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Jonathan Day, Gregory Ross, and
Roxanne Connelly
University of Florida
Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory
Vero Beach, Florida
A GIS Model of Arboviral Risk Assessment in
Florida
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
No.
WN
V C
ases
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49Week of Year
Human Case EpicurveColorado, 2003
Factors that Drive Vector-borne Disease Epidemics
Pathogen
VectorAmplification Host
Environmental Factors
Culex nigripalpus: An Important Arboviral Vector in Florida
Water Table 1.3 meters below surface
Water Table 0.8 meters below surface
Low areas (ditched, furrows, sinkholes) during periods of drought
Water Table 1.6 meters below surface
Culex nigripalpus ovisposition sites during periods of wetting
Water Table 1.0 meters below surface
Gregg Ross, FMEL
Jeffrey Shaman, Oregon State
University
589 MWTDdata recording stationsacross peninsularFlorida
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
Date
Mod
elle
d W
ater
Tab
le D
ata
19861987198819891990
Figure 3
Modeled Water Table Depth
589Data Points
1 2 3
MWTD values RISK MapsMWTD Maps
GIS RISK Maps3
MWTD values RISK valuesRISK model comparison
Arboviral transmission risk for May 2005
Pinellas County Florida: 2005 Case Study
Onset Dates: 1 June to 22 August, with 15 reported during July, 2005
Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory
MWTD Data for the Pinellas County, FL WNV outbreak of 2005
MWTD recording sites MWTD data for Pinellas County, 2005
2003 2004 2005 2006
Week Number
Mod
eled
Wat
er T
able
Dep
th
Hum
ans
Cx. n
igSe
ntine
ls