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Estonian Forest and Wood Industries Association’s Conference
–Sustainable future is made of wood
Tallinn, 6 June 2018:
Emerging wood-based products: potential and limitations
Ragnar Jonsson
Bioeconomy Unit (D.1)
JRC biomass assessment study
Assessment of current situationScenarios for biomass supply and
demand (2020-2030-2050)
Covering all sources and uses
Addressing impacts linked with
provision and use of biomass,
competition and synergies
between sectors for biomass
resources
One outcome of the 2012 EU bioeconomy strategy
JRC tasked with providing policy DGs with analysis as to biomass supply and demand – at
EU as well as global level - on a long-term basis
https://biobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/files/Biomass-study-JRC-leaflet.pdf
As part of the biomass assessment study, JRC is also assessing so-
called emerging / new wood-based products
❑ Short to medium time frame (until ~2030)
❑ Work conducted in cooperation with the European Forest
Institute (EFI)
No universal understanding,
but:
❑ Usually refers to products in the introduction or growth
phases of the product life cycle; novel products and/or
products based on new technologies / conversion pathways
❑ However, at times the concept also includes products with
resurging demand
What are “emerging / new wood-based products”?
Life cycle phases of some wood-based products
Phases Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Renewal
Examples
❑ Bio-chemicals;
❑ 2nd generation
biofuels
❑ Engineered
wood products
(EWP): CLT, LVL
❑ Sawnwood
❑ Wood-based
panels
❑ Newsprint;
❑ printing &
writing paper
❑ dissolving pulp
(for viscose)
Market
characteristics
• Technical and
economic
(entry)
barriers;
• Uncertainty
• Growth by
gaining market
shares
• Largely
independent of
GDP
development
• Stable / modest
growth
• Business cycle
dependency
• Decline due to
substitution by
superior
products:
electronic ICT
• Rebound in
demand due
to new drivers:
cotton prod.↓
Possible end uses of emerging/new wood-based products
Based on Cowie et al. (2014); Pöyry (2016)
Criteria Description
Volume Focus products having the largest potential in terms of revenue,
and those that imply significant wood use - niche markets excluded
Technological Readiness
Level ≥ 6,
(Time-to-Market < 5
years)
A product needs to be at least in pilot scale
Cost competitiveness vs. petrochemicals; vs. agricultural feedstock-based chemicals; vs. 1st generation
biofuels.
Compatibility with
existing industry
what can realistically be produced in conjunction with sawmilling and pulp & paper
production?
Sustainability New products should do better - at a minimum not worse - than existing products given
key indicators:
- Recyclability and resource efficiency
- Carbon balance
- Other / market specific: water footprint, toxic load, etc.
MARKETS PRODUCTS
Construction - CLT (cross-laminated timber);
- LVL (laminated veneer lumber)
- GLULAM: saturated market compared to CLT and LVL
Textiles
- IONCELL-F: dissolving pulp-based, non-hazardous solvent + better tensile strength and water
absorption capacity properties than viscose (rayon);
- Spinnova: spins fibre yarn directly from pulp mass
- Viscose: toxicity of solvent (carbon disulfide)
2nd generation biofuels
- biodiesel based on crude tall oil (CTO)
- ethanol based on sawdust
- FT-diesel: not cost competitive: 3–5 times more expensive than fossil-based diesel
- Methanol/DME: not cost competitive, competing with natural gas
Bio-chemicals
(platform chemicals)
- lactic acid (PLA)
- furfural
- 1,4-butanediol (BDO)
- succinic acid
- Isoprene: TRL 5
- itaconic acid: TRL 8-9, but small volume
Plastics and packaging- Wood-plastic composites (for outdoor decking, automotive interiors, etc.)
- Pulp-based, plastic-resembling films (for flexible packaging; plastic bags, etc.): e.g., PAPTIC
- Other, plastic resembling materials (for rigid packaging for food and other packaging): e.g.,
SULAPAC
EWP and prefabrication => wood construction competitive in large-
scale construction projects.
