exchange and

structure

knowledge supply

and demand

Community of

Practice

Output and

communications

Dashboards,

reports, briefings

and visualisations

Locate, collate

and (where IPR

allows) store

relevant

documents

Library

Metadata

describing and

links to datasets

held across the KC

partnership

Data Catalogue

EU Bioeconomy Knowledge Centre

Contact: Michael.Klinkenberg@ec.europa.eu

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

• High-level Mandate to JRC on global and EU biomass supply and

demand on a long term basis

• Assessment of EU and global biomass supply, demand, flows and

sustainability (incl. gaps and uncertainties)

• Covering all sources of biomass and all uses

• Addressing impacts linked with production and use of biomass,

competition and synergies between sectors for biomass resources

• Develop scenarios and projections for biomass supply and demand

and their respective impacts

Biomass study at JRC

https://biobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/biomass-assessment-study-jrc

Contact: Andrea.Camia@ec.europa.eu

9

Database, DataM – Bioeconomics, online at

http://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/public/pages/datasets.xhtml

with dynamic visualisations at

http://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/mashup/BIOECONOMICS/index.html

Preliminary analysis soon published at

Ronzon T, et al. (forthcoming in April 2017) A systematic approach to understand and quantify the EU Bioeconomy. Bio-based and Applied Economics 6(1): 1-17, 2017 http://www.fupress.net/index.php/bae

Ronzon T, et al. (forthcoming 1st half 2017) . Bioeconomy Report 2016. JRC Scientific and Policy Report. EUR XXX

Note: all following graphs (but one) are available in the dynamic visualisations.

Data/indicators on the Bioeconomy

on EU and Member State level

EU28 SPAIN

Number of people employed

18.59M 1.34M

Turnover (Billion €)

€2,228 €191

Bioeconomy: EU & Spain (2014)

Turnover per person employed

EU28

SPAIN

Bioeconomy: People employed (2014)

People employed

(EU28)Sector

People employed (Spain)

51% Agriculture 50%

2%Bio-based chemicals, pharmaceuticals and

plastics (excl. biofuels)2%

0% Bio-based electricity 0%

5% Bio-based textiles 5%

0% Biofuels 0%

1% Fisheries 4%

24% Food, beverage and tobacco industry 26%

3% Forestry 2%

3% Manufacture of paper and paper products 3%

9% Wood products and furniture 7%

100% Total 100%

EU28

SPAIN

Turnover (EU28)

SectorTurnover (Spain)

17% Agriculture 21%

6%Bio-based chemicals, pharmaceuticals and plastics

(excl. biofuels)5%

0% Bio-based electricity 1%

5% Bio-based textiles 4%

1% Biofuels 1%

0% Fisheries 1%

51% Food, beverage and tobacco industry 55%

2% Forestry 0%

8% Manufacture of paper and paper products 6%

8% Wood products and furniture 5%

100% Total 100%

Bioeconomy: Turnover (2014)

Turnover: EU (2008-2014)

Economic crisisBack to 2008 levels

Turnover: Spain (2008-2014)

Economic crisisNot back to 2008 levels yet

People employed per million of turnover: Spain 2014

Aquaculture Capture fisheries

Turnover per person employed: Spain 2014

Location quotients for the fisheries sector: Spain 2014

Number of people employed Turnover

Diversity of EU's Bioeconomy (2014)

Note: the size of the bubbles is proportional to the value added per capitaSource: forthcoming in Ronzon et al, Bio-based and Applied Economics, 2017

SPAIN

Value added(Eurostat vs. ES statistics)

Note: Same year as in the Spanish Bioeconomy strategy (from 2011 to 2013 depending on the sector)

23,306

976

1,334

19,551

2,1192,622 3,265

1,854333 764

21,707

762 1,047

28,448

1,867

3,307

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Million e

uro

s

Spain (Eurostat) Spain - BE strategy

SPAIN

People employed(Eurostat vs. ES statistics)

677,600

24,60053,035

356,206

70,078 79,88641,416 28,994

3,781 1,199

740,000

64,675

480,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Num

ber

of

people

em

plo

yed

Spain (Eurostat) Spain - BE strategy

Note: Same year as in the Spanish Bioeconomy strategy (from 2011 to 2013 depending on the sector)

