Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Jordan’s Nuclear Power Programme:
SMR Assessment and Costing Issues in Jordan
Oct 3rd , 2019
Rakan AyoubJordan Atomic Energy Commission
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Jordan’s Country Profile
- Total Area: 89,213 Km2
- Sea Port: Aqaba
- Coastline: 26 Km
- Population: 9.956 million (2016)*60% (15- 64) 35% (below 15)
- Climate: Mediterranean & Arid Desert
- GDP: $42.29 billion (2018)*
- Per Capita: $4,247 (2018)*
- GDP Growth: 1.94% (2018)*
- GDP Growth: 2.2% - 2.6% f (2019-2020+)*
* WORLD BANKf WORLD BANK - Forecasted
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Generated Energy by Fuel
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GW
h
NG HFO LFO Renewable Imp. Electricity
Gas Interruption
LNG Terminal
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Generating Plants Capacity [MW]
11.89%
55.21%1.18%
16.00%
7.31%
8.18%0.24%
Steam TurbinesGas Turbines CCGas Turbines SCDiesel EnginesWindPVHydro
Total: 5088 MW
2018
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Available and Committed Capacities versus the Electricity Median Load Forecast (OLD)
0 0 0 0 0
561
821
1200
1539
1832
2100
2670
3045
3634
3974
4336
4721
5095
5490
5908
6352
6839
7740
8579
9151
10138
10783
11754
12846
14022
14824
15676
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20242025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040M
W
Existing & Committed Capacity Capacity Shortage Peak Load
e
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
MW
Conventional Coincident Renewable Gap Load
166409
663931
11671413
24052672
29513535
42444944
52725613
59707640
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
MW
Gap
Jordan Power Balance (Updated) (2017-2040)
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Available Areas and Sites
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Amra Region
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Sites for Majdal
3 Candidate Areas 6 Candidate Sites
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Aqaba North
Region 3
Aqaba East
Sites for Aqaba
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Siting Activities Update
Plant Design Specific
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Project targeted for implementation past 2030
Perform technical & economic assessment to down-select to the most viable and suitable SMR options;
Conduct detailed feasibility studies on the short-listed SMRs.
Assess the Feasibility Studies and select a preferred technology vendor by end or year.
Large Reactor (1000 MWe) SMR
Parallel Tracks
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
SMRs in Consideration ACP-100 HTR-PM SMART RITM-200 NuScale Xe-100
Chinese iPWR
• 125MWe/ module
• 0.3 g seismicity
• 2 passive safety
trains
• 24 month refueling
cycle
Chinese HTR
• 105MWe/ module
• 0.3 g seismicity
• Passive (inherent)
and active safety
trains
• Online refueling
South Korean iPWR
• 110MWe/ module
• 0.3 g seismicity
• 4 passive safety
trains
• 24 month refueling
cycle
Russian iPWR
• 52MWe/ module
• 0.3 g seismicity
• 2 safety trains (passive
and active)
• 24 month refueling
cycle
American iPWR
• 60MWe/ module
• 0.5 g seismicity
• 2 passive safety trains
• 24 month refueling
cycle
American HTR
• 75MWe/ module
• 0.3 g seismicity
• 4 passive (inherent)
safety trains
• Online refueling
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Matrix Assessment CriteriaFollowing is a detailed Assessment Criteria Matrix:
General ( meeting current international licenseability requirements, areas of risks, vendor and owner responsibilities, etc.)
Design ( design lifetime, efficiency, design adaptation to Jordan’s environment and site characteristics, cooling, foot print and plant layout, etc)
Operation and maintenance (refueling outages, regular maintenance, staffing for operation and maintenance, etc.)
Construction (Construction period, approach of modular construction and assembly, manufacturing capabilities, transportation of heavy equipment, etc.)
Reactor performance (Availability, efficiency, load follow capability, etc.) Nuclear Safety (Defense in depth, operational safety, internal and external hazards,
passive safety features, grace period, CDF, LERF, etc.) Fuel cycle, waste management and non-proliferation (Nuclear Fuel design and safety,
SNF pool design and capacity, fuel handling system to deal with failed fuel elements, experience in fuel supply, experience in waste management and reduction of waste, etc)
Licensing and operating experience ( proven design, compliance with IAEA safety standards, reference design, etc.)
