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JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING
JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING
Course of Action Analysis
Course of Action Analysis
PurposePurpose
Define course of action analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process
Discuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA
analysis Provide lessons learned from previous
exercises and operations
ReferencesReferences
AFSC Pub 1, The Joint Staff Officer’s Guide,1997
JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, Feb 95
JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 99
JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and Procedures), Annex P, Aug 93
CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97
Crisis Action Planning Process
Crisis Action Planning Process
CRISIS
ISituation
Development
IICrisis
Assessment
IVCourse of
ActionSelection
VExecutionPlanning
AND/OR
IIICourse of
ActionDevelopment
IMission Analysis/Restated Mission
IVComparison of OwnCourses of Action
IIIAnalysis of Opposing
Courses of Action
VCommander’s
Decision
IICourse of Action
Development
Commander’s Estimate Process
OPORD
Deployment Data Base
VIExecution
PlanningOrder
AlertOrder
WarningOrder
ExecuteOrder
Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis
The purpose of course of action analysis is to “evaluate
each proposed friendly COA as though opposed by
each enemy capability. This series of wargaming
exercises illustrates that the commander considered
the most significant and influential confrontations.”
AFSC Pub 1, 6-38
Determine the probable effect of most likely enemy COA on the success of each friendly XO
Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion– By time phasing– Geographic location– Functional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons
down
Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs
Consider conflict termination issues; think through own action, enemy reaction, counteraction
Conclude with: – Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility– Determine additional requirements– Make modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COA
Analysis of Opposing COAs (Cont)
Analysis of Opposing COAs (Cont)
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points
WargamingWargamingMethodMethod
RecordingRecordingMethodMethod
Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess
RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
Task StepsTask StepsGather theTools List
Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
WargamingMethod
RecordingMethod
Wargame & Assess
RiskAssessment
RevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
Gather the ToolsGather the Tools
Friendly COAsEnemy COAsJoint operations area (JOA) depictionRepresentation of friendly and enemy force
distributionRepresentation of environmental/civil conditionsSynchronization MatrixAction-Reaction-Counteraction matrixIdentify and review existing limitations
Task StepsTask StepsGather theTools List
Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
WargamingMethod
RecordingMethod
Wargame & Assess
RiskAssessment
RevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
List AssumptionsList Assumptions
List the assumptions delivered during
mission analysisValidity:
– Is the assumption necessary?– Will the result change without the assumption?
Logical, realistic, stated positively
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
WargamingWargamingMethodMethod
RecordingRecordingMethodMethod
Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess
RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
List Known Critical Events and Decision Points
Critical events are essential tasks
that require detailed analysis
Decision points identify decisions the
commander must make to ensure timely
execution and synchronization
Time available for analysis affects
length of the critical events list
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points
WargamingMethod
RecordingRecordingMethodMethod
Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess
RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
Select Method of Wargame for Analysis
Select Method of Wargame for Analysis
Computer Assisted– Integrated theater management model– Tactical warfare model– Joint conflict model
Manual– Deliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasing– Critical events
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points
WargamingWargamingMethodMethod
RecordingMethod
Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess
RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
Select Technique to Record and Display Wargaming
Techniques– Narrative technique
– Sketch and note technique
– Wargame matrix
Considerations– Assets available
– Time available
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points
WargamingWargamingMethodMethod
RecordingRecordingMethodMethod
Wargame & Assess
RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
Wargame the Operation and Assess Results
Wargame the Operation and Assess Results
Visualize the flow of operations
Assess the JTF performance two echelons down
“Action-Reaction-Counteraction”
Synchronization MatrixTIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT
ENEMY ACTION
DECISION POINTS
CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER
OPN FIREPOWER
OPN PROTECTION
OPN INFORMATION
OPN INTEL
OPN SUPPORT
ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT
MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT
NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC
AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC
JSOTF
OTHERS
FUNCTION
JOINT
AREAS
COMPONENTS
D-DAY/H-HOUR
D + 1 D + 2
Simplified Sync MatrixACTOR
JTF
ARFOR
NAVFOR
AFFOR
MARFOR
JSOTF
JPOTF
EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENTCOMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT
Sample Wargame Worksheet
SEQ-UENCENUMBER
ACTION RE-ACTION
COUNTER-ACTION
ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT
CCIR REMARKS
CRITICAL EVENT:
Action/Reaction/Counteraction
ACTION REACTION COUNTERACTION
C141 landingCity X
Riot
SAM hit inbound
DOS and JTF LNO w/ localpoliceEvac late night Local securityDeceptionPSYOPSEvac late nightECM if not optical trackGround SAR from embassyAbort liftDOS appeal to X Govt formilitary securityEvac by helo, ground
Advantages & Disadvantages
Advantages Disadvantages
COA 1
Single lift in threatened cities
Almost no footprint
Duration of Ops
Weather restriction
Security is HN Force
Ability to pick up outlying areas
Advantages & Disadvantages
Advantages Disadvantages
COA 1
Single lift in threatened cities
Almost no footprint
Duration of Ops
Modifications 1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport2. Branch: ARFOR QRF to threatened areas3. JSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees
Weather restriction
Security is HN Force
Ability to pick up outlying areas
Results of WargamingResults of Wargaming
Identification of advantages and disadvantages of
each friendly COA
Identification of additional assets required (if any)
Refinements or modifications to the COA
Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each
geographic location or functional event
Adjustments to any established control measures
Wargaming Results (Cont)
Wargaming Results (Cont)
TPFDD requirements
Synchronization requirements
Estimate of the duration of critical events as
well as the operation as a whole
Required support from outside of the JTF
Requirements for logistic support
Clear picture of command relationships
branches and sequels
Wargaming Results (Cont)
Wargaming Results (Cont)
Critical information required to support decision points
Additional commander’s decision points
Measures of effectiveness for each phase
Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance
Identification of component tasks
Task Organization requirements
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points
WargamingWargamingMethodMethod
RecordingRecordingMethodMethod
Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess
RiskAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis
Conduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk Assessment
Identify risks
Assess risks
Analyze acceptability of risk
Identify ways and means of risk mitigation
Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList
AssumptionsAssumptions
Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points
WargamingWargamingMethodMethod
RecordingRecordingMethodMethod
Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess
RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment
Course of Action Analysis Revalidate
RevalidateRevalidate
Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the
mission when carried out successfully, In other
words, is it aimed at the right objectives?
Feasible: Do we have the required resources and
can those resources be made available in time?
Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish
the mission and we have the required resources, is it
worth the cost in term of possible losses (military,
time, political, etc.)?
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first, or this will take forever.
Wargame the endstate and transition. Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged
down. First cut thoughts only. The purpose of wargaming is to identify
advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions.
During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?