Data on the Bioeconomy

The indicators at stake

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

million e

uro

s

Turnover Value added

SPAIN

22

Hybrid bioeconomy sectors are reported in Eurostat

� DataM – Bioeconomics = pilot database on turnover & employment in BE

Following an ad' hoc methodology of the quantification of hybrid sectors

! Assumption:

% bb content in ∑ products from 1 sector = % bb turnover from this sector

= % bb employment from this sector

For more details, check:

Database, DataM – Bioeconomics, online at

http://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/public/pages/datasets.xhtml

with dynamic visualisations at

http://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/mashup/BIOECONOMICS/index.html

Preliminary analysis soon published at

Ronzon T, et al. (forthcoming) A systematic approach to understand and quantify the EU Bioeconomy. Bio-based and Applied Economics 6(1): 1-17, 2017

Ronzon T, et al. (forthcoming) . Bioeconomy Report 2016. JRC Scientific and Policy Report. EUR XXX

Data on the Bioeconomy

The case of hybrid sectors

Survey on bio-based

chemicals & composites

• 130-150 EU companies (distributed similarly to the main chemical industry focus points in Europe)

• Main products are organic acids, polymers and surfactants

• Promising products for 2020 havebeen identified in severalcategories.

• Biomass feedstock is mainly first generation and sourced within the EU.

• http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC100357/jrc100357.pdf

Description of bio-based sectors on MS level through multiplier

analysis

Objectives• Growth & employment of sectors• Comparing in MS, among MS• Test case for methodology

Approach• Social Accounting Matrices (2007)• Not yet with hybrid sectors

Outcome• Published 2014/15 (JRC, Spanish journal• JRC report http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC90698

• SJAR http://revistas.inia.es/index.php/sjar/article/view/6192

• Update will come during 2017

Bioeconomy linkages

A sector is linked to other sectors by its purchasers and sales. The relative strength of the link measured by Backward Linkage (BL) and Forward Linkage (FL) multipliers

Biobased uses industrial inputs like fertilizers, pesticides, machinery, energy etc. (BL)

Biobased supplies raw materials to downstream processors and suppliers (FL)

BL: if >1 then intermediate input demand by sector x generates a higher than average wealth compared with other sectors in the economyFL: if >1 then output by sector x generates a higher than average wealth compared with other sectors in the economy

How to structurally classify biobased sectors?

Examples: Europe's (potential) key sectors in BBE

Source: Structural patterns of the Bioeconomy, EC JRC, Philippidis et al. 2014

Source: Structural patterns of the Bioeconomy, EC JRC, Philippidis et al. 2014

Examples: Europe's (potential) key sectors in BBE

Example: Europe's job potential in the BBE

Employment generation (number of new jobs per million euros of additional output value) for EU Member States

Source: Structural patterns of the Bioeconomy, EC JRC, Philippidis et al. 2014

29

BioEconomy2030Perspectives & drivers of the bioeconomy

Scenarios

Reference (RS)

New trade agreements

Cuts in PAC budget

RED targets

BAU GHG emissions

Inward-looking (IL)

EU focuses on existing fossil

fuel technologies

Neighbourhood and regional trade alliances

Mainly market orientated policy approach to agriculture

Outward-looking (OL)

EU leads reduction of GHG emissions

Energy policy orientated toward bio-based solutions

Global trade deal

'Greener' vision for the CAP

Model inputs

Macroeconomy

GDP, oil price…

Policy orientations

Trade, CAP, Bioenergy (biofuel mandate),

Environmental (GHG)

Model ouputs

Economy

GDP, income,Trade blce & comp.

Jobs# jobs, wages

Land% land for biofuels

EnvironmentCO2/km2

Energy% biofuel in ener. production

Food

Production, Consumer price, hhexpenditures, cal. Intake, self-suff.

Published in 2016

30

BioEconomy2030

Bio-based sectors

BioEconomy2030

Publications

http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/806

https://biobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/generated/files/documents/drivers-of-the-eu-bioeconomy-in-transition.pdf

Joint Research Centre

the European Commission's in-house science service

Serving society

Stimulating innovation

Supporting legislation

Contact: Robert.M'barek@ec.europa.eu

Tevecia.Ronzon@ec.europa.eu