Jonathan Granoff Peace Nobel Price Winner
We are the first Generation todeterminate by our ethical decicions whether to be the last generationat the same time
• Lost Balance • Reasons/Megatrends/Perspectives • Theoretical Chance• Scenarios of the Future• Global Marshall Plan Initiative• What can you do?
Bayer Young Environmental Envoy 2005
30.000 Humans die on starvation, daily1,5 Billion Humans live with less then 1,0 US$ per day2,8 Billion Humans live with less then 2,0 US$ per day EU-Cow gets subsidies of 2,8 US$ per day
548.000 Billion US$ Finance-Transaktions/Year 31.500 Billion US$ World-GDP /Year 956 Billion US$ Military-Expenses/Year 300 Billion US$ Increase of Wealth of the 600 richest/Year 116 Billion US$ Interest-Payments from South to North/Year 78 Billion US$ Development-Aid from North to South/Year 60 Billion US$ Fiscal Evasion by Off-Shore-Places/Year 25 Billion US$ Profit of Exxon in 2004
Lost Balance
Income in US$/Year
One of the worldwide Poorest 37A Poor in the „Third“ World 150An Unemployement Benefit in Germany 5.000An Avarage Income in Germany 20.000A Senior Civil Servant in Germany 80.000The Highest Ranking Politician in Germany 250.000A Top-Manager in Germany up to 20.000.000A Top-Investmentbanker worldwide up to 600.000.000The third-richest Person in 2004 18.800.000.000
Lost Balance
Anzahl Personen Anteil Vermögens-an Bev. zuwachs in % in Mrd. US$ /Jahr
1 19 587 400
8.300.000 0,1 2.330 + 8,3%1.192.000.000 17,9 - 1.485 - 7,7%5.475.000.000 82,0 100
6.675.000.000 100,0 945 + 3,0%
Lost Balance
Years Faktor Gates-Wealth(growth powerd by Years) in Billion US$
42 2 1,60 (1,266 to second power) 67 10 10,57 444 14 27,16 1.141 20 111,86 4.700 29 934,50 39.250
Wealth of the 587 Hyper-Rich
in Billion US$12 16,94 32.200
World GDP in 2004 31.500 Billion US$
1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45 Years
MegatrendsMegatrends
2 Billion.1927
6,3 Billion today .9 – 10 Billion2050.
10.000 generations one human life-time
1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45 Years 2. New World-Market Economy
• 1980 Reagan / Thatcher• Washington Consensus IMF, Worldbank• 5 Billions Humans more in World-Market Economy
3. Revolution in Communication-Technology4. Revolution in Transport-Technology
MegatrendsMegatrends
Post-War Situation until the 70th
The State is dominant, but business is happy
Globalization has caused …
… the (international) private sector to dominate over the state and public sector.
Tax competition leading to a systematic decrease of corporate tax rates. (OECD figures from: KPMG, 2004, 2)
Corporate Tax Rates in OECD / EU-Countries
Privatization has been predominantly a phenomenon affecting the low income countries.
(Source:Sheshinski/López-Calva, 1999; estimations based on the World Development Indicators)
Public enterprises‘ activity as a percentage of GDP
Private Phones Costlier
Uruguay’s cellular customers benefited from worldwide price reductions, while Argentineans did not. The graph shows the differentiated development.
(Data from ITU, 2003)
Only 1% of all new chemical entities are used for therapeutic innovations on tropical diseases.
(Data from Trouiller et al, 2002, 1188-90)
Underinvestment in Tropical Diseases
Neem Tree Seeds
… in front of the European Patent Office (EPO), Munich Used for centuries in India for pest control and cosmetics, a fungicide made from Neem treeseeds was patented in 1992 by an US-corporation but later revoked.(Source:Petra C. Fleisser)
Protest against Neem Tree Fungicides Extract Patents
... giving hope for a rebalancing of powers between public and private interests.
A third pillar, civil society is emerging …
85% of worldpopulation
High income(>9‘000 USD/Y)
Low/middle income
78% of global GDP
22% of global
GDP
15% of world
population
BOP
TOP
BOP and World Economic Output
In the North:
increasing more resource intensive lifestyle
In the South: fast growing population and increasing more humans, gaining the lifestyle of the North
Two explosive effects of Growth
4-5 Billion
5 Billion
Globalisation paves the way for a world-wide middle class prosperity of five billion people
Resources Intenseness 2050
Limits to Growth - Club of Rome
• It is too late for sustainable development, as that term is commonly understood.
• Negotiating a peaceful, equitable, transition to a much lower footprint will require new technologies, but they are not enough.
• The key problem is short-term thinking• If the planning time horizon can be
extended, many of the governance,social, and ethical problems will be solved more easily.
Four Main Points
Resources
Population
Pollution
Industrial OutputFood
Sustainable Development
Level at the timeLimits to Growth
was first published
World Population
Year
Level at the timeLimits to Growth
was first published
Industrial Production
Index of World Metal Use
29
Resources
Population
Pollution
Industrial Output
Food
Overshoot and Collapse
30
Year
Global Ecological FootprintOne
Indexof Oversho
ot
Num
ber o
f Ear
ths
Req
uire
d
The role of technical advancements
The resource productivity has to increase by factor 10 in this century
• Increasing Eco-Efficiency / Dematerialisation of the World Economy to a factor of 10 in 50 – 100 years.