EWP expected to grow at an annual rate of around 25% (in monetary
terms) until 2022 (http://www.gtf-info.com/news/allied-market-
research-predicts-sharp-growth-engineered-wood-market/)
Drivers:
o policy (building regulations, measures to encourage
sustainable construction practices),
Barriers:
o risk-averse nature of the construction sector: perceptions of
key decision makers (main contractors and developers)
Construction
Textiles (1)
Global market: synthetic fibers (mainly polyester) 69%, cotton 23%,
MMCF 7% (of which viscose 96% )
Drivers:
o overall growth of global textiles market: from 91Mt in 2015 to
130 Mt in 2030
o “cellulose gap”: stagnating cotton production due to scarcity of
arable land and water, resources increasingly needed for food
production
Barriers:
o Technical attributes
Textiles (2)
Biochemicals (1)
Chemicals and biofuels conversion pathways
Biochemicals (2)
Biochemicals
Bio-based chemical market expected to grow 5% annually
Drivers:
o Market pull: leading consumer brands such as Coca Cola, P&G, IKEA,
and LEGO, have all set targets on replacing fossil-based chemicals
(polymers) with more sustainable alternatives
o Co-production with biofuels
Barriers:
o Low-cost natural gas: biochemicals at an economic disadvantage
relative to chemicals produced from natural gas
o Lignocellulose requires additional steps in the conversion process =>
cost disadvantage compared to agricultural feedstocks
o Competing innovations, e.g., CO2 Capture & Conversion for chemicals
2nd generation biofuels
Shift of focus to fuels used in heavy duty long distance road transport,
maritime transport, and aviation
Drivers:
o Policy, in particular EU revision of the RED and the Fuel Quality Directive;
transition 1st gen. - > 2nd gen. biofuels and other renewables options
Barriers:
o Low oil price, 2nd gen. biofuels not (yet) cost competitive with fossil fuels
o Uncertainty: post-2020 political landscape for biofuels still unclear
o Competition with other uses. E.g., CTO already used for producing a
number of chemicals (detergents, asphalt emulsifiers, oil field emulsifiers,
rubber emulsifiers, adhesives, lubricants, etc.)
o By-product from pulp production => supply contingent upon the demand
for paper
Plastics and packaging (1)
Plastics and packaging conversion pathways
Plastics and packaging (2)
WPC: EU production (in 2012) 260,000 tons, expected to grow 10% / year:
Decking 174,000 (67%), Automotive (car interior parts) 60,000 (23%), Siding
and Fencing 16,000 (6%)
source: https://compositesuk.co.uk/system/files/documents/WPC-NFC-Market-
Study-Short-Verson%202015.pdf)
Drivers:
o Market pull: industries looking for sustainable materials (recycled
plastics and wood industry residues; biodegradable) with enhanced
properties compared to wood: molded to virtually any shape, rot
resistant
o Policies to restrict the use of plastic
Barriers:
o Technical issues: e.g., low thermal stability, UV degradation, higher fire
hazard than wood alone
Value added depends on the position in the value chains
Value chains and the relative value created vis-à-vis the rawmaterial. The expected position of forest
industries indicated in grey.
1
1
x26
x20 x681
x17–5063x7–93
x28–43
1
1
Pulpwood suppliers
Sawlogs suppliers
Pulpwood suppliers
Pulpwood suppliers
Pulpwood suppliers
Dissolving pulp
producer
Primary wood
products
producer
Intermediate platform
producer (sugars,
pyrolysis oil, syngas)
Building block
producer
Resin producer
MMCF
producer
Secondary wood
products
producer
Biofuel convertor
(distillation,
fermentation, etc.)
Secondary
chemical
producer
Intermediate
producerEnd products
Conversion Packers
Prefabricated
buildings: (main)
contractor
Developer
Yarn
producer
Textile
producer
Garment
producer
1
x50 x76 x346 x1124
x7 x19 x42 x56
x40–155
Joint Research Centrethe European Commission's in-house science service
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation
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