Vendor long term commitment (vendor readiness, localization, etc.) Economic (Capex, O&M, LCOE)
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Key Factor EvaluationKey Factor 1 2 3
General Safety Design Criteria
Exclusion Zone
Seismic
Aircraft Crash
Fukushima Dai-ichi Lessons
Digital I&C Systems
Licensing & Design Certification
Fuel Supply and Security
Back End of the Fuel Cycle
Radioactive Waste Management
Non-proliferation
Thermal Efficiency
Operability & Maintainability (including availability)
Cooling Water Design
Vendor Long Term Sustainability
Economic
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Overall Evaluation
Weight 1 Weight 2
Technical 80% 70%
Economic 20% 30%
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Economic Evaluation ApproachEconomic Evaluation process: Detailed review of Capital Cost
and adjustments.
Adjusted Capital Cost input toLCOE.
Technical Evaluation input forFuel and O&M prepared forLCOE analysis.
Sensitivity and Risks.
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
The next phase will be the preparation of a FeasibilityStudies (FS) based on the selected technologies anddetailed information provided including project specificinformation prepared jointly.
Following detailed Technical and Economic Analysis/FS,one technology will be selected to move on with detaileddiscussions and negotiations for deployment.
As per the results of the Assessment and FS, aJustification of Investment analysis will be made toproceed forward with the technology to deployment.
Technology Assessment (1)
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Next Steps
Finalize Technical Evaluation
Conduct Economic & Financial Assessment
Prepare Feasibility Report
Select Preferred Technology Provider
Justification of Investment
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Project Structure Proposal
PROJECT COMPANY
Main Contractor ()
Jordanian Party
Vendor
Operation and Maintenance
Regulator (EMRC)
Lenders
Fuel Supply
Water Supply(MOWI)
Finan
cing Equity
PPA
Water Agreement
Fuel Agreement
O&M Agreements
Electricity off-taker (NEPCO)
Permits and Licenses
EPCContract
Equity
(Sub-Contractor)
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Required Rate of Return
Discussions are currently being held with potential investors on the Required Rate of Returns acceptable to parties for the Project.
The project returns should be attractive to both the project sponsors and potential third party investors so that they can invest in the project
The price of electricity produced taking into consideration all the economics and financial factors should be competitive to the off-taker (the market).
The project long term viability and success is determined by finding the right balance between the two variables.
The Government of Jordan as a partner, mitigates some of the project risks and exposures. Discussions on optimal Rate of Return and Price of Electricity are ongoing.
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Security Package (1)Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
Duration: Up to the Agreed termCoverage: 100% of the Plant outputTerm: Take-or-PayGuarantees: Government of Jordan Exchange Rate: Stable exchange rate (PPA)Inflation: PPA price indexed with local and foreign inflation
rates.
Tax Regime
Incentives: Attractive Tax Incentives(Similar to existing IPPs and Renewable Projects)
Water Supply
The GoJ will guarantee the source of water for operation during the lifetime of the project.
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Security Package (2)Legal and Regulatory Framework
Regulations: Comply with IAEA Guidelines, country of origin, and international best practice
Laws: The GoJ will update required laws to accommodate NPP accordingly
Import/Export: The GoJ will update import/export controls accordingly to allow implementation of NPP
Stability of Law: The GoJ guarantees stability of law during the lifetime of the project
Non-Discrimination: The GoJ guarantees that there will be no discrimination against NPP in future laws and regulations.
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Security Package (3)Legal and Regulatory Framework
Foreign Currency: The Project Company (as per the law) will be extended all ease in foreign currency transactions for their operations.
Force Majeure
Political Force The investors and lenders will be protected against Majeure (PFM): any local PFM.
Natural Force Balanced risk allocation between parties during NFM. Majeure (NFM):
Any new investment laws that are beneficial for the project will be applied.
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Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
Thank You
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