• With chronicle increasing synchronism of the Gross National Product (GNP) to a factor of 10 in the same time period
The double factor 10
The Rebound-EffectIncreasing use of materials despite dematerialisation
The Advancement Trap
Equity-Situation today
80:20 320:680
100 1000
2005 2050 - 2100The Future Formula
80 von 100
Ø 4
20 von 100 Ø 0,25
100
share
GNP
North 20% South 80%1,2 6,3 Billion People
at a per capita ratio of 16:1 between North and
South
Equity < 12,5%
2000
World-wide pattern of Distribution
world-wide with simultaneous considerable sustainable growth (per year: North 2.8% South 8%)
320 von 1000
Ø 1,83680 von 1000 Ø 0,94
1000
share
GNP
Norden 19,4%
Süden 80,6%1,75
9 Billion People
320
at a per capita ratio of 2:1 between North and South
Equity about 50%
2050 - 2100
Change of the Distribution Ratio
Which future?
Free trade and deregulation as meta-philosophy
Consequences • Free riding with CO2 emissions • War for water• Even more people dying of starvation• Even more displacement
≈15 %Continuation of a Global Laissez-faire
≈15 %
Recource Dictatorship – rich against poor
Free trade and deregulation as meta-philosophy•Grandfather style solutions •Equal treatment of the Un-equal/no equal chance •„plunderer process“ would be legalised, •where applicable, political achievement •Green card used as form of taking advantage•terror as answer / state counter measures •(State terror as an option)•depredation of the civil freedom•(„Chip in every brain“)
≈50 %
Unequal treatment of unequal starting positionsas a form of true equality of opportunite
• The EU enlargement processes • Montreal Protocol • Co-financing of adaptation of standards• Model of the Marshall Plan after WWII• Sustainability • Global Contract • Global Marshall Plan
Eco-Social Market Economy
≈35 %
Vision
• We are all in the same boat
• Civil Society, Business, Politics, Media, Science, all Religions, Cultures - together we may solve the enormous challenges
• Global collective intelligence may lead to a Global Consciousness
to reach a better world order system
The Global Marshall Plan intends to implement the UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Those include:
• Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/ day • Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children• all children complete a full course of primary education • Investing in reproductive healthcare • Providing global, public goods, such as:
- Human dignity for all - Worldwide security
Goals of a Global Marshall Plan
MDG 2: Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/ day in 2040
MDG5: Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children in Latinamerica in 2010in Asia in 2030in Africa in 2165
MDG-Realisation under todays Conditions
As Financial volume, an additional international allowance of 120 Billion US$ would be needed yearly, over the time period 2008-2015.
≈0,41 % Gross National Product (GNP)
Sources: UN-Zedillo ReportWhite Paper Minister Gordon BrownGeorge Soros
Altogether, this is in addition to the present stand of approximately 980 billion US $
Appropriation Requirements
Tobin-Tax0,1 ‰ / 0,2 ‰ (estimated reduction of the markets by ≈ 300/200 Trillion US$per year ) 30/40 Billion US$
IMF Special Drawing Rights Per year in favour of the developing countries 30/40 Billion US$
WTO TERRA-Tax0,35 % / 0,5 % 30/40 Billion US$
Cerosine Tax
Raising Funds
Proposal of the Global Marshall Plan Initiative:
Implement the UN-Millennium Goals through intelligent alliance of the international regime
WTO, IMF, WB, ILO, UNEP, UNSCO
Under the patronage of the UN und with the integration of Organisations such as:
UNDP, WIPO, …
Implementation
New forms of appropriation of funds directed to thegrassroots level, while at the same time fightingcorruption
• Education• Microcredit• Renewable Energies• .• .• .• .
Effective Use of Funds
Network for a World in Balance
• integrative organisational platform • bringing together a broad alliance of
positive energy from politics, business, science, and civil society
• interlinking of a plurality of organizations and individuals which at the same time gathers a broad expertise
• based on core demands for a fairer globalization
Global Collective Intelligence
10.000 separated centersmultiplying each to 10.000 people/brains
100 Million brains around the globe willshare the same ideal
Change the World Order System
Bottum-up Enlighenment
• Books 250.000 / year• Presentations 1.000 / year• Website 250.000 / year• Contributions of authors 200 / year• Flyer 500.000 / year• Media 300 / year
– TV (Talkshows, Spots), Walls, Print, Radio,…• Audio/ Video starting 2006
– Download, DVD, …
Global Marshall Plan Initiative TreffenUlm, 24.-25 Juni 2005
Global Marshall Plan Initiative TreffenUlm, 24.-25 Juni 2005
Top-Down Campaign 2007
Germany may put the Global Marshal Plan on the Agenda of EU and G8
“Balance-the-World-Campaign” similar to “Make-Poverty-History”
Integrating and focussing activities of of many organizations of civil societies, business, politics of different countriesof many celebrities
Balance-the-World-Conference
Very Young Team Small Amazon
250.000 Bookscreate• Awareness• Supporters• Partners• Donors• 40% of our Financial Budget• make a lot of work
Mahatma Gandhi
„Be the chance you want!“
What can you do?
• Support with your activity globalmarshallplan.org• Mention the Initiative in your publications, books• Make Presentations• Support the Initiative by Position Papers • Inform Organizations about us and other way• Use Keywords like “Balance”, Eco-Social Market-
Economy”, • Create new cognitive frames
Victor Hugo
„There is nothing as strong
in this world
as an idea whose time